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DOE OSTI2025

How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff

Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (W) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in W magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme W magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme W magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme W can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiative feedbacks on land surface change and associated tropical precipitation shifts

Changes in land surface albedo and land surface evaporation modulate the atmospheric energy budget by changing temperatures, water vapor, clouds, snow and ice cover, and the partitioning of surface energy fluxes. Here idealized perturbations to land surface properties are imposed in a global model to understand how such forcings drive shifts in zonal mean atmospheric energy transport and zonal mean tropical precipitation. For a uniform decrease in global land albedo, the albedo forcing and a positive water vapor feedback contribute roughly equally to increased energy absorption at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), while radiative changes due to the temperature and cloud cover response provide a negative feedback and energy loss at TOA. Decreasing land albedo causes a northwards shift in the zonal mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The combined effects on ITCZ location of all atmospheric feedbacks roughly cancel for the albedo forcing; the total ITCZ shift is comparable to that predicted for the albedo forcing alone. For an imposed increase in evaporative resistance that reduces land evaporation, low cloud cover decreases in the northern mid-latitudes and more energy is absorbed at TOA there; longwave loss due to warming provides a negative feedback on the TOA energy balance and ITCZ shift. Imposed changes in land albedo and evaporative resistance modulate fundamentally different aspects of the surface energy budget. However, the pattern of TOA radiation changes due to the water vapor and air temperature responses are highly correlated for these two forcings because both forcings lead to near-surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dual-Polarization Radar Fingerprints of Precipitation Physics: A Review

This article reviews how precipitation microphysics processes are observed in dual-polarization radar observations. These so-called “fingerprints” of precipitation processes are observed as vertical gradients in radar observables. Fingerprints of rain processes are first reviewed, followed by processes involving snow and ice. Then, emerging research is introduced, which includes more quantitative analysis of these dual-polarization radar fingerprints to obtain microphysics model parameters and microphysical process rates. New results based on a detailed rain shaft bin microphysical model are presented, and we conclude with an outlook of potentially fruitful future research directions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

iButton and Tinytag snow temperature measurements at Teller 27 and Kougarok 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021-2022

Snow temperature measurements were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) and at the Kougarok Road Site at mile marker 64 (KG_MM64) on the Seward Peninsula. Data were collected from October 1, 2021 to August 16, 2022 using iButton Link DS1926-F5# Thermochron miniature temperature sensors (https://www.ibuttonlink.com/products/ds1921g) and Tinytag TGP-4017 internal sensors (https://www.micronmeters.com/product/tgp-4017-internal-sensor-40-to-85-c-40-f-to-185-f) deployed across the Kougarok and Teller sites. These sensors are a cost-efficient way to collect snowpack temperatures at a higher spatial resolution than what is normally achieved. iButton data were collected every 4 hours beginning on October 1, 2021. Tinytag data collection began between October 9 and October 12, 2021 depending on sensor installation date. Tinytag data were collected every 30 minutes. In total, data were collected from 236 iButtons and 30 Tinytags. This dataset contains four *.csv files of near-ground surface temperatures at various locations throughout each study site and four *.shp files of sensor locations. Data were collected throughout the snow cover season so that snowpack characteristics could be derived using the temperature data. Sensors were placed both inside and outside of vegetation to better capture the spatial variability of snow properties across each domain. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1978

Documentation of a ground hydrology parameterization for use in the GISS atmospheric general circulation model

The moisture transport processes related to the earth's surface relevant to the ground circulation model GCM are presented. The GHM parametrizations considered are: (1) ground wetness and soil parameters; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) surface storage of snow and ice; and (5) runout. The computational aspects of the GHM using computer programs and flow charts are described.

Lin, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 7: Cost/benefit analysis for the ASVT on operational applications of satellite snow-cover observations

The results of the OASSO ASVT's were used to estimate the benefits accruing from the added information available from satellite snowcover area measurement. Estimates of the improvement in runoff prediction due to addition of SATSCAM were made by the Colorado ASVT personnel. The improvement estimate is 6-10%. Data were applied to subregions covering the Western States snow area amended by information from the ASVT and other watershed experts to exclude areas which are not impacted by snowmelt runoff. Benefit models were developed for irrigation and hydroenergy uses. The benefit/cost ratio is 72:1. Since only two major benefit contributors were used and since the forecast improvement estimate does not take into account future satellite capabilities these estimates are considered to be conservative. The large magnitude of the benefit/cost ratio supports the utility and applicability of SATSCAM.

Castruccio, P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Remote sensing of earth terrain

A systematic approach for the identification of terrain media such as vegetation canopy, forest, and snow covered fields is developed using the optimum polarimetric classifier. The covariance matrices for the various terrain covers are computed from the theoretical models of random medium by evaluating the full polarimetric scattering matrix elements. The optimal classification scheme makes use of a quadratic distance measure and is applied to classify a vegetation canopy consisting of both trees and grass. Experimentally measured data are used to validate the classification scheme. Theoretical probability of classification error using the full polarimetric matrix are compared with classification based on single features including the phase difference between the VV and HH polarization returns. It is shown that the full polarimetric results are optimal and provide better classification performance than single feature measurements. A systematic approach is presented for obtaining the optimal polarimetric matched filter which produces maximum contrast between two scattering classes, each represented by its respective covariance matrix.

Kong, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

Rajbhandaril, Narayan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Estimating Terrestrial Snow Mass via Multi-sensor Assimilation of Synthetic AMSR-E Brightness Temperature Spectral Differences and Synthetic GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals

This study explores multi-sensor data assimilation (DA) using synthetic Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) passive microwave brightness temperature spectral differences (∆T(B)) and synthetic Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage (TWS) retrievals to improve estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE), subsurface water storage, and TWS across snow-covered terrain. Results show that multi-sensor DA improves SWE estimates by reducing the RMSE by 14.1% relative to a model-only simulation. Multi-sensor assimilation also yields the smallest TWS RMSE (reduced by 13.0% relative to a model-only simulation). However, multi-sensor DA does not always yield complementary updates, and can sometimes lead to conflicting changes to SWE, where the assimilation of synthetic ∆T(b) generates positive SWE increments while the assimilation of synthetic TWS removes SWE, which can ultimately degrade the posterior SWE estimates. This synthetic experiment provides useful insight for future DA experiments using real-world AMSR-E/AMSR-2 ∆T(b) observations and GRACE/GRACE-FO TWS retrievals to better characterize terrestrial freshwater storage across regional scales.

Jing Wang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LEO Sensor to GEO Sensor Algorithm Transfer Models for Land Surface Temperature

Land surface temperature (LST) is a key climate observable used to detect changes in the Earth’s surface energy budget that influence carbon and water cycles. Land surface temperature exhibits strong diurnal variability, which geostationary satellites can observe at scale thanks to their temporal resolution. Due to anthropogenic climate and land use changes, the surface energy balance has been considerably modified and may be described by changes in diurnal temperature range and extremes. Using high performance computing and datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we exploit co-located, co-temporal observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) sensors to develop a deep learning-based method for LEO-to-GEO algorithm emulation. Our model is trained to predict MODIS Terra LST from GOES-16 thermal bands and achieves validation error <2K. Application of the model to unseen times of day (observed by MODIS Aqua) and a new GEO sensor (Himawari-8) observing an unseen spatial domain, demonstrate the generalization of the deep learning model across space, time and spectra. Communicating diurnal LST variability observed by geostationary satellites can have impacts in multiple disciplines, from understanding of snow, vegetation and soil dynamics, to recognizing trends in heat events relevant to human health.

Kate Marie Duffy↗

NASA NTRS2022

Dual-Polarization Radar Fingerprints of Precipitation Physics: A Review

precipitation↗

NASA NTRS2024

Bulk Major and Trace Elemental Composition of an Aggregate Sample From Asteroid Bennu

On September 24, 2023, NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission returned a capsule to Earth carrying material from asteroid Bennu. This event was the first time a U.S. mission delivered pristine samples from an asteroid and is the largest asteroid sample return to date. As these samples represent some of the oldest, most primitive, and pristine materials available to us, and which originate from a known and well-studied asteroid, they allow us a rare opportunity to gain a better understanding of the formation and evolution of our solar system. Key to understanding the material returned from asteroid Bennu is establishing its bulk chemical composition. Previous studies have shown that each chondrite group has a distinct elemental composition. For the carbonaceous chondrites specifically, each group exhibits a distinct pattern of moderately and highly volatile elemental depletions, relative to CI chondrites. CI chondrites are considered the most primitive chondrite group and broadly represent the solar photosphere composition. The two most striking features of these depletion patterns is that the moderately volatile element depletions increase with decreasing 50% condensation temperature and then plateau out at abundances that roughly correlate with matrix abundance. Due to these distinctive patterns, bulk elemental composition has become an important classification tool for establishing the different chondrite groups and the connections between them. As such, determining the bulk chemical composition of the Bennu aggregates will help to test two mission hypothesis: “Bennu’s bulk elemental composition reflects that of its main parent asteroid and is similar to the composition of the Sun, with depletions in moderately to highly volatile elements” and “Bennu’s dominant lithologies are comparable in bulk mineralogy, petrology, and composition to the most aqueously altered carbonaceous chondrites” . Furthermore as the carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous chondrites are thought to have likely formed in the inner and outer protoplanetary disk, respectively (e.g., [8]), determining the bulk chemical compositions of the Bennu aggregates will also help test the major mission hypothesis that “Bennu's parent body formed beyond the snow line by accretion of material in the pro-toplanetary disk” . Regarding chondrite formation, observed elemental patterns have been successfully used to model how the mixing of volatile-rich and volatile-poor chondritic components can produce the observed carbonaceous chondrites groups. They have also been significant in investigating how volatilization processes influenced chondrite formation. As such, establishing bulk chemical compositions of the pristine Bennu samples is vital for understanding the asteroid, and solar system formation. To begin this processes, we analyzed the bulk major and trace elemental compositions of Bennu aggregates.

P Koefoed↗

DOE OSTI2023

Orthomosaic Images and Digital Elevation Models for the 2022 SALVO Campaign

The springtime, surface-albedo transition in the Alaskan Arctic and the forcings that determine the duration and nature of that transition are the focus of our Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO I & II) campaign. The SALVO team are assessing the “whys” and “how longs” of the stages of the spring melt during which albedo values drop from 0.8 to 0.1, the largest and most significant change of the year. The near-shore location of the ARM NSA observatory makes this an ideal place to investigate these melt stages.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological analysis in watersheds with a variable-resolution global climate model (VR-CESM)

Traditionally, watershed-scale hydrology is simulated by distributed hydrological models with offline meteorological forcing data, or by regional regional climate models that link atmospheric and land hydrology interactions. Global climate models (GCMs) are rarely used to study watershed-scale hydrology due to the relatively coarse grid resolution, computationally expensive downscaling, and simplified physical processes. Recently, however, watershed-scale hydrology analysis has become possible in GCMs due to the development of variable-resolution GCMs that dynamically couple the hydrological processes between atmosphere and land systems at fine resolutions in selected regions and coarse resolution elsewhere. In this study, we used the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) with refined-resolution (14 km) in the western U.S. and eastern China to evaluate watershed-scale hydrology. Furthermore, we compared the historical VR-CESM outputs with gauge measurements and other hydrological models (e.g., National Water Model in the U.S.) and calibrated the subsurface runoff capacities in four mountainous watersheds. An RCP8.5 projection from 2007 to 2050 is used to estimate the impact of changing precipitation and snow climatology on watershed hydrology. We also analyzed the long-term runoff variability and the possibility of extreme runoff events as simulated by the VR-CESM. Although calibration is not possible in larger-scale watersheds, VR-CESM simulates the long-term annual variability of watersheds and provides insights on climate change impacts on hydrology. We conclude that refined-resolution VR-CESM can be used for watershed-scale hydrology analysis to understand water resources and water balance, in addition to traditional watershed-scale hydrological models. It enables hydrological analysis at multiple watersheds in one simulation and can help understand the two-way dynamics between land surface hydrology and atmospheric processes, and is especially practical for projecting climate change impacts. However, it is challenging to apply VR-CESM for hydrologic analysis in regulated watersheds as human factors (e.g., pumping, irrigation, water diversion) have not been fully addressed in VR-CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Modulation of the Seasonal Cycle of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent By Sea Ice Processes and Feedbacks With the Ocean and the Atmosphere

The seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly asymmetric, with a relatively slow increase after the summer minimum followed by a more rapid decrease after the winter maximum. This cycle is intimately linked to the seasonal cycle of the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere, but sea ice processes as well as the exchanges with the atmosphere and ocean may also play a role. To quantify these contributions, a series of idealized sensitivity experiments have been performed with an eddy-permitting (∘) NEMO-LIM3 (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean–Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model version 3) Southern Ocean configuration, including a representation of ice shelf cavities, in which the model was either driven by an atmospheric reanalysis or coupled to the COSMO-CLM2 regional atmospheric model. In those experiments, sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics as well as the exchanges with the ocean and atmosphere are strongly perturbed. This perturbation is achieved by modifying snow and ice thermal conductivities, the vertical mixing in the ocean top layers, the effect of freshwater uptake and release upon sea ice growth and melt, ice dynamics, and surface albedo. We find that the evolution of sea ice extent during the ice advance season is largely independent of the direct effect of the perturbation and appears thus mainly controlled by initial state in summer and subsequent insolation changes. In contrast, the melting rate varies strongly between the experiments during the retreat, in particular if the surface albedo or sea ice transport are modified, demonstrating a strong contribution of those elements to the evolution of ice coverage through spring and summer. As with the advance phase, the retreat is also influenced by conditions at the beginning of the melt season in September. Atmospheric feedbacks enhance the model winter ice extent response to any of the perturbed processes, and the enhancement is strongest when the albedo is modified. The response of sea ice volume and extent to changes in entrainment of subsurface warm waters to the ocean surface is also greatly amplified by the coupling with the atmosphere.

regional atmosphere ocean sea ice model↗

NASA NTRS1979

The performance of a seasonal global climatic model

A seasonal global climatic model developed by Sellers is studied. Several changes are made to correct errors in the original model and to allow its use in a time dependent simulation mode. The major changes are in the infrared radiation formulation and in the size of the time steps. The seasonal cycles of surface temperature, wind, ice, snow, albedo, horizontal heat transport, and vertical flux of solar and infrared radiation are compared to recent observations. The seasonal cycle of temperature is fairly well reproduced, but has too small an amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. An overestimate of albedo at the poles is found, which is related to errors in some of the other variables. The sensitivity of the model to CO2 and solar constant (O) changes is summarized. Doubling the CO2 amount causes a 2.45 K increase in global average surface temperature (T). Increasing Q by 1% increases T by 3.14K. Decreasing 0 by 1% decreases T by 4.65K. An annual average version of the model is more sensitive to changes in Q than the model with the seasonal cycle.

Robock, A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

End-of-Winter Snow Depth, Temperature, Density, and SWE Measurements at Teller Road Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019

Measurements of end-of-winter snow properties were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) from March 31 to April 7, 2019. This dataset contains three *.csv data files of spatially distributed values of snow depth, snow water equivalent (SWE), and temperature at the snow surface and at the bottom of the snowpack. Data were collected toward the end of the winter season from late March to early April, when the snowpack would be near its maximum. A Snow-Hydro MagnaProbe (http://www.snowhydro.com/products/column2.html) was used to improve collection efficiency and enhance spatial coverage. A user guide included as a *.pdf. This dataset is a continuation of the previous end- of-winter snow surveys conducted at the Teller Road Site in 2016-2018 (Wilson et al., 2020; https://doi.org/10.5440/1592103). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Improving a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme Using TRMM Satellite Observations

Comparisons between cloud model simulations and observations are crucial in validating model performance and improving physical processes represented in the mod Tel.hese modeled physical processes are idealized representations and almost always have large rooms for improvements. In this study, we use data from two different sensors onboard TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) satellite to improve the microphysical scheme in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. TRMM observed mature-stage squall lines during late spring, early summer in central US over a 9-year period are compiled and compared with a case simulation by GCE model. A unique aspect of the GCE model is that it has a state-of-the-art spectral bin microphysical scheme, which uses 33 different bins to represent particle size distribution of each of the seven hydrometeor species. A forward radiative transfer model calculates TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) 85 GHz brightness temperatures from simulated particle size distributions. Comparisons between model outputs and observations reveal that the model overestimates sizes of snow/aggregates in the stratiform region of the squall line. After adjusting temperature-dependent collection coefficients among ice-phase particles, PR comparisons become good while TMI comparisons worsen. Further investigations show that the partitioning between graupel (a high-density form of aggregate), and snow (a low-density form of aggregate) needs to be adjusted in order to have good comparisons in both PR reflectivity and TMI brightness temperature. This study shows that long-term satellite observations, especially those with multiple sensors, can be very useful in constraining model microphysics. It is also the first study in validating and improving a sophisticated spectral bin microphysical scheme according to long-term satellite observations.

Li, Xiaowen↗