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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Conceptual Design of a Tension Leg Platform With 22.3 MW Vertical Axis Turbine

Here, this paper presents the conceptual design of a tension leg platform (TLP) for the ARCUS “towerless” vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT). VAWTs are ideal for floating offshore sites and have several advantages over horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWT) including reduced top mass, lower center of gravity, increased energy capture, and in turn lower cost. The towerless ARCUS VAWT drives these advantages further through increased structural efficiency and by enabling more optimized TLP designs with simplified installation procedures. For hull sizing, we have studied three turbine sizes with corresponding power ratings of 5.1 MW, 10.4 MW and 22.3 MW. The largest turbine was identified as having the greatest potential to reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and is the reference size used for the further detailed design process. The conceptual design of the VAWT TLP has been awarded with an ABS Approval in Principle Certificate. This paper contains brief analysis results and design findings for a TLP designed to house a VAWT, including the following topics: • Applicable Design Codes • Metocean Conditions • ARCUS Turbine Loads • Design Load Cases and Requirements - Pre-service TLP Stability - In-place TLP Global Performance • Platform Configurations, Hull Structure Scantling Design, Weight and CG Estimation, and General Arrangement Drawings • Hull Ballast Plan for both Pre-service and In-place Conditions • Pre-service Quayside Integration, Transportation and Wet Tow Stability Analysis • Global Performance Analysis for Motions and Tendon tensions • Summary of cost components and system levelized cost of energy

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Efficiency and Low-Carbon Energy Storage and Power Generation System for Electric Aviation

This report summarizes the work performed by University of California San Diego (UCSD) – Honeywell Aerospace (Honeywell) team for the U.S. Department of Energy/Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (DOE/ARPA-E) under Phase 1 (April 2021 – October 2023) project, Cooperative Agreement DE-AR0001347 entitled “High-Efficiency and Low-Carbon Energy Storage and Power Generation System for Electric Aviation”. The main objective of this project is to develop and demonstrate an energy storage and power generation (ESPG) system operating on bio liquid natural gas (LNG) for electric aviation applications. The ESPG system concept in this project is a fuel cell, battery, and gas turbine hybrid system that incorporates an innovative solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology. This SOFC technology has two main novel elements: (i) a lightweight and compact stack architecture that consists of cells and cell modules in electrical parallel and series connections (the module design) and (ii) exceptionally high performance, direct methane thin-film cells on porous substrate made by sputtering deposition process. This fuel cell has the specific power and volumetric power density suitable for electric aviation applications. Based on the current status of the SOFC technology, the Phase 1 work focused on the following activities: (i) ESPG System Modeling – to design and optimize an aircraft SOFC-based ESPG system concept that met the performance, weight and cost targets; (ii) Cell Material Development and Scaleup – to demonstrate scalability of the sputtering process for manufacture of thin-film SOFC cells of practical sizes, confirm the exceptional performance of sputtered cells, improve cell stability and durability for operation with hydrogen and methane fuel, and develop a suitable electrically conducting porous substrate to replace the current non-conducting ceramic substrate; (iii) Stack Development – to design and manufacture stack components for the stack architecture, evaluate and select a suitable sealant, and build and operate multi-cell stacks to demonstrate stack operation, and (iv) Technology to Market – to develop business models and commercialization plans, conduct various market and technology analysis and estimate SOFC and ESPG system costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biological Valorization of Natural Gas for the Production of Lactic Acid: Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment

Due to the availability of natural gas, shale gas, and flared gas, there is increased interest in converting methane in these gases into commodity chemicals via cost-effective and sustainable processes. Recently, we have demonstrated an efficient process concept converting methane to lactic acid (LA) by methanotrophic bacteria with high carbon flux, pivoting potentials for commercialization. Herein, we present a first-of-kind conceptual design and a techno-economic analysis (TEA) of a biorefinery process with calculated minimum selling prices. This study includes both sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis for key cost drivers and for projecting path forwards in research and development. The analyses reveal that the conversion efficiency, LA product titer, LA productivity, and gas flow rate have the most significant impacts on cost. The MSP varies from $5.83-$2.17/kg LA depending on these key process attributes. Further, a life cycle assessment of this process concept is evaluated and compared to understand the sustainable aspects. In this TEA study, the bio-upgrading process from natural gas to LA presents a potentially promising approach in terms of the feedstock versatility, economic viability, and environmental impact.

BIOMASS FUELS,NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector and Implications for Low-Cost Hydrogen Production from Water Electrolysis

Increasing development of wind and solar generation in the power sector can create economic opportunities for the deployment of water electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. Temporal variation in the marginal cost of energy in future decarbonized grids can make it favorable for electrolyzers to dispatchably ramp hydrogen production up and down in response to low- and high-cost times. Using this strategy, low-cost hydrogen production is enabled by electrolyzers that are low-capital cost and tolerant to frequent on/off cycling. Ramping down hydrogen production to a designated turndown ratio can avoid performance degradation caused by on/off cycling by not shutting the electrolyzer completely off. This comes with a slight cost penalty which can be minimized if the turndown ratio is low (i.e., the system ramps down hydrogen production to close to zero). These results suggest that electrolyzers integrated into future power systems are likely to benefit from the ability to ramp operation up and down quickly and operate in a standby mode. This analysis forms a basis for comparative tradeoffs between electrolyzer capital cost, operating strategy, and system durability and demonstrates the importance of considering all three factors in technoeconomic analysis.

capital cost↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water Management Cost Assessment of CO2 Storage Operations

A three panel poster providing an analysis of treatment of produced waters from potential CO2 storage reservoirs. Selected water treatment technologies are modeled for several formations in five sedimentary basins in the lower 48 states assessing storage costs across a range of water quality present in these potential CO2 storage reservoirs.

Wendt, Anna↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Greenfield Geothermal Hybrid Power Plants using a Solar or Natural Gas Steam Topping Cycle

The relatively low generation costs associated with wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and natural-gas power plants make it challenging for geothermal power plants to produce and sell the power that has the reliability and sustainability characteristics that are greatly needed in U.S. power markets. This is especially true for geothermal resources with low-to-medium temperatures, which results in relatively low-thermal efficiency and generation costs that are higher than those for wind, solar PV, and natural gas. This analysis evaluates solar thermal- and natural-gas combustion waste heat recovery-based topping cycle hybridization of geothermal binary power plants. This approach provides several benefits that may allow geothermal power plants to generate power at more competitive costs. First, the addition of solar thermal energy or natural-gas combustion waste heat input to a geothermal power plant provides additional heat input that can be converted to electrical power. Second, the temperature level of the heat obtained from concentrating solar collectors or natural-gas combustion exhaust is higher than that of geothermal heat, which provides opportunities for improving the efficiency of the conversion of thermal energy to electrical power. Third, the ease with which solar thermal systems integrate with energy storage and the flexibility of natural gas means power generation can occur during peak demand periods. The hybrid cycles are compared to equivalently sized, co-located, independent geothermal, concentrating solar, and/or natural-gas power plants. The hybrid cycle tends to produce slightly more power than the standalone plants combined. However, the hybrid plant Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is slightly higher than the LCOE of the combined standalone power plants for each of the case study locations investigated. Using the steam-topping cycle, organic Rankine cycle (ORC)-bottoming cycle hybrid plant design to combine a solar thermal resource and low- temperature geothermal resource (<120 degrees C) leads to a hybrid plant with a lower LCOE than a standalone geothermal-only system. Thus, hybrid plants may enable the economic development of geothermal resources in locations with low geothermal resource temperatures. However, in areas with higher geothermal resource temperatures (>120 degrees C), the geothermal-only plant has a lower LCOE than the hybrid cycle and thus could be developed without the need for solar heat addition. iv A geothermal-natural-gas reciprocating engine hybrid plant was evaluated for an Elk Hills, California case study location. The Elk Hills case study analysis indicates that when the natural-gas engine operates for more than 12 hours per day the hybrid plant can produce power at an LCOE lower than a standalone geothermal plant, and comparable to that of the standalone natural-gas reciprocating engine, while also reducing the carbon intensity of the power generated relative to the standalone natural-gas engine. This may represent a scenario in which the hybrid plant provides an opportunity for the deployment of a low-temperature geothermal resource that otherwise may have an LCOE too high to develop and operate as a standalone resource, while also reducing the carbon intensity of natural-gas generation sources. A "triple-hybrid" plant that combines natural gas, solar thermal, thermal energy storage, and geothermal was also investigated. A natural-gas combustion turbine (NGCT) is added to the geothermal-solar hybrid such that the hot exhaust gas from the gas turbine provides an alternative source of heat to the steam turbine of the hybrid cycle. Analysis results suggest that the triple-hybrid plant has a significantly higher energy generation and revenue than a standalone NGCT or the original geothermal-solar hybrid. The triple-hybrid design benefits most from using a smaller solar field so that the solar energy can be dispatched at the most valuable times available. The triple-hybrid plant also has a lower LCOE than the standalone NGCT. The triple-hybrid plant was evaluated making simple assumptions about the dispatch profile of the gas cycle, and more nuanced and realistic dispatching schedules should be analyzed in future work.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar and Storage Techno-Economic Analysis Tutorial for the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

This tutorial will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) technology trends and manufacturing costs, project levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and project levelized cost of solar plus storage (LCOSS) for systems across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global PV supply chain and 2021 benchmark input data for NREL's crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. The framework that we follow and will review during this tutorial provides a methodology to prepare bottom-up manufacturing cost models including the items within the U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review input data and methods useful for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, &A) expenses. This 2021 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film module manufacturing. We will also review methods for our 2021 system benchmark costs calculations and LCOE technoeconomic analysis of PV systems and solar plus storage systems. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. Techniques for comparing LCOE performance will also be reviewed. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.

cost models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Analysis and Effective Parametrization of PEM Fuel Cell Models

The cost of proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) remains a major hurdle in large-scale commercialization of this technology. To improve their performance and reduce cost, novel materials and electrode designs are continuously envisioned, e.g., non-PGM catalyst layers, ultra-thin Pt/Pt-Ni based catalyst layers, structured ionomer arrays or NSTF catalyst layers.1 Understanding the impact of these improvement strategies can be extremely time and cost intensive due to complex physical phenomena and large design space. We have previously developed a PEMFC modeling framework2 which has been a time and cost effective tool for understanding and optimizing the complex multi-physics phenomena within PEMFCs; however, several of the cell parameters used in the modeling have large spread in measured data.3 Furthermore, several transport parameters such as water adsorption kinetics have not been accurately measured and the approximations are spread over several orders of magnitude. These uncertainties cause problems in ascertaining accuracy of the modeling approach and they reduce the predictive power of the numerical models. The aim of this work is to identify the sensitivity of PEFC numerical model outputs to various input parameters. The previously in-house developed MEA modeling framework2 is used for PEMFC modeling. The sensitivity of the model outputs with respect to inputs parameters is obtained by analyzing the condition numbers for different output-input pairs at varying operating conditions. An example of the sensitivity analysis is shown in Figure 1. The condition numbers are obtained for the entire possible range of input parameters at varying operating conditions to identify the most crucial parameters of the PEMFC model. Based on our preliminary analysis, parameters related to kinetics (exchange current density and ECSA) and heat/water management in electrodes and ionomer (ionomer fraction, thermal conductivity) are most crucial. One of the major goals of this work is to identify the most crucial set of parameters towards which the model shows maximum sensitivity. This will guide future experimentalists to measure these properties with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis will also enable us to optimize the PEMFC performance by selectively targeting the most sensitive parameters and thereby making the largest impact. Acknowledgements The work is funded under the Fuel Cell Performance and Durability Consortium (FC-PAD), by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors would like to thank Nathan Craig at Robert Bosch LLC for his valuable input in designing the sensitivity analysis. The authors would also like to thank Giovanna Bucci and Matthias Hanauer at Robert Bosch for their valuable inputs and discussion. References P. K. Sinha, W. Gu, A. Kongkanand and E. Thompson, J. Electrochem. Soc., 158, B831 (2011). L. M. Pant, M. R. Gerhardt, N. Macauley, R. Mukundan, R. L. Borup and A. Z. Weber, Electrochim. Acta, 326, 134963 (2019). R. Vetter and J. O. Schumacher, ArXiv181110091 Phys. (2018). Figure 1

Pant, Lalit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Economic perspective of ethanol and biodiesel coproduction from industrial hemp

Herein, the economics of producing biofuels from an industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa) genotype e 19m96136 was investigated. A lignocellulosic biofuel plant, hourly consuming 85 metric tons of hemp biomass was modeled in SuperPro Designer®. The integrated bioenergy plant produced hemp biodiesel and bioethanol from lipids and carbohydrates, respectively. The structural composition of the industrial hemp plant was analyzed in a previous study. The data obtained was used to simulate feedstock composition in SuperPro Designer®. The simulation results indicated that Hemp containing 2% lipids can yield up to 3.95 million gallons of biodiesel annually. On improving biomass lipid content to 5 and 10%, biodiesel production increased to 9.88 and 19.91 million gallons, respectively. The breakeven unit production cost of hemp biodiesel with 2, 5, and 10% lipid containing hemp was $18.49, $7.87, and $4.13/gallon, respectively. The biodiesel unit production cost when utilizing 10% lipid-containing hemp was comparable to soybean biodiesel at $4.13/ gallon. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed the possibility of a 7.80% reduction in unit production cost upon a 10% reduction in hemp feedstock cost. Furthermore, industrial hemp was capable of pro- ducing between 307.80 and 325.82 gallons of total biofuels per hectare of agricultural land than soybean.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving the Productivity and Performance of Large-Scale Integrated Algal Systems for Wastewater Treatment and Biofuel Production

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate an integrated system for algal biofuel production system and wastewater treatment that can produce low-cost drop-in biofuels. Experimental data and techno-economic analysis showed the ability to produce drop-in biofuels from wastewater derived algal biomass at a cost of $3.32 and identified methods to further reduce costs. In particular, when accounting for wastewater treatment cost savings relative to conventional processes, the proposed integrated system can support a negative minimum fuel selling price. This means the normal costs of wastewater treatment are sufficient to cover all the costs of biofuel production with the integrated system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Greenfield Geothermal Hybrid Power Plants using a Solar or Natural Gas Steam Topping Cycle

The relatively low generation costs associated with wind, solar PV, and natural gas power plants make it challenging for geothermal power plants to produce and sell the power that has the reliability and sustainability characteristics that are greatly needed in US power markets. This is especially true for geothermal resources with low to medium temperatures, which results in relatively low thermal efficiency and generation costs that are higher than those for wind, solar PV, and natural gas. This analysis evaluates solar thermal- and natural gas combustion waste heat recovery-based topping cycle hybridization of geothermal binary power plants. This approach provides several benefits that may allow geothermal power plants to generate power at more competitive costs. First, the addition of solar thermal energy or natural gas combustion waste heat input to a geothermal power plant provides additional heat input that can be converted to electrical power. Second, the temperature level of the heat obtained from concentrating solar collectors or natural gas combustion exhaust is higher than that of geothermal heat, which provides opportunities for improving the efficiency of the conversion of thermal energy to electrical power. Third, the ease with which solar thermal systems integrate with energy storage and the flexibility of natural gas means power generation can occur during peak demand periods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The ABCs of On-Demand Transit (ODT)

On-demand mobility - also referred to as on-demand transit (ODT) - is a form of public mobility that is flexible with respect to where and when service is provided, and ODT deployments have increased significantly in recent years. Transit agencies are becoming increasingly interested in ODT, and due to differing definitions and various service design and business model options, it can be difficult to learn about the emerging industry. This work provides an overview of the definitions of ODT, recent trends internationally and in the U.S., ODT's benefits and challenges (particularly compared to fixed-route transit), three primary service design options, system costs and funding considerations, and a metrics framework for evaluating ODT systems to ensure continued successful performance. Identified benefits include increased service areas, short ride and wait times, increased user flexibility, potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions through shared trips and smaller, right-sized vehicles, increased safety and comfort through door-to-door service, and rich data streams including granular spatio-temporal data that can be analyzed to continuously improve the service. Challenges include scaling ODT service up as small increases in ridership require additional supply to keep service quality high, serving peak times including keeping low wait times, the lack of fixed schedule being challenging for commuters, integrating ODT services with nearby transit systems, and equity for riders without smartphones who cannot track the vehicle in a mobile app. Finally, an overview of seven ODT case studies (in Texas, Missouri, New York, and Ontario, Canada) performed by NREL and related analysis of travel time, energy and emissions, costs, and equity are presented. Initial key findings include: ODT can be cost- and energy-effective compared to fixed-route transit, ODT serves more people than other transit options, and ODT system deployments can be followed by rapid growth.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground Source Heat Pump Screening Tool and Related Resources

This archive contains both a link to Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) Screening Tool and related resources documenting its development, technical features, and applications. The web-based screening tool is a techno-economic analysis resource designed to evaluate the feasibility, costs, and benefits of implementing GSHP systems in buildings across various U.S. climate zones. It is intended for use by building owners, HVAC system designers, and installers to support decision-making in residential and commercial applications, incorporating advanced modeling capabilities such as ground heat exchanger design. The included resources detail the tool's creation and use, covering topics such as innovative ground heat exchanger design methodologies, the development of an open library of g-functions for borehole configurations, and studies on GSHP performance and economic viability in retrofitting single-family homes.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case

Poster on “CO2 Storage Economic Analysis: CarbonSAFE Use Case” for the CCUS 2025 conference held in Houston, Texas March 3-5, 2025. The cost of designing, permitting, constructing, operating, and closing a CO2 storage project is of vital importance to project developers. The National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed the NRAP/SMART Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) Model to provide quantitative cost-based insights to support developers planning CO2 injection and storage projects. This study presents a collaborative economic analysis applying TALES with data from the San Juan Basin CarbonSAFE Phase III project led by the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology to estimate potential costs incurred during the implementation of a real-world commercial-scale carbon storage project. Scenario analysis was implemented in which different operational and cost attributes were varied and the associated cost implications observed. Key results data and project cost summary metrics, first-year breakeven price of CO2 ($/tonne) and net present value (NPV), are presented for base and alternative cases. Output provides a unique perspective for project stakeholders towards evaluating the influence of different operational strategies and financing approaches on overall project cost and financial viability.

carbon storage↗
DOE OSTI2021

TEA Modeling to Quantify Economic Implications for Biorefinery Processing of Isolated Anatomical Fractions of Corn Stover

The Feedstock-Conversion Interface Consortium (FCIC; https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/01/f70/beto-fcic-overview-web.pdf), a collaboration of nine national laboratory partners, seeks to understand impacts of feedstock attributes on biorefinery performance. It is hypothesized that different individual anatomical fractions of corn stover vary in composition and recalcitrance, such that processing each fraction on its own through dedicated campaigns may enable better biorefinery economics overall relative to processing the whole stover material. This presentation focuses on techno-economic analysis (TEA) modeling to quantify the yield and cost ramifications for processing isolated anatomical fractions of corn stover through a low-temperature conversion biorefinery, reflecting a biochemical processing pathway consisting of biomass deconstruction through pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis, sugar fermentation and upgrading to hydrocarbon fuels, and lignin upgrading to value-added coproducts. Commercial-scale process simulation and economic evaluation leveraged experimental and analytical data from FCIC researchers for conversion of whole corn stover plus three individual anatomical fractions (cobs, husks, and stalks) across key steps of the conversion process. Our assessment found encouraging potential for biorefinery economic gains that may be achieved through this approach. TEA results indicated fuel yields varying from 29-44 gallons gasoline equivalent (GGE)/dry ton for the individual anatomical fractions compared to whole stover at 34 GGE/ton, equating to minimum fuel selling prices (MFSPs) between $6.37-$10.18/GGE for the fractions versus $8.76/GGE for whole stover (when lignin is burned), or $9.15-$15.19/GGE for the fractions versus $13.11/GGE for whole stover (when lignin is upgraded to coproducts, based on current experimental performance levels). Cobs and husks demonstrated the ability to achieve the highest fuel yields and lowest MFSPs, outperforming whole stover, while stalks led to the opposite result, as a composite reflection of compositional differences and process convertibility. Notably, even when taking the weighted average of the results reflecting each anatomical fraction weighted by its corresponding makeup of corn stover, this feasibility TEA screening supports feedstock cost allowances on the order of roughly $22-$29/ton as may reflect accommodating additional biomass fractionation equipment during feedstock pre-processing upstream of the conversion biorefinery gate to separate corn stover into such constituent fractions. Or viewed differently, the weighted average MFSP for the fractions was found to be $0.31-$0.32/GGE lower than the MFSP for the whole stover basis across either lignin scenario, when maintaining a fixed biomass feedstock cost. These findings highlight favorable implications for biorefinery economics as may be achieved by moving to a staged campaign approach for processing different corn stover fractions sequentially. Further opportunities exist for future work to fill in data gaps for remaining anatomical constituents (e.g. leaves) that were not included in the initial experimental studies, though are expected to maintain similar trends.

biochemical processing pathway↗
DOE OSTI2021

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Rational Design of Robust Reactor Feeding Systems for Heterogeneous Cellulosic and Agricultural Wastes Based on Biomass Quality Characteristics

Consistent and reliable preprocessing, conveyance, and reactor in-feed systems, particularly for low-cost waste feedstocks, remains a major technical challenge for the emerging Bioeconomy. By identifying critical biomass attributes and connecting them to flow and conversion behavior, science-driven system designs can address these often-overlooked solids handling challenges. The Wonderful Company (TWC) is the world's largest almond and pistachio grower, generating 250,000 dry tons/year of waste material including hulls, shells, and wood (>5 million tons/year industry wide in the U.S.). This project seeks to turn this environmental and economic liability into a sustainable and profitable resource, targeting conversion via gasification to syngas for electricity and bio-char, by addressing related material handling and feeding challenges. Based on optimized preprocessing strategies, bulk material flow, and thermal conversion properties, an overall system design will be developed. The methodology will be tested with FCIC's benchmark loblolly pine residues, to demonstrate the robustness of the overall approach and provide insight and guidance for future systems. The project will culminate in extended field trials to demonstrate an improved continuous feeding system with a commercial biomass-to-electricity gasifier vendor, and an economic analysis demonstrating a reduction in electricity production costs by maximizing on-stream time while minimizing preprocessing and CapEx costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Do Mandates Deliver Cost Reductions for Energy Storage?

In 2013, California implemented a mandate directing the state’s investor-owned utilities to procure 1325 MW of energy storage, to help integrate nondispatchable renewable sources of energy and assist the state in meeting its environmental goals. This paper evaluates this policy’s impact of both battery deployment, and cost, finding that as of 2019, the state was effective in spurring nearly 500 MWh of battery storage deployment over what would have been installed in absence of the policy. This additive deployment would have the effect of reducing global battery cell costs by roughly $1.00/ kWh, based on learning by doing. To support these findings, we utilize both a difference in differences estimation, and a synthetic control analysis, both of which allow us to compare battery deployment in California, to deployment in other states. To pair deployment to cost reduction, we use a learning curve analysis, which links battery shipments to cell and storage block costs. For policymakers, these results provide evidence to the effectiveness of mandates in promoting storage deployment and help explain how these policies can induce downstream effects.

Boff, Daniel S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Security-by-Design: Light Water Small Modular Reactor

The growing demand for nuclear power is increasing pressure to find solutions to cost prohibitive requirements of both construction and security. Offsite response has been proposed as an option to reduce costs associated with training and maintaining an onsite response force. A previous report explored this option and revealed that security could be provided at the required level, but cost savings was not a result of this methodology. An offsite response strategy required costly active and passive delay barriers to provide sufficient time for responders to muster and deploy to a site in time to interrupt a determined and well-equipped adversary. Also, contrary to the hypothesis, the number of responders required for this strategy exceeded that needed for an onsite response force, as the adversaries could avail themselves of advantageous positions within the facility to repel arriving responders. This report builds upon the previous evaluation by using the same hypothetical light water small modular reactor (LWSMR) facility model, but this time an onsite response strategy was assessed. The goal of this analysis was to show that an onsite response strategy could be implemented effectively at a cost point that removes barriers within the industry at this critical time of growth and development. The assessment of the facility design and response strategy was completed through modeling using Scribe3D© and subsequent scenario analysis over the course of a two-day tabletop exercise. Subject matter experts in nuclear security, nuclear facility design, and response strategy and tactics contributed to the effort to ensure accurate representation of hypothetical scenarios. Several adaptations were made to the layout of the LWSMR based on lessons learned during the first day of scenario analysis. The subsequent design evaluated on the second day proved to provide a robust response posture against a large and well-trained adversary force. This report details the process of the analysis and compares the cost of the final facility design with that of the LWSMR model used for evaluation of offsite response. Ultimately, the results of this effort indicate that, when implemented correctly, an onsite response strategy is the best option from a security and cost perspective.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗