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At least 955 records · Page 53

Role of secondary instability theory and parabolized stability equations in transition modeling

In modeling the laminar-turbulent transition region, the designer depends largely on benchmark data from experiments and/or direct numerical simulations that are usually extremely expensive. An understanding of the evolution of the Reynolds stresses, turbulent kinetic energy, and quantifies in the transport equations like the dissipation and production is essential in the modeling process. The secondary instability theory and the parabolized stability equations method are used to calculate these quantities, which are then compared with corresponding quantities calculated from available direct numerical simulation data for the incompressible boundary-layer flow of laminar-turbulent transition conditions. The potential of the secondary instability theory and the parabolized stability equations approach in predicting these quantities is discussed; results indicate that inexpensive data that are useful for transition modeling in the early stages of the transition region can be provided by these tools.

El-Hady, Nabil M.↗

Determination of Chemical Kinetic Rate Constants of a Model for Carbothermal Processing of Lunar Regolith Simulant Using Methane

We have previously developed a chemical conversion model of the carbothermal processing of lunar regolith using methane to predict the rate of production of carbon monoxide. In this carbothermal process, gaseous methane is pyrolyzed as it flows over the hot surface of a molten zone of lunar regolith and is converted to carbon and hydrogen. Hydrogen is carried away by the exiting stream of gases and carbon is deposited on the melt surface. The deposited carbon mixes with the melt and reacts with the metal oxides in it to produce carbon monoxide that bubbles out of the melt. In our model, we assume that the flux of carbon deposited is equal to the product of the surface reaction rate constant gamma and the concentration of methane adjacent to the melt surface. Similarly, the rate of consumption of carbon per unit volume in the melt is equal to the product of the melt reaction rate constant k and the concentrations of carbon and metal oxide in the melt. In this paper, we describe our effort to determine gamma and k by comparison of the predictions from our model with test data obtained by ORBITEC (Orbital Technologies Corporation). The concentration of methane adjacent to the melt surface is a necessary input to the model. It is inferred from the test data by a mass balance of methane, adopting the usual assumptions of the continuously-stirred-tank-reactor model, whereby the average concentration of a given gaseous species equals its exit concentration. The reaction rates gamma and k have been determined by a non-linear least-squares fit to the test data for the production of carbon monoxide and the fraction of the incoming methane that is converted. The comparison of test data with our model predictions using the determined chemical kinetic rate constants provides a consistent interpretation of the process over the full range of temperatures, pressures, and methane flow rates used in the tests, thereby increasing our confidence to use the model for scale-up purposes.

Balasubramaniam, R↗

Current capabilities for simulating the extreme distortion of thin structures subjected to severe impacts

The explicit transient dynamics technology in use today for simulating the impact and subsequent transient dynamic response of a structure has its origins in the 'hydrocodes' dating back to the late 1940's. The growth in capability in explicit transient dynamics technology parallels the growth in speed and size of digital computers. Computer software for simulating the explicit transient dynamic response of a structure is characterized by algorithms that use a large number of small steps. In explicit transient dynamics software there is a significant emphasis on speed and simplicity. The finite element technology used to generate the spatial discretization of a structure is based on a compromise between completeness of the representation for the physical processes modelled and speed in execution. That is, since it is expected in every calculation that the deformation will be finite and the material will be strained beyond the elastic range, the geometry and the associated gradient operators must be reconstructed, as well as complex stress-strain models evaluated at every time step. As a result, finite elements derived for explicit transient dynamics software use the simplest and barest constructions possible for computational efficiency while retaining an essential representation of the physical behavior. The best example of this technology is the four-node bending quadrilateral derived by Belytschko, Lin and Tsay. Today, the speed, memory capacity and availability of computer hardware allows a number of the previously used algorithms to be 'improved.' That is, it is possible with today's computing hardware to modify many of the standard algorithms to improve their representation of the physical process at the expense of added complexity and computational effort. The purpose is to review a number of these algorithms and identify the improvements possible. In many instances, both the older, faster version of the algorithm and the improved and somewhat slower version of the algorithm are found implemented together in software. Specifically, the following seven algorithmic items are examined: the invariant time derivatives of stress used in material models expressed in rate form; incremental objectivity and strain used in the numerical integration of the material models; the use of one-point element integration versus mean quadrature; shell elements used to represent the behavior of thin structural components; beam elements based on stress-resultant plasticity versus cross-section integration; the fidelity of elastic-plastic material models in their representation of ductile metals; and the use of Courant subcycling to reduce computational effort.

Key, Samuel W.↗

Investigation of Cycling Coal-Fired Power Plants Using High-Fidelity Models

The project delivers a well-integrated and validated simulation platform for cycling operation analysis in coal-fired power plant. Two critical mechanical components of the boiler island were analyzed through mechanical integrity assessment and economic benefit analysis. The current phase of the project focuses on the development of the integrated simulation infrastructure and prove its feasibility and effectiveness using two typical use cases. This integrated platform can help save a lot of engineering efforts for model development and simulation analysis. Through the real simulation scenarios in this document, it was demonstrated that using this platform, an analysis can be completed in approximately 2 days, while it could cost several weeks before using this platform. Going forward, the platform built in this project can be used for more boiler service applications, and it can be further enhanced with more functions/features to maximize its usage and benefits. 1) Extend component-level analysis with more use cases to cover all the major critical components of boiler island under cycling operations. A library of critical components can be developed and validated for typical pulverized coal-fired subcritical boiler units. 2) Develop predictive maintenance features based on the integrated models (Digital Twins) and engineering analysis procedures. Predictive maintenance enables each asset to be serviced based on forecast on life consumption and cost profile for replacing/welding the critical mechanical parts of the boiler. This minimizes the chance of unscheduled shutdowns and emergency services at much higher costs and prevent the fatal accidents in unit operations. 3) Develop and maintain a standard library for critical component analysis under flexible plant operations, which will include libraries of: process models, MI models for typical pressure parts, and economic models with typical plant operating data and ISO power trade data.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Remote-sensing based technique to account for sub-grid scale variability of land surface properties

A method has been presented for the representation of sub-grid scale variability of surface properties within a land surface processes model. The method uses remotely-sensed data to directly or indirectly estimate probability density functions (PDF's) or key surface variables. Application of this technique in a coupled land surface-atmosphere model requires only grid-scale values of the variables of interest, obtained from low-resolution satellite imagery or surface/remote sensing data assimilation. The PDF's of each controlling surface property are superimposed on the respective grid-scale values to simulate sub-grid scale heterogeneity. Sensitivity studies will be carried out to ascertain the relative importance of the heterogeneity of several variables, and the degree to which non-linear property-process interactions impact large-scale fluxes.

Crosson, William L.↗

Cost analysis of composite fan blade manufacturing processes

The relative manufacturing costs were estimated for large high technology fan blades prepared by advanced composite fabrication methods using seven candidate materials/process systems. These systems were identified as laminated resin matrix composite, filament wound resin matrix composite, superhybrid solid laminate, superhybrid spar/shell, metal matrix composite, metal matrix composite with a spar and shell, and hollow titanium. The costs were calculated utilizing analytical process models and all cost data are presented as normalized relative values where 100 was the cost of a conventionally forged solid titanium fan blade whose geometry corresponded to a size typical of 42 blades per disc. Four costs were calculated for each of the seven candidate systems to relate the variation of cost on blade size. Geometries typical of blade designs at 24, 30, 36 and 42 blades per disc were used. The impact of individual process yield factors on costs was also assessed as well as effects of process parameters, raw materials, labor rates and consumable items.

Stelson, T. S.↗

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗

CO 2 conversion to syngas via electrification of endothermal reactors: Process design and environmental impact analysis

CO 2 utilization via reverse water gas shift (rWGS) reaction has been proposed as a path to the sustainable utilization. Here this work presents a detailed process modelling study where steam methane reforming (SMR) generated hydrogen was combined with rWGS to produce syngas (CO + H 2 ) with various hydrogen-to-carbon oxide ratios. To further decrease CO 2 emissions that may offset the benefits of CO 2 converted in rWGS, electrification of endothermal reactors, both SMR and rWGS was considered where CO 2 emitting fuel burning in the furnace was replaced by the emerging ohmic (resistive) heating. Material and energy inventory obtained from process design calculations was used to perform Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to calculate environmental impacts of CO 2 consumption and reactor electrification. The results showed that greenhouse gas emissions, in CO 2 kg equivalent, were the lowest when both SMR and rWGS were heated using wind-generated electricity, decreasing from 25 to 10 kg CO 2 equivalent for H 2 :CO = 2:1 while the conventional electricity mix used for furnace electrical heating across the board of scenarios generated highest environmental impacts, much higher than those that used natural gas as fuel. Process economics calculations suggested that, when both SMR and rWGS were electrically heated, the process only showed product syngas cost parity with the conventional fuel heated design when electricity cost was ~$0.008/kWh. This suggests that CO 2 utilization scenarios involving process electrification need to be carefully considered from the total design perspective so they do not produce more greenhouse gases than in conventional non-electrified scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis of Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a Kriging, i.e., Gaussian process modeling enabled data-driven GSA method. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol index can be conveniently calculated to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to various power injection variations. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the IEEE 37-bus feeder, such as the polynomial chaos expansion and the Monte Carlo approaches demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA outcomes while maintaining high computational efficiency.

distribution system analysis↗

CFD Modelling of Bore Erosion in Two-Stage Light Gas Guns

A well-validated quasi-one-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code for the analysis of the internal ballistics of two-stage light gas guns is modified to explicitly calculate the ablation of steel from the gun bore and the incorporation of the ablated wall material into the hydrogen working cas. The modified code is used to model 45 shots made with the NASA Ames 0.5 inch light gas gun over an extremely wide variety of gun operating conditions. Good agreement is found between the experimental and theoretical piston velocities (maximum errors of +/-2% to +/-6%) and maximum powder pressures (maximum errors of +/-10% with good igniters). Overall, the agreement between the experimental and numerically calculated gun erosion values (within a factor of 2) was judged to be reasonably good, considering the complexity of the processes modelled. Experimental muzzle velocities agree very well (maximum errors of 0.5-0.7 km/sec) with theoretical muzzle velocities calculated with loading of the hydrogen gas with the ablated barrel wall material. Comparison of results for pump tube volumes of 100%, 60% and 40% of an initial benchmark value show that, at the higher muzzle velocities, operation at 40% pump tube volume produces much lower hydrogen loading and gun erosion and substantially lower maximum pressures in the gun. Large muzzle velocity gains (2.4-5.4 km/sec) are predicted upon driving the gun harder (that is, upon using, higher powder loads and/or lower hydrogen fill pressures) when hydrogen loading is neglected; much smaller muzzle velocity gains (1.1-2.2 km/sec) are predicted when hydrogen loading is taken into account. These smaller predicted velocity gains agree well with those achieved in practice. CFD snapshots of the hydrogen mass fraction, density and pressure of the in-bore medium are presented for a very erosive shot.

Bogdanoff, D. W.↗

Keystone Solar Future Project (KSFP)

The Keystone Solar Future Project (KSFP, also referred to as “Keystone Project” in the report) implements a cost-effective, secure, reliable, and safe technology platform that paves the way for future interconnected distributed energy resources (DER), creates a framework that enables high penetration of DER, and transforms the DER interconnection process. The project is important and necessary in a few aspects. First, the industry definition of Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS) is not yet validated against field deployments and mostly implemented in small pilots relying on third party integration. Keystone project implements a direct plug and play communication to inverter based DER systems. Secondly, most interconnection application portal is not yet fully integrated with back-end system, thus lacks the capability to drive a complete and accurate modeling of DER assets into the planning and operational systems. Keystone project rolled out a fully integrated modeling process of DERs from interconnection to operational management. Lastly, customers were given an opportunity to learn about the advanced functions of the inverters and take full advantages of their benefits through participation in the pilot program. During the project, the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of DER management were investigated and demonstrated in real life events and simulation studies. The project highlighted the importance of coordinated DER interconnection, installation and management with the rest of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Application of Multi-Satellite Observations in Hydrologic Modeling

When monitoring local or regional hydrosphere dynamics for applications such as agricultural productivity or drought and flooding events, it is necessary to have accurate, high-resolution estimates of terrestrial water and energy storages. Though in-situ observations provide reliable estimates of hydrologic states and fluxes, they are only capable of accurately capturing the dynamics at relatively discrete points in space and time, which makes them inadequate for characterizing the variability of the water budget across scales. In contrast, satellite-based remote sensing is ideal for providing observations of hydrological states and fluxes because it provides spatially-distributed observations at spatial and temporal scales required for regional land surface process modeling. Due to the continued progress in algorithm development and emerging satellite technology, we now have near-real time monitoring of several components of the water cycle including precipitation, soil moisture, lake and river height, terrestrial water storage, snow cover, and evapotranspiration. As these data become more readily available, their application to hydrologic modeling is becoming more common, however there remains little consensus on the most appropriate method for optimal integration and evaluation in regard to hydrological applications. Here we present two case studies operationally applying several remotely sensed products from AMSR-E, GRACE, and MODIS and discuss assimilation strategies, ease of integration and interpretation, and methods for quantifying the success of the application methodology.

Bolten, John↗

Multi-objective Bayesian optimization of ferroelectric materials with interfacial control for memory and energy storage applications

Optimization of materials’ performance for specific applications often requires balancing multiple aspects of materials’ functionality. Even for the cases where a generative physical model of material behavior is known and reliable, this often requires search over multidimensional function space to identify low-dimensional manifold corresponding to the required Pareto front. In this work, we introduce the multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) workflow for the ferroelectric/antiferroelectric performance optimization for memory and energy storage applications based on the numerical solution of the Ginzburg–Landau equation with electrochemical or semiconducting boundary conditions. MOBO is a low computational cost optimization tool for expensive multi-objective functions, where we update posterior surrogate Gaussian process models from prior evaluations and then select future evaluations from maximizing an acquisition function. Using the parameters for a prototype bulk antiferroelectric (PbZrO 3 ), we first develop a physics-driven decision tree of target functions from the loop structures. We further develop a physics-driven MOBO architecture to explore multidimensional parameter space and build Pareto-frontiers by maximizing two target functions jointly—energy storage and loss. This approach allows for rapid initial materials and device parameter selection for a given application and can be further expanded toward the active experiment setting. The associated notebooks provide both the tutorial on MOBO and allow us to reproduce the reported analyses and apply them to other systems (https://github.com/arpanbiswas52/MOBO_AFI_Supplements).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗

Knowledge-based approach to system integration

To solve complex problems one can often use the decomposition principle. However, a problem is seldom decomposable into completely independent subproblems. System integration deals with problem of resolving the interdependencies and the integration of the subsolutions. A natural method of decomposition is the hierarchical one. High-level specifications are broken down into lower level specifications until they can be transformed into solutions relatively easily. By automating the hierarchical decomposition and solution generation an integrated system is obtained in which the declaration of high level specifications is enough to solve the problem. We offer a knowledge-based approach to integrate the development and building of control systems. The process modeling is supported by using graphic editors. The user selects and connects icons that represent subprocesses and might refer to prewritten programs. The graphical editor assists the user in selecting parameters for each subprocess and allows the testing of a specific configuration. Next, from the definitions created by the graphical editor, the actual control program is built. Fault-diagnosis routines are generated automatically as well. Since the user is not required to write program code and knowledge about the process is present in the development system, the user is not required to have expertise in many fields.

Blokland, W.↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of the Production of Biodegradable Polyaliphatic–Polyaromatic Polyesters

Poly(butylene-adipate terephthalate) (PBAT) is a polyaliphatic–polyaromatic polyester that is biodegradable and has found application in several markets, making it a widely produced biodegradable polymer worldwide. However, the production of PBAT is carbon-intensive, as it relies on the use of petroleum-based monomers. There is, thus, significant interest in identifying polyesters that are biodegradable and less carbon-intensive (e.g., use of biomass- derived monomers). In this work, we develop a detailed process model (and an associated database) for the production of polyaliphatic–polyaromatic polyesters including petroleum-based PBAT and biomass-derived alternatives including poly(pentylene- adipate terephthalate) and poly(pentylene-adipate furandicarboxy- late). Techno-economic analysis (TEA) reveals that the production costs of these polyesters strongly depend on monomer costs (accounting for over 90% of the total production cost) and identifies market conditions under which biomass-based polyesters can be cost-competitive to petroleum-based PBAT. Life cycle assessment (LCA) shows that biomass-derived polyesters can reduce the global warming impact of PBAT by half. Altogether, the proposed TEA/LCA model aims to provide guidance into polyesters that are most promising and help assess their overall economic and environmental performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗