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At least 955 records · Page 53

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach

This study implements a data-intensive supervised ML approach through a quasi-experimental framework with the objective of quantifying the impact of oil and gas operator-specific proprietary data on ML-based predictive model performance relative to using oil and gas datasets that may be more commonly publicly available. The models are designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottom-hole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well completion attributes. Model performance is quantified on holdout test data to evaluate how each dataset affects resulting model variant performance.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Noise characteristics of upper surface blown configurations: Analytical Studies

Noise and flow results of upper surface blown configurations were analyzed. The dominant noise source mechanisms were identified from experimental data. From far-field noise data for various geometric and operational parameters, an empirical noise prediction program was developed and evaluated by comparing predicted results with experimental data from other tests. USB aircraft compatibility studies were conducted using the described noise prediction and a cruise performance data base. A final design aircraft was selected and theory was developed for the noise from the trailing edge wake assuming it as a highly sheared layer.

Reddy, N. N.↗

Analytical and experimental study of mean flow and turbulence characteristics inside the passages of an axial flow inducer

The inviscid and viscid effects existing within the passages of a three bladed axial flow inducer operating at a flow coefficient of 0.065 are investigated. The blade static pressure and blade limiting streamline angle distributions were determined and the three components of mean velocity, turbulence intensities, and turbulence stresses were measured at locations inside the inducer blade passage utilizing a rotating three sensor hotwire probe. Applicable equations were derived for the hotwire data reduction analysis and solved numerically to obtain the appropriate flow parameters. The three dimensional inviscid flow in the inducer was predicted by numerically solving the exact equations of motion, and the three dimensional viscid flow was predicted by incorporating the dominant viscous terms into the exact equations. The analytical results are compared with the experimental measurements and design values where appropriate. Radial velocities are found to be of the same order as axial velocities within the inducer passage, confirming the highly three dimensional characteristic of inducer flow. Total relative velocity distribution indicate a substantial velocity deficiency near the tip at mid-passage which expands significantly as the flow proceeds toward the inducer trailing edge. High turbulence intensities and turbulence stresses are concentrated within this core region. Considerable wake diffusion occurs immediately downstream of the inducer trailing edge to decay this loss core. Evidence of boundary layer interactions, blade blockage effects, radially inward flows, annulus wall effects, and backflows are all found to exist within the long, narrow passages of the inducer.

Gorton, C. A.↗

Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections that Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model

In our previous paper we reported the results of modeling of 14 selected well -observed strong halo coronal mass ejection (CME) events using the WSA -ENLIL cone model combination. Cone model input parameters were obtained from white light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al. This work verified that coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival time prediction. In contrast to Taktakishvili et al., where we started the analysis by looking for clear CME signatures in the data and then proceeded to model the interplanetary consequences at 1 AU, in the present paper we start by generating a list of observed geomagnetic storm events and then work our way back to remote solar observations and carry out the corresponding CME modeling. The approach used in this study is addressing space weather forecasting and operational needs. We analyzed 36 particularly strong geomagnetic storms, then tried to associate them with particular CMEs using SOHO/LASCO catalogue, and finally modeled these CMEs using WSA-ENLIL cone model. Recently, Pulkkinen et al. developed a novel method for automatic determination of cone model parameters. We employed both analytical and automatic methods to determine cone model input parameters. We examined the CME arrival times and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for both techniques. The results of the simulations are compared with the ACE satellite observations. This comparison demonstrated that WSA -ENLIL model combination with coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival times for this set of 'geoeffective" CME events as well.

Taktakishvili, A.↗

Analysis of the Injection of a Heated, Turbulent Jet into a Moving Mainstream, with Emphasis on a Thermal Discharge in a Waterway

An experimental and theoretical investigation was undertaken to study the trajectory and growth of thermal effluents having a range of discharge velocities and temperatures. The discharge of a turbulent effluent into a waterway was mathematically modeled as a submerged jet injection process by using an integral method which accounts for natural fluid mechanisms such as turbulence, entrainment, buoyancy, and heat transfer. The analytical results are supported by experimental data and demonstrate the usefulness of the theory for estimating the location and size of the effluent with respect to the discharge point. The capability of predicting jet flow properties, as well as two- and three-dimensional jet paths, was enhanced by obtaining the jet cross-sectional area during the solution of the conservation equations. Realistic estimates of temperature in the effluent were acquired by accounting for heat losses in the jet flow due to forced convection and to entrainment of free-stream fluid into the jet.

Campbell, J. F.↗

Analysis of radiometer calibration effects with TOUCHSTONE

The microwave circuit analysis program TOUCHSTONE is used to study two effects of importance in radiometer calibration. The two effects are impedance mismatches at the antenna-air and cold load-air interfaces and dissipatives losses, which radiate thermal noise into the system. The results predicted by TOUCHSTONE are shown to be in very close agreement with earlier results obtained by purely analytical methods. The techniques used in establishing the circuit models and in processing the resulting data are described in detail.

Stanley, William D.↗

The lightcraft project

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute has been developing a transatmospheric 'Lightcraft' technology which uses beamed laser energy to propel advanced shuttle craft to orbit. In the past several years, Rensselaer students have analyzed the unique combined-cycle Lightcraft engine, designed a small unmanned Lightcraft Technology Demonstrator, and conceptualized larger manned Lightcraft - to name just a few of the interrelated design projects. The 1990-91 class carried out preliminary and detailed design efforts for a one-person 'Mercury' Lightcraft, using computer-aided design and finite-element structural modeling techniques. In addition, they began construction of a 2.6 m-diameter, full-scale engineering prototype mockup. The mockup will be equipped with three robotic legs that 'kneel' for passenger entry and exit. More importantly, the articulated tripod gear is crucial for accurately pointing at, and tracking the laser relay mirrors, a maneuver that must be performed just prior to liftoff. Also accomplished were further design improvements on a 6-inch-diameter Lightcraft model (for testing in RPI's hypersonic tunnel), and new laser propulsion experiments. The resultant experimental data will be used to calibrate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) codes and analytical laser propulsion models that can simulate vehicle/engine flight conditions along a transatmospheric boost trajectory. These efforts will enable the prediction of distributed aerodynamic and thruster loads over the entire full-scale spacecraft.

Messitt, Don G.↗

Flow analysis and design optimization methods for nozzle-afterbody of a hypersonic vehicle

This report summarizes the methods developed for the aerodynamic analysis and the shape optimization of the nozzle-afterbody section of a hypersonic vehicle. Initially, exhaust gases were assumed to be air. Internal-external flows around a single scramjet module were analyzed by solving the 3D Navier-Stokes equations. Then, exhaust gases were simulated by a cold mixture of Freon and Ar. Two different models were used to compute these multispecies flows as they mixed with the hypersonic airflow. Surface and off-surface properties were successfully compared with the experimental data. The Aerodynamic Design Optimization with Sensitivity analysis was then developed. Pre- and postoptimization sensitivity coefficients were derived and used in this quasi-analytical method. These coefficients were also used to predict inexpensively the flow field around a changed shape when the flow field of an unchanged shape was given. Starting with totally arbitrary initial afterbody shapes, independent computations were converged to the same optimum shape, which rendered the maximum axial thrust.

Baysal, O.↗

Toward a dynamic-thermodynamic assimilation of satellite surface temperature in numerical atmospheric models

An assimilation technique is described in which satellite-observed surface skin temperature tendencies are used in a model surface energy budget so that the predicted rate of temperature change in the model more closely agrees with the satellite observations. Both visible and infrared GOES satellite data are used in the assimilation. The technique is based on analytically recovering surface moisture from similarity expressions derived from an evapotranspiration residual obtained as a difference between the unadjusted model evapotranspiration and the satellite-inferred evapotranspiration. The technique has application in regional-scale models where surface parameters such as root zone moisture, soil moisture, etc., are unknown. It is assumed that the largest error in the surface energy budget is in the evapotranspiration term. Two tests are given for the technique, first, a one-dimensional test against FIFE data and, second, a three-dimensional test over Oklahoma. In these cases the technique appears to correctly adjust the model response to agree better with observations.

Mcnider, Richard T.↗

Design of a High Thermal Gradient Bridgman Furnace

The Advanced Automated Directional Solidification Furnace (AADSF) is a Bridgman-Stockbarger microgravity processing facility, designed and manifested to first fly aboard the second United States Microgravity Payload (USMP-2) Space Shuttle mission. The AADSF was principally designed to produce high axial thermal gradients, and is particularly suitable for metals solidification experiments, including non-dilute alloys. To accommodate a wider range of experimental conditions, the AADSF is equipped with a reconfigurable gradient zone. The overall design of the AADSF and the relationship between gradient zone design and furnace performance are described. Parametric thermal analysis was performed and used to select gradient zone design features that fulfill the high thermal gradient requirements of the USMP-2 experiment. The thermal model and analytical procedure, and parametric results leading to the first flight gradient zone configuration, are presented. Performance for the USMP-2 flight experiment is also predicted, and analysis results are compared to test data.

LeCroy, J. E.↗

Acoustic Treatment Design Scaling Methods: Overview, Results, and Recommendations - Volume 1

Scale model fan rigs that simulate new generation ultra-high-bypass engines at about 1/5-scale are achieving increased importance as development vehicles for the design of low-noise aircraft engines. Testing at small scale allows the tests to be performed in existing anechoic wind tunnels, which provides an accurate simulation of the important effects of aircraft forward motion on the noise generation. The ability to design, build, and test miniaturized acoustic treatment panels on scale model fan rigs representative of the fullscale engine provides not only a cost-savings, but an opportunity to optimize the treatment by allowing tests of different designs. The primary objective of this study was to develop methods that will allow scale model fan rigs to be successfully used as acoustic treatment design tools. The study focuses on finding methods to extend the upper limit of the frequency range of impedance prediction models and acoustic impedance measurement methods for subscale treatment liner designs, and confirm the predictions by correlation with measured data. This phase of the program had as a goal doubling the upper limit of impedance measurement from 6 kHz to 12 kHz. The program utilizes combined analytical and experimental methods to achieve the objectives.

Kraft, R. E.↗

Low-Speed Fan Noise Reduction With Trailing Edge Blowing

An experimental proof-of-concept test was conducted to demonstrate reduction of rotor-stator interaction noise through rotor-trailing edge blowing. The velocity deficit from the viscous wake of the rotor blades was reduced by injecting air into the wake from a trailing edge slot. Composite hollow rotor blades with internal flow passages were designed based on analytical codes modeling the internal flow. The hollow blade with interior guide vanes creates flow channels through which externally supplied air flows from the root of the blade to the trailing edge. The impact of the rotor wake-stator interaction on the acoustics was also predicted analytically. The Active Noise Control Fan, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center, was used as the proof- of-concept test bed. In-duct mode and farfield directivity acoustic data were acquired at blowing rates (defined as mass supplied to trailing edge blowing system divided by fan mass flow) ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 percent. The first three blade passing frequency harmonics at fan rotational speeds of 1700 to 1900 rpm were analyzed. The acoustic tone power levels (PWL) in the inlet and exhaust were reduced 11.5 and -0.1, 7.2 and 11.4, 11.8 and 19.4 PWL dB, respectively. The farfield tone power levels at the first three harmonics were reduced 5.4, 10.6, and 12.4 dB PWL. At selected conditions, two-component hotwire and stator vane unsteady surface pressures were acquired. These measurements illustrate the physics behind the noise reduction.

Sutliff, Daniel L.↗

Experimentation Toward the Analysis of Gear Noise Sources Controlled by Sliding Friction and Surface Roughness

In helicopters and other rotorcraft, the gearbox is a major source of noise and vibration (N&V). The two N&V excitation mechanisms are the relative displacements between mating gears (transmission errors) and the friction associated with sliding between gear teeth. Historically, transmission errors have been minimized via improved manufacturing accuracies and tooth modifications. Yet, at high torque loads, noise levels are still relatively high though transmission errors might be somewhat minimal. This suggests that sliding friction is indeed a dominant noise source for high power density rotorcraft gearboxes. In reality, friction source mechanism is associated with surface roughness, lubrication regime properties, time-varying friction forces/torques and gear-mesh interface dynamics. Currently, the nature of these mechanisms is not well understood, while there is a definite need for analytical tools that incorporate sliding resistance and surface roughness, and predict their effects on the vibro- acoustic behavior of gears. Toward this end, an experiment was conducted to collect sound and vibration data on the NASA Glenn Gear-Noise Rig. Three iterations of the experiment were accomplished: Iteration 1 tested a baseline set of gears to establish a benchmark. Iteration 2 used a gear-set with low surface asperities to reduce the sliding friction excitation. Iteration 3 incorporated low viscosity oil with the baseline set of gears to examine the effect of lubrication. The results from this experiment will contribute to a two year project in collaboration with the Ohio State University to develop the necessary mathematical and computer models for analyzing geared systems and explain key physical phenomena seen in experiments. Given the importance of sliding friction in the gear dynamic and vibro-acoustic behavior of rotorcraft gearboxes, there is considerable potential for research & developmental activities. Better models and understanding will lead to quiet and reliable gear designs, as well as the selection of optimal manufacturing processes.

Asnani, Vivake M.↗

Combining Model-Based and Feature-Driven Diagnosis Approaches - A Case Study on Electromechanical Actuators

Model-based diagnosis typically uses analytical redundancy to compare predictions from a model against observations from the system being diagnosed. However this approach does not work very well when it is not feasible to create analytic relations describing all the observed data, e.g., for vibration data which is usually sampled at very high rates and requires very detailed finite element models to describe its behavior. In such cases, features (in time and frequency domains) that contain diagnostic information are extracted from the data. Since this is a computationally intensive process, it is not efficient to extract all the features all the time. In this paper we present an approach that combines the analytic model-based and feature-driven diagnosis approaches. The analytic approach is used to reduce the set of possible faults and then features are chosen to best distinguish among the remaining faults. We describe an implementation of this approach on the Flyable Electro-mechanical Actuator (FLEA) test bed.

Narasimhan, Sriram↗

Experimental, Computational, Theoretical and Analytical Investigation of Flow Boiling in Reduced Gravity

Two-phase thermal management systems are far superior to their single-phase counterparts because of their ability to capitalize on the coolant’s both sensible and latent heats, thereby yielding orders of magnitude higher heat transfer coefficients and smaller system footprints. A vital knowledge necessary for their implementation in future space systems is performance in microgravity. Long-duration microgravity experiments are necessary to obtain reliable databases, which would then be used to build reliable predictive tools. To achieve this goal, investigators at the Purdue University Boiling and Two-Phase Flow Laboratory (PU-BTPFL) and the NASA Glenn Research Center (NASA-GRC) have been collaborating towards the development of the Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment (FBCE) and eventual execution onboard the International Space Station (ISS). FBCE has now matured to a point where it is ready for transport to the ISS, where first tests will be conducted using the Flow Boiling Module (FBM). In preparation for the ISS tests, a series of pre-launch Mission Sequence Tests (MSTs) was performed at GRC in Earth gravity with FBM mounted in a vertical upflow orientation using n-perfluorohexane as working fluid. The pre-launch tests included variations of flow rate, surface heat flux, inlet conditions, and both single-sided and double-sided wall heating. This presentation will summarize experimental results from these tests as well as both analytic and theoretical tools for prediction of two-phase heat transfer coefficient and critical heat flux (CHF). Also discussed will be an assessment of predictive accuracy of these tools against the experimental data.

Mission Sequence tests↗

The Ares I-1 Flight Test--Paving the Road for the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle

In accordance with the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration and the nation's desire to again send humans to explore beyond Earth orbit, NASA has been tasked to send human beings to the moon, Mars, and beyond. It has been 30 years since the United States last designed and built a human-rated launch vehicle. NASA is now building the Ares I crew launch vehicle, which will loft the Orion crew exploration vehicle into orbit, and the Ares V cargo launch vehicle, which will launch the Lunar Surface Access Module and Earth departure stage to rendezvous Orion for missions to the moon. NASA has marshaled unique resources from the government and private sectors to perform the technically and programmatically complex work of delivering astronauts to orbit early next decade, followed by heavy cargo late next decade. Our experiences with Saturn and the Shuttle have taught us the value of adhering to sound systems engineering, such as the "test as you fly" principle, while applying aerospace best practices and lessons learned. If we are to fly humans safely aboard a launch vehicle, we must employ a variety of methodologies to reduce the technical, schedule, and cost risks inherent in the complex business of space transportation. During the Saturn development effort, NASA conducted multiple demonstration and verification flight tests to prove technology in its operating environment before relying upon it for human spaceflight. Less testing on the integrated Shuttle system did not reduce cost or schedule. NASA plans a progressive series of demonstration (ascent), verification (orbital), and mission flight tests to supplement ground research and high-altitude subsystem testing with real-world data, factoring the results of each test into the next one. In this way, sophisticated analytical models and tools, many of which were not available during Saturn and Shuttle, will be calibrated and we will gain confidence in their predictions, as we gain hands-on experience in operating the first of two new launch vehicle systems. The Ares I-1 flight test vehicle (FTV) will incorporate a mix of flight and mockup hardware, reflecting a configuration similar in mass, weight, and shape (outer mold line or OML) to the operational vehicle. It will be powered by a four-segment reusable solid rocket booster (RSRB), which is currently in Shuttle inventory, and will be modified to include a fifth, inert segment that makes it approximately the same size and weight as the five segment RSRB, which will be available for the second flight test in 2012. The Ares I-1 vehicle configuration is shown. Each test flight has specific objectives appropriate to the design analysis cycle in progress. The Ares I-1 demonstration test, slated for April 2009, gives NASA its first opportunity to gather critical data about the flight dynamics of the integrated launch vehicle stack, understand how to control its roll during flight, and other characterize the severe stage separation environment that the upper stage will experience during future operational flights. NASA also will begin the process of modifying the launch infrastructure and fine-tuning ground and mission operational scenarios, as NASA transitions from the Shuttle to the Ares/Orion system.

Davis, Stephan R.↗

Review—Effects of Solution and Alloy Composition on Critical Crevice Temperature

Critical temperature for localized corrosion can be a good design parameter because localized corrosion is not likely to occur below that temperature. The critical temperature depends on alloy composition, microstructure, and environment chemistry (including its redox potential). This paper reviews the literature on critical temperature for localized corrosion, expressed either as Critical Pitting Temperature (CPT) or Critical Crevice Temperature (CCT). A history of various testing methods is presented. Different approaches for modeling the temperature of transition to active pit growth are reviewed, including probabilistic aspects of critical temperature. A semi-empirical, electrolyte-based, model is described that can be useful in predicting CCT in service environments that differ from standard laboratory test environments. The model predictions are compared to experimental data for various alloys. The effect of solvent on CCT/CPT is described briefly and future avenues of research are recommended.

02 PETROLEUM↗