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At least 955 records · Page 53

Why do we need detailed gravity over continents: Some Australian examples

Geophysical quantities available over a continent are gravity and components of the magnetic field. Direct inferences on crustal structure are difficult to make and strongly dependent on mechanical assumptions the isostatic state. The data for Australia represents one of the best continental scale gravity surveys. The gravity anomalies are generally bland over the continent which confirms that stress relaxation and erosion and rebound were instrumental in reducing nonhydrostatic stresses. In central Australia very large gravity anomalies occur and the region is out of isostatic equilibrium despite the fact that tectonic activity ceased 300 ma ago. The isostatic response functions points to a substantial horizontal compression in the crust. Similar conclusions are drawn for the large anomalies in western Australia. The tectonic implications of these anomalies are examined. In eastern Australia the gravity anomalies are explained in terms of a model of erosion of the highlands and concomitant regional isostatic rebound.

Lambeck, K.↗

Current Developments in Future Planetary Probe Sensors for TPS

In-situ Thermal Protection System (TPS) sensors are required to provide traceability of TPS performance and sizing tools. Traceability will lead to higher fidelity design tools, which in turn will lead to lower design safety margins, and decreased heatshield mass. Decreasing TPS mass will enable certain missions that are not otherwise feasible, and directly increase science payload. NASA Ames is currently developing two flight measurements as essential to advancing the state of TPS traceability for material modeling and aerothermal simulation: heat flux and surface recession (for ablators). The heat flux gage is applicable to both ablators and non-ablators and is therefore the more generalized sensor concept of the two with wider applicability to mission scenarios. This paper describes the development of a microsensor capable of surface and in-depth temperature and heat flux measurements for TPS materials appropriate to Titan, Neptune, and Mars aerocapture, and direct entry. The thermal sensor will be monolithic solid state devices composed of thick film platinum RTD on an alumina substrate. Choice of materials and critical dimensions are used to tailor gage response, determined during calibration activities, to specific (forebody vs. aftbody) heating environments. Current design has maximum operating temperature of 1500 K, and allowable constant heat flux of q=28.7 watts per square centimeter, and time constants between 0.05 and 0.2 seconds. The catalytic and radiative response of these heat flux gages can also be changed through the use of appropriate coatings. By using several co-located gages with various surface coatings, data can be obtained to isolate surface heat flux components due to radiation, catalycity and convection. Selectivity to radiative heat flux is a useful feature even for an in-depth gage, as radiative transport may be a significant heat transport mechanism for porous TPS materials in Titan aerocapture. This paper also reports on progress to adapt a previously flown surface recession sensor, based on the Jupiter probe Galileo Analog Resistance Ablation Detector (ARAD), to appropriate aerocapture conditions.

Martinez, Ed↗

The Climate of Early Mars

The nature of the early Martian climate is one of the major unanswered questions of planetary science. Key challenges remain, but a new wave of orbital and in situ observations and improvements in climate modeling have led to significant advances over the past decade. Multiple lines of geologic evidence now point to an episodically warm surface during the late Noachian and early Hesperian periods 3–4 Ga. The low solar flux received by Mars in its first billion years and inefficiency of plausible greenhouse gases such as CO2 mean that the steady-state early Martian climate was likely cold. A denser CO2 atmosphere would have caused adiabatic cooling of the surface and hence migration of water ice to the higher-altitude equatorial and southern regions of the planet. Transient warming caused melting of snow and ice deposits and a temporarily active hydrological cycle, leading to erosion of the valley networks and other fluvial features. Precise details of the warming mechanisms remain unclear, but impacts, volcanism, and orbital forcing all likely played an important role. The lack of evidence for glaciation across much of Mars’s ancient terrain suggests the late Noachian surface water inventory was not sufficient to sustain a northern ocean. Though mainly inhospitable on the surface, early Mars may nonetheless have presented significant opportunities for the development of microbial life.

Mars↗

PLANETARY DEFENSE: FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PLANETARY SCIENCE AND ASTROBIOLOGY DECADAL SURVEY 2023 - 2032

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was chartered by the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD), with support from the National Science Foundation, to conduct a new decadal survey to develop a comprehensive science and mission strategy for planetary science (1). The survey was tasked to determine the current state of knowledge and to identify the most important scientific questions to be addressed in astrobiology and planetary science during the upcoming decade of 2023 - 2032. For the first time, the decadal survey also included and addressed the topic of planetary defense, now recognized as a key element of NASA’s planetary science activities under the direction of NASA’s SMD Planetary Defense Coordination Office. The topic of planetary defense was included in the decadal survey as a dedicated chapter, divided into five sections based on the framework from the U.S. National NEO Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (2). These sections discussed: NEO Detection, Tracking, and Characterization NEO Modelling, Prediction, and Integration NEO Deflection and Disruption Missions International Cooperation on NEO Preparation NEO Impact Emergency Procedures and Action Protocols Content of these sections included identifying the activities, ground- and space-based assets, facilities, resources, technologies, and missions that should be considered to enable NEO preparedness over the next decade. Supporting inputs to this chapter involved contributions from submitted white papers authored by many members of the NEO science and planetary defense communities. In addition, a planetary defense rapid mission architecture study commissioned by the decadal survey small bodies panel and led by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory examined several different types of in-situ characterization and mitigation demonstration missions. All of this input contributed to the formulation of 42 findings and 11 recommendations that suggest a path forward for increasing our understanding of the NEO population and their associated physical characteristics, modelling the impact probabilities and hazard potential of these objects, and implementing plans to develop and test NEO impact mitigation capabilities. Including planetary defense in the decadal survey has helped sharpen the focus on this international issue and provided key inputs for stakeholders and decision makers to consider when developing future planetary defense-related activities. Such information is vital for developing a long-term integrated planetary defense capability able to protect humanity in the decades to come.

NEO Detection and Characterization↗

Solar-terrestrial influences on weather and climate; Proceedings of the Symposium, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, August 24-28, 1978

The book contains most of the invited papers and contributions presented at the symposium/workshop on solar-terrestrial influences on weather and climate. Four main issues dominate the activities of the symposium: whether solar variability relationships to weather and climate is a fundamental scientific question to which answers may have important implications for long-term weather and climate prediction; the sun-weather relationships; other potential solar influences on weather including the 11-year sunspot cycle, the 27-day solar rotation, and special solar events such as flares and coronal holes; and the development of practical use of solar variability as a tool for weather and climatic forecasting, other than through empirical approaches. Attention is given to correlation topics; solar influences on global circulation and climate models; lower and upper atmospheric coupling, including electricity; planetary motions and other indirect factors; experimental approaches to sun-weather relationships; and the role of minor atmospheric constituents.

Mccormac, B. M.↗

[Activities of Colorado University]

During the report period we completed several studies and embarked on a new set of laboratory experiments. We also hired a new post-doctoral Research Associate, Momir Stepanovic, who has gradually assumed leadership in the laboratory work. The other person involved has been graduate student Brian Eichelberger, who will complete his Ph.D. based on this work by late spring of this year. We have also continued to collaborate with our previous postdoctoral Research Associate, Valery Le Page, through a consulting arrangement. In the following sections we summarize work that has been completed and either in print, in press, or in final stages of preparation for publication; current work being carried out in the laboratory; and plans for the coming year. Work completed in 2002: 1. Modeling the physical and chemical states of PAHs in the diffuse interstellar medium. 2. Hydrogenation and charge states of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in diffuse clouds. 3. Laboratory studies of chemical reactions involving carbon chain anions.

Snow, Theodore P.↗

Rotary-wing aeroelasticity with application to VTOL vehicles

This survey presents an assessment of the state of the art in rotary-wing aeroelasticity as applied to conventional helicopters as well as other VTOL vehicles such as tilting prop-rotors, the X-wing and a hybrid heavy lift vehicle. The objective is to enable the reader to develop an awareness of what has been accomplished, what remains to be done, and where to find more comprehensive treatments of the various topics discussed. The main topics discussed are: (1) structural modeling; (2) unsteady aerodynamic modeling; (3) formulation of the equations of motion and their solutions; (4) illustrative results for isolated blades in hover and forward flight; (5) illustrative results for coupled rotor/fuselage problems; (6) active control of aeromechanical and aeroelastic problems; (7) active controls for vibration reduction; (8) structural optimization with aeroelastic constraints; (9) gust response analysis of rotors; and (10) aeroelastic problems in special VTOL vehicles. These topics are reviewed with different levels of detail and some useful observation on potentially rewarding areas of future research are made.

Friedmann, Peretz P.↗

Plasma Properties and Magnetic Field Structure of the Solar Corona, Based on Coordinated Max 1991 Observations from SERTS, the VLA, and Magnetographs

The purposes of this investigation are to determine the plasma properties and magnetic field structure of the solar corona using coordinated observations obtained with NASA/GSFC's Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), the Very Large Array (VLA), and magnetographs. The observations were obtained under the auspices of NASA's Max '91 program. The methods of achieving the stated purposes are to use SERTS spectra and spectroheliograms to determine coronal plasma properties such as temperature, density, and emission measure. These properties are subsequently used to calculate the intensity of the thermal bremsstrahlung microwave emission from the coronal plasma (the minimum microwave intensity expected from the emitting plasma). This, in turn, can be used to establish which emission mechanism(s) contribute to the observed microwave emission. Because both mechanisms that may contribute to quiescent active region microwave emission (thermal bremsstrahlung and thermal gyroemission) depend upon the coronal magnetic field in known ways, this information can ultimately be used to derive the coronal magnetic field. Ideally, three-dimensional models of the coronal plasma and magnetic field which are consistent with all of the EUV spectra and spectroheliograms, as well as with the intensity and polarization maps at all of the microwave observing frequencies, can be derived. For completeness, the coronal magnetic field derived from the coordinated multiwaveband observations must be compared with extrapolations from photospheric magnetograms.

Brosius, Jeffrey W.↗

Numerical Simulations of Non-Newtonian Convection in Ice: Application to Europa

Numerical simulations of solid state convection in Europa's ice shell have so far been limited to consideration of Newtonian flow laws, where the viscosity of ice is strongly dependent upon temperature, predicting that a stagnant lid should form at the top (10-40%) of a convecting ice shell. Such large thicknesses seem to contradict estimates of the effective elastic thickness of Europa s ice shell during its geologically active period. Recent laboratory experiments characterize the rheology of ice as the sum of contributions from several temperature and strain rate-dependent creep mechanisms. We present the results of numerical simulations of convection within Europa s ice shell using the finite-element model Citcom, applying the non-Newtonian rheology of grain boundry sliding. Our calculations suggest a shallower brittle/ductile transition and larger interior convective velocities compared to Newtonian rheology. The flow field is time-dependent, with small, localized upwellings and downwellings at the thermal boundary layers that have minimal topographic expression at the surface.

Barr, A. C.↗

Final Report Document: Microgravity Medical Eyewash B

Senior Capstone Design Team 15 has been commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to redesign the current microgravity eye wash station. The current design exhibits four primary limitations: single-use operation, excessive mass and volume, operational complexity requiring coordination with external systems, and dependence on frequent Earth resupply missions. Our updated eyewash design will be deployed on long-range space missions that could last multiple years. Based on these and other requirements from our customer, we have developed our updated eyewash design. Our compact, single-eye system uses capillary-driven flow and a free-floating water ball. This design allows us to eliminate pumps and bulky tubing, decreasing the mass and volume of the overall system. The containment eyecup is held to the astronaut's face with a strap, and a silicone seal prevents leakage while improving user comfort. Contaminated water is contained within a disposal bag containing wicking material to pull it back out of the eyecup after washing the eye. This system is reusable, efficient, and easy to activate quickly. We evaluated our design through calculations, microfluidic testing, and user try-on testing to verify our requirements. Our work demonstrated that steady-state flow was capable with our capillary framework, achieving 1.31 L/min. The prototype construction confirmed mass and volume reductions, and try-on-testing evaluated the ability to put on the system quickly. Almost all major design requirements were achieved, and water loss could be validated by testing in microgravity. Our design went through a number of iterations to reach the final solution presented in this report. These changes were driven by our testing and collaboration from each member of the team. Updated models optimized tube placement and geometry of the eyecup to better direct flow as it pools across the eye. Changes to our tubing bends improved capillary efficiency and increased the flow rate we were capable of achieving. And improved bracket placements adjusted the fit, comfort, and seal of the eyecup to the astronaut's face. Our capillary-based eyewash system is technically feasible and has been theoretically validated to operate effectively in microgravity conditions. Testing and analysis indicate that it can meet or exceed the required performance metrics, including flow rate and safety constraints. Overall, the design represents a viable alternative to current ISS-dependent eyewash systems for future space missions.

Jeffrey Allen↗

Assimilation of Gridded Terrestrial Water Storage Observations from GRACE into a Land Surface Model

Observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 km(sup 2) at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This work proposes a variant of existing ensemble-based GRACE-TWS data assimilation schemes. The new algorithm differs in how the analysis increments are computed and applied. Existing schemes correlate the uncertainty in the modeled monthly TWS estimates with errors in the soil moisture profile state variables at a single instant in the month and then apply the increment either at the end of the month or gradually throughout the month. The proposed new scheme first computes increments for each day of the month and then applies the average of those increments at the beginning of the month. The new scheme therefore better reflects submonthly variations in TWS errors. The new and existing schemes are investigated here using gridded GRACE-TWS observations. The assimilation results are validated at the monthly time scale, using in situ measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture across the U.S. The new assimilation scheme yields improved (although not in a statistically significant sense) skill metrics for groundwater compared to the open-loop (no assimilation) simulations and compared to the existing assimilation schemes. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture, which have a shorter memory and receive smaller increments from TWS assimilation than groundwater. These results motivate future efforts to combine GRACE-TWS observations with observations that are more sensitive to surface soil moisture, such as L-band brightness temperature observations from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) or Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Finally, we demonstrate that the scaling parameters that are applied to the GRACE observations prior to assimilation should be consistent with the land surface model that is used within the assimilation system.

GRACE↗

Molecular Mechanisms Regulating Muscle Fiber Composition Under Microgravity

The overall goal of this project is to reveal the molecular mechanisms underlying the selective and debilitating atrophy of specific skeletal muscle fiber types that accompanies sustained conditions of microgravity. Since little is currently known about the regulation of fiber-specific gene expression programs in mammalian muscle, elucidation of the basic mechanisms of fiber diversification is a necessary prerequisite to the generation of therapeutic strategies for attenuation of muscle atrophy on earth or in space. Vertebrate skeletal muscle development involves the fusion of undifferentiated mononucleated myoblasts to form multinucleated myofibers, with a concomitant activation of muscle-specific genes encoding proteins that form the force-generating contractile apparatus. The regulatory circuitry controlling skeletal muscle gene expression has been well studied in a number of vertebrate animal systems. The goal of this project has been to achieve a similar level of understanding of the mechanisms underlying the further specification of muscles into different fiber types, and the role played by innervation and physical activity in the maintenance and adaptation of different fiber phenotypes into adulthood. Our recent research on the genetic basis of fiber specificity has focused on the emergence of mature fiber types and have implicated a group of transcriptional regulatory proteins, known as E proteins, in the control of fiber specificity. The restriction of E proteins to selected muscle fiber types is an attractive hypothetical mechanism for the generation of muscle fiber-specific patterns of gene expression. To date our results support a model wherein different E proteins are selectively expressed in muscle cells to determine fiber-restricted gene expression. These studies are a first step to define the molecular mechanisms responsible for the shifts in fiber type under conditions of microgravity, and to determine the potential importance of E proteins as upstream targets for the effects of weightlessness. In the past year we have determined that the expression of E Proteins is restricted to specific fiber types by post-transcriptional mechanisms. By far, the most prevalent mechanism of cellular control for achieving post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression is selective proteolysis -through the ubiquitin -proteasome pathway. Steady-state levels of HEB message are similar in all fast and slow skeletal muscle fiber types, yet the protein is restricted to Type IIX fibers. HEB appears to be a nodal point for regulating fiber-specific transcription, as expression of the transcription factor is regulated at the post-transcriptional level. It is not clear at present whether the regulation is at the level of protein synthesis or degradation. We are now poised to evaluate the biological role of ubiquitination in fiber specific-gene expression by controlling the post-transcriptional expression of E Proteins. The use of metabolic labelling and pharmacological inhibitors of the ubiquitin pathway will be used to identify the mode of regulation of the Type IIX expression pattern. The potential role of specific kinases in effecting the restriction of HEB expression will be examined by using both inhibitors and activators. The results of these studies will provide the necessary information to evaluate the biological role of E proteins in controlling fiber type transitions, and in potentially attenuating the atrophic effects of microgravity conditions. We have also recently shown that ectopic expression of the HEB protein transactivates the Type IIX-specific skeletal a-actin reporter. The 218 bp skeletal a-actin promoter drives transgene expression solely in mature Type IIX fibers. A mouse also carrying the transgene MLCI/HEB (which ectopically expresses the E Protein HEB in Type IIB fibers) forces expression of the skeletal a-actin reporter gene in Type IIB fibers. We can now dissect the composition of this fiber-specific cis-element. The skeletal a-actin promoter is quite compact and has been extensively characterized in vitro for activity and binding factors. The single E box may act as a binding target of myogenic factor/HEB heterodimer to allow for IIX expression. The HEB transcription factor may recognize either the precise flanking sequences of the E Box, or perhaps interacting with other proteins bound nearby, and activating expression in Type IIX fibers. This E box will be both ablated, and alternatively, as ablation may well destroy any muscle-specific transcriptional activity, flanking sequences substituted with those surrounding the E box (El) of the myogenin promoter. Modification of fiber-specific transgene expression will be tested in transgenic mice. The results of these studies will provide basic information on the regulatory circuitry underlying fiber specificity, and will form the basis for building appropriate transgenic regulatory cassettes to effect fiber transitions in subsequent experimental manipulations on unweighted muscles.

Rosenthal, Nadia A.↗

Development of Solid State Thermal Sensors for Aeroshell TPS Flight Applications

In-situ Thermal Protection System (TPS) sensors are required to provide verification by traceability of TPS performance and sizing tools. Traceability will lead to higher fidelity design tools, which in turn will lead to lower design safety margins, and decreased heatshield mass. Decreasing TPS mass will enable certain missions that are not otherwise feasible, and directly increase science payload. NASA Ames is currently developing two flight measurements as essential to advancing the state of TPS traceability for material modeling and aerothermal simulation: heat flux and surface recession (for ablators). The heat flux gage is applicable to both ablators and non-ablators and is therefore the more generalized sensor concept of the two with wider applicability to mission scenarios. This paper describes the continuing development of a thermal microsensor capable of surface and in-depth temperature and heat flux measurements for TPS materials appropriate to Titan, Neptune, and Mars aerocapture, and direct entry. The thermal sensor is a monolithic solid state device composed of thick film platinum RTD on an alumina substrate. Choice of materials and critical dimensions are used to tailor gage response, determined during calibration activities, to specific (forebody vs. aftbody) heating environments. Current design has maximum operating temperature of 1500K, and allowable constant heat flux of q=28.7 W/cm(sup 2), and time constants between 0.05 and 0.2 seconds. The catalytic and radiative response of these heat flux gages can also be changed through the use of appropriate coatings. By using several co-located gages with various surface coatings, data can be obtained to isolate surface heat flux components due to radiation, catalycity and convection. Selectivity to radiative heat flux is a useful feature even for an in-depth gage, as radiative transport may be a significant heat transport mechanism for porous TPS materials in Titan aerocapture.

Martinez, Ed↗

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Daigle, Matthew↗

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)↗

GRACE Improves Seasonal Groundwater Forecast Initialization Over the United States

We evaluate the impact of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data assimilation (GRACE-DA) on seasonal hydrological forecast initialization over the United States, focusing on groundwater storage. GRACE-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates are assimilated into a land surface model for the2003–16 period. Three-month hindcast (i.e., forecast of past events) simulations are initialized using states from the reference (no data assimilation) and GRACE-DA runs. Differences between the two initial hydrological condition (IHC) sets are evaluated for two forecast techniques at 305 wells where depth to water table measurements are available. Results show that using GRACE-DA-based IHC improves seasonal groundwater forecast performance in terms of both RMSE and correlation. While most regions show improvement, degradation is common in the High Plains, where withdrawals for irrigation practices affect groundwater variability more strongly than the weather variability, which demonstrates the need for simulating such activities. These findings contribute to recent efforts toward an improved U.S. drought monitoring and forecast system.

Augusto Getirana↗

Cosmic plasma

Attention is given to experimental and theoretical approaches to plasma physics, plasma phenomena in laboratory and space, field and particle aspects of plasmas, the present state of the classical theory, boundary conditions and circuit dependence, and cosmology. Electric currents in space plasmas are considered, taking into account dualism in physics, particle-related phenomena in plasma physics, magnetic field lines, filaments, local plasma properties and the circuit, electric double layers, field-aligned currents as 'cables', an expanding circuit, different types of plasma regions, the cellular structure of space, and the fine structure of active plasma regions. Other topics discussed are related to circuits, the theory of cosmic plasmas, the origin of the solar system, the coexistence of matter and antimatter, annihilation as a source of energy, the Hubble expansion in a Euclidean space, and a model for the evolution of the Metagalaxy.

Alfven, H.↗

Sequential estimation and satellite data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography

The central theme of this review article is the role that dynamics plays in estimating the state of the atmosphere and of the ocean from incomplete and noisy data. Objective analysis and inverse methods represent an attempt at relying mostly on the data and minimizing the role of dynamics in the estimation. Four-dimensional data assimilation tries to balance properly the roles of dynamical and observational information. Sequential estimation is presented as the proper framework for understanding this balance, and the Kalman filter as the ideal, optimal procedure for data assimilation. The optimal filter computes forecast error covariances of a given atmospheric or oceanic model exactly, and hence data assimilation should be closely connected with predictability studies. This connection is described, and consequences drawn for currently active areas of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences, namely, mesoscale meteorology, medium and long-range forecasting, and upper-ocean dynamics.

Ghil, M.↗