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DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Networks for Earthquake Source Characterization

Abstract Accurate earthquake location and magnitude estimation play critical roles in seismology. Recent deep learning frameworks have produced encouraging results on various seismological tasks (e.g., earthquake detection, phase picking, seismic classification, and earthquake early warning). Many existing machine learning earthquake location methods utilize waveform information from a single station. However, multiple stations contain more complete information for earthquake source characterization. Inspired by recent successes in applying graph neural networks (GNNs) in graph‐structured data, we develop a Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network (STGNN) for estimating earthquake locations and magnitudes. Our graph neural network leverages geographical and waveform information from multiple stations to construct graphs automatically and dynamically by adaptive message passing based on graphs' edges. Using a recent graph neural network and a fully convolutional neural network as baselines, we apply STGNN to earthquakes recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network from 2000 to 2019 and earthquakes collected in Oklahoma from 2014 to 2015. STGNN yields more accurate earthquake locations than those obtained by the baseline models and performs comparably in terms of depth and magnitude prediction, though the ability to predict depth and magnitude remains weak for all tested models. Our work demonstrates the potential of using GNNs and multiple stations for better automatic estimation of earthquake epicenters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Screening method for Enzyme-based liquefaction of corn stover pellets at high solids

Liquefaction of high solid loadings of unpretreated corn stover pellets has been demonstrated with rheology of the resulting slurries enabling mixing and movement within biorefinery bioreactors. However, some forms of pelleted stover do not readily liquefy, so it is important to screen out lots of unsuitable pellets before processing is initiated. This work reports a laboratory assay that rapidly assesses whether pellets have the potential for enzyme-based liquefaction at high solids loadings. Twenty-eight pelleted corn stover (harvested at the same time and location) were analyzed using 20 mL enzyme solutions (3 FPU cellulase/ g biomass) at 30 % w/v solids loading. Imaging together with measurement of reducing sugars were performed over 24-hours. Further, some samples formed concentrated slurries of 300 mg/mL (dry basis) in the small-scale assay, which was later confirmed in an agitated bioreactor. Also, the laboratory assay showed potential for optimizing enzyme formulations that could be employed for slurry formation.

Laboratory assay↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Hydro-based MCMC Analysis of SNR 0509–67.5: Revealing the Explosion Properties from Fluid Discontinuities Alone

Using Hubble Space Telescope/ACS Hα images of SNR 0509–67.5 taken ~10 yr apart, we measure the forward shock (FS) proper motions (PMs) at 231 rim locations. The average shock radius and velocity are 3.66 ± 0.036 pc and 6315 ± 310 km s –1 . Hydrodynamic simulations, recast as similarity solutions, provide models for the supernova remnant’s expansion into a uniform ambient medium. These are coupled to a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis to determine explosion parameters, constrained by the FS measurements. For our baseline model, the MCMC posteriors yield an age of 315.5 ± 1.8 yr, a dynamical explosion center at 5 h 09 m 31. s 16, $-67^\circ 31^{\prime} 17\buildrel{\prime\prime}\over{.} 1$ and ambient medium densities at each azimuth ranging over 3.7–8.0 × 10 –25 g cm –3 . The age uncertainty can be an order of magnitude larger when considering other models, or subsets of the data. We detect stellar PMs corresponding to speeds in the Large Magellanic Cloud ≥ 770 km s –1 . Five stars in the remnant show measurable PMs but none are moving radially from the dynamical center. There are four stars 1."4 from the center, including three faint, previously unidentified ones. Using coronal [Fe XIV ] λ5303 emission as a proxy for the reverse shock location, we constrain the explosion energy (for a compression factor of 4) to a value of E = (1.30 ± 0.41) × 10 51 erg for the first time from shock kinematics alone. Higher compression factors (7 or more) are strongly disfavored based on multiple criteria, arguing for inefficient particle acceleration in the Balmer shocks of SNR 0509–67.5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

NGEE Arctic 2019 Alder Ground Truth Survey, Seward Peninsula AK

In July 2019 we made traveled the road system outside of Nome, AK and detailed the GPS coordinates of alder shrublands for the purpose of ground-truthing alder maps of the region. Both visual and ground-based observations were made for patches of alder shrublands greater 5x5m and larger, ideally 10x10m. Visual observations were made from the car and GPS coordinates are approximate, placed by dropping pins on georeferenced pdfs using the Avenza app. Visual observations included positive identified alder shrublands as well as thickets of non-alder shrubs. Ground Observations were made at a subset of locations where we were able to hike to alders shrubland areas. Ground observations include GPS points (made with Garmin InReach) as well as relevant features of a centrally located, representative alder shrub in the patch (max height, basal diameter of all ramets, soil depth). Aboveground biomass (weight dry mass) of the surveyed shrub was calculated based on alder-specific allometric equations in Berner et al 2015 which our team checked for accuracy for the Seward Peninsula as part of Salmon et al 2019. This dataset contains three data files, three data dictionaries, and one file-level metadata file all in*.csv format plus one *.txt README file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

DOE OSTI2020

MFRED, 10 second interval real and reactive power for groups of 390 US apartments of varying size and vintage

Abstract Building electricity is a major component of global energy use and its environmental impacts. Detailed data on residential electricity use have many interrelated research applications, from energy conservation to non-intrusive load monitoring, energy storage, integration of renewables, and electric vs. fossil-based heating. The dataset presented here, Multifamily Residential Electricity Dataset (MFRED), contains the electricity use of 390 apartments, ranging from studios to four-bedroom units. All apartments are located in the Northeastern United States (IECC-climate-zone 4 A), but differ in their heating/cooling system and construction year (early to late 20 th century). To adhere to privacy guidelines, data were averaged across 15 apartments each, based on annual electricity use. MFRED includes real and reactive power, at 10-second resolution, for January to December 2019 (246 million data points). The annual average real power per apartment is 343 W (3.27 W/m 2 of floor area), with strong variation between seasons and apartment size. Considering its large number of apartments, high time resolution, real and reactive power, and 12-month duration, MFRED is currently unique for the multifamily-sector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Grid Edge Waveform Analytics Framework for Event Detection and Classification

This paper provides a grid edge waveform analytics framework for power system event detection and classification in the local as well as in the wide area. This framework overviews data excellence for event detection and classification. The data excellence describes the data acquisition process and requirements, data processing, data quality, and data integrity. Power system event detection in the local area based on different features such as energy-based, cyclostationary approach, template matching, and wavelet transform are also discussed. Furthermore, local area event detection and classification using approaches such as statistical, signal processing, artificial intelligence, and hybrid are also discussed. Moreover, an overview of wide-area event detection and classification along with several other aspects such as wide-area events, wide-area event detection approaches, event location and system performance, event pattern recognition, inter-area oscillation, and wide-area frequency response under variable deployment of inverter-based resources are also provided. The proposed framework is the first step toward the goal of developing appropriate tools and methodologies to detect and classify local as well as wide-area events using waveform analytics. The appropriate event detection and classification framework development is especially important now as more and more grid edge devices with communication capabilities are being deployed in the modern power grid than ever before.

Bhusal, Narayan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Area Model-Free State Estimation via Distributed Tensor Decomposition

This paper proposes a model-free method for distribution system state estimation based on tensor completion using canonical polyadic decomposition. In particular, we consider a setting where the network is divided into multiple areas. The measured physical quantities at buses located in the same area are processed by an area controller. A third-order tensor is constructed to collect these measured quantities. The measurements are analyzed locally to recover the full state information of the network. A closed-form iterative algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers is developed to obtain the low-rank factors of the whole network state tensor where information exchange happens only between neighboring areas. To demonstrate the efficacy of the developed algorithm, numerical simulations are carried out using an IEEE test system.

alternating direction method of multipliers↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗

DOE OSTI2020

Summary of Preliminary Concepts for a Port of Alaska Resilient Microgrid

The Port of Alaska in Anchorage enables the economic vitality of the Municipality of Anchorage and State of Alaska. It also provides significant support to defense activities across Alaska, especially to the Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson (JBER) that is immediately adjacent to the Port. For this reason, stakeholders are interested in the resilience of the Ports operations. This report documents a preliminary feasibility analysis for developing an energy system that increases electric supply resilience for the Port and for a specific location inside JBER. The project concept emerged from prior work led by the Municipality of Anchorage and consultation with Port stakeholders. The project consists of a microgrid with PV, storage and diesel generation, capable of supplying electricity to loads at the Port a specific JBER location during utility outages, while also delivering economic value during blue-sky conditions. The study aims to estimate the size, configuration and concept of operations based on existing infrastructure and limited demand data. It also explores potential project benefits and challenges. The report goal is to inform further stakeholder consultation and next steps.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Overview of Preliminary Concepts for a Port of Alaska Resilient Microgrid

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling investment decisions from heterogeneous firms under imperfect information and risk in wholesale electricity markets

Not Available

Anwar, Muhammad Bashar (ORCID:0000000291846700)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measured and satellite-derived albedo data for estimating bifacial photovoltaic system performance

The albedo of the ground surface is an important factor in the cost-effectiveness of a bifacial photovoltaic (PV) system. To improve the availability of reliable albedo data, datasets of ground albedo and associated meteorological data were developed by using existing measurement network data and data measured by the PV industry. The measured datasets include time-series data as well as summary information of tabular monthly and yearly data and plots of monthly and hourly albedo values. Satellite-derived values of albedo are available from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). The NSRDB albedos were compared to the measured albedos for Surface Radiation budget (SURFRAD) network locations for the period 2001–2017, and the mean bias difference results were from -0.044 to +0.056. Overall, these differences are greater than the albedo measurement uncertainty of ±0.02; consequently, the NSRDB albedos should be used with caution for estimating the performance of bifacial PV systems. Differences between SURFRAD and NSRDB albedos are attributed to the NSRDB method for determining albedo and to the ground surfaces within the NSRDB 4 km spatial resolution pixel consisting of a mixture of surface types rather than just the single surface types viewed by the albedometers at the SURFRAD stations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A method for mapping submicron-scale crystallographic order/disorder applied to human tooth enamel

Tooth enamel, the outermost layer of human teeth, is a complex, hierarchically structured biocomposite. The details of this structure are important in multiple human health contexts, from understanding the progression of dental caries (tooth decay) to understanding the process of amelogenesis and related developmental defects. Enamel is composed primarily of long, nanoscale crystallites of hydroxyapatite that are bundled by the thousands to form micron-scale rods. Studies with transmission electron microscopy show the relationships between small groups of crystallites and X-ray diffraction characterize averages over many rods, but the direct measurement of variations in local crystallographic structure across and between enamel rods has been missing. Here, we describe a synchrotron X-ray-based experimental approach and a novel analysis method developed to address this gap in knowledge. A ~500-nm-wide beam of monochromatic X-rays in conjunction with a sample section only 1 μm in thickness enables 2D diffraction patterns to be collected from small well-separated volumes within the enamel microstructure but still probes enough crystallites (~300 per pattern) to extract population-level statistics on crystallographic features like lattice parameter, crystallite size, and orientation distributions. Furthermore, the development of a quantitative metric to characterize relative order and disorder based on the azimuthal autocorrelation of diffracted intensity enables these crystallographic measurements to be correlated with their location within the enamel microstructure (e.g., between rod and interrod regions). These methods represent a step forward in the characterization of human enamel and will elucidate the variation of the crystallographic structure across and between enamel rods for the first time.

crystallographic order/disorder↗

DOE OSTI2022

Automated Crystal Orientation Mapping in py4DSTEM using Sparse Correlation Matching

Crystalline materials used in technological applications are often complex assemblies composed of multiple phases and differently oriented grains. Robust identification of the phases and orientation relationships from these samples is crucial, but the information extracted from the diffraction condition probed by an electron beam is often incomplete. We have developed an automated crystal orientation mapping (ACOM) procedure which uses a converged electron probe to collect diffraction patterns from multiple locations across a complex sample. We provide an algorithm to determine the orientation of each diffraction pattern based on a fast sparse correlation method. We demonstrate the speed and accuracy of our method by indexing diffraction patterns generated using both kinematical and dynamical simulations. We have also measured orientation maps from an experimental dataset consisting of a complex polycrystalline twisted helical AuAgPd nanowire. From these maps we identify twin planes between adjacent grains, which may be responsible for the twisted helical structure. All of our methods are made freely available as open source code, including tutorials which can be easily adapted to perform ACOM measurements on diffraction pattern datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Abandoned Well Sites Using Database Records and Aeromagnetic Surveys

Oil and natural gas are primary sources of energy in the United States. Improved drilling and extracting techniques have led to a renewed interest in historic oil and gas fields, but limited records of legacy wells make new drilling efforts more difficult, as abandoned wells may provide conduits for liquids and gases to migrate into groundwater reservoirs or the atmosphere. Well finding using aeromagnetic surveys pinpoints the location of steel-cased wells, detecting both active and abandoned wells, including buried casings lacking aboveground markers. Here, we present six aeromagnetic surveys conducted in Pennsylvania and Wyoming as case studies, comparing the magnetic points to locations known in databases. In all study sites, more magnetic points were detected than recorded in databases. Based on differences between theoretical database well counts and the actual number of wells detected in surveys, we estimated the total number of wells in Pennsylvania to be 395 000–466 000 and 181 000–182 000 in Wyoming. Extrapolating to the national level, in this work, we estimate the average number of wells in the continental United States is 6.04 ± 19.97 million wells with 1.16 ± 3.84 million of those designated as abandoned wells, within the range of previous abandoned well count estimations. Although aeromagnetic surveys are limited to detecting steel-cased wells and do not differentiate sites based on well status, this study nevertheless demonstrates the utility of aeromagnetic surveys in well finding efforts across the country and shows limitations in database records of oil and natural gas wells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Power balance and divertor asymmetries in the Super-X divertors of MAST-U using SOLPS-ITER

Spherical tokamaks (STs) present unique challenges and opportunities in the area of particle and power exhaust, intensified due to their more compact sizes. Substantial efforts are underway in STs to determine the limits in dissipative operational regimes and advanced divertor solutions, including at MAST-U which provides access to the Super-X divertor configuration. Power balance, and upper/lower divertor asymmetries have been studied using SOLPS-ITER simulations of the MAST-U Super-X divertor. A set of simulations with experimentally inferred transport coefficients with E x B and diamagnetic drifts activated, consisting of density and power scans, and high field side vs low field side gas puff locations, have been used for code experimentation to uncover trends beyond the current experimental parameter space. The upper biased asymmetry (U:L > 1) of the ratio of the peaks of the plasma energy flux densities at the outer targets increases with heating power and decreases with gas puff strength, going from symmetric to up to a factor of 15. The upper target electron temperature has been found to be a good ordering quantity for the magnitude of this asymmetry for all heating powers, gas puff strength, and gas puff locations. The lower divertor biased asymmetry (U:L < 1) of the radiation patterns processed through SOLPS-based bolometry synthetic diagnostics is in qualitative agreement with resistive bolometry experimental results, and it is in quantitative agreement with the trend of the total volume radiation within the divertors of SOLPS. However, radiation measurements alone are not sufficient to infer the magnitude of the asymmetry of the peaks of the power loads at the targets.

MAST-U↗