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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Restoring Escaped Zincate in Rechargeable Alkaline Zinc Batteries with a Seed-in-Nanoshell Design

Rechargeable alkaline zinc batteries are promising candidates for safe and low-cost energy storage, but suffer from ZnO dissolution that causes irreversible active material loss and rapid capacity decay. Here, we report a seed-in-nanoshell ZnO anode architecture that mitigates dissolution by combining physical confinement with electrochemical restoration of dissolved zincate species. ZnO particles are encapsulated within an ion-sieving carbon nanoshell that restricts zincate diffusion, maintains electrical conductivity, and stabilizes repeated solid–solution–solid transformations. Silver (Ag) nanoparticles incorporated into the nanoshell act as zincophilic nucleation seeds, lowering the Zn deposition barrier and directing the redeposition of dissolved zincate back to metallic Zn during charging. This confinement-enabled restoration mechanism converts zincate dissolution from an irreversible loss pathway into a recoverable process, enabling improved performance under harsh test conditions. The anode also delivers 227.9 mAh g −1 at −40 °C. Finally, a scalable tens-of-gram synthesis of ZnO@Ag is demonstrated, underscoring the practical potential of this strategy for advanced aqueous zinc batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding and mitigating degradation in amine-based sorbents for CO 2 direct air capture

The success of direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 depends on sorbents that combine high capacity, low energy requirements, and long-term durability. Amine-based sorbents-including solid-supported aminopolymers, grafted amines, and amine-functionalized resins-remain the leading candidates, but their limited lifetimes drive up costs and constrain deployment. In this review, we outline the current understanding of amine-based sorbent degradation with an emphasis on clearly identifying what is known about structure-property-performance relationships, as well as important knowledge gaps. More specifically, we discuss how polymer chemistry, sorbent design variables, and environmental and process conditions contribute to performance loss. In parallel, we outline how advances in spectroscopy, modeling, and accelerated testing are beginning to illuminate chemical and physical degradation mechanisms. Looking forward, we identify future research directions that will be critical for gaining a deeper understanding of degradation, as well as opportunities for developing innovative mitigation strategies for improving the lifetime of amine-based sorbents.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electronic Structure and Spin Correlations in Novel Magnetic Structures

The research has advanced understanding of the interrelation between the crystal structure and magnetism in several materials which are or can be of interest for the development of improved, specialized or more cost-effective permanent magnets, as well as in selected materials for biomedical and catalytic applications. Fundamental aspects of ferromagnetism were investigated for Mn-Ge, Co-V and Co-Ge nanoclusters and for melt-spun Co-Sn alloys. New solution-chemistry synthesis methods were designed and tested for Fe-Pt, Fe3C and Fe3O4 nanoparticles. Off-stoichiometric Laves phases in the Fe-Si-Zr, Fe-Nb and Fe-Ta systems, as well as Fe5(Si,Ge)B2 compounds were assessed as new rare-earth-free permanent magnet materials; all except the Fe-Si-Zr Laves phases were found to be promising enough to merit a further exploration. A new method for manufacturing rare-earth-free magnets based on the MnBi compound was developed; by purposely avoiding oxidation-sensitive fine single-crystalline powders, the new method yields magnets with a 50% larger energy storage capacity. Studies of rare-earth-lean permanent-magnet materials (lean compared to the currently predominant Nd-Fe-B materials) were focused on the tetragonal compound of the ThMn12 structure type and included both discovery and characterization of new formulations and exploration of new fabrication/processing techniques. Among the most significant achievements were successful preparation of a vanadium-lean SmFe11V compound, the first observation of thermomechanically induced texture in nanocrystalline Sm(Fe,V)12 alloys, and a breakthrough reduction-diffusion synthesis of Sm1-xZrx(Fe0.8Co0.2)11.2Ti0.8 single-crystal particles with a coercivity as high as 12.6 kOe. Several experiments aimed at improvement of the Nd-Fe-B magnet have also been undertaken including a five-fold increase of the coercivity through a grain-boundary diffusion treatment of a Nd10Fe84B6 nanocrystalline alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Comparison of Elastomeric Materials for Hydraulic Seal Durability under Reciprocating Conditions

Wave Energy Converters (WECs) rely on hydraulic Power Take-Off (PTO) systems to transform the kinetic energy of ocean waves into electricity, where hydraulic seals play a critical role in preventing fluid leakage and ensuring watertight operation under harsh marine conditions. However, seal degradation due to wear, fatigue, and corrosion remains a key challenge limiting system reliability and increasing maintenance costs. In this study, the tribological performance of elastomeric materials for hydraulic sealing applications that are based on commercial polyurethane and custom-compounded Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer (EPDM) is investigated. Using a CSM tribometer, reciprocating wear tests were conducted in accordance with ASTM G133 under dry sliding conditions, with normal loads ranging from 3 to 10 N, and sliding speeds of 10 to 30 mm/s. Coefficient of friction (COF), specific wear rate, and worn surface morphology are evaluated to understand how load, velocity, and material composition affect seal durability. Improved wear stability and high Shore A hardness (93–94) were demonstrated by the commercial thermoplastic polyurethane (Duralast 4203 and 4758). EPDM-based compounds showed different filler-dependent behaviors, formulations filled with carbon black (E3) had the lowest wear rate (1.45 × 10?4 mm³ N?¹ m?¹) and increased load-bearing capacity, while samples modified with silica and plasticizer (E4, E5) had better conformability and damping but less hardness. Compounded EPDMs showed wider deformation zones because of their lower modulus and filler-matrix interfacial fluctuations, while commercial grades exhibited shallower wear scars (= 380 µm), according to optical profilometry. The Archard model-based lifetime estimation showed that, under 10 N and 30 mm/s, operational endurance ranged from 3.1 to 6.2 years. Because of its low wear rate and steady interfacial behavior, E3 had the longest anticipated life. For medium-load hydraulic sealing applications, these results demonstrate the possibility of customized EPDM formulations as affordable substitutes for commercial polyurethanes. They also offer a quantitative foundation for material selection and lifespan prediction.

Durability↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting lake surface water phosphorus dynamics using process-guided machine learning

Phosphorus (P) loading to lakes is degrading the quality and usability of water globally. Accurate predictions of lake P dynamics are needed to understand whole-ecosystem P budgets, as well as the consequences of changing lake P concentrations for water quality. However, complex biophysical processes within lakes, along with limited observational data, challenge our capacity to reproduce short-term lake dynamics needed for water quality predictions, as well as long-term dynamics needed to understand broad scale controls over lake P. Here we use an emerging paradigm in modeling, process-guided machine learning (PGML), to produce a phosphorus budget for Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA) and to accurately predict epilimnetic phosphorus over a time range of days to decades. In our implementation of PGML, which we term a Process-Guided Recurrent Neural Network (PGRNN), we combine a process-based model for lake P with a recurrent neural network, and then constrain the predictions with ecological principles. We test independently the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN to evaluate the overall approach. The process-based model accounted for most of the observed pattern in lake P; however it missed the long-term trend in lake P and had the worst performance in predicting winter and summer P in surface waters. The root mean square error (RMSE) for the process-based model, the recurrent neural network, and the PGRNN was 33.0 μg P L -1 , 22.7 μg P L -1 , and 20.7 μg P L -1 , respectively. All models performed better during summer, with RMSE values for the three models (same order) equal to 14.3 μg P L -1 , 10.9 μg P L -1 , and 10.7 μg P L -1 . Although the PGRNN had only marginally better RMSE during summer, it had lower bias and reproduced long-term decreases in lake P missed by the other two models. For all seasons and all years, the recurrent neural network had better predictions than process alone, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 23.8 μg P L -1 and 28.0 μg P L -1 , respectively. The output of PGRNN indicated that new processes related to water temperature, thermal stratification, and long term changes in external loads are needed to improve the process model. By using ecological knowledge, as well as the information content of complex data, PGML shows promise as a technique for accurate prediction in messy, real-world ecological dynamics, while providing valuable information that can improve our understanding of process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Testbed and Experiments for Quantum-Conventional Networking

The realization of quantum networks requires the development of devices and methods unprecedented in conventional networks, and yet they critically depend on the latter for implementing foundational blocks and essential operations. We describe a testbed to support the development and testing of their functionality and performance by providing quantum and conventional data planes and devices, together with a secure conventional control plane. It incorporates a variety of entangled photon sources, qubit technologies, detector technologies, photonic components, and supporting conventional switches and workstations. It implements a novel fiber telescoping scheme that provides suites of connections using fiber spools and inground-aerial fiber loops. We briefly summarize a variety of experiments conducted over this testbed including: (i) flex-grid quantum connection experiments, (ii) quantum state and channel tomography, (iii) utilization of quantum key distribution keys to secure conventional encryption and firewall devices, (iv) comparative study of analytical capacity estimates and entanglement throughput, (v) deployed squeezing coexisting with conventional communications, and (iv) measurement of polarization time variation.

Rao, Nageswara [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000234085941)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Supercritical CO2 sterilization of N95 Masks

A preliminary investigation of the use of supercritical carbon dioxide for treating of 3M 1860 N95 masks was undertaken to evaluate a potential route to low-cost, scalable, sterilization of personal protective equipment for multiple reuse in hospital settings. Upon entering the supercritical regime, the normally distinct liquid and gaseous phases of CO 2 merge into a single homogeneous phase that has density, short-range order, and solvation capacity of a liquid, but the volume-filling and permeation properties that of a gas. This enables supercritical CO2 to function as a vehicle for delivery of biocidal agents such peracetic acid into microporous structures. The potentially adverse effect of a liquid-to-gas phase transition on mask filter media is avoided by conducting cleaning operations above 31 C, the critical temperature for carbon dioxide. A sample of fifteen 3M 1860 N95 masks was subjected to ten consecutive cycles of supercritical CO 2 cleaning to determine its effect on mask performance. These 15 masks, along with 5 control samples then underwent a battery of standardized tests at the CDC NIOSH NPPTL research facility in Pittsburgh, PA. The data from these tests strongly suggest (but do not prove) that supercritical carbon dioxide do not damage 3M 1860 N95 masks. Additional tests conducted during this project confirmed the compatibility of supercritical CO 2 with ventilator tubing that, like N95 masks, has been in short supply during portions of the COVID-19 pandemic and cannot be sterilized by conventional means. Finally, a control experiment was also conducted to examine the effect of supercritical CO 2 on a BSL-2 surrogate virus, vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), Indiana serotype strain. In the absence of biocidal additives, supercritical CO 2 exhibited no measurable lethality against VSV. This surrogate virus experiment suggests that a biocidal additive such as peracetic acid will be necessary to achieve required sterilization metrics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Assessment of Caprock Integrity for Geologic Carbon Storage in the Pennsylvanian Farnsworth Unit, Texas, USA

Leakage pathways through caprock lithologies for underground storage of CO2 and/or enhanced oil recovery (EOR) include intrusion into nano-pore mudstones, flow within fractures and faults, and larger-scale sedimentary heterogeneity (e.g., stacked channel deposits). To assess multiscale sealing integrity of the caprock system that overlies the Morrow B sandstone reservoir, Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Texas, USA, we combine pore-to-core observations, laboratory testing, well logging results, and noble gas analysis. A cluster analysis combining gamma ray, compressional slowness, and other logs was combined with caliper responses and triaxial rock mechanics testing to define eleven lithologic classes across the upper Morrow shale and Thirteen Finger limestone caprock units, with estimations of dynamic elastic moduli and fracture breakdown pressures (minimum horizontal stress gradients) for each class. Mercury porosimetry determinations of CO2 column heights in sealing formations yield values exceeding reservoir height. Noble gas profiles provide a “geologic time-integrated” assessment of fluid flow across the reservoir-caprock system, with Morrow B reservoir measurements consistent with decades-long EOR water-flooding, and upper Morrow shale and lower Thirteen Finger limestone values being consistent with long-term geohydrologic isolation. Together, these data suggest an excellent sealing capacity for the FWU and provide limits for injection pressure increases accompanying carbon storage activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Zincate-Blocking-Functionalized Polysulfone Separators for Secondary Zn–MnO 2 Batteries

Alkaline zinc–manganese dioxide (Zn–MnO 2 ) batteries are well suited for grid storage applications because of their inherently safe, aqueous electrolyte and established materials supply chain, resulting in low production costs. With recent advances in the development of Cu/Bi-stabilized birnessite cathodes capable of the full 2-electron capacity equivalent of MnO 2 (617 mA h/g), there is a need for selective separators that prevent zincate (Zn(OH) 4 ) 2– transport from the anode to the cathode during cycling, as this electrode system fails in the presence of dissolved zinc. In this work, we present the synthesis of N-butylimidazolium-functionalized polysulfone (NBI-PSU)-based separators and evaluate their ability to selectively transport hydroxide over zincate. We then examine their impact on the cycling of high depth of discharge Zn/(Cu/Bi–MnO 2 ) batteries when inserted in between the cathode and anode. Initially, we establish our membranes’ selectivity by performing zincate and hydroxide diffusion tests, showing a marked improvement in zincate-blocking (D Zn (cm 2 /min): 0.17 ± 0.04 × 10 –6 for 50-PSU, our most selective separator vs 2.0 ± 0.8 × 10 –6 for Cellophane 350P00 and 5.7 ± 0.8 × 10 –6 for Celgard 3501), while maintaining similar crossover rates for hydroxide (D OH (cm 2 /min): 9.4 ± 0.1 × 10 –6 for 50-PSU vs 17 ± 0.5 × 10 –6 for Cellophane 350P00 and 6.7 ± 0.6 × 10 –6 for Celgard 3501). We then implement our membranes into cells and observe an improvement in cycle life over control cells containing only the commercial separators (cell lifetime extended from 21 to 79 cycles).

crossover↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping foliar photosynthetic capacity in sub-tropical and tropical forests with UAS-based imaging spectroscopy: Scaling from leaf to canopy

Accurate understanding of the variability in foliar physiological traits across landscapes is critical to improve parameterization and evaluation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that seek to represent the response of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate. Numerous studies suggest imaging spectroscopy can characterize foliar biochemical and morphological traits at the canopy scale, but there is only limited evidence for retrieving canopy photosynthetic capacity (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, V c,max and maximum electron transport rate, J max ). Moreover, the effect of canopy structure within forest communities on scaling up spectra-trait relationships from leaf to canopy level is not well known. To advance the spectra-trait approach and enable the estimation of key traits using remote sensing, we collected imaging spectroscopy data from an Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) platform over two forest sites in China (a subtropical forest in Mt. Dinghu and a tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna). At these sites, we also collected ground measurements of leaf spectra and traits, including biochemical (leaf nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll, and water content), morphological (leaf mass per area, LMA) and physiological (V c,max25 and J max25 ) traits (n=135 tree-crowns from 42 species across two sites). Using a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) approach, we built and tested spectra-trait models with repeated cross-validation. The spectral models developed with leaf spectra were directly transferred to canopy spectra to evaluate the effect of canopy structure. Here we further applied canopy spectral models to map these traits at individual tree-crown scale. The results demonstrate that (1) UAS-based canopy spectra can be used to estimate V c,max (R 2 =0.55, nRMSE=11.79%), Jmax (R 2 =0.54, nRMSE=12.34%), and five additional foliar traits (R 2 =0.38-0.60, nRMSE=10.11-13.56%) at the tree-crown scale with demonstrated generalizability across two sites; (2) canopy structure strongly affects the spectratrait relationships from leaf to canopy level, but the effects vary considerably across foliar traits and cannot be well captured by the 4SAIL canopy radiative transfer model. UAS-based imaging spectroscopy maps large variability in all foliar traits (including physiological traits) with spatially explicit information, reproducing the field-observed inter- and intra-specific variations. These results demonstrate the capability of using UAS-based imaging spectroscopy for characterizing the variability of foliar physiological traits at individual tree-crown scale over forest landscapes and highlight the similar generalizability but different biophysical mechanisms underlying spectra-trait relationships at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Redox Titrations via Interdigitated Electrode Arrays: Application to the Mediated Electron Transfer Interrogation of Charge and Rate on Electrodeposited Polymers

Mediated electron transfer (MET) plays a crucial role in energy storage and conversion technologies such as redox targeting flow batteries (RTFBs), yet its experimental investigation often requires labor-intensive and low-throughput setups. To address this, we developed a microfabricated interdigitated electrode array (IDA) platform that enables automated, high-throughput electrochemical redox titration measurement to be performed to study the MET process. Our redox titration method enables simultaneous measurement of the charge capacity and rate of MET processes on a material or surface. Automated redox titration (ART) facilitates systematic investigation of the MET process across a broad parameter space, exemplified through the study of polypyrrole (PPy) and a pyrene-4,5,9,10-tetrone azo group-based polymer (PTAP), both redox-active polymers relevant to various energy storage applications. Using PPy as a model material, 500 redox titration measurements were conducted within 50 h, varying the electrode gap widths, polymer charging potentials, voltammetric scan rates, and electrolyte concentrations. Finite-element simulations confirmed the electrochemical responses and elucidated the kinetics of the MET reactions. Our automated methodology was further tested with PTAP, revealing a surprising charging potential dependence on the rate of MET. The automation, flexibility, and scalability of our redox titration platform pave the way not only for advanced studies of MET processes relevant to RTFBs, but also with implications in the understanding of next-generation energy storage materials, molecular electrocatalysis, and biosensing.

electrochemical analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Seismicity Associated With Flexibly Operating Enhanced Geothermal System From Real‐Time Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have the capacity to broaden the accessible resource pool for geothermal power generation. Traditionally viewed as a “baseload” resource, their flexible operation might also enable dispatchable load‐following generation and long‐term energy storage, aligning them with the evolving landscape of decarbonized electricity systems. However, increasing permeability and extracting energy during EGS operations can induce microseismic events; for many prior EGS efforts, some associated seismicity has been observed. While energetically beneficial, the flexibility of EGS operations prompts our inquiry into whether new types of operations will yield previously unseen seismicity patterns. We demonstrate the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with real‐time edge computing to monitor seismicity during a pilot test of a cyclically operated EGS facility at the Blue Mountain geothermal field. Our focus lies in uncovering seismicity insights from the real‐time microseismic catalog, particularly during load‐following dispatchability tests simulating flexible EGS operation. Here, we find that variations in pore pressure consistently correlate with seismicity, and that controlling pressure cycles during flexible operations appears to constrain microseismic activity during subsequent cycles. The spatio‐temporal evolution of microseismic clouds recorded during cyclic injection cycles fits diffusive models over our available observation period. Additionally, seismicity elevation lags behind pore pressure increases, likely due to pressure diffusion to the fracture system boundary. Through real‐time monitoring, we offer novel insights into seismicity associated with flexibly operating EGS. Our findings suggest that leveraging DAS and edge computing can inform EGS operations and help mitigate induced seismicity.

Chamarczuk, Michal [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2025

Labels as a feature: Network homophily for systematically annotating human GPCR drug-target interactions

Machine learning has revolutionized drug discovery by enabling the exploration of vast, uncharted chemical spaces essential for discovering novel patentable drugs. Despite the critical role of human G protein-coupled receptors in FDA-approved drugs, exhaustive in-distribution drug-target interaction testing across all pairs of human G protein-coupled receptors and known drugs is rare due to significant economic and technical challenges. This often leaves off-target effects unexplored, which poses a considerable risk to drug safety. In contrast to the traditional focus on out-of-distribution exploration (drug discovery), we introduce a neighborhood-to-prediction model termed Chemical Space Neural Networks that leverages network homophily and training-free graph neural networks with labels as features. We show that Chemical Space Neural Networks’ ability to make accurate predictions strongly correlates with network homophily. Thus, labels as features strongly increase a machine learning model’s capacity to enhance in-distribution prediction accuracy, which we show by integrating labeled data during inference. We validate these advancements in a high-throughput yeast biosensing system (3773 drug-target interactions, 539 compounds, 7 human G protein-coupled receptors) to discover novel drug-target interactions for FDA-approved drugs and to expand the general understanding of how to build reliable predictors to guide experimental verification.

Hansson, Frederik G↗
DOE OSTI2020

Demographic analysis of invasible habitat fraction identifies context‐dependent roles of resource availability and biotic resistance in determining invasion success

Abstract Theories of plant invasions predict that plant communities should be more easily invaded when resources increase and/or competition decreases. We tested this with an experimentally introduced plant population by manipulating precipitation and resident community biomass. We used a spatially explicit demographic approach to develop a new population‐level metric of invasibility that quantifies the invasible habitat fraction (IHF) across the landscape. The existing community was essentially uninvasible (median IHF ≈ 0%), but experimental manipulations greatly increased the range of outcomes, with maximum observed IHF values over 50%. However, changes in invasibility were often context‐dependent, resulting in some outcomes that aligned with existing theory, and others that were not readily predicted. Moreover, variation in invasibility was often driven by specific sets of invader demographic vital rates. Removing competitors revealed the capacity for strong biotic resistance, but this interacted with precipitation such that little biotic resistance was detected under drought conditions. Adding precipitation typically had little positive effect on invasibility, and moderate drought relief led to relatively high invasibility. However, the latter was driven to a large extent by interactions with mammal herbivory that otherwise inhibited invasion in one year. Synthesis . Our findings show that interactions between abiotic and biotic factors, as well as legacy effects, can strongly mediate invasibility. This study also highlights the importance of incorporating spatial heterogeneity into population‐level assessments of invasion, as initial population declines do not necessarily indicate resistance to invasion.

Griffith, Alden B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of Dielectric Constant in Series of Polymers by Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR)

This work is devoted to the investigation of dielectric permittivity which is influenced by electronic, ionic, and dipolar polarization mechanisms, contributing to the material’s capacity to store electrical energy. In this study, an extended dataset of 86 polymers was analyzed, and two quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) models were developed to predict dielectric permittivity. From an initial set of 1273 descriptors, the most relevant ones were selected using a genetic algorithm, and machine learning models were built using the Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR). In contrast to Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)- and Partial Least Squares (PLS)-based models, the gradient boosting models excel in handling nonlinear relationships and multicollinearity, iteratively optimizing decision trees to improve accuracy without overfitting. The developed GBR models showed high R2 coefficients of 0.938 and 0.822, for the training and test sets, respectively. An Accumulated Local Effect (ALE) technique was applied to assess the relationship between the selected descriptors—eight for the GB_A model and six for the GB_B model, and their impact on target property. ALE analysis revealed that descriptors such as TDB09m had a strong positive effect on permittivity, while MLOGP2 showed a negative effect. These results highlight the effectiveness of the GBR approach in predicting the dielectric properties of polymers, offering improved accuracy and interpretability.

Ascencio-Medina, Estefania↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗