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At least 955 records · Page 53

A Comprehensive Chandra Study of the Disk Wind in the Black Hole Candidate 4U 1630-472

The mechanisms that drive disk winds are a window into the physical processes that underlie the disk. Stellar-mass black holes are an ideal setting in which to explore these mechanisms, in part because their outbursts span a broad range in mass accretion rate. We performed a spectral analysis of the disk wind found in six Chandra/HETG observations of the black hole candidate 4U 1630−472, covering a range of luminosities over two distinct spectral states. We modeled both wind absorption and extended wind re-emission components using PION, a selfconsistent photoionized absorption model. In all but one case, two photoionization zones were required in order to obtain acceptable fits. Two independent constraints on launching radii, obtained via the ionization parameter formalism and the dynamical broadening of the re-emission, helped characterize the geometry of the wind. The innermost wind components (r ≃ 10(sup 2-3)GM/c(exp 2)) tend toward small volume filling factors, high ionization, densities up to n ≃ 10(sup 15-16) cm(exp -3), and outflow velocities of ∼0.003c. These small launching radii and large densities require magnetic driving, as they are inconsistent with numerical and analytical treatments of thermally driven winds. Outer wind components (r ≃ 10(exp 5)GM/c(exp 2)) are significantly less ionized and have filling factors near unity. Their larger launching radii, lower densities (n ≃ 10(exp 12) cm(exp -3)), and outflow velocities (∼0.0007c) are nominally consistent with thermally driven winds. The overall wind structure suggests that these components may also be part of a broader MHD outflow and perhaps better described as magneto-thermal hybrid winds.

Black hole physics↗

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A comparison of the radial distribution of molecular gas and non-thermal radio continuum in spiral disks

The present study includes 65 spiral galaxies selected from the Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory (FCRAO) Extragalactic CO Survey for which the major axis distributions of CO emission and 1.49 GHz radio continuum emission are well determined. The radial distribution of the CO emission has been measured with the FCRAO at positions along the major axis that are spaced by one half power beam width (HPBW) (45 seconds). The radial profile of the 1.49 GHz radio continuum emission was constructed by determining the radio emission at the location of the CO measurements from the 1.49 GHz maps of Condon (1987). Large, greater than a factor of ten, radially decreasing gradients in the star formation efficiency are observed for a small percentage, approx. 10 percent, of the spirals in this sample. The majority of spirals, however, are associated with small gradients in the star formation efficiency that do not systematically increase or decrease with radius. That the star formation efficiency does not systematically decrease with radius tends to argue against a global dynamical mechanism, such as a spiral density wave, for being the dominant mechanism triggering disk star formation for the majority of spirals in this sample. The results tend to support the view that the star formation in spiral disks is dominated by a local process that depends more on the molecular cloud properties than the dynamical structure of a galaxy.

Devereux, Nicholas A.↗

Structure and Dynamics of the Quiet Solar Chromosphere

The grant supported research on the structure of the quiet, nonmagnetic chromosphere and on wave excitation and propagation in both the nonmagnetic chromosphere and the magnetic network. The work on the structure of the chromosphere culminated in the recognition that between two competing views of the solar chromosphere, older models by Avrett and collaborators (referred to as VAL) and the newer, dynamical model by Carlsson & Stein (referred to as CS), the clear decision is in favor of the older models, and this in spite of the evident lack of physics, which does not include wave motion and oscillations. The contrast between the static VAL models and the dynamical CS model can be stated most succinctly by comparing the temperature variation implied by the VAL models and the temperature fluctuations of the CS model, which are, respectively, of the order of 10% for the VAL model (at heights where hydrogen is 50% ionized) and a factor of 10 (at the upper boundary of their chromospheric model). The huge fluctuations of the CS model have never been observed, whereas the smaller temperature variations of the VAL models are consistent with ground-based and space-based observations. While it should be obvious which model describes the Sun and which one fails, the case is far from settled in the minds of solar physicists. Thus, much educational work remains to be done and, of course, more research to develop arguments that make the case more convincing. The research on waves and oscillations has been based on a unified theory of excitation of acoustic waves in the field-free atmosphere and of transverse and longitudinal waves in magnetic flux tubes located in the magnetic network by noting, first, that impulsive excitation of all these waves in gravitationally stratified media leads to oscillations at the respective cutoff frequencies and, second, that the observed oscillation frequencies in the nonmagnetic and magnetic parts of the chromosphere match corresponding cutoff frequencies in the upper solar photosphere. The dynamical simulations by Carlsson and Stein have been most instructive and of fundamental importance for understanding wave propagation in a stratified medium by their "flaws", the most important of which is an intensity excess at the H2v emission peak in the H line of Ca II, which is surprising since the observed intensity should have been an upper limit to the simulated intensity. The only plausible explanation for a predicted intensity that is higher than observed is that energy is spread horizontally in upward propagation in the Sun, but not in the plane-wave modeling of CS (as well as by almost everyone else). Investigations of the horizontal size of the region disturbed by the upward-propagating shock in the acoustic-wave propagation implies that the waves in H2v bright-point oscillations emanate from a point source with a diameter corresponding to the width of an intergranular lane, about 100 km, and reach a size of about 4000 km in the upper layers of the chromosphere. Linear, analytic modeling of waves emanating from a point source in a stratified atmosphere shows that the upward-expanding propagation channel does not have sharp boundaries and that the shape of the wave front depends on the order of the wave behind the initial pulse. Otherwise, the behavior of the linear waves resembles that of the nonlinear shock waves observed in the Sun. Research that needs to be done to firm up the conclusions reached above concerns the numerical simulations of nonlinear waves and oscillations in a three-dimensional stratified atmosphere with impulsive excitation, and observations linking directly the horizontal size of the disturbed area in upward propagation to individual waves.

Kalkofen, Wolfgang↗

Unraveling Enhanced Superconductivity in Single-Layer FeSe through Substrate Surface Terminations

Single-layer FeSe on SrTiO 3 (001) substrates shows a superconducting transition temperature much higher than that of bulk FeSe, which has been attributed to factors such as electron doping, interfacial electron–phonon coupling, and electron correlations. To pinpoint the primary driver, we grew single-layer FeSe films on SrTiO 3 (001) substrates with coexisting TiO 2 and SrO surface terminations. Scanning tunneling spectroscopy revealed a larger superconducting gap (17.0 meV) on the TiO 2 -termination than on the SrO-termination (10.5 meV). Tunneling spectroscopy also showed a larger work function on the SrO surface, resulting in reduced charge transfer to FeSe, as confirmed by angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy. Scanning transmission electron microscopy further revealed distinctive interfacial atomic-scale structures, with the Se–Fe–Se tetrahedral angle changing from 109.5° on the SrO-termination to 104.9° on the TiO 2 -termination. Compared to dynamical mean field theory calculations, our results indicate that enhanced superconductivity in single-layer FeSe/TiO 2 arises from optimal electron correlations, in addition to sufficient charge transfer from the substrate.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Infrasound and Gravity Waves Over the Andes Observed by a Pressure Sensor on Board a Stratospheric Balloon

The study of infrasound (acoustic) and gravity waves sources and propagation in the atmosphere of a planet gives us precious insight on atmosphere dynamics, climate, and even internal structure. The implementation of modern pressure sensors with high rate sampling on stratospheric balloons is improving their study. In our work we analyzed the data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ultra Long Duration Balloon mission (16 May to 30 June 2016). Here, we focus on the balloon's transit of the Andes Mountains. We detected gravity waves that are associated to troposphere convective activity and mountain waves. An increase of the horizontal wavelengths from 50 to 70 km with increasing distance to the mountains is favoring the presence of mountain waves. We also report on the detection of infrasounds generated by the mountains in the 0.01–0.1 Hz range with a pressure amplitude increase by a factor 2 relative background signal. Besides, we characterized the decrease of microbaroms power when the balloon was flying away from the ocean coast. These observations suggest, in a way similar to microseisms for seismometers, that microbaroms are the main background noise sources recorded in the stratosphere even far from the ocean sources. Finally, we observed a broadband signal above the Andes, between 0.45 and 2 Hz, probably associated with a thunderstorm. The diversity of geophysical phenomena captured in less than a day of observation stresses the interest of high rate pressure sensors on board long-duration balloon missions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anti-Icing Coatings using Ionomer Film Layer Structuring

This research effort examined the application of Nafion polymers in alcohol solvents as an anti-ice surface coating, as a mixture with hydrophilic polymers and freezing point depressant salt systems. Co-soluble systems of Nafion, polymer and salt were applied using dip coating methods to create smooth films for frost observation over a Peltier plate thermal system in ambient laboratory conditions. Cryo-DSC was applied to examine freezing events of the Nafion-surfactant mixtures, but the sensitivity of the measurement was insufficient to determine frost behavior. Collaborations with the Fog Chamber at Sandia-Albuquerque, and in environmental SAXS measurements with CINT-LANL were requested but were not able to be performed under the research duration. Since experimental characterization of these factors is difficult to achieve directly, computational modeling was used to guide the scientific basis for property improvement. Computational modeling was performed to improve understanding of the dynamic association between ionomer side groups and added molecules and deicing salts. The polyacrylic acid in water system was identified at the start of the project as a relevant system for exploring the effect of varying counterions on the properties of fully deprotonated polyacrylic acid (PAA) in the presence of water. Simulations were modeled with four different counterions, two monovalent counterions (K+ and Na+) and two divalent counterions (Ca2+ and Mg2+). The wt% of PAA in these systems was varied from ~10 to 80 wt% PAA for temperatures from 250K to 400K. In the second set of simulations, the interpenetration of water into a dry PAA film was studied for Na+ or Ca2+ counterions for temperatures between 300K and 400K. The result of this project is a sprayable Nafion film composite which resists ice nucleation at -20 °C for periods of greater than three hours. It is composed of Nafion polymer, hydrophilic polyethylene oxide polymer and CaCl2 anti-ice crosslinker. Durability and field performance properties remain to be determined.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Additive Manufacturing of Controlled Porous Elastomeric Nanocomposites for Enhanced Sensing Function

Sensors manufactured using piezoresistive elastomeric nanocomposites have a wide range of applications in many fields such as structural health monitoring, robotics, and biomedical industries. Additive manufacturing of these sensors, achieved using Direct Ink Writing (DIW), has provided numerous advantages including increased sensitivity and the fabrication of complex geometry. However, solid sensors manufactured either additively or using conventional methods, display a greater level of hysteresis, especially at strains higher than 10%, which limits their sensitivity. The solid sensors also display a greater level of piezoresistive relaxation where the resistance change with time either in a static or dynamic loading environment. Porosity can be introduced in the form of varying infill patterns and densities to reduce bulk material effects. In this paper, a lattice structure with four infill densities are investigated, and the samples are printed using a grid infill pattern. The fabricated samples are characterized using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) to validate the microstructural features and layer bonding. The pressure-sensing capability of each sensor is investigated using cyclic compression loading at various strain levels. Sensing results show that an increase in sensitivity, as well as a decrease in hysteresis with an increase in porosity, compared to solid samples (100% in-fill). The highest porosity was measured to be 62.3% with a corresponding 112% increase in the gauge factor compared to the solid bulk. These results indicate that introducing porosity using DIW is a sensible strategy to improve the piezoresistive performance of nanocomposites and to allow for the tunability of sensing capacity in pressure sensors

Sukati, Musa↗

Towards the Ultimate Strength of Medium‐Entropy Alloys Through Pulsed Lasers

The tensile strength of metals at extreme strain rates is a key predictor of their performance in ballistic and structural impact applications. An important experimental method to reach these extreme strain rates is the use of high-amplitude, short-duration pulsed lasers. The Jupiter Laser Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory enabled probing for the first time the mechanical response of several promising High Entropy Alloys at times on the order of nanoseconds (strain rates of ∼10 7 and ∼10 9 s −1 ). The measured strength is in the range of 6 to 10 GPa, ten times the quasistatic value. The mechanisms of plastic deformation and failure were identified and quantified through analysis and molecular dynamics simulation. The reflected wave amplitudes, obtained by VISAR, were used to determine the tensile (spall) stress. The high tensile strength obtained is due to two factors: the strain-rate dependence of plastic flow and the kinetics of void nucleation, growth, and coalescence. The experimental results are compared with an analytical prediction considering both grain-interior and grain-boundary void initiation. Molecular dynamics simulations, conducted at strain rates of 10 8 and 10 9 s −1 , rationalize the experimental results. In conclusion, they provide valuable information about the process of failure evolution, and reveal that grain boundary separation plays a pivotal role in spalling.

Materials science↗

Experimental determination of energy-level structures of diamond silicon-vacancy centers in off-axis magnetic fields

Here, we report the development of an experimental approach to efficiently determine the energy level structure of an individual silicon vacancy (SiV) center in a magnetic field along an arbitrary direction. This approach uses two coupling rates (one each for the ground and the excited states) to characterize the combined effects of static strain and dynamic Jahn-Teller coupling and exploits the fact that orbital Zeeman effects vanish when the magnetic field is normal to the SiV axis. With an analytical expression for the energy level structure of the SiV under a transverse magnetic field, the two coupling rates can be directly derived from two measurements: one on the frequency separation between two spin-conserved transitions and the other on the coherent population trapping resonance of the SiV ground spin states. A detailed comparison between the numerical calculation and the experimental result on the dependence of the spin-conserved splitting on both the amplitude and direction of the magnetic field further reveals unequal orbital magnetic coupling for the ground and excited states, indicating that unequal orbital quenching factors are needed for an accurate description of the SiV energy level structure in a magnetic field.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Seasonal Evolution of Canopy Stomatal Conductance for a Prairie and Maize Field in the Midwestern United States from Continuous Carbonyl Sulfide Fluxes

Abstract There are inherent challenges in scaling stomatal conductance (g ) from leaf to canopy particularly over seasonal time scales when species distribution and canopy structure evolve. We address this gap using carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and CO fluxes from a predominantly C3 prairie and C4 maize field in the midwestern United States. The g derived from OCS fluxes captured a transition in the stomatal limitation on gross primary productivity (GPP) through the growing season as well as seasonally persistent g dynamics such as temperature optimum and a positive response of nighttime g to vapor pressure deficit. Near the termination of the prairie growing season, we observed a decrease in the relative OCS to CO flux that we hypothesize emerged from a rising contribution of C4 plants to productivity. The results show how plot‐scale OCS and CO fluxes can be used as a trace gas diagnostic for transitions in the limiting factors for community GPP.

Berkelhammer, M.↗

Reactive Resonances in N+N2 Exchange Reaction

Rich reactive resonances are found in a 3D quantum dynamics study of the N + N2 exchange reaction using a recently developed ab initio potential energy surface. This surface is characterized by a feature in the interaction region called Lake Eyring , that is, two symmetric transition states with a shallow minimum between them. An L2 analysis of the quasibound states associated with the shallow minimum confirms that the quasibound states associated with oscillations in all three degrees of freedom in Lake Eyring are responsible for the reactive resonances in the state-to-state reaction probabilities. The quasibound states, mostly the bending motions, give rise to strong reasonance peaks, whereas other motions contribute to the bumps and shoulders in the resonance structure. The initial state reaction probability further proves that the bending motions are the dominating factors of the reaction probability and have longer life times than the stretching motions. This is the first observation of reactive resonances from a "Lake Eyring" feature in a potential energy surface.

Wang, Dunyou↗

Assessing the Relationships Between Sensorimotor Biomarkers and Post-Landing Functional Task Performance

Spaceflight drives adaptive changes in healthy individuals appropriate for sensorimotor function in a microgravity environment. These changes are maladaptive for return to earth's gravity. The inter-individual variability of sensorimotor decrements is striking, although poorly understood. The goal of this study is to identify a set of behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic measures that can be used to predict early post-flight performance on a set of sensorimotor tasks. Astronauts are recruited who previously participated in sensorimotor field tests and/or posturography soon after long-duration spaceflight. Behavioral tests include assessments of sensory dependency and adaptability. Visual dependency involves treadmill walking while viewing a moving virtual visual scene. Vestibular thresholds are measured while seated during lateral translations. Proprioception dependency is measured during one-legged stance on a horizontal air-bearing surface. Ground assessment of adaptability is performed (1) during treadmill walking with a virtual linear hallway and a moving walking surface, and (2) during multiple trials of navigating an obstacle course while wearing reversing prisms. The neuroimaging tests will characterize individual differences in regional brain volumes (using Structural MRI) and white matter microstructure (using Diffusion Tensor Imaging) to serve as potential predictors of adaptive capacity. The genetic tests will utilize saliva samples to examine variations in four genes chosen because of their ability to differentiate sensorimotor adaptation ability in a normative population, including Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), Dopamine Receptor D2 (DRD2), Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and the α2-adrenergic receptor. Twenty-one ISS crewmembers have been tested to date, including 6 from this past year after testing resumed post-COVID. This cohort includes 9 first-time fliers, 4F, and mission durations lasting 182 ± 32 days, mean ± std. We are utilizing a combination of three post-flight functional task outcomes: tandem walk, recovery from fall and dynamic posturography. There is considerable variability among the post-flight performance outcomes for the 21 participants to date. Based on a partial sample using an ordinal scale survey, 80% indicated their ability to perform functional tasks were more impacted postflight relative to inflight with 50% indicating they needed to restrict movements for a longer period postflight relative to inflight. While there is a strong association within tests obtained at different R+0 timepoints, by R+24 hr performance on one post-flight test does not necessarily correlate with performance on other post-flight tests. There are apparent relationships between individual measures and specific post-flight outcome measures; however, additional data is needed to draw conclusions. Preliminary statistical analysis indicates combining biomarkers will increase predictive power and this will be explored with future analyses. Our preliminary findings underscore the importance of a comprehensive post-flight test battery including different types of tasks with varying sensory feedback. We expect that understanding the relationships between these sensorimotor biomarkers and post-flight functional task performance will improve both our understanding of the individual variability and our strategy to optimize sensorimotor countermeasures.

S J Wood↗

The zonally averaged circulation, temperature, and compositional structure of the lower thermosphere and variations with geomagnetic activity

A zonally averaged chemical-dynamical model of the thermosphere is used to examine the effect of high-latitude particle and Joule heating on the neutral composition, temperature, and winds at solstice for solar minimum conditions. The meridional circulation forced by solar heating alone is a summer-to-winter flow, with a winter enhancement in atomic oxygen. The high-latitude heat sources drive mean circulation cells that reinforce the solar-driven circulation in the summer hemisphere and oppose this circulation in the winter hemisphere. The changes in wind and temperature caused by the high-latitude heat sources increase the relative concentration of N2 and O2 in the high-latitude upper thermosphere and decrease the O concentration in the high-latitude lower thermosphere. For prolonged moderate levels of geomagnetic activity the peak atomic oxygen density in the polar regions can decrease by factors of 2-3 from geomagnetic quiet conditions.

Roble, R. G.↗

Influence of Cation Size on the Local Atomic Structure and Electronic Properties of Ta Perovskite Oxynitrides

Partial anion substitution in transition metal oxides provides rich opportunities to control and tune physical and chemical properties, for example, combining the merits of oxides and nitrides. In addition, the possibility of resulting anion sublattice order provides a means to target polar and chiral structures based on a wide array of accessible structural archetypes by design. Here, in this work, we investigate the local structures of a family of perovskite tantalum oxynitrides—ATaO 2 N (A = Ba, Sr, and Ca)—using a combination of experimental and theoretical approaches including neutron total scattering, density functional theory (DFT), and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations. We present the first experimental study of chemical short-range order (CSRO) in CaTaO 2 N, confirming local cis N ordering of the anion sub-lattice. Our systematic exploration of a local structure across the A cation size series (from the larger Ba to the smaller Ca) reveals a perovskite motif increasingly distorted with respect to long-range average structures. DFT and AIMD simulations support the observed trends. Overall, structures with cis ordering of the nitrogen anions in each TaO 4 N 2 octahedron are favored over those with trans ordering. With diminishing A cation size, local cis ordering and Ta off-centering play decreasing roles in overall lattice stability, overshadowed by the stabilizing effects of octahedral tilting. The influence of these factors on local dipole formation and frustrated dipole ordering are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Low-Degree Shape of Mercury

The shape of Mercury, particularly when combined with its geoid, provides clues to the planet’s internal structure, thermal evolution, and rotational history. Elevation measurements of the northern hemisphere acquired by the Mercury Laser Altimeter on the MESSENGER spacecraft, combined with 378 occultations of radio signals from the spacecraft in the planet’s southern hemisphere, reveal the low-degree shape of Mercury. Mercury’s mean radius is 2439.36±0.02 km, and there is a 0.14-km offset between the planet’s centers of mass and figure. Mercury is oblate, with a polar radius 1.65 km less than the mean equatorial radius. The difference between the semimajor and semiminor equatorial axes is 1.25 km with the long axis oriented 15° west of Mercury’s dynamically defined principal axis. Mercury’s geoid is also oblate and elongated, but it deviates from a sphere by a factor of 10 less than Mercury’s shape, implying compensation of elevation variations on a global scale.

Mercury↗

Factors shaping the evolution of electronic documentation systems

The main goal is to prepare the space station technical and managerial structure for likely changes in the creation, capture, transfer, and utilization of knowledge. By anticipating advances, the design of Space Station Project (SSP) information systems can be tailored to facilitate a progression of increasingly sophisticated strategies as the space station evolves. Future generations of advanced information systems will use increases in power to deliver environmentally meaningful, contextually targeted, interconnected data (knowledge). The concept of a Knowledge Base Management System is emerging when the problem is focused on how information systems can perform such a conversion of raw data. Such a system would include traditional management functions for large space databases. Added artificial intelligence features might encompass co-existing knowledge representation schemes; effective control structures for deductive, plausible, and inductive reasoning; means for knowledge acquisition, refinement, and validation; explanation facilities; and dynamic human intervention. The major areas covered include: alternative knowledge representation approaches; advanced user interface capabilities; computer-supported cooperative work; the evolution of information system hardware; standardization, compatibility, and connectivity; and organizational impacts of information intensive environments.

Dede, Christopher J.↗

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗