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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Measurement of Hubble constant: non-Gaussian errors in HST Key Project data

Assuming the Central Limit Theorem, experimental uncertainties in any data set are expected to follow the Gaussian distribution with zero mean. We propose an elegant method based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to test the above; and apply it on the measurement of Hubble constant which determines the expansion rate of the Universe. The measurements were made using Hubble Space Telescope. Our analysis shows that the uncertainties in the above measurement are non-Gaussian.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Error Modeling for Prompt Yield Estimation [Slides]

Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (MultiPEM) Toolbox provides a capability for post-detonation characterization focusing on yield estimation; Synthesize information from multiple sensor types; Leverage historical databases to inform statistical models; Allows for rapid or comprehensive analysis; Implemented in R code.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

Review of Onsite Temperature and Solar Forecasting Models to Enable Better Building Design and Operations

Advanced building controls and energy optimization for new constructions and retrofits rely on accurate weather data. Traditionally, most studies utilize airport weather information as the decision inputs. However, most buildings are in environments that are quite different than those at the airport miles away. Tree cover, adjacent buildings, and micro-climate effects caused by the larger surrounding area can all yield deviations in air temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, and wind that are large enough to influence design and operation decisions. In order to overcome this challenge, there are many prior studies on developing weather forecasting algorithms from micro-to meso-scales. Additionally, this paper reviews and complies knowledge on common weather data resources, data processing methodologies and forecasting techniques of weather information. Commonly used statistical, machine learning and physical-based models are discussed and presented as two major categories: deterministic forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Finally, evaluation metrics for forecasting errors are listed and discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detecting and tracking drift in quantum information processors

Abstract If quantum information processors are to fulfill their potential, the diverse errors that affect them must be understood and suppressed. But errors typically fluctuate over time, and the most widely used tools for characterizing them assume static error modes and rates. This mismatch can cause unheralded failures, misidentified error modes, and wasted experimental effort. Here, we demonstrate a spectral analysis technique for resolving time dependence in quantum processors. Our method is fast, simple, and statistically sound. It can be applied to time-series data from any quantum processor experiment. We use data from simulations and trapped-ion qubit experiments to show how our method can resolve time dependence when applied to popular characterization protocols, including randomized benchmarking, gate set tomography, and Ramsey spectroscopy. In the experiments, we detect instability and localize its source, implement drift control techniques to compensate for this instability, and then demonstrate that the instability has been suppressed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

THE GALEX TIME DOMAIN SURVEY. I. SELECTION AND CLASSIFICATION OF OVER A THOUSAND ULTRAVIOLET VARIABLE SOURCES

We present the selection and classification of over a thousand ultraviolet (UV) variable sources discovered in {approx}40 deg{sup 2} of GALEX Time Domain Survey (TDS) NUV images observed with a cadence of 2 days and a baseline of observations of {approx}3 years. The GALEX TDS fields were designed to be in spatial and temporal coordination with the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, which provides deep optical imaging and simultaneous optical transient detections via image differencing. We characterize the GALEX photometric errors empirically as a function of mean magnitude, and select sources that vary at the 5{sigma} level in at least one epoch. We measure the statistical properties of the UV variability, including the structure function on timescales of days and years. We report classifications for the GALEX TDS sample using a combination of optical host colors and morphology, UV light curve characteristics, and matches to archival X-ray, and spectroscopy catalogs. We classify 62% of the sources as active galaxies (358 quasars and 305 active galactic nuclei), and 10% as variable stars (including 37 RR Lyrae, 53 M dwarf flare stars, and 2 cataclysmic variables). We detect a large-amplitude tail in the UV variability distribution for M-dwarf flare stars and RR Lyrae, reaching up to |{Delta}m| = 4.6 mag and 2.9 mag, respectively. The mean amplitude of the structure function for quasars on year timescales is five times larger than observed at optical wavelengths. The remaining unclassified sources include UV-bright extragalactic transients, two of which have been spectroscopically confirmed to be a young core-collapse supernova and a flare from the tidal disruption of a star by dormant supermassive black hole. We calculate a surface density for variable sources in the UV with NUV < 23 mag and |{Delta}m| > 0.2 mag of {approx}8.0, 7.7, and 1.8 deg{sup -2} for quasars, active galactic nuclei, and RR Lyrae stars, respectively. We also calculate a surface density rate in the UV for transient sources, using the effective survey time at the cadence appropriate to each class, of {approx}15 and 52 deg{sup -2} yr{sup -1} for M dwarfs and extragalactic transients, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Atmospheric Neutrino Oscillation Parameters Using Convolutional Neural Networks with 9.3 Years of Data in IceCube DeepCore

The DeepCore subdetector of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory provides access to neutrinos with energies above approximately 5 GeV. Data taken between 2012 and 2021 (3387 days) are utilized for an atmospheric ν μ disappearance analysis that studied 150 257 neutrino-candidate events with reconstructed energies between 5 and 100 GeV. An advanced reconstruction based on a convolutional neural network is applied, providing increased signal efficiency and background suppression, resulting in a measurement with both significantly increased statistics compared to previous DeepCore oscillation results and high neutrino purity. For the normal neutrino mass ordering, the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters and their 1 σ errors are measured to be Δ m 32 2 = 2.40 − 0.04 + 0.05 × 10 − 3 eV 2 and sin 2 θ 23 = 0.54 − 0.03 + 0.04 . The results are the most precise to date using atmospheric neutrinos, and are compatible with measurements from other neutrino detectors including long-baseline accelerator experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Abbasi, R.↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-202-06: A Method for Characterizing and Validating Dynamic Lung Density Change During Quiet Respiration

Purpose: To obtain a functional relationship that calibrates the lung tissue density change under free breathing conditions through correlating Jacobian values to the Hounsfield units. Methods: Free-breathing lung computed tomography images were acquired using a fast helical CT protocol, where 25 scans were acquired per patient. Using a state-of-the-art deformable registration algorithm, a set of the deformation vector fields (DVF) was generated to provide spatial mapping from the reference image geometry to the other free-breathing scans. These DVFs were used to generate Jacobian maps, which estimate voxelwise volume change. Subsequently, the set of 25 corresponding Jacobian and voxel intensity in Hounsfield units (HU) were collected and linear regression was performed based on the mass conservation relationship to correlate the volume change to density change. Based on the resulting fitting coefficients, the tissues were classified into parenchymal (Type I), vascular (Type II), and soft tissue (Type III) types. These coefficients modeled the voxelwise density variation during quiet breathing. The accuracy of the proposed method was assessed using mean absolute difference in HU between the CT scan intensities and the model predicted values. In addition, validation experiments employing a leave-five-out method were performed to evaluate the model accuracy. Results: The computed mean model errors were 23.30±9.54 HU, 29.31±10.67 HU, and 35.56±20.56 HU, respectively, for regions I, II, and III, respectively. The cross validation experiments averaged over 100 trials had mean errors of 30.02 ± 1.67 HU over the entire lung. These mean values were comparable with the estimated CT image background noise. Conclusion: The reported validation experiment statistics confirmed the lung density modeling during free breathing. The proposed technique was general and could be applied to a wide range of problem scenarios where accurate dynamic lung density information is needed. This work was supported in part by NIH R01 CA0096679.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Non-abelian fractional quantum hall effect for fault-resistant topological quantum computation.

Topological quantum computation (TQC) has emerged as one of the most promising approaches to quantum computation. Under this approach, the topological properties of a non-Abelian quantum system, which are insensitive to local perturbations, are utilized to process and transport quantum information. The encoded information can be protected and rendered immune from nearly all environmental decoherence processes without additional error-correction. It is believed that the low energy excitations of the so-called =5/2 fractional quantum Hall (FQH) state may obey non-Abelian statistics. Our goal is to explore this novel FQH state and to understand and create a scientific foundation of this quantum matter state for the emerging TQC technology. We present in this report the results from a coherent study that focused on obtaining a knowledge base of the physics that underpins TQC. We first present the results of bulk transport properties, including the nature of disorder on the 5/2 state and spin transitions in the second Landau level. We then describe the development and application of edge tunneling techniques to quantify and understand the quasiparticle physics of the 5/2 state.

Pan, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2016

The SINFONI Black Hole Survey: The black hole fundamental plane revisited and the paths of (co)evolution of supermassive black holes and bulges

We investigate the correlations between the black hole (BH) mass M{sub BH}, the velocity dispersion σ, the bulge mass M{sub Bu}, the bulge average spherical density ρ{sub h}, and its spherical half-mass radius r{sub h}, constructing a database of 97 galaxies (31 core ellipticals, 17 power-law ellipticals, 30 classical bulges, and 19 pseudobulges) by joining 72 galaxies from the literature to 25 galaxies observed during our recent SINFONI BH survey. For the first time we discuss the full error covariance matrix. We analyze the well-known M{sub BH}–σ and M{sub BH}–M{sub Bu} relations and establish the existence of statistically significant correlations between M{sub Bu} and r{sub h} and anticorrelations between M{sub Bu} and ρ{sub h}. We establish five significant bivariate correlations (M{sub BH}–σ–ρ{sub h}, M{sub BH}–σ–r{sub h}, M{sub BH}–M{sub Bu}–σ, M{sub BH}–M{sub Bu}–ρ{sub h}, M{sub BH}–M{sub Bu}–r{sub h}) that predict M{sub BH} of 77 core and power-law ellipticals and classical bulges with measured and intrinsic scatter as small as ≈0.36 dex and ≈0.33 dex, respectively, or 0.26 dex when the subsample of 45 galaxies defined by Kormendy and Ho is considered. In contrast, pseudobulges have systematically lower M{sub BH} but approach the predictions of all of the above relations at spherical densities ρ{sub h}⩾10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙} kpc{sup −3} or scale lengths r{sub h}⩽1 kpc. These findings fit in a scenario of coevolution of BH and classical-bulge masses, where core ellipticals are the product of dry mergers of power-law bulges and power-law ellipticals and bulges the result of (early) gas-rich mergers and of disk galaxies. In contrast, the (secular) growth of BHs is decoupled from the growth of their pseudobulge hosts, except when (gas) densities are high enough to trigger the feedback mechanism responsible for the existence of the correlations between M{sub BH} and galaxy structural parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Kaon semileptonic decays with $N_f=2+1+1$ HISQ fermions and physical light-quark masses

We discuss the reduction of errors in the calculation of the form factor $f_+^{K \pi}(0)$ with HISQ fermions on the $N_f=2+1+1$ MILC configurations from increased statistics on some key ensembles, new data on ensembles with lattice spacings down to 0.042 fm and the study of finite-volume effects within staggered ChPT. We also study the implications for the unitarity of the CKM matrix in the first row and for current tensions with leptonic determinations of $\vert V_{us}\vert$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

RGB wavefront sensor for turbulence mitigation

A compact adaptive optics system for long-range horizontal paths imaging that improves degraded images. The system uses a filter that corresponds to the three colors in a typical color detector element, one or more optic elements, a deformable mirror, and a detector. Focus errors, due to turbulence, in the image recorded by the detector element show up as image shifts in the three distinct color images. The shifts and statistics of these shifts between these simultaneous images are used to create control signals for the deformable mirror resulting in a compact adaptive optic system for horizontal paths without need for a point source located at the distance scene being imaged. Analysis of the relative pixel shifts in various regions of the image provides third order statistics revealing tip/tilt and additional Zernikes modes that are used to control a deformable mirror without the need for a guide star/point-source.

O'Neill, Mary Dominique↗
DOE OSTI2015

A NEW METHOD FOR DERIVING THE STELLAR BIRTH FUNCTION OF RESOLVED STELLAR POPULATIONS

We present a new method for deriving the stellar birth function (SBF) of resolved stellar populations. The SBF (stars born per unit mass, time, and metallicity) is the combination of the initial mass function (IMF), the star formation history (SFH), and the metallicity distribution function (MDF). The framework of our analysis is that of Poisson Point Processes (PPPs), a class of statistical models suitable when dealing with points (stars) in a multidimensional space (the measurement space of multiple photometric bands). The theory of PPPs easily accommodates the modeling of measurement errors as well as that of incompleteness. Our method avoids binning stars in the color–magnitude diagram and uses the whole likelihood function for each data point; combining the individual likelihoods allows the computation of the posterior probability for the population's SBF. Within the proposed framework it is possible to include nuisance parameters, such as distance and extinction, by specifying their prior distributions and marginalizing over them. The aim of this paper is to assess the validity of this new approach under a range of assumptions, using only simulated data. Forthcoming work will show applications to real data. Although it has a broad scope of possible applications, we have developed this method to study multi-band Hubble Space Telescope observations of the Milky Way Bulge. Therefore we will focus on simulations with characteristics similar to those of the Galactic Bulge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

GAMMA-RAY EMISSION FROM PSR J0007+7303 USING SEVEN YEARS OF FERMI LARGE AREA TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

Based on more than seven years of Fermi Large Area Telescope Pass 8 data, we report on a detailed analysis of the bright gamma-ray pulsar (PSR) J0007+7303. We confirm that PSR J0007+7303 is significantly detected as a point source also during the off-peak phases with a test statistic value of 262 (∼16 σ ). In the description of the off-peak spectrum of PSR J0007+7303, a power law with an exponential cutoff at 2.7 ± 1.2 ± 1.3 GeV (the first/second uncertainties correspond to statistical/systematic errors) is preferred over a single power law at a level of 3.5 σ . The possible existence of a cutoff hints at a magnetospheric origin of the emission. In addition, no extended gamma-ray emission is detected that is compatible with either the supernova remnant (CTA 1) or the very high-energy (>100 GeV) pulsar wind nebula. A flux upper limit of 6.5 × 10{sup −12} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} in the energy range 10–300 GeV is reported, for an extended source assuming the morphology of the VERITAS detection. During on-peak phases, a sub-exponential cutoff is significantly preferred (∼11 σ ) for representing the spectral energy distribution, in both the phase-averaged and phase-resolved spectra. Three glitches are detected during the observation period and we found no flux variability at the time of the glitches or in the long-term behavior. We also report the discovery of a previously unknown gamma-ray source in the vicinity of PSR J0007+7303, Fermi J0020+7328, which we associate with the z = 1.781 quasar S5 0016+73. A concurrent analysis of this source is needed to correctly characterize the behavior of CTA 1 and it is also presented in the paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales: fine-scale recovery, error estimation, and coarse-scale adaptivity

There are several engineering applications in which the assumptions of homogenization and scale separation may be violated, in particular, for metallic structures constructed through additive manufacturing. Instead of resorting to direct numerical simulation of the macroscale system with an embedded fine scale, an alternative approach is to use an approximate macroscale constitutive model, but then estimate the model-form error using a posteriori error estimation techniques and subsequently adapt the macroscale model to reduce the error for a given boundary value problem and quantity of interest. Here, we investigate this approach to multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales using the example of an additively manufactured metallic structure consisting of a polycrystalline microstructure that is neither periodic nor statistically homogeneous. As a first step to the general nonlinear case, we focus here on linear elasticity in which each grain within the polycrystal is linear elastic but anisotropic.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field-scale dynamics of planting dates in the US Corn Belt from 2000 to 2020

Crop planting dates are a dynamic feature of agricultural systems that respond to short- and long-term climate signals, crop and cultivar selection, and technology changes. Planting date records are essential for yield gap analyses, accurate crop modeling, and tracking farmer adaptations to weather and climate change. Although planting dates have high variation at local scales due to heterogeneity in farm resources and decision-making, available long-term data on planting dates is largely restricted to aggregated regional statistics or, at best, satellite-derived datasets with limited spatiotemporal extent and at resolutions unable to distinguish individual fields (> 250 m). Here, we generated retrospective annual field-scale (30 m) planting date maps for both maize and soybeans spanning 2000-2020 across a 12 state region in the United States Corn Belt based on Landsat satellite data and a large ground sample of over 28,000 maize and soybean fields. Using training data from 2015-2020 for model selection, we found that planting date predictions improved with harmonic regression of Landsat data and additional annual weather covariates. The preferred random forests model approximately doubled performance compared to a null model based on state median planting dates, capturing 47% of field-level variation for maize (mean absolute error, MAE = 7.4 days) and 44% for soybeans (MAE = 7.5 days) against held-out ground truth test data for 2008-2014. We also evaluated the full 2000-2020 dataset with state agricultural statistics, finding strong agreement with median planting dates for maize (R 2 = 0.76, MAE = 4.4 days) and slightly lower agreement for soybeans (R 2 = 0.65, MAE = 5.4 days) when aggregated to the state level. We then used this new dataset to analyze environmental determinants of planting dates at a finer-scale than previously possible, controlling for unobserved variation at the sub-state district level. We found that during 2000-2020, each standard deviation increase in rainfall delayed planting by ~ 2.5 days, and fields with higher soil productivity ratings tended to be planted earlier. We did not find meaningful trends over the last two decades in planting dates for maize or soybeans, in contrast to trends towards earlier planting dates late last century and predicted for this period in climate adaptation studies. We hypothesize increases in early season rainfall may have inhibited these shifts towards earlier planting. Remotely sensed planting dates will be a useful tool for yield gap analyses, crop simulation modeling, and ongoing assessment of climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

To have value, comparisons of high-throughput phenotyping methods need statistical tests of bias and variance

The gap between genomics and phenomics is narrowing. The rate at which it is narrowing, however, is being slowed by improper statistical comparison of methods. Quantification using Pearson’s correlation coefficient ( r ) is commonly used to assess method quality, but it is an often misleading statistic for this purpose as it is unable to provide information about the relative quality of two methods. Using r can both erroneously discount methods that are inherently more precise and validate methods that are less accurate. These errors occur because of logical flaws inherent in the use of r when comparing methods, not as a problem of limited sample size or the unavoidable possibility of a type I error. A popular alternative to using r is to measure the limits of agreement (LOA). However both r and LOA fail to identify which instrument is more or less variable than the other and can lead to incorrect conclusions about method quality. An alternative approach, comparing variances of methods, requires repeated measurements of the same subject, but avoids incorrect conclusions. Variance comparison is arguably the most important component of method validation and, thus, when repeated measurements are possible, variance comparison provides considerable value to these studies. Statistical tests to compare variances presented here are well established, easy to interpret and ubiquitously available. The widespread use of r has potentially led to numerous incorrect conclusions about method quality, hampering development, and the approach described here would be useful to advance high throughput phenotyping methods but can also extend into any branch of science. The adoption of the statistical techniques outlined in this paper will help speed the adoption of new high throughput phenotyping techniques by indicating when one should reject a new method, outright replace an old method or conditionally use a new method.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗