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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of survey spatial variability on galaxy redshift distributions and the cosmological 3 × 2-point statistics for the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry data set degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-z estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i\lt 25.3$ for 10 yr LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd i-band depth for 1-yr (Y1), 3-yr (Y3), and 5-yr (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10\!-\!40~{{\rm per\ cent}}$ at extreme depth values. Using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times 2$ pt analysis, and assess the impact on cosmological parameters via a Fisher forecast. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, and non-uniformity needs to be mitigated below 3 per cent to recover unbiased cosmological constraints. There is little impact on galaxy–shear and shear–shear power spectra, given the expected LSST Y3 noise.

cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genomic fingerprints of the world’s soil ecosystems

Despite the explosion of soil metagenomic data, we lack a synthesized understanding of patterns in the distribution and functions of soil microorganisms. These patterns are critical to predictions of soil microbiome responses to climate change and resulting feedbacks that regulate greenhouse gas release from soils. To address this gap, we assay 1,512 manually curated soil metagenomes using complementary annotation databases, read-based taxonomy, and machine learning to extract multidimensional genomic fingerprints of global soil microbiomes. Our objective is to uncover novel biogeographical patterns of soil microbiomes across environmental factors and ecological biomes with high molecular resolution. We reveal shifts in the potential for (i) microbial nutrient acquisition across pH gradients; (ii) stress-, transport-, and redox-based processes across changes in soil bulk density; and (iii) greenhouse gas emissions across biomes. We also use an unsupervised approach to reveal a collection of soils with distinct genomic signatures, characterized by coordinated changes in soil organic carbon, nitrogen, and cation exchange capacity and in bulk density and clay content that may ultimately reflect soil environments with high microbial activity. Genomic fingerprints for these soils highlight the importance of resource scavenging, plant-microbe interactions, fungi, and heterotrophic metabolisms. Across all analyses, we observed phylogenetic coherence in soil microbiomes—more closely related microorganisms tended to move congruently in response to soil factors. Collectively, the genomic fingerprints uncovered here present a basis for global patterns in the microbial mechanisms underlying soil biogeochemistry and help beget tractable microbial reaction networks for incorporation into process-based models of soil carbon and nutrient cycling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time Dilated Bundt Cake Analysis of PV Output [Poster]

We present a novel method for modeling time-dependent statistics in the power signal generated by a photovoltaic (PV) system. Our white-box machine learning method is interpretable and auditable, based on principles of multiperiodic basis functions and convex optimization. Our proposed method of time dilating the daily signal to remove night time values results in a novel representation of PV power signals, evocative of a ‘Bundt cake’. The proposed model describes the marginal distribution of power output as a function of date and time. The resulting probabilistic model of a PV system can be used to perform a variety of tasks, and here, we demonstrate the application of clear sky detection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Design Methodology and its Application to the Design of an Umbilical Retract Mechanism

A lot has been learned from past experience with structural and machine element failures. The understanding of failure modes and the application of an appropriate design analysis method can lead to improved structural and machine element safety as well as serviceability. To apply Probabilistic Design Methodology (PDM), all uncertainties are modeled as random variables with selected distribution types, means, and standard deviations. It is quite difficult to achieve a robust design without considering the randomness of the design parameters which is the case in the use of the Deterministic Design Approach. The US Navy has a fleet of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. An umbilical plug joins the missile to the submarine in order to provide electrical and cooling water connections. As the missile leaves the submarine, an umbilical retract mechanism retracts the umbilical plug clear of the advancing missile after disengagement during launch and retrains the plug in the retracted position. The design of the current retract mechanism in use was based on the deterministic approach which puts emphasis on factor of safety. A new umbilical retract mechanism that is simpler in design, lighter in weight, more reliable, easier to adjust, and more cost effective has become desirable since this will increase the performance and efficiency of the system. This paper reports on a recent project performed at Tennessee State University for the US Navy that involved the application of PDM to the design of an umbilical retract mechanism. This paper demonstrates how the use of PDM lead to the minimization of weight and cost, and the maximization of reliability and performance.

Onyebueke, Landon↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Update on the Geothermal Data Repository's Data Standards and Pipelines: Geospatial Data and Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data

The Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Data Repository (GDR) team has implemented data standards and automated data pipelines for the following data types: 1) drilling data, 2) geospatial datasets, and 3) DAS data. An additional data pipeline is proposed for stimulation data. These data standards and pipelines are intended to improve the real-world applicability of geothermal machine learning outputs through improving the quality of data. More specifically, through standardizing high-value datasets, the GDR is reducing project-specific data curation requirements, allowing more time to be spent on actual research. By automating this process, the burden of standardization is taken off of the user, overall increasing the availability of standardized data. This paper provides an update on the GDR's transition toward data standardization through automated data pipelines and calls for feedback from the community on how we can improve this process.

cloud-optimized↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the location of shear band initiation in a metallic glass

We report atomistic simulation results which indicate that the location of shear banding in a metallic glass (MG) can be ascertained with reasonably high accuracy solely from the undeformed static structure. Correlation is observed between the location of the initiation of shear bands in a simulated MG and the initial distribution of the density of fertile sites (DFS) for stress-driven shear transformations identified a priori based on a deep learning model devised in our recent work. In addition, we demonstrated that one can judge whether a glass is brittle or ductile solely based upon its initial DFS distribution. These validate that shear bands in MG arise from nonlinear instabilities and that the as-quenched glass structure contains inhomogeneities that influence these instabilities. In this study, we also reveal an important subtlety regarding the nondeterministic nature of athermal quasistatic shear simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Software-defined network for end-to-end networked science at the exascale

Domain science applications and workflow processes are currently forced to view the network as an opaque infrastructure into which they inject data and hope that it emerges at the destination with an acceptable Quality of Experience. There is little ability for applications to interact with the network to exchange information, negotiate performance parameters, discover expected performance metrics, or receive status/troubleshooting information in real time. The work presented here is motivated by a vision for a new smart network and smart application ecosystem that will provide a more deterministic and interactive environment for domain science workflows. The Software-Defined Network for End-to-end Networked Science at Exascale (SENSE) system includes a model-based architecture, implementation, and deployment which enables automated end- to-end network service instantiation across administrative domains. An intent based interface allows applications to express their high-level service requirements, an intelligent orchestrator and resource control systems allow for custom tailoring of scalability and real-time responsiveness based on individual application and infrastructure operator requirements. This allows the science applications to manage the network as a first-class schedulable resource as is the current practice for instruments, compute, and storage systems. Deployment and experiments on production networks and testbeds have validated SENSE functions and performance. Emulation based testing verified the scalability needed to support research and education infrastructures. Key contributions of this work include an architecture definition, reference implementation, and deployment. This provides the basis for further innovation of smart network services to accelerate scientific discovery in the era of big data, cloud computing, machine learning and artificial intelligence.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

20 kV Gallium Nitride pn Diode Electro-Magnetic Pulse Arrestor for Grid Reliability (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed vertical Gallium Nitride (GaN) pn diodes under two main thrusts: (1) A focus on relatively higher-voltage devices for use as fast EMP arrestors to protect the electric grid; and (2) A focus on a Foundry effort to establish the manufacturability of relatively lower voltage devices. For the first thrust, the aim was to develop devices that go into avalanche breakdown to clamp the voltage across sensitive grid equipment subject to voltage transients induced by electromagnetic pulses (EMPs). Devices with breakdown voltages exceeding 6.5 kV were achieved, and breakdown times shorter than 1 ns were demonstrated, which is sufficiently fast to protect against the fast component of an EMP-induced signal. Key challenges included the epitaxial growth of thick (50 µm or more), low-doped (low 10 15 cm -3 range) GaN layers comprising the drift regions of the diodes, as well as the design and fabrication of edge termination structures (step-etched junction termination extensions) to prevent premature breakdown. Midway through the project, an additional emphasis was put on large-area, high-current devices, and forward currents of approximately 400 A were achieved in composite devices towards the end of the project. Experimental and theoretical studies of impact ionization and avalanche ruggedness were also conducted. For the second thrust (the Foundry), the focus was primarily on 1.2-kV-class devices, although towards the end of the project outstanding results on 3.3-kV class devices were also achieved. The aim of the Foundry was to develop a high-yield, reliable, and economic vertical GaN pn diode process. The Foundry conducted characterization of incoming epitaxial material and correlated this information with the yield and performance of fully processed devices. Wafer maps of diode characteristics such as forward and reverse current as well as capacitance-voltage curves were measured using auto-probing. Several mask sets comprising different-area devices as well as multiple edge termination designs (implanted junction termination extensions, guard rings, and combinations thereof) were studied, and machine-learning-based approaches were utilized to analyze the data. Packaging and reliability efforts were also undertaken for the Foundry diodes, which are necessary for a viable commercial process.

20KV↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Closing in on Hydrologic Predictive Accuracy: Combining the Strengths of High-Fidelity and Physics-Agnostic Models

Applications of process-based models (PBM) for predictions are confounded by multiple uncertainties and computational burdens, resulting in appreciable errors. A novel modeling framework combining a high-fidelity PBM with surrogate and machine learning (ML) models is developed to tackle these challenges and applied for streamflow prediction. A surrogate model permits high computational efficiency of a PBM solution at a minimum loss of its accuracy. A novel probabilistic ML model partitions the PBM-surrogate prediction errors into reducible and irreducible types, quantifying their distributions that arise due to both explicitly perceived uncertainties (such as parametric) or those that are entirely hidden to the modeler (not included or unexpected). Using this approach, we demonstrate a substantial improvement of streamflow predictive accuracy for a case study urbanized watershed. Such a framework provides an efficient solution combining the strengths of high-fidelity and physics-agnostic models for a wide range of prediction problems in geosciences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning based unfolding of x-ray spectra from filter stack spectrometer data

We demonstrate the application of neural networks to perform x-ray spectra unfolding from data collected by filter stack spectrometers. A filter stack spectrometer consists of a series of filter-detector pairs, where the detectors behind each filter measure the energy deposition through each layer as photo-stimulated luminescence (PSL). The network is trained on synthetic data, assuming x-rays of energies < 1 MeV and of two different distribution functions (Maxwellian and Gaussian) and the corresponding measured PSL values obtained from five different filter stack spectrometer designs. Predicted unfolds of single distributions are near identical reproductions of the ground truth spectra, with differences in the values lower than 20% at the higher energy end in some cases. The neural network has also demonstrated robustness to experimental measurement errors of < 5% and some capability of performing unfolds for linear combinations of the two distributions without previous training. The network can perform unfolds at rates > 1 Hz, ideal for application to some high-repetition-rate systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pushing the Limits of Aquatic Remote Sensing: Synthetic Data and Deep Learning for Fast Inverse Emulation of A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer Model

The inversion of electromagnetic information to physical and biological properties of the water column is a notoriously difficult problem, yet fundamental to our ability of understanding aquatic processes on large time and space scales. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will discuss research integrating advanced biological and radiative modeling, high-end computation, and machine learning to develop a portable global processor for simultaneous retrieval of atmosphere and water optics for diverse aquatic systems from the open and coastal ocean to optically extreme inland waters and harmful algal blooms. We will discuss some of the basic concepts behind the forward modeling approach including DEAP, the novel Distributed Equivalent Algal Populations model, for developing large spectral libraries of aquatic particle optics to aid in our ability to distinguish phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) and inorganic material, as well as other factors which enable comprehensive modeling from the benthos to top-of-atmosphere (TOA). This information is being used to understand how we can leverage next-generation deep learning methods for maximum information retrieval and rapid image processing, while also providing capabilities to identify minimum sensor spectral requirements necessary for certain aquatic applications. Further, I will touch on how we envision this research to enable the aquatic community for science discovery and how we are moving closer towards the capability for high-fidelity global analysis of aquatic ecosystems.

Jeremy Alan Kravitz↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Update on the Geothermal Data Repository's Data Standards and Pipelines: Geospatial Data and Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data: Preprint

cloud-optimized↗

DOE OSTI2026

Illuminating the Material World: Autonomous Microscopy to Understand Order, Disorder, and Everything In Between

Artificial intelligence (AI) holds immense promise for revolutionizing microscopy, yet its widespread adoption has been hindered by challenges ranging from user inexperience to limited model transferability and difficulties in operationalizing machine learning. This presentation showcases our approach to developing practical autonomy for materials discovery, aiming to accelerate the integration of AI into everyday microscopy workflows. As shown in Fig. 1, I will focus on three key areas: understanding order-disorder transitions, quantifying point defects, and achieving truly device-scale microscopy. First, I will demonstrate the power of multi-modal knowledge graphs for integrating diverse microscopy data. By combining imaging, spectroscopy, and diffraction data, these graphs provide a holistic view of material behavior, capturing the intricate relationships between different modalities [1,2]. I will present a case study on how these models illuminate the structural and chemical changes associated with irradiation in oxide thin films, revealing critical insights for designing materials for extreme environments like spaceflight and nuclear energy. Specifically, I will show how multi-modal analysis clarifies the evolution of order-disorder transitions under irradiation, a key factor influencing material performance in these applications. Next, I will address the challenge of quantifying point defects in 2D materials. We demonstrate the application of computer vision and transfer learning to accurately identify and classify various defect types, such as vacancies and substitutional atoms, and to quantify their concentrations. This information is crucial for understanding and tailoring the properties of 2D materials for applications in electronics, optoelectronics, and catalysis. For example, I will show how our models can characterize the topological distribution of point defects in MXene transition metal carbides, providing valuable insights for optimizing their performance in energy storage and separation science. Finally, I will discuss our progress toward autonomous device-scale microscopy [3,4]. We are fundamentally redesigning electron microscopes around the principles of machine reasoning, enabling automation beyond basic tasks like sample navigation and data acquisition to include sophisticated experimental design. This approach paves the way for truly reproducible and massively scaled analysis campaigns. I will emphasize the importance of autonomous microscopy platforms for high-throughput materials discovery and characterization, facilitating the rapid screening of materials for a broad range of applications and accelerating the development of next-generation technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electron Microscopy Approaches to Unraveling the Structure of Amorphous Materials

Determining atomic structures in crystalline materials—where atoms are arranged in rigid, periodic lattices—has been highly successful using probes such as electrons, X-rays, and neutrons. In contrast, amorphous materials, despite their ubiquity and technological importance, remain far more challenging to characterize with comparable accuracy and precision. This review highlights existing, emerging, and potential (scanning) transmission electron microscopy ((S)TEM) techniques for probing short- and medium-range order in amorphous materials. Approaches ranging from high-resolution (S)TEM imaging and selected electron diffraction pattern to four-dimensional STEM (4D-STEM) based pair distribution function, fluctuation electron microscopy, tomography, ptychography, and spectroscopic methods are discussed, emphasizing their ability to provide complementary insights across multiple length scales—from sub-angstrom local environments to nanometer-scale correlations. Here, we further explore the promise of multimodal and correlative strategies, as well as the growing role of machine learning and physics-informed AI in enabling real-time, quantitative interpretation of complex structural signatures. Together, these advances point toward a future where electron microscopy not only reveals the hidden order in amorphous systems but also establishes robust structure–property relationships, paving the way for materials innovation in disordered matter.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of boosted Higgs bosons produced via vector boson fusion or gluon fusion in the H →$ \textrm{b}\overline{\textrm{b}} $ decay mode using LHC proton-proton collision data at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A measurement is performed of Higgs bosons produced with high transverse momentum (p$_{T}$) via vector boson or gluon fusion in proton-proton collisions. The result is based on a data set with a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected in 2016–2018 with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. The decay of a high-p$_{T}$ Higgs boson to a boosted bottom quark-antiquark pair is selected using large-radius jets and employing jet substructure and heavy-flavor taggers based on machine learning techniques. Independent regions targeting the vector boson and gluon fusion mechanisms are defined based on the topology of two quark-initiated jets with large pseudorapidity separation. The signal strengths for both processes are extracted simultaneously by performing a maximum likelihood fit to data in the large-radius jet mass distribution. The observed signal strengths relative to the standard model expectation are $ {4.9}_{-1.6}^{+1.9} $ and $ {1.6}_{-1.5}^{+1.7} $ for the vector boson and gluon fusion mechanisms, respectively. A differential cross section measurement is also reported in the simplified template cross section framework.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep neural network improves the estimation of polygenic risk scores for breast cancer

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate the genetic risk of an individual for a complex disease based on many genetic variants across the whole genome. Here, we compared a series of computational models for estimation of breast cancer PRS. A deep neural network (DNN) was found to outperform alternative machine learning techniques and established statistical algorithms, including BLUP, BayesA, and LDpred. In the test cohort with 50% prevalence, the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) were 67.4% for DNN, 64.2% for BLUP, 64.5% for BayesA, and 62.4% for LDpred. BLUP, BayesA, and LPpred all generated PRS that followed a normal distribution in the case population. However, the PRS generated by DNN in the case population followed a bimodal distribution composed of two normal distributions with distinctly different means. This suggests that DNN was able to separate the case population into a high-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS significantly higher than the control population and a normal-genetic-risk case subpopulation with an average PRS similar to the control population. This allowed DNN to achieve 18.8% recall at 90% precision in the test cohort with 50% prevalence, which can be extrapolated to 65.4% recall at 20% precision in a general population with 12% prevalence. Interpretation of the DNN model identified salient variants that were assigned insignificant p values by association studies, but were important for DNN prediction. These variants may be associated with the phenotype through nonlinear relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Local structure elucidation of tungsten-substituted vanadium dioxide (V$$_{1-x}$$W$$_x$$O$$_2$$)

Abstract Initially, vanadium dioxide seems to be an ideal first-order phase transition case study due to its deceptively simple structure and composition, but upon closer inspection there are nuances to the driving mechanism of the metal-insulator transition (MIT) that are still unexplained. In this study, a local structure analysis across a bulk powder tungsten-substitution series is utilized to tease out the nuances of this first-order phase transition. A comparison of the average structure to the local structure using synchrotron x-ray diffraction and total scattering pair-distribution function methods, respectively, is discussed as well as comparison to bright field transmission electron microscopy imaging through a similar temperature-series as the local structure characterization. Extended x-ray absorption fine structure fitting of thin film data across the substitution-series is also presented and compared to bulk. Machine learning technique, non-negative matrix factorization, is applied to analyze the total scattering data. The bulk MIT is probed through magnetic susceptibility as well as differential scanning calorimetry. The findings indicate the local transition temperature ( $$T_c$$ T c ) is less than the average $$T_c$$ T c supporting the Peierls-Mott MIT mechanism, and demonstrate that in bulk powder and thin-films, increasing tungsten-substitution instigates local V-oxidation through the phase pathway VO $$_2\, \rightarrow$$ 2 → V $$_6$$ 6 O $$_{13} \, \rightarrow$$ 13 → V $$_2$$ 2 O $$_5$$ 5 .

Wilson, Catrina E. (ORCID:0000000173397318)↗