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At least 955 records · Page 53

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DOE OSTI2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding changes in cloud simulations from E3SM version 1 to version 2

Abstract. This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals, CLUBB); microphysical parameterization (MG2); and deep-convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regimes, where the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning done in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to an improved SWCRE and longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the SO. They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than CLUBB tuning and ZM tuning do. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) diagnostic tool as well as sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit future E3SM developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA

Abstract. Careful allotment of water resources for irrigation is critical for ensuring the resiliency of agriculture in semiarid regions, and modernizing irrigation technology to minimize inefficient water losses is an important tool for farmers and agricultural economies. While modernizing irrigation technology can achieve reductions in the nonbeneficial use of water, such as bare soil evaporation and nonconsumptive losses, water returned to the landscape is also reduced, often eliminating flow paths that other users rely on. In basins using a combination of surface and groundwater, replenishing aquifer storage by the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) of seasonally available water can mitigate the aquifer drawdown that results from reduced recharge when irrigation efficiency is improved. We examine the effects of MAR on the system-scale efficiency of modernizing irrigation technology and the resulting changes in the reuse of nonconsumptive losses, using a macroscale hydrologic model applied to the semiarid upper Snake River basin (USRB) of western Wyoming and southern Idaho, USA. Irrigation technologies were represented explicitly in the model, and available data informed baseline parameterizations of the irrigation technology. A suite of parameterizations were simulated that updated the existing technologies to be more efficient, both with and without sufficient MAR to cause a stabilization of the aquifer at the present-day head. As expected, simulated changes in irrigation technology resulted in greater downstream export of pristine water and a higher rate of aquifer drawdown when MAR was not simulated. Under current water use and cropping patterns, we were not able to simulate aquifer stabilization and maintain discharge downstream at any level of irrigation efficiency. We found support for the hypothesis that, as efficiency improves, less MAR is required to maintain a stable aquifer than when return flows are reduced due to increased efficiency. To evaluate the hypothesis, we defined the management benefit as a metric that compared the difference between the change in irrigation's net recharge and the change in MAR required as irrigation technology became more efficient. The metric generally indicated that less MAR was needed than net recharge was lost, but only for the most efficient case did the management benefit exceed the MAR needed at the baseline to stabilize the aquifer. Increasing efficiency of irrigation technology reduced the reuse of the gross irrigation derived from prior nonconsumptive losses, but simulating MAR increased reuse for a given parameterization, leading to higher effective irrigation efficiency. We find that local groundwater storage that users depend on is generally more sensitive to management decisions than downstream flows, and the drawdown of the aquifer without MAR always exceeded any decrease in discharge induced by MAR. Improving resource sufficiency in semiarid systems like the USRB will require an array of solutions that will need to balance benefits to local and downstream users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Panama Rainforest Changes with Experimental Drought (PaRChED): Initial Effects of Partial Throughfall Exclusion on Soil Dynamics in Lowland Forests Across Variation in Rainfall and Soil Fertility

Changes in rainfall are predicted across tropical regions, with effects on nutrient, water, and carbon cycling. This chapter summarizes results from the first two years of a throughfall exclusion experiment in four lowland Panamanian forests that span a 1,000-mm change in rainfall and variation in soil fertility. Soil respiration (i.e., soil carbon dioxide [CO2 ] flux) declined with throughfall exclusion, with a site*season interaction, and the radiocarbon age of respired carbon was older in exclusion versus control plots. The decline in soil CO2 flux could be related to reduced fine root production and soil microbial biomass. Microbial community composition also changed with throughfall exclusion in infertile soils, and soil nutrients accumulated more in exclusion versus control plots during the dry season. The net effects on soil carbon storage will depend on the relative strengths of these effects over time. Continued research could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks with changes in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Comparative changes in plasma protein concentration, hematocrit and plasma volume during exercise, bedrest and + Gz acceleration.

Discussion of experiments which indicate that under conditions of a constant red cell volume the proportional changes in hematocrit and plasma volume during exercise are never equal. On the basis of direct measurements and calculated changes of plasma volume it is concluded that during maximal exercise there is a small loss of protein from the plasma. It is clear that changes in content of blood constituents can only be evaluated correctly after determination of changes in plasma volume.

Van Beaumont, W.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Thermal modeling of phase change solidification in thermal control devices including natural convection effects

Natural convection effects in phase change thermal control devices were studied. A mathematical model was developed to evaluate natural convection effects in a phase change test cell undergoing solidification. Although natural convection effects are minimized in flight spacecraft, all phase change devices are ground tested. The mathematical approach to the problem was to first develop a transient two-dimensional conduction heat transfer model for the solidification of a normal paraffin of finite geometry. Next, a transient two-dimensional model was developed for the solidification of the same paraffin by a combined conduction-natural-convection heat transfer model. Throughout the study, n-hexadecane (n-C16H34) was used as the phase-change material in both the theoretical and the experimental work. The models were based on the transient two-dimensional finite difference solutions of the energy, continuity, and momentum equations.

Ukanwa, A. O.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A preliminary evaluation of land use mapping and change detection capabilities using an ERTS image covering a portion of the CARETS region

The author has identified the following significant results. A preliminary study on the capabilities of ERTS data in land use mapping and change detection was carried out in the area around Frederick County, Maryland, which lies in the northwest corner of the Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site. The investigation has revealed that Level 1 (of the Anderson classification system) land use mapping can be performed and that, in some cases, land undergoing change can be identified. Results to date suggest that more work should be done in areas where land use changes are known to exist, in order to establish some form of base for recognizing the spectral signature indicative of change areas.

Fitzpatrick, K. A.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Change in land use in the Phoenix (1:250,000) Quadrangle, Arizona between 1970 and 1972: Successful use of proposed land use classification system

Changes in land use in the Phoenix (1:250,000 scale) Quadrangle in Arizona have been mapped using only the images from ERTS-1, tending to verify the utility of a land use classification system proposed for use with ERTS images. The period of change investigated was from November 1970 to late summer or early fall, 1972. Seasonal changes also were studied using successive ERTS images. Types of equipment used to aid interpretation included a color additive viewer, a twenty-power magnifier, a density slicer, and a diazo copy machine for making ERTS color composites in hard copy. Types of changes detected have been: (1) cropland or rangeland developed for new residential areas; (2) rangeland converted to new cropland; and (3) possibly new areas of industrial or commercial development. A map of land use previously compiled from air photos was updated in this manner.

Place, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Effects of wall admittance changes on duct transmission and radiation of sound.

This paper is concerned with the effect of changes in duct wall acoustic properties on the transmission of sound through ducts. Two special problems are considered. The first problem is that of a rectangular infinite-length duct with airflow and a single change in duct wall acoustic admittance. The second problem is that of an axisymmetric field in a finite circular duct without airflow and with an arbitrary number of duct wall acoustic admittance changes. Results for the first problem show the effect of wall admittance change and flow on the acoustic power transmission within the duct. Results for the second problem show the interactive effects of multiple duct liner sections on power radiated from a finite duct.

Lansing, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1973

How to lose Rb, K, and change the K/Rb ratio - An experimental study

Thermal volatilization studies on Apollo 16 soils and crystalline rocks have been carried out to measure the depletion of K, Rb, and Na and changes in K/Rb ratios during heating under vacuum. Rubidium can be lost from both soils and rocks at temperatures as low as 1000 C. Because of the greater volatility of Rb as compared to K, the K/Rb ratio can be changed from normal values of 330-360 for the Apollo 16 samples to values as high as 1100 by thermal volatilization. Rapid heating experiments on soil samples were carried out to approximate agglutinate formation conditions in order to measure changes in alkali element abundances. Equal changes in K/Rb ratios can be produced with longer heating at lower temperatures or heating at higher temperatures for shorter times.

Gibson, E. K., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Electrolyte concentration changes during operation of the nickel cadmium cell

The concentration and distribution of aqueous potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte in a sealed nickel cadmium cell is considered. The reactions at both electrodes during charge and discharge involve the production or utilization of hydroxyl ion (OH) or water (H2O) which directly affects concentration. Changes in electrolyte concentration relative to the individual electrode reactions is discussed. Quantitative values are provided for the changes in concentration for 6, 12, and 20 ah cells with accepted quantities of precharge and accepted initial quantity of 31% aqueous KOH. Consideration is given to a more correct equation which includes net changes in hydroxyl concentration in addition to water. Also, expected concentrations of electrolyte in cells in the fully charged, 75% charged, 50% charged, 25% charged and discharged condition are calculated. The expected concentration changes for cells in the accelerated tests are also tabulated and compared with measured values. All calculations are made on the assumption that there are no side reactions. Various properties which depend on KOH concentration are listed. The variables include O2, H2, and Cd(OH)2 solubilities in addition to viscosity and conductivity.

Halpert, G.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Analysis of changes in leg volume parameters, and orthostatic tolerance in response to lower body negative pressure during 28-days exposure to zero gravity Skylab 2

The design of the leg volume measuring system employed for the M092 portion of the Skylab missions required the development of a system sensitive to large and small volume changes at the calf of the leg. These changes in volume were produced in response to the orthostatic stress of a Lower Body Negative Pressure Device (LBNPD) or by venous occlusion. The cardiovascular responses of the Apollo crewman associated with the postflight evaluations indicate varying decrements of orthostatic tolerance. The postflight changes indicate a slightly diminished ability of the cardiovascular system to function effectively against gravity following exposure to weightlessness. The objective of the Skylab LBNP experiments (M092) was to provide information about the magnitude and time course of the cardiovascular changes associated with prolonged periods of exposure to weightlessness. The equipment, signal processing, and analysis of the leg volume data obtained from the M092 experiment of the Skylab 2 Mission are described.

Barnett, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Earth-based observations of Martian albedo changes

The large-scale albedo features of Mars, as observed with Earth-based telescopes, undergo secular changes, cyclic seasonal changes, seemingly random day-to-day changes, and cyclic diurnal changes. The suspension or redistribution of dust may be involved in all four. Some of the recent findings, based on extensive new Earth-based data, are at variance with classical ideas. Current methods of observation and analysis need to be pursued until all Martian seasons have been equally sampled.

Baum, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Fluctuations in O2 stores and gas exchange with passive changes in posture

The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of changes in posture on oxygen transfer at the mouth and pulmonary capillary membrane and to observe concomitant subtle changes in ventilation under specified assumptions. Breath-by-breath calculations are carried out with a box-balloon spirometer and mass spectrometer. Measurements are made before, during, and after passive tilt to 60 deg and on return to recumbency after 10 min erect. It is found that from supine to upright oxygen stores in the lung increases rapidly and oxygen stores in the blood drops slowly, creating a net deficit in oxygen transfer at the mouth of 130 ml in 10 min. Changes in oxygen stores in the blood result from shifts in blood volume and flow more than from changes in cardiac output. Refilling of oxygen stores in the blood is found to cause transient hypoxia with substantial hyperpnea.

Loeppky, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Climatic change on Mars and Earth

Work on climatic changes of Mars is reviewed and related to terrestrial problems. In particular the dust storms of Mars are discussed since these represent the only global climatic change which has been scientifically observed. The channels of Mars have provoked studies of climatic change and these are summarized together with polar laminae as a climatic change indicator.

Toon, O. B.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Changes in glucose, insulin, and growth hormone levels associated with bedrest

Changes in plasma glucose, insulin, and growth hormone (HGH) resulting from exposure to 56 d of bedrest were determined in five healthy young male subjects. Changes in the daily levels of these factors for each subject were expressed as the mean of six blood samples per 24-h period. The level of HGH dropped after 10 d of bedrest, then showed a 1.5-fold increase at 20 d and subsequently decreased gradually reaching levels of 2.5 mg/ml/24 h, well below pre-bedrest controls of 4.2 mg/ml/24 h, by the 54th d. In spite of a marked increase in the daily plasma insulin levels during the first 30 d of bedrest, glucose levels remained unchanged. Beyond 30 d of bedrest, insulin began decreasing toward pre-bedrest levels and glucose followed with a similar reduction to below the control levels of 75 mg/100 ml/24 h on day 54. The daily mean changes reflect a change in the amplitude of the diurnal variation. The daily peak in plasma insulin shifted progressively to the late evening during the bedrest period.

Vernikos-Danellis, J.↗