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At least 955 records · Page 53

Integrated Real-Time Modeling System for Heliospheric Space Weather Forecasting

The Sun lies at the center of space weather and is the source of its variability. The primary input to coronal and solar wind models is the activity of the magnetic field in the solar photosphere. What is needed is to develop physics-based models for the dynamics of the magnetic field from the deep convection zone of the Sun to the corona with the goal of providing robust near real-time boundary conditions at the base of space weather forecast models. NASA strategic capabilities efforts toward this goal will be summarized during the talk. These have the objective to enable characterizing and predicting the magnetic field structure and flow dynamics of the Sun by assimilating data from helioseismology and magnetic field observations into physics-based realistic magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations. It is argued that an effort in integrating first-principle modeling of solar magnetism and flow dynamics with real-time observational data via advanced data assimilation methods is needed for transformative steps in space weather research and prediction.

Mansour, Nagi N.↗

Implementation of a Three-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization in a Coupled Modeling System and Evaluation of "Gray Zone" Simulations of a Wind-Wave Event Off the US California Coast Using Observations

A three-dimensional (3D) planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization was added to the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) model and the first coupled atmosphere/wave "gray zone" simulations were carried out using the 3D PBL parameterization. A case study of a significant wind-wave event from 4-8 November 2020 off the US west coast was examined, with a focus on the impacts of the event within an approximate 280x280 km central California coastal region covering the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Morro Bay wind energy lease area. Simulations with both one-dimensional (1D; Yonsei University) and 3D PBL parameterizations were examined in this nest with ..delta..x=400 m. Two-way coupling was active, with near-surface winds feeding back to the wave model and bulk wave statistics feeding back to the atmospheric model. Both simulations compared favorably with buoy observations in capturing the timing and magnitude of wind speed, temperature, dewpoint, and significant wave height, as the front associated with the maritime weather system moved southward across coastal California. However, wind speed errors over land were larger. Time series of the vertical profile of winds below z=250 m from the simulations compared favorably with observations from the US Dept. of Energy Morro Bay Doppler lidar buoy. Differences between the coupled 1D and 3D PBL simulations were minor. The most notable difference was that the simulation using the 3D PBL parameterization had approximately 10 % weaker winds at the peak of the event causing 10 % lower significant wave heights. This difference was shown to be mostly due to differences in the vertical mixing treatment between the parameterizations, in particular the nonlocal downward mixing of higher momentum air in the 1D Yonsei University parameterization in convective conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates that the 3D PBL parameterization can be used in a coupled atmosphere/wave modeling framework with similar behaviors as traditional PBL parameterizations that do not provide horizontal turbulent variances and fluxes.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Unique natural system modeling aspects of the H-Tank Farm at the Savannah river site - 15271

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is in the process of closing radioactive waste storage tanks at the Savannah River Site (SRS). One of the key technical documents supporting closure and regulatory decision documents is the Performance Assessment (PA). PAs within the DOE complex are performance-based, risk-informed analyses of the fate and transport of residual contaminants, in this case any residual material remaining following cleaning and closure of the tank systems. There are two active radioactive waste storage facilities at SRS, F-Tank Farm (FTF) and H-Tank Farm (HTF), which consist of 51 carbon steel waste tanks. To date, six tanks have been emptied and closed in FTF. Activities are currently in progress to support closure of the first tanks in HTF. A PA has been developed for HTF and includes modeling that takes into account the unique aspects of the natural system associated with HTF. These unique aspects include the water table elevation in relation to the tanks and the complex flow patterns of the groundwater beneath HTF. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Quick Urban and Industrial Complex (QUIC) CBR Plume Modeling System: Validation-Study Document

This document contains information on QUIC validation studies that have been performed to evaluate the wind, pressure, and concentration solutions produced by QUIC. Tests of QUIC's source term models and specialized transport mechanisms (e.g., buoyancy algorithms, particle settling and deposition, liquid pool growth, droplet and pool evaporation) are also provided. A brief description of the experiment, a few example validation results, and references to journal articles, reports, and/or presentations are given. Both LANL and non-LANL sources are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exact thermal density functional theory for a model system: Correlation components and accuracy of the zero-temperature exchange-correlation approximation

Thermal density functional theory calculations often use the Mermin-Kohn-Sham scheme, but employ ground-state approximations to the exchange-correlation (XC) free energy. In the simplest solvable nontrivial model, an asymmetric Hubbard dimer, we calculate the exact many-body energies and the exact Mermin-Kohn-Sham functionals for this system and extract the exact XC free energy. For moderate temperatures and weak correlation, we find this approximation to be excellent. Here we extract various exact free-energy correlation components and the exact adiabatic connection formula.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Wildfire Smoke Forecasts from Multiple Modeling Systems for the 2019 Williams Flats Fire

Wildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources of uncertainties in air quality forecasts. In this study, we evaluate the smoke emissions and plume forecasts from 12 state-of-the-art air quality forecasting systems during the Williams Flats fire in Washington State, US, August 2019, which was intensively observed during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Model forecasts with lead times within 1 d are intercompared under the same framework based on observations from multiple platforms to reveal their performance regarding fire emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), surface PM2.5, plume injection, and surface PM2.5 to AOD ratio. The comparison of smoke organic carbon (OC) emissions suggests a large range of daily totals among the models, with a factor of 20 to 50. Limited representations of the diurnal patterns and day-to-day variations of emissions highlight the need to incorporate new methodologies to predict the temporal evolution and reduce uncertainty of smoke emission estimates. The evaluation of smoke AOD (sAOD) forecasts suggests overall underpredictions in both the magnitude and smoke plume area for nearly all models, although the high-resolution models have a better representation of the fine-scale structures of smoke plumes. The models driven by fire radiative power (FRP)-based fire emissions or assimilating satellite AOD data generally outperform the others. Additionally, limitations of the persistence assumption used when predicting smoke emissions are revealed by substantial underpredictions of sAOD on 8 August 2019, mainly over the transported smoke plumes, owing to the underestimated emissions on 7 August. In contrast, the surface smoke PM2.5 (sPM2.5) forecasts show both positive and negative overall biases for these models, with most members presenting more considerable diurnal variations of sPM2.5. Overpredictions of sPM2.5 are found for the models driven by FRP-based emissions during nighttime, suggesting the necessity to improve vertical emission allocation within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Smoke injection heights are further evaluated using the NASA Langley Research Center's Differential Absorption High Spectral Resolution Lidar (DIAL-HSRL) data collected during the flight observations. As the fire became stronger over 3–8 August, the plume height became deeper, with a day-to-day range of about 2–9 km a.g.l. However, narrower ranges are found for all models, with a tendency of overpredicting the plume heights for the shallower injection transects and underpredicting for the days showing deeper injections. The misrepresented plume injection heights lead to inaccurate vertical plume allocations along the transects corresponding to transported smoke that is 1 d old. Discrepancies in model performance for surface PM2.5 and AOD are further suggested by the evaluation of their ratio, which cannot be compensated for by solely adjusting the smoke emissions but are more attributable to model representations of plume injections, besides other possible factors including the evolution of PBL depths and aerosol optical property assumptions. By consolidating multiple forecast systems, these results provide strategic insight on pathways to improve smoke forecasts.

AOD↗

System Modeling and Simulation of In-Stream Hydrokinetic Turbines for Power Management and Control

Electricity generation from moving currents without using dams (i.e., in-stream hydrokinetic electricity) has the potential to introduce multiple GW of renewable power to U.S. grids. Here this study evaluates a control system designed to regulate the generator rotor rate (rpm) to improve power production from in-stream hydrokinetic turbines. The control algorithm is evaluated using numerical models of both a rigidly mounted tidal turbine (TT) and a moored ocean current turbine (OCT) coupled to an induction electric machine model. The moored simulation utilizes an innovative approach for coupling a multiple degrees-of-freedom (DOF) nonlinear hydrodynamic/mechanical turbine model with a nonlinear electromechanical generator model. Based on the turbine torque-speed characteristic, as well as the asynchronous machine features, a proportional–integral (PI) controller is used to generate a correction term for the frequency of the three-phase sinusoidal voltages that are supplied to the asynchronous generator. The speed control of the induction generator through the supply frequency is accomplished by a simplified voltage source inverter (VSI). The simplified VSI consists of control voltage sources (CVSs), while the comparison with a real VSI using diodes and transistors, which are controlled by pulse width modulation (PWM) technique, is also presented. Simulations are used to evaluate the developed algorithms showing that rpm fluctuations are around 0.02 for a tidal turbine operating in a wave field with a 6 m significant wave height and around 0.005 for a moored ocean current turbine operating in a wave field with a 2 m significant wave height.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A Production System Model of Capturing Reactive Moving Targets

Subjects manipulated a control stick to position a cursor over a moving target that reacted with a computer-generated escape strategy. The cursor movements were described at two levels of abstraction. At the upper level, a production system described transitions among four modes of activity; rapid acquisition, close following, a predictive mode, and herding. Within each mode, differential equations described trajectory-generating mechanisms. A simulation of this two-level model captures the targets in a manner resembling the episodic time histories of human subjects.

Jagacinski, R. J.↗

From CMS to the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center – Improved Tracking of Recent Changes in Co 2 and Ch 4 From NASA’s Quasi-Operational Modeling Systems

Reliable, low latency delivery of high quality global flux and concentration information is a growing but still unmet need to advance expanding measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification efforts that underpin federal climate mitigation strategies. Here we present on progress toward developing space-based greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring systems that can provide comprehensive information trailing real time by a matter of weeks to a few months. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO 2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO 2 ) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO 2 mixing ratio. When observations are unavailable, concentration fields are further informed by observationally-informed bottom-up flux packages that incorporate remotely sensed fire, nighttime lights, and vegetation observations combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of these datasets supports evaluation with independent aircraft data to improve confidence in satellite data, development of new regional modeling approaches, and quantification of the climate impacts of GHGs. The system has recently been expanded to assimilate XCH 4 from ESA’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument and is supported by companion efforts to improve delivery of estimates of bottom-up land and ocean fluxes. The quasi-operational GEOS-GHG system is contributing to the recently announced U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center (GHG Center) by delivering information on recent changes in CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and concentrations to support stakeholder and research communities. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the current system configured to support the GHG Center. We highlight examples of how this data contributes to broader NASA initiatives including the Earth Information Center, an innovative virtual and physical exhibit designed to show how NASA data helps the nation combat climate change. We conclude by discussing how innovations in CMS research can address remaining data gaps and modeling challenges to advance operational GHG monitoring in the future.

Lesley Ott↗

Unmanned Aviation Systems Models of the Radio Communications Links: Study Results - Appendices Annex 2. Volume 1 and Volume 2

This report describes the analysis of communications between the Control Station and an Unmanned Aircraft (UA) flying in the National Airspace System (NAS). This work is based on the RTCA SC-203 Operational Services and Environment Description (OSED). The OSED document seeks to characterize the highly different attributes of all UAs navigating the airspace and define their relationship to airspace users, air traffic services, and operating environments of the NAS. One goal of this report is to lead to the development of Minimum Aviation System Performance Standards for Control and Communications. This report takes the nine scenarios found in the OSED and analyzes the communication links.

Birr, Richard B.↗

Aircraft system modeling error and control error

A method for modeling error-driven adaptive control of an aircraft. Normal aircraft plant dynamics is modeled, using an original plant description in which a controller responds to a tracking error e(k) to drive the component to a normal reference value according to an asymptote curve. Where the system senses that (1) at least one aircraft plant component is experiencing an excursion and (2) the return of this component value toward its reference value is not proceeding according to the expected controller characteristics, neural network (NN) modeling of aircraft plant operation may be changed. However, if (1) is satisfied but the error component is returning toward its reference value according to expected controller characteristics, the NN will continue to model operation of the aircraft plant according to an original description.

Kulkarni, Nilesh V.↗

Integrated System Modeling for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP)

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) has long been identified as a key enabling technology for space exploration beyond LEO. From Wernher Von Braun's early concepts for crewed missions to the Moon and Mars to the current Mars Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0 and recent lunar and asteroid mission studies, the high thrust and specific impulse of NTP opens up possibilities such as reusability that are just not feasible with competing approaches. Although NTP technology was proven in the Rover / NERVA projects in the early days of the space program, an integrated spacecraft using NTP has never been developed. Such a spacecraft presents a challenging multidisciplinary systems integration problem. The disciplines that must come together include not only nuclear propulsion and power, but also thermal management, power, structures, orbital dynamics, etc. Some of this integration logic was incorporated into a vehicle sizing code developed at NASA's Glenn Research Center (GRC) in the early 1990s called MOMMA, and later into an Excel-based tool called SIZER. Recently, a team at GRC has developed an open source framework for solving Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis and Optimization (MDAO) problems called OpenMDAO. A modeling approach is presented that builds on previous work in NTP vehicle sizing and mission analysis by making use of the OpenMDAO framework to enable modular and reconfigurable representations of various NTP vehicle configurations and mission scenarios. This approach is currently applied to vehicle sizing, but is extensible to optimization of vehicle and mission designs. The key features of the code will be discussed and examples of NTP transfer vehicles and candidate missions will be presented.

Systems Engineering↗

Wind Tunnel Management and Resource Optimization: A Systems Modeling Approach

Time, money, and, personnel are becoming increasingly scarce resources within government agencies due to a reduction in funding and the desire to demonstrate responsible economic efficiency. The ability of an organization to plan and schedule resources effectively can provide the necessary leverage to improve productivity, provide continuous support to all projects, and insure flexibility in a rapidly changing environment. Without adequate internal controls the organization is forced to rely on external support, waste precious resources, and risk an inefficient response to change. Management systems must be developed and applied that strive to maximize the utility of existing resources in order to achieve the goal of "faster, cheaper, better". An area of concern within NASA Langley Research Center was the scheduling, planning, and resource management of the Wind Tunnel Enterprise operations. Nine wind tunnels make up the Enterprise. Prior to this research, these wind tunnel groups did not employ a rigorous or standardized management planning system. In addition, each wind tunnel unit operated from a position of autonomy, with little coordination of clients, resources, or project control. For operating and planning purposes, each wind tunnel operating unit must balance inputs from a variety of sources. Although each unit is managed by individual Facility Operations groups, other stakeholders influence wind tunnel operations. These groups include, for example, the various researchers and clients who use the facility, the Facility System Engineering Division (FSED) tasked with wind tunnel repair and upgrade, the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Fabrication (FAB) group which fabricates repair parts and provides test model upkeep, the NASA and LARC Strategic Plans, and unscheduled use of the facilities by important clients. Expanding these influences horizontally through nine wind tunnel operations and vertically along the NASA management structure greatly increases the complexity of developing a model that can be used for successfully implementing a standardized management planning tool. The objective of this study was to implement an Integrated Wind Tunnel Planning System to improve the operations within the aeronautics testing and research group, in particular Wind Tunnel Enterprise. The study included following steps: Conducted literature search and expert discussions (NASA and Old Dominion University faculty), Performed environmental scan of NASA Langley wind tunnel operations as foundation for problem definition. Established operation requirements and evaluation methodologies. Examined windtunnel operations to map out the common characteristics, critical components, and system structure. Reviewed and evaluated various project scheduling and management systems for implementation, Evaluated and implemented "Theory of Constraints (TOC)" project scheduling methodology at NASA Langley wind tunnel operations together with NASA staff.

Jacobs, Derya, A.↗

Thermal Systems Modeling for Integration of Industrial Processes with Advanced Nuclear

Applying combined heat and power concepts to advanced nuclear reactors can enable increased nuclear utilization in the future clean economy, as well as provide safe and reliable clean energy to industrial systems. Analyses have been performed to evaluate the integration of nuclear energy with industrial processes for both clean electricity production and providing process heat for direct use to reduce emissions in the production of chemical commodities. The key research question that needs to be answered is: "What are the prospective approaches for integrating nuclear-generated heat energy into non-electric applications that can facilitate combined heat and power operations by advanced nuclear reactor systems?" This presentation will highlight several case studies showing conceptual designs for thermal delivery systems to integrate small modular reactor (SMR) process steam and electricity with industrial processes including oil refining, hydrogen production, and methanol production.

hydrogen↗

A Comprehensive Comparison of Methods for Evaluating Dispatch of Long-Duration Energy Storage in Power Systems Models

Long-duration energy storage (LDES) could play a pivotal role in the transformation of electricity grids with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as solar and wind. However, the weather-dependent nature of VRE introduces challenges for grid balancing and stability, which LDES - along with short-duration energy storage (SDES) - can help address. However, modeling LDES in production cost models (PCMs) is particularly challenging due to the need for high temporal resolution over extended optimization windows while preserving chronology, which ensures the alignment of energy storage operations with VRE generation over multi-day periods. This report compares traditional dispatch methods with advanced LDES dispatch strategies, such as the extended horizon approach, across different PCM platforms and examines tradeoffs and scalability. The comparison reveals that the traditional 1-day optimization horizon within the PCM leads to inefficient utilization of LDES. In contrast, extending the optimization horizon as much as possible significantly reduces curtailment and improves storage dispatch, especially in renewable-dense systems. There is also promise in using state-of-charge or end volume targets set by an external model, however this requires an additional modeling set and generally increases computational burden. This paper presents a comparison of these various methods in a number of power systems, showing algorithms initially in small test systems and scaling up to large, country-wide simulations. Overall, the research presents the trade-offs of various computational methods and illustrates how LDES may play an essential role in power systems of the future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The nu Andromedae System: Models and Stability

Radial velocity observations of the F8 V star nu Andromedae taken at Lick and at Whipple Observatories have revealed evidence of three periodicities in the line-of-sight velocity of the star. These periodicities have been interpreted as evidence for at least three low-mass companions (LMCs) revolving around nu Andromedae. The mass and orbital parameters inferred for these companions raise questions about the dynamical stability of the system. We report here results from our independent analysis of the published radial velocity data, as well as new unpublished data taken at Lick Observatory. Our results confirm the finding of three periods in the data. Our best fits to the data, on the assumption that these periods arise from the gravitational perturbations of companions in Keplerian orbits, are also generally in agreement but with some differences from the earlier findings. We find that the available data do not constrain well the orbital eccentricity of the middle companion in a three-companion model of the data. We also find that in order for our best-fit model to the Lick data to be dynamically stable over the lifetime of the star (approximately 2 billion years), the system must have a mean inclination to the plane of the sky greater than 13 deg. The corresponding minimum inclination for the best fit to the Whipple data set is 19 deg. These values imply that the maximum mass for the outer companion can be no greater than about 20 Jupiter masses. Our analysis of the stability of the putative systems also places constraints on the relative inclinations of the orbital planes of the companions. We comment on global versus local (i.e., method of steepest descent) means of finding best-fit orbits from radial velocity data sets.

Stepinski, Tomasz F.↗

A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

probabilistic risk↗