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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Significance Testing for Mixed Priors: A Combined Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam’s razor via the multiplicity or trials factor in the look-elsewhere effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false-positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist maximum likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey’s prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the maximum likelihood test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations and generalize Wilks’ theorem beyond its usual regime of validity. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than 10 7 . We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the $p$-values derived from numerical simulations. We offer an interpretation of our formalism based on the statistical mechanics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the $p$-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as an energy versus entropy competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Substructure in the stellar halo near the Sun: I. Data-driven clustering in integrals-of-motion space

Context. Merger debris is expected to populate the stellar haloes of galaxies. In the case of the Milky Way, this debris should be apparent as clumps in a space defined by the orbital integrals of motion of the stars. Aims. Our aim is to develop a data-driven and statistics-based method for finding these clumps in integrals-of-motion space for nearby halo stars and to evaluate their significance robustly. Methods. We used data from Gaia EDR3, extended with radial velocities from ground-based spectroscopic surveys, to construct a sample of halo stars within 2.5 kpc from the Sun. We applied a hierarchical clustering method that makes exhaustive use of the single linkage algorithm in three-dimensional space defined by the commonly used integrals of motion energy E, together with two components of the angular momentum, L z and L ⊥ . To evaluate the statistical significance of the clusters, we compared the density within an ellipsoidal region centred on the cluster to that of random sets with similar global dynamical properties. By selecting the signal at the location of their maximum statistical significance in the hierarchical tree, we extracted a set of significant unique clusters. By describing these clusters with ellipsoids, we estimated the proximity of a star to the cluster centre using the Mahalanobis distance. Additionally, we applied the HDBSCAN clustering algorithm in velocity space to each cluster to extract subgroups representing debris with different orbital phases. Results. Our procedure identifies 67 highly significant clusters (> 3σ), containing 12% of the sources in our halo set, and 232 subgroups or individual streams in velocity space. In total, 13.8% of the stars in our data set can be confidently associated with a significant cluster based on their Mahalanobis distance. Inspection of the hierarchical tree describing our data set reveals a complex web of relations between the significant clusters, suggesting that they can be tentatively grouped into at least six main large structures, many of which can be associated with previously identified halo substructures, and a number of independent substructures. This preliminary conclusion is further explored in a companion paper, in which we also characterise the substructures in terms of their stellar populations. Conclusions. Our method allows us to systematically detect kinematic substructures in the Galactic stellar halo with a data-driven and interpretable algorithm. The list of the clusters and the associated star catalogue are provided in two tables available at the CDS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Linear systematics mitigation in galaxy clustering in the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Data

ABSTRACT We implement a linear model for mitigating the effect of observing conditions and other sources of contamination in galaxy clustering analyses. Our treatment improves upon the fiducial systematics treatment of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) cosmology analysis in four crucial ways. Specifically, our treatment (1) does not require decisions as to which observable systematics are significant and which are not, allowing for the possibility of multiple maps adding coherently to give rise to significant bias even if no single map leads to a significant bias by itself, (2) characterizes both the statistical and systematic uncertainty in our mitigation procedure, allowing us to propagate said uncertainties into the reported cosmological constraints, (3) explicitly exploits the full spatial structure of the galaxy density field to differentiate between cosmology-sourced and systematics-sourced fluctuations within the galaxy density field, and (4) is fully automated, and can therefore be trivially applied to any data set. The updated correlation function for the DES Y1 redMaGiC catalogue minimally impacts the cosmological posteriors from that analysis. Encouragingly, our analysis does improve the goodness-of-fit statistic of the DES Y1 3 × 2pt data set (Δχ2 = −6.5 with no additional parameters). This improvement is due in nearly equal parts to both the change in the correlation function and the added statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with our method. We expect the difference in mitigation techniques to become more important in future work as the size of cosmological data sets grows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Nested rain cell contour statistics derived from radar measurements in the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States

During a period spanning more than 5 years, a series of low elevation rain radar measurements encompassing 17 rain days were systematically executed in the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Drop size distribution measurements with a nearby disdrometer were also acquired during the same rain days. The drop size data were utilized to convert the radar reflectivity factors to estimated rain rates for the respective rain days of operation. Applying developed algorithms to the radar and disdrometer data, 'core' values of rain intensities and nested families of rain rate isopleths enveloping them were identified and their equi-circle diameters were statistically analyzed.

Goldhirsh, Julius↗

NASA NTRS2001

The AutoBayes Program Synthesis System: System Description

AUTOBAYES is a fully automatic program synthesis system for the statistical data analysis domain. Its input is a concise description of a data analysis problem in the form of a statistical model; its output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code which can be linked dynamically into the Matlab and Octave environments. AUTOBAYES synthesizes code by a schema-guided deductive process. Schemas (i.e., code templates with associated semantic constraints) are applied to the original problem and recursively to emerging subproblems. AUTOBAYES complements this approach by symbolic computation to derive closed-form solutions whenever possible. In this paper, we concentrate on the interaction between the symbolic computations and the deductive synthesis process. A statistical model specifies for each problem variable (i.e., data or parameter) its properties and dependencies in the form of a probability distribution, A typical data analysis task is to estimate the best possible parameter values from the given observations or measurements. The following example models normal-distributed data but takes prior information (e.g., from previous experiments) on the data's mean value and variance into account.

Fischer, Bernd↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Low-diffusion Xe-He gas mixtures for rare-event detection: electroluminescence yield

High pressure xenon Time Projection Chambers (TPC) based on secondary scintillation (electroluminescence) signal amplification are being proposed for rare event detection such as directional dark matter, double electron capture and double beta decay detection. The discrimination of the rare event through the topological signature of primary ionisation trails is a major asset for this type of TPC when compared to single liquid or double-phase TPCs, limited mainly by the high electron diffusion in pure xenon. Helium admixtures with xenon can be an attractive solution to reduce the electron diffusion significantly, improving the discrimination efficiency of these optical TPCs. We have measured the electroluminescence (EL) yield of Xe-He mixtures, in the range of 0 to 30% He and demonstrated the small impact on the EL yield of the addition of helium to pure xenon. For a typical reduced electric field of 2.5 kV/cm/bar in the scintillation region, the EL yield is lowered by ~ 2%, 3%, 6% and 10% for 10%, 15%, 20% and 30% of helium concentration, respectively. This decrease is less than what has been obtained from the most recent simulation framework in the literature. The impact of the addition of helium on EL statistical fluctuations is negligible, within the experimental uncertainties. The present results are an important benchmark for the simulation tools to be applied to future optical TPCs based on Xe-He mixtures.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computational thermodynamics and its applications

Thermodynamics is a science concerning the state of a system, whether it is stable, metastable or un- stable, when interacting with the surroundings. In this overview, fundamentals of thermodynamics are briefly reviewed through the combination of first and second laws of thermodynamics for open and nonequilibrium systems to demonstrate that the reversible equilibrium and irreversible nonequilibrium thermodynamics can be integrated to enhance the power and utilities of thermodynamics. The recent progresses in computational thermodynamics, the remaining challenges, and potential impacts in broad scientific fields are discussed here. It is shown that computational thermodynamics enables the modeling of thermodynamics of a state as a function of both external and internal variables and quantitative calculations of a broad range of properties of a multicomponent system in terms of first and second derivatives of energy, including not only equilibrium states when there are no driving forces for any internal processes and but also non-equilibrium states with driving forces for internal processes. Consequently, external constraints such as fixed strain and internal degree of freedoms such as ordering and defects can be described in a coherent framework and applied to materials design. Furthermore, two important but largely overlooked aspects in thermodynamics will be discussed, i.e. the rigorous application of statistical thermodynamics with the probability of configurations and their contributions to system properties, and the applications of second derivatives of energy with respect to either two extensive variables or two potentials or a mixture of them in terms of understanding and predicting emergent behaviors, critical phenomena, kinetic coefficients, and mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Classification of events from α -induced reactions in the MUSIC detector via statistical and ML methods

The Multi-Sampling Ionization Chamber (MUSIC) detector is typically used to measure nuclear reaction cross sections relevant for nuclear astrophysics, fusion studies, and other applications. From the MUSIC data produced in one experiment scientists carefully extract an order of 10 3 events of interest from about 10 9 total events, where each event can be represented by an 18-dimensional vector. However, the standard data classification process is based on expert driven, manually intensive data analysis techniques that require several months to identify patterns and classify the relevant events from the collected data. Here, to address this issue, we present a method for the classification of events originating from specific α-induced reactions by combining statistical and machine learning methods that require significantly less input from the domain scientist, relative to the standard technique. Here, we applied the new method to two experimental data sets and compared our results with those obtained using traditional methods. With few exceptions, the number of events classified by our method agrees within ±20% with the results obtained using traditional methods. With the present method, which is the first of its kind for the MUSIC data, we have established the foundation for the automated extraction of physical events of interest from experiments using the MUSIC detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transposon signatures of allopolyploid genome evolution

Hybridization brings together chromosome sets from two or more distinct progenitor species. Genome duplication associated with hybridization, or allopolyploidy, allows these chromosome sets to persist as distinct subgenomes during subsequent meioses. Here, we present a general method for identifying the subgenomes of a polyploid based on shared ancestry as revealed by the genomic distribution of repetitive elements that were active in the progenitors. This subgenome-enriched transposable element signal is intrinsic to the polyploid, allowing broader applicability than other approaches that depend on the availability of sequenced diploid relatives. We develop the statistical basis of the method, demonstrate its applicability in the well-studied cases of tobacco, cotton, and Brassica napus, and apply it to several cases: allotetraploid cyprinids, allohexaploid false flax, and allooctoploid strawberry. These analyses provide insight into the origins of these polyploids, revise the subgenome identities of strawberry, and provide perspective on subgenome dominance in higher polyploids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamics of filaments during the edge-localized mode crash on NSTX

Edge localized modes (ELMs) are routinely observed in H-mode plasma regimes of the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). Due to the explosive nature of the instability, only diagnostics with high temporal and spatial resolution could provide a detailed insight into the dynamics associated with the ELMs. Gas-puff imaging at NSTX provides 2D measurements of the magnetic field aligned fluctuations (e.g., ELM filaments) in the scrape-off layer and at the plasma edge with 2.5 μs temporal and 10 mm optical resolution. A novel analysis technique was developed to estimate the frame-by-frame velocities and the spatial parameters of the dominant structures associated with the ELMs. The analysis was applied to single ELM events to characterize the ELM crash dynamics and then extended to a database of 159 ELM events. Statistical analysis was performed in order to find the characterizing dynamics of the ELM crash. The results show that on average, an ELM crash consists of a filament with a circular cross section, which is propelled outward with a characterizing peak radial velocity of ~3.3 km/s. The radial velocity was found to be linearly dependent on the distance of the filament from the separatrix, which has never been seen before. The ELM filament is characterized by propagation in the ion-diamagnetic direction poloidally with a peak velocity of 11.4 km/s. The ELM crash lasts for approximately 100 μs until the radial propulsion settles back to the pre-ELM level. Furthermore, the experimental findings were compared with analytical theory. Two possible mechanisms were identified for explaining the observations: the curvature interchange model and the current–filament interaction model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model-independent determination of the strong-phase difference between D 0 and D ¯ 0 → π + π − π + π − decays

Measurements of the strong-phase difference between D 0 and D ¯ 0 → π + π − π + π − are performed in bins of phase space. The study exploits a sample of quantum-correlated D D ¯ mesons collected by the BESIII experiment in e + e − collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 3.773 GeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb − 1 . Here, D denotes a neutral charm meson in a superposition of flavor eigenstates. The reported results are valuable for measurements of the C P -violating phase γ (also denoted ϕ 3 ) in B ± → D K ± , D → π + π − π + π − decays, and the binning schemes are designed to provide good statistical sensitivity to this parameter. The expected uncertainty on γ arising from the precision of the strong-phase measurements, when applied to very large samples of B -meson decays, is around 1.5° or 2°, depending on the binning scheme. The binned strong-phase parameters are combined to give a value of F + 4 π = 0.746 ± 0.010 ± 0.004 for the C P -even fraction of D 0 → π + π − π + π − decays, which is around 30% more precise than the previous best measurement of this quantity. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ablikim, M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identifying neutron sources using recoil and time-of-flight spectroscopy

Identification of neutron sources is central to nuclear physics and its applications, from planetary science to nuclear security, yet direct source discrimination from measured neutron spectra remains fundamentally elusive. Here, we introduce a Bayesian protocol that directly infers source ensembles from measured neutron spectra by combining full-spectrum template matching with probabilistic evidence evaluation. Applying this protocol to recoil and time-of-flight spectroscopy, we recover single- and two-source configurations with strong statistical significance (beyond 4⁢𝜎) at event counts as low as ∼10 3 . These results demonstrate that neutron spectral signatures can be leveraged for robust source identification, opening a new observational window for both fundamental research and operationally driven applications.

neutron physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗

DOE OSTI2023

amsession/Kmer-based-Subgenome-Mapping

Session, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript on residence time distribution simulation in two 10-kilometer long river sections

This data package is associated with the publication “On the Transferability of Residence Time Distributions in Two 10-km Long River Sections with Similar Hydromorphic Units” submitted to the Journal of Hydrology (Bao et al. 2024).Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEFs) at the stream-groundwater interface, along with their residence time distributions (RTDs) in the subsurface, is crucial for managing water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridors. However, directly simulating high-spatial resolution HEFs and RTDs can be a time-consuming process, particularly for watershed-scale modeling. Efficient surrogate models that link RTDs to hydromorphic units (HUs) may serve as alternatives for simulating RTDs in large-scale models. One common concern with these surrogate models, however, is the transferability of the relationship between the RTDs and HUs from one river corridor to another. To address this, we evaluated the HEFs and the resulting RTD-HU relationships for two 10-kilometer-long river corridors along the Columbia River, using a one-way coupled three-dimensional transient surface-subsurface water transport modeling framework that we previously developed. Applying this framework to the two river corridors with similar HUs allows for quantitative comparisons of HEFs and RTDs using both statistical tests and machine learning classification models. This data package includes the model inputs files and the simulation results data. This data package contains 10 folders. The modeling simulation results data are in the folders 100H_pt_data and 300area_pt_data, for the study domain Hanford 100H and 300 area respectively. The remaining eight folders contain the scripts and data to generate the manuscript figures. The file-level metadata file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _flmd.csv) includes a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The data dictionary file (Bao_2024_Residence_Time_Distribution _dd.csv) includes column header definitions and units of all tabular files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Cross-correlation Study of High-energy Neutrinos and Tracers of Large-scale Structure

The origin of the bulk of the astrophysical neutrinos detected by the IceCube Observatory remains a mystery. Previous source-finding analyses compared the directions of IceCube events and individual sources in astrophysical catalogs. The source association method is technically challenging when the number of source candidates is much larger than the number of the observed astrophysical neutrinos. In this paper, we show that in this large source number regime, a two-point cross-correlation analysis of neutrino data and source catalog can instead be used to constrain potential source populations for the high-energy astrophysical neutrinos, and provide spatial evidence for the existence of astrophysical neutrinos. We present an analysis of the cross-correlation of the IceCube 2010–2012 point-source data and a WISE–2MASS galaxy sample. While we find no significant detection of cross-correlation with the publicly available neutrino data set, we show that, when applied to the full IceCube data, which has a longer observation time and higher astrophysical neutrino purity, our method has sufficient statistical power to detect a cross-correlation signal if the neutrino sources trace the large-scale structure of the universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗