Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53

Organomercury Measurements from Sludge Batch 10 Simulant Studies

Researchers at the Savannah River National Laboratory have recently performed testing to evaluate the Sludge Batch 10 flowsheet using simulated sludge waste. In the course of this testing several samples were taken to determine the concentration of organomercury species resulting from sludge batch processing. These samples were submitted to the Savannah River National Laboratory Sensing and Metrology department quantitation using a mercury analyzer. The signal amplifier used to perform organomercury quantitation in the mercury analyzer experienced a malfunction in the course of analysis, leading to uncertainty of organomercury concentrations observed. Seventy-three organomercury samples from six project submissions to the Savannah River National Laboratory Sensing and Metrology department have been critically reviewed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

BayesMT: A Probabilistic Bayesian Framework for the Seismic Moment Tensor

Moment tensors (MTs) have long been used in earthquake and explosion source analysis, and there has been a renewed interest in how they can inform us about the seismic source, particularly in the geophysical monitoring community due to its application in event identification and yield analysis. However, parameter uncertainties in seismic MT inversion are rarely available. The inverse procedure often does not quantify MT model errors such as event location, data noise and Earth model that are essential for estimating solution robustness. To address this need, we propose to adopt the Bayesian probabilistic framework to incorporate uncertainties in MT inversions. In this study, we present the theoretical background of a probabilistic Bayesian framework for MT inversion accounting for model and measurements errors and illustrate the implementation of the method using a synthetic example.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Compressed Natural Gas Component Leak Frequency Estimation

The frequency of unintended releases in a compressed natural gas system is an important aspect of the system quantitative risk assessment. The frequencies for possible release scenarios, along with engineering models, are utilized to quantify the risks for compressed natural gas facilities. This report documents component leakage frequencies representative of compressed natural gas components that were estimated as a function of the normalized leak size. A Bayesian statistical method was used which results in leak frequency distributions for each component which represent variation and uncertainty in the leak frequency. The analysis shows that there is high uncertainty in the estimated leak frequencies due to sparsity in compressed natural gas data. These leak frequencies may still be useful in compressed natural gas system risk assessments, as long as this high uncertainty is acknowledged and considered appropriately.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Fission TPC cross section ratio results [Abstract]

The fission TPC was designed for precision fission cross section ratio measurements. The high-fidelity 3D particle tracking data is used to conduct a detailed analysis of the uncertainty contributions. In this contribution a brief overview of the instrument was presented. The results of the 238 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) cross section ratio measurement published in [Phys. Rev C 97, 034618 (2018)] were reviewed and the preliminary status of the 239 Pu(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) cross section ratio measurement was shown.

238U(n,f)/235U(n,f) cross section ratio↗

TPC Test-stands: An Overview & Future Prospects

The DUNE near detector design in Phase II will include a magnetized high-pressure gaseous-argon TPC (HPgTPC) surrounded by a calorimeter, called ND-GAr. ND-GAr is designed to provide fine-grained tracking, and due to its low detection threshold, it will be able to constrain one of the least-understood uncertainties for oscillation analysis: nuclear effects in argon at the neutrino interaction vertex. This talk will provide an overview of and an outlook about the ongoing R&D efforts in the context of the existing test stands that are evaluating the various readout system options for DUNE ND-GAr.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F Specification (Rev. 9)

This report is the revised (Revision 9) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F Specification (Revision 10)

This report is the revised (Revision 10) Task F specification for DECOVALEX-2023. Task F is a comparison of the models and methods used in deep geologic repository performance assessment. The task proposes to develop a reference case for a mined repository in a fractured crystalline host rock (Task F1) and a reference case for a mined repository in a salt formation (Task F2). Teams may choose to participate in the comparison for either or both reference cases. For each reference case, a common set of conceptual models and parameters describing features, events, and processes that impact performance will be given, and teams will be responsible for determining how best to implement and couple the models. The comparison will be conducted in stages, beginning with a comparison of key outputs of individual process models, followed by a comparison of a single deterministic simulation of the full reference case, and moving on to uncertainty propagation and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. This report provides background information, a summary of the proposed reference cases, and a staged plan for the analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC), Release FY25

The Delivery Environments Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is a broad project intended to analyze simplified problems experimentally and with modeling and simulation. The purpose of analyzing these simplified problems is to extend solution methods to more complex problems, as well as understand deficiencies and gaps in knowledge of methods currently used in more complex analyses. The TRUST project encompasses several smaller testbeds intended to isolate individual phenomena. The testbed under consideration in this report is the Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples testbed. In previous years, the purpose of this testbed was to quantify uncertainty of thermocouple sensors. To accomplish this, an aluminum plate was placed in a thermal chamber and subject to various types of thermal loading. Thermocouples were placed in various locations on the aluminum plate in various configurations (e.g., embedded in the plate, placed under Kapton tape), and an effort was made to quantify uncertainty in these measurements. Finite element simulations were performed to investigate how sensitive these measurements were to parameters such as the boundary conditions on the plate and material properties. However, a fundamental source of uncertainty in this analysis was the convective heat transfer from the plate. Convective heat transfer is a complex physical phenomenon comprised of a number of interacting sub-processes and is difficult to predict accurately a priori. As such, the main purpose of this testbed in FY25 was to better understand, both experimentally and numerically, the convective heat transfer from the plate. This is a highly applicable problem to several more complex problems, as convective heat transfer occurs in nearly all problems where a body is moving through air. Numerically, this required a two-step approach. First, the air flow in the thermal chamber was in vestigated using computational fluid dynamics. The commercial solver Fluent was used to perform these simulations. From these simulations, a heat transfer coefficient over the surface of the plate was calculated. This heat transfer was then used as boundary conditions for finite element heat transfer simulations within the plate, which were performed using Abaqus. Significant effort was devoted to automating the handoff between these two solvers. Experimentally, previous thermocouple results in the plate were used to validate the time-dependent thermal profiles produced from Abaqus. Further experimental efforts were performed both to help validate the Fluent simulations and to inform its boundary conditions. For example, hot-wire anemometers were used to measure the velocity in the chamber, which would be particularly useful in understanding the chamber inlet velocity. Thermocouple measurements were also taken in the chamber, instead of only on the plate, to serve as validation evidence for the Fluent simulations. Numerical results showed that the Fluent to Abaqus workflow matched previous plate thermocouple measurements well. This type of handoff is useful for more complex experiments, or those that are not able to be examined in as great of detail as this testbed, as it was performed without any experimental input. Experimental results, however, were more mixed. The anemometers proved unreliable, with inconsistent measurements across all anemometers, even at locations that were nearly identical. On the other hand, the thermocouples provided a relatively rich view of the temperature field in the chamber.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-resolution mapping of nitrogen oxide emissions in large US cities from TROPOMI retrievals of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide columns

Satellite-derived spatiotemporal patterns of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions can improve accuracy of emission inventories to better support air quality and climate research and policy studies. In this study, we develop a new method by coupling the chemical transport Model-Independent SATellite-derived Emission estimation Algorithm for Mixed-sources (MISATEAM) with a divergence method to map high-resolution NO x emissions across US cities using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) retrievals. The accuracy of the coupled method is validated through application to synthetic NO 2 observations from the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model, with a horizontal spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km for 33 large and mid-size US cities. Validation reveals excellent agreement between inferred and NU-WRF-provided emission magnitudes (R= 0.99, normalized mean bias, NMB = —0.01) and a consistent spatial pattern when comparing emissions for individual grid cells (R = 0.88 ± 0.06). We then develop a TROPOMI-based database reporting annual emissions for 39 US cities at a horizontal spatial resolution of 0.05° × 0.05° from 2018 to 2021. This database demonstrates a strong correlation (R= 0.90) with the National Emission Inventory (NEI) but reveals some bias (NMB = —0.24). There are noticeable differences in the spatial patterns of emissions in some cities. Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in TROPOMI-based emissions and potential misallocation of emissions and/or missing sources in bottom-up emission inventories both contribute to these differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics

Abstract. Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Reflected Target Optical Assessment System: Stage 1 Development Results

NREL has completed stage 1 development of an indoor optical measurement tool for fully assembled heliostats and single facets. This tool began as an indoor version of NREL’s outdoor Non-Intrusive Optical (NIO) measurement technique [1]. It uses similar techniques to other available tools (deflectometry, photogrammetry, etc.), but is designed to require very little infrastructure, labor, and time to set up and collect surface slope and canting measurements, making it a valuable tool for quality assurance and laboratory measurement of heliostat optics. It accomplishes this by using computer vision, photogrammetry, and multiple images stitched together to minimize the printed target size and required setup precision. This adaptable setup is useful for taking measurements at a variety of heliostat pointing angles, and for measuring fully assembled heliostats on the assembly line. In this paper, we describe the methodology behind the measurement system, present an initial analysis of its uncertainty and sensitivity, and compare it with established optical measurement systems.

Kesseli, Devon (ORCID:0000000193113036)↗

The energy balance of the nighttime thermosphere

Energy balance considerations for the thermosphere are affected by the uncertainty of the solar EUV flux. The problem is simplified by investigating only the nighttime thermosphere. Vapor trail measurements provide wind data at the sunset and sunrise terminators and near the polar cap boundary. Temperature and density profiles were obtained from incoherent scatter and Ogo 6 measurements. Based on the available data the energy losses are estimated to be 8 times 10 to the 10th W due to downward conduction at 120 km and 3 times 10 to the 10th W due to infrared radiation. The energy carried by the measured winds from the polar cap is found to be 4.6 times 10 to the 10th W and that transported across the mid- and low-latitude terminators, 7.6 to 11 times 10 to the 10th W. The greatest uncertainty in this analysis was in the estimates of the differences in the densities and temperatures in the lower thermosphere at the dawn and dusk terminators. Because of the large rotational velocity of the earth, small differences in these parameters correspond to large amounts of energy transported to the night hemisphere.

Glenar, D. A.↗

Statistical summaries of fatigue data for design purposes

Two methods are discussed for constructing a design curve on the safe side of fatigue data. Both the tolerance interval and equivalent prediction interval (EPI) concepts provide such a curve while accounting for both the distribution of the estimators in small samples and the data scatter. The EPI is also useful as a mechanism for providing necessary statistics on S-N data for a full reliability analysis which includes uncertainty in all fatigue design factors. Examples of statistical analyses of the general strain life relationship are presented. The tolerance limit and EPI techniques for defining a design curve are demonstrated. Examples usng WASPALOY B and RQC-100 data demonstrate that a reliability model could be constructed by considering the fatigue strength and fatigue ductility coefficients as two independent random variables. A technique given for establishing the fatigue strength for high cycle lives relies on an extrapolation technique and also accounts for "runners." A reliability model or design value can be specified.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

Color photometry of surface features on Ganymede and Callisto

Voyager imaging data demonstrate that the scattering properties ('phase curves') of all major terrain types on Ganymede and Callisto are not significantly wavelength dependent between 0.4 and 0.6 micron. The data suggest that the phase curves may be slightly steeper at the shorter wavelengths, consistent with the trend of telescopic observations near opposition. However, the differences are small and entirely within the uncertainties of the analysis. The result indicates that the phase integrals (0.8 for Ganymede and 0.6 for Callisto) derived by S. W. Squyres and J. Veverka (1981) from the abundant Voyager clear filter observations are reliable measures of the radiometric phase integrals. The corresponding values of the Bond albedo turn out to be 0.35 for Ganymede and 0.11 for Callisto.

Squyres, S. W.↗

Ionized magnesium in the planetary nebula NGC 7027

Observations of NGC 7027 are presented for six ionic lines: Mg(+3) (4.48 microns), Mg(+4) (5.61 microns), H(0) (4.05 and 7.46 microns), Ne(+5) (7.64 microns), and Ar(+5) (4.53 microns). The magnesium lines are consistent with the measurements of Russell, Soifer, and Willner (1977), and the hydrogen lines are consistent with the line strengths predicted from the radio flux. Upper limits were obtained for the neon and argon lines. The abundance of magnesium in the central part of the nebula is highly uncertain because the fine-structure collision strengths are poorly known. The strong gradient of magnesium abundance from the inner to the outer portions of the nebula derived by Pequignot and Stasinska (1980) could be an artifact of this uncertainty. A brief analysis of the effective stellar temperature derived from the magnesium line ratios is given.

Evans, N. J., II↗

The cosmic ray source composition

The cosmic ray source composition is shown to be related to the observed cosmic ray abundances by a set of linear equations which are valid for either ad hoc pathlength distributions or quantitative solutions to Galactic propagation models. These relations can be used to propagate abundances from the source or to the source, and the method described here allows a simple propagation of abundance uncertainties. A simultaneous analysis of B/C and (21-25)Fe indicates a need for truncation of the pathlength distribution.

Margolis, S. H.↗

A methodology for formulating a minimal uncertainty model for robust control system design and analysis

In the design and analysis of robust control systems for uncertain plants, the technique of formulating what is termed an M-delta model has become widely accepted and applied in the robust control literature. The M represents the transfer function matrix M(s) of the nominal system, and delta represents an uncertainty matrix acting on M(s). The uncertainty can arise from various sources, such as structured uncertainty from parameter variations or multiple unstructured uncertainties from unmodeled dynamics and other neglected phenomena. In general, delta is a block diagonal matrix, and for real parameter variations the diagonal elements are real. As stated in the literature, this structure can always be formed for any linear interconnection of inputs, outputs, transfer functions, parameter variations, and perturbations. However, very little of the literature addresses methods for obtaining this structure, and none of this literature addresses a general methodology for obtaining a minimal M-delta model for a wide class of uncertainty. Since have a delta matrix of minimum order would improve the efficiency of structured singular value (or multivariable stability margin) computations, a method of obtaining a minimal M-delta model would be useful. A generalized method of obtaining a minimal M-delta structure for systems with real parameter variations is given.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗