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IAEA Initiatives that Integrate Stakeholders, Models and Decision Making - 18646

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has initiated an effort to provide stakeholder support services as part of Phase II of the Constraints to Implementing Decommissioning and Environmental Remediation (CIDER II) programs. The intent of this sub-group of CIDER II is to provide members states support in areas of stakeholder communication, engagement and participation, with the goal of building trust in decommissioning and environmental remediation (D and ER) decisions for radioactive contamination and facilities. IAEA has also initiated a follow-on effort to address Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA II), which is aimed at enhancing the capabilities of Member States to simulate radionuclide transfer in the environment, and to ensure appropriate levels of protection from ionizing radiation. Working Group 1 of MODARIA II is focused on the integration of modeling and decision analysis. These two groups have complementary and supporting objectives, which provides an opportunity for collaboration and mutual benefit. The technical integrator is the approach of structured decision making, which follows a five-step process that combines stakeholder values with models through a technically defensible decision analysis. Briefly, the steps are: 1. Provide the context and decision context for the problem; 2. Obtain costs, values and concerns from stakeholders, to develop objectives that need to be achieved (e.g., improve human health, minimize costs, increase jobs); 3. Identify options that might achieve the objectives (e.g., cleanup, institutional controls, education); 4. Develop probabilistic models that connect options to objectives so that the objectives can be evaluated collectively (e.g., a fate and transport and risk model to address the objective of reducing human health risk, a cost model to address costs of taking action); and, 5. Model evaluation, including sensitivity analysis, to determine if an action can be taken with sufficient certainty, or if collection of more data is needed to decrease uncertainty before a decision is made. This approach also supports adaptive management as new data are collected. This approach clarifies the roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts in the decision-making process, where stakeholders specify values, and subject matter experts focus on the models that are needed to evaluate the options. It also provides a technically defensible, reproducible, transparent and traceable approach to all of the components necessary to properly solve the types of complex decision problems that plague radioactive waste management, decommissioning and environmental remediation. This paper introduces the major challenges to implementing such a broad scale of decision analysis, and approaches to overcoming those challenges, which include not only the technical challenges, but also the need to develop capacity in a range of skills not usually accommodated in environmental modeling and includes the need for the IAEA to address decision making in different countries, and with different cultures, religions, political affiliations, and languages. This paper explores the potential for IAEA to benefit from both the CIDER II and MODARIA II programs, and hence to develop a fully integrated approach to effective decision making for radioactive waste management and environmental remediation. Note that there are many people involved in these efforts at the IAEA, and credit belongs to those people for the progress that has been made to date. Our intent here is simply to introduce these IAEA programs at the WM2018 Symposium to provide our perspective and some awareness of some of the directions in which IAEA appears to be headed regarding stakeholder engagement, environmental and risk modeling, data science, and decision analysis. (authors)

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Introduction to SINBAD - Tutorial - 25448

With the reduction of experimental activities in several countries accompanied by closing of many experimental facilities, the need to preserve the valuable information on the performed radiation shielding benchmarks became increasingly crucial. Since the early 1990's the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Nuclear Energy Agency Data Bank (OECD/NEADB) and the Radiation Safety Information Computational Center (RSICC) are working together on the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive and Database (SINBAD) project to preserve and make available the information on the past shielding benchmark experiments. The OECD NEA Working Party on Scientific Issues of Reactor Systems (WPRS) Expert Group on Radiation Transport and Shielding (EGRTS) was started in 2011 with the mandate among others, to monitor, steer and support the continued development of the SINBAD database. The database comprises now 102 shielding benchmarks, divided into three categories, covering both low and inter-mediate energy particles applications: fission reactor shielding (48 benchmarks), fusion blanket neutronics (31), and accelerator shielding (23) benchmarks. They are fundamental to ensure that modelling tools meet the requirements of nuclear industry and licensing needs. Validation of nuclear cross-section data, nuclear codes and models as well as nuclear design components are few examples of the use of the database. (authors)

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ITS version 6.4: The Integrated TIGER Series of Monte Carlo Electron/Photon Radiation Transport Codes - Paper 40

ITS (Integrated TIGER Series) is a suite of fully coupled electron/photon Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. The package contains programs to perform 1D, 2D and 3D simulations. The 3D geometry representations include the traditional combinatorial geometry (CG), facet-based models, CAD models for those users who have a license for the ACIS{sup R} CAD libraries, and hybrid models of any combination. There is a multigroup version which permits adjoint analysis. The availability of source code permits the more sophisticated user to tailor the code to specific applications and to extend the capabilities of the codes to more complex applications. ITS is presently available only through a U.S.-government-use license. It is available once again through the Radiation Safety Information Computational Center (RSICC). (authors)

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SU-F-T-39: Comparing Nomograms for Ordering of Palladium-103 Seeds for Dynamic Intraoperative Prostate Seed Implantation

Purpose: Several nomograms exist for the purpose of ordering palladium- 103 seeds for permanent prostate seed implants. Excess seeds pose additional radiation safety risks and increase the cost of care. This study compared three seed ordering nomograms with seed counts from dynamic intra-operative PSI to determine (1) the cause of excess seeds and (2) the optimal nomogram for our institution. Methods: Pre-operative and intra-operative clinical data were collected for 100 Gy (n=151) and 125 Gy (n=224) prostate seed implants. The number of implanted seeds which would have given D90=100% was normalized to that criteria and seed strength of 2U. This was plotted against intra-operative prostate volume and compared to two previously published nomograms and an in-house nomogram. A linear fit was produced and confidence intervals were calculated. The causes of excess seeds were assessed by comparing pre- and intra-operative prostate volumes, variability of D90 around 100%, and variance of seed strength from 2U. Results: Of the 375 total cases, 97.6% had excess seeds. On average, 27.17±12.91% of ordered seeds were wasted. Of this percentage, 6.98±5.47% of excess seeds were due to overestimation of pre-operative prostate volume, 1.10±0.88% were due to D90<100%, 1.17±0.67% were due to seed strength over 2U, and 17.36±7.79% could not be directly attributed to a specific reason. The latter percentage may be due to overestimation of the in-house nomogram. Two of three nomograms substantially overestimated the number of seeds required. The third nomogram underestimated the required seed number for smaller prostate treatment volume. A linear fit to the clinical data was derived and 99.9% confidence intervals were calculated. Conclusion: Over 85% of clinical cases wasted over 15% of ordered seeds. Two of three nomograms overestimated the required number of seeds. The upper 99.9% C.I. of the clinical data may provide a more reasonable nomogram for Pd-103 seed ordering.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reduced discretization error in HZETRN

The deterministic particle transport code HZETRN is an efficient analysis tool for studying the effects of space radiation on humans, electronics, and shielding materials. In a previous work, numerical methods in the code were reviewed, and new methods were developed that further improved efficiency and reduced overall discretization error. It was also shown that the remaining discretization error could be attributed to low energy light ions (A < 4) with residual ranges smaller than the physical step-size taken by the code. Accurately resolving the spectrum of low energy light particles is important in assessing risk associated with astronaut radiation exposure. In this work, modifications to the light particle transport formalism are presented that accurately resolve the spectrum of low energy light ion target fragments. The modified formalism is shown to significantly reduce overall discretization error and allows a physical approximation to be removed. For typical step-sizes and energy grids used in HZETRN, discretization errors for the revised light particle transport algorithms are shown to be less than 4% for aluminum and water shielding thicknesses as large as 100 g/cm{sup 2} exposed to both solar particle event and galactic cosmic ray environments.

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Dietary Supplement Attenuates Radiation-Induced Osteoclastogenic and Oxidative Stress-Related Responses and Protects Adult Mice from Radiation-Induced Bone Loss

Our central hypothesis is that oxidative stress plays a key role in cell dysfunction and progressive bone loss caused by radiation exposure during spaceflight. In animal studies, excess free radical formation is associated with pathological changes in bone structure, enhanced bone resorption, reduced bone formation and decreased bone mineral density, which can lead to skeletal fragility. We previously reported that exposure to low or high-LET radiation rapidly increases expression levels of pro-osteoclastogenic and oxidative stress-related genes in bone and marrow, followed by pathological changes in skeletal structure. To screen various antioxidants for radioprotective effects on bone, 4 month old, male C57Bl6/J mice were treated with a dietary antioxidant cocktail, injectable alpha-lipoic acid, or a dried plum-enriched diet (DP). Mice were then exposed to 2Gy 137Cs total body radiation and one day later marrow cells were collected and the relevant genes analyzed for expression levels. Of the candidates tested, DP was most effective in reducing bone resorption-related gene expression. Microcomputed tomography revealed that DP also prevented the radiation-induced deterioration of skeletal microarchitecture, as indicated by percent bone volume, trabecular spacing and trabecular number. DP had similar protective effects on skeletal structure after sequential exposure to protons (0.5 Gy, 150MeV/n) and 56Fe 0.5Gy, 600 MeV/n). When cultured ex vivo under osteogenic conditions, bone marrow-derived cells from DP-fed animals exhibited increased colony numbers compared to control diet-fed animals. These findings suggest that DP exerted pro-osteogenic effects apart from previously identified anti-resorptive actions, which may contribute to radioprotection of skeletal tissue. In conclusion, a diet enriched in certain types of antioxidants and polyphenols such as DP may be useful as an intervention to protect tissues from degenerative effects of ionizing radiation.

Globus, Ruth↗

Biological countermeasures in space radiation health

Exposure to the types of ionizing radiation encountered during space travel may cause a number of health-related problems, but the primary concern is related to the increased risk of cancer induction in astronauts. The major types of radiation considered to be of importance during space travel are protons and particles of high atomic number and high energy (HZE particles). It is now clear that biological countermeasures can be used to prevent or reduce the levels of biological consequences resulting from exposure to protons or HZE particles, including the induction of cancer, immunosuppression and neurological defects caused by these types of ionizing radiation. Research related to the dietary additions of agents to minimize the risks of developing health-related problems which can result from exposure to space radiations is reviewed.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗

MAARSS: Magnet Architectures and Active Radiation Shielding Study

Protecting humans from space radiation is a major hurdle for human exploration of the solar system and beyond. Like on Earth, large magnetic fields surrounding a spaceship would deflect charged particles away from the habitat region and reduce the radiation dose to acceptable limits. The objective of this study is to determine the feasibility of current state of the art (SOA) high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnets as a means to protect crew from space radiation exposure on long duration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The study will look at architecture concepts to deflect high energy Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) and Solar Proton Events (SPEs). Mass, power, and shielding efficiency will be considered and compared with current passive shielding capabilities. This report will walk the reader through several designs considered over the one year study and discuss the multiple parameters that should be evaluated for magnetic shielding. The study team eventually down-selects to a scalable light weight solenoid architecture that is launchable and then deployable using magnetic pressure to expand large diameter coils. Benefitting from the low temperature and high vacuum environment of deep space, existing high-temperature superconductors make such radiation shields realistic, near-term technical developments.

Westover, Shayne C.↗

Analysis of urinary excretion data from three plutonium-contaminated wounds at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The NCRP-156 Report proposes seven different biokinetic models for the wound cases depending on the physicochemistry of the contaminant. Because the models were heavily based on experimental animal data, the authors of the report encouraged application and validation of the models using bioassay data from actual human exposures. Each of the wound models was applied to three plutonium-contaminated wounds, and the models resulted in a good agreement to only one of the cases. We then applied a simpler biokinetic model structure to the bioassay data and showed that fitting the transfer rates from this model structure yielded better agreement with the data than does the best-fitting NCRP-156 model. Because the biokinetics of radioactive material in each wound is different, it is impractical to propose a discrete set of model parameters to describe the biokinetics of radionuclides in all wounds, and thus each wound should be treated empirically.

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The Role of Extracellular Fluid in Biokinetic Modeling

Here, the pharmacokinetic equations of Pierson et al. describing the behavior of bromide in rat provide a general approach to the modeling of extracellular fluid (ECF). The movement of material into ECF spaces is rapid and is completely characterized by tissue volumes and vascular flow rates to and from a tissue, the volumes of the tissue, and the ECF associated with the tissue. Early-time measurements are needed to characterize ECF. Measurements of DTPA disappearance from plasma by Wedeking et al. are discussed as an example of such measurements. In any biokinetic model, the fastest transfer rates are not determinable with the usual datasets, and if determined empirically, these rates will have very large and highly correlated uncertainties, so particular values of these rates, even though the model fits the available data, are not significant. A pharmacokinetic front-end provides values for these fast rates. An example of such a front-end for a 200–g rat is given.

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SAVY 4000 Container Filter Design Life and Extension Implementation

The SAVY 4000 is a general purpose, reusable container for the storage of solid nuclear material inside a nuclear facility. The canister has a permitted loading for material with a thermal output not to exceed 25 watts. This wattage limit applies to all containers, regardless of their size.

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Difference distributions applicable to certain health physic's measurements

This paper discusses calculational methods for the determination of the difference distributions associated with certain health physics measurements. These measurements include the check source response counts relative to an initial reference count, the Albatross (i.e., HPI model 2080B) neutron tube counts relative to the gamma tube counts, and those that involve the use of the automatic background subtraction feature within portable health physics instrumentation. This paper therefore provides a technical basis for the necessary source strength of a check source in order to meet daily limits, the gamma field limitations of the HPI2080 Albatross, as well as the consequences of automatic background subtraction. Examples are provided that illustrate the methods for a few specific measurements.

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Practical applications of the sigma factor alarm method within alpha CAMs utilizing either ROI, tail-fitting, or peak-fitting algorithms

Some test must be applied to the low-level count data from alpha continuous air monitors (CAMs) to determine if the count is statistically significant (i.e., significantly above background). The test should also automatically account for different levels of background (i.e., different ambient radon progeny concentrations). In other words, the method should be as sensitive as possible, automatically desensitizing when required, yet in such a manner as to not exceed some previously-chosen acceptable false-alarm rate. The test that has been historically utilized within many alpha CAMs to accomplish these goals is the so-called sigma factor approach.

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