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DOE OSTI2025

Simulating regional workforce impacts of decarbonizing integrated steelmaking

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are increasing pressure on heavy manufacturing industries to decarbonize production. The iron and steel industry is responsible for 7% of CO 2 emissions globally (2% in the United States) and is often a major employer in the regions where iron and steel is produced. Understanding the future prospects for workers in regions with high CO 2 emitting industries—including impacts of phasing out or evolving such industries—will be critical for informing regional economic and clean energy strategies. We simulate the impact of an “in-place” transition that replaces today’s integrated production with direct reduced iron (DRI) used in electric arc furnaces (EAFs), using Southwest Pennsylvania as an application of our generalizable approach. Our results suggest that the integrated steelmaking workforce today has the skills, knowledge, and abilities (SKAs) to fill over 95% of all jobs required by DRI/EAF facilities, but the number of jobs is only 25% of those at integrated plants. We also find that some occupational groups have greater general transferability into the broader job market, while other groups, such as production workers, are ill-equipped today based on current SKAs to transition out of the iron and steel industry. Our methodology further suggests factors that limit transitions: Around 85% of occupations are more limited by missing skills, while 15% are more limited by insufficient wages. These results may help to improve the design of social policy and the targeting of retraining programs, while the simulation approach can be readily adapted for other regions and industries.

decarbonization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Washington Air-Sea Interaction Research Facility Waves and Currents Test Data

This archive includes data from the University of Washington WASIRF (Washington Air-Sea Interaction Research Facility) flume. WASIRF is a laboratory testing tank at the Northwest National Marine Renewable Energy Center designed to investigate wind-wave-current interactions. It includes test data for simultaneous waves and current generation done at the WASIRF lab. A report included in the archive further details testing methodology. Wave and current data is provided in .dat files.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing the physical design and layout of a resilient wind, solar, and storage hybrid power plant

We report as wind and solar technologies improve and their costs decrease, the share of power produced by these sources will increase. As the market penetration increases, these power sources will need to provide grid services, such as dispatchability, in addition to providing energy. One way to reduce variability, provide higher quality power to the grid, and address local grid stability issues is through colocating wind and solar power plants. In addition to operating reliably during normal operating conditions, in scenarios with high penetrations of renewable generation, it is important that these hybrid plants can withstand production disruptions and continue to supply power despite prolonged resource reduction, extreme weather events, or other disruptions. In this paper, we present a methodology to optimize a wind-solar-battery hybrid power plant down to the component level that is resilient against production disruptions and that can continually produce some minimum required power. We introduce the models and assumptions we used to simulate a hybrid power plant as well as the design variable parameterization and specific methods we used to optimize the plant. We demonstrate the performance of our method by comparing a plant optimized for different objectives, generation outage durations, minimum power requirements, and power purchase agreements. Although the plant design is sensitive to model parameters and various other assumptions, our results demonstrate some of the optimal designs that occur in different scenarios and what one should expect when designing a hybrid wind-solar-storage power plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study - Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.

backup power↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variable-Speed Pump Efficiency Calculation For Fluid Flow Systems with and without Static Head

To accurately calculate pump energy savings gained from implementing variable frequency drive (VFD) controls, the variation of pump efficiency must be considered when operating conditions transition from the design operating point to new operating points. Many software tools require users to specify the new pump efficiency, or it is assumed to be unchanged. Unfortunately, many users have challenges of estimating the pump efficiency at new operating points. This paper presents a simplified method of estimating centrifugal pump efficiency at new operating speeds when the pump is controlled by a VFD. This methodology applies to systems with and without static head when the system curve is not affected by the change, and also systems where the change in operation changes the system curve.A hypothetical fluid flow system and centrifugal pump were used to demonstrate the calculation process for these scenarios. For this hypothetical system, the pump’s efficiency at new operating points was up to 5.4% lower than the design operating point.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Expediting field-effect transistor chemical sensor design with neuromorphic spiking graph neural networks

Improving the sensitive and selective detection of analytes in a variety of applications requires accelerating the rational design of field-effect transistor (FET) chemical sensors. Achieving high-performance detection relies on identifying optimal probe materials that can effectively interact with target analytes, a process traditionally driven by chemical intuition and time-consuming trial-and-error methods. To address the difficulties in probe screening for FET sensor development, this work presents a methodology that combines neuromorphic machine learning (ML) architectures, specifically a hybrid spiking graph neural network (SGNN), with an enriched dataset of physicochemical properties through semi-automated data extraction using large language models. Achieving a classification accuracy of 0.89 in predicting sensor sensitivity categories, the SGNN model outperformed traditional ML techniques by leveraging its ability to capture both global physicochemical properties and sparse topological features through a hybrid modeling framework. Next-generation sensor design was informed by the actionable insights into the connections between material properties and sensing performance offered by the SGNN framework. Through virtual screening for the detection of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) as a use case, the effectiveness of the SGNN model was further validated. Density functional theory simulations confirmed graphene as a promising active material for PFAS detection as suggested by the SGNN framework. By bridging gaps in predictive modeling and data availability, this integrated approach provides a strong foundation for accelerating advancements in FET sensor design and innovation.

Ferreira, Rodrigo Pires [Univ. of Chicago, IL (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

Additional ventilation capacity has been designed for the 3430 Building filtered exhaust stack system. The updated system will increase the number of fans from two to three and include new ductwork with a larger diameter to integrate the new fan into the existing stack. Stack operations will involve running various fan combinations at any given time. The air monitoring system of the existing two-fan stack previously was found to comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard. Full-scale, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to evaluate the modified three-fan system for compliance with the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard, which essentially is equivalent to the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. The four mixing criteria evaluated are 1) flow angle, 2) velocity, 3) gas tracer, and 4) particle tracer. Benchmarking of the CFD modeling methodology showed good agreement with previous testing used to qualify the stack, and modeling of the existing two-fan system showed good agreement with test data collected from the 3430 Building stack. Modeling was performed to develop a suitable three-fan design. Initial modeling of the three-fan design and basic ductwork showed that flow angles and velocity uniformity were acceptable; however, the gas tracer and particle tracer mixing results were not acceptable. To meet ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 criteria, an air blender was added to the stack design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study: Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This report is one in a series of NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its completion. The table below lists the specific research topics planned for examination under the SFS and the associated publication formats. This report, the fourth in the SFS series, provides a set of scenarios for cost-effectiveness and customer adoption for a range of scenarios that include future technology costs and valuation of backup power. The SFS series provides data and analysis in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge, a comprehensive program to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of next-generation energy storage technologies and sustain American global leadership in energy storage. The Energy Storage Grand Challenge employs a use case framework to ensure storage technologies can cost-effectively meet specific needs, and it incorporates a broad range of technologies in several categories: electrochemical, electromechanical, thermal, flexible generation, flexible buildings, and power electronics. More information, any supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the series, and other information about the broader study are available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vadose Zone Soil Flushing for Chromium Remediation: A Laboratory Investigation to Support Field‐scale Application

Cr(VI) flushing from the vadose zone to the groundwater (with subsequent Cr(VI) removal in groundwater by pump-and-treat system) is a promising remedial technique that has recently been used at field scale. This laboratory study was conducted to provide the technical basis to design a field soil flushing strategy. The objectives were to (1) quantify the relationship between sediment Cr(VI) and Cr(III) mass and release rates and subsequent Cr(VI) leaching; (2) investigate different methodologies to maximize Cr(VI) leaching, and (3) investigate methods to minimize leaching of remaining residual Cr. Characterization of Cr-contaminated sediments (Hanford Site, WA) exhibited Cr(VI) showed that leach rates that were correlated to different Cr surface phases. Sediments with low leachable Cr(VI) (<2 μg/g) leached Cr rapidly, so slow infiltration of water in a single pulse was sufficient to leach most Cr. In contrast, sediments with high Cr (2 to 200 μg/g) released some Cr(VI) quickly but 10 to 50% Cr(VI) slowly (tens to hundreds of hours). Efficient unsaturated leaching of these sediments required a different infiltration strategy that includes: multiple slow leach pulses with time between flushing cycles; the use of a surfactant to increase Cr leaching from low-permeability zones, and the use of a reductant (Na-dithionite or Ca-polysulfide) in the final leach water was highly effective at decreasing residual Cr leaching. This study clearly demonstrated that the methodology of basing laboratory Cr flushing on parameters such as Cr release mass and rates could be used to improve the efficiency of soil flushing at field scale.

Accelerated Cr Flushing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Crack Growth Rate at Oxygen Electrode/Electrolyte Interface in Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells Predicted by Experiment Coupled Multiphysics Modeling

Solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) is a very efficient hydrogen production technology, but the cell degradation is a serious limiting factor for its long-term implementation. Oxygen electrode (OE) delamination is reported to be the critical degradation mechanism. In this study, we present a methodology to understand the delamination failure of the OE due to chemical stress in a better perspective. Several OE configurations were tested: baseline strontium-doped lanthanum cobalt iron oxide (LSCF) single layer design and tantalum-doped strontium cobalt oxide (SCT) - LSCF bilayer designs with different SCT loadings. An electro-chemo-mechanical model is developed to associate the electrochemical behavior of the cell with solid mechanics for calculating crack growth of the cell during long term test. The bilayer configuration with SCT 20 wt% has better performance as it survived in the long-term life test with the least crack length. This study implies that an additional nano-coating of SCT over the OE have improved the species transport and oxygen evolution with reduced chemical stress. As the operating current density decreases, it takes longer time for the cell to reach the delamination with the same critical crack length of 6.5 μ m (∼93% of the electrode/electrolyte interface length). Finally, it was concluded that chemical stress plays a significant role in interface delamination failure, however it may not be the only source of stresses at the interface.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California

The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.

Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗

DOE OSTI2021

Influence of Diffuse and Ground-Reflected Irradiance on the Spectral Modeling of Solar Reference Cells

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) is a key component for solar thermal applications to bridge the gap between the demand for thermal energy and the supply of solar energy, whose availability depends on the time of day and season. Thus, cost-effective packed-bed thermal containers filled with a solid storage medium have been proposed for high-temperature sensible heat storage as materials are abundant and relatively cheap. Thus, it is necessary to investigate their performance and temperature profiles during the charge-discharge cycle. Several models are available for this purpose. Typically, the more detailed a model, the greater the computational effort required to solve it, and hence a time-efficient model is needed to prevent excessively long computation times for long-term analysis. At the more basic level, the common Hughes E-NTU model and the less realistic simplified Infinite-NTU model are very important for their less time and computational effort. In this paper, the appropriateness of employing the Infinite-NTU model was evaluated to investigate the performance of a typical and scalable rock-bed TES as a case study. The results presented provide a methodology to quickly test the validity of the model and predict the temperature profile for the case under study. Accordingly, such simple charge-discharge cycle thermal performance predictions are important to plan, design, and rapidly deploy a reliable and economical solar thermal system for the supply of valuable heat to high-temperature demanding applications of power generation and industrial processes as part of a rapid shift towards non-polluting renewable energy. Keywords: Solar Thermal, TES, Packed-bed, NTU model, Temperature profile

PV modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Applying the ATOM drug discovery platform to small-molecule antivirals (Annual Report)

The objective of this project is to advance our understanding of the ML approaches needed to find the most potent inhibitor through an AI guided search that simultaneously optimizes for limited off-target safety activity and desirable pharmacokinetics (PK) properties. The methods will be tested for inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 activity through inhibition of the main protease as a demonstration, but the methodology will be developed to apply to any biothreat target using a small-molecule protein binding-based intervention, with limited experimental data. Computational experiments are conducted using our ATOM generative molecular design (GMD) loop software, which is the implementation of our AI/ML drug design pipeline.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Analysis of Confidence Metrics for Nuclear Criticality Safety

Nuclear criticality safety standards provide guidance on the requirements and recommendations to establish confidence in computerized model results used to support operation with fissionable materials. By design, the guidance is not prescriptive, leaving the analysts free to determine how various sources of uncertainties are to be statistically aggregated. This report compares the analyses and key assumptions behind four notable methodologies documented in the nuclear criticality safety literature: the parametric, nonparametric, Whisper, and TSURFER methodologies. Because of the involved use of statistics entangled with heuristic recipes, the results of these methodologies are often difficult to interpret. Also, they are augmented by additional large administrative margins, eliminating the incentive to understand their differences. With the new resurgent wave of advanced nuclear systems focused on economizing operation—including advanced reactors, fuel cycles, and fuel concepts—there is a strong need to develop a clear understanding of uncertainties and their fusion methodologies to reduce uncertainties in a scientifically defensible manner. This report offers a deep dive into the various assumptions of the four noted methodologies, their adequacy, and their limitations, to provide guidance on developing confidence for the emergent nuclear systems. These systems are expected to be challenged by the scarcity of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Tandem Photovoltaics

Tandem solar cell structures are the only strategy demonstrated to surpass the detailed balance efficiency limit of high-quality single-junction solar cells. To continue to improve the efficiencies of cost-effective terrestrial solar power, hybrid tandems of dissimilar subcells are being considered by many around the world, especially designs that incorporate silicon solar cells as a bottom subcell. In this project, we studied a wide variety of tandem design possibilities including those with three-terminal (3T) and four-terminal (4T) configurations. The use of 3T and 4T designs could be useful for efficient and economical hybrid tandem designs that utilize the best available subcell materials such as emerging perovskite materials. Three-terminal configurations, in particular, have not been sufficiently studied previously. We have laid the foundational groundwork in this project for understanding the operation of 3T tandems: developing a taxonomy for naming, a methodology for measuring and interconnecting, and models for simply characterizing 3T tandems. Electrical and optical subcell coupling between the subcells was also measured and modeled. An important part of this work was the fabrication of novel example tandem structures, including 4T GaAs/Si, 3T GaInP/Si, 3T GaAs/Si, and 3T GaInP/GaAs devices. Using these high-quality tandem cells, we have been able to clearly demonstrate the achievability of high-efficiencies, and subtle physical effects such as photon recycling and luminescent coupling. We have developed and demonstrated essential building-block tools such as transparent conductive adhesives (TCA) and 3T silicon bottom cells with interdigitated back contacts (IBC) that can also be used in many other tandem designs. We have tested the reliability of these tools and devices under standardized testing and outdoor measurements. We have found 4T GaAs/Si tandems to be relatively straightforward to fabricate and robust in real-world outdoor conditions. While we have demonstrated working hybrid 3T III-V/TCA/Si IBC tandems, we experienced low yields even with our best process flows yet. Further work is still needed to improve the processing yield of these devices. We therefore also created tandem cells using an all-III-V 3T tandem process which was very robust with high yields, allowing for the creation of voltage-matched strings in many different configurations using 8 nearly identical 3T tandems. Using these robust 3T tandem examples, we were able measure and precisely characterize 3T tandem behaviors to predict their operation under changing spectrum and temperature. The optoelectronic equivalent-circuit model was shown to be very general and applicable to hybrid tandems, and encompassed the operation 3T Si IBC cells. This general model has been distributed to the public in as open-source Python-based software called PVcircuit. We have calculated the implications of these new tandem device designs on the real-world energy production and shown how the relative performance of different tandem configurations is situational and can be engineered using the tools developed here.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Methodology for Simulating Supercritical CO2 Heat Transfer Experiments Using Machine Learning Models

In an effort to support the growth of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles in the energy industry, this study seeks to train a machine learning model to mirror experimental data to inform future efforts and design features for both sCO2 heat exchangers and sCO2 turbine thermal management. There is a need for large amounts of experimental testing as there is less established literature about sCO2 used as a working medium in these cycles, as well as due to the influx of novel heat transfer designs presented by the advent of additive manufacturing.

Grabowski, Owen↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Design of Ultradurable, Low CO 2 Alternative Binder Systems via Machine Learning

This ARPA-E project developed a machine learning tool to use in formulation design of cementitious binders for concrete having 50% less embodied CO 2 and possessing twice the durability compared to concrete based on ordinary portland cement (OPC) binders. The technical focus was on limestone/calcined clay cement (LC3), the leading replacement for OPC. Here, hierarchical machine learning (HML) was used to model the flowability, set time, strength, and durability of LC3 concrete. This methodology identifies latent variables derived from domain knowledge and empirical models that develop an accurate model for a response surface from small datasets. For the flowability metric, particle packing was a dominant factor, while strength and durability were both strongly determined by the fraction of metakaolin and the water:solids ratio. Under constraints of water:binder ratio, material performance metrics, embodied CO 2 , and cost per tonne of OPC, multi-objective optimization was used to design binders parameterized by the mineral composition replacing OPC, particle size distributions, and water:solids ratio. The trained algorithm was able to predict multiple mixes met these performance criteria, and experimental testing validated the predictions. The model demonstrated here is relevant for North America, where pure kaolin deposits are found broadly. The approach is being taken forward into commercial application by Ansatz AI, a materials informatics company founded by PI Washburn and co-PI Poczos. Through collaborations with the cement and concrete industry, and funding from SBIR programs, a commercial software will be developed in future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗