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At least 955 records · Page 53

Kalman estimation for SEDS measurements

The first on-orbit experiment of the Small Expendable Deployer System (SEDS) for tethered satellites will collect telemetry data for tethered length, rate of deployment, and tether tension. The post-flight analysis will use this data to reconstruct the deployment history and determine payload position and tether shape. Two Kalman estimator algorithms were written, and output using simulated measurement data was compared. Both estimators exhibited the same estimated state histories, indicating that numerical instability in the traditional algorithm was not the cause of filter divergence. Estimation of acceleration biases was added, which reduced the error but did not correct the divergence. An add-a-bead estimator that adds lumped masses as the tether is deployed was written, which provides a state model that matches the BEADSIM simulation providing the true measurements and states. This twenty-one bead estimator produced state histories similar to those of the two-bead estimator, indicating that the filter divergence was not caused by a reduced-order model. The noise models used to date are relatively simple and may be the source of estimator divergence. The investigation of colored noise models, cross-correlated measurement and process covariances, and noise-adaptive filter techniques is recommended.

Carrington, Connie K.↗

A Hybrid Multi-Scale Model of Crystal Plasticity for Handling Stress Concentrations

Microstructural effects become important at regions of stress concentrators such as notches, cracks and contact surfaces. A multiscale model is presented that efficiently captures microstructural details at such critical regions. The approach is based on a multiresolution mesh that includes an explicit microstructure representation at critical regions where stresses are localized. At regions farther away from the stress concentration, a reduced order model that statistically captures the effect of the microstructure is employed. The statistical model is based on a finite element representation of the orientation distribution function (ODF). As an illustrative example, we have applied the multiscaling method to compute the stress intensity factor K I around the crack tip in a wedge-opening load specimen. The approach is verified with an analytical solution within linear elasticity approximation and is then extended to allow modeling of microstructural effects on crack tip plasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis

Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.

Kim, Jae H.↗

Experimentally Validated Numerical Models of Non-Isothermal Turbulent Mixing in High Temperature Reactors

In the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR), the non-uniform heat generation and flow maldistribution of coolant in the core generates conditions leading into the lower plenum with many jets at different temperatures and velocities. The hope is that the combined flow becomes fully mixed in a short distance so that the fluctuating temperatures in the mixing region do not cause unwanted thermal stresses in the supporting structures. These cyclic thermal stresses can cause degradation of the wall microstructure including crack initiation and growth, ultimately leading to the fatigue failure in the lower plenum, and can be accelerated by the high temperature environment in the VHTR. The focus of this project was to provide experimental data for future validation of computational efforts aimed at capturing the turbulent mixing in the lower plenum. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is also used as part of this effort to assess the requirements to model fundamental flows with application to the lower plenum as well at the applied flow conditions that mimic the experimental facilities. These efforts will lay the groundwork for future incorporation of stress analysis as well as fatigue and failure studies for multiple VHTR components. An additional emphasis is placed on reduced order models (ROM) using canonical flows, which will help to balance computational expense and accuracy and enable future work in uncertainty quantification. The flow in the lower plenum is extremely complex with hundreds of cooling jets entering and then being forced to change directions by 90° while navigating through an array of cylindrical support posts. Generating experimental data for such a complicated flow is difficult, not to mention that the computational requirements to generate an adequate temporal and spatial sampling is extremely expensive and time consuming. Therefore, the ultimate focus of this research is a “unit cell” which consists of six jets in the presence of a crossflow, and seven cylindrical support posts. It is scaled to achieve similar ranges of key dimensionless numbers. This serves to mimic flow conditions in different regions of the lower plenum by adjusting velocities, temperatures, and orientations, and represents a compromise between the complexity inside the full-scale application and the ideal conditions of a more fundamental study. In addition to the unit cell experiments and simulations, the complex flows in the VHTR lower plenum are broken down into a number of simplified (in some cases even fundamental) flows, two of which are turbulent jets and flow past cylinders. Each of these are studied, computationally and experimentally for isothermal and non-isothermal conditions. Flows where trusted experimental data is available in the literature (e.g., turbulent free jet), additional experiments are not needed. The result of these efforts is a database of experimental data and multiple computational studies, which provide an outlook to the requirements, needed to capture turbulent mixing flow physics The ROM results provide assessments for appropriate resource-light models that balance accuracy with reduced computational burdens.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery

We consider the use of probabilistic neural networks for fluid flow surrogate modeling and data recovery. This framework is constructed by assuming that the target variables are sampled from a Gaussian distribution conditioned on the inputs. Consequently, the overall formulation sets up a procedure to predict the hyperparameters of this distribution which are then used to compute an objective function given training data. We demonstrate that this framework has the ability to provide for prediction confidence intervals based on the assumption of a probabilistic posterior, given an appropriate model architecture and adequate training data. The applicability of the present framework to cases with noisy measurements and limited observations is also assessed. To demonstrate the capabilities of this framework, we consider canonical regression problems of fluid dynamics from the viewpoint of reduced-order modeling and spatial data recovery for four canonical data sets. The examples considered in this study arise from (i) the shallow-water equations, (ii) a two-dimensional cylinder flow, (iii) the wake of a NACA0012 airfoil with a Gurney flap, and (iv) the NOAA sea surface temperature data set. Furthermore, the present results indicate that the probabilistic neural network not only produces a machine-learning-based fluid flow surrogate model but also systematically quantifies the uncertainty therein to assist with model interpretability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Effectiveness and nonlinear characterization of vibro-impact energy harvesting absorbers in controlling base-excited systems

In this study, model derivations are carried out of a dynamical system under base excitations with a piezoelectric energy harvesting absorber as the tuned-mass-damper. Additionally, amplitude stoppers are included to the absorber in order to create a broadband resonant response, increasing the window of operational use for energy harvesting and system's control. This study is unique in the fact that the energy harvester is coupled to the source of its excitation. A nonlinear reduced-order model is developed using Euler–Lagrange principle and the Galerkin method to accurately estimate the energy harvesting absorber's displacement, harvested power, and the oscillating response of the primary structure. The nonlinear interaction of the energy harvesting absorber and the amplitude stoppers are the focus of this study, where an in-depth investigation of bifurcation points of the primary structure and energy harvesting absorber responses is performed. Due to a transfer of energy between the primary structure and the absorber, it is shown that a soft stopper with stiffness $5 \times {10^3}\,{\text{N}}\;{{\text{m}}^{ - 1}}\,$ has great control of the primary structure with 60% of the uncontrolled amplitude being reduced, as well as an increase of the harvested energy. Medium stoppers with small initial gaps size and hard stoppers do not control the primary structure and show a decrease in the energy harvesting capabilities due to the activation of the nonlinear contact-impact interactions. Finally, these stoppers also generate aperiodic regions due to the possible presence of grazing bifurcations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Integrated Virtual Blast Furnace: Enabling Physics-Based Operational Guidance

As part of a DOE-supported research effort, Purdue University Northwest researchers are collaborating with Oak Ridge National Laboratory and United States Steel Corporation to develop a tool to provide blast furnace operators and engineers with process performance insight comparable to high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics modeling, accelerated to provide “what-if” scenarios at near-real-time speed. This is accomplished by pre-simulating a baseline case and a range of potential operating scenarios to establish how the furnace responds to changing inputs, then training a neural network-based Reduced Order Model to accelerate the speed at which predictions of key parameters can be generated.

Okosun, Tyamo↗

Computational Results for the KTH-NASA Wind-Tunnel Model Used for Acquisition of Transonic Nonlinear Aeroelastic Data

A status report is provided on the collaboration between the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Sweden and the NASA Langley Research Center regarding the aeroelastic analyses of a full-span fighter configuration wind-tunnel model. This wind-tunnel model was tested in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) in the summer of 2016. Large amounts of data were acquired including steady/unsteady pressures, accelerations, strains, and measured dynamic deformations. The aeroelastic analyses presented include linear aeroelastic analyses, CFD steady analyses, and analyses using CFD-based reduced-order models (ROMs).

Silva, Walter A.↗

Dynamic PRA-Based Estimation of PWR Coping Time Using a Surrogate Model for Accident Tolerant Fuel

In this study, we propose an interpolation-based response surface surrogate methodology to manage a large number of scenarios in dynamic probabilistic risk assessment. It adopts the shape Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to cluster the interpolation neighborhood from time series sample data. The interpolation method was adapted from Taylor Kriging to allow a reduced-order model of the Taylor series. In order to demonstrate its applicability to complex issues in risk assessment for nuclear engineering, an example risk response surface to estimate emergency core cooling system (ECCS) criteria for triplex silicon carbide (SiC) accident-tolerant fuel was constructed. The response surface was exploited to estimate the cumulative failure probability of the fuel cladding structure due to the uncertainties in operator actions and safety systems. The functional failures were assessed based on a combination of individual layer failures computed by coupling Risk Analysis Virtual Environment software with a pressurized water reactor 1000-MW(electric) RELAP5 model and the in-house fuel performance assessment module. Results showed that SiC cladding failure probability spiked less than 1 min after a large-break loss-of- coolant accident whenever the current ECCS criteria for Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) cladding was used. However, it still provides an increased safety margin of three orders of magnitude compared to Zr-4. This positive margin could be utilized to relax active ECCS requirements by allowing deviations of up to 450 s in its actuation time. The proposed surrogate methodology generated a response surface of SiC cladding failure probability reasonably well, with a significant savings of computation time. This methodology is expected to be useful in the analysis of system response with complex uncertainty sources.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Operation of Natural Gas Pipeline Networks With Storage Under Transient Flow Conditions

Here, we formulate a nonlinear optimal control problem for intraday operation of a natural gas pipeline network that includes storage reservoirs. The dynamics of compressible gas flow through pipes, compressors, reservoirs, and wells are considered. In particular, a reservoir is modeled as a rigid, hollow container that stores gas under isothermal conditions and uniform density, and a well is modeled as a vertical pipe. For each pipe, flow dynamics are described by a coupled partial differential equation (PDE) system in density and mass flux variables, with momentum dissipation modeled using the Darcy–Wiesbach friction approximation. Compressors are modeled as scaling up the pressure of gas between the inlet and outlet. The governing equations for all network components are spatially discretized and assembled into a nonlinear differential-algebraic equation (DAE) system, which synthesizes above-ground pipeline and subsurface reservoir dynamics into a single reduced-order model. We seek to maximize an objective function that quantifies economic profit and network efficiency subject to the flow equations and inequalities that represent operating limitations. The problem is solved using a primal–dual interior point solver, and the solutions are validated in computational experiments and simulations on several pipeline test networks to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Enhancements to Engineering-scale Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture Capabilities in Grizzly

The Grizzly code is being developed to model the effect of aging in nuclear power plant systems, components, and structures. A significant part of this effort has been to develop capabilites to model the effects of embrittlement in reactor pressure vessels on their integrity. This includes both modeling of microstructure and engineering property evolution, and engineering-scale probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. This report documents recent advances to the engineering-scale fracture mechanics capability for evaluation of RPV integrity under transient loading in Grizzly. These developments are in three areas: probabilistic fracture mechanics, general reduced order models for fracture a flaw locations, and improvments to the XFEM capability used in Grizzly for fracture mechanics analysis. The combination of these developments brings Grizzly closer to a state where it can be applied in production as a general tool for engineering-scale fracture mechanics analysis. The probabilistic fracture mechanics capabilities are included in the 1.5 testing version of Grizzly, and will be further refined in preparation for production use in the 2.0 released planned for fiscal year 2018.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Surrogates for Valve-Controlled Pipe Flow: Accelerating Nuclear Reactor Design

Neural surrogate models are developed to replace expensive steady-state RANS CFD simulations for valve-controlled pipe flow in nuclear reactor design. Using parametric CFD data generated with MOOSE Pronghorn across a range of valve geometry and flow conditions, three approaches are compared: a POD-based reduced-order model, a structured UNet on a cylindrical grid, and unstructured models (DeepONet and BiStride MeshGraphNet) on nondimensionalized point clouds. POD achieves the highest accuracy (99%) with fast inference but requires storing all solution snapshots, while the DeepONet and BSMS-GNN both achieve ~89% accuracy at sub-second inference, with the BSMS-GNN offering superior geometric generalizability. These surrogates enable rapid ranking of candidate valve designs and can warm-start CFD solvers to accelerate convergence, supporting agentic design iteration on the Prometheus platform.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Predictive machine learning approaches for the microstructural behavior of multiphase zirconium alloys

Abstract Zirconium alloys are widely used in harsh environments characterized by high temperatures, corrosivity, and radiation exposure. These alloys, which have a hexagonal closed packed (h.c.p.) structure thermo-mechanically degrade, when exposed to severe operating environments due to hydride formation. These hydrides have a different crystalline structure, than the matrix, which results in a multiphase alloy. To accurately model these materials at the relevant physical scale, it is necessary to fully characterize them based on a microstructural fingerprint, which is defined here as a combination of features that include hydride geometry, parent and hydride texture and crystalline structure of these multiphase alloys. Hence, this investigation will develop a reduced order modeling approach, where this microstructural fingerprint is used to predict critical fracture stress levels that are physically consistent with microstructural deformation and fracture modes. Machine Learning (ML) methodologies based on Gaussian Process Regression, random forests, and multilayer perceptrons (MLP) were used to predict material fracture critical stress states. MLPs, or neural networks, had the highest accuracy on held-out test sets across three predetermined strain levels of interest. Hydride orientation, grain orientation or texture, and hydride volume fraction had the greatest effect on critical fracture stress levels and had partial dependencies that were highly significant, and in comparison hydride length and hydride spacing have less effects on fracture stresses. Furthermore, these models were also used accurately predicted material response to nominal applied strains as a function of the microstructural fingerprint.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Closed-form Grammians and model reduction for flexible space structures

Analytical expression are derived for the Grammians of a model in modal coordinates for the dynamics of a flexible space structure (FSS). These exact results provide insight into the dynamics of such systems and reduce the known approximate expressions in the case of lightly damped, widely separated modes. A novel algorithm is outlined that uses these to compute a dominant reduced-order model for such a system in an efficient manner.

Williams, Trevor↗

Parametric Study to Assess Technical Prospect Feasibility for Offshore CO 2 Storage

This report is a white paper on the parametric study to assess technical prospect feasibility for CO 2 storage with and without CO 2 -EOR. The SECARB Offshore GOM team reviewed key parameters that previous modeling experience suggests have the largest impact on CO 2 plume size and CO 2 -EOR performance (SSEB, 2019) These parameters include tectonic impacts (reservoir dip and fault block size), reservoir properties (permeability) and development strategies (well field payout, waterflood, and CO 2 flooding strategies). These parameters are further evaluated in this study in order to identify upper and lower boundary conditions for the parametric values. The boundary conditions are needed to set constraints for key parameters when performing modeling assessments. Understanding the key parametric values for the GOM will facilitate locating successful offshore carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) projects in terms of plume size, CO 2 stored and, in the case of EOR, oil recovery. Importantly, this white paper focuses on both technical factors (geologic and engineering), but does not address economic, commercial, or stakeholder considerations. The report is organized into four sections and includes a review of the datasets used to define the parameter ranges, the results of a full-physics reservoir simulation, a summary of a reduced order modeling approach to evaluate the impact of the study parameters, and, finally, a discussion of the work that will occur during the next phase of the project.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Enabling scientific machine learning in MOOSE using Libtorch

A neural-network-based machine learning interface has been developed for the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The interface relies on Libtorch, the C++ front-end of PyTorch, and enables an online interaction between modern machine learning algorithms and all the existing simulation, modeling, and analysis processes available in MOOSE. New capabilities in MOOSE include the native generation and training of artificial neural networks together with options to load pretrained neural networks in TorchScript format. Furthermore, the MOOSE stochastic tools module (MOOSE-STM) has been enhanced with neural network-based surrogate and reduced-order model generation options for efficient stochastic analyses. Lastly, a reinforcement learning capability has been added to MOOSE-STM for the interactive control and optimization of complex multiphysics problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Efficient, Globally Convergent Method for Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Adaptive Model Reduction and Sparse Grids

We present a new approach to efficiently solve optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain coefficients. The method leverages two sources of inexactness that trade accuracy for speed: (1) stochastic collocation based on dimension-adaptive sparse grids (SGs), which approximates the stochastic objective function with a limited number of quadrature nodes, and (2) projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs), which generate efficient approximations to PDE solutions. These two sources of inexactness lead to inexact objective function and gradient evaluations, which are managed by a trust-region method that guarantees global convergence by adaptively refining the SG and ROM until a proposed error indicator drops below a tolerance specified by trust-region convergence theory. A key feature of the proposed method is that the error indicator---which accounts for errors incurred by both the SG and ROM---must be only an asymptotic error bound, i.e., a bound that holds up to an arbitrary constant that need not be computed. This allows the approach to be applicable to a wide range of problems, including those where sharp, computable error bounds are not available; this distinguishes the proposed method from previous works. Numerical experiments performed on a model problem from optimal flow control under uncertainty verify global convergence of the method and demonstrate the method's ability to outperform previously proposed alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗