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At least 955 records · Page 53

Mixed‐Phase Clouds Over the Southern Ocean as Observed From Satellite and Surface Based Lidar and Radar

Abstract This study investigates the occurrence of mixed‐phase clouds (MPC, i.e., cloud layers containing both liquid and ice water at sub‐freezing temperatures) over the Southern Ocean (SO) using space‐ and surface‐based lidar and radar observations. The occurrence of supercooled clouds is dominated by geometrically thin (<1 km) layers that rarely contain ice. We diagnose layers that are geometrically thicker than 1 km to contain ice ~65% and ~4% of the time from below by surface remote sensors and from above by orbiting remote sensors, respectively. We examine the discrepancy in MPC occurrence statistics as diagnosed from below and above the cloud layer. From above, we find that MPC occurrence has a gradient associated with the Antarctic Polar Front near 55°S with a rare occurrence of satellite‐derived MPC south of that latitude. In contrast, surface sensors find ice in 33% of supercooled liquid water layers. We infer using observing system simulation experiments and data analysis that space‐based lidar cannot identify the occurrence of MPC except when secondary ice‐forming processes operate in convection that is, sufficiently strong to loft ice crystals to cloud tops. We conclude that the CALIPSO phase statistics of MPC have a severe low bias in MPC occurrence. Based on surface‐based statistics in the SO, we present a parameterization of the frequency of MPC as a function of cloud top temperature that differs substantially from that used in recent climate model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗

Multiscale simulation of spatially correlated microstructure via a latent space representation

When deformation gradients act on the scale of the microstructure of a part due to geometry and loading, spatial correlations and finite-size effects in simulation cells cannot be neglected. We propose a multiscale method that accounts for these effects using a variational autoencoder to encode the structure–property map of the stochastic volume elements making up the statistical description of the part. In this paradigm the autoencoder can be used to directly encode the microstructure or, alternatively, its latent space can be sampled to provide likely realizations. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method on three examples using the common additively manufactured material AlSi10Mg in: (a) a comparison with direct numerical simulation of the part microstructure, (b) a push forward of microstructural uncertainty to performance quantities of interest, and (c) a simulation of functional gradation of a part with stochastic microstructure.

Elastoplasticity↗

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Abstract Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Planck 2018 results XII. Galactic astrophysics using polarized dust emission

Observations of the submillimetre emission from Galactic dust, in both total intensity I and polarization, have received tremendous interest thanks to the Planck full-sky maps. In this paper we make use of such full-sky maps of dust polarized emission produced from the third public release of Planck data. As the basis for expanding on astrophysical studies of the polarized thermal emission from Galactic dust, we present full-sky maps of the dust polarization fraction p, polarization angle ψ, and dispersion function of polarization angles S . The joint distribution (one-point statistics) of p and NH confirms that the mean and maximum polarization fractions decrease with increasing NH. The uncertainty on the maximum observed polarization fraction, pmax = 22.0 -1.4 +3.5% at 353 GHz and 80' resolution, is dominated by the uncertainty on the Galactic emission zero level in total intensity, in particular towards diffuse lines of sight at high Galactic latitudes. Furthermore, the inverse behaviour between p and S found earlier is seen to be present at high latitudes. This follows the S ∝ p -1 relationship expected from models of the polarized sky (including numerical simulations of magnetohydrodynamical turbulence) that include effects from only the topology of the turbulent magnetic field, but otherwise have uniform alignment and dust properties. Thus, the statistical properties of p, ψ, and S for the most part reflect the structure of the Galactic magnetic field. Nevertheless, we search for potential signatures of varying grain alignment and dust properties. First, we analyse the product map S × p, looking for residual trends. While the polarization fraction p decreases by a factor of 3-4 between NH = 10 20 cm -2 and NH = 2 x 10 22 cm -2 , out of the Galactic plane, this product S × p only decreases by about 25%. Because S is independent of the grain alignment efficiency, this demonstrates that the systematic decrease in p with N H is determined mostly by the magnetic-field structure and not by a drop in grain alignment. This systematic trend is observed both in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) and in molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. Second, we look for a dependence of polarization properties on the dust temperature, as we would expect from the radiative alignment torque (RAT) theory. We find no systematic trend of S × p with the dust temperature T d , whether in the diffuse ISM or in the molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. In the diffuse ISM, lines of sight with high polarization fraction p and low polarization angle dispersion S tend, on the contrary, to have colder dust than lines of sight with low p and high S . We also compare the Planck thermal dust polarization with starlight polarization data in the visible at high Galactic latitudes. The agreement in polarization angles is remarkable, and is consistent with what we expect from the noise and the observed dispersion of polarization angles in the visible on the scale of the Planck beam. The two polarization emission-to-extinction ratios, R P/p and R S/V , which primarily characterize dust optical properties, have only a weak dependence on the column density, and converge towards the values previously determined for translucent lines of sight. We also determine an upper limit for the polarization fraction in extinction, p V /E(B - V), of 13% at high Galactic latitude, compatible with the polarization fraction p ≈ 20% observed at 353 GHz. Taken together, these results provide strong constraints for models of Galactic dust in diffuse gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Treating random sequential addition via the replica method

While many physical processes are non-equilibrium in nature, the theory and modeling of such phenomena lag behind theoretical treatments of equilibrium systems. The diversity of powerful theoretical tools available to describe equilibrium systems has inspired strategies that map non-equilibrium systems onto equivalent equilibrium analogs so that interrogation with standard statistical mechanical approaches is possible. In this work, we revisit the mapping from the non-equilibrium random sequential addition process onto an equilibrium multi-component mixture via the replica method, allowing for theoretical predictions of non-equilibrium structural quantities. We validate the above approach by comparing the theoretical predictions to numerical simulations of random sequential addition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of baryonic feedback on HSC-Y1 weak lensing non-Gaussian statistics

Baryonic feedback is a major systematic in weak lensing cosmology. Its most studied effect is the suppression of the lensing power spectrum, a second-order statistic, on small scales. Motivated by the growing interest in statistics beyond the second order, we investigate the effect of baryons on lensing non-Gaussian statistics and the resulting biases in the matter clustering amplitude S 8 = σ 8 Ω m / 0.3 . We focus on the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 1 (HSC-Y1) data which, with its high source number density, closely resembles those expected from the upcoming Euclid and Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time. We study four non-Gaussian statistics of convergence maps—peak counts, minimum counts, the probability distribution function, and the scattering transform coefficients—in addition to the usual power spectrum. We first estimate the biases in S 8 using mock observations built from the IllustrisTNG and BAHAMAS hydrodynamical simulations and theoretical models built from dark-matter-only simulations. We find up to 1 σ bias in S 8 when the smallest scales (2 arcmin) and the highest feedback level are considered. We then analyze the HSC-Y1 data and compare the S 8 obtained for each statistic with different smoothing scales or scale cuts. As we expect that baryons mostly affect the small scales, comparing the results obtained from including and excluding small scales can indicate the level of impact from baryons. With HSC data, we find only minor ( ≤ 0.5 σ ) differences in S 8 for all statistics, even when considering very small scales (2 arcmin). Our results suggest that the effect of baryons is insignificant at the level of HSC-Y1 down to 2 arcmin for all statistics examined here, or it is canceled by other scale-dependent systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simultaneous inference of equation of state parameters and unknown data errors with uncertainty quantification via hierarchical Bayesian posterior maximization

Equations of state (EOSs) are a key component in running hydrodynamic simulations as they relate the thermodynamic states for the material. The Davis reactants EOS is commonly used for modeling high explosives (HEs), and the EOS model parameters are calibrated using material specific data. The calibrations are often performed with uncertainty quantification via Bayesian inference to account for uncertainty in the data and generate ensembles of likely parameters. However, there are relatively few HE data sets to use for calibration and many are historical and lack error information. In this work, we simultaneously calibrate the Davis reactants EOS model parameters and unknown data error terms for the high explosive PBX 9501. To quantify the uncertainty in the models and the data, we use a Bayesian framework for the calibration and compute the hierarchical Bayesian posterior distribution with both a posteriori maximization approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. In general, we find that, given our assumptions, the two approaches result in similar calibrated parameters, posterior covariance matrices, and insights about the parameters but that the posterior maximization requires far less computational resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

Line Faults Classification Using Machine Learning on Three Phase Voltages Extracted from Large Dataset of PMU Measurements

An end-to-end supervised learning method is developed to classify transmission line faults in a twoyear field-recorded dataset that includes synchronized measurements of three-phase voltages recorded by 38 Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) sparsely located in in the US Western Grid interconnection. Statistical analysis is performed to extract features from this large dataset to train Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifiers initially. The training further leverages a simulated dataset from a synthetic grid with 12 PMUs to increase the number of faults of types infrequently seen in the field-recorded dataset. Training the classification models with the combined dataset resulted in a classification accuracy of 97.7%. This is a significant improvement over 89.7% to 92.5% accuracy obtained by relying on the field-recorded dataset alone.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Methods to Evaluate Subcolumn Profiles Based on Two-Point Diagnostics

In atmospheric models, stochastic generation of subgrid-scale profiles or “subcolumns” has been used for a variety of purposes. Such subcolumns can be generated from subgrid probability density functions (PDFs) at different vertical levels, when such PDFs are available. To do so, the generator needs to decide how strongly points should be correlated in the vertical, that is, how much the values should be overlapped. This is sometimes called “PDF overlap.” To assess vertical correlation in a simplified, observable setting, here the vertical correlation of vertical velocity in subcloud layers is examined. Doppler lidar is used to evaluate the vertical profiles of vertical velocity produced by a large-eddy simulation (LES) model and the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) subcolumn generator. In order to diagnose unrealistic features in subcolumn profiles, various statistical diagnostics are examined here, including the bivariate PDF of vertical velocity at two separated points (i.e., altitudes), the two-point velocity correlation, the integral correlation length, the PDF of two-point velocity differences, and the skewness and kurtosis of two-point velocity differences. The profiles produced by LES match lidar well, except that they are too smooth at small scales. The profiles produced by SILHS exhibit sharp jumps from updraft to downdraft that are not observed in the lidar data. To reduce the generation of these unrealistically sharp jumps, the SILHS sampling method is revised. The diagnostics confirm that the revised sampling method reduces the overprediction of sharp jumps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical data analysis of x-ray spectroscopy data enabled by neural network accelerated Bayesian inference

Bayesian inference applied to x-ray spectroscopy data analysis enables uncertainty quantification necessary to rigorously test theoretical models. However, when comparing to data, detailed atomic physics and radiation transfer calculations of x-ray emission from non-uniform plasma conditions are typically too slow to be performed in line with statistical sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, differences in transition energies and x-ray opacities often make direct comparisons between simulated and measured spectra unreliable. Here, we present a spectral decomposition method that allows for corrections to line positions and bound–bound opacities to best fit experimental data, with the goal of providing quantitative feedback to improve the underlying theoretical models and guide future experiments. In this work, we use a neural network (NN) surrogate model to replace spectral calculations of isobaric hot-spots created in Kr-doped implosions at the National Ignition Facility. The NN was trained on calculations of x-ray spectra using an isobaric hot-spot model post-processed with Cretin, a multi-species atomic kinetics and radiation code. The speedup provided by the NN model to generate x-ray emission spectra enables statistical analysis of parameterized models with sufficient detail to accurately represent the physical system and extract the plasma parameters of interest.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Evaluating MPI resource usage summary statistics

The Message Passing Interface (MPI) remains the dominant programming model for scientific applications running on today’s high-performance computing (HPC) systems. This dominance stems from MPI’s powerful semantics for inter-process communication that has enabled scientists to write applications for simulating important physical phenomena. MPI does not, however, specify how messages and synchronization should be carried out. Those details are typically dependent on low-level architecture details and the message characteristics of the application. Therefore, analyzing an application’s MPI resource usage is critical to tuning MPI’s performance on a particular platform. The result of this analysis is typically a discussion of the mean message sizes, queue search lengths and message arrival times for a workload or set of workloads. While a discussion of the arithmetic mean in MPI resource usage might be the most intuitive summary statistic, it is not always the most accurate in terms of representing the underlying data. In this paper, we analyze MPI resource usage for a number of key MPI workloads using an existing MPI trace collector and discrete-event simulator. Our analysis demonstrates that the average, while easy and efficient to calculate, is a useful metric for characterizing latency and bandwidth measurements, but may not be a good representation of application message sizes, match list search depths, or MPI inter-operation times. Additionally, we show that the median and mode are superior choices in many cases. We also observe that the arithmetic mean is not the best representation of central tendency for data that are drawn from distributions that are multi-modal or have heavy tails. Furthermore, the results and analysis of our work provide valuable guidance on how we, as a community, should discuss and analyze MPI resource usage data for scientific applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computing Thermodynamic Properties of Fluids Augmented by Nanoconfinement: Application to Pressurized Methane

Nanoconfined fluids exhibit remarkably different thermodynamic behavior compared to the bulk phase. These confinement effects render predictions of thermodynamic quantities of nanoconfined fluids challenging. In particular, confinement creates a spatially varying density profile near the wall that is primarily responsible for adsorption and capillary condensation behavior. Significant fluctuations in thermodynamic quantities, inherent in such nanoscale systems, coupled to strong fluid–wall interactions give rise to this near-wall density profile. Empirical models have been proposed to explain and model these effects, yet no first-principles based formulation has been developed. We present a statistical mechanics framework that embeds such a coupling to describe the effect of the fluid–wall interaction in amplifying the near-wall density behavior for compressible gases at elevated pressures such as pressurized methane in confinement. We show that the proposed theory predicts accurately the adsorbed layer thickness as obtained with small-angle neutron scattering measurements. Furthermore, the predictions of density under confinement from the proposed theory are shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental and atomistic simulations data for a range of temperatures for nanoconfined methane. While the framework is presented for evaluating the near-wall density, owing to its rigorous foundation in statistical mechanics, the proposed theory can also be generalized for predicting phase-transition and nonequilibrium transport of nanoconfined fluids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of Different Types of Entrances on Natural Ventilation in a Subway Station

In this study, the natural ventilation of a horizontal entrance of a typical subway station is investigated based on numerical simulations and experiments. In addition, a renormalization group k-e model (RNG k-e model) is applied to compute both the internal and external airflow patterns. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are validated based on the experimental results. Furthermore, a multiple variable regression model is employed to study how the different parameters affect the internal airflow rates of the subway station statistically, according to the experimental results. For this typical model, the parameter importance can be ranked as follows: (1) outdoor wind speed; (2) flow resistance of the subway station; (3) height of the wind catcher; and (4) length of the wind catcher. To understand the detailed pressure distribution of the horizontal entrance of the subway station with and without the wind catcher, 3D numerical simulations are conducted for different scenarios. We attempt to alter the size of the wind catcher (including the length and height) to study the characteristics of the pressure on the horizontal entrance of the subway station under outdoor wind-driven conditions. The pressure distributions for the entrance for different scenarios are compared and analyzed. Finally, the interactions between the internal and external flows are investigated by changing the resistance of the subway station. When the internal flow resistance is changed, the pressure coefficient (Cp) of the entrance is different as well. Hence, the Cp is not only affected by the outdoor environment, but is also influenced by the internal airflows.

CFD↗

Exploiting stochastic locality in lattice QCD: hadronic observables and their uncertainties

Abstract Because of the mass gap, lattice QCD simulations exhibit stochastic locality: distant regions of the lattice fluctuate independently. There is a long history of exploiting this to increase statistics by obtaining multiple spatially-separated samples from each gauge field; in the extreme case, we arrive at the master-field approach in which a single gauge field is used. Here we develop techniques for studying hadronic observables using position-space correlators, which are more localized, and compare with the standard time-momentum representation. We also adapt methods for estimating the variance of an observable from autocorrelated Monte Carlo samples to the case of correlated spatially-separated samples.

Physics↗

Structure of the thermal boundary layer in turbulent channel flows at transcritical conditions

Enhanced fluctuations, steep gradients, and intensified heat transfer are characteristics of wall-bounded turbulence at transcritical conditions. Although such conditions are prevalent in numerous technical applications, the structure of the thermal boundary layer under realistic density gradients and heating conditions remains poorly understood. Specifically, statistical descriptions of the temperature field in such flows are provided inconsistently using existing models. To address this issue, direct numerical simulations are performed by considering fully developed transcritical turbulent channel flow at pressure and temperature conditions that cause density changes of a factor of up to $O(20)$ between the hot and cold walls. As a consequence of the proximity of the Widom line to the hot wall, significant asymmetries are observed when comparing regions near the cold wall and near the hot wall. Previous transformations that attempt to collapse the near-wall mean temperature profiles among different cases to a single curve are examined. By addressing model deficiencies of these transformations, a formulation for an improved mean temperature transformation is proposed, with appropriate considerations for real fluid effects that involve strong variations in thermodynamic quantities. Our proposed transformation is shown to perform well in collapsing the slope of the logarithmic region to a single universal value with reduced uncertainty. Coupled with a predictive framework to estimate the non-universal shift parameter of the logarithmic region using a priori information, our transformation provides an analytic profile to model the near-wall mean temperature. These results thus provide a framework to guide the development of models for wall-bounded transcritical turbulence.

42 ENGINEERING↗