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At least 955 records · Page 53

PCMDI Metrics Package

The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis & Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is used to provide "quick-look" objective comparisons of Earth System Models (ESMs) with one another and available observations. The PMP provides a diverse suite of analysis utilities each of which produce summary statistics that gauge the consistency between climate model simulations and available observations. The primary application of the PMP is to evaluate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It can also be used to provide objective performance summaries during the model development process as well as selected research purposes.

Ullrich, PaulA [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗

Improving Protein–Ligand Interaction Modeling with cryo-EM Data, Templates, and Deep Learning in 2021 Ligand Model Challenge

Elucidating protein–ligand interaction is crucial for studying the function of proteins and compounds in an organism and critical for drug discovery and design. The problem of protein–ligand interaction is traditionally tackled by molecular docking and simulation, which is based on physical forces and statistical potentials and cannot effectively leverage cryo-EM data and existing protein structural information in the protein–ligand modeling process. In this work, we developed a deep learning bioinformatics pipeline (DeepProLigand) to predict protein–ligand interactions from cryo-EM density maps of proteins and ligands. DeepProLigand first uses a deep learning method to predict the structure of proteins from cryo-EM maps, which is averaged with a reference (template) structure of the proteins to produce a combined structure to add ligands. The ligands are then identified and added into the structure to generate a protein–ligand complex structure, which is further refined. The method based on the deep learning prediction and template-based modeling was blindly tested in the 2021 EMDataResource Ligand Challenge and was ranked first in fitting ligands to cryo-EM density maps. These results demonstrate that the deep learning bioinformatics approach is a promising direction for modeling protein–ligand interactions on cryo-EM data using prior structural information.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation study of communication link for Pioneer Saturn/Uranus atmospheric entry probe

A digital simulation is presented for a candidate modem in a modeled atmospheric scintillation environment with Doppler, Doppler rate, and signal attenuation typical of the radio link conditions for an outer planets atmospheric entry probe. The results indicate that the signal acquisition characteristics and the channel error rate are acceptable for the system requirements of the radio link. The simulation also outputs data for calculating other error statistics and a quantized symbol stream from which error correction decoding can be analyzed.

Hinrichs, C. A.↗

Rigid body mode pointing accuracy and stability criteria for an orbiting spacecraft

The effect of gravity gradient torque disturbances (which is an order of magnitude greater than the other torque disturbances and is sinusoidal with a frequency of two cycles per orbit) on pointing accuracy can be predicted very precisely. However, since the sensor noise such as star tracker and gyro inherent noise, is random, their effect can only be predicted statistically. The most common method used is computer simulation with appropriate sensor model and adjusting spacecraft control laws for minimum pointing error, as presented by Harris (1972). The general investigation outlined theoretically relates spacecraft controls to pointing accuracy in terms of the sensor noise power spectrum. The results are presented in graphical form.

Sandhu, G. S.↗

Radio physics of the sun; Proceedings of the Symposium, University of Maryland, College Park, Md., August 7-10, 1979

Papers are presented in the areas of the radio characteristics of the quiet sun and active regions, the centimeter, meter and decameter wavelength characteristics of solar bursts, space observations of low-frequency bursts, theoretical interpretations of solar active regions and bursts, joint radio, visual and X-ray observations of active regions and bursts, and the similarities of stellar radio characteristics to solar radio phenomena. Specific topics include the centimeter and millimeter wave characteristics of the quiet sun, radio fluctuations arising upon the transit of shock waves through the transition region, microwave, EUV and X-ray observations of active region loops and filaments, interferometric observations of 35-GHz radio bursts, emission mechanisms for radio bursts, the spatial structure of microwave bursts, observations of type III bursts, the statistics of type I bursts, and the numerical simulation of type III bursts. Attention is also given to the theory of type IV decimeter bursts, Voyager observations of type II and III bursts at kilometric wavelengths, radio and whitelight observations of coronal transients, and the possibility of obtaining radio observations of current sheets on the sun.

Kundu, M. R.↗

On the use of the OCM's quadratic objective function as a pilot rating metric

A correlation between the magnitude of the quadratic objective function from an optimal control pilot model and the subjective rating of the vehicle and task provides a valuable tool for handling qualities research and flight control synthesis. An analysis of simulation results for fourteen aircraft configurations flight tested earlier was conducted. A fixed set of pilot model parameters, are found for all cases in modeling the simulated regulation task. The agreement obtained between performance statistics is shown and a strong correlation was obtained between the cost function and rating.

Schmidt, D. K.↗

Advanced Space Shuttle simulation model

A non-recursive model (based on von Karman spectra) for atmospheric turbulence along the flight path of the shuttle orbiter was developed. It provides for simulation of instantaneous vertical and horizontal gusts at the vehicle center-of-gravity, and also for simulation of instantaneous gusts gradients. Based on this model the time series for both gusts and gust gradients were generated and stored on a series of magnetic tapes, entitled Shuttle Simulation Turbulence Tapes (SSTT). The time series are designed to represent atmospheric turbulence from ground level to an altitude of 120,000 meters. A description of the turbulence generation procedure is provided. The results of validating the simulated turbulence are described. Conclusions and recommendations are presented. One-dimensional von Karman spectra are tabulated, while a discussion of the minimum frequency simulated is provided. The results of spectral and statistical analyses of the SSTT are presented.

Tatom, F. B.↗

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index al is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 100 TeV, with a transition at kink energy Ek to a steeper spectral index a2>al above Ek. The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard↗

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters From Simulated Detector Responses With Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha (sub 1), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy E(sub k) to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗

Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗

Uncertainty Optimization Applied to the Monte Carlo Analysis of Planetary Entry Trajectories

Recently, strong evidence of liquid water under the surface of Mars and a meteorite that might contain ancient microbes have renewed interest in Mars exploration. With this renewed interest, NASA plans to send spacecraft to Mars approx. every 26 months. These future spacecraft will return higher-resolution images, make precision landings, engage in longer-ranging surface maneuvers, and even return Martian soil and rock samples to Earth. Future robotic missions and any human missions to Mars will require precise entries to ensure safe landings near science objective and pre-employed assets. Potential sources of water and other interesting geographic features are often located near hazards, such as within craters or along canyon walls. In order for more accurate landings to be made, spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere need to use lift to actively control the entry. This active guidance results in much smaller landing footprints. Planning for these missions will depend heavily on Monte Carlo analysis. Monte Carlo trajectory simulations have been used with a high degree of success in recent planetary exploration missions. These analyses ascertain the impact of off-nominal conditions during a flight and account for uncertainty. Uncertainties generally stem from limitations in manufacturing tolerances, measurement capabilities, analysis accuracies, and environmental unknowns. Thousands of off-nominal trajectories are simulated by randomly dispersing uncertainty variables and collecting statistics on forecast variables. The dependability of Monte Carlo forecasts, however, is limited by the accuracy and completeness of the assumed uncertainties. This is because Monte Carlo analysis is a forward driven problem; beginning with the input uncertainties and proceeding to the forecasts outputs. It lacks a mechanism to affect or alter the uncertainties based on the forecast results. If the results are unacceptable, the current practice is to use an iterative, trial-and-error approach to reconcile discrepancies. Therefore, an improvement to the Monte Carlo analysis is needed that will allow the problem to be worked in reverse. In this way, the largest allowable dispersions that achieve the required mission objectives can be determined quantitatively.

Olds, John↗

The Age of the Surface of Venus

Impact craters on Venus appear to be uniformly and randomly scattered over a once, but no longer, geologically active planet. To first approximation, the planet shows a single surface of a single age. Here we use Monte Carlo cratering simulations to estimate the age of the surface of Venus. The simulations are based on the present populations of Earth-approaching asteroids, Jupiter-family, Halley-family, and long period comets; they use standard Schmidt-Housen crater scalings in the gravity regime; and they describe interaction with the atmosphere using a semi-analytic 'pancake' model that is calibrated to detailed numerical simulations of impactors striking Venus. The lunar and terrestrial cratering records are also simulated. Both of these records suffer from poor statistics. The Moon has few young large craters and fewer still whose ages are known, and the record is biased because small craters tend to look old and large craters tend to look young. The craters of the Earth provide the only reliable ages, but these craters are few, eroded, of uncertain diameter, and statistically incomplete. Together the three cratering records can be inverted to constrain the flux of impacting bodies, crater diameters given impact parameters, and the calibration of atmospheric interactions. The surface age of Venus that results is relatively young. Alternatively, we can use our best estimates for these three input parameters to derive a best estimate for the age of the surface of Venus. Our tentative conclusions are that comets are unimportant, that the lunar and terrestrial crater records are both subject to strong biases, that there is no strong evidence for an increasing cratering flux in recent years, and that that the nominal age of the surface of Venus is about 600 Ma, although the uncertainty is about a factor of two. The chief difference between our estimate and earlier, somewhat younger estimates is that we find that the venusian atmosphere is less permeable to impacting bodies than supposed by earlier studies. An older surface increases the likelihood that Venus is dead.

Zahnle, K. J.↗

Automated System Checkout to Support Predictive Maintenance for the Reusable Launch Vehicle

The Propulsion Checkout and Control System (PCCS) is a predictive maintenance software system. The real-time checkout procedures and diagnostics are designed to detect components that need maintenance based on their condition, rather than using more conventional approaches such as scheduled or reliability centered maintenance. Predictive maintenance can reduce turn-around time and cost and increase safety as compared to conventional maintenance approaches. Real-time sensor validation, limit checking, statistical anomaly detection, and failure prediction based on simulation models are employed. Multi-signal models, useful for testability analysis during system design, are used during the operational phase to detect and isolate degraded or failed components. The TEAMS-RT real-time diagnostic engine was developed to utilize the multi-signal models by Qualtech Systems, Inc. Capability of predicting the maintenance condition was successfully demonstrated with a variety of data, from simulation to actual operation on the Integrated Propulsion Technology Demonstrator (IPTD) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Playback of IPTD valve actuations for feature recognition updates identified an otherwise undetectable Main Propulsion System 12 inch prevalve degradation. The algorithms were loaded into the Propulsion Checkout and Control System for further development and are the first known application of predictive Integrated Vehicle Health Management to an operational cryogenic testbed. The software performed successfully in real-time, meeting the required performance goal of 1 second cycle time.

Patterson-Hine, Ann↗

Modeling and Observational Study of the Global Atmospheric Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Anomalies

A combined observational and modeling study considers the linkage between Antarctic sea ice and the climate of non-local latitudes. The observational component is based upon analyses of monthly station observations and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis (NNR). The modeling component consists of simulations of the NCAR Community Climate Model versions 2 (CCM2) and 3 (CCM3) and the recent Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2). A convenient mechanism for communication between the Antarctic region (particularly the Ross Sea area) and the tropics and Northern Hemisphere is examined. The first evidence of this teleconnection came from CCM2 simulations performed during an earlier NASA supported project. Annual-cycle simulations with and without Antarctic sea ice show statistically- significant responses in monsoon precipitation over central and northern China during the month of September. The changes in monsoon precipitation are physically consistent with an intensified southwest Pacific (Northern Hemisphere) subtropical high in response to all Antarctic sea ice being removed and replaced with open water at -1.9"C. The intensified high is the northernmost component of three primary anomalies. The southernmost anomaly includes the Ross Sea area, where sea ice has been removed. An earlier study by Peng and Domros had also found a link between Antarctic sea ice and the East Asian monsoon circulation. The current project has helped to understand the teleconnection.

Bromwich, David H.↗

Overall Traveling-Wave-Tube Efficiency Improved By Optimized Multistage Depressed Collector Design

Depressed Collector Design The microwave traveling wave tube (TWT) is used widely for space communications and high-power airborne transmitting sources. One of the most important features in designing a TWT is overall efficiency. Yet, overall TWT efficiency is strongly dependent on the efficiency of the electron beam collector, particularly for high values of collector efficiency. For these reasons, the NASA Glenn Research Center developed an optimization algorithm based on simulated annealing to quickly design highly efficient multistage depressed collectors (MDC's). Simulated annealing is a strategy for solving highly nonlinear combinatorial optimization problems. Its major advantage over other methods is its ability to avoid becoming trapped in local minima. Simulated annealing is based on an analogy to statistical thermodynamics, specifically the physical process of annealing: heating a material to a temperature that permits many atomic rearrangements and then cooling it carefully and slowly, until it freezes into a strong, minimum-energy crystalline structure. This minimum energy crystal corresponds to the optimal solution of a mathematical optimization problem. The TWT used as a baseline for optimization was the 32-GHz, 10-W, helical TWT developed for the Cassini mission to Saturn. The method of collector analysis and design used was a 2-1/2-dimensional computational procedure that employs two types of codes, a large signal analysis code and an electron trajectory code. The large signal analysis code produces the spatial, energetic, and temporal distributions of the spent beam entering the MDC. An electron trajectory code uses the resultant data to perform the actual collector analysis. The MDC was optimized for maximum MDC efficiency and minimum final kinetic energy of all collected electrons (to reduce heat transfer). The preceding figure shows the geometric and electrical configuration of an optimized collector with an efficiency of 93.8 percent. The results show the improvement in collector efficiency from 89.7 to 93.8 percent, resulting in an increase of three overall efficiency points. In addition, the time to design a highly efficient MDC was reduced from a month to a few days. All work was done in-house at Glenn for the High Rate Data Delivery Program. Future plans include optimizing the MDC and TWT interaction circuit in tandem to further improve overall TWT efficiency.

Vaden, Karl R.↗

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Shih, Ann T.↗

On the Location of the gamma-Ray Outburst Emission in the BL Lacertae Object AO 0235 + 164 Through Observations Across the Electromagnetic Spectrum

We present observations of a major outburst at centimeter, millimeter, optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray wavelengths of the BL Lacertae object AO 0235+164. We analyze the timing of multi-waveband variations in the flux and linear polarization, as well as changes in Very Long Baseline Array images at A = 7 mm with approx.0.15 milliarcsec resolution. The association of the events at different wavebands is confirmed at high statistical significance by probability arguments and Monte Carlo simulations. A series of sharp peaks in optical linear polarization, as well as a pronounced maximum in the 7 mm polarization of a superluminal jet knot, indicate rapid fluctuations in the degree of ordering of the magnetic field. These results lead us to conclude that the outburst occurred in the jet both in the quasi-stationary "core" and in the superluminal knot, both parsecs downstream of the supermassive black hole. We interpret the outburst as a consequence of the propagation of a disturbance, elongated along the line of sight by light-travel time delays, that passes through a standing recollimation shock in the core and propagates down the jet to create the superluminal knot. The multi-wavelength light curves vary together on long timescales (months/ years), but the correspondence is poorer on shorter timescales. This, as well as the variability of the polarization and the dual location of the outburst, agrees with the expectations of a multi-zone emission model in which turbulence plays a major role in modulating the synchrotron and inverse Compton fluxes.

Agudo, Ivan↗