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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

In vitro seed to seed growth on clinostats

The effect of a long term micro-gravity environment on the life cycle of plants is unknown. Whether higher plants have evolved to a stage where removal or reduction of gravity is detrimental to plant life cycle and thus fatal to the plant species, is an unanswered question in space plants which were successfully grown through the various stages of their life cycle. Attempts to grow plants as a continuous integral process from seed to seed through one generation were successful until recently. Culture of plants through multiple generations was not accomplished in space nor in ground based studies. The effect of long term simulated weightlessness by growing consecutive generations of plants continuously on clinostats using the cruciferous plants, Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heyn. and Cardamine oligosperma Nutt. is being investigated.

Hoshizaki, T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Lost Circulation Material Particle-Size Distribution on Fracture Sealing: A Numerical Study

Summary Lost circulation materials (LCMs) are essential to combat fluid loss while drilling and may put the whole operation at risk if a proper LCM design is not used. The focus of this research is understanding the function of LCMs in sealing fractures to reduce fluid loss. One important consideration in the success of fracture sealing is the particle-size distribution (PSD) of LCMs. Various studies have suggested different guidelines for obtaining the best size distribution of LCMs for effective fracture sealing based on limited laboratory experiments or field observations. Hence, there is a need for sophisticated numerical methods to improve the LCM design by providing some predictive capabilities. In this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and discrete element methods (DEM) numerical simulations are coupled to investigate the influence of PSD of granular LCMs on fracture sealing. Dimensionless variables were introduced to compare cases with different PSDs. We validated the CFD-DEM model in reproducing specific laboratory observations of fracture-sealing experiments within the model boundary parameters. Our simulations suggested that a bimodally distributed blend would be the most effective design in comparison to other PSDs tested here.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) with Chloride Absorbers to Provide Validation Benchmarks for Y-12 Electrorefining Facility

Uranium electrorefining operations at Y-12 require validation for chlorine absorption and reflection. Plutonium chloride solution operations at Los Alamos National Laboratory require chlorine absorption validation. The growing need for chlorine validation is evident to the wider criticality safety community, with multiple attendees at the recent TEX 2.0 meeting at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (May 2023) requesting validation for chlorine (Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Institute de radioprotection et de surete nucleaire (IRSN), Savannah River Nuclear Site (SRNS), LANL, and Y-12). Los Alamos National Laboratory has recently performed, and benchmarked, an experiment titled Chlorine Worth Study (CWS) for the internal operations at the lab, but due to the difficulties in precisely characterizing the material compositions of the chlorine absorbers it is advantageous to perform a complimentary study with a different chlorine-based absorber material. Furthermore, having a uranium-based vs plutonium-based experiment provides a separate and important validation basis for criticality safety and nuclear data evaluation. The original final design report for the study of chlorine absorption using the TEX-HEU experimental base was presented in 2022, but used the same chlorine-bearing materials that were found to be difficult to characterize in the LANL benchmark. A complete redesign of the experiment has been performed looking at alternative absorber materials in various forms to produce an experiment that is fully characterizable. This report presents five novel chlorine experiments using the TEX-HEU test bed which provides direct comparison to the Y-12 and INL/Terrapower application needs, utilizing sodium chloride (NaCl) absorber plates. The absorber plates will consist of granulated NaCl (≥99.5% pure), which will be fully encapsulated in aluminum tins, providing a simple but effective chlorine-based absorber material that can be completely characterized. Of the five configurations presented in this report, it is expected that two or three configurations will be down selected for the actual experiment, with the other configurations being alternates. Three of the configurations are in the standard configuration, where the absorber is placed directly on the HEU fuel plates, and two in the sandwich configuration, where the absorber is surrounded by polyethylene moderators to force additional neutron thermalization prior to reaching the absorber. There are two thicknesses of NaCl absorber plates: 3/16” and 1/4” active thicknesses (i.e. not including the encapsulation). Both variations of the absorbers have an active absorber radius of 6” and a total radius of 7.5” to match the diameter of the HEU plates, with the outer 1.5” being aluminum encapsulation. The high-density polyethylene (HDPE) moderators are of the thicknesses: 27/16”, 7/4”, 1/8”, 11/16”, and 3/4”. The final configurations have six (one sandwich and one standard configuration), eight (one sandwich and one standard configuration), and 18 total fuel layers (standard configuration). The standard and sandwich configurations were designed such that the differences in moderator thicknesses are 1” HDPE, which were already procured for the original CED-2. The proposed configurations were precisely tuned to closely match the sensitivity profiles and neutron spectra of the Y-12 upset cases and were also compared to the INL/Terrapower upset cases. The assessment of experimental uncertainties of the non-absorber components was predicted to be 0.00114 Δk eff . The assessment of uncertainties resulting from the absorbers was predicted to be 0.00029 Δk eff . This results in a total uncertainty of 0.00118 Δk eff . Many of the largest uncertainties, namely the moderator densities, may be reduced with precision dimensional inspection of the components. The 1” HDPE moderators as well as the HDPE reflectors from the original CED-2 were incorporated in the final designs presented here. Additional HDPE moderator plates must be fabricated to complete the configurations. NaCl absorber plates will by fabricated at LLNL. The total additional cost is expected to be $\$$54,250 for the remaining components. Precise inspection, including dimensional, mass, density, and impurity, is recommended for all components. LLNL estimates that these costs are around $\$$12,000. It is expected, based on previous TEX-HEU experiments, that three weeks of experimental facility time is needed to complete the experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (R e ) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and R e is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced R e below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mapping of inhomogeneous quasi-3D electrostatic field in electro-optic materials

Abstract This paper describes a new method for direct measurement and evaluation of the inhomogeneous electrostatic vector field with translational symmetry in electro-optic materials exhibiting the Pockels effect. It is based on the evaluation of maximum transmittance of low intensity light passing through a sample under a voltage bias. Here, the sample is located between rotating crossed polarizers, and camera images are obtained at each point to determine the electric field. The evaluation procedure is demonstrated using data acquired on a CdZnTeSe quasi-hemispheric semiconductor gamma-ray detector. In addition to CdTe-related compounds, the method can be used for various other materials showing $$\overline{4}3m$$ 4 ¯ 3 m symmetry such as GaAs, CdTe, GaP, 3C-SiC, and ZnS. Furthermore, it can be generalized to other crystalline materials showing the Pockels effect. The method can be used to probe the space charge and the electric field in several kinds of electronic components and devices, as well as provide useful data on the role of defects, contact configurations and other surface and bulk inhomogeneities in the material that can affect the distribution of the internal electric field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

Modeling of UH-60A Hub Accelerations with Neural Networks

Neural network relationships between the full-scale, flight test hub accelerations and the corresponding three N/rev pilot floor vibration components (vertical, lateral, and longitudinal) are studied. The present quantitative effort on the UH-60A Black Hawk hub accelerations considers the lateral and longitudinal vibrations. An earlier study had considered the vertical vibration. The NASA/Army UH-60A Airloads Program flight test database is used. A physics based "maneuver-effect-factor (MEF)", derived using the roll-angle and the pitch-rate, is used. Fundamentally, the lateral vibration data show high vibration levels (up to 0.3 g's) at low airspeeds (for example, during landing flares) and at high airspeeds (for example, during turns). The results show that the advance ratio and the gross weight together can predict the vertical and the longitudinal vibration. However, the advance ratio and the gross weight together cannot predict the lateral vibration. The hub accelerations and the advance ratio can be used to satisfactorily predict the vertical, lateral, and longitudinal vibration. The present study shows that neural network based representations of all three UH-60A pilot floor vibration components (vertical, lateral, and longitudinal) can be obtained using the hub accelerations along with the gross weight and the advance ratio. The hub accelerations are clearly a factor in determining the pilot vibration. The present conclusions potentially allow for the identification of neural network relationships between the experimental hub accelerations obtained from wind tunnel testing and the experimental pilot vibration data obtained from flight testing. A successful establishment of the above neural network based link between the wind tunnel hub accelerations and the flight test vibration data can increase the value of wind tunnel testing.

UH-60A AIRCRAFT↗
NASA NTRS2010

Non-Targeted Effects and the Dose Response for Heavy Ion Tumorigenesis

BACKGROUND: There is no human epidemiology data available to estimate the heavy ion cancer risks experienced by astronauts in space. Studies of tumor induction in mice are a necessary step to estimate risks to astronauts. Previous experimental data can be better utilized to model dose response for heavy ion tumorigenesis and plan future low dose studies. DOSE RESPONSE MODELS: The Harderian Gland data of Alpen et al.[1-3] was re-analyzed [4] using non-linear least square regression. The data set measured the induction of Harderian gland tumors in mice by high-energy protons, helium, neon, iron, niobium and lanthanum with LET s ranging from 0.4 to 950 keV/micron. We were able to strengthen the individual ion models by combining data for all ions into a model that relates both radiation dose and LET for the ion to tumor prevalence. We compared models based on Targeted Effects (TE) to one motivated by Non-targeted Effects (NTE) that included a bystander term that increased tumor induction at low doses non-linearly. When comparing fitted models to the experimental data, we considered the adjusted R2, the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to test for Goodness of fit.In the adjusted R2test, the model with the highest R2values provides a better fit to the available data. In the AIC and BIC tests, the model with the smaller values of the summary value provides the better fit. The non-linear NTE models fit the combined data better than the TE models that are linear at low doses. We evaluated the differences in the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and found the NTE model provides a higher RBE at low dose compared to the TE model. POWER ANALYSIS: The final NTE model estimates were used to simulate example data to consider the design of new experiments to detect NTE at low dose for validation. Power and sample sizes were calculated for a variety of radiation qualities including some not considered in the Harderian Gland data set and with different background tumor incidences. We considered different experimental designs with varying number of doses and varying low doses dependant on the LET of the radiation. The optimal design to detect a NTE for an individual ion had 4 doses equally spaced below a maximal dose where bending due to cell sterilization was < 2%. For example at 100 keV/micron we would irradiate at 0.03 Gy, 0.065 Gy, 0.13 Gy, and 0.26 Gy and require 850 mice including a control dose for a sensitivity to detect NTE with 80% power. Sample sizes could be improved by combining ions similar to the methods used with the Harderian Gland data.

Chappelli, Lori J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

High strain-rate compression behavior of polymeric rod and plate Kelvin lattice structures

The compressive high strain-rate behavior of polymeric Kelvin lattice structures with rod-based or plate-based unit cells was investigated through experimental techniques and finite element simulations. Polymeric lattice structures with 5x5x5 unit cell geometries were manufactured on the millimeter scale using vat polymerization additive manufacturing and tested at low (0.001/s) and high (1000/s) strain-rates. High strain-rate experiments were performed and validated for a viscoelastic split-Hopkinson (Kolsky) pressure bar system (SHPB) coupled with high-speed imaging and digital image correlation (DIC). Experimental results at both low and high strain-rates show the formation of a localized deformation band which was more prevalent in low relative density specimens and low strain-rate experiments. Strain-rate effects of lattice specimens strongly correlate with effects of the base polymer material; both bulk polymer and lattice specimen demonstrated strain-rate hardening, strain-rate stiffening, and decreased fracture strain under dynamic loading. Results show mechanical failure properties and energy absorption depended strongly on the relative density of the lattice specimen and exhibited distinct scaling between relative density and geometry type (rod, plate) and loading rate. High relative density plate-lattices demonstrated inferior mechanical properties to rod-lattices; however, there exists a critical relative density for a given mechanical property (17%- 28%) below which plate-lattices outperform rod-lattices of similar mass. As a result, high strain-rate explicit finite element simulations were performed and showed good agreement with the mechanical failure trends and deformation modes observed in the experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Observations of the plasma flow in Comet P/Swift-Tuttle

We present direct ground based observations of the plasma flow sunward and tailward of the nucleus of Comet P/Swift-Tuttle. The observations are long-slit high resolution spectra of the H2O(+) emission centered at 6199 A with a velocity resolution of about 7 km/s FWHM and a spatial resolution of about 10 exp 4 km at the comet. Emission is visible from just inside the predicted position of the cometopause on the sunward side of the nucleus out to 5 x 10 exp 5 km on the tailward side. The deceleration of the solar plasma on the sunward side is clearly observed as is the acceleration of cometary ions into the tail. These observations show the effectiveness of ground based methods for the systematic study of cometary plasmas and point to the need for a better theoretical understanding of their acceleration mechanisms.

Brown, Michael E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The effect of hydrogen and microstructure on the deformation and fracture behavior of a single crystal nickel-base superalloy

A study was conducted on the effects of internal hydrogen and microstructure on the deformation and fracture of a single crystal nickel-base superalloy. In particular, room temperature plane strain fracture toughness and tensile tests were performed on hydrogen-free and hydrogen charged samples of PWA 1480. The role of microstructure was incorporated by varying the levels of porosity and eutectic gamma/gamma prime through hot isostatic pressing and heat treatment. The room temperature behavior of PWA 1480 was unusual because precipitate shearing was not the primary deformation mechanism at all strains. At strains over 1 percent, dislocations were trapped in the gamma matrix and an attempt was made to relate this behavior to compositional differences between PWA 1480 and other superalloys. Another unique feature of the tensile behavior was cleavage of the eutectic gamma/gamma prime, which is believed to initiate the failure process. Fracture occurred on (111) planes and is likely a result of shear localization along these planes. Elimination of the eutectic gamma/gamma prime greatly improved the tensile ductility, but pososity had no effect on tensile properties. Large quantities of hydrogen (1.74 at. percent) were gas-phase charged into the material, but surprisingly this was not a function of the amount of porosity or eutectic gamma/gamma prime present. Desorption experiments suggest that the vast majority of hydrogen is at reversible lattice trapping sites. This large, uniform concentration of hydrogen dramatically reduced the tensile strain to failure, but only slightly affected the reduction in area. Available hydrogen embrittlement models were examined in light of these results and it was found that the hydrogen enhanced localized plasticity model can explain much of the tensile behavior. K(IC) fracture toughness tests were conducted, but it was necessary to also perform J(IC) tests to provide valid data.

Walston, William S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Origin of the quasi-quantized Hall effect in ZrTe 5

The quantum Hall effect (QHE) is traditionally considered to be a purely two-dimensional (2D) phenomenon. Recently, however, a three-dimensional (3D) version of the QHE was reported in the Dirac semimetal ZrTe 5 . It was proposed to arise from a magnetic-field-driven Fermi surface instability, transforming the original 3D electron system into a stack of 2D sheets. Here, we report thermodynamic, spectroscopic, thermoelectric and charge transport measurements on such ZrTe 5 samples. The measured properties: magnetization, ultrasound propagation, scanning tunneling spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy, show no signatures of a Fermi surface instability, consistent with in-field single crystal X-ray diffraction. Instead, a direct comparison of the experimental data with linear response calculations based on an effective 3D Dirac Hamiltonian suggests that the quasi-quantization of the observed Hall response emerges from the interplay of the intrinsic properties of the ZrTe 5 electronic structure and its Dirac-type semi-metallic character.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS1994

A combined electron beam/optical lithography process step for the fabrication of sub-half-micron-gate-length MMIC chips

Advanced radar and communication systems rely heavily on state-of-the-art microelectronics. Systems such as the phased-array radar require many transmit/receive (T/R) modules which are made up of many millimeter wave - microwave integrated circuits (MMIC's). The heart of a MMIC chip is the Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) field-effect transistor (FET). The transistor gate length is the critical feature that determines the operating frequency of the radar system. A smaller gate length will typically result in a higher frequency. In order to make a phased array radar system economically feasible, manufacturers must be capable of producing very large quantities of small-gate-length MMIC chips at a relatively low cost per chip. This requires the processing of a large number of wafers with a large number of chips per wafer, minimum processing time, and a very high chip yield. One of the bottlenecks in the fabrication of MIMIC chips is the transistor gate definition. The definition of sub-half-micron gates for GaAs-based field-effect transistors is generally performed by direct-write electron beam lithography (EBL). Because of the throughput limitations of EBL, the gate-layer fabrication is conventionally divided into two lithographic processes where EBL is used to generate the gate fingers and optical lithography is used to generate the large-area gate pads and interconnects. As a result, two complete sequences of resist application, exposure, development, metallization and lift-off are required for the entire gate structure. We have baselined a hybrid process, referred to as EBOL (electron beam/optical lithography), in which a single application of a multi-level resist is used for both exposures. The entire gate structure, (gate fingers, interconnects and pads), is then formed with a single metallization and lift-off process. The EBOL process thus retains the advantages of the high-resolution E-beam lithography and the high throughput of optical lithography while essentially eliminating an entire lithography/metallization/lift-off process sequence. This technique has been proven to be reliable for both trapezoidal and mushroom gates and has been successfully applied to metal-semiconductor and high-electron-mobility field-effect transistor (MESFET and HEMT) wafers containing devices with gate lengths down to 0.10 micron and 75 x 75 micron gate pads. The yields and throughput of these wafers have been very high with no loss in device performance. We will discuss the entire EBOL process technology including the multilayer resist structure, exposure conditions, process sensitivities, metal edge definition, device results, comparison to the standard gate-layer process, and its suitability for manufacturing.

Sewell, James S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Based Resilience Testing of an Address Randomization Cyber Defense

Moving target defenses (MTDs) are widely used as an active defense strategy for thwarting cyberattacks on cyber-physical systems by increasing diversity of software and network paths. Recently, machine Learning (ML) and deep Learning (DL) models have been demonstrated to defeat some of the cyber defenses by learning attack detection patterns and defense strategies. It raises concerns about the susceptibility of MTD to ML and DL methods. Here, in this article, we analyze the effectiveness of ML and DL models when it comes to deciphering MTD methods and ultimately evade MTD-based protections in real-time systems. Specifically, we consider a MTD algorithm that periodically randomizes address assignments within the MIL-STD-1553 protocol—a military standard serial data bus. Two ML and DL-based tasks are performed on MIL-STD-1553 protocol to measure the effectiveness of the learning models in deciphering the MTD algorithm: 1) determining whether there is an address assignments change i.e., whether the given system employs a MTD protocol and if it does 2) predicting the future address assignments. The supervised learning models (random forest and k-nearest neighbors) effectively detected the address assignment changes and classified whether the given system is equipped with a specified MTD protocol. On the other hand, the unsupervised learning model (K-means) was significantly less effective. The DL model (long short-term memory) was able to predict the future addresses with varied effectiveness based on MTD algorithm's settings.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
NASA NTRS2008

Gravitational Radiation Characteristics of Nonspinning Black-Hole Binaries

"We present a detailed descriptive analysis of the gravitational radiation from binary mergers of non-spinning black holes, based on numerical relativity simulations of systems varying from equal-mass to a 6:1 mass ratio. Our analysis covers amplitude and phase characteristics of the radiation, suggesting a unified picture of the waveforms' dominant features in terms of an implicit rotating source. applying uniformly to the full wavetrain, from inspiral through ringdown. We construct a model of the late-stage frequency evolution that fits the $\ell = m$ modes, and identify late-time relationships between waveform frequency and amplitude. These relationships allow us to construct a predictive model for the late-time waveforms, an alternative to the common practice of modelling by a sum of quasinormal mode overtones. We demonstrate an application of this in a new effective-one-body-based analytic waveform model."

Kelly, Barnard↗
NASA NTRS2008

Gravitational Radiation Characteristics of Nonspinning Black-Hole Binaries

We present a detailed descriptive analysis of the gravitational radiation from binary mergers of non-spinning black holes, based on numerical relativity simulations of systems varying from equal-mass to a 6:1 mass ratio. Our analysis covers amplitude and phase characteristics of the radiation, suggesting a unified picture of the waveforms' dominant features in terms of an implicit rotating source, applying uniformly to the full wavetrain, from inspiral through ringdown. We construct a model of the late-stage frequency evolution that fits the l = m modes, and identify late-time relationships between waveform frequency and amplitude. These relationships allow us to construct a predictive model for the late-time waveforms, an alternative to the common practice of modelling by a sum of quasinormal mode overtones. We demonstrate an application of this in a new effective-one-body-based analytic waveform model.

Kelly, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Computation of aerodynamic interference effects on oscillating airfoils with controls in ventilated subsonic wind tunnels

Lift interference effects are discussed based on Bland's (1968) integral equation. A mathematical existence theory is utilized for which convergence of the numerical method has been proved for general (square-integrable) downwashes. Airloads are computed using orthogonal airfoil polynomial pairs in conjunction with a collocation method which is numerically equivalent to Galerkin's method and complex least squares. Convergence exhibits exponentially decreasing error with the number n of collocation points for smooth downwashes, whereas errors are proportional to 1/n for discontinuous downwashes. The latter can be reduced to 1/n to the m+1 power with mth-order Richardson extrapolation (by using m = 2, hundredfold error reductions were obtained with only a 13% increase of computer time). Numerical results are presented showing acoustic resonance, as well as the effect of Mach number, ventilation, height-to-chord ratio, and mode shape on wind-tunnel interference. Excellent agreement with experiment is obtained in steady flow, and good agreement is obtained for unsteady flow.

Fromme, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modern Hardness Assurance: A Brand New Game Except When it Isn't

Mission success criteria at the device level and required device operation/availability can determine the risk posed by the radiation effects for a given device in a given environment, but rarely are the same from one mission to another. A large portion of New Space / SmallSat missions to date have benefitted from relatively short mission durations and chosen orbits that have less severe particle populations than their larger counterparts. As mission objectives grow and become reliant on their chosen devices operating for longer lives and in more harsh environments, requirements need to reflect the changing scope but not hinder design adoptions from previously successful missions that provide new capabilities. This presentation describes notable differences in radiation environments, the requirement changes that come with choice of orbit, and prioritizations for mission success criteria to be determined by the designers of the system and subsystems. Test methodologies based on radiation effect categories are explained briefly; when they are needed. Similarity data (and its limitations) are discussed so that caveats and short-comings are understood. Reliability and assurance quantification may not always be possible, but determining where risks are taken and how to classify them is the essential topic for the intended practice: to establish radiation requirements with the goal of getting to mission success.

Campola, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effect of Clouds on Optical Imaging of the Space Shuttle During the Ascent Phase: A Statistical Analysis Based on a 3D Model

Clouds are highly effective in obscuring optical images of the Space Shuttle taken during its ascent by ground-based and airborne tracking cameras. Because the imagery is used for quick-look and post-flight engineering analysis, the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) recommended the return-to-flight effort include an upgrade of the imaging system to enable it to obtain at least three useful views of the Shuttle from lift-off to at least solid rocket booster (SRB) separation (NASA 2003). The lifetimes of individual cloud elements capable of obscuring optical views of the Shuttle are typically 20 minutes or less. Therefore, accurately observing and forecasting cloud obscuration over an extended network of cameras poses an unprecedented challenge for the current state of observational and modeling techniques. In addition, even the best numerical simulations based on real observations will never reach "truth." In order to quantify the risk that clouds would obscure optical imagery of the Shuttle, a 3D model to calculate probabilistic risk was developed. The model was used to estimate the ability of a network of optical imaging cameras to obtain at least N simultaneous views of the Shuttle from lift-off to SRB separation in the presence of an idealized, randomized cloud field.

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