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At least 955 records · Page 53

Experimental demonstration of real-time electron temperature profile control in DIII-D

Future tokamak reactor operation will require the ability to maintain a given plasma scenario for extended periods of time. This will necessitate the capability to react to changes in the plasma state and return the plasma to the target scenario; the principal method to achieve this is through feedback control. Thus, it is necessary to develop and test feedback controllers for the plasma profiles that define a target scenario. In this work, a feedback controller for the electron temperature (Te) profile is tested experimentally in DIII-D. This experiment relied on the ability to ascertain the electron temperature profile in real time, which was achieved using an observer algorithm. The observer relies on both diagnostic data and a predictive model of the electron temperature profile evolution; this predictive model includes contributions from neural network surrogate models. Because of these dependencies, a number of capabilities needed to be added to the real-time PCS for DIII-D in order to support the Te profile control experiment. The neural network surrogates needed to be integrated into the PCS to be called in real time. An observer algorithm for the Te profile needed to be added and connected to the Thomson scattering system to allow access to the current state of the profile in real time. When tested, the observer was shown to produce Te profiles that are consistent with the shape of the Thomson scattering data while rejecting much of the noise in the diagnostic data. Finally, the controller itself was tested in real time. This experiment showed that the controller is capable of tracking the electron temperature target at locations across the spatial profile.

Morosohk, Shira [Oak Ridge Associated Universities↗

Development of Detonation Modeling Capabilities for Rocket Test Facilities: Hydrogen-Oxygen-Nitrogen Mixtures

The objective of the presented work was to develop validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based methodologies for predicting propellant detonations and their associated blast environments. Applications of interest were scenarios relevant to rocket propulsion test and launch facilities. All model development was conducted within the framework of the Loci/CHEM CFD tool due to its reliability and robustness in predicting high-speed combusting flow-fields associated with rocket engines and plumes. During the course of the project, verification and validation studies were completed for hydrogen-fueled detonation phenomena such as shock-induced combustion, confined detonation waves, vapor cloud explosions, and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) processes. The DDT validation cases included predicting flame acceleration mechanisms associated with turbulent flame-jets and flow-obstacles. Excellent comparison between test data and model predictions were observed. The proposed CFD methodology was then successfully applied to model a detonation event that occurred during liquid oxygen/gaseous hydrogen rocket diffuser testing at NASA Stennis Space Center.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗

Advanced ISDN satellite designs and experiments

The research performed by GTE Government Systems and the University of Colorado in support of the NASA Satellite Communications Applications Research (SCAR) Program is summarized. Two levels of research were undertaken. The first dealt with providing interim services Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) satellite (ISIS) capabilities that accented basic rate ISDN with a ground control similar to that of the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS). The ISIS Network Model development represents satellite systems like the ACTS orbiting switch. The ultimate aim is to move these ACTS ground control functions on-board the next generation of ISDN communications satellite to provide full-service ISDN satellite (FSIS) capabilities. The technical and operational parameters for the advanced ISDN communications satellite design are obtainable from the simulation of ISIS and FSIS engineering software models of the major subsystems of the ISDN communications satellite architecture. Discrete event simulation experiments would generate data for analysis against NASA SCAR performance measure and the data obtained from the ISDN satellite terminal adapter hardware (ISTA) experiments, also developed in the program. The Basic and Option 1 phases of the program are also described and include the following: literature search, traffic mode, network model, scenario specifications, performance measures definitions, hardware experiment design, hardware experiment development, simulator design, and simulator development.

Pepin, Gerard R.↗

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗

A Sensitivity-driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tool for High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources (IBR)

Traditionally, power system generation sources have been composed of synchronous generators, of which the fault current behavior is understood with minimal differences between generation size and types due to the physics of their construction. Present protection schemes and modeling methods are based upon these understood characteristics. Most renewable generation is composed of inverter-based resources (IBR), in which fault current is determined by switching control software and hardware limitations, each of which can vary between manufacturers and even between models of the same manufacturer. The resulting fault current is low in magnitude, low in negative-sequence current, unpredictable phase angles, and is a challenge to model. These characteristics also result in a challenge to traditional protection schemes and fault simulation software. To address several of these concerns, the project has the following goals: 1. Improve IBR models: Improve IBR models used in short circuit (SC) programs to accurately capture the response of IBRs at the bulk power system (BPS) level for fault and protection studies. 2. Develop automation tool: Develop an automation tool that allows engineers to identify protection coordination and sensitivity issues by performing SC and protection coordination studies in a high IBR-penetrated grid by applying variations to the IBR models, faults, contingencies, etc. 3. Develop schemes: Develop new protection mitigation solution schemes that complement the existing protection systems to ensure safe operation of the BPS with higher IBR penetration levels. The project team did not achieve this final goal, as the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped the project early due to changes in DOE funding priorities. The termination notice came at the beginning of the final project phase, while the team was identifying and beginning to investigate protection issues. It should be noted that the team discussed a 100% penetration scenario. However, this scenario would require the use of grid-forming IBR models that are not presently available. Since developing these models requires additional effort, the 100% penetration scenario was not pursued during this project. In the future, developing the methodology and models for the 100% scenario could benefit the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development and Stability Analysis of Representative Future High Renewable Penetration Power Grid Models for California

The power grid in California is now experiencing a significant increase in renewable generation to achieve 100% clean energy by 2040. This paper discusses a method for developing the transient stability (TS) model of the future high renewable penetration in the power grid in California. The method consists of utilizing an existing future Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) grid model in the database and locating the conventional plants in the base model that will potentially retire in the next few years in California. Next, the dynamic models of those identified conventional plants and controls in the existing model are modified to replicate the future power generation in the California region. Different scenarios of future power grid in California are developed for various renewable penetration levels and control strategies in renewable power plants. The effect of the control strategies on the stability of the power grid under events like loss of generation are evaluated. Based on these evaluations, certain control features in power plants are identified as necessary for stability of future power grids.

Samanta, Sayan↗

Research and Development, Technology Requirements, and Use of Existing Space Assets

Technology requirements are addressed in three categories: (1) Passenger-carrying STS(s); (2) orbital facilities (including on-orbit operations such as servicing) and human factors (crew and passenger training and recreation, on-orbit environmental control, etc.); and (3) ground infrastructure. An example tourism trip scenario is used in discussing possible targets for technology development activities. Some general comments are made as are considerations for other working groups.

Grey, Jerry↗

Current Status of NASA's Heavy Lift Plans

Numerous studies since the Apollo Program of the 1960s have highlighted the benefits of - and the need for - a national heavy lift launch capability to support human exploration, science, national security, and commercial development of space. NASA's most recent and most refined effort to develop that heavy lift capability is the Ares V. Ares V is a key element of NASA's Constellation Program. It s overall goal s part of approved national space policy is to retire the Space Shuttle and develop its successor, complete the International Space Station, and resume human exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO), beginning with exploration of the Moon as a step to other destinations in the Solar System. Ares V s first role is that of cargo vehicle to carry a lunar lander into Earth orbit, rendezvous with astronauts launched on the smaller Ares I crew launch vehicle, and perform the trans lunar injection (TLI) mission to send the mated crew and lander vehicles to the Moon. The design reference missions (DRMs) envisioned for it also include direct lunar cargo flights and a human Mars mission. Although NASA's priority from the start of the Constellation Program to the present has been development of the Ares I and Orion crew vehicle to replace the retiring Shuttle fleet, the Ares team has made significant progress in understanding the performance, design trades, technology needs, mission scenarios, ground and flight operations, cost, and other factors associated with heavy lift development. The current reference configuration was selected during the Lunar Capabilities Concept Review (LCCR) in fall 2008. That design has served since then as a point of departure for further refinements and trades among five participating NASA field centers. Ares V development to date has benefited from progress on the Ares I due to commonality between the vehicles. The Ares I first stage completed a successful firing of a 5-segment solid rocket motor. The Ares I-X launch Numerous studies since the Apollo Program of the 1960s have highlighted the benefits of and the need for - a national heavy lift launch capability to support human exploration, science, national security, and commercial development of space. NASA s most recent and most refined effort to develop that heavy lift capability is the Ares V. Ares V is a key element of NASA s Constellation Program. It s overall goal s part of approved national space policy is to retire the Space Shuttle and develop its successor, complete the International Space Station, and resume human exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO), beginning with exploration of the Moon as a step to other destinations in the Solar System. Ares V s first role is that of cargo vehicle to carry a lunar lander into Earth orbit, rendezvous with astronauts launched on the smaller Ares I crew launch vehicle, and perform the trans lunar injection (TLI) mission to send the mated crew and lander vehicles to the Moon. The design reference missions (DRMs) envisioned for it also include direct lunar cargo flights and a human Mars mission. Although NASA s priority from the start of the Constellation Program to the present has been development of the Ares I and Orion crew vehicle to replace the retiring Shuttle fleet, the Ares team has made significant progress in understanding the performance, design trades, technology needs, mission scenarios, ground and flight operations, cost, and other factors associated with heavy lift development. The current reference configuration was selected during the Lunar Capabilities Concept Review (LCCR) in fall 2008. That design has served since then as a point of departure for further refinements and trades among five participating NASA field centers. Ares V development to date has benefited from progress on the Ares I due to commonality between the vehicles. The Ares I first stage completed a successful firing of a 5-segment solid rocket motor. The Ares I-X launch successfully demonstrated in suborbital flighhe ability to assemble, prepare, launch, control and recover the Ares I configuration and compare performance to computer models. Component tests continue on the J-2X engine, which will put both the Ares I and Ares V upper stages into orbit. In addition, more than 100,000 parts have been manufactured or on the assembly line for the first J-2X powerpack and the first two development engines, with hot fire tests to begin in 2011. This paper will further detail the progress to date on the Ares V and planned activities for the remainder of 2010. In addition, the Ares V team has continued its outreach to potential user communities in science and national security. Through the Constellation Program, NASA has amassed an enormous knowledge base in the design, technologies, and operations of heavy lift launch vehicles that will be a national asset for any future launch vehicle decision. This early phase of the design presents the best opportunity to incorporate where possible the insights and needs of other users.

Creech, Steve↗

Incorporating FLEX Strategies in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The catastrophic Fukushima nuclear accident reminded nuclear community about the possibilities of extreme accident scenarios, including those involving multiple reactor units on the same site. As the responses to the Fukushima accident, the nuclear power industry developed and implemented a series of strategies, including the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), to enhance the coping capacities of nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme accidents. This study intends to examine the impact of FLEX strategies on the risk from all the reactor units on the same NPP site, including risks from accidents involving a single unit and from accidents involving multiple units. The fundamental, methodological element of this study is Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA), which requires a shift in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) from a “one-reactor-at-a-time” mindset to a “considering all reactors sharing a site as a unity” one. An integrated modeling approach for multi-unit event sequence development will be leveraged to develop MUPRA model and address the intra-unit and inter-unit dependencies. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), a PRA software developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), will serve as the platform for MUPRA modeling. This study selects Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP) as a representative initiating event, which may occur on a generic two-unit NPP site and impacts both reactor units on the site. First, an MUPRA model, including multi-unit event trees, will be developed to obtain single-unit and multi-unit accident scenarios. Next, different FLEX strategies will be assumed, including FLEX equipment for a unit cannot be used for another unit, FLEX equipment for multiple units can be used in a cross-connected manner, etc. Lastly, the effectiveness of each postulated FLEX strategy will be evaluated by incorporating the corresponding FLEX equipment and deployment logic in the MUPRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector: 2020 - 2030

This report is part one of a two-part series that represents a year-long collaboration with the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation Limited (TANGEDCO) and Tamil Nadu Transmission Corporation Limited (TANTRANSCO) on power sector planning. This Pathways for Tamil Nadu’s Electric Power Sector 2020-2030 report outlines NREL’s work with TANGEDCO's electricity sector planning department to develop a model of the State power system and evaluate multiple scenarios of system evolution given resource constraints, costs of technologies, and power sector policies. A broad stakeholder group comprised of TANGEDCO leadership, developers, regulators, and researchers from within the power sector community in Tamil Nadu helped to guide the main objectives of the study and provided technical feedback to the research team. The outcomes of this effort include multiple pathways for power sector growth to 2030 and a robust model of Tamil Nadu's power system that can be used to continually analyze the impact of new policies, regulations, or system changes. The second report in this series will build on the bulk system analysis by focusing on the rapidly transforming distribution network in the State. The report will outline a framework developed by NREL and TANGEDCO's distribution utility to quickly and accurately analyze the impacts of integrating renewable energy onto Tamil Nadu's distribution system. Together these studies help to prepare Tamil Nadu for a rapidly transforming power system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Strategies For Human Exploration Leading To Human Colonization of Space

Enabling the commercial development of space is key to the future colonization of space and key to a viable space exploration program. Without commercial development following in the footsteps of exploration it is difficult to justify and maintain public interest in the efforts. NASA's exploration program has suffered from the lack of a good commercial economic strategy for decades. Only small advances in commercial space have moved forward, and only up to Earth orbit with the commercial satellite industry. A way to move beyond this phase is to begin the establishment of human commercial activities in space in partnership with the human exploration program. In 2007 and 2008, the authors researched scenarios to make space exploration and commercial space development more feasible as part of their graduate work in the Space Architecture Program at the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture at the University of Houston, Houston, Texas. Through this research it became apparent that the problems facing future colonization are much larger than the technology being developed or the international missions that our space agencies are pursuing. These issues are addressed in this paper with recommendations for space exploration, commercial development, and space policy that are needed to form a strategic plan for human expansion into space. In conclusion, the authors found that the current direction in space as carried out by our space agencies around the world is definitely needed, but is inadequate and incapable of resolving all of the issues that inhibit commercial space development. A bolder vision with strategic planning designed to grow infrastructures and set up a legal framework for commercial markets will go a long way toward enabling the future colonization of space.

Smitherman, David↗

Upset Recovery Human Factors

Accident and incident analyses as well as industry group concerns and recommendations have justified taking a second look at proficiency standards related to upset recovery training and performance. Quite a number of factors and theories have been suggested-- leading the NASA Aviation Safety Program to reconsider manual handling skills in highly automated aircraft particularly in conditions that can potentially lead to Loss of Control events. Our team of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) first identified 76 Basic Recovery Skills that were important for effective crew response under five different anomaly conditions. In addition to manual handling skills, the skill set included knowledge and cognitive skills, as well as decision making and management skills. Advanced Recovery Skills were identified by combining skills, integrating with crew resource management skills, and developing heuristics for decision making.Using the Advanced Recovery Skill set, the SMEs then developed a generic process flow starting from the problem discovery phase (e.g., identifying an anomaly) through the decision making and management phase (e.g., assessing response options), through the recovery phase (e.g., controlling the aircraft). The generic process flow was refined by testing it against six additional scenarios. The next part of the project was to develop an approach for assessing and revising a generic training curriculum (we used an operators Advanced Qualification Program (AQP) as a framework). Although many of the Basic and Advanced Recovery Skills could be found in the Job Task Listing, they were not always structured or combined in the most effective way. Recommendations were developed for assessing relevant aspects of the Job Task Listing and Continuing Qualification curriculum so that the more comprehensive set of Upset Recovery skillsincluding Human Factors--could be trained and assessed in the most appropriate and effective context. The existing AQP methodology provides a natural way to insert targeted Upset Recovery skills into its system of proficiency objectives, training devices, training activities, and ultimately, into the event sets of a simulator training scenario.

AQP training↗

Terminal Descent Radar System Testbed for Future Planetary Landers

Terminal Descent Radars (TDR), or landing radars, have been an integral element of Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN\&C) sensor suites of robotic exploration missions to the Moon and Mars. As plans for new, exciting exploration missions to the Moon, Mars and other planetary bodies are being developed, there is a need for a new generation of TDRs that are smaller, consume less power and are less expensive than previous sensors. The challenge of designing such a landing sensor is twofold: the first is to have well-vetted software tools that allow us to explore the design space for a particular mission scenario and analyze performance of relevant radar architectures. The second challenge is to reduce mass and power requirements of a landing radar without compromising reliability and performance. New design approaches that address these challenges need to be tested and demonstrated in realistic Entry-Descent-Landing (EDL)/Deorbit-Descent-Landing (DDL) scenarios. In this paper, we describe a TDR testbed developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The testbed is a closed-loop design, analysis and verification capability used to design and evaluate the next generation of landing radars for a variety of EDL/DDL scenarios.

Tope, Michael↗

Terminal Descent Radar System Testbed for Future Planetary Landers

Terminal Descent Radars (TDR), or landing radars, have been an integral element of Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN\&C) sensor suites of robotic exploration missions to the Moon and Mars. As plans for new, exciting exploration missions to the Moon, Mars and other planetary bodies are being developed, there is a need for a new generation of TDRs that are smaller, consume less power and are less expensive than previous sensors. The challenge of designing such a landing sensor is twofold: the first is to have well-vetted software tools that allow us to explore the design space for a particular mission scenario and analyze performance of relevant radar architectures. The second challenge is to reduce mass and power requirements of a landing radar without compromising reliability and performance. New design approaches that address these challenges need to be tested and demonstrated in realistic Entry-Descent-Landing (EDL)/Deorbit-Descent-Landing (DDL) scenarios. In this paper, we describe a TDR testbed developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The testbed is a closed-loop design, analysis and verification capability used to design and evaluate the next generation of landing radars for a variety of EDL/DDL scenarios.

Tope, Michael↗

Robust Restoration From Cyber-Physical Attacks in Active Distribution Grids With Grid-Edge IBRs

The inverter-based resources (IBRs) have enabled the integration of renewable energy at the grid edge with enhanced control capabilities to support the reliable operation of power grids. Different control frameworks, such as hierarchical or distributed architecture, have been proposed with the expansion of cyber networks for real-time monitoring and control. This evolution of critical infrastructure into cyber-physical systems also brings more vulnerabilities for the broadened attack surfaces, and significantly increases the possibility of physical system failures or outages caused by cyberattacks. Among tremendous efforts in the defense-in-depth approach, it remains challenging to provide prompt detection and accurate location of attack entry points or paths. Therefore, the prevailing restoration framework may struggle to fully consider the cyber-physical interdependence, successfully isolate the compromised cyber and physical components, and safely recover the systems without the potential risks leading to secondary outages. This paper is motivated to develop a cyber-physical restoration framework for distribution grids to recover from cyber attacks by harnessing grid-edge IBRs. The framework is first built on the operational guidelines of IBRs considering the compromised cyber layer. Then, an ambiguity set is established to represent the uncertainty of attack scenarios and their possibility levels. Next, a distributionally robust optimization model is developed to provide the optimal load restoration strategy across all scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through various use cases on the modified IEEE 13-node and 123-node test systems. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and advancement of developed post-attack restoration strategies.

Cybersecurity↗

Investigation of Cycling Coal-Fired Power Plants Using High-Fidelity Models

The project delivers a well-integrated and validated simulation platform for cycling operation analysis in coal-fired power plant. Two critical mechanical components of the boiler island were analyzed through mechanical integrity assessment and economic benefit analysis. The current phase of the project focuses on the development of the integrated simulation infrastructure and prove its feasibility and effectiveness using two typical use cases. This integrated platform can help save a lot of engineering efforts for model development and simulation analysis. Through the real simulation scenarios in this document, it was demonstrated that using this platform, an analysis can be completed in approximately 2 days, while it could cost several weeks before using this platform. Going forward, the platform built in this project can be used for more boiler service applications, and it can be further enhanced with more functions/features to maximize its usage and benefits. 1) Extend component-level analysis with more use cases to cover all the major critical components of boiler island under cycling operations. A library of critical components can be developed and validated for typical pulverized coal-fired subcritical boiler units. 2) Develop predictive maintenance features based on the integrated models (Digital Twins) and engineering analysis procedures. Predictive maintenance enables each asset to be serviced based on forecast on life consumption and cost profile for replacing/welding the critical mechanical parts of the boiler. This minimizes the chance of unscheduled shutdowns and emergency services at much higher costs and prevent the fatal accidents in unit operations. 3) Develop and maintain a standard library for critical component analysis under flexible plant operations, which will include libraries of: process models, MI models for typical pressure parts, and economic models with typical plant operating data and ISO power trade data.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗