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At least 955 records · Page 53

Initial Results from Boron Powder Injection Experiments in WEST Lower Single Null L-mode Plasmas

Using a recently installed impurity powder dropper (IPD), boron powder (< 150 μm) was injected into lower single null (LSN) L-mode discharges in WEST. IPDs possibly enable real-time wall conditioning of the plasma-facing components and may help to facilitate H-mode access in the full-tungsten environment of WEST. The discharges in this experiment featured Ip = 0.5 MA, BT = 3.7 T, q95 = 4.3, tpulse = 12–30 s, ne,0 ~ 4×1019 m-2, and PLHCD ~ 4.5 MW. Estimates of the deuterium and impurity particle fluxes, derived from a combination of visible spectroscopy measurements and their corresponding S/XB coefficients, showed decreases of ~ 50% in O+, N+, and C+ populations during powder injection and a moderate reduction of these low-Z impurities (~ 50%) and W (~ 10%) in the discharges that followed powder injection. Along with the improved wall conditions, WEST discharges with B powder injection observed improved confinement, as the stored energy WMHD, neutron rate, and electron temperature Te increased significantly (10–25% for WMHD and 60–200% for the neutron rate) at constant input power. These increases in confinement scale up with the powder drop rate and are likely due to the suppression of ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence from changes in Zeff and/or modifications to the electron density profile.

Boronization↗

Hanford Reach Fall Chinook Salmon Productivity Analysis, Brood Years 1975–2016

Updating the Hanford Reach fall Chinook salmon productivity analysis to include seven additional years of data (BY 2010–2016), including three years of record escapements (>150,000 adults), reaffirmed the highly productive nature of this population and the positive effect of flow fluctuation constraints as implemented at Priest Rapids Dam by the VBSA and HRFCPP. The addition of several years of high escapements also revealed that competition among juveniles (and not spawning habitat limitations) is likely the mechanism driving density dependence in the Hanford Reach. The addition of the high escapement brood years also provided evidence for the high recruitment capacity of the population. As such, the WDFW may consider increasing the maximum escapement goal from 42,000 adults to 49,000 adults, which would be more in-line with SMSY as estimated from this update. Given the in-river protections that are in place as part of the HRFCPP, ocean conditions appear to be the primary factor controlling adult production. Therefore, the success of any additional management actions taken in freshwater are likely to be dependent on survival in the ocean. As such, the most effective management actions may be those that limit juvenile competition and density dependent growth effects in the Hanford Reach. Limiting competition would be expected to increase growth, resulting in larger smolts that would be less likely to suffer size-dependent mortality in the marine environment, even during years of poor ocean conditions. Increasing terminal harvest rates when high escapements are anticipated (from downstream dam counts) is one management option that could help to curtail juvenile competition.

Harnish, Ryan A.↗

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interplanetary electrons - What is the strength of the Jupiter source

On the basis of conservative assumptions, a phenomenological approach is used to address the source strength of Jupiter for interplanetary electrons. It is estimated that Jupiter emits approximately 10 to the 24th - 10 to the 26th electrons per sec with energies in excess of 6 MeV, which sources may be compared with the population of approximately 3 x 10 to the 28th electrons of the same energy in the Jovian outer magnetosphere. It is concluded that Jupiter accelerates particles at a rate exceeding that of ordinary trapped particle dynamic processes.

Fillius, W.↗

Radio occultation of Jupiter's ring - Bounds on optical depth and particle size and a comparison with infrared and optical results

A comparison of Voyager 1 data of the Jovian ring at radio, infrared and optical wavelengths suggests a population density that either falls more rapidly than the inverse square of the linear size, or is sharply bounded in maximum particle size. A fragmentation power law is used to estimate a minimum particle radius of 1-2 microns, and a specific model is developed which consists of a power law distribution of lossless or slightly absorbent Mie scatterers with a refractive index near 1.62, a power law index of -3.5, and a minimum particle size of 1.5 microns. The maximum particle radius is not critical, provided that it is greater than 4 microns, and the power law polydispersion of lossless or low absorbent Mie scatterers is consistent with previously reported observations as long as the parameter size minimum is 20 and the power index is about -3.5.

Tyler, G. L.↗

Spectroscopic aspects of differential method for sounding gas composition of the atmosphere

The problems concerning the dynamics of populations of the sounded atmospheric gas molecule levels taking into account the nonmonochromatic character of radiation, durations of exciting and sounding pulses, rates of relaxation of excited vibration-rotation states population along different channels in a natural multicomponent mixture of gases and air were investigated. The problems of spectroscopic software, completeness and accuracy of the initial spectroscopic information, information on channels and rates of relaxation from the viewpoint of developing specific schemes of sounding are discussed. The values of deviations of vibration-rotation level populations of some atmospheric molecules from their equilibrium value at simultaneous action of double frequency radiation on the sounding path and the corresponding dynamic variation of lidar return amplitude were estimated. The importance of nonlinear spectrosopic effects in the lidar return value variation at sounding radiation frequency equaling the resonance frequency of vibration-rotation transition in the problem on sounding the humidity profiles and concentrations of gaseous pollutants was also estimated.

Zuev, V. V.↗

Multiple Transits during a Single Conjunction: Identifying Transiting Circumbinary Planetary Candidates from TESS

We present results of a study on identifying circumbinary planet candidates that produce multiple transits during one conjunction with eclipsing binary systems. The occurrence of these transits enables us to estimate the candidates’ orbital periods, which is crucial as the periods of the currently known transiting circumbinary planets are significantly longer than the typical observational baseline of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). Combined with the derived radii, it also provides valuable information needed for follow-up observations and subsequent confirmation of a large number of circumbinary planet candidates from TESS. Motivated by the discovery of the 1108 day circumbinary planet Kepler-1647, we show the application of this technique to four of Kepler’s circumbinary planets that produce such transits. Our results indicate that in systems where the circumbinary planet is on a low-eccentricity orbit, the estimated planetary orbital period is within <10%–20% of the true value. This estimate is derived from photometric observations spanning less than 5% of the planet’s period, demonstrating the strong capability of the technique. Capitalizing on the current and future eclipsing binaries monitored by NASA’s TESS mission, we estimate that hundreds of circumbinary planet candidates producing multiple transits during one conjunction will be detected in the TESS data. Such a large sample will enable statistical understanding of the population of planets orbiting binary stars and shed new light on their formation and evolution.

Veselin Kostov↗

Central Africa Energy: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Explore Flared Gas as an Energy Source Alternative to Biomass in Central Africa

Much of Central Africa's economy is centered on oil production. Oil deposits lie below vast amounts of compressed natural gas. The latter is often flared off during oil extraction due to a lack of the infrastructure needed to utilize it for productive energy generation. Though gas flaring is discouraged by many due to its contributions to greenhouse emissions, it represents a waste process and is rarely tracked or recorded in this region. In contrast to this energy waste, roughly 80% of Africa's population lacks access to electricity and in turn uses biomass such as wood for heat and light. In addition to the dangers incurred from collecting and using biomass, the practice commonly leads to ecological change through the acquisition of wood from forests surrounding urban areas. The objective of this project was to gain insight on domestic energy usage in Central Africa, specifically Angola, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo. This was done through an analysis of deforestation, an estimation of gas flared, and a suitability study for the infrastructure needed to realize the natural gas resources. The energy from potential natural gas production was compared to the energy equivalent of the biomass being harvested. A site suitability study for natural gas pipeline routes from flare sites to populous locations was conducted to assess the feasibility of utilizing natural gas for domestic energy needs. Analyses and results were shared with project partners, as well as this project's open source approach to assessing the energy sector. Ultimately, Africa's growth demands energy for its people, and natural gas is already being produced by the flourishing petroleum industry in numerous African countries. By utilizing this gas, Africa could reduce flaring, recuperate the financial and environmental loss that flaring accounts for, and unlock a plentiful domestic energy source for its people. II. Introduction Background Africa is home to numerous burgeoning economies; a significant number rely on oil production as their primary source of revenue. Relative to its size and population density, the continent has a wealth of natural resources, including oil and natural gas deposits. The exploration of these resources is not a new endeavor, but rather one that spans decades, up to a century in some places. Their resources, if realized, could provide a great means of economic and social mobility for the people of Africa. Currently, Africa represents about 12 % of the energy market, yet at the same time, consumes only 3 % of the world's energy (Kasekende 2009). The higher

Jones, Amber↗

Determining Planetary Boundary Layer Height by Micro-pulse Lidar with Validation by UAV Measurements

Planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is often used to characterize the structure of the lower atmosphere. Aerosol lidar, a ground-based remote sensing method, provides the vertical distribution of aerosol at a high temporal resolution observation data, from which, the PBL structure and the position of the PBL top can be comprehensively studied. PBLH determination with lidar data depends primarily on the characteristic turbulent motions in the atmosphere and the geophysical location. However, lidar determination of PBLH over densely populated subtropical locations has rarely been discussed; thus, developing retrieval techniques suitable to these areas is necessary. In this study, four PBLH determination methods (Gradient, δ–threshold, Haar wavelet transform, and hybrid image processing) are applied to estimate the PBLH from lidar observations over an urban area in East Asia, and one—the Gradient method—relied on potential temperature measurements from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights to validate our results. Our results indicate that a combination of the gradient method and δ-threshold method can provide better results, in terms of diurnal pattern, than using either method individually. Furthermore, the Haar wavelet and the Hybrid image processing can detect the PBL development comparably well, but both methods are dependent on their initial conditions and optimized algorithm settings. In addition, the accompanying UAV observations are conclusively shown to have a high degree of efficacy for validating the lidar data. This research highlights that a combination of PBLH determination methods can better describe the PBLH evolution throughout a day in some cases, while in others less common determination methods are proving useful, and a suite of retrieval methods should still be explored for precisely mapping the PBL in densely populated subtropical areas.

Yueh-Chen Wang↗

Generation of Venus' nightside ionospheric structure by particle streams from cosmoids

A newly discovered source of energetic particle streams directed at Venus' nightside may cause several exosphere phenomena. The streams evolve from dispersed cosmoids, a surreptitious population of meteoroids in nearly hyperbolic orbits, measured with three dust experiments on Pioneer 10/11. Loose fragile comet-like ensembles of frozen volatile material, they are orders of magnitude more populous than short-period meteoroids. Dispersion is forced near a planet masking the meteor signature at Earth, but recently terrestrial exosphere interactions have been detected principally from VLF radar returns and as suddenly formed layers of neutral sodium and iron probed by lidar. Venus influx is estimated greater than 10(exp -14)(g)/((sq cm)(s)) with nightside directed kinetic power of greater than 0.3 (erg)/((sq cm)s)). Compared to Earth, Venus, lacking a dipole field with almost no rotation, has a readily recognized set of nightside interaction signatures of these downward energetic particle streams: i.e., density depressions of the neutral thermosphere, hydrogen and helium bulges, a non-disappearing ionosphere, electron holes, nightglows, VLF bursty signals, and local magnetic fields. From Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) measurements, the cosmoid population, its temporal and solar azimuthal variation may be determined.

Dubin, M.↗

Spacesuit Fit and Mobility Assessments by Digital Human Modeling

Spacesuit Fit and Mobility Assessments by Digital Human Modeling K. Han Kim (Leidos, Inc.) Elizabeth A. Benson (KBR, Inc.) Sudhakar L. Rajulu (NASA Johnson Space Center) Spacesuits are required to accommodate safe operations for astronauts across gender and a wide variety of body shapes and sizes. This goal has been of particular importance given the increasing diversity of NASA crewmembers for upcoming Missions. While testing with design prototypes is a critical step for spacesuit development, iterative mockup design, fabrication, and human subject tests can be extremely costly and time consuming. Moreover, testing with a limited subject pool has often raised questions for validity, as test subjects need to represent the entire astronaut population, not only of the past or current, but also the future. This study is aimed at demonstrating how digital human modeling (DHM) tools have been built and directly supported NASA spacesuit developments. With DHM, the computer aided design (CAD) model of a spacesuit was integrated with human body models. Two use scenarios are presented in this paper, namely fit and mobility. For fit assessments, the suit-to-body contact and compression patterns were estimated using 3D human body scan models virtually wearing a spacesuit model. A statistical fit classifier was made from the contact patterns and applied against a large database of body scans (N=2,500). With this technique, the NASA reference design spacesuit Exploration EVA Mobility Unit (xEMU)was verified to accommodate 90% of the astronaut-like population, with the critical dimensions covering 1stto 99thpercentiles of the target body measurements. A similar technique assessed XEMU mobility. The maximum reach envelopes were considered, within which the work objects and critical hardware interfaces should be located for safe and ergonomic operations. While the reach envelope geometry varies significantly with the suit wearer’s body size and strength, the existing test data did not include the subjects critically required to define suit mobility requirements, such as very small females or large males. Using the xEMU virtual model kinematically simulated and permuted for a hypothetical wearer, however, the existing data were statistically transformed and scaled. This method enabled for a parametric estimation of the reach envelopes from the 1stpercentile female or 99thpercentile male. The outcome was successfully incorporated for requirement developments. With the new DHM tools, human integration of the spacesuit was structurally simulated and predictively assessed, which would have been otherwise impossible. Also, the needs for iterative mockup and subject tests were significantly reduced, which resulted in time and cost saving. Additional work is in progress to integrate additional vehicles, tools, and hardware with DHM framework.

K Han Kim↗

Million Worker Study

Radiation health issues have been an important aspect of DOE's Worker Safety and Health programs. The goal is to ensure that workers are adequately protected from the various radiological hazards associated with DOE sites and operations. Since the early 1940’s DOE has supported the conduct of epidemiologic studies of practically every DOE (AEC) facility and collected these data, now managed by the Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), in remarkable detail. In the early 2000s, the Office of Health, Safety and Security authorized access to specific DOE worker datasets. Shortly thereafter, the DOE Office of Science provided funds for a pilot study that confirmed the feasibility of the Million Worker Study (MWS), and then additional resources were provided (with other agencies) to extend the follow-up of many populations, not just DOE workers, but also atomic veterans, industrial radiographers, nuclear power plant workers and medical radiation workers (the Million Persons Study (MPS)). This proposal was a continuation of support provided by DOE, specifically to extend the follow-up of the worker populations at the Mallinckrodt Chemical Works (MCW) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The work addresses DOE’s interest in clarifying the health risks of their workers as well as contributing knowledge on radiation risks that is relevant today with regard to compensation schemes. The findings are also important for the US public in light of the increased population exposure to medical imaging, environmental circumstances such as hydraulic fracturing, increased exposures during high altitude flights, and with regard to nuclear accidents such as Fukushima and possible terrorist events. Furthermore, it is important to consider reducing the uncertainty in current risk estimates by developing risk coefficients based on healthy American workers who are more representative of U.S. workers and the general public than 1945 Japanese survivors of the atomic bombs living in a war-torn country which experienced deprivation, malnourishment, and increased rates of infections and other diseases. But more importantly, it is important to learn whether radiation exposures received gradually over time (e.g., years) are more or less effective in causing health effects, cancer in particular, than if the radiation dose is received all at once in a fraction of a second as experienced by the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Finally, the ability to evaluate and combine large populations with intakes of radionuclides such as uranium, radium, plutonium, americium and polonium will provide new quantitative knowledge on human health effects that hitherto has not been possible. This cost-efficient study has built on the investments made and foundations laid by investigators and government agencies, including DOE, over the past 30-40 years, which have established early worker cohorts that can now provide answers to questions on the lifetime human health risks associated with low-level radiation exposures. Collaborating institutions included: International Epidemiology Institute, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Landauer, Inc., and Vanderbilt University. Follow-up of these two populations and the integration of them with the many other cohorts (now a total of 31) in the MPS continues under a separate DOE grant (DE-AU0000046).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Utility of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth for Estimating PM2.5 Exposure in Environmental Public Health Surveillance

As part of the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN) the National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is leading a project called Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange (HELIX-Atlanta). The goal of developing the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network is to improve the health of communities. Currently, few systems exist at the state or national level to concurrently track many of the exposures and health effects that might be associated with environmental hazards. An additional challenge is estimating exposure to environmental hazards such as particulate matter whose aerodynamic diameter is less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers (PM(2.5)) HELIX-Atlanta's goal is to examine the feasibility of building an integrated electronic health and environmental data network in five counties of Metropolitan Atlanta, GA (Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and Gwinnett counties). Under HELIX-Atlanta, pilot projects are being conducted to develop methods to characterize exposure; link health and environmental data; analyze the relationship between health and environmental factors; and communicate findings. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC) is collaborating with CDC to combine NASA earth science satellite observations related to air quality and environmental monitoring data to model surface estimates of PM(2.5) concentrations that can be linked with clinic visits for asthma. From 1999-2000 there were over 9,400 hospitalizations per year in Georgia with asthma as the primary diagnosis. The majority of these hospitalizations occurred in medical facilities in the five most populous Metro-Atlanta counties. Hospital charges resulting from asthma in Georgia are approximately $59 million dollars annually. There is evidence in the research literature that asthmatic persons are at increased risk of developing asthma exacerbations with exposure to environmental factors, including PM(2.5). Thus, HELIX-Atlanta is focusing on methods for characterizing population exposure to PM(2.5) for the Atlanta metropolitan area that could be used in on-going surveillance. While use of the Air Quality System, (AQS) PM(2.5) data alone could meet HELIX Atlanta, specifications, there are only five AQS sites in the Atlanta area, thus the spatial coverage is not ideal. Also, the AQS ground observations are made at time intervals ranging from one hour to six days leaving some temporal gaps. NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data have the potential for estimating daily ground level PM(2.5) at 10 km resolution over the metropolitan Atlanta area supplementing the AQS ground observations and filling their spatial and temporal gaps.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Biophysics Representation of the Two-Hit Model of Alzheimer's Disease for the Exploration of Late CNS Risks from Space Radiation

A concern for long-term space travel outside the Earth s magnetic field is the late effects to the central nervous system (CNS) from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) or solar particle events (SPE). Human epidemiology data is severely limited for making CNS risk estimates and it is not clear such effects occur following low LET exposures. We are developing systems biology models based on biological information on specific diseases, and experimental data for proton and heavy ion radiation. A two-hit model of Alzheimer s disease (AD) has been proposed by Zhu et al.(1), which is the framework of our model. Of importance is that over 50% of the US population over the age of 75-y have mild to severe forms of AD. Therefore we recommend that risk assessment for a potential AD risk from space radiation should focus on the projection of an earlier age of onset of AD and the prevention of this possible acceleration through countermeasures. In the two-hit model, oxidative stress and aberrant cell cycle-related abnormalities leading to amyloid-beta plaques and neurofibrillary tangles are necessary and invariant steps in AD. We have formulated a stochastic cell kinetics model of the two-hit AD model. In our model a population of neuronal cells is allowed to undergo renewal through neurogenesis and is susceptible to oxidative stress or cell cycle abnormalities with age-specific accumulation of damage. Baseline rates are fitted to AD population data for specific ages, gender, and for persons with an apolipoprotein 4 allele. We then explore how low LET or heavy ions may increase either of the two-hits or neurogenesis either through persistent oxidative stress, direct mutation, or through changes to the micro-environment, and suggest possible ways to develop accurate quantitative estimates of these processes for predicting AD risks following long-term space travel.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk in Japan: A pooled analysis of eight population‐based cohort studies

Abstract Although alcohol consumption is reported to increase the incidence of breast cancer in European studies, evidence for an association between alcohol and breast cancer in Asian populations is insufficient. We conducted a pooled analysis of eight large‐scale population‐based prospective cohort studies in Japan to evaluate the association between alcohol (both frequency and amount) and breast cancer risk with categorization by menopausal status at baseline and at diagnosis. Estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual cohorts and combined using random‐effects models. Among 158 164 subjects with 2 369 252 person‐years of follow‐up, 2208 breast cancer cases were newly diagnosed. Alcohol consumption had a significant association with a higher risk of breast cancer in both women who were premenopausal at baseline (regular drinker compared to nondrinker: HR 1.37, 1.04‐1.81, ≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.74, 1.25‐2.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .017) and those who were premenopausal at diagnosis (≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.89, 1.04‐3.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .032). In contrast, no significant association was seen in women who were postmenopausal at baseline or at diagnosis, despite a substantial number of subjects and long follow‐up period. Our results revealed that frequent and high alcohol consumption are both risk factors for Asian premenopausal breast cancer, similarly to previous studies in Western countries. The lack of a clear association in postmenopausal women in our study warrants larger investigation in Asia.

Iwase, Madoka↗

Discriminative versus generative approaches to simulation-based inference

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is inherently lossy, since histograms are binned and low-dimensional. Deep learning has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional parameter estimation through neural likelihood(-ratio) estimation. We compare two approaches for neural simulation-based inference (NSBI): one based on discriminative learning (classification) and one based on generative modeling. These two approaches are directly evaluated on the same datasets, with a similar level of hyperparameter optimization in both cases. In addition to a Gaussian dataset, we study NSBI using a Higgs boson dataset from the FAIR Universe Challenge. We find that both the direct likelihood and likelihood ratio estimation are able to effectively extract parameters with reasonable uncertainties. For the numerical examples and within the set of hyperparameters studied, we found that the likelihood ratio method is more accurate and/or precise. Both methods have a significant spread from the network training and would require ensembling or other mitigation strategies in practice.

high energy physics↗

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗

Atmospheric parameters and chemical abundances within 100 pc: a sample of G, K, and M main-sequence stars

ABSTRACT To date, we have access to enormous inventories of stellar spectra that allow the extraction of atmospheric parameters and chemical abundances essential in stellar studies. However, characterizing such a large amount of data is complex and requires a good understanding of the studied object to ensure reliable and homogeneous results. In this study, we present a methodology to measure homogenously the basic atmospheric parameters and detailed chemical abundances of over 1600 thin disc main-sequence stars in the 100 pc solar neighbourhood, using APOGEE-2 infrared spectra. We employed the code tonalli to determine the atmospheric parameters using a prior on $\log {g}$. The $\log {g}$ prior in tonalli implies an understanding of the treated population and helps to find physically coherent answers. Our atmospheric parameters agree within the typical uncertainties (100 K in $\mathrm{T_{eff}}$, 0.15 dex in $\log {g}$ and [M/H]) with previous estimations of ASPCAP and Gaia DR3. We use our temperatures to determine a new infrared colour–temperature sequence, in good agreement with previous works, that can be used for any main-sequence star. Additionally, we used the bacchus code to determine the abundances of Mg, Al, Si, Ca, and Fe in our sample. The five elements (Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Fe) studied have an abundance distribution centred around slightly subsolar values in agreement with previous results for the solar neighbourhood. The over 1600 main-sequence stars’ atmospheric parameters and chemical abundances presented here are useful in follow-up studies of the solar neighbourhood or as a training set for data-driven methods.

López-Valdivia, Ricardo (ORCID:0000000277950018)↗