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DOE OSTI2014

Final Technical Report for Contract No. DE-EE0006332, "Integrated Simulation Development and Decision Support Tool-Set for Utility Market and Distributed Solar Power Generation"

This project will enable utilities to develop long-term strategic plans that integrate high levels of renewable energy generation, and to better plan power system operations under high renewable penetration. The program developed forecast data streams for decision support and effective integration of centralized and distributed solar power generation in utility operations. This toolset focused on real time simulation of distributed power generation within utility grids with the emphasis on potential applications in day ahead (market) and real time (reliability) utility operations. The project team developed and demonstrated methodologies for quantifying the impact of distributed solar generation on core utility operations, identified protocols for internal data communication requirements, and worked with utility personnel to adapt the new distributed generation (DG) forecasts seamlessly within existing Load and Generation procedures through a sophisticated DMS. This project supported the objectives of the SunShot Initiative and SUNRISE by enabling core utility operations to enhance their simulation capability to analyze and prepare for the impacts of high penetrations of solar on the power grid. The impact of high penetration solar PV on utility operations is not only limited to control centers, but across many core operations. Benefits of an enhanced DMS using state-of-the-art solar forecast data were demonstrated within this project and have had an immediate direct operational cost savings for Energy Marketing for Day Ahead generation commitments, Real Time Operations, Load Forecasting (at an aggregate system level for Day Ahead), Demand Response, Long term Planning (asset management), Distribution Operations, and core ancillary services as required for balancing and reliability. This provided power system operators with the necessary tools and processes to operate the grid in a reliable manner under high renewable penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (Final Report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE EERE BTO project Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau. The project implemented a community energy campaign to deploy heat pumps and efficiency for residents of Juneau, in Southeast Alaska. The project helped Juneau make progress towards its renewable energy goal of reaching 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045. The Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (ICE-Juneau) project began in 2020 and concluded three years later in 2023. During that time, a group of implementation partners and a research advisory team instituted a beneficial electrification campaign to promote energy savings and carbon reduction in residences of Juneau, Alaska. The campaign, Thermalize Juneau, focused on the installation of single head ductless mini-split heat pumps along with other efficiency upgrades. Thermalize Juneau was the first campaign of its kind in Alaska. After several months of planning, registration opened to the public in early 2021, and over the course of six months 164 participants enrolled. Campaign staff provided education to homeowners on heat pumps and efficiency, and each participant received a one-on-one heat pump assessment using a custom Microsoft Excel-based calculator that estimated energy savings for their residence based on building characteristics and past utility bills. Participants could also obtain a free energy audit from one of the two local energy auditors to further inform their decision. A heat pump installer, electrician, and builder were selected via a competitive RFP process. Participants who felt ready to install a heat pump or other efficiency upgrades received a site visit and custom quote from each of these contractors free of charge, and if they still felt energy upgrades were right for them, could move forward with an individual contract. Participants received a $400 heat pump installation rebate, offered by the installer if 40 heat pump installations occurred through the campaign. Overall, the campaign facilitated 75 heat pump installations (including participants that went with another contractor or heat pump model) and 30 efficiency upgrades (including participants that went with another builder or did DIY upgrades). The campaign created 3 new jobs as the heat pump installer hired an administrative assistant and two apprentices over the course of the campaign. It also helped Juneau work toward achieving its renewable energy goal of 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045 by upgrading houses from fuel oil to heat pumps powered by the hydropower electric grid. Researchers conducted four surveys to inform Thermalize Juneau and future energy campaigns. The first surveyed existing and prospective heat pump owners in Juneau to identify barriers the campaign could address and inform recruitment efforts. Entry and exit surveys provided information on participant demographics, goals, outcomes, and suggestions for improving future campaigns. And a final survey of community members who had not participated in Thermalize Juneau gave insight on ways future campaigns could include a greater diversity of participants so they could realize similar benefits. Researchers also used pre-campaign energy modeling to predict energy savings, which was then compared to the savings estimated through aggregation of heat pump assessments and energy audits, and later to actual energy savings of 10 participants who installed a heat pump and were able to provide complete energy use data sets. In addition to energy savings, and to assist the electric utility in future planning efforts, researchers analyzed the overall change in electric use across participants with energy data and heat pump installations. They also completed a life cycle cost analysis, showing positive net present values for those displacing a fuel oil appliance, and a more mixed case for those switching from electric baseboard. This project proved the feasibility of energy campaigns, with a goal of beneficial electrification, in cold, remote locations. The Thermalize Juneau team compiled a Guidebook to Thermalize Campaigns, available online. In addition to documenting what occurred in Alaska’s first thermalize campaign, it provides tips and resources for other communities wishing to implement a similar program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nontargeted vs. Targeted vs. Smart Load Shifting Using Heat Pump Water Heaters

Deployment of CTA-2045–enabled devices is increasing in the U.S. market. These devices allow utilities or third-party aggregators to control appliance energy use in homes, and could also be applied to end uses in small commercial buildings. This study focuses on a field study using CTA-2045–enabled water heaters to shift electric load off the peak and toward periods when renewable resources are more prevalent (e.g., near noon for solar resources and near midnight for wind resources). The following load shifting strategies were compared to understand effects on the aggregate load-shifting capabilities of Heat Pump Water Heaters (HPWHs) and on consumer hot water supply: non-targeted (traditional), targeted (grouped, with different shifting schedules) and “smart” (adaptive control commands). The results of this study show that targeted and smart control strategies yield significantly more load-shifting potential from a population of water heaters than the non-targeted approach without sacrificing hot water supply to occupants. However, as control commands become more aggressive, aggregators may face challenges in meeting consumer hot water demand. Furthermore, the findings and lessons learned can benefit electric utilities and inform updates to manufacturer controls and communications standards. The data collected may also be useful for developing and validating HPWH models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Single-pass parallel prefix scan with dynamic look back

One embodiment of the present invention performs a parallel prefix scan in a single pass that incorporates variable look-back. A parallel processing unit (PPU) subdivides a list of inputs into sequentially-ordered segments and assigns each segment to a streaming multiprocessor (SM) included in the PPU. Notably, the SMs may operate in parallel. Each SM executes write operations on a segment descriptor that includes the status, aggregate, and inclusive-prefix associated with the assigned segment. Further, each SM may execute read operations on segment descriptors associated with other segments. In operation, each SM may perform reduction operations to determine a segment-wide aggregate, may perform look-back operations across multiple preceding segments to determine an exclusive-prefix, and may perform a scan seeded with the exclusive prefix to generate output data. Advantageously, the PPU performs one read operation per input, thereby reducing the time required to execute the prefix scan relative to prior-art parallel implementations.

Merrill, Duane↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neutronic Consideration of TREAT Facility Fuel SiC Recladding

The Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility is an air-cooled reactor composed of graphite-urania fuel encapsulated in zirconium alloy canisters and surrounded by ~2 ft (~61 cm) of nuclear grade graphite. The primary role of TREAT is to provide in-pile nuclear-heated safety research via transient testing [1]. Benchmark efforts have demonstrated sensitivity of TREAT neutronics models to graphite cross section data and key neutron poisons found in the fuel assemblies [2]. During fabrication of TREAT fuel assemblies, a small concentration of boron was inadvertently introduced with variable concentration into the aggregate of fuel blocks prepared for TREAT use. The concentration of boron, and its respective uncertainty, represent the most sensitive component in a neutronics study; unfortunately, nothing can be done to reduce or otherwise mitigate its impact. Hydrogen in the fuel blocks reduces the mean free path of the core and its true quantity and uncertainty is approximated. The hydrogen remains from pitch binder used in the fuel fabrication process and was not completely released due to incomplete fuel graphitization. Destructive fuel testing is necessary to quantify the actual hydrogen content and to improve benchmark model quality. A third neutron poison of some significance is the hafnium impurity in the Zircaloy-3 (Zry-3) assembly cladding. The quantity of hafnium is expected to be within nominal manufacturing limits for nuclear grade zircaloy. Recladding the fuel assemblies with material that is less neutron absorbing is expected to benefit reactor neutron economy. Moreover, TREAT’s total transient energy is restricted based on the rate of Zry-3 oxidation in TREAT’s air coolant environment. Hence, cladding with more benign air reaction kinetics could dramatically uprate the facility’s experimental capability. Silicon carbide (SiC) has been proposed as a candidate material for recladding TREAT assemblies, as SiC/SiC demonstrate favorable properties within nuclear environments [3]. The current operational limits of TREAT are restricted by the oxidation of Zry-3. Change of the cladding to SiC could feasibly double the current temperature limitation. Recladding opportunities allow for previously damaged fuel assemblies to be returned to service, as Zry-3 is not commercially available. The initial effort required to consider proceeding with any recladding effort is to neutronically characterize key reactor parameters while replacing Zry-3 with SiC. A characterization summary, with respective results, is provided herein.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Alerga: Alert Aggregation and Reasoning in GOOSE Simulation Pipeline

IEC 61850 specifies the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) protocol as one option for low latency communication of substation-related events. Due to its strict timing requirements, GOOSE lacks any form of encryption or authentication and has only minimal integrity guarantees. These absences render the protocol vulnerable to a variety of communication anomalies, including adversarial action. In particular, an adversary with access to the substation network can launch man in the middle (MITM) attacks. We propose Alerga, a set of tools to allow operators to mitigate some of the risks of the protocol while retaining its strengths. To that end, we have developed first a GOOSE simulation pipeline including data generation, anomaly detection, alert handling, causal reasoning and data visualization components. The simulator is designed to be modular, allowing operators to swap components to better fit their network capabilities. The volume of alert traffic on a substation network threatens operators with alert fatigue. In order to combat this, we secondly present a novel form of alert aggregation and processing, offering operators a condensed view of any threats to the system. Thirdly, to facilitate the handling of these threats, our causal reasoning system traces the alerts back to their most likely cause, generating an initial hypothesis for operators to investigate.

alert aggregation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving Grid Awareness by Empowering Utilities with Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

Gap filling time series data typically depends on linear interpolation. More recently gap filling advancements include machine learning techniques. However, none leverage advanced learning approach that uses cohort training or a neighborhood informed approach, which is described in this report. The report also describes a physics informed approach using Reduced Order Models (ROM). There are several methods to capture the nature of the detailed system in aggregated models, however there is a trade-off for these methods developed for multiple applications. These methods have specific requirements and applications that includes consideration of dynamics or covering a larger range of operating conditions, etc. The various methods of aggregation are: 1) Thevenin equivalents for downstream networks 2) Equivalent feeder representation to capture downstream network losses accurately 3) Structured reduced order models for dynamics 4) System identification-based ROM (abstract dynamical model) Methods described in items 1 and 2 above are ideal for steady-state models and useful for this application. Of these two methods, based on the data availability, the targeted application, the reduced order model that is proposed to be developed is the equivalent feeder model representation. This includes a structure of the reduced order model whose parameters can be determined by the system load and losses with the meter measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI-based Cyber Event OSINT via Twitter Data

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is largely regarded as a necessary component for cybersecurity intelligence gathering to secure network systems. With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and increasing usage of social media, like Twitter, we have a unique opportunity to obtain and aggregate information from social media. In this study, we propose an AI-based scheme capable of automatically pulling information from Twitter, filtering out security-irrelevant tweets, performing natural language analysis to correlate the tweets about each cybersecurity event (e.g., a malware campaign), and validating the information. This scheme has many applications, such as providing a means for security operators to gain insight into ongoing events and helping them prioritize vulnerabilities to deal with. To give examples of the possible uses, we present three case studies demonstrating the event discovery and investigation processes.

Dale, Dakota↗

DOE OSTI2017

Building thermal model development of typical house in U.S. for virtual storage control of aggregated building loads based on limited available information

A building thermal model is an essential component for achieving optimal control of a building’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC). A self-learning grey-box model has been developed by implementing data-driven techniques and utilizing limited available information about the building. In previous research, detailed foreknown knowledge/information, e.g. physical and thermal properties of building materials, as well as sufficient number of observation points, e.g. indoor temperature sensors in different zones, are available for making the decision of model structure and parameters searching range easier. The availability of measured data and a narrowed searching range of model parameters, e.g. resistance and capacity for each wall, made the adopted algorithms quickly achieve near optimal values, which closely approximate the actual heat transfer of a building. Meanwhile, the details of pre-processing of the key inputs were seldom explained. Compared to the previous research, in this study, the available information is assumed to be limited which can fill the requirement for large scale virtual storage control of real residential community in near future, where it may be impractically or over time-consuming to acquire the detailed information for each single house. The developed model is validated by comparing the results to measured data in a recently-built home typical of the southeastern United States.

Cui, Borui↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open Source Intelligence for Cybersecurity Events via Twitter Data

Dale, Dakota↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of stereochemistry on nanoscale assembly of ABA triblock copolymers with crystallizable blocks

We report on the nanoscale assembly of poly(lactic acid)-b-poly(ethylene oxide)-b-poly(lactic acid) (PLA-PEO-PLA) triblock copolymers in water, focusing on the effect of stereochemistry, where the PLA blocks are statistical copolymers of l-lactide and d-lactide with l/d ratios of 100/0, 95/5, 90/10, 85/15, 75/25, and 50/50. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) shows a nearly constant d-spacing as concentration varies in triblock systems with l/d ratios of 90/10 and 95/5, which we attribute to inhomogeneity in the structure of these gels, supported by previous USANS and confocal microscopy studies. The SANS data fit well to a core-shell ellipsoid form factor model with a hard-sphere structure factor. Polymeric micelles with l/d ratios from 75/25 to 85/15 displayed very high aggregation numbers, consistent with a strong interaction between PLA chains and the enhanced storage modulus observed in rheological studies of these systems. While the 90/10 and 95/5 samples showed lower aggregation numbers, their SANS profiles shows close spacing between micelles, which may promote a high fraction of intermicellar bridging chains, also consistent with a higher storage modulus. Overall, these results provide insight into the micellar assembly behavior of block copolymers with a crystallizable block, and indicate that tuning stereochemistry of PLA-based block copolymers is an effective means of modifying micellar properties for specific applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics

In northern Alaska nearly 65% of the terrestrial surface is composed of polygonal ground, where geomorphic tundra landforms disproportionately influence carbon and nutrient cycling over fine spatial scales. Process-based biogeochemical models used for local to Pan-Arctic projections of ecological responses to climate change typically operate at coarse-scales (1km 2 –0.5°) at which fine-scale (<1km 2 ) tundra heterogeneity is often aggregated to the dominant land cover unit. Here, we evaluate the importance of tundra heterogeneity for representing soil carbon dynamics at fine to coarse spatial scales. We leveraged the legacy of data collected near Utqiagvik, Alaska between 1973 and 2016 for model initiation, parameterization, and validation. Simulation uncertainty increased with a reduced representation of tundra heterogeneity and coarsening of spatial scale. Hierarchical cluster analysis of an ensemble of 21 st -century simulations reveals that a minimum of two tundra landforms (dry and wet) and a maximum of 4km 2 spatial scale is necessary for minimizing uncertainties (<10%) in regional to Pan-Arctic modeling applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential use of engineered nanoparticles in ocean fertilization for large-scale atmospheric carbon dioxide removal

Artificial ocean fertilization (AOF) aims to safely stimulate phytoplankton growth in the ocean and enhance carbon sequestration. AOF carbon sequestration efficiency appears lower than natural ocean fertilization processes due mainly to the low bioavailability of added nutrients, along with low export rates of AOF-produced biomass to the deep ocean. Here we explore the potential application of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) to overcome these issues. Data from 123 studies show that some ENPs may enhance phytoplankton growth at concentrations below those likely to be toxic in marine ecosystems. ENPs may also increase bloom lifetime, boost phytoplankton aggregation and carbon export, and address secondary limiting factors in AOF. Life-cycle assessment and cost analyses suggest that net CO 2 capture is possible for iron, SiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 ENPs with costs of 2–5 times that of conventional AOF, whereas boosting AOF efficiency by ENPs should substantially enhance net CO 2 capture and reduce these costs. Therefore, ENP-based AOF can be an important component of the mitigation strategy to limit global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields using load estimations via state observers

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields usually involves temporal superposition of its characteristic g-function, using load aggregation schemes to reduce computational times. Assuming that the ground has linear properties, it can be modeled as a linear state space system where the states are the aggregated loads. However, the application and accuracy of these models is compromised when the borefield is already operating and its load history is not registered or there are gaps in the data. This paper assesses the performance of state observers to estimate the borefield load history and obtain accurate fluid predictions. Results show that both Time-Varying Kalman Filter (TVKF) and Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE) provide predictions with average and maximum errors below 0.1 $^\circ C$ and 1 $^\circ C$ respectively. MHE outperforms TVKF in terms of n-step ahead output predictions and load history profile at the expenses of about 5 times more computational time.

Figueroa, Iago C.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

Abstract. Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable–region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is unlikely that a single evaluation measure for all variables in an IAM exists, and therefore sector-by-sector evaluation may be necessary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Building Archetypes for Los Angeles (2100 Projection)

This dataset (Data.zip) includes empirical and machine learning-generated building information for the Los Angeles urban region. The MAv1_LA.csv file provides the baseline 2015 building data while Final_IECC_LO_2100_GAN.csv represents generative adversarial network-projected urban morphologies for the year 2100. Building archetypes were created for both datasets (Basecase_LA_Archetype.csv and LA_Simulation_2100_GAN_Archetype.csv) using footprint area as the key aggregation variable. More details about the dataset are provided in the attached readme file (README_LA_Archetype_MAv1.txt)

AutoBEM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗