Results for “Robust optimization” — Page 53

NASA NTRS2014

Novel Catalysts and Processing Technologies for Production of Aerospace Fuels from Non-Petroleum Raw Materials

Transportation fuels production (including aerospace propellants) from non-traditional sources (gases, waste materials, and biomass) has been an active area of research and development for decades. Reducing terrestrial waste streams simultaneous with energy conversion, plentiful biomass, new low-cost methane sources, and/or extra-terrestrial resource harvesting and utilization present significant technological and business opportunities being realized by a new generation of visionary entrepreneurs. We examine several new approaches to catalyst fabrication and new processing technologies to enable utilization of these non-traditional raw materials. Two basic processing architectures are considered: a single-stage pyrolysis approach that seeks to basically re-cycle hydrocarbons with minimal net chemistry or a two-step paradigm that involves production of supply or synthesis gas (mainly carbon oxides and hydrogen) followed by production of fuel(s) via Sabatier or methanation reactions and/or Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. Optimizing the fraction of product stream relevant to targeted aerospace (and other transportation) fuels via modeling, catalyst fabrication and novel reactor design are described. Energy utilization is a concern for production of fuels for either terrestrial or space operations; renewable sources based on solar energy and/or energy efficient processes may be mission enabling. Another important issue is minimizing impurities in the product stream(s), especially those potentially posing risks to personnel or operations through (catalyst) poisoning or (equipment) damage. Technologies being developed to remove (and/or recycle) heteroatom impurities are briefly discussed as well as the development of chemically robust catalysts whose activity are not diminished during operation. The potential impacts on future missions by such new approaches as well as balance of system issues are addressed.

propellants↗

NASA NTRS2024

3D Scanning System to Assess Gravity-Dependent Body Shape Changes

The human body shows unique physiological and morphological changes when exposed to different gravity conditions, including muscle atrophy, fluid shift, spinal elongation, and body posture adjustments. Such changes need to be incorporated for human-system integration in the vehicle habitat, garment, and spacesuit designs, as inaccurate body measurements can result in suboptimal crew protection that can potentially decrease injury tolerance. However, the traditional linear measurements, such as stature, segment lengths or circumferences measured using a caliper or tape measure, often show limited consistency and are unable to capture the nonlinear characteristics of the human body. While 3D body scanning can provide significant advantages over linear measurements, the technologies have not been fully developed or customized for in-flight scanning. For ground laboratory use, several different scanner types are commercially available. However, in-flight scanning requires additional technical considerations, such as minimal scan time, simplified calibration, and sufficient capture volume. This work aims to develop a prototype 3-D body scanning system that is customized for in-flight use to scan crewmembers, with the configuration and performance optimized for detecting known gravity-dependent body shape and posture changes. A hardware system will be custom built using a network of commercial off-the-shelf 3D sensors. The sensor parameters and settings will be optimized to detect the targeted body shape changes, specifically using body manikins of which the shape and size are iteratively permuted to simulate the known changes by fluid shift and spinal elongation. The capture volume will be also matched for a range of body sizes from a 1st percentile female to 99th percentile male. Unintentional body motions or floating in microgravity will be also simulated and incorporated. A data acquisition software will be developed for efficient in-flight operations with minimal overhead and easy-to-use user interface. A simplified calibration procedure will be designed for robust scanning against frequent vibration or unexpected sensor position shifts. The system will be tested in the ground laboratory for accuracy and reliability against a reference scanning system. New anthropometry measurements will be also identified to sensitively capture the gravity dependent body shape changes, in addition to the traditional anthropometry measurements. A novel landmark-based technique will be tested for consistent anthropometry measurements across posture variations. If successfully developed and deployed, the new system is expected to provide previously unavailable body shape and size data from different gravitational environments, including 0-g, 1/6-g, and 1-g. Such data can improve suit fit, habitat design, exercise efficacy quantification and sizing of orthostatic intolerance garments.

K H Kim↗

NASA NTRS2024

3D Scanning System to Assess Gravity-Dependent Body Shape Changes

The human body shows unique physiological and morphological changes when exposed to different gravity conditions, including muscle atrophy, fluid shift, spinal elongation, and body posture adjustments. Such changes need to be incorporated for human-system integration in the vehicle habitat, garment, and spacesuit designs, as inaccurate body measurements can result in suboptimal crew protection that can potentially decrease injury tolerance. However, the traditional linear measurements, such as stature, segment lengths or circumferences measured using a caliper or tape measure, often show limited consistency and are unable to capture the nonlinear characteristics of the human body. While 3D body scanning can provide significant advantages over linear measurements, the technologies have not been fully developed or customized for in-flight scanning. For ground laboratory use, several different scanner types are commercially available. However, in-flight scanning requires additional technical considerations, such as minimal scan time, simplified calibration, and sufficient capture volume. This work aims to develop a prototype 3-D body scanning system that is customized for in-flight use to scan crewmembers, with the configuration and performance optimized for detecting known gravity-dependent body shape and posture changes. A hardware system will be custom built using a network of commercial off-the-shelf 3D sensors. The sensor parameters and settings will be optimized to detect the targeted body shape changes, specifically using body manikins of which the shape and size are iteratively permuted to simulate the known changes by fluid shift and spinal elongation. The capture volume will be also matched for a range of body sizes from a 1st percentile female to 99th percentile male. Unintentional body motions or floating in microgravity will be also simulated and incorporated. A data acquisition software will be developed for efficient in-flight operations with minimal overhead and easy-to-use user interface. A simplified calibration procedure will be designed for robust scanning against frequent vibration or unexpected sensor position shifts. The system will be tested in the ground laboratory for accuracy and reliability against a reference scanning system. New anthropometry measurements will be also identified to sensitively capture the gravity dependent body shape changes, in addition to the traditional anthropometry measurements. A novel landmark-based technique will be tested for consistent anthropometry measurements across posture variations. If successfully developed and deployed, the new system is expected to provide previously unavailable body shape and size data from different gravitational environments, including 0-g, 1/6-g, and 1-g. Such data can improve suit fit, habitat design, exercise efficacy quantification and sizing of orthostatic intolerance garments.

K H Kim↗

NASA NTRS1987

Telerobotics - Display, control, and communication problems

An experimental telerobotics simulation is described suitable for studying human operator (HO) performance. Simple manipulator pick-and-place and tracking tasks allowed quantitative comparison of a number of calligraphic display viewing conditions. An enhanced perspective display was effective with a reference line from target to base, with or without a complex three-dimensional grid framing the view. This was true especially if geometrical display parameters such as azimuth and elevation were arranged to be near optimal. Quantitative comparisons were made possible, utilizing control performance measures such as root mean square error. There was a distinct preference for controlling the manipulator in end-effector Cartesian space for the primitive pick-and-place task, rather than controlling joint angles and then, via direct kinematis, the end-effector position. An introduced communication delay was found to produce decrease in performance. In considerable part, this difficulty could be compensated for by preview control information. The fact that neurological control of normal human movement contains a sampled data period of 0.2 s may relate to this robustness of HO control to delay.

Stark, Lawrence↗

NASA NTRS2008

Sensor Selection and Data Validation for Reliable Integrated System Health Management

For new access to space systems with challenging mission requirements, effective implementation of integrated system health management (ISHM) must be available early in the program to support the design of systems that are safe, reliable, highly autonomous. Early ISHM availability is also needed to promote design for affordable operations; increased knowledge of functional health provided by ISHM supports construction of more efficient operations infrastructure. Lack of early ISHM inclusion in the system design process could result in retrofitting health management systems to augment and expand operational and safety requirements; thereby increasing program cost and risk due to increased instrumentation and computational complexity. Having the right sensors generating the required data to perform condition assessment, such as fault detection and isolation, with a high degree of confidence is critical to reliable operation of ISHM. Also, the data being generated by the sensors needs to be qualified to ensure that the assessments made by the ISHM is not based on faulty data. NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing technologies for sensor selection and data validation as part of the FDDR (Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Response) element of the Upper Stage project of the Ares 1 launch vehicle development. This presentation will provide an overview of the GRC approach to sensor selection and data quality validation and will present recent results from applications that are representative of the complexity of propulsion systems for access to space vehicles. A brief overview of the sensor selection and data quality validation approaches is provided below. The NASA GRC developed Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4) is a model-based procedure for systematically and quantitatively selecting an optimal sensor suite to provide overall health assessment of a host system. S4 can be logically partitioned into three major subdivisions: the knowledge base, the down-select iteration, and the final selection analysis. The knowledge base required for productive use of S4 consists of system design information and heritage experience together with a focus on components with health implications. The sensor suite down-selection is an iterative process for identifying a group of sensors that provide good fault detection and isolation for targeted fault scenarios. In the final selection analysis, a statistical evaluation algorithm provides the final robustness test for each down-selected sensor suite. NASA GRC has developed an approach to sensor data qualification that applies empirical relationships, threshold detection techniques, and Bayesian belief theory to a network of sensors related by physics (i.e., analytical redundancy) in order to identify the failure of a given sensor within the network. This data quality validation approach extends the state-of-the-art, from red-lines and reasonableness checks that flag a sensor after it fails, to include analytical redundancy-based methods that can identify a sensor in the process of failing. The focus of this effort is on understanding the proper application of analytical redundancy-based data qualification methods for onboard use in monitoring Upper Stage sensors.

Garg, Sanjay↗

NASA NTRS1999

Technology Maturity Towards Highly Reusable Space Transportation Goals

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) has advanced key propulsion and launch vehicle systems technologies towards enabling the concepts identified by the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) Study as having significant potential for reducing the cost of access to space. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) manages the ASTP for the NASA Aero-Space Technology Enterprise. The HRST Study was conducted from 1995 through 1997 to evaluated launch concepts with the potential to reduce launch cost to $100 to $200 per pound of payload to low Earth orbit in the 2016 to 2022 timeframe. The HRST represents a generation of launch vehicles beyond the Lockheed-Martin VentureStar concept with a goal of another factor of ten reduction in launch cost below the next generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. Several concepts were developed and evaluated during the initial HRST studies. At the completion of the concept development phase in 1997, four task forces were formed to integrate the results of the study. These task forces were System Concept Definition, Operations Assessment. Cost Assessment and Technology Assessment. The Operations Assessment task force published its final report in November 1998. The Operations Assessment task force evaluated both single stage to orbit (SSTO) and two-stage to orbit (TSTO) concepts. SSTO concepts included horizontal takeoff and horizontal landing, vertical takeoff and vertical landing and vertical takeoff and horizontal landing. Horizontally launched concepts including launch assist options. SSTO concepts included airbreathing and all rocket as well as combination propulsion systems. The Operations Assessment considered the significance of performance margin, flight rate capability, reliability, launch assist, design optimization and technology development. These studies serve as a guide for the ASTP to prioritize technology development towards future highly reusable launch systems. Although the ASTP supports the development of technology that is focused at a near term fully reusable launch vehicle, the core of the technology development is looking ahead to future generations of launch vehicles that will enable dramatic growth in civil and commercial space enterprise. The primary focus of the paper is to status the key enabling technologies including rocket based combined cycle (RBCC) propulsion, magnetic launch assist, long life, low weight rocket propulsion, integral hot structures. robust thermal protection systems and integrated vehicle health management. The ASTP technology roadmap is leading rapidly towards system demonstration and eventual future X vehicle flight demonstrations.

Lyles, Garry↗

NASA NTRS1997

On the Use of Statistics in Design and the Implications for Deterministic Computer Experiments

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design -- using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-to-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Radius of Curvature Estimation and Control for the Hobby-Eberly Telescope

A system, which estimates the global radius of curvature (GroC) and corrects for changes in GroC on a segmented primary mirror has been developed for and verified on McDonald Observatory's Hobby Eberly Telescope (HET). The GroC estimation and control system utilizes HET's primary mirror control (PMC) system and the Segment Alignment Maintenance System (SAMS), an inductive edge sensor system. A special set of boundary conditions is applied to the derivation of the optimal edge match control. The special boundary conditions allow the further derivation of an observer, which enables estimation and control of the Groc mode to within HET's specification. The magnitude of the GroC mode can then be controlled despite the inability of the SAMS edge sensor system, by itself, to observe or control the GroC mode. The observer can be extended to any segmented mirror telescope. It will be shown that the observer improves with accuracy as the number of segments increases. This paper presents the mathematical theory of the observer. Simulation results will demonstrate the inherent accuracy and robustness of the system. Performance verification data from the HET will be presented.

Rakoczy, John↗

NASA NTRS2017

Surface Characterization of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers by Picosecond Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Adhesive bonding of composite materials requires reliable monitoring and detection of surface contaminants as part of a vigorous quality control process to assure robust and durable bonded structures. Surface treatment and effective monitoring prior to bonding are essential in order to obtain a surface which is free from contaminants that may lead to inferior bond quality. In this study, the focus is to advance the laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique by using pulse energies below 100 μJ (μLIBS) for the detection of low levels of silicone contaminants in carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites. Various CFRP surface conditions were investigated by LIBS using ∼10 ps, 355 nm laser pulses with pulse energies below 30 μJ. Time-resolved analysis was conducted to optimize the gate delay and gate width for the detection of the C I emission line at 247.9 nm to monitor the epoxy resin matrix of CFRP composites and the Si I emission line at 288.2 nm for detection of silicone contaminants in CFRP. To study the surface sensitivity to silicone contamination, CFRP surfaces were coated with polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), the active ingredient in many mold release agents. The presence of PDMS was studied by inspecting the Si I emission lines at 251.6 nm and 288.2 nm. The measured PDMS areal densities ranged from 0.15 to 2 μg/cm(sup 2). LIBS measurements were performed before and after laser surface ablation. The results demonstrate the successful detection of PDMS thin layers on CFRP using picosecond μLIBS.

Rodolfo Ledesma↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Remote Sensing of Atmospheric Temperature, Water Vapor, Trace Gases, Cloud, and Surface Properties on Daily and Decadal Time Scales

Hyperspectral IR sounders such as AIRS on Aqua, CrIS on S-NPP, NOAA20 and JPSS-2, IASI on Metop A, B, and C provide high-quality atmospheric temperature, water, vapor, and greenhouse gas vertical profiles. Additionally, they provide atmospheric cloud properties, surface emissivity, and surface skin temperatures. We have developed two algorithms which can consistently derive these products from multiple IR sounders. The first one is a Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SIFSAP) algorithm and the second one is a Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) algorithm. The SiFSAP algorithm performs one retrieval for each FOV using an all-sky optimal estimation approach. The core of the SiFSAP algorithm is an accurate and fast Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM), which can calculate hyperspectral radiance spectra under both clear and cloudy conditions. The PCRTM was developed in the past decade using consistent reference line-by-line radiative transfer model and spectroscopy for hyperspectral sounders such as AIRS, CrIS, IASI, NAST-I, and S-HIS. The ClimFiSP algorithm, which performs retrievals from spatiotemporally averaged L1 hyperspectral radiances directly, will be orders of magnitude faster than traditional method. he ClimFiSP algorithm uses consistent radiative kernels and a robust spectral fingerprinting method. It provides accurate data climate data fusion products from multiple satellite sensors. Both SiFSAP and ClimFiSP will be available at NASA GES DISC data center for public access.

Xu Liu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of Radiative Transfer Models and Retrieval Algorithms for Satellite Remote Sensors

Hyperspectral IR sounders such as AIRS on Aqua, CrIS on S-NPP, NOAA20 and JPSS-2, IASI on Metop A, B, and C provide high-quality atmospheric temperature, water, vapor, and greenhouse gas vertical profiles. Additionally, they provide atmospheric cloud properties, surface emissivity, and surface skin temperatures. We have developed two algorithms which can consistently derive these products from multiple IR sounders. The first one is a Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SIFSAP) algorithm and the second one is a Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) algorithm. The SiFSAP algorithm performs one retrieval for each FOV using an all-sky optimal estimation approach. The core of the SiFSAP algorithm is an accurate and fast Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM), which can calculate hyperspectral radiance spectra under both clear and cloudy conditions. The PCRTM was developed in the past decade using consistent reference line-by-line radiative transfer model and spectroscopy for hyperspectral sounders such as AIRS, CrIS, IASI, NAST-I, and S-HIS. The ClimFiSP algorithm, which performs retrievals from spatiotemporally averaged L1 hyperspectral radiances directly, will be orders of magnitude faster than traditional method. he ClimFiSP algorithm uses consistent radiative kernels and a robust spectral fingerprinting method. It provides accurate data climate data fusion products from multiple satellite sensors. Both SiFSAP and ClimFiSP will be available at NASA GES DISC data center for public access.

Xu Liu↗

NASA NTRS1991

Commercial Capaciflector

A capacitive proximity/tactile sensor with unique performance capabilities ('capaciflector' or capacitive reflector) is being developed by NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for use on robots and payloads in space in the interests of safety, efficiency, and ease of operation. Specifically, this sensor will permit robots and their attached payloads to avoid collisions in space with humans and other objects and to dock these payloads in a cluttered environment. The sensor is simple, robust, and inexpensive to manufacture with obvious and recognized commercial possibilities. Accordingly, NASA/GSFC, in conjunction with industry, is embarking on an effort to 'spin' this technology off into the private sector. This effort includes prototypes aimed at commercial applications. The principles of operation of these prototypes are described along with hardware, software, modelling, and test results. The hardware description includes both the physical sensor in terms of a flexible printed circuit board and the electronic circuitry. The software description will include filtering and detection techniques. The modelling will involve finite element electric field analysis and will underline techniques used for design optimization.

Vranish, John M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

X-Ray Polarization Capabilities of a Small Explorer Mission

X-ray polarization measurements hold great promise for studying the geometry and emission mechanisms in the strong gravitational and magnetic fields that surround black holes and neutron stars. In spite of this, the observational situation remains very limited; the last instrument dedicated to X-ray polarimetry flew decades ago on OSO-8, and the few recent measurements have been made by instruments optimized for other purposes. However, the technical capabilities to greatly advance the observational situation are in hand. Recent developments in micro-pattern gas detectors allow use of the polarization sensitivity of the photo-electric effect, which is the dominant interaction in the band above 2 keV. We present the scientific and technical requirements for an X-ray polarization observatory consistent with the scope of a NASA Small Explorer (SMEX) mission, along with a representative catalog of what the observational capabilities and expected sensitivities for the first year of operation could be. The mission is based on the technically robust design of the Gravity and Extreme Magnetism SMEX (GEMS) which completed a Phase B study and Preliminary Design Review in 2012. The GEMS mission is enabled by time projection detectors sensitive to the photo-electric effect. Prototype detectors have been designed, and provide engineering and performance data which support the mission design. The detectors are further characterized by low background, modest spectral resolution, and sub-millisecond timing resolution. The mission also incorporates high efficiency grazing incidence X-ray mirrors, design features that reduce systematic errors (identical telescopes at different azimuthal angles with respect to the look axis, and mounted on a rotating spacecraft platform), and a moderate capability to perform Target of Opportunity observations. The mission operates autonomously in a low earth, low inclination orbit with one to ten downlinks per day and one or more uplinks per week. Data and calibration products will be made available through the High Energy Astrophysics Science and Archival Research Center (HEASARC).

GEMS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Dynamics Conceptual Design Exploration of Multirotor eVTOL

The advent of electric propulsion is revolutionizing the paradigm of rotorcraft design, leading to new electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft. Direct drive topologies are common within these new designs, and some designers have chosen to utilize this mechanism for Primary Flight Control (PFC), effectively utilizing the aircraft engines as PFC actuators to control the speed of the rotors. This decision integrates the propulsion and flight control systems, and intrinsically couples the aircraft sizing and control. Four separate tools were exercised throughout this study to conduct a conceptual design exploration of eVTOL aircraft handling qualities. The main tasks for these tools were: 1) aircraft sizing and performance analysis, including the calculation of trim; 2) flight dynamics modeling and analysis; 3) handling qualities-centric control law optimization; and 4) electric motor sizing. Sizing of an RPM- controlled Hexacopter concept explored the dependency of aircraft size to fundamental design parameters: 1) disk loading and 2) blade loading coefficient. Increasing the design disk loading resulted in designs with high agility, but at the cost of significant growth in the design gross weight. Finally, Categories II and III pilot-induced-oscillation (PIO) are known potentially-catastrophic handling qualities deficiencies of fly-by-wire flight control systems such as those expected of eVTOL aircraft. Consideration of PIO predictive metrics in conceptual design control synthesis led to increased PIO robustness.

Flight Dynamics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software

The Porous Microstructure Analysis (PuMA) software was developed to provide a robust and efficient framework for computing material properties based on their microstructures. The development was motivated by advancements in X-ray microtomography, an imaging technology that can resolve the structure of a material at a sub-micron scale, in 3D and even in 4D (over time). PuMA provides the capability of computing a comprehensive spectrum of properties, from the most fundamental geometric features of a microstructure, to advanced anisotropic thermo-elastic properties. In addition, the software can generate artificial microstructures, ranging from simple analytical shapes to complex fibrous woven and non- woven geometries, which can be used in performance optimization studies. This presentation will highlight many of the capabilities of the recent open-source release.

microtomography↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

All-sky Retrieval of Atmospheric Temperature, Water Vapor, Clouds, Trace Gases, and Surface Properties from Operational Hyperspectral IR Sounders

Operational IR sounders such AIRS, CrIS, and IASI provide high quality hyperspectral measurements for weather and climate applications. We will describe a new all-sky Single Field-of-view Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP). The uniqueness of this product is that it uses all available channels from hyperspectral sounders and the optimal estimation retrieval is done at a single FOV spatial resolution. The SiFSAP includes atmospheric temperature, water vapor, clouds, trace gases, surface skin, and surface emissivity and will be produced operationally at NASA GES DISC. We will describe the core component of the SiFSAP algorithm, which is the Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM), and will show example applications of the SiFSAP product for various atmospheric weather and dynamics studies. We also describe a new Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP), which is derived from spatiotemporally averaged level-1 hyperspectral radiances directly. The ClimFiSP algorithm uses consistent radiative kernels and a robust spectral fingerprinting method. It provides fast and accurate data fusion products from multiple satellite sensors. We have applied this method to both AIRS and CrIS (on SNPP and on NOAA 20) data and generated two decades climate data records for atmospheric temperature, water vapor, cloud, trace gases, and surface skin temperature. The ClimFiSP are being transitioned to NASA data centers for routine generations level-3 products.

pcrtm↗

NASA NTRS2021

USA Crop Yield Estimation with MODIS NDVI: Are Remotely Sensed Models Better Than Simple Trend Analyses?

Crop yield forecasting is performed monthly during the growing season by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The underpinnings are long-established probability surveys reliant on farmers’ feedback in parallel with biophysical measurements. Over the last decade though, satellite imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been used to corroborate the survey information. This is facilitated through the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies/Global Agricultural Monitoring system, which provides open access to pertinent real-time normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. Hence, two relatively straightforward MODIS-based modeling methods are employed operationally. The first model constitutes mid-season timing based on the maximum peak NDVI value, while the second is reflective of late-season timing by integrating accumulated NDVI over a threshold value. Corn model results nationally show the peak NDVI method provides a R^(2) of 0.88 and a coefficient of variation (CV) of 3.5%. The accumulated method, using an optimally derived 0.58 NDVI threshold, improves the performance to 0.93 and 2.7%, respectively. Both these models outperform simple trend analysis, which is 0.48 and 7.4%, correspondingly. For soybeans the R^(2) results of the peak NDVI model are 0.62, and 0.73 for the accumulated using a 0.56 threshold. CVs are 6.8% and 5.7%, respectively. Spring wheat’s R2performance with the accumulated NDVI model is 0.60 but just 0.40 with peak NDVI. The soybean and spring wheat models perform similarly to trend analysis. Winter wheat and upland cotton show poor model performance, regardless of method. Ultimately, corn yield forecasting derived from MODIS imagery is robust, and there are circumstances when forecasts for soybeans and spring wheat have merit too.

crop yield↗

NASA NTRS1996

Design of Composite Structures Using Knowledge-Based and Case Based Reasoning

A method of using knowledge based and case based reasoning to assist designers during conceptual design tasks of composite structures was proposed. The cooperative use of heuristics, procedural knowledge, and previous similar design cases suggests a potential reduction in design cycle time and ultimately product lead time. The hypothesis of this work is that the design process of composite structures can be improved by using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) and Knowledge-Based (KB) reasoning in the early design stages. The technique of using knowledge-based and case-based reasoning facilitates the gathering of disparate information into one location that is easily and readily available. The method suggests that the inclusion of downstream life-cycle issues into the conceptual design phase reduces potential of defective, and sub-optimal composite structures. Three industry experts were interviewed extensively. The experts provided design rules, previous design cases, and test problems. A Knowledge Based Reasoning system was developed using the CLIPS (C Language Interpretive Procedural System) environment and a Case Based Reasoning System was developed using the Design Memory Utility For Sharing Experiences (MUSE) xviii environment. A Design Characteristic State (DCS) was used to document the design specifications, constraints, and problem areas using attribute-value pair relationships. The DCS provided consistent design information between the knowledge base and case base. Results indicated that the use of knowledge based and case based reasoning provided a robust design environment for composite structures. The knowledge base provided design guidance from well defined rules and procedural knowledge. The case base provided suggestions on design and manufacturing techniques based on previous similar designs and warnings of potential problems and pitfalls. The case base complemented the knowledge base and extended the problem solving capability beyond the existence of limited well defined rules. The findings indicated that the technique is most effective when used as a design aid and not as a tool to totally automate the composites design process. Other areas of application and implications for future research are discussed.

Lambright, Jonathan Paul↗