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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strong gradient effects on neoclassical electron transport and the bootstrap current in large aspect ratio tokamaks

Standard approaches to neoclassical theory do not extend into regions of strong gradients in tokamaks such as the pedestal and internal transport barriers. Here, we calculate the modifications to neoclassical electron physics inside strong gradient regions of large aspect ratio tokamaks in the banana regime. We show that these modifications are due to the different ion flow and the strong poloidal variation of the potential. We also provide a physical interpretation of the mechanisms that drive poloidal asymmetries and hence a poloidal electric field. We apply our model to two specific example cases of pedestal profiles, calculating the neoclassical electron flux and the bootstrap current. We find that, depending on the ion flow, weak gradient neoclassical theory overestimates or underestimates the neoclassical electron transport and the bootstrap current in regions with strong gradients. We show that the determination of the mean parallel flow is more complex than in weak gradient neoclassical theory. For vanishing turbulence, we can determine the radial electric field for a given flow profile in the pedestal.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nuclear fragmentation at the future electron-ion collider

We explore the potential of conducting low-energy nuclear physics studies, including nuclear structure and decay, at the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) at Brookhaven. By comparing the standard theory of electron-nucleus scattering with the equivalent photon method applied to Ultraperipheral Collisions (UPC) at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN. In the limit of extremely high beam energies and small energy transfers, very transparent equations emerge. We apply these equations to analyze nuclear fragmentation in UPCs at the LHC and 𝑒𝐴 scattering at the EIC, demonstrating that the EIC could facilitate unique photonuclear physics studies. Furthermore, we have also shown that the fragmentation cross-sections at the EIC are about 1,000 times smaller than those at the LHC. At the LHC, the fragmentation of uranium nuclei displays characteristic double-hump mass distributions from fission events, while at the EIC, fragmentation is dominated by neutron emission and fewer few fission products, about 10,000 smaller number of events.

Bertulani, Carlos A. [East Texas A&M University, C↗
DOE OSTI2024

Is stochastic thermodynamics the key to understanding the energy costs of computation?

The relationship between the thermodynamic and computational properties of physical systems has been a major theoretical interest since at least the 19th century. It has also become of increasing practical importance over the last half-century as the energetic cost of digital devices has exploded. Importantly, real-world computers obey multiple physical constraints on how they work, which affects their thermodynamic properties. Moreover, many of these constraints apply to both naturally occurring computers, like brains or Eukaryotic cells, and digital systems. Most obviously, all such systems must finish their computation quickly, using as few degrees of freedom as possible. This means that they operate far from thermal equilibrium. Furthermore, many computers, both digital and biological, are modular, hierarchical systems with strong constraints on the connectivity among their subsystems. Yet another example is that to simplify their design, digital computers are required to be periodic processes governed by a global clock. None of these constraints were considered in 20th-century analyses of the thermodynamics of computation. The new field of stochastic thermodynamics provides formal tools for analyzing systems subject to all of these constraints. We argue here that these tools may help us understand at a far deeper level just how the fundamental thermodynamic properties of physical systems are related to the computation they perform.

computation↗
DOE OSTI2026

pop-cosmos : redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

ABSTRACT Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak-lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS (Kilo-Degree Survey)-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU (graphics processing unit)-accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim \!185\,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times 10^{-3}$), scatter ($\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2 per cent) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times 10^{-2}$, $\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0 per cent outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7 per cent of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37 per cent implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak-lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out of sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

Halder, Anik [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Ins↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity Assessment Tools for Distributed Energy Resources

This growing number of smart devices that support DERs can increase the number of access points outside a utility’s administrative domain, which can increase the potential for cyberattack. With the integration of DERs at federal sites, the cybersecurity vulnerabilities of DER systems must be understood and addressed. This presentation covers two NREL tools available. The Distributed Energy Resource Cybersecurity Framework (DER-CF) is a web-based holistic tool for evaluating cybersecurity posture including governance, physical security and technical management. The Distributed Energy Resource Risk Manager (DER-RM) extends the DER-CF by applying it to the NIST risk management framework process. It will be downloadable application that runs locally and documents all the major requirements for achieving Authority to Operate the DER.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical nuances of Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation

Abstract The fields of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed almost every aspect of science and engineering. The excitement for AI/ML methods is in large part due to their perceived novelty, as compared to traditional methods of statistics, computation, and applied mathematics. But clearly, all methods in ML have their foundations in mathematical theories, such as function approximation, uncertainty quantification, and function optimization. Autonomous experimentation is no exception; it is often formulated as a chain of off-the-shelf tools, organized in a closed loop, without emphasis on the intricacies of each algorithm involved. The uncomfortable truth is that the success of any ML endeavor, and this includes autonomous experimentation, strongly depends on the sophistication of the underlying mathematical methods and software that have to allow for enough flexibility to consider functions that are in agreement with particular physical theories. We have observed that standard off-the-shelf tools, used by many in the applied ML community, often hide the underlying complexities and therefore perform poorly. In this paper, we want to give a perspective on the intricate connections between mathematics and ML, with a focus on Gaussian process-driven autonomous experimentation. Although the Gaussian process is a powerful mathematical concept, it has to be implemented and customized correctly for optimal performance. We present several simple toy problems to explore these nuances and highlight the importance of mathematical and statistical rigor in autonomous experimentation and ML. One key takeaway is that ML is not, as many had hoped, a set of agnostic plug-and-play solvers for everyday scientific problems, but instead needs expertise and mastery to be applied successfully. Graphical abstract

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Well-balanced treatment of gravity in astrophysical fluid dynamics simulations at low Mach numbers

We report accurate simulations of flows in stellar interiors are crucial to improving our understanding of stellar structure and evolution. Because the typically slow flows are merely tiny perturbations on top of a close balance between gravity and the pressure gradient, such simulations place heavy demands on numerical hydrodynamics schemes. We demonstrate how discretization errors on grids of reasonable size can lead to spurious flows orders of magnitude faster than the physical flow. Well-balanced numerical schemes can deal with this problem. Three such schemes were applied in the implicit, finite-volume SEVEN-LEAGUE HYDRO code in combination with a low-Mach-number numerical flux function. We compare how the schemes perform in four numerical experiments addressing some of the challenges imposed by typical problems in stellar hydrodynamics. We find that the α-β and deviation well-balancing methods can accurately maintain hydrostatic solutions provided that gravitational potential energy is included in the total energy balance. They accurately conserve minuscule entropy fluctuations advected in an isentropic stratification, which enables the methods to reproduce the expected scaling of convective flow speed with the heating rate. The deviation method also substantially increases accuracy of maintaining stationary orbital motions in a Keplerian disk on long timescales. The Cargo–LeRoux method fares substantially worse in our tests, although its simplicity may still offer some merits in certain situations. Overall, we find the well-balanced treatment of gravity in combination with low Mach number flux functions essential to reproducing correct physical solutions to challenging stellar slow-flow problems on affordable collocated grids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Role of sheared E × B flow in self-organized, improved confinement states in magnetized plasmas

A great scientific success story of magnetic fusion research in the past several decades is the theoretical development and experimental testing of the process of turbulence decorrelation and stabilization by sheared E×B flow which shows that E×B shear effects are ubiquitous in magnetized plasmas. This concept of turbulence decorrelation and stabilization has the universality needed to explain the H-mode edge transport barriers seen in limiter and divertor tokamaks, stellarators, and mirror machines; the broader edge transport barrier seen in VHmode plasmas; and the core transport barriers formed in tokamaks. Similar effects are seen in linear devices. These examples of confinement improvement are of considerable physical interest; it is not often that a system self-organizes to reduce transport when an additional source of free energy is applied to it. The transport decrease associated with E×B velocity shear is also of great practical benefit to fusion research, since it contributed to substantially increased fusion yield in all DT magnetic fusion experiments conducted to date. The fundamental physics involved in transport reduction is the effect of E×B shear on the growth, radial extent, and phase correlation of turbulent eddies in the plasma. The same basic transport reduction process can be operational in various portions of the plasma because there are a number of ways to change the radial electric field Er. An important secondary theme in this area is the synergistic effect of E×B velocity shear and magnetic shear. Although the E×B velocity shear appears to have an effect on broader classes of microturbulence, magnetic shear can mitigate some potentially harmful effects of E×B velocity shear and facilitate turbulence stabilization. Our present understanding in this area is the result of a multi-decade, intertwined effort in theory, modeling and diagnostic development combined with continuing experimental investigations. These experiments have clearly demonstrated that increased E×B shear causes reductions in turbulence and transport. Finally, the experimental findings are generally consistent with the basic theoretical models although considerable work remains to be done before we have a fully predictive theory of transport in magnetized plasmas including E×B shear effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lattice QCD calculation of the pion distribution amplitude with domain wall fermions at physical pion mass

We present a direct lattice QCD calculation of the x-dependence of the pion distribution amplitude (DA), which is performed using the quasi-DA in large momentum effective theory on a domain-wall fermion ensemble at physical quark masses and spacing a ≈ 0.084 fm. The bare quais-DA matrix elements are renormalized in the hybrid scheme and matched to $\overline{MS}$ with a subtraction of the leading renormalon in the Wilson-line mass. For the first time, we include threshold resummation in the perturbative matching onto the light-cone DA, which resums the large logarithms in the soft gluon limit at next-to-next-to-leading log. The resummed results show controlled scale-variation uncertainty within the range of momentum fraction x ϵ [0.25, 0.75] at the largest pion momentum P z ≈ 1.85 GeV. In addition, we apply the same analysis to quasi-DAs from a highly-improved-staggered-quark ensemble at physical pion mass and a = 0.076 fm. By comparison we find with 2σ confidence level that the DA obtained from chiral fermions is flatter and lower near x = 0.5.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameterization of electron attachment rate constants for impurities in LArTPC detectors

The ability of free electrons to drift long distances at high velocities in pure liquid argon under an applied electric field has been exploited for the past forty years to implement detectors with increasingly larger volumes for high energy physics research. The attachment of free electrons to impurities in the LAr is an important limit on the free instrumented volume of these extremely large detectors, and impurity concentrations as small as 100 ppt can reduce their resolution and efficiency. In this paper, we summarize the electron attachment rate constants as a function of the applied electric field, for common impurities in LArTPCs, obtained from data in the literature. Here, we further provide analytical functions to parameterize the data, which are useful to compare with new measurements, to model and analyze the performance of existing detectors, and to predict the performance of new detectors.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the Impact of Realistic Sensor Physics and the Integration of Ex-Core Sensors on Reactor Power Synthesis

In the work documented in this report, a weighting function–based core power synthesis method was applied to multiple Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) reactor models, which are informed based on simulated self-powered neutron detector (SPND) responses. The weighting function method used has been coined the point-based iterative (PBI) method. The goal of this application is to assess the impact of considering realistic sensor physics in the generation of the simulated SPND outputs as well as to consider how the synthesis is impacted based on the inclusion of ex-core detectors in the model. The NuScale small modular reactor (SMR) and Westinghouse AP1000 pressurized water reactor (PWR) are the models that served as the testbeds for the assessment of realistic sensor physics; this was achieved by using Geant4 SPND models in comparison with analytical models, such that the effect of electron transport in realistic SPND geometries in the Geant4 model can be understood in terms of synthesis error and convergence time. The comparison was considered for fuel burnup–induced perturbations, for a range of sensor string densities and synthesized power distribution axial fidelities. The Texas A&M Testing, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics Reactor (TAMU TRIGA) reactor MCNP model was used to assess the impact of ex-core sensors; this was done by performing synthesis with and without the ex-core detectors and by quantifying the synthesis error and number of iterations associated with Gaussian-type perturbations in many locations in the core. The TAMU TRIGA model was particularly pertinent for this study because of the interest in future experimental tests with SPNDs in this reactor, as well as the ease of modifying the MCNP model to include ex-core detectors with heterogeneously described response functions. Results from the comparison between the Geant4 and analytical SPND models indicate that similar average and maximum synthesis errors were obtained for burnup-induced perturbations in both the NuScale SMR and the AP1000. This was true for a range of sensor string densities and axial fidelities. However, there were marked differences between both the Geant4 and analytically informed models in terms of the iterations required to converge on the synthesized power distribution. Namely, the Geant4-informed models tended to lead to fewer iterations, except for a few sensor–core configurations that had particularly numerous iterations. Results from the ex-core sensor assessment with the TAMU TRIGA model indicate that the inclusion of ex-core sensors drastically reduces the synthesis error of Gaussian-type perturbations close to the edge of the core, and it slightly reduces synthesis errors for perturbations closer to the center of the core. This was achieved with a minimal increase in computational cost—that is, the number of iterations required for convergence. The errors were identified to be in the same location as the perturbation in the core, indicating that the methodology remains robust for unperturbed regions of the core. A secondary result from this study with the TAMU TRIGA was yielded by analysis of the neutron flux levels in the in-core and ex-core sensor locations of the core; these flux levels indicate that SPNDs could be used as both in-core and ex-core sensors, so long as the emitter material is sensitive to thermal neutrons. The results from these studies provide a quantitative understanding of the importance of considering realistic sensor physics and including ex-core sensors to perform accurate and timely power distribution synthesis of a reactor core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Co-Optimized Machine Learned Manifolds for Modeling Chemically Reacting Flows

Chemically reacting flows play a key role in a wide range of engineered systems, from chemical and polymer processing to combustion-based energy conversion technologies. Simulations of these flows involve solving a coupled set of partial differential equations for mass, momentum, energy, and all relevant chemical species in the system. Chemical reaction pathways may be extremely complex and involve hundreds or more intermediate species, with reactions that occur over timescales varying by several orders of magnitude - presenting a significant numerical stiffness challenge. The combination of these factors makes simulation of chemically reacting flows vastly more expensive than nonreactive simulations, and often makes direct solution of the governing equations intractable. It is necessary to apply lower-fidelity models in place of the detailed governing equations in order to reduce computational cost to enable reacting flow simulation tools to be used in the engineering design process. Many of the models employed for this purpose are based on reducing the dimension of the thermochemical state, motivated by the observation that the observed thermochemical states in a system lie on a low-dimensional manifold in thermochemical state space. This behavior occurs due to the fast equilibration of certain reactive and transport processes, and physics-based manifold models rely on idealized assumptions about the balance of timescales and the way in which chemistry and transport are coupled. In this work, we apply a novel method for data-driven manifold-based modeling that can leverage data from high-fidelity reacting flow simulations to improve model accuracy in cases where the physics-based modeling assumptions break down. The approach is designed to be broadly applicable across chemically reacting flow systems but is applied here to turbulent combustion modeling.

machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewal: Coherent control of spin states in organic electronics – discovery and investigation of complex room-temperature magnetic quantum excitations

In the course of four funding cycles of this project, its research focused on the exploration and understanding of spin-dependent electronic processes in organic semiconductors. It aimed to investigate the potential of harnessing the spin degree of freedom in organic materials for various applications such as spin electronics, quantum information, sensors, and as well as quantum coherent spin phenomena of charge carrier states in organic semiconductors, with the aim to develop room-temperature-based quantum applications. Specifically, the project aimed to: Apply new diagnostic tools, i.e. spin spectroscopy techniques, for paramagnetic charge carrier states in organic semiconductors, based on coherent control with pulsed electron spin resonance to understand spin relaxation and spin mixing mechanisms in organic semiconductor materials and devices such as OLEDs. Explore the nature of charge carrier spin-coupling and pathways for its manipulation to control the physical behaviors of these materials. This involves investigating spin interactions through materials structure, composition, morphological dependencies, isotopic effects, and externally applied electric and magnetic fields, with the goal to manipulate electrical and optical material properties by adjusting spin-orbit, spin-dipolar, spin-exchange, as well as spin-hyperfine interactions to open up this materials class for new applications. Study spin-dependent charge carrier transport and recombination and how these observables are governed by spin-propagation, especially coherent spin propagation as well as collective spin-effects such as the spin-Dicke effect and resonant multi-photon magnetic dipole transitions. The project utilized pulsed electrically detected magnetic resonance (pEDMR) and pulsed optically detected magnetic resonance (pODMR) techniques over a wide frequency range. These techniques enabled the observation and quantification of various spin-spin coupling types, including spin-exchange, spin-dipolar, hyperfine, and spin-orbit interactions. The project will leverage low- to mid-frequency pEDMR/pODMR facilities and collaboration with the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unsupervised discovery of nonlinear plasma physics using differentiable kinetic simulations

Plasma supports collective modes and particle–wave interactions that lead to complex behaviour in, for example, inertial fusion energy applications. While plasma can sometimes be modelled as a charged fluid, a kinetic description is often crucial for studying nonlinear effects in the higher-dimensional momentum–position phase space that describes the full complexity of the plasma dynamics. We create a differentiable solver for the three-dimensional partial-differential equation describing the plasma kinetics and introduce a domain-specific objective function. Using this framework, we perform gradient-based optimization of neural networks that provide forcing function parameters to the differentiable solver given a set of initial conditions. We apply this to an inertial-fusion-relevant configuration and find that the optimization process exploits a novel physical effect.

plasma nonlinear phenomena↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Coupled Cluster Equations by the Newton Krylov Method

We describe using the Newton Krylov method to solve the coupled cluster equation. The method uses a Krylov iterative method to compute the Newton correction to the approximate coupled cluster amplitude. The multiplication of the Jacobian with a vector, which is required in each step of a Krylov iterative method such as the Generalized Minimum Residual (GMRES) method, is carried out through a finite difference approximation, and requires an additional residual evaluation. The overall cost of the method is determined by the sum of the inner Krylov and outer Newton iterations. We discuss the termination criterion used for the inner iteration and show how to apply pre-conditioners to accelerate convergence. We will also examine the use of regularization technique to improve the stability of convergence and compare the method with the widely used direct inversion of iterative subspace (DIIS) methods through numerical examples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗