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Lower Mekong Hydrological Decision Support system

The Lower Mekong Hydrological Decision Support system (LMHDSs) is a environmental data analysis tool developed at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center with funding from the SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and technical support from SERVIR Science Coordination Office (SCO). The web application allows stakeholders and decision-makers to view and download the inputs and outputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model temporally and spatially. The front end is developed using JavaScript libraries like OpenLayers and Stock charts and the backend uses Django, a Python-based web framework. The web app provides several features, including visualizing map products, time-series plots, land-use/land-cover and associated soil information, and a data cart for downloading data. In addition, LMHDSs incorporates the NASAaccess software package, which provides seamless access to various climate and weather data products from NASA’s Earth observations portfolio. The application is region agnostic (any valid SWAT model can be used), modular (different components of the applications can be customized), and open (anyone can download and run it on their end). The web app is currently in use by the Mekong River Commission (MRC), a treaty-based regional intergovernmental organization that is made up of Mekong countries, as part of its hydrological decision support.

Hydrology↗

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗

Representing Learning With Graphical Models

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a unified qualitative and quantitative framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. Their development and use spans several fields including artificial intelligence, decision theory and statistics, and provides an important bridge between these communities. This paper shows by way of example that these models can be extended to machine learning, neural networks and knowledge discovery by representing the notion of a sample on the graphical model. Not only does this allow a flexible variety of learning problems to be represented, it also provides the means for representing the goal of learning and opens the way for the automatic development of learning algorithms from specifications.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

Application of Advanced Earth Observations and Model Simulations to Improve Air Quality Monitoring in the Hindu-Kush-Himalayan Region

Air pollution is a serious environmental health concern in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region of south-central Asia, as rapid industrialization and population growth have led to increased anthropogenic emissions from transportation, residential, industrial, energy, and biomass burning sources. Natural emissions from dust and forest fires are additional sources of air pollutants that can exacerbate air quality in the region. The combination of the complex pollutant mixtures and atmospherically stable weather conditions during the winter monsoon can visibility reductions and hazardous air quality from persistent haze episodes. The Kathmandu Valley is especially vulnerable to extreme haze issues due to the surrounding mountains that restrict air movement and retains pollutants in the atmosphere. This study uses state-of-the-art satellite observations and modeling capabilities in conjunction with ground-based networks to provide a comprehensive data toolkit for advancing air quality monitoring and forecasting decisions in the HKH region. The toolkit includes new generation satellite observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), and Advanced Meteorological Imager, which provide high spatiotemporal information on NO2, HCHO, SO2, O3, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). Particulate matter with diameters less than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) are derived from the satellite-retrieved AOD using ground-based observations and forecast model data. The satellite observations are also used to initialize and constrain forecast model systems designed for the HKH region. This talk will highlight the performance of the air quality toolkit for enhancing decision-making processes during exceptional air quality events in the region. Note: Presentation includes additional attachment of full presentation with sound and animation (best when viewed as slide show) with runtime of 15 min 32 secs

Aaron Naeger↗

A Preliminary Data Model for Orbital Flight Dynamics in Shuttle Mission Control

The Orbital Flight Dynamics group in Shuttle Mission Control is investigating new user interfaces in a project called RIOTS [RIOTS 2000]. Traditionally, the individual functions of hardware and software guide the design of displays, which results in an aggregated, if not integrated interface. The human work system has then been designed and trained to navigate, operate and integrate the processors and displays. The aim of RIOTS is to reduce the cognitive demands of the flight controllers by redesigning the user interface to support the work of the flight controller. This document supports the RIOTS project by defining a preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 2 defines an information-centric perspective. An information-centric approach aims to reduce the cognitive workload of the flight controllers by reducing the need for manual integration of information across processors and displays. Section 3 describes the Orbital Flight Dynamics domain. Section 4 defines the preliminary data model for Orbital Flight Dynamics. Section 5 examines the implications of mapping the data model to Orbital Flight Dynamics current information systems. Two recurring patterns are identified in the Orbital Flight Dynamics work the iteration/rework cycle and the decision-making/information integration/mirroring role relationship. Section 6 identifies new requirements on Orbital Flight Dynamics work and makes recommendations based on changing the information environment, changing the implementation of the data model, and changing the two recurring patterns.

ONeill, John↗

Computer simulation: A modern day crystal ball?

It has long been the desire of managers to be able to look into the future and predict the outcome of decisions. With the advent of computer simulation and the tremendous capability provided by personal computers, that desire can now be realized. This paper presents an overview of computer simulation and modeling, and discusses the capabilities of Extend. Extend is an iconic-driven Macintosh-based software tool that brings the power of simulation to the average computer user. An example of an Extend based model is presented in the form of the Space Transportation System (STS) Processing Model. The STS Processing Model produces eight shuttle launches per year, yet it takes only about ten minutes to run. In addition, statistical data such as facility utilization, wait times, and processing bottlenecks are produced. The addition or deletion of resources, such as orbiters or facilities, can be easily modeled and their impact analyzed. Through the use of computer simulation, it is possible to look into the future to see the impact of today's decisions.

Sham, Michael↗

Toward the Next Generation of Air Quality Monitoring Indicators

This paper introduces an initiative to bridge the state of scientific knowledge on air pollution with the needs of policymakers and stakeholders to design the "next generation" of air quality indicators. As a first step this initiative assesses current monitoring and modeling associated with a number of important pollutants with an eye toward identifying knowledge gaps and scientific needs that are a barrier to reducing air pollution impacts on human and ecosystem health across the globe. Four outdoor air pollutants were considered e particulate matter, ozone, mercury, and Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) e because of their clear adverse impacts on human and ecosystem health and because of the availability of baseline data for assessment for each. While other papers appearing in this issue will address each pollutant separately, this paper serves as a summary of the initiative and presents recommendations for needed investments to provide improved measurement, monitoring, and modeling data for policyrelevant indicators. The ultimate goal of this effort is to enable enhanced public policy responses to air pollution by linking improved data and measurement methods to decision-making through the development of indicators that can allow policymakers to better understand the impacts of air pollution and, along with source attribution based on modeling and measurements, facilitate improved policies to solve it. The development of indicators represents a crucial next step in this process.

Particulate matter↗

Lifetime Cost and Performance model for photovoltaic power systems

This paper describes the approach and procedures of the Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) model for photovoltaic power systems. The LCP model is designed to evaluate the impact of alternative initial design and recurrent policy decisions on both cost and power output over the lifetime of a photovoltaic power plant. LCP is, therefore, useful to system designers and operators for addressing questions relating to optimal system configuration, installation activities, level of effort and timing of operations/maintenance actions, allowable degradation and replacement options.

Borden, C. S.↗

Detection of gratings and small features in speckle imagery

The extent of picture degradation of speckle, in particular in synthetic aperture radar pictures, has been investigated in the cases where an observer has to detect (1) a small feature immersed in a darker background, and (2) a square wave grating. In each case, a theoretical model is developed for the observer's detection mechanism, and the probability of correct decision is related to relevant picture parameters such as contrast, looks per pixel, and size. These calculations are verified by psychophysical experiments using computer-simulated pictures. Detectability of gratings as a criterion for characterizing picture quality is shown to be far inferior to feature detectability.

Korwar, V. N.↗

airborne data analysis/monitor system

An Airborne Data Analysis/Monitor System (ADAMS), a ROLM 1666 computer based system installed onboard test airplanes used during experimental testing is evaluated. In addition to the 1666 computer, the ADAMS hardware includes a DDC System 90 fixed head disk and a Miltape DD400 floppy disk. Boeing designed a DMA interface to the data acquisition system and an intelligent terminal to reduce system overhead and simplify operator commands. The ADAMS software includes RMX/RTOS and both ROLM FORTRAN and assembly language are used. The ADAMS provides real time displays that enable onboard test engineers to make rapid decisions about test conduct thus reducing the cost and time required to certify new model airplanes, and improved the quality of data derived from the test, leading to more rapid development of improvements resulting in quieter, safer, and more efficient airplanes. The availability of airborne data processing removes most of the weather and geographical restrictions imposed by telemetered flight test data systems. A data base is maintained to describe the airplane, the data acquisition system, the type of testing, and the conditions under which the test is performed.

Stephison, D. B.↗

The AMPTE IRM Science Data Center

The creation of artificial ion clouds is a major aspect of the AMPTE program. The IRM Science Data center supports real-time decision for a release with real-time scientific data processing and display including model calculations of ion trajectories. Additionally, survey plots and summary data records are generated in near real time thus allowing to start the data analysis as early as possible. For detailed analyses, interactive programs were developed so that physical parameters of all IRM experiments can be combined to produce common spectra or line plots.

Bauer, O. H.↗

Predictive monitoring research: Summary of the PREMON system

Traditional approaches to monitoring are proving inadequate in the face of two important issues: the dynamic adjustment of expectations about sensor values when the behavior of the device is too complex to enumerate beforehand, and the selective but effective interpretation of sensor readings when the number of sensors becomes overwhelming. This system addresses these issues by building an explicit model of a device and applying common-sense theories of physics to model causality in the device. The resulting causal simulation of the device supports planning decisions about how to efficiently yet reliably utilize a limited number of sensors to verify correct operation of the device.

Doyle, Richard J.↗

A parametric LQ approach to multiobjective control system design

The synthesis of a constant parameter output feedback control law of constrained structure is set in a multiple-objective linear quadratic regulator (MOLQR) framework. The use of intuitive objective functions such as model-following ability and closed-loop trajectory sensitivity allows multiple-objective decision-making techniques, such as the surrogate worth tradeoff method, to be applied. For the continuous-time deterministic problem with an infinite time horizon, dynamic compensators as well as static output feedback controllers can be synthesized using a descent Anderson-Moore algorithm modified to impose linear equality constraints on the feedback gains by moving in feasible directions. Results of three different examples are presented, including a unique reformulation of the sensitivity reduction problem.

Kyr, Doug↗

Information processing

Theoretical models of sensory-information processing by the human brain are reviewed from a human-factors perspective, with a focus on their implications for aircraft and avionics design. The topics addressed include perception (signal detection and selection), linguistic factors in perception (context provision, logical reversals, absence of cues, and order reversals), mental models, and working and long-term memory. Particular attention is given to decision-making problems such as situation assessment, decision formulation, decision quality, selection of action, the speed-accuracy tradeoff, stimulus-response compatibility, stimulus sequencing, dual-task performance, task difficulty and structure, and factors affecting multiple task performance (processing modalities, codes, and stages).

Wickens, Christopher D.↗

Knowledge-based simulation using object-oriented programming

Simulations have become a powerful mechanism for understanding and modeling complex phenomena. Their results have had substantial impact on a broad range of decisions in the military, government, and industry. Because of this, new techniques are continually being explored and developed to make them even more useful, understandable, extendable, and efficient. One such area of research is the application of the knowledge-based methods of artificial intelligence (AI) to the computer simulation field. The goal of knowledge-based simulation is to facilitate building simulations of greatly increased power and comprehensibility by making use of deeper knowledge about the behavior of the simulated world. One technique for representing and manipulating knowledge that has been enhanced by the AI community is object-oriented programming. Using this technique, the entities of a discrete-event simulation can be viewed as objects in an object-oriented formulation. Knowledge can be factual (i.e., attributes of an entity) or behavioral (i.e., how the entity is to behave in certain circumstances). Rome Laboratory's Advanced Simulation Environment (RASE) was developed as a research vehicle to provide an enhanced simulation development environment for building more intelligent, interactive, flexible, and realistic simulations. This capability will support current and future battle management research and provide a test of the object-oriented paradigm for use in large scale military applications.

Sidoran, Karen M.↗

Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

Green, Mavis F.↗

Sensor Fusion for a Network of Processes/Systems with Highly Autonomous Sensors

This paper describes a distributed sensor-data-fusion paradigm and theory based on a previously developed theory to model sensors as highly autonomous units. Generic procedures are defined to reason and make decisions at the qualitative level. This facilitates distribution of intelligence ( code and hardware) to the sensor level and peer-to-peer communication among sensors, controllers, and other devices in the system.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

The footprints of visual attention in the Posner cueing paradigm revealed by classification images

In the Posner cueing paradigm, observers' performance in detecting a target is typically better in trials in which the target is present at the cued location than in trials in which the target appears at the uncued location. This effect can be explained in terms of a Bayesian observer where visual attention simply weights the information differently at the cued (attended) and uncued (unattended) locations without a change in the quality of processing at each location. Alternatively, it could also be explained in terms of visual attention changing the shape of the perceptual filter at the cued location. In this study, we use the classification image technique to compare the human perceptual filters at the cued and uncued locations in a contrast discrimination task. We did not find statistically significant differences between the shapes of the inferred perceptual filters across the two locations, nor did the observed differences account for the measured cueing effects in human observers. Instead, we found a difference in the magnitude of the classification images, supporting the idea that visual attention changes the weighting of information at the cued and uncued location, but does not change the quality of processing at each individual location.

Non-NASA Center↗