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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

Integrated optical and electrical modeling of plasmon-enhanced thin film photovoltaics: A case-study on organic devices

The nanoscale light control for absorption enhancement of organic photovoltaic (OPV) devices inevitably produces strongly non-uniform optical fields. These non-uniformities due to the localized optical modes are a primary route toward absorption enhancement in OPV devices. Therefore, a rigorous modeling tool taking into account the spatial distribution of optical field and carrier generation is necessary. Presented here is a comprehensive numerical model to describe the coupled optical and electrical behavior of plasmon-enhanced polymer:fullerene bulk heterojunction (BHJ) solar cells. In this model, a position-dependent electron-hole pair generation rate that could become highly non-uniform due to photonic nanostructures is directly calculated from the optical simulations. By considering the absorption and plasmonic properties of nanophotonic gratings included in two different popular device architectures, and applying the Poisson, current continuity, and drift/diffusion equations, the model predicts quantum efficiency, short-circuit current density, and desired carrier mobility ratios for bulk heterojunction devices incorporating nanostructures for light management. In particular, the model predicts a significant degradation of device performance when the carrier species with lower mobility are generated far from the collecting electrode. Consequently, an inverted device architecture is preferred for materials with low hole mobility. This is especially true for devices that include plasmonic nanostructures. Additionally, due to the incorporation of a plasmonic nanostructure, we use simulations to theoretically predict absorption band broadening of a BHJ into energies below the band gap, resulting in a 4.8% increase in generated photocurrent.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microstructure Scale Lithium-Ion Battery Modeling: Part III. When and Where Lithium Plating Occurs and its Correlation with the Electrode Microstructure

Li-ion battery performance and degradation are closely related to the cell’s underlying electrode microstructure. Electrode microstructures are typically characterized with volume-averaged properties that neglect the impact of local heterogeneities. However, local heterogeneities create hot spots that can trigger degradation onset. Herein, a microstructure scale electrochemical model is used to investigate the impact of microstructure heterogeneity on lithium plating. The model predicts lithium plating is not uniform, even when considering a relatively small portion of the electrode (a cross-sectional area of 154×144 µm 2 ), preferring to plate on larger particles as compared to smaller particles. While local heterogeneities control where plating occurs, the model predicts that volume-averaged properties control when plating occurs. Additionally, the model predicts that the active material specific surface area has a linear relationship with the plating onset. However, the linear relationship between increased active material surface area and delayed plating response appears to be sensitive to the microstructure feature used to increase the active interface area. Here, a comparative case-study is explored where the specific surface area is increased by either reducing the active material particle diameter, adding open-porosity cracks, or increasing the active material surface roughness. The model predicts that increasing the specific surface area by reducing the active material particle diameter is the most effective strategy for delaying lithium plating. At 6C, reducing particle size is shown to be 3 and 20 times more effective than, respectively, adding open-porosity cracks and increasing surface roughness. A dual-layer electrode architecture combining gradations both for average properties and uniformities is eventually proposed to improve homogeneous material utilization and reduce degradation at high charge rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Assessment of Homogeneous Mixture Method Cavitation Models in Predicting Cavitation in Nozzle Flow

The homogeneous mixture method (HMM) is a popular class of models used in the computational prediction of cavitation. Several cavitation models have been developed for use with HMM to govern the development and destruction of vapor in a fluid system. Two models credited to Kunz and Schnerr–Sauer are studied in this paper. The goal of this work is to provide an assessment of the two cavitation submodels in their ability to predict cavitation in nozzle flow. Validation data were obtained via experiments which employ both passive cavitation detection, (PCD) via acoustic sensing and optical cavitation detection (OCD) via camera imaging. The experiments provide quantitative information on cavitation inception and qualitative information on the vapor in the nozzle. The results show that initial vapor formation is not predicted precisely but within reason. A sensitivity analysis of the models to input parameters shows that the Schnerr–Sauer method does not depend upon the estimation of nuclei size and number density. Small changes in the vapor formation rate but not the total vapor volume can be seen when weighting parameters are modified. In contrast, changes to the input parameters for the Kunz model greatly change the final total vapor volume prediction. The assessment also highlights the influence of vapor convection within the method. Finally, the analysis shows that if the fluid and nozzle walls do not support nuclei larger than 40 μm, the methods would still predict cavitation when indeed there would be none in practice.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessing Constitutive Models for Prediction of High-Temperature Flow Behavior with a Perspective of Alloy Development

The utility of different constitutive models describing high-temperature flow behavior has been evaluated from the perspective of alloy development. Strain compensated Arrhenius model, modified Johnson–Cook (MJC) model, model D8A and artificial neural network (ANN) have been used to describe flow behavior of different model alloys. These alloys are four grades of SS 316LN with different nitrogen contents ranging from 0.07 to 0.22%. Grades with 0.07%N and 0.22%N have been used to determine suitable material constants of the constitutive equations and also to train the ANN model. While the ANN model has been developed with chemical composition as a direct input, the MJC and D8A models have been amended to incorporate the effect of nitrogen content on flow behavior. The prediction capabilities of all models have been validated using the experimental data obtained from grades containing 0.11%N and 0.14%N. The comparative analysis demonstrates that ‘N-amended D8A’ and ‘N-amended MJC’ are preferable to the ANN model for predicting flow behavior of different grades of 316LN. The work provides detailed insights into the usual statistical error analysis technique and frames five additional criteria which must be considered when a model is analyzed from the perspective of alloy development.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Evaluation of experimentally measured and model-calculated pH for rock-brine-CO2 systems under geologic CO2 sequestration conditions

pH is an essential parameter for understanding the geochemical reactions that occur in rock-brine-CO2 systems when CO2 is injected into deep geologic formations for long-term storage. Due to a lack of reliable experimental methods, most laboratory studies conducted under geological CO2 sequestration (GCS) conditions have relied on thermodynamic modeling to estimate pH. The accuracy of these model predictions is typically uncertain. In our previous work, we have developed a method for pH determination by in-situ spectrophotometry. In the present work, we expanded the applicable pH range for this method and measured the pH of several rock-brine-CO2 systems at GCS conditions for five rock samples collected from ongoing GCS demonstration projects. Experimental measurements were compared with pH values calculated using several geochemical modeling approaches. The effect of different thermodynamic databases on the accuracy of model prediction was evaluated. Results indicate that the accuracy of model calculations is rock-dependent. For rocks comprised of carbonate and sandstone, model results generally agreed well with experimentally measured pH; however, for basalt, significant differences were observed. These discrepancies may be due to the models’ failure to fully account for certain reaction occurring between the basalt minerals the CO2-saturated brine solutions.

pH, carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2021

A screening model for predicting injection well pressure buildup and plume extent in CO 2 geologic storage projects

We present a new screening model for predicting injection well pressure buildup and CO 2 plume migration for CO 2 geologic sequestration projects. The model requires only limited information and is quite accurate when compared to detailed simulation results. Such models can assist project developers during the early days of project planning (e.g., for 45Q related projects), and also help regulators perform simple checks against detailed numerical models. The screening model consists of two correlations: one for injectivity index in terms of the slope of the CO 2 fractional flow curve, and the second for total storage efficiency within the footprint of plume as a function of gravity number and slope of the CO 2 fractional flow curve. Using these two correlations, as well as a knowledge of some basic reservoir characteristics and estimates of fluid properties from standard correlations, the injection-well pressure buildup and CO 2 plume extent in the formation can be readily estimated. Finally, the new correlations show a good match with the results of the underlying simulations, and also provide good agreement with independent calculations for two example problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Parameter uncertainty analysis of a biokinetic model of caesium

Parameter uncertainties for the biokinetic model of caesium (Cs) developed by Leggett et al. were inventoried and evaluated. The methods of parameter uncertainty analysis were used to assess the uncertainties of model predictions with the assumptions of model parameter uncertainties and distributions. Furthermore, the importance of individual model parameters was assessed by means of sensitivity analysis. The calculated uncertainties of model predictions were compared with human data of Cs measured in blood and in the whole body. It was found that propagating the derived uncertainties in model parameter values reproduced the range of bioassay data observed in human subjects at different times after intake. The maximum ranges, expressed as uncertainty factors (UFs) (defined as a square root of ratio between 97.5th and 2.5th percentiles) of blood clearance, whole-body retention and urinary excretion of Cs predicted at earlier time after intake were, respectively: 1.5, 1.0 and 2.5 at the first day; 1.8, 1.1 and 2.4 at Day 10 and 1.8, 2.0 and 1.8 at Day 100; for the late times (1000 d) after intake, the UFs were increased to 43, 24 and 31, respectively. The model parameters of transfer rates between kidneys and blood, muscle and blood and the rate of transfer from kidneys to urinary bladder content are most influential to the blood clearance and to the whole-body retention of Cs. For the urinary excretion, the parameters of transfer rates from urinary bladder content to urine and from kidneys to urinary bladder content impact mostly. The implication and effect on the estimated equivalent and effective doses of the larger uncertainty of 43 in whole-body retention in the later time, say, after Day 500 will be explored in a successive work in the framework of EURADOS.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Chemical Reactor Models to Predict Fluidized Bed Pyrolysis Yields of Biomass Feedstocks

A detailed biomass pyrolysis kinetics scheme is implemented in reduced-order reactor models to predict chemical species yields from a fluidized bed reactor. The biomass composition in terms of cellulose, hemicellulose, lignins, and extractives are determined for several biomass feedstocks. Model results are compared to yields measured from a two-inch diameter bench-scale fluidized bed reactor operating at fast pyrolysis conditions. The reduced-order chemical reactor models compare favorably with the experimental measurements and capture trends in product yields due to biomass compositional effects such as high ash content. This work offers a computationally inexpensive approach to predict the quality of biomass pyrolysis products in a timely manner. Source code for the reactor models along with a biomass composition web tool are made available online for future scientific research efforts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating performance and variability of NIF ICF experiments with deep learning

The parameter space involved in designing an inertial confinement fusion shot at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is massively multi-dimensional and the cost of a single shot makes a comprehensive set of sensitivity studies in the laboratory impractical. The use of machine learning to overcome these challenges has gained popularity and has had several successful applications by the scientific community. We extend on these efforts by training a neural network (NN) on information about the experimental design, engineering elements, and drive asymmetry to predict with uncertainty the neutron yield of an experiment. We find the measured and model predicted values are in good agreement, with an R 2 value of 0.91 for a randomly selected test dataset. Almost all the predicted 95% credible intervals contain the corresponding measured value for both training and test datasets. We identify correlations picked up by the NN between the shot design, yield, and variability and use them to motivate shot sensitivity studies. The first shot to exceed the Lawson-like ignition criteria (N210808) was conducted at the NIF and subsequent shots studied the design’s robustness. In a follow-up shot to N210808, our model predicts capsule quality to be the main performance degradation mechanism that prevented the shot from repeating previous performance levels. Shot N221204 was the first shot to exceed a target energy gain of 1. Our model predicts increased yield with reduced coast time for a N221204 study and greater variability for designs with lower peak powers at constant yield. The model’s fast prediction speed and uncertainty prediction are useful for identifying interesting design paths that could warrant further investigation with conventional simulations to search for robust high yield designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of nano/submicro pores in suspension plasma sprayed YSZ coatings

Nano-submicro pores could considerably influence the coating performances and thus should be carefully designed for the intended applications. However, it is challenging to characterize accurately such small pores in coatings. In this study, YSZ coatings were firstly manufactured by suspension plasma spray (SPS) and the nano-submicro pores in as-prepared coatings were investigated using Ultra-small-angle X-ray scattering (USAXS). Afterwards, a multivariate analysis on the effect of five different process parameters was carried out. The two main results showed that: 1) the nano-submicro pores content in coatings has a negative correlation with suspension mass load and powder size, and a positive correlation with spray distance, spray step, and substrate surface roughness; 2) suspension mass load is the main factor affecting the content of nano-submicro pores. Then, a mathematical model for the prediction of nanosubmicro pores was developed, and the control of nano-submicro pores content by using the predictive model was presented. Finally, the sintering effect on the evolution of nano-submicro pores was studied using USAXS as well.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Kinetic Model for Predicting Trace Gas Uptake and Reaction

A model is developed to describe trace gas uptake and reaction with applications to aerosols and microdroplets. Gas uptake by the liquid is formulated as a coupled equilibria that links gas, surface, and bulk regions of the droplet or solution. Previously, this framework was used in explicit stochastic reaction-diffusion simulations to predict the reactive uptake kinetics of ozone with droplets containing aqueous aconitic acid, maleic acid, and sodium nitrite. With the use of prior data and simulation results, a new equation for the uptake coefficient is derived, which accounts for both surface and bulk reactions. Lambert W functions are used to obtain closed form solutions to the integrated rate laws for the multiphase kinetics; similar to previous expressions that describe Michaelis-Menten enzyme kinetics. Together these equations couple interface and bulk processes over a wide range of conditions and do not require many of the limiting assumptions needed to apply resistor model formulations to explain trace gas uptake and reaction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive behavior and different thermal experiences of real people: A Bayesian neural network approach to thermal preference prediction and classification

Various observed and unquantifiable factors affect the thermal comfort of occupants in indoor environments and can lead to high uncertainty in the prediction and classification of their thermal preferences. The behavioral adaptation of occupants, by operating window systems for example, changes their thermal experience and expectations and therefore contributes to even higher prediction uncertainty. In this study, we applied a Bayesian neural network (BNN) algorithm to build a predictive model for occupant thermal preference using the ASHRAE Global Thermal Comfort Database II. The Bayesian method allows us to synthesize prior knowledge and available measurements into a unified modeling framework. It also offers a way to express and quantify uncertainty. Here we have performed a systematic study to test the efficiency and robustness of different BNN model configurations. In this study, the results show that the BNN model outperforms conventional thermal comfort models such as Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and adaptive comfort model. The BNN model tends to produce more confident “prefer cooler” predictions with high possibility and low uncertainty. In contrast, the BNN model produces less certain predictions for “prefer no change” and “prefer warmer” across all occupants. Our findings suggest that linking occupants’ subjective evaluation measures and window opening/closing behavior to thermal comfort modeling effectively improves predictive performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A time-dependent chloride diffusion model for predicting initial corrosion time of reinforced concrete with slag addition

The effect of granulated blast furnace slag (GBFS) addition on the threshold chloride concentration (TCC) for rebar corrosion was investigated. A modified diffusion model, coupled with a time-dependent effective diffusion coefficient and surface chloride concentration, was proposed to predict the chloride profile. The corrosion initiation time was estimated based on the model predictions and the measured TCC. The results indicate that adding GBFS decreases the TCC by lowering the pH value of the pore solution. The evolution of corrosion potential and current density is found to obey a 3-parameter Weibull distribution. MIP tests show that adding GBFS contributes to refinement of pore structure by decreasing the fraction of large capillary pores. The time-dependent model exhibits good predictive strength and helps understand how GBFS addition delays the corrosion initiation by retarding the chloride diffusion, though a lower TCC is obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Prediction of the visual impact of motorways using GIS

Large scale transportation projects can adversely affect the visual perception of environmental quality and require adequate visual impact assessment. In this study, we investigated the effects of the characteristics of the road project and the character of the existing landscape on the perceived visual impact of motorways, and developed a GIS-based prediction model based on the findings. An online survey using computer-visualised scenes of different motorway and landscape scenarios was carried out to obtain perception-based judgements on the visual impact. Motorway scenarios simulated included the baseline scenario without road, original motorway, motorways with timber noise barriers, transparent noise barriers and tree screen; different landscape scenarios were created by changing land cover of buildings and trees in three distance zones. The landscape content of each scene was measured in GIS. The result shows that presence of a motorway especially with the timber barrier significantly decreases the visual quality of the view. The resulted visual impact tends to be lower where it is less visually pleasant with more buildings in the view, and can be slightly reduced by the visual absorption effect of the scattered trees between the motorway and the viewpoint. Based on the survey result, eleven predictors were identified for the visual impact prediction model which was applied in GIS to generate maps of visual impact of motorways in different scenarios. The proposed prediction model can be used to achieve efficient and reliable assessment of visual impact of motorways. - Highlights: • Motorways induce significant visual impact especially with timber noise barriers. • Visual impact is negatively correlated with amount of buildings in the view. • Visual impact is positively correlated with percentage of trees in the view. • Perception-based motorway visual impact prediction model using mapped predictors • Predicted visual impacts in different scenarios are mapped in GIS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved Understanding of Coupled Water and Carbon Cycle Processes through Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area(s): This white paper addresses how explainable machine learning (ML) algorithms can improve insights gained from complex data (Focal Area 3). We will also address how ML approaches related to sensor compression and low energy AI hardware can be used for efficient data acquisition (Focal Area 1). Science Challenge: We will focus on the coupled water cycle and carbon cycle processes in terrestrial ecosystems and terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. Thus, our approaches will be centered around several data-model integration challenges indicated in EESD strategic plans for two science focus areas: Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Hydrobiogeochemistry. We can use AI to correct systematic model errors due to biases in either data or model structure/processes. Error patterns in model predictions usually vary by region, model, season etc. But there are systematic patterns in them. e.g., soil moisture tends to be overestimated in the arid western continental United States underestimated in wetter eastern USA; some land surface models tend to underestimate moisture in wet seasons and overestimate in dry seasons. Moreover, the consequences of extreme events (e.g., drought, extreme flooding, storm surges associated with tropical storms, hurricanes) on carbon cycle processes are not well represented in ecosystem and Earth system models. Redox-sensitive processes (e.g., rapid oxidation/reduction of iron and other redox-sensitive elements in soil microsites subjected to fluctuated hydrology) in terrestrial-aquatic interfaces further challenge model predictions of hot-spots (and hot-moments) due to poor understanding of underlying mechanisms. Thus, AI/ML approaches can be used to learn patterns in the data and model errors and use them to build model equations and correct process-based model errors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Coupling in silico microbial models with reactive transport models to predict the fate of contaminants in the subsurface (Final Report)

This project successfully accomplished its goal of coupling genome-scale metabolic models with hydrological and geochemical models to predict the activity of subsurface microorganisms during uranium bioremediation. Furthermore, it was demonstrated how this modeling approach can be used to develop new strategies to optimize bioremediation. The approach of coupling genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport modeling is now well enough established that it has been adopted by other DOE investigators studying uranium bioremediation. Furthermore, the basic principles developed during our studies will be applicable to much broader investigations of microbial activities, not only for other types of bioremediation, but microbial metabolism in diversity of environments. This approach has the potential to make an important contribution to predicting the impact of environmental perturbations on the cycling of carbon and other biogeochemical cycles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗