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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Combining Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation for High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Forecast

Forecasting ambient PM2.5 concentrations with spatiotemporal coverage is key to alerting decision-makers of pollution episodes and preventing detrimental public exposure, especially in regions with limited ground air monitoring stations. The existing methods either rely on chemical transport models (CTMs) to forecast spatial distribution of PM2.5 with nontrivial uncertainty or statistical algorithms to forecast PM2.5 concentration time-series at air monitoring locations without continuous spatial coverage. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 forecast framework by combining the robust Random Forest algorithm with a publicly accessible global CTM forecast product – NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System “Composition Forecasting” (GEOS-CF), providing spatiotemporally continuous PM2.5 concentration forecasts for the next five days at a 1-km spatial resolution. Our forecast experiment was conducted for a region in Central China including the populous and polluted Fenwei Plain. The forecast for the next two days had overall validation R2 of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively; the R2 was around 0.5 for the following three forecast days. Spatial cross-validation showed similar validation metrics. Our forecast model, with validation normalized mean bias close to zero, substantially reduced the large biases in GEOS-CF. The proposed framework requires minimal computational resources compared to running CTMs at urban scales, enabling near-real-time PM2.5 forecast in resource-restricted environments.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2023

Feeder Power Disaggregation: A Data-Efficient Matrix Completion Approach: Preprint

This paper presents a data-driven algorithm for the feeder power disaggregation problem in distribution systems. Leveraging spatio-temporal power patterns in residential homes, residential power is discomposed into three components: sparse-switching loads, periodic loads, and photovoltaic generation, using two sparse matrices and a rank-one matrix. The matrix completion process is data-efficient because of the matrix sparsity and low rankness, along with the use of power system models. The proposed approach is tested using real-world residential datasets on a 33-bus distribution system, demonstrating accurate power disaggregation with efficient matrix completion.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme Risk Mitigation in Reinforcement Learning using Extreme Value Theory

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modelling highly rare risk events (rewards) that could potentially lead to catastrophic outcomes. These infrequent occurrences present a formidable challenge for data-driven methods aiming to capture such risky events accurately. While risk-aware RL techniques do exist, they suffer from high variance estimation due to the inherent data scarcity. Our work proposes to enhance the resilience of RL agents when faced with very rare and risky events by focusing on refining the predictions of the extreme values predicted by the state-action value distribution. To achieve this, we formulate the extreme values of the state-action value function distribution as parameterized distributions, drawing inspiration from the principles of extreme value theory (EVT). We propose an extreme value theory based actor-critic approach, namely, Extreme Valued Actor-Critic (EVAC) which effectively addresses the issue of infrequent occurrence by leveraging EVT-based parameterization. Importantly, we theoretically demonstrate the advantages of employing these parameterized distributions in contrast to other risk-averse algorithms. Our evaluations show that the proposed method outperforms other risk averse RL algorithms on a diverse range of benchmark tasks, each encompassing distinct risk scenarios.

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗
NASA NTRS2005

Use of Dual-wavelength Radar for Snow Parameter Estimates

Use of dual-wavelength radar, with properly chosen wavelengths, will significantly lessen the ambiguities in the retrieval of microphysical properties of hydrometeors. In this paper, a dual-wavelength algorithm is described to estimate the characteristic parameters of the snow size distributions. An analysis of the computational results, made at X and Ka bands (T-39 airborne radar) and at S and X bands (CP-2 ground-based radar), indicates that valid estimates of the median volume diameter of snow particles, D(sub 0), should be possible if one of the two wavelengths of the radar operates in the non-Rayleigh scattering region. However, the accuracy may be affected to some extent if the shape factors of the Gamma function used for describing the particle distribution are chosen far from the true values or if cloud water attenuation is significant. To examine the validity and accuracy of the dual-wavelength radar algorithms, the algorithms are applied to the data taken from the Convective and Precipitation-Electrification Experiment (CaPE) in 1991, in which the dual-wavelength airborne radar was coordinated with in situ aircraft particle observations and ground-based radar measurements. Having carefully co-registered the data obtained from the different platforms, the airborne radar-derived size distributions are then compared with the in-situ measurements and ground-based radar. Good agreement is found for these comparisons despite the uncertainties resulting from mismatches of the sample volumes among the different sensors as well as spatial and temporal offsets.

Liao, Liang↗
NASA NTRS1988

On the problem of modeling for parameter identification in distributed structures

Structures are often characterized by parameters, such as mass and stiffness, that are spatially distributed. Parameter identification of distributed structures is subject to many of the difficulties involved in the modeling problem, and the choice of the model can greatly affect the results of the parameter identification process. Analogously to control spillover in the control of distributed-parameter systems, identification spillover is shown to exist as well and its effect is to degrade the parameter estimates. Moreover, as in modeling by the Rayleigh-Ritz method, it is shown that, for a Rayleigh-Ritz type identification algorithm, an inclusion principle exists in the identification of distributed-parameter systems as well, so that the identified natural frequencies approach the actual natural frequencies monotonically from above.

Norris, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A perturbation technique for parameter identification in distributed structures

Structures are often characterized by parameters, such as mass and stiffness, that are spatially distributed. Parameter identification of distributed structures is subject to many of the difficulties involved in the modeling problem, and the choice of the model can greatly affect the results of the parameter identification process. Analogously to control spillover in the control of distributed-parameter systems, identification spillover is shown to exist as well and its effect is to degrade the parameter estimates. Moreover, as in modeling by the Rayleigh-Ritz method, it is shown that, for a Rayleigh-Ritz type identification algorithm, an inclusion principle exists in the identification of distributed-parameter systems as well, so that the identified natural frequencies approach the actual natural frequencies monotonically from above.

Meirovitch, L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the problem of modeling for parameter identification in distributed structures

Structures are often characterized by parameters, such as mass and stiffness, that are spatially distributed. Parameter identification of distributed structures is subject to many of the difficulties involved in the modeling problem, and the choice of the model can greatly affect the results of the parameter identification process. Analogously to control spillover in the control of distributed-parameter systems, identification spillover is shown to exist as well and its effect is to degrade the parameter estimates. Moreover, as in modeling by the Rayleigh-Ritz method, it is shown that, for a Rayleigh-Ritz type identification algorithm, an inclusion principle exists in the identification of distributed-parameter systems as well, so that the identified natural frequencies approach the actual natural frequencies monotonically from above.

Norris, Mark A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Consensus and Disagreement in Atmospheric River Detection: ARTMIP Global Catalogues

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) constitute an important mechanism for water vapor transport, but research on their characteristics and impacts has relied on a diverse assortment of detection methodologies, complicating comparisons. The AR Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides a platform for comparing such methodologies, but analysis of ARTMIP catalogues has heretofore focused primarily on specific regions. Here we investigate ARs as detected by an ensemble of algorithms with global coverage. We find that the frequency of occurrence of the majority–consensus ARs produces a robust distribution, featuring five hot spots over the extratropical oceans, against which we compare individual algorithm results. We further explore the underlying similarities and differences via two case studies of AR evolution. The dominant source of disagreement between detection methodologies globally consists of detections (or lack thereof) of weak features, and the algorithms otherwise tend to agree remarkably well on the footprints of ARs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Distributed Grid Control of Flexible Loads and DERs for Optimized Provision of Synthetic Regulating Reserves

Over the course of this project, we have successfully de-risked our distributed microgrid control architecture by tightly integrating its associated control algorithms into a unified software library, installing the software library on several industrial-grade target hardware platforms, and validating the performance of the resulting microgrid controller in a real-life microgrid. Upon completion of the project, we demonstrated that our distributed control architecture is resilient against (i) failures in control devices, (ii) unreliable communication links, (iii) delays in transmitted data, and (iv) imperfect knowledge of the number of (and state of) generation and load assets in the microgrid. In this final report, we present results from all the milestones that were accomplished over the course of this project.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Distribution System State Estimation Using Pruned Physics-Aware Neural Networks

Realizing complete observability in the three-phase distribution system remains a challenge that hinders the implementation of classic state estimation algorithms. In this paper, a new method, called the pruned physics-aware neural network (P2N2), is developed to improve the voltage estimation accuracy in the distribution system. The method relies on the physical grid topology, which is used to design the connections between different hidden layers of a neural network model. To verify the proposed method, a numerical simulation based on one- year smart meter data of load consumptions for three-phase power flow is developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123-node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classic weighted least squares (WLS). Numerical results show that P2N2 outperforms WLS in terms of data redundancy and estimation accuracy.

distribution system state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracking snowmelt during hydrological surface processes using a distributed hydrological model in a mesoscale basin on the Tibetan Plateau

We report that mountain snowpack is an important water resource for the high altitude and latitude regions where the terrain is complex. However, the snowmelt pathway and its actual contribution to streamflow and soil moisture are rarely reported and remain unclear in such regions. To fill in this knowledge gap, we incorporate a snowmelt pathway tracking algorithm to a high-resolution physics-based distributed-hydrology-soil-vegetation model (DHSVM), to track snowmelt movement and quantify snowmelt contributions in the surface hydrologic processes. A simple reservoir operation scheme is also incorporated in the model. The modified model is applied to a dammed meso-scale watershed in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, China to study the snow and reservoir effects. The results show that annual snow contribution to soil moisture (SC-SM) and snow contribution to streamflow (SC-S) significantly decrease over 1965-2019. At a monthly scale, SC-SM has the largest amplitude at the top soil layer and its peak in the deeper layer lags behind the upper layer, and mean monthly SC-S at all stations show bimodal distributions corresponding to snowfall season. Reservoir regulation has subtle impacts (≤2.0%) on SC-S. If the current climate change rate continues, monthly and annual streamflow at the outlet will decrease primarily due to snowpack reduction. To mitigate climate change impacts, better water resource management is needed in this watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Lidar measurements of cloud extinction coefficient distribution and its forward scattering phase function according to multiply scattered lidar returns

The study of the inversion algorithm for the single scatter lidar equation, for quantitative determination of cloud (or aerosol) optical properties, has received much attention over the last thirty years. Some of the difficulties associated with the solution of this equation are not yet solved. One problem is that a single scatter lidar equation has two unknowns. Because of this, the determination of the far-end boundary value, in the case of Klett's algorithm, is a problem if the atmosphere is optically inhomogeneous. Another difficulty concerns multiple scattering. There is a large error in the extinction distribution solution, in many cases, if only the single scattering component is considered, while neglecting the multiple scattering component. However, the use of multiple scattering in the remote sensing of aerosol or cloud optical properties is promising. In our early study, an inversion method for simultaneous determination of the cloud (or aerosol) Extinction Coefficient Distribution (ECD) and its Forward Scattering Phase Function (FSPF) was proposed according to multiply scattered lidar returns with two fields of view for the receiver. The method is based on a parameterized multiple scatter lidar equation. This paper is devoted to further numerical tests and an experimental study of lidar measurements of cloud ECD and FSPF using this method.

Qiu, Jinhuan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Reconfiguration for Enhanced Operational Resilience Using Reinforcement Learning

This paper proposes a reinforcement learning-based approach for distribution network reconfiguration(DNR) to enhance the resilience of the electric power supply. Resilience enhancements usually require solving large-scale stochastic optimization problems that are computationally expensive and sometimes infeasible. The exceptional performance of reinforcement learning techniques has encouraged their adoption in various power system control studies, specifically resilience-based real-time applications. In this paper, a single agent framework is developed using an Actor-Critic algorithm (ACA) to determine statuses of tie-switches in a distribution feeder impacted by an extreme weather event. The proposed approach provides a fast-acting control algorithm that reconfigures the feeder topology to reduce or even avoid load shedding. The problem is formulated as a discrete Markov decision process in such a way that a system state captures the system topology and its operational characteristics. An action is made to open or close a specific set of tie-switches after which a reward is calculated to evaluate the practicality and advantage of that action. The iterative Markov process is used to train the proposed ACA under diverse failure scenarios and is demonstrated on the 33-node distribution feeder system. Results show the capability of the proposed ACA to determine proper switching action of tie-switches with accuracy exceeding 93%.

actor critic↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gradient Coding With Iterative Block Leverage Score Sampling

Gradient coding is a method for mitigating straggling servers in a centralized computing network that uses erasure-coding techniques to distributively carry out first-order optimization methods. Randomized numerical linear algebra uses randomization to develop improved algorithms for large-scale linear algebra computations. In this study, we propose a method for distributed optimization that combines gradient coding and randomized numerical linear algebra. The proposed method uses a randomized ℓ 2 -subspace embedding and a gradient coding technique to distribute blocks of data to the computational nodes of a centralized network, and at each iteration the central server only requires a small number of computations to obtain the steepest descent update. The novelty of our approach is that the data is replicated according to importance scores, called block leverage scores, in contrast to most gradient coding approaches that uniformly replicate the data blocks. Furthermore, we do not require a decoding step at each iteration, avoiding a bottleneck in previous gradient coding schemes. We show that our approach results in a valid ℓ 2 -subspace embedding, and that our resulting approximation converges to the optimal solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward a machine-guided approach to energetic material discovery

In this article, we trained a machine learning (ML) model to connect microstructural details of an energetic material formulation to its performance for the purpose of guiding the discovery of new explosive formulations. Our hypothesis was that the algorithm would robustly learn the training data and produce an accurate surrogate model. Specifically, the algorithm learned the relationship between details of the void size distribution (VSD), initiating shock pressure, and the energetic material performance. We used realistic constraints on the VSD and a range of cases were ingested by a physically informed reactive flow model working within a hydrodynamic solver running on high-performance computing resources. The ML algorithm produced a surrogate model that accurately predicted known test points around the parameter space. In addition to the utility of the model and the process used for its development, we noted interesting comparisons between what we, the authors—subject matter experts, would heuristically conclude from the training data and the surrogate model predictions. We detected nuanced details that were missed by the surrogate model; however, these details are not important to an energetic material formulator. We concluded that the algorithm did indeed robustly learn the training data and produce an accurate surrogate model. We further concluded that the surrogate model is a powerful tool to guide the formulator in the absence of subject matter experts and limited-access computing resources.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved microgrid resiliency through distributionally robust optimization under a policy-mode framework

Critical energy infrastructure are constantly under stress due to the ever increasing disruptions caused by wildfires, hurricanes, other weather related extreme events and cyber-attacks. Hence it becomes important to make critical infrastructure resilient to threats from such cyber-physical events. However, such events are hard to predict and numerous in nature and type and it becomes infeasible to make a system resilient to every possible such cyber-physical event. Such an approach can make the system operation overly conservative and impractical to operate. Furthermore, distributions of such events are hard to predict and historical data available on such events can be very sparse, making the problem even harder to solve. To deal with these issues, in this paper we present a policy-mode framework that enumerates and predicts the probability of various cyber-physical events and then a distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation that is robust to the sparsity of the available historical data. The proposed algorithm is illustrated on an islanded microgrid example: a modified IEEE 123-node feeder with distributed energy resources (DERs) and energy storage. Simulations are carried to validate the resiliency metrics under the sampled disruption events.

Nazir, Mohammad Nawaf↗