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At least 955 records · Page 53

Gas Transfer Across Air‐Water Interfaces in Inland Waters: From Micro‐Eddies to Super‐Statistics

In inland water covering lakes, reservoirs, and ponds, the gas exchange of slightly soluble gases such as carbon dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, methane, or oxygen across a clean and nearly flat air‐water interface is routinely described using a water‐side mean gas transfer velocity $\overline{k_{L}}$, where overline indicates time or ensemble averaging. The micro‐eddy surface renewal model predicts $\overline{k_{L}}$ = α o Sc -1/2 ($v\bar{ϵ}$) 1/4 , where Sc is the molecular Schmidt number, $v$ is the water kinematic viscosity, and $\bar{ϵ}$ is the waterside mean turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate at or near the interface. While α o = 0.39 - 0.46 has been reported across a number of data sets, others report large scatter or variability around this value range. It is shown here that this scatter can be partly explained by high temporal variability in instantaneous ϵ around $\bar{ϵ}$, a mechanism that was not previously considered. As the coefficient of variation (CV e ) in ϵ increases, α o must be adjusted by a multiplier (1 = CV e 2 ) -3/32 that was derived from a log‐normal model for the probability density function of ϵ. Reported variations in α o with a macro‐scale Reynolds number can also be partly attributed to intermittency effects in ϵ. Such intermittency is characterized by the long‐range (i.e., power‐law decay) spatial auto‐correlation function of ϵ. That α o varies with a macro‐scale Reynolds number does not necessarily violate the micro‐eddy model. Instead, it points to a coordination between the macro‐ and micro‐scales arising from the transfer of energy across scales in the energy cascade.

Batchelor scale↗

Remote sensing from unoccupied aerial systems: Opportunities to enhance Arctic plant ecology in a changing climate

The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than any other biome on Earth, resulting in widespread changes in vegetation composition, structure, and function that have important feedbacks to the global climate system. The heterogeneous nature of arctic landscapes creates challenges for monitoring and improving understanding of these ecosystems, as current efforts typically rely on ground, airborne, or satellite-based observations that are limited in space, time, or pixel resolution. The use of remote sensing instruments on small Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UASs) has emerged as an important tool to bridge the gap between detailed, but spatially limited ground-level measurements, and lower resolution, but spatially extensive high-altitude airborne and satellite observations. UASs allow researchers to view, describe and quantify vegetation dynamics at fine spatial scales (1-10 cm) over areas much larger than typical field plots. UASs can be deployed with a high degree of temporal flexibility, enabling observation across diurnal, seasonal, and annual timescales. In this work, we review how established and emerging UAS remote sensing technologies can enhance arctic plant ecological research by quantifying fine-scale vegetation patterns and processes, and by enhancing the ability to link ground-based measurements with broader-scale information obtained from airborne and satellite platforms. Synthesis: Improved ecological understanding and model representation of arctic vegetation is needed to forecast the fate of the Arctic in a rapidly changing climate. Observations from UASs provide an approach to address this need, however, the use of this technology in the Arctic currently remains limited. Here we share recommendations to better enable and encourage the use of UASs to improve the description, scaling, and model representation of arctic vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detection and attribution of long-term and fine-scale changes in spring phenology over urban areas: A case study in New York State

Spring phenology plays an essential role in climate change, terrestrial ecosystem, and public health. Field-based monitoring and understanding of changes in spring phenology for long periods and in large regions are challenging due to the limited in-site observations. Space-based remotely sensed observations offer great potentials for monitoring decadal spring phenology changes from regional to global scales. However, the coarse-scale remotely sensed observations are insufficient to capture fine-scale spring phenology dynamics, especially in urban areas, and this makes it challenging for understanding the combined effects of climate change and urbanization on spring phenology. We derived the start of phenology season (SOS) in New York State using 30 m Landsat observations from 1990 to 2015 to understand the impact of the environment and urbanization on SOS. The results show that SOS for different years reveals heterogeneous spatial distribution. Most regions of New York State have been experiencing significant spring phenology changes in form of earlier onset of vegetation greening, ranging from 0.2 to 0.6 day/year during 1990 to 2015, and this trend varies slightly with latitudes and urbanization levels. Further, spatial correlation analysis shows that the increase in temperature and urbanization could both promote the advancement of SOS. However, the effect of urbanization (partial correlation coefficient (R) ranges from −0.289 to −0.542) on SOS is greater than the effect of temperature (R ranges from 0.006 to −0.192). The study generates a high spatio-temporal resolution spring phenology dataset for ecological, environmental and public health studies, especially in urban areas, and reveals the importance of better accounting for the urbanization effects when quantifying the SOS dynamics in phenology models.

Landsat↗

Microwave Heating-Induced Temperature Gradients in Liquid–Liquid Biphasic Systems

Microwaves (MWs) can enable the electrification and intensification of chemical manufacturing. They have been applied to various unit separations, such as drying, distillation, and extraction, entailing gas–liquid and solid–liquid systems. However, a limited quantitative understanding of MW-heated liquid–liquid biphasic systems related to extraction exists. This work measures the temporal and spatial temperature difference between an aqueous and an organic phase in batch and continuous microfluidic modes. We demonstrate permanent temperature differences between phases over 35 °C and spatiotemporal periodic and quasiperiodic oscillations modulated by the flow patterns. The temperature differences are primarily driven by the faster absorption rate of MW irradiation by the aqueous phase versus the slower heat transfer from the aqueous phase to the organic phase. These are amplified by low specific interfacial area and modifications of the electromagnetic field. We employ a multiphysics model to predict the temperature difference in a batch system. The model is in good agreement with the experiments. We demonstrate a strong effect of input power, dielectric properties of organic solvents, the volume of solvents, and the volume ratio between phases on the temperature difference. A simple analytical model describes the temperature difference and provides design principles. Furthermore, the combined approach offers new insights into the design and optimization of the MW-heated biphasic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions

Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Enabled Sensor Fusion for In-Situ Defect Detection in Laser Powder Bed Fusion

Laser Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) Additive Manufacturing (AM) is among the metal 3D printing technologies most broadly adopted by the manufacturing industry. The current industry qualification paradigm for critical-application L-PBF parts relies heavily on expensive non-destructive inspection techniques such as X-Ray Computed Tomography (XCT), which significantly limits the use-cases of L-PBF. In situ monitoring of the process promises a less expensive alternative to ex situ testing, but existing sensor technologies and data analysis techniques struggle to detect sub-surface flaws (e.g., porosity and cracking) on production-scale L-PBF printers. RTX Technologies Research Center (RTRC) has licensed ORNL’s Peregrine software package – a printer- and camera-agnostic data analytics tool designed specifically for detecting process anomalies using in situ data collected during powder bed printing. The goal of this project was to feed temporally rich, multi-modal sensor data, including visible light, integrated near infrared (NIR), and spatially mapped co-axial melt pool thermal emission data into Peregrine to enable detection of subsurface flaws. XCT data was used as ground truth training data to allow Peregrine’s deep learning algorithms to recognize anomalies in these complex data streams in both test artifacts and industrially relevant geometries. Completion of this program has seen the successful implementation of multi-modal, multi-layer sensor data footprints for training of machine learning models in Peregrine. Flaws detected in XCT data have been successfully detected directly from this in situ data footprint, and initial analyses of the in situ probability-of-detection has been conducted, showing performance levels commensurate with traditional non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods. The in situ monitoring methodology was then applied to an industrially relevant component that was using post-build NDE, highlighting the utility of the proposed method for hard-to-inspect AM components. As a direct result of this program, two journal manuscripts [1], [2] have been published in Additive Manufacturing, with additional manuscripts planned following program completion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

3D-Reconstruction of Tau Neutrinos in LArTPC Detectors

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation neutrino experiment currently under construction. DUNE will consist of two high-resolution neutrino interaction imaging detectors exposed to the world’s most intense neutrino beam, with the Near Detector at Fermilab and the Far Detector 1,300 km away in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in South Dakota, US. The high statistics and excellent resolution capabilities of DUNE's $^{40}$Ar detector will allow us to make precision studies of oscillation parameters capable of searching for CP violation in the lepton sector, testing interaction models, and studying phenomena that have until now, seemed too complex to measure, like $\nu_\tau$ detection and therefore, providing the completion of the 3-flavor neutrino paradigm. Knowledge of the $\nu_\tau$ detection can impact a broad spectrum of open questions. These include searching for non-standard neutrino interactions, constraining the unitarity of the PMNS matrix, searching for sterile neutrinos, and studying neutrino interactions. In the case of LArTPC data, the detector hits can be considered nodes in a graph, and the edges represent the spatial and temporal relationships between them. By using graph neural networks, it is possible to exploit these relationships and improve the accuracy of particle identification and reconstruction. During my presentation and specifically for tau neutrino reconstruction, I will show the effectiveness and reliability of our in-house developed graph neural network (GNN), NuGraph. This GNN classifies detector hits based on the particle type responsible for their production, assuring that the system accurately identifies and categorizes information based on its unique characteristics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Capturing the interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth on a range of timescales: a new “time window” algorithm

Retreat and advance of ice sheets perturb the gravitational field, solid surface and rotation of the Earth, leading to spatially variable sea-level changes over a range of timescales $\textit{O}$ (10 0–6 years), which in turn feed back onto ice-sheet dynamics. Coupled ice-sheet–sea-level models have been developed to capture the interactive processes between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth, but it is computationally challenging to capture short-term interactions $\textit{O}$ (10 0–2 years) precisely within longer $\textit{O}$ (10 3–6 years) simulations. The standard forward sea-level modelling algorithm assigns a uniform temporal resolution in the sea-level model, causing a quadratic increase in total CPU time with the total number of input ice history steps, which increases with either the length or temporal resolution of the simulation. In this study, we introduce a new “time window” algorithm for 1D pseudo-spectral sea-level models based on the normal mode method that enables users to define the temporal resolution at which the ice loading history is captured during different time intervals before the current simulation time. Utilizing the time window, we assign a fine temporal resolution $\textit{O}$ (10 0–2 years) for the period of ongoing and recent history of surface ice and ocean loading changes and a coarser temporal resolution $\textit{O}$ (10 3–6 years) for earlier periods in the simulation. This reduces the total CPU time and memory required per model time step while maintaining the precision of the model results. We explore the sensitivity of sea-level model results to the model temporal resolution and show how this sensitivity feeds back onto ice-sheet dynamics in coupled modelling. We apply the new algorithm to simulate sea-level changes in response to global ice-sheet evolution over two glacial cycles and the rapid collapse of marine sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the coming centuries and provide appropriate time window profiles for each application. The time window algorithm reduces the total CPU time by ~ 50 % in each of these examples and changes the trend of the total CPU time increase from quadratic to linear. This improvement would increase with longer simulations than those considered here. Our algorithm also allows for coupling time intervals of annual temporal scale for coupled ice-sheet–sea-level modelling of regions such as West Antarctica that are characterized by rapid solid Earth response to ice changes due to the thin lithosphere and low mantle viscosities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric Research Over the Extended Western North Atlantic Ocean Region and North American East Coast: A Review of Past Work and Challenges Ahead

Decades of atmospheric research have focused on the extended Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) region, including the East Coast of North America and the island of Bermuda, because of its unique location that offers accessibility, gradients in important atmospheric parameters, and a range of meteorological regimes leading to diverse conditions that are poorly understood. This work reviews decades of scientific investigations for the extended WNAO region. Approximately 40 combined field campaigns and long-term monitoring programs, in addition to 563 peer-reviewed publications between 1950 and 2019 have provided a firm foundation of knowledge for the extended WNAO region. Of particular importance in this region has been extensive work at the island of Bermuda that is host to important time series records of oceanic and atmospheric variables. Our review categorizes WNAO research into eight major categories, with some studies fitting into multiple categories (relative %): Aerosols (26%), Gases (23%), Development/Validation of Techniques, Models, and Retrievals (17%), Meteorology and Transport (10%), Air-Sea Interactions (9%), Wet Deposition (6%), Clouds/Storms (6%), and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (3%). These extensive works have revealed a series of major knowledge gaps. For instance, a disproportionately low number of studies have been devoted to aerosol-cloud interactions, which is identified here as one of the most pressing research needs for the extended WNAO region. Recommendations for future research are provided in the categories highlighted above. Part 2 of this paper series will summarize major spatial and temporal features for the extended WNAO region.

Sorooshian, Armin↗

Effects of break geometry and orientation on helium-air mixing in simulated reactor cavities of high temperature gas reactors

Here, this study experimentally examined the spatial and temporal variations in air and helium concentrations and temperature fields within simulated reactor cavities of a High Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) following helium discharge into an initially air-filled reactor cavity system. Detailed temperature maps were generated using a combination of fiber optics temperature sensor and multiple thermocouple probes within the simulated reactor cavities. The research scenario involved a hypothetical small pipe break in the Reactor Pressure Vessel, resulting in the release of high-temperature helium into the surrounding cavity. A scaled multi-compartment experimental facility, modeled after the General Atomics Modular High Temperature Gas Reactor (GA-MHTGR) design, was constructed for helium and air mixing experiments. Oxygen sensors and thermocouple probes were installed in all five cavities to measure the concentrations of oxygen (or helium) and the temperature distributions of the gas mixture. The experimental findings highlighted the significant impact of the injected helium jet velocity on the gas mixing process and demonstrated how the direction of the helium jet influences the air-helium temperature profiles within the cavities.

Air-ingress↗

First-principles wave-vector- and frequency-dependent exchange-correlation kernel for jellium at all densities

Here we propose a spatially and temporally nonlocal exchange correlation (XC) kernel for the spin-unpolarized fluid phase of ground-state jellium for use in time-dependent density functional and linear response calculations. The kernel is constructed to satisfy known properties of the exact XC kernel to accurately describe the correlation energies of bulk jellium and to satisfy frequency-moment sum rules at a wide range of bulk jellium densities, including those low densities that display strong correlation and symmetry breaking. These effects are easier to understand in the simple jellium model than in real systems. All exact constraints satisfied by the recent MCP07 kernel are maintained in the revised MCP07 (rMCP07) kernel, while others are added. The revision $f^{rMCP07}_{XC}$ (q, ω) differs from MCP07 only for nonzero frequencies ω. Only at densities much lower than those of real bulk metals is the frequency dependence of the kernel important for the correlation energy of jellium. As the wave vector q tends to zero, the kernel has a -4$πα(ω)/q^2$ divergence whose frequency-dependent ultranonlocality coefficient $α(ω)$ vanishes in jellium, and is predicted by rMCP07 to be extremely small for the real metals Al and Na.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Multi-Fidelity Scheme for Accelerating 4D Finite Element Analysis for Mircoreactors

Next-generation microreactors are currently being designed to be operated terrestrial and extraterrestrial for remote surface power production. These systems will provide an alternative source of carbon-free energy that is versatile and can be utilized for various applications. These applications of microreactors have prompted the usage of high-fidelity unstructured finite element (FE) based approaches to provide time-dependent solutions for multiple physics fields. Computing these high-fidelity (4-D) solutions for multiple design iterations, physics fields, and transient events requires an immense computational cost. These high-fidelity solutions are computational expensive and the cost can be reduced through the implementation of less accurate low-fidelity solutions. Unlike the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors, these next-gen systems present challenges due to the material and physical limitations required. Due to these constraints, the brute force technique of parameterizing important system characteristics determines whether a design meets the project objective. A system such as a nuclear reactor could have thousands of design parameters that affect system performance. In order to analyze the entire parameter space of such a complex system would require millions of CPU hours and countless design iterations. This costly approach is not practical due to regulatory and budget limitations. In this proposal, an approach that utilizes hybrid high-fidelity and low-fidelity FE models to reduce the computational cost of evaluating these applications in 4-D will be presented. The accuracy of the high-fidelity model and the computational efficiency of the low-fidelity model are taken advantage of to produce a solution that closely resembles the full order high-fidelity solution. By utilizing an unconverged coarse FE mesh, operation limits such as temperature, structural loading, etc., can be evaluated in an accelerated fashion and then can be spatially interpolated onto a finer mesh. The resulting error arising from the coarse mesh can be mitigated with a discrepancy function that actively quantifies and corrects the error in the coarse solution. This discrepancy function can be periodically updated with high-fidelity calculations across the temporal domain thus requiring less iterations on the fine mesh. As a result, the computational cost can be reduced for the evaluation and design iteration of microreactors. The proposal for this research contains three sections: Section 2 provides a literature review, Section 3 outlines the methodology for the proposed multi-fidelity scheme, and Section 4 displays preliminary results of the proposed research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Characterization of ablator dynamics initiated by picket-pulse conditions

Direct-drive laser-fusion targets may include low-cost plastic ablator material. Here, this work describes a tabletop experimental system designed to enable the investigation of the interaction of such ablator material as a function of the laser wavelength and the associated excitation mechanism. This experimental system offers time-resolved imaging of the material response with subpicosecond temporal resolution and ≈1-μm spatial resolution. The system involves synchronized femtosecond and picosecond lasers to initiate and characterize the dynamics of polystyrene planar targets irradiated by conditions similar to a “picket” prepulse from a direct-drive pulse shape. Ultrafast imaging of the initial excitation process followed by the resulting critical plasma formation, shock-wave propagation, and blowoff plasma expansion is used to compare the impact of excitation wavelength, 355 nm or 266 nm, on the ensuing dynamics. This work aims to investigate fundamental laser material interactions to help advance physics models that can inform the development of laser driver and target designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar PKS 0735+178 in Spatial and Temporal Coincidence with an Astrophysical Neutrino Candidate IceCube-211208A

We report on multiwavelength target-of-opportunity observations of the blazar PKS 0735+178, located 2.°2 away from the best-fit position of the IceCube neutrino event IceCube-211208A detected on 2021 December 8. The source was in a high-flux state in the optical, ultraviolet, X-ray, and GeV γ -ray bands around the time of the neutrino event, exhibiting daily variability in the soft X-ray flux. The X-ray data from Swift-XRT and NuSTAR characterize the transition between the low-energy and high-energy components of the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED), and the γ -ray data from Fermi-LAT, VERITAS, and H.E.S.S. require a spectral cutoff near 100 GeV. Both the X-ray and γ -ray measurements provide strong constraints on the leptonic and hadronic models. We analytically explore a synchrotron self-Compton model, an external Compton model, and a lepto-hadronic model. Models that are entirely based on internal photon fields face serious difficulties in matching the observed SED. The existence of an external photon field in the source would instead explain the observed γ -ray spectral cutoff in both the leptonic and lepto-hadronic models and allow a proton jet power that marginally agrees with the Eddington limit in the lepto-hadronic model. We show a numerical lepto-hadronic model with external target photons that reproduces the observed SED and is reasonably consistent with the neutrino event despite requiring a high jet power.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ecological connectivity and habitat loss shape patterns of genetic diversity in a threatened salamander

Context The maintenance of genetic diversity is essential for preserving adaptive potential in populations, yet it is increasingly threatened by landscape alteration. The field of landscape genetics offers a framework for assessing how patch-level landscape conditions, modeled at multiple scales, influence genetic diversity. Objectives We sought to assess how local environmental features and connectivity influence genetic diversity across 74 four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) breeding wetlands in the southeastern United States. Methods Using next-generation sequencing data and hierarchical Bayesian models, we examined genome-wide heterozygosity in relation to local landscape features and ecological connectivity. We also assessed the scale of effect of landscape features and tested for temporal lag effects. Results Genetic diversity was lower in wetlands with higher levels of historic deforestation and lower connectivity. An interaction between deforestation and connectivity indicated that deforestation had stronger negative effects in isolated wetlands but weaker effects in well-connected wetlands. Accounting for scale of effect and temporal lags was critical for detecting these relationships. Conclusions Our analyses highlight the importance of assessing the spatial scale (scale of effect) and temporal lag of landscape features to detect key drivers of genetic diversity. In line with population genetic theory, our results indicate that the genetic consequences of habitat loss do not affect populations uniformly and are most severe in isolated populations where gene flow cannot buffer against loss of diversity. Altogether, we highlight the importance of considering the interaction of habitat loss and connectivity in conservation genetic management.

Hemidactylium scutatum↗

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drosophila melanogaster pigmentation demonstrates adaptive phenotypic parallelism over multiple spatiotemporal scales

Abstract Populations are capable of responding to environmental change over ecological timescales via adaptive tracking. However, the translation from patterns of allele frequency change to rapid adaptation of complex traits remains unresolved. We used abdominal pigmentation in Drosophila melanogaster as a model phenotype to address the nature, genetic architecture, and repeatability of rapid adaptation in the field. We show that D. melanogaster pigmentation evolves as a highly parallel and deterministic response to shared environmental variation across latitude and season in natural North American populations. We then experimentally evolved replicate, genetically diverse fly populations in field mesocosms to remove any confounding effects of demography and/or cryptic structure that may drive patterns in wild populations; we show that pigmentation rapidly responds, in parallel, in fewer than 15 generations. Thus, pigmentation evolves concordantly in response to spatial and temporal climatic axes. We next examined whether phenotypic differentiation was associated with allele frequency change at loci with established links to genetic variance in pigmentation in natural populations. We found that across all spatial and temporal scales, phenotypic patterns were associated with variation at pigmentation-related loci, and the sets of genes we identified at each scale were largely nonoverlapping. Therefore, our findings suggest that parallel phenotypic evolution is associated with distinct components of the polygenic architecture shifting across each environmental axis to produce redundant adaptive patterns.

Evolutionary Biology↗