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At least 955 records · Page 53

Coherent lidar airborne windshear sensor - Performance evaluation

As part of the NASA/FAA National Integrated Windshear Program, a measurable windshear hazard index has been defined that can be remotely sensed from an aircraft, to give the pilot information about the wind conditions along the flight path. A technology analysis and end-to-end performance simulation measuring signal-to-noise ratios and resulting wind velocity errors for competing coherent laser radar (lidar) systems have been carried out. The results show that a Ho:YAG lidar at a wavelength of 2.1 microns and a CO2 lidar at 10.6 microns can give the pilot information about the line-of-sight component of a windshear threat from his present position to a region extending 2-4 km in front of the aircraft. This constitutes a warning time of 20-40 s, even in conditions of moderately heavy precipitation.

Targ, Russell↗

Predicting Arrival Of Protons Emitted In Solar Flares

Visual Utility for Localization of Corona Accelerated Nuclei (VULCAN) computer program provides both advance warnings and insight for post-event analyses of effects of solar flares. Using measurements of peak fluxes, times of detection, flare location, solar wind velocities, and x-ray emissions from Sun, as electronically sent by NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration), VULCAN predicts resulting intensities of proton fluxes at various user-chosen points (spacecraft or planets) of solar system. Also predicts times of onset of fluxes of protons and peak values of fluxes.

Spagnuolo, John N., Jr.↗

Launch Vehicle Failure Dynamics and Abort Triggering Analysis

Launch vehicle ascent is a time of high risk for an on-board crew. There are many types of failures that can kill the crew if the crew is still on-board when the failure becomes catastrophic. For some failure scenarios, there is plenty of time for the crew to be warned and to depart, whereas in some there is insufficient time for the crew to escape. There is a large fraction of possible failures for which time is of the essence and a successful abort is possible if the detection and action happens quickly enough. This paper focuses on abort determination based primarily on data already available from the GN&C system. This work is the result of failure analysis efforts performed during the Ares I launch vehicle development program. Derivation of attitude and attitude rate abort triggers to ensure that abort occurs as quickly as possible when needed, but that false positives are avoided, forms a major portion of the paper. Some of the potential failure modes requiring use of these triggers are described, along with analysis used to determine the success rate of getting the crew off prior to vehicle demise.

Hanson, John M.↗

Prognostic model and failure mechanisms of steam generators in Sodium-Cooled fast reactors

This paper presents a prognostic model for sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) steam generators (SGs). Here, the purpose of the model is to estimate the remaining useful life of SFR SGs and thus to support the decision-making of autonomous control. SFR SGs are of great interest for plant integrity due to their harsh operation environment. They operate at higher temperatures and higher coolant-to-steam pressure differences than those of current light water reactors (LWR). The severity of the SFR SG failure consequences, which include water-sodium contact, is another reason. Understanding its failure mechanisms is important for the development of its prognostic model. Based on our literature review and physics-based analysis, we concluded that creep would be a dominant degradation mode of SFR SGs due to SFR’s high-temperature and high-pressure environment. Thus, creep is the focus of the prognostic model. Various other failure modes were also investigated in this study. The mechanical fatigue due to flow-induced vibration is usually observed in early developmental phases and would not be an important issue during normal operation. The thermal fatigue due to thermal stripping is occasionally observed in other components in SFRs but does not affect SG integrity. Pure water stress corrosive crack, fretting, and so on are commonly observed in LWR SGs but are significantly less important in SFR SGs because of the high temperatures, high pressure differences, and chemical properties of liquid sodium. Based on these investigations, a prognostic model focusing on creep failures was developed. It estimates the failure probability profile by sampling the Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) and temperature and associated uncertainties through Monte Carlo methods. Two case studies were presented. The first one demonstrated the model’s capability to calculate the failure probability for a new specimen within a given time. If the tube is working under temperatures of 500C ± 3 and pressures of 15.2 MPa, which leads to LMP of 20,100 ± 50, the failure probabilities within 50, 70, and 90 years are approximately 0.1 %, 3.2 %, and 17.5 %. The second demonstrated how adjusting the workload can help to protect the integrity of the component. For an old tube reaching 99 % of its lifespan, continuing to run at temperatures of 500C ± 3 and LMP of 20,100 ± 50 leads to a failure probability of about 29.0 % within a year. If the temperature is reduced by 5C, the failure probability can be reduced to 2.5 %, and, if the pressure is also reduced such that the LMP is increased by 100, the failure probability can further be reduced to 0.12 %.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure

Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Conflict Detection and Resolution for Future Air Transportation Management

With a Free Flight policy, the emphasis for air traffic control is shifting from active control to passive air traffic management with a policy of intervention by exception. Aircraft will be allowed to fly user preferred routes, as long as safety Alert Zones are not violated. If there is a potential conflict, two (or more) aircraft must be able to arrive at a solution for conflict resolution without controller intervention. Thus, decision aid tools are needed in Free Flight to detect and resolve conflicts, and several problems must be solved to develop such tools. In this report, we analyze and solve problems of proximity management, conflict detection, and conflict resolution under a Free Flight policy. For proximity management, we establish a system based on Delaunay Triangulations of aircraft at constant flight levels. Such a system provides a means for analyzing the neighbor relationships between aircraft and the nearby free space around air traffic which can be utilized later in conflict resolution. For conflict detection, we perform both 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional analyses based on the penetration of the Protected Airspace Zone. Both deterministic and non-deterministic analyses are performed. We investigate several types of conflict warnings including tactical warnings prior to penetrating the Protected Airspace Zone, methods based on the reachability overlap of both aircraft, and conflict probability maps to establish strategic Alert Zones around aircraft.

Krozel, Jimmy↗

Space safety and rescue 1979-1981: Worldwide disaster response, rescue and safety employing space-borne systems

Selected papers from the 1979, 1980, and 1981 IAA symposia on space safety and rescue and on worldwide disaster response, safety, and rescue employing spaceborne systems are presented. Available papers published elsewhere and those presented at the 1976, 1977, and 1978 symposia are presented in abstract form. Subjects discussed include man-made space debris, nuclear-waste disposal in space, space-station safety design, psychological training, the introduction of female crewmembers, analysis of the November 23, 1980 earthquake as a design basis for satellite emergency communication, disaster warning using the GOES satellite, and satellite communications for disaster relief operations. Three reviews of the application of space technology to emergency and disaster relief and prevention, given at other symposia in 1981, are presented in an appendix. No individual items are abstracted in this volume

Brown, J. W.↗

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision at the Shuttle Landing Facility. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. Both the SMG and the MLB are currently implementing the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software into their operations. The WRF EMS software allows users to employ both dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model- the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Strategies to Maximize Science Data Availability for the GOES-R Series of Satellites

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R Series (GOES-R) is the next generation of Untied States geostationary weather satellites. The GOES-R series significantly improves the detection and observation of environmental phenomena that directly affect public safety, protection of property and the economic health and prosperity of the United States and all countries within the western hemisphere. Given the real-time or ''now-casting'' nature of the GOES science gathering mission, any data outage or interruption can reduce warning times or scientific fidelity for critical weather data. GOES-R mission level requirements limit key performance product outages to a total of six hours per year to maximize science data availability. Lower level requirement only allow for 120 minutes of disruption between the spacecraft bus interface to the instruments. This requirement is met using both design features of the satellite and ground system, in addition to operational strategies.

Dudley, Renee↗

Updated Heliostorm Warning Mission: Enhancements Based on New Technology

The Heliostorm (also referred to as Geostorm) mission has been regarded as the best choice for the first application of solar sail technology. The objective of Heliostorm is to obtain data from an orbit station slightly displaced from the ecliptic at or nearer to the Sun than 0.98 AU, which places it twice as dose to the sun as Earth's natural L1 point at 0.993 AU. The maintenance of such an orbit location would require prohibitive amounts of propellants using chemical or electric propulsion systems; however, a solar sailcraft is ideally suited for this purpose because it relies solely on the propulsive force from photons for orbit maintenance. Heliostorm has been the subject of several mission studies over the past decade, with the most complete study conducted in 1999 in conjunction with a proposed New Millennium Program (NMP) Space Technology 5 (ST-5) flight opportunity. Recently, over a two and one-half year period dating from 2003 through 2005, NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Program (ISTP) matured solar sail technology from laboratory components to full systems, demonstrated in as relevant a space environment as could feasibly be simulated on the ground. Work under this program has yielded promising results for enhanced Heliostorm mission performance. This enhanced performance is achievable principally through reductions in the sail areal density. These reductions are realized through the use of lower linear mass density booms, a thinner sail membrane, and increased sail area. Advancements in sailcraft vehicle system design also offer potential mass reductions and hence improved performance. This paper will present the preliminary results of an updated Heliostorm mission design study including the enhancements incorporated during the design, development, analysis and testing of the system ground demonstrator.

Young, Roy M.↗

Updated Heliostorm Warning Mission: Enhancements Based on New Technology

The Heliostorm (also referred to as Geostorm) mission has been regarded as the best choice for the first application of solar sail technology. The objective of Heliostorm is to obtain data from an orbit station slightly displaced from the ecliptic at or nearer to the Sun than 0.98 AU, which places it twice as close to the sun as Earth's natural L1 point at 0.993 AU. The maintenance of such an orbit location would require prohibitive amounts of propellants using chemical or electric propulsion systems; however, a solar sailcraft is ideally suited for this purpose because it relies solely on the propulsive force from photons for orbit maintenance. Heliostorm has been the subject of several mission studies over the past decade, with the most complete study conducted in 1999 in conjunction with a proposed New Millennium Program (NMP) Space Technology 5 (ST-5) flight opportunity. Recently, over a two and one-half year period dating from 2003 through 2005, NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Program (ISTP) matured solar sail technology from laboratory components to full systems, demonstrated in as relevant a space environment as could feasibly be simulated on the ground. Work under this program has yielded promising results for enhanced Heliostorm mission performance. This enhanced performance is achievable principally through reductions in the sail areal density. These reductions are realized through the use of lower linear mass density booms, a thinner sail membrane, and increased sail area. Advancements in sailcraft vehicle system design also offer potential mass reductions and hence improved performance. This paper will present the preliminary results of an updated Heliostorm mission design study including the enhancements incorporated during the design, development, analysis and testing of the system ground demonstrator.

Young, Roy M.↗

Estimation of the Attenuation Caused by Power Line Towers on an E1-HEMP Induced Excitation

In a transmission line, the coupling between a line and a tower above ground is evaluated when the excitation is an E1 high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP). The model focuses on capturing correctly the effect of the coupling on the peak of the HEMP induced current that propagates along the line. This assessment is necessary to accurately estimate the effect of the excitation on the systems and components of the power grid. This analysis is a step towards a quantitative evaluation of HEMP excitation on the power grid. The results obtained indicate that the effect can be significant, especially for lines heights of 20 meters or more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electromagnetic Pulse – Resilient Electric Grid for National Security: Research Program Executive Summary

Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a three-year internally funded Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort to investigate the vulnerabilities and mitigations of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the electric power grid. The research was focused on understanding the vulnerabilities and potential mitigations for components and systems at the high voltage transmission level. Results from the research included a broad array of subtopics, covered in twenty-three reports and papers, and which are highlighted in this executive summary report. These subtopics include high altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) characterization, HEMP coupling analysis, system-wide effects, and mitigating technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution

Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Optical and Physical Methods for Mapping Flooding with Satellite Imagery

Flood and surface water mapping is becoming increasingly necessary, as extreme flooding events worldwide can damage crop yields and contribute to billions of dollars economic damages as well as social effects including fatalities and destroyed communities (Xaio et al. 2004; Kwak et al. 2015; Mueller et al. 2016).Utilizing earth observing satellite data to map standing water from space is indispensable to flood mapping for disaster response, mitigation, prevention, and warning (McFeeters 1996; Brakenridge and Anderson 2006). Since the early 1970s(Landsat, USGS 2013), researchers have been able to remotely sense surface processes such as extreme flood events to help offset some of these problems. Researchers have demonstrated countless methods and modifications of those methods to help increase knowledge of areas at risk and areas that are flooded using remote sensing data from optical and radar systems, as well as free publically available and costly commercial datasets.

satellite imagery↗

Public Health Data Applications Using the CDC Tracking Network: Augmenting Environmental Hazard Information with Lower-latency NASA Data

Exposure to environmental hazards is an important determinant of health, and the frequency and severity of exposures is expected to be impacted by climate change. Through a partnership with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is integrating timely observations and model data of priority environmental hazards into its publicly accessible Data Explorer (https://ephtracking.cdc.gov/DataExplorer/). Newly integrated datasets over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) include: daily 5-day forecasts of air quality based on the Goddard Earth Observing System Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF), daily historical (1980-present) concentrations of speciated PM2.5 based on the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily near real-time maps of flooding (MCDWD). Data integrated into the CDC Tracking Network are broadly intended to improve community health through action by informing both research and early warning activities, including (1) describing temporal and spatial trends in disease and potential environmental exposures, (2) identifying populations most affected, (3) generating hypotheses about associations between health and environmental exposures, and (4) developing, guiding, and assessing environmental public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing or eliminating health outcomes associated with environmental factors.

air quality↗

Applying Jlint to Space Exploration Software

Java is a very successful programming language which is also becoming widespread in embedded systems, where software correctness is critical. Jlint is a simple but highly efficient static analyzer that checks a Java program for several common errors, such as null pointer exceptions, and overflow errors. It also includes checks for multi-threading problems, such as deadlocks and data races. The case study described here shows the effectiveness of Jlint in find-false positives in the multi-threading warnings gives an insight into design patterns commonly used in multi-threaded code. The results show that a few analysis techniques are sufficient to avoid almost all false positives. These techniques include investigating all possible callers and a few code idioms. Verifying the correct application of these patterns is still crucial, because their correct usage is not trivial.

Artho, Cyrille↗