NASA Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Best Practices Handbook
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The results are presented of an experimental study undertaken to assess the improvement in program quality by using formal specifications. Specifications in the Z notation were developed for a simple but realistic antimissile system. These specifications were then used to develop 2 versions in C by 2 programmers. Another set of 3 versions in Ada were independently developed from informal specifications in English. A comparison of the reliability and complexity of the resulting programs suggests the advantages of using formal specifications in terms of number of errors detected and fault avoidance.
The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.
The integrated application of reliability, failure effects and system simulator methods in establishing the airworthiness of a flight critical digital flight control system (DFCS) is demonstrated. The emphasis was on the mutual reinforcement of the methods in demonstrating the system safety.
Efforts to determine whether rocket propellant density and modulus can be reliably measured using non-destructive ultrasonic techniques are reported. The objective was not achieved, primarily due to the approach taken.
NASA's goal of safe, affordable space transportation calls for increased reliability and lifetimes of launch vehicles, and significant reductions of launch costs. The areas targeted for enhanced performance in the next generation of reusable launch vehicles include combustion chambers and nozzle ramps; therefore, the search is on for suitable liner materials for these components. GRCop-84 (Cu-8Cr-4Nb), an advanced copper alloy developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center in conjunction with Case Western Reserve University, is a candidate. The current liner of the Space Shuttle Main Engine is another copper alloy, NARloy-Z (Cu-3Ag-0.1Zr). It provides a benchmark against which to compare the properties of candidate successors. The thermomechanical properties of GRCop-84 have been shown to be superior, and its physical properties comparable, to those of NARloy-Z. However, environmental durability issues control longevity in this application: because copper oxide scales are not highly protective, most copper alloys are quickly consumed in oxygen environments at elevated temperatures. In consequence, NARloy-Z and most other copper alloys are prone to blanching, a degradation process that occurs through cycles of oxidation-reduction as the oxide is repeatedly formed and removed because of microscale fluctuations in the oxygen-hydrogen fuel systems of rocket engines. The Space Shuttle Main Engine lining typically degraded by blanching-induced hot spots that lead to surface roughening, pore formation, and coolant leakage. Therefore, resistance to oxidation and blanching are key requirements for second-generation reusable launch vehicle liners. The rocket engine ambient includes H2 (fuel) and H2O (combustion product) and is, hence, under reduced oxygen partial pressures. Accordingly, our studies were expanded to include oxygen partial pressures as low as 322 parts per million (ppm) at the temperatures likely to be experienced in service. A comparison of 10-hr weight gains of GRCop-84, NARloy-Z, and pure copper in 0.032, 2.2, and 100 percent oxygen from 550 to 750 C is shown. In 2.2 vol% and higher oxygen content, GRCop-84 oxidation was slower than that of NARloy-Z or Cu, but that advantage was lost or diminished in 322-ppm O2. Over longer (50-hr) exposures in 1.0 atm O2, however, the advantage of GRCop-84 increased significantly, its oxidation rate becoming approximately 10 times slower than those of Cu and NARloy-Z from 500 to 700 C. Weight gains were moderate and the kinetics parabolic for all three materials in 2.2 vol% and higher oxygen content; however, in 322-ppm O2, the scales were nonprotective below about 650 C, as reflected in linear kinetics and large weight gains. The superior oxidation resistance of GRCop-84 is likely related to the kinetics of extra oxygen consumption to form the additional oxides of Cr and Nb detected beneath the GRCop-84 oxide layer. While we continue to evaluate the blanching resistance of GRCop-84 in other tests, these oxidation results indicate that GRCop-84 is suitable as a reusable launch vehicle liner, and in applications where it is desired to use a copper alloy but without the risk of oxidative failure. Three bar charts comparing overall specific weight gains by each of the three materials studied. The top chart is for oxidation in 1.0 atm of oxygen, the middle is for 2.2% oxygen (balance argon), and the bottom is for 0.0322% oxygen. GRCop-84 outperforms the other two materials, showing the least weight gain in nearly all cases.
Crow-AMSAA (CA) plots are used to model reliability growth. Use of CA plots has expanded into other areas, such as tracking events of interest to management, maintenance problems, and safety mishaps. Safety mishaps can often be successfully modeled using a Poisson probability distribution. CA plots show a Poisson process in log-log space. If the safety mishaps are a stable homogenous Poisson process, a linear fit to the points in a CA plot will have a slope of one. Slopes of greater than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with increasing occurrence. Slopes of less than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with decreasing occurrence. Changes in slope, known as "cusps," indicate a change in process, which could be an improvement or a degradation. After presenting the CA conceptual framework, examples are given of trending slips, trips and falls, and ergonomic incidents at NASA (from Agency-level data). Crow-AMSAA plotting is a robust tool for trending safety mishaps that can provide insight into safety performance over time.
Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne, Inc., in cooperation with NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), has developed a new Advanced Health Management System (AHMS) controller for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) that will increase the probability of successfully placing the shuttle into the intended orbit and increase the safety of the Space Transportation System (STS) launches. The AHMS is an upgrade o the current Block II engine controller whose primary component is an improved vibration monitoring system called the Real-Time Vibration Monitoring System (RTVMS) that can effectively and reliably monitor the state of the high pressure turbomachinery and provide engine protection through a new synchronous vibration redline which enables engine shutdown if the vibration exceeds predetermined thresholds. The introduction of this system required improvements and modification to the Block II controller such as redesigning the Digital Computer Unit (DCU) memory and the Flight Accelerometer Safety Cut-Off System (FASCOS) circuitry, eliminating the existing memory retention batteries, installation of the Digital Signal Processor (DSP) technology, and installation of a High Speed Serial Interface (HSSI) with accompanying outside world connectors. Test stand hot-fire testing along with lab testing have verified successful implementation and is expected to reduce the probability of catastrophic engine failures during the shuttle ascent phase and improve safely by about 23% according to the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS), leading to a safer and more reliable SSME.
Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.
Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.
Digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems have a key role in nuclear power plants in the upgrade of aging analog systems. Digital systems improve plant safety and reliability through features such as increased hardware reliability and stability and improved failure detection capability. There is no consensus on which of the current probabilistic risk assessment methods are most suitable for use in the reliability analysis of digital I&C systems. While the traditional event-tree/fault-tree (ET/FT) approach is still used for their reliability modeling, there are concerns regarding this approach in properly accounting for dynamic interactions among system components since potentially significant dependencies among failure events may not be identified and/or their likelihood may not be properly quantified. Dynamic methodologies are expected to provide a much more accurate representation of probabilistic evolution of the I&C systems in time due to their capability to more properly account for complex interactions than the static approach. The applicability of dynamic PRA methodologies for digital I&C system is investigated using the criteria presented in the NUREG/CR-6901, and the comparisons made in NUREG/CR-6901 are updated in light of the latest studies. The Dynamic Event Tree (DET) approach has been identified as one of the top dynamic methods when evaluated against the requirements for the reliability modeling of digital I&C systems. The DET method is a strong candidate for integration into existing PRA studies, as it bears many similarities to the traditional ET approach. In this study, the DET approach has been applied to the Plant Protection System of the APR1400 design, and the results are compared to results from its available traditional ET/FT analysis. Possible approaches to evaluate and quantify the effects of common cause failures on system safety using dynamic methods are also examined.
The demand for carbon fibers and carbon fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRPs) is rapidly growing due to their outstanding mechanical properties and potential to enhance sustainability, particularly for lightweighting applications. However, carbon fibers are typically produced from fossil-based feedstocks, involve energy-intensive processes, and have limited options for sustainable end-of-life management or circularity. Despite these challenges, the energy demand and lifecycle environmental implications of their production remain poorly understood. Here, we conduct a critical literature review and meta-analysis of carbon fiber manufacturing, revealing significant variations in reported energy demand, carbon footprint, and lifecycle inventory data. Our analysis makes two novel contributions. First, we identify key underlying factors driving these variations. Second, we highlight that carbon fiber, far from being a homogeneous product, has grades varying substantially in mechanical properties, end-use markets, energy intensity of manufacturing processes, and therefore environmental impacts—an aspect often underrepresented in life cycle assessments. We assert that current data are insufficient for reliably evaluating environmental impacts, posing a risk of misleading decision-making. Addressing this gap requires new lifecycle inventory datasets clearly incorporating carbon fiber heterogeneity and key influencing factors identified in this study. Additionally, we propose actionable recommendations, including a checklist, to advance sustainability in the carbon fiber sector.
The concept of integrated sustainable product design has recently emerged, aiming to incorporate downstream life cycle performance into the initial product design to enhance sustainability. Various sustainable product design tools based on life cycle assessment or quality function deployment have been established while the impact of reliability on circular practices has received limited attention. Recognizing the critical role of product reliability in post-design performance, this paper develops a product design optimization model that considers the warranty performance and the effect of end-of-use options. The model takes into account the effect of uncertain operating conditions on product reliability. Two optimization goals including the minimization of expected unit life cycle cost and environmental impact are achieved by the model. To demonstrate the benefits of the integrated approach, the model is applied to an electric motor design problem. The results highlight that integrating end-of-use options in the early design phase leads to adjustments in component selection and reliability design. Moreover, the circular utilization of used products enables cost savings throughout the product’s life cycle and contributes to environmental impact reduction. Finally, the study analyzes the effects of operating conditions, warranty policies, and take-back prices for used products on design decisions, providing valuable insights for product designers.
This is to present the NESC assessment "Recommendations on Use of Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Electrical, Electronic, and Electromechanical (EEE) Parts for NASA Missions" at the Microelectronics Reliability and Qualification Workshop hosted by Aerospace Corporation in February 8-10, 2022. The assessment has two Phases, Phase I on NASA Center current practices on use of COTS and Phase II on DoD and FAA current practices on use of COTS and NESC guidance on COTS selection, application and verification processes. Phase I report was published as NASA/TM−20205011579 and NESC-RP-19-01490 in December 2020. The presentation also includes the scope of the Phase II of the assessment, which is expected to be completed in March-April, 2022.
In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.
This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.
Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.
Curtailment, or blanket curtailment, is a leading method to mitigate the impacts to bats from operating wind turbines. Although this strategy results in considerable decreases in bat fatalities, it also results in decreased energy production. In 2019, Natural Power was awarded funding by the Department of Energy to assess the readiness of the informed smart curtailment technology, EchoSense (formerly referred to as Detection and Active Response Curtailment, [DARC]). The research undertaken by this project expands the understanding of alternative methods, known as smart curtailment, to maintain a reduction in bat fatalities while simultaneously recovering lost energy associated with blanket curtailment. The overall project was composed of three major tasks; Task 1 was focused on cybersecurity compliance of the EchoSense system in accordance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation Critical Infrastructure Protection (“NERC CIP”) standards, Task 2 assessed the mechanical loads exerted on turbines when operating under a smart curtailment regime, and Task 3 assessed the efficacy of the EchoSense system at an operational wind farm. Regarding Task 1, an external review by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory determined that the EchoSense system did not create any new cybersecurity weaknesses and was compliant with the NERC CIP standards. As a result of this process, Natural Power developed some best practices (10.1) for wind- wildlife technology developers. In conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the results (10.2) of the loads testing demonstrated that the periodic curtailment and release of turbines by the EchoSense system did not have any detrimental impact on the mechanical components of a wind turbine (Task 2). During the late summer to fall of 2020 and 2021, Natural Power demonstrated that the use of the EchoSense smart curtailment system resulted in no significant difference in bat fatalities compared to blanket curtailment with cut-in speeds at 6.9 m/s (2020) and 5.0 m/s (2021) while resulting in a significant difference in decreased lost energy (Task 3). This translates to an average of 41% (2020) and 56% (2021) reduction in per turbine energy loss compared to blanket curtailment. The reduction in energy loss that would have been achieved by EchoSense curtailment compared to blanket curtailment, if applied across all 69 turbines, is roughly equivalent to having an additional turbine on site. These results are notable for finding a balance between the environmental impact of wind energy and the economic feasibility in energy production associated with mitigating that impact. https://www.naturalpower.com/us/expertise/service/engineering-operations/echosense