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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

FAIR Surrogate Benchmarks Supporting AI and Simulation Research (Final Report)

Computational Science is being revolutionized by integrating AI and simulation and, in particular, by deep learning surrogate models that can replace all or part of traditional large‐scale HPC computations. Such surrogates can achieve remarkable performance improvements, as much as several orders of magnitude, and save both compute time and energy. The Surrogate Benchmark Initiative (SBI) project creates a community repository and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data ecosystem for HPC application surrogate benchmarks. The SBI team comes from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Indiana University (IU), Rutgers University, the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), and the University of Virginia (UVA). SBI repositories include data, code, and all relevant collateral artifacts that the science and engineering community need to use and reuse these data sets and surrogates. SBI repositories generate active research from both the participants in SBI and the broad community of AI and domain scientists. This project develops surrogates that use several different neural nets to learn and quickly infer the results of simulations and data systems and captures them as surrogate benchmarks with a rich set of metadata covering: Data; Model; Metrics specification; Machine specification; and Science, Speed, and Power Results. We research FAIR metadata for these benchmarks. We develop application surrogate examples as benchmarks across many fields (ANL, UTK, IU, UVA). We also study non-Surrogate benchmarks that have many common features and similar issues as regards FAIRness. We work with MLCommons (UVA, UTK), which is a major machine learning benchmarking activity where we get metadata ontologies, software, and benchmarks, Benchmarks have datasets, models, and metadata and they need a technical framework developed by UTK and Rutgers and deployed by UVA. We study features of Surrogates including performance, training set size, and uncertainty quantification (Rutgers, UVA and IU).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

On Distribution Grid Optimal Power Flow Development and Integration

Due to changes in electric distribution grid operation, new operation regimes have been recommended. Distribution grid optimal power flow (DOPF) has received tremendous attention in the research community, yet it has not been fully adopted across the utility industry. Our paper recognizes this problem and suggests a development and integration procedure for DOPF. We propose development of DOPF as a three step procedure of 1) processing the grid, 2) obtaining a tractable solution, and 3) implementing multiple solution algorithms and benchmarking them to improve application reliability. For the integration of DOPF, we demonstrate how a DOPF federate may be developed that can be integrated in a co-simulation environment to mimic the real-world conditions and hence improve its practicality to be deployed in the field. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods, tests on IEEE 123 bus system are performed where the usage of tractable formulation in DOPF algorithm development and its comparison to the benchmark solution are demonstrated.

Hanif, Sarmad↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Independent Uncertainty Analysis of the MIX-SOL-THERM-003 ICSBEP Benchmark

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) was started in 1992 by the United States Department of Energy and later in 1995 became an international project with contributions from 22 countries. The project is now organized by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). In its most recent iteration, the ICSBEP handbook contains over five thousand evaluations of critical, near-critical, and subcritical experiments conducted in facilities all around the world. These benchmarks serve as valuable information for criticality safety engineers who can use them to validate calculation techniques and establish minimum subcritical margins for operations with fissionable materials. The benchmarks in the handbook are categorized by their fissile material composition, material form (oxide, solution, or metal), and fission energy spectra. This is especially useful for those looking for benchmarks similar to a system they are working on to compare methods and identify trends. The ICSBEP Handbook Uncertainty Guide is document outlining recommended practices and methods for determining uncertainties in these benchmarks. Quantifying these uncertainties thoroughly is crucial as it allows a higher degree of confidence that data used from them is valid and relevant. The guide stresses the importance of a thorough and well documented uncertainty analysis when evaluating an experiment. All measured values of a system, whether they be dimensions or material compositions, have a certain amount of uncertainty associated with them and can be analyzed one by one to determine their effects on the system. Many evaluated benchmarks in the handbook present this in detail, however some do not, mostly earlier evaluations performed in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. Recently at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) of LANL has been validating MCNP6.2 ® input files of criticality benchmarks for use by Whisper, a criticality safety code developed at LANL. This effort is also part of the OECD NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) Subgroup 45, also known as Validation of Nuclear Data Libraries (VaNDaL). The goal of VaNDaL is to compile a set of validated simulation inputs for use in validating nuclear data and simulation codes. As part of these efforts, one of the benchmarks reviewed was the MIX SOL-THERM-003 ICSBEP benchmark. This paper provides an independent uncertainty analysis of this benchmark experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cost‐Effective Layered Oxide – Olivine Blend Cathodes for High‐Rate Pulse Power Lithium‐Ion Batteries

Abstract Sustainability and supply‐chain concerns require lithium‐ion batteries (LIBs) free from critical minerals, such as nickel and cobalt. While recent advances provide encouraging signs that cobalt can be removed, the question remains how much Ni can be removed from Co‐free layered oxide cathodes before sacrificing critical performance metrics. This study highlights the effect of reducing Ni by benchmarking several Co‐free cathodes with decreasing Ni content. Keeping the energy density the same by increasing the charge voltage, cathodes below 80% Ni content exhibit worsened capacity fade due to increasing oxygen release and electrolyte decomposition. Charge transfer and diffusion kinetics are also hindered with increasing Mn content and exacerbated by resistive surface phases formed at high voltages, rendering lower‐Ni, Co‐free cathodes less competitive than high‐Ni cathodes for high energy and power applications. It is demonstrated blending layered oxide with olivine as an effective alternative to deliver energy density and cycling stability comparable to lower‐Ni cathodes with moderate charging voltages. Blending with 30 wt% olivine LiMn 0.5 Fe 0.5 PO 4 (LMFP) virtually eliminates the diffusion limitation of layered oxides at low state‐of‐charge, with enhanced pulse power characteristics rivaling the high‐Ni counterparts. Cathode blending can further reduce the overall Ni content and cost without the performance limitations of lower‐Ni, Co‐free cathodes.

Lee, Steven↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microstructure and properties of a high temperature Al–Ce–Mn alloy produced by additive manufacturing

An Al–10Ce-8Mn (wt%) alloy was designed and fabricated by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing (AM). The rapid cooling rates of the AM process produced a refined microstructure with a large fraction of reinforcing intermetallic phases. The tensile properties of the alloy were characterized in the as-fabricated state and following thermal exposure. The properties of the as-fabricated microstructure showed exceptional high-temperature performance and strength retention at elevated temperatures up to 400 °C relative to benchmark wrought Al and AM Al alloy properties. Characterization of the microstructure and thermodynamic modeling of the ternary Al–Ce–Mn system rationalized the solidification and solid-state phase transformations. Finally, analysis of the relevant strengthening mechanisms for both the as-fabricated and thermally exposed conditions was performed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Initial Efforts Organizing WPNCS SG-8: Preservation of Expert Knowledge and Judgement Applied to Criticality Benchmarks

The Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety (WPNCS) under the guidance of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has over 20 years of experience addressing concerns related to static and transient configurations encountered within the nuclear fuel cycle: fuel fabrication, transportation, reprocessing, storage, and geological disposal. One of the cornerstone activities of the WPNCS is the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP), which was established to identify a comprehensive set of criticality benchmark data, evaluate the data, including quantification of overall uncertainties; compile the data into a standardized format, perform sample calculations utilizing modern nuclear data sets and codes utilized in nuclear criticality safety, and formally document the work into a single source of verified benchmark data. Annually, members of the ICSBEP Technical Review Group (TRG) contribute evaluated benchmark data that undergoes comprehensive technical review prior to publication in the ICSBEP Handbook. In the years since the ICSBEP was established, there has been much work to prepare benchmark data to support validation activities in nuclear criticality safety. The 2020 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook contains acceptable benchmark specifications for 5,053 critical, subcritical, or near-critical configurations in 582 benchmark evaluations. Modern benchmark development benefits from decades of experienced international participants, a well-established handbook format, supplementary guides to deal with uncertainty quantification, and a comprehensive review process based upon independent reviews from international experts. The ICSBEP Handbook also contains 838 configurations deemed unacceptable to support criticality safety efforts. They are recorded, with the reasoning for their rejection, to preserve the experimental data, prevent reevaluation of data that are incomplete or contain known errors, and/or to potentially allow future reevaluation of the experiment pending the identification of sufficient data to resolve identified inconsistencies and errors. Users of the ICSBEP Handbook today might notice that the rigor and quality of modern criticality safety benchmarks is much greater than those prepared within the initial decade of the project. Benchmarks with 1s uncertainties in k eff greater than 1% were traditionally rejected unless they were identified as unique experiment types that encompassed materials, fuels, or designs not available from other benchmark experiments. However, benchmarks developed using modern experimental techniques and practices typically have uncertainties on the order of a few tenths of a percent. There have been ongoing efforts to improve the overall quality of previously published benchmark evaluations. Seventy-eight evaluations, containing approximately 600 configurations, have been revised just within the past decade. An additional eleven benchmarks are under revision for updated release in the 2020 edition of the ICSBEP Handbook. If some of the historic benchmarks were resubmitted in their current form to the TRG today, they would be rejected due to lack of data, missing components in the uncertainty analysis, or incomplete benchmark model development. The use of historic criticality safety benchmarks that underestimate the total uncertainty, lack properly quantified biases, or provide inadequate benchmark specifications do not sufficiently support modern criticality safety and nuclear data efforts. Although the ICSBEP Handbook is recognized by regulating bodies to support criticality safety, users are required to justify their reasons to ignore historic benchmark data and include additional safety margins within their designs. Discussions were held at the WPNCS 23rd Annual Meeting in September 2019 regarding the aforementioned issues. The resultant decision was to establish Subgroup 8 (SG-8): Preservation of Expert Knowledge and Judgement Applied to Criticality Benchmarks. The current activities of SG-8 are discussed herein.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a gamma-ray detection response model for neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments

In a neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiment, a highly sensitive and fast detector is required to accurately determine the true fission γ-ray emission rate from an object composed of special nuclear material under interrogation, in addition to a proper detector response model for use in forward modeling. We present the development of a detector response model that is based in GEANT4 and uses post-processing techniques to include photomultiplier tube time and pulse height response effects. We also define a set of detector performance evaluation metrics that emphasized our experimental objectives. A suite of time and pulse height response measurements for several diverse detector assemblies are described. These assemblies were simulated with this response model and benchmarked against the laboratory measurements. This response model reproduces the pulse height curve shapes and performance hierarchy of the measured detectors well. Additionally, the simulated time response curves exhibit reasonable agreement with counterpart measurements. These measurements and simulation results together suggest that a large volume EJ-299-49 plastic scintillator that is mated to an ultraviolet transmitting plastic light guide and relies on total internal reflection for light transport to the photocathode will provide significantly faster timing, increase pulse height by a factor of 3, and require 25% less γ rays to meet experimental needs, compared to the candidate detector design developed prior to the availability of this response model. Application of this response model and associated performance metrics in the context of large-scale design sensitivity studies is also discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark results with a new evaluation of 155 Gd and 157 Gd

Evaluations of gadolinium isotopes 155 Gd and 157 Gd in the resolved resonance region were performed with the code SAMMY. The main objective for revising the resonance evaluations of these isotopes was to address issues related to critical benchmark results.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cobalt-Free Lithium and Manganese Rich Cathodes for Electric Vehicle Applications: Influence of Inherent Properties on Temperature-Dependent Performance

Lithium- and manganese-rich (LMR) oxides are attractive options as next-generation, earth-abundant cathodes. Despite inherent properties that result in less-than-ideal performance, advancements in this class of cathodes toward commercialization have been steady. Herein, we report a benchmark study on the influence these inherent properties exert on the discharge rate of Co-free, LMR//graphite (Gr) cells as a function of temperature. Because low-temperature performance is an essential consideration in the design of electric vehicle cells, understanding the limitations of current LMR systems is essential in understanding their current applicability as well as strategies for improvement. This work identifies two major limitations in the rate performance of LMR//Gr cells and suggests several areas of focus where practical strategies may provide improvements.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compressing Vision Transformers in Geospatial Transfer Learning with Manifold-Constrained Optimization

Deploying geospatial foundation models on resource-constrained edge devices demands compact architectures that maintain high downstream performance. However, their large parameter counts and the accuracy loss often induced by compression limit practical adoption.In this work, we leverage manifold-constrained optimization framework DLRT to compress large vision transformer–based geospatial foundation models during transfer learning. By enforcing structured low-dimensional parameterizations aligned with downstream objectives, this approach achieves strong compression while preserving task-specific accuracy. We show that the method outperforms of-the-shelf low-rank methods as LoRA. Experiments on diverse geospatial benchmarks confirm substantial parameter reduction with minimal accuracy loss, enabling high-performing, on-device geospatial models.

Snyder, Thomas [Yale University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Streamflow Reanalysis Across the Conterminous US Leveraging Multiple Gridded Precipitation Data Sets

Streamflow observations, essential for various water resource applications, are often unavailable at critical locations in need. Although different models have been proposed to enhance streamflow predictability at ungauged locations, the challenge extends beyond model fidelity. Differences in meteorologic forcing data sets, precipitation in particular, can significantly affect the accuracy of hydrologic predictions. This challenge intensifies across regions characterized by diverse hydro-climatological and geographical conditions, such as in the conterminous US (CONUS) where a single precipitation product struggles to consistently replicate observed hydrographs, particularly peak flow dynamics. To enhance streamflow predictions, we utilize a VIC-RAPID hydrologic modeling framework driven by multiple commonly used meteorological forcing data sets, such as Daymet, PRISM, ST4, AORC, and their hybrids and create multiple sets of 40-year (1980–2019) hourly, daily, and monthly streamflow reanalysis, Dayflow Version 2, for 2.7 million river reaches across the CONUS. Most forcings lead to skillful streamflow performance, except for ST4 in the mountainous west, where severe radar blockage adversely affects the accuracy. The evaluation using over 6,000 hourly stream gauges shows that hourly AORC and ST4 lead to improved annual peak flow performance over Daymet—driven streamflow (Dayflow V1), particularly in smaller basins, highlighting the value of high temporal resolution forcings in hydrologic predictions. Compared with other benchmark data sets like National Water Model V3.0, AORC-driven VIC-RAPID exhibits improved regional streamflow performance, with comparable peak flow representation. We envision that multi-forcing streamflow reanalysis data can inform regions in need of forcing data enhancement, diagnose hydrologic model performance, and benefit diverse water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Benchmarking of ENDF/B-VIII.1 Thermal Scattering Library for Hydrogen

In correctly characterizing the energy and momentum transfer at thermal and cold energies between neutrons and its interacting medium, thermal scattering libraries, which details energy states due to the intra- and inter-molecular bond effects for the medium materials, are applied in place of free-gas cross section libraries in a particle transport simulation code. They are essential to the neutron performance of a neutron facility like SNS, where thermalized neutrons from 20 K liquid hydrogen and ambient (~300 K) water are transported to the beamlines for neutron scattering experiments in studying materials. Recently, a new version of thermal scattering library for parahydrogen and orthohydrogen at 14-20 K was developed and to be released in ENDF/B-VIII.1. It is, therefore, important to benchmark its impacts on the prediction of moderator performance due to the updates in the thermal scattering library. In this study, the recent ENDF/B-VIII.1 thermal scattering library was compared to the current ENDF/B-VII.1 one in the neutron performance calculations for the decoupled and coupled hydrogen moderators at SNS under theorized and real working conditions. In addition, the predictions using both thermal scattering libraries were benchmarked to the measurements of moderator performance. The consistency between the libraries was observed mostly for parahydrogen and the difference in orthohydrogen at cold neutron energies was noted.

Lu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark Exercise for the Control Rod Swelling Evaluation

The VTR core has six reactivity control assemblies and three safety assemblies. The control assemblies or primary control rods are adjusted during the normal operation to balance the core reactivity and to control the reactor power. A typical control assembly radial layout is presented in Figure 1. The figure shows the swelled absorber (B 4 C) rod. Initially, helium gas fills the gap between the pin and the cladding before irradiation swelling takes place. For VTR, HT9 steel was selected as the cladding and duct material. The main neutron absorbing material used in the VTR is B 4 C. When residing in the core, the neutronics, thermophysical, and mechanical properties of the materials used in a control assembly will degrade due to accumulated neutron damage. Material degradation limits how long a control assembly can reside in the core. Many phenomena affect the control assembly lifetime, such as the loss of reactivity worth due to B 4 C depletion, the mechanical interaction of the absorber rod and the cladding due to B 4 C swelling, the helium gas buildup in the pin due to B-10 capture, etc. B 4 C swelling, which causes closure of the gap between the absorber rod and the cladding, is usually considered as the main limiting factor from past experience. An initial study was conducted at PNNL to evaluate the irradiation behavior of a VTR control assembly. The evaluation was performed using the CNRD2 code that was initially developed for the FFTF. The study also included an assessment of the VTR control assembly and focused on a 61-pin control assembly design, which is different from that used (37-pin design) in the core design study. The study conducted by PNNL was reviewed independently by ANL. A Python script referred to as the Control Assembly Evaluation Script (CAES) was developed for the independent review and additional assessment of 37-pin control assembly design. The script has focused on the assessment of the absorber rod swelling for its importance in determining the control assembly lifetime. CAES uses geometry, neutronics, materials data as input to predict the swelling of the absorber rod during its residence in the reactor core. The results from CAES showed some non-negligible differences against the PNNL results. Some of the differences can be attributed to the different interpretation of the control rod assembly dimensions. To resolve this issue, a benchmark exercise was proposed. The benchmark specification was developed by PNNL. The benchmark exercise was performed independently at PNNL and ANL using different codes/scripts (CRND2 and CAES). This memo documents the results calculated using the different codes. However, this report is limited to presenting the results obtained. Further investigation of the cause of the observed difference will be performed as part of future activities, pending continuation of the VTR program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

High Fidelity Simulations of Air-Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System

Nuclear energy is increasingly acknowledged as pivotal in the global shift towards cleaner energy solutions. Advanced nuclear technologies, including High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs), stand out as appealing options among Generation IV reactors due to their high temperature heat output and potential for cogeneration. HTGR designs incorporate passive safety systems, such as the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS), which utilize natural principles to manage heat dissipation from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accidents or routine shutdowns. Regulatory bodies require thorough validation of safety systems like the RCCS to ensure they meet specified standards. Consequently, there is a pressing need within the industry for advanced simulation tools capable of assessing these systems’ performance accurately. There is a knowladge gap in the literature concerning high-fidelity data for the RCCS, which motivates the focus of this study. This research focuses on a specific RCCS designed for the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor developed by General Atomics (GA- MHTGR). Experimental studies on a scaled version of the air-cooled RCCS of GA-MHTGR were conducted by the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This work contributes to a broader initiative aimed at establishing a numerical benchmark based on the UW-Madison experiments. As first step we performed high fidelity simulations of the experimental facility setup, to analyze flow physics in such systems and validate NekRS and the MOOSE heat transfer and radiation modules.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of graph structures for QAOA on MaxCut

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) is a promising method of solving combinatorial optimization problems using quantum computing. QAOA on the MaxCut problem has been studied extensively on graphs with specific structure; however, little is known about the general performance of the algorithm on arbitrary graphs. Here, we investigate how different graph characteristics correlate with QAOA performance at depths at most three on the MaxCut problem for all connected non-isomorphic graphs with at most eight vertices. Some good predictors of QAOA success relate to graph symmetries, odd cycles, and density. For example, on eight vertex graphs, the average probability for selecting an optimal solution for graphs that contain no odd cycles after three iterations of QAOA is 60.6% compared to 48.2% for those that do. The data generated from these studies are shared in a publicly accessible database to serve as a benchmark for QAOA calculations and experiments. Knowing the relationship between structure and performance can be used to identify classes of combinatorial problems that are likely to exhibit a quantum advantage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

PyCDFT: A Python package for constrained density functional theory

In this paper, we present PyCDFT, a Python package to compute diabatic states using constrained density functional theory (CDFT). PyCDFT provides an object-oriented, customizable implementation of CDFT, and allows for both single-point self-consistent-field calculations and geometry optimizations. PyCDFT is designed to interface with existing density functional theory (DFT) codes to perform CDFT calculations where constraint potentials are added to the Kohn–Sham Hamiltonian. Here, we demonstrate the use of PyCDFT by performing calculations with a massively parallel first-principles molecular dynamics code, Qbox, and we benchmark its accuracy by computing the electronic coupling between diabatic states for a set of organic molecules. We show that PyCDFT yields results in agreement with existing implementations and is a robust and flexible package for performing CDFT calculations. The program is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3821097.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gaussian Process Optimization of Sensitivity-Based Similarity Metrics between New Nuclear Applications and New/Existing Benchmarks [Slides]

This presentation discusses Nuclear Criticality Safety (NCS) and how designing safe, new nuclear criticality experiments requires expert judgement, which could take years of experience. Sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analysis can be utilized by less experienced individuals to conservatively estimate uncertainties in important parameters, such as k eff , in newly proposed nuclear experiments. The presentation poses the question of how this analysis can be performed and states that the answer lies in matching new nuclear experiments with existing benchmark experiments using similarity metrics. By increasing the criticality safety of the application in this work, higher mass limits could be used in PF-4 operations. Additionally, the presentation discusses MCNP6.2®, Whisper-1.1, the software that can be used in this analysis. Also discussed is the fact that International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) benchmarks rarely match new nuclear applications and that there are significant differences in given set of materials and/or geometry. If there are no benchmarks that match the application, the presentation discusses the possibility of creating new benchmarks. In conclusion, this work presents a Gaussian process (GP) optimization scheme that was used to generate new benchmarks with the highest sensitivity-based similarity metrics to user-defined nuclear applications. The Gaussian process optimization successfully designed 3 new experimental benchmarks that were highly correlated to the application of interest and had k eff values near critical. Optimization over c k,i-r has shown that investigating specific isotope reactions for different applications is crucial to designing benchmark experiments. Partial contribution from Pu dominates c k similarity metric. Future work includes testing new stand-alone similarity metrics or new combinations of similarity metrics as the design criterion of this optimization – design criterion is application dependent.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The 1996 Mid-Atlantic Winter Flood: Exploring Climate Risk through a Storyline Approach

Abstract This article explores the application of thermodynamic perturbations to a historical midlatitude, wintertime, rain-on-snow flood event to evaluate how similar events may evolve under different climate forcings. In particular, we generate a hindcast of the 1996 Mid-Atlantic flood using an ensemble of 14-km variable-resolution simulations completed with the U.S. Department of Energy’s global Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We show that the event is skillfully reproduced over the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) by E3SM when benchmarked against in situ observational data and high-resolution reanalyses. In addition, we perform five counterfactual experiments to simulate the flood under preindustrial conditions and four different levels of warming as projected by the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. We find a nonlinear response in simulated surface runoff and streamflow as a function of atmospheric warming. This is attributed to changing contributions of liquid water input from a shallower initial snowpack (decreased snowmelt), increased surface temperatures and rainfall rates, and increased soil water storage. Flooding associated with this event peaks from around +1 to +2 K of global average surface warming and decreases with additional warming beyond this. There are noticeable timing shifts in peak runoff and streamflow associated with changes in the flashiness of the event. This work highlights the utility of using storyline approaches for communicating climate risk and demonstrates the potential nonlinearities associated with hydrologic extremes in areas that experience ephemeral snowpack, such as the SRB.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗