Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive analytics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

An Experimental Study of Incremental Surface Loading of an Elastic Plate: Application to Volcano Tectonics

Models of surface fractures due to volcanic loading an elastic plate are commonly used to constrain thickness of planetary lithospheres, but discrepancies exist in predictions of the style of initial failure and in the nature of subsequent fracture evolution. In this study, we perform an experiment to determine the mode of initial failure due to the incremental addition of a conical load to the surface of an elastic plate and compare the location of initial failure with that predicted by elastic theory. In all experiments, the mode of initial failure was tension cracking at the surface of the plate, with cracks oriented circumferential to the load. The cracks nucleated at a distance from load center that corresponds the maximum radial stress predicted by analytical solutions, so a tensile failure criterion is appropriate for predictions of initial failure. With continued loading of the plate, migration of tensional cracks was observed. In the same azimuthal direction as the initial crack, subsequent cracks formed at a smaller radial distance than the initial crack. When forming in a different azimuthal direction, the subsequent cracks formed at a distance greater than the radial distance of the initial crack. The observed fracture pattern may explain the distribution of extensional structures in annular bands around many large scale, circular volcanic features.

Williams, K. K.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Advances in core loss calculations for magnetic materials

A new analytical technique which predicts the basic magnetic properties under various operating conditions encountered in state-of-the-art dc-ac/dc converters is discussed. Using a new flux-controlled core excitation circuit, magnetic core characteristics were developed for constant values of ramp flux (square wave voltage excitation) and frequency. From this empirical data, a mathematical loss characteristics equation is developed to analytically predict the specific core loss of several magnetic materials under various waveform excitation conditions. In addition, these characteristics show the circuit designer for the first time the direct functional relatonships between induction level and specific core loss as a function of the two key dc-dc converter operating parameters of input voltage and duty cycle.

Triner, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Inelastic response of metal matrix composites under biaxial loading

Elements of the analytical/experimental program to characterize the response of silicon carbide titanium (SCS-6/Ti-15-3) composite tubes under biaxial loading are outlined. The analytical program comprises prediction of initial yielding and subsequent inelastic response of unidirectional and angle-ply silicon carbide titanium tubes using a combined micromechanics approach and laminate analysis. The micromechanics approach is based on the method of cells model and has the capability of generating the effective thermomechanical response of metal matrix composites in the linear and inelastic region in the presence of temperature and time-dependent properties of the individual constituents and imperfect bonding on the initial yield surfaces and inelastic response of (0) and (+ or - 45)sub s SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminates loaded by different combinations of stresses. The generated analytical predictions will be compared with the experimental results. The experimental program comprises generation of initial yield surfaces, subsequent stress-strain curves and determination of failure loads of the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 tubes under selected loading conditions. The results of the analytical investigation are employed to define the actual loading paths for the experimental program. A brief overview of the experimental methodology is given. This includes the test capabilities of the Composite Mechanics Laboratory at the University of Virginia, the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 composite tubes secured from McDonnell Douglas Corporation, a text fixture specifically developed for combined axial-torsional loading, and the MTS combined axial-torsion loader that will be employed in the actual testing.

Mirzadeh, F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast Surface Oxygen Release Kinetics Accelerate Nanoparticle Exsolution in Perovskite Oxides

Exsolution is a recent advancement for fabricating oxide-supported metal nanoparticle catalysts via phase precipitation out of a host oxide. A fundamental understanding and control of the exsolution kinetics are needed to engineer exsolved nanoparticles to obtain higher catalytic activity toward clean energy and fuel conversion. Since oxygen release via oxygen vacancy formation in the host oxide is behind oxide reduction and metal exsolution, we hypothesize that the kinetics of metal exsolution should depend on the kinetics of oxygen release, in addition to the kinetics of metal cation diffusion. In this report we probe the surface exsolution kinetics both experimentally and theoretically using thin-film perovskite SrTi 0.65 Fe 0.35 O 3 (STF) as a model system. We quantitatively demonstrated that in this system the surface oxygen release governs the metal nanoparticle exsolution kinetics. As a result, by increasing the oxygen release rate in STF, either by reducing the sample thickness or by increasing the surface reactivity, one can effectively accelerate the Fe 0 exsolution kinetics. Fast oxygen release kinetics in STF not only shortened the prereduction time prior to the exsolution onset, but also increased the total quantity of exsolved Fe 0 over time, which agrees well with the predictions from our analytical kinetic modeling. The consistency between the results obtained from in situ experiments and analytical modeling provides a predictive capability for tailoring exsolution, and highlights the importance of engineering host oxide surface oxygen release kinetics in designing exsolved nanocatalysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1971

Viscoseal performance for rarefied gas sealant.

Viscoseal performance as predicted by three different analytical models is compared with experimental data for a rarefied gas sealant. An experimental investigation has been conducted on two multiple grooved two-inch diameter viscoseals over a wide range of gas densities and shaft speeds up to 30,000 rpm. The two seal geometries considered differ significantly insofar as groove aspect ratio is concerned. Two types of seal performances are presented in the form of net leakage operation and sealing coefficient performance as functions of the degree of gas rarefication. Although the analytical models correctly predict sealing trends, all of the models are shown to have some deficiencies which prevent their indiscriminate application.

Milligan, M. W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Application of Interface Technology in Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Panels

A progressive failure analysis capability using interface technology is presented. The capability has been implemented in the COMET-AR finite element analysis code developed at the NASA Langley Research Center and is demonstrated on composite panels. The composite panels are analyzed for damage initiation and propagation from initial loading to final failure using a progressive failure analysis capability that includes both geometric and material nonlinearities. Progressive failure analyses are performed on conventional models and interface technology models of the composite panels. Analytical results and the computational effort of the analyses are compared for the conventional models and interface technology models. The analytical results predicted with the interface technology models are in good correlation with the analytical results using the conventional models, while significantly reducing the computational effort.

Sleight, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Solid rocket motor nozzles

The steps in the nozzle design process are examined. The nozzle designer's role in defining design requirements and constraints is included along with discussions of each of the three basic phases of the nozzle design process itself: (1) aerodynamic design, in which the gas-contacting surfaces are configured to produce the required performance within the envelope limits; (2) thermal design, in which termal liners and thermal insulators are selected and configured to maintain the surfaces as closely as practical against effects of erosion and to limit the structure temperature to acceptable levels; and (3) structural design, in which materials are selected and configured to support the thermal components and to sustain the predicted loads. Analytical techniques that are used to establish thermal and structural design integrity and to predict nozzle performance are discussed along with methods for nozzle quality assurance. Emphasis is placed on nozzle design and materials for modern high-temperature aluminized propellants. Recurring nozzle design problems of graphite cracking and ejection, differential erosion at material interfaces, lack of sufficient proven nondestructive testing (NDT) techniques, the uncertainty of adhesive bonding, and inadequate definition of material properties, particularly at high temperatures are considered.

Ellis, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Evaluation of battery models for prediction of electric vehicle range

Three analytical models for predicting electric vehicle battery output and the corresponding electric vehicle range for various driving cycles were evaluated. The models were used to predict output and range, and then compared with experimentally determined values determined by laboratory tests on batteries using discharge cycles identical to those encountered by an actual electric vehicle while on SAE cycles. Results indicate that the modified Hoxie model gave the best predictions with an accuracy of about 97 to 98% in the best cases and 86% in the worst case. A computer program was written to perform the lengthy iterative calculations required. The program and hardware used to automatically discharge the battery are described.

Frank, H. A.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A simplified design procedure for life prediction of rocket thrust chambers

An analytical procedure for predicting thrust chamber life is developed. The hot-gas-wall ligaments separating the coolant and combustion gas are subjected to pressure loading and severe thermal cycling. The resulting stresses interact during plastic straining causing incremental bulging of the ligaments during each firing cycle. This mechanism of plastic ratcheting is analyzed and a method using a yield surface for combined bending and membrane loading developed for determining the incremental permanent deflection and progressive thinning near the center of the ligaments. Fatigue and tensile instability are analyzed as possible failure modes. Results of the simplified analyses compare favorably with available experimental data and finite element analysis results for OFHC (Oxygen Free High Conductivity) copper. They are also in reasonably good agreement with experimental data for NARloy Z, a copper-zirconium-silver alloy developed by the Rocketdyne Division of Rockwell International.

Porowski, J. S.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Structure of Exhausts in Magnetic Reconnection with an X-line of Finite Extent

We present quantitative predictions of the structure of reconnection exhausts in three-dimensional magnetic reconnection with an X-line of finite extent in the out-of-plane direction. Sasunov et al. showed that they have a tilted ribbon-like shape bounded by rotational discontinuities and tangential discontinuities. We show analytically and numerically that this prediction is largely correct. When there is an out-of-plane (guide) magnetic field, the presence of the upstream field that does not reconnect acts as a boundary condition in the normal direction, which forces the normal magnetic field to be zero outside the exhaust. This condition constrains the normal magnetic field inside the exhaust to be small. Thus, rather than the ribbon tilting in the inflow direction, the exhaust remains collimated in the normal direction and is forced to expand nearly completely in the out-of-plane direction. This exhaust structure is in stark contrast to the two-dimensional picture of reconnection, where reconnected flux expands in the normal direction. We present analytical predictions for the structure of the exhausts in terms of upstream conditions. The predictions are confirmed using three-dimensional resistive-magnetohydrodynamic simulations with a finite-length X-line achieved using a localized (anomalous) resistivity. Implications to reconnection in the solar wind are discussed. In particular, the results can be used to estimate a lower bound for the extent of the X-line in the out-of-plane direction solely using single-spacecraft data taken downstream in the exhausts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of CAPE from Analytical Solutions to RCE

By deriving analytical solutions to radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), it is shown mathematically that convective available potential energy (CAPE) exhibits Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling over a wide range of surface temperatures up to 310 K. Above 310 K, CAPE deviates from CC scaling and even decreases with warming at very high surface temperatures. At the surface temperature of the current tropics, the analytical solutions predict that CAPE increases at a rate of about 6%-7% per kelvin of surface warming. The analytical solutions also provide insight on how the tropopause height and stratospheric humidity change with warming. Changes in the tropopause height exhibit CC scaling, with the tropopause rising by about 400 m per kelvin of surface warming at current tropical temperatures and by about 1-2 km K -1 at surface temperatures in the range of 320-340 K. The specific humidity of the stratosphere exhibits super-CC scaling at temperatures moderately warmer than the current tropics. With a surface temperature of the current tropics, the stratospheric specific humidity increases by about 6% per kelvin of surface warming, but the rate of increase is as high as 30% K -1 at warmer surface temperatures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical interference prediction for ground stations from orbiting satellites. I - Simulation of interference duration and analytical approach for the determination of protection ratios

The authors describe simulation and analytical techniques for predicting the interference durations and protection ratios for deep-space ground stations from satellites in circular orbits. The simulation approach employs the characteristics of the ground station receivers in addition to the satellite specifications to calculate the daily statistics of the interference duration. On the other hand, the analytical method employs the ground station specifications to statistically predict the protection ratios as a function of the number of interference satellites and their associated probabilities. The results presented here can be used for both planning the missions and designing satellite communication links. The results can be also be used by spectrum managers and operations personnel to minimize the risk of harmful interference from satellites in low earth orbit to the deep space frequency band.

Gevargiz, John M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Non-local large-strain FFT-based formulation and its application to interface-dominated plasticity of nano-metallic laminates

Here, this paper presents a novel formulation and its robust numerical implementation of strain-gradient (SG) crystal plasticity within a large-strain (LS) elasto-viscoplastic (EVP) fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based micromechanical model. The resulting non-local SG-LS-EVPFFT formulation is used to model and understand the process of kink band formation during layer-parallel compression of nano-metallic laminates (NMLs). NMLs are layered composites with nanoscale thicknesses, thus requiring consideration of the interaction between dislocations and interfaces within the micromechanical model. The length-scale parameter of the SG model is calibrated by simulating a double pile-up and comparing predictions to analytical solution. This required new expressions for the defect energy, resulting in more accurate double pile-up predictions. The calibrated SG-LS-EVPFFT model is then used to simulate layer-parallel compression of copper-niobium NML. Formation of kink bands is predicted, and the model is used to rationalize the microscopic mechanisms enabling the formation process. It is found that accumulation of dislocations at interfaces leads to activation of layer-parallel slip, which in turn leads to kink band formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Comparing Geologically Informed Data Products to Analytical Solutions

Abstract This study synthesizes two different methods for estimating hydraulic conductivity (K) at large scales. We derive analytical approaches that estimate K and apply them to the contiguous United States. We then compare these analytical approaches to three‐dimensional, national gridded K data products and three transmissivity (T) data products developed from publicly available sources. We evaluate these data products using multiple approaches: comparing their statistics qualitatively and quantitatively and with hydrologic model simulations. Some of these datasets were used as inputs for an integrated hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin and the comparison of the results with observations was used to further evaluate the K data products. Simulated average daily streamflow was compared to daily flow data from 10 USGS stream gages in the domain, and annually averaged simulated groundwater depths are compared to observations from nearly 2000 monitoring wells. We find streamflow predictions from analytically informed simulations to be similar in relative bias and Spearman's rho to the geologically informed simulations. R ‐squared values for groundwater depth predictions are close between the best performing analytically and geologically informed simulations at 0.68 and 0.70 respectively, with RMSE values under 10 m. We also show that the analytical approach derived by this study produces estimates of K that are similar in spatial distribution, standard deviation, mean value, and modeling performance to geologically‐informed estimates. The results of this work are used to inform a follow‐on study that tests additional data‐driven approaches in multiple basins within the contiguous United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Verification of a magnetic island in gyro-kinetics by comparison with analytic theory

A rotating magnetic island is imposed in the gyrokinetic code GKW, when finite differences are used for the radial direction, in order to develop the predictions of analytic tearing mode theory and understand its limitations. The implementation is verified against analytics in sheared slab geometry with three numerical tests that are suggested as benchmark cases for every code that imposes a magnetic island. The convergence requirements to properly resolve physics around the island separatrix are investigated. In the slab geometry, at low magnetic shear, binormal flows inside the island can drive Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities which prevent the formation of the steady state for which the analytic theory is formulated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

Halford, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

This study is an extension of previous work to evaluate the applicability of Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology to on-orbit thermal analysis. The goal was to determine if the methodology could produce a Response Surface Equation (RSE) that predicted the thermal model temperature results within +/-10 F. An RSE is a polynomial expression that can then be used to predict temperatures for a defined range of factor combinations. Based on suggestions received from the previous work, this study used a model with simpler geometry, considered polynomials up to fifth order, and evaluated orbital temperature variations to establish a minimum and maximum temperature for each component. A simplified Outer Mold Line (OML) thermal model of the Orion spacecraft was used in this study. The factors chosen were the vehicle's Yaw, Pitch, and Roll (defining the on-orbit attitude), the Beta angle (restricted to positive beta angles from 0 to 75), and the environmental constants (varying from cold to hot). All factors were normalized from their native ranges to a non-dimensional range from -1.0 to 1.0. Twenty-three components from the OML were chosen and the minimum and maximum orbital temperatures were calculated for each to produce forty-six responses for the DOE model. A customized DOE case matrix of 145 analysis cases was developed which used analysis points at the factor corners, mid-points, and center. From this data set, RSE s were developed which consisted of cubic, quartic, and fifth order polynomials. The results presented are for the fifth order RSE. The RSE results were then evaluated for agreement with the analytical model predictions to produce a +/-3(sigma) error band. Forty of the 46 responses had a +/-3(sigma) value of 10 F or less. Encouraged by this initial success, two additional sets of verification cases were selected. One contained 20 cases, the other 50 cases. These cases were evaluated both with the fifth order RSE and with the analytical model. For the maximum temperature predictions, 12 of the 23 components had all predictions within +/-10 F and 17 were within +/-20 F. For the minimum temperature predictions, only 4 of the 23 components (the four radiator temperatures), were within the 10 F goal. The maximum temperature RSEs were then run through 59,049 screening cases. The RSE predictions were then filtered to find 55 cases that produced the hottest temperatures. These 55 cases were then analyzed using the thermal model and the results compared against the RSE predictions. As noted earlier, 12 of the 23 responses were within +/-10 F at 17 within +/-20 F. These results demonstrate that if properly formulated, an RSE can provide a reliable, fast temperature prediction. Despite this progress, additional work is needed to determine why the minimum temperatures responses and 6 of the hot temperature responses did not produce reliable RSEs. Recommend focus areas are the model itself (arithmetic vs. diffusion nodes) and seeking consultations with statistical application experts.

Miller, StephenW.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the NASA Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

G R Halford↗