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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Opacities of singly and doubly ionized neodymium and uranium for kilonova emission modeling

ABSTRACT Even though the electromagnetic counterpart AT2017gfo to the binary neutron star merger GW170817 is powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei, only few tentative identifications of light r-process elements have been made so far. One of the major limitations for the identification of heavy nuclei is incomplete or missing atomic data. While substantial progress has been made on lanthanide atomic data over the last few years, for actinides there has been less emphasis, with the first complete set of opacity data only recently published. We perform atomic structure calculations of neodymium (Z = 60) as well as the corresponding actinide uranium (Z = 92). Using two different codes [flexible atomic code (fac) and hartree–fock-relativistic (hfr)] for the calculation of the atomic data, we investigate the accuracy of the calculated data (energy levels and electric dipole transitions) and their effect on kilonova opacities. For the fac calculations, we optimize the local central potential and the number of included configurations and use a dedicated calibration technique to improve the agreement between theoretical and available experimental atomic energy levels (AELs). For ions with vast amounts of experimental data available, the presented opacities agree quite well with previous estimations. On the other hand, the optimization and calibration method cannot be used for ions with only few available AELs. For these cases, where no experimental nor benchmarked calculations are available, a large spread in the opacities estimated from the atomic data obtained with the various atomic structure codes is observed. We find that the opacity of uranium is almost double the neodymium opacity.

Flörs, A. (ORCID:0000000320242819)↗
NASA NTRS1980

Research in the application of spectral data to crop identification and assessment, volume 2

The development of spectrometry crop development stage models is discussed with emphasis on models for corn and soybeans. One photothermal and four thermal meteorological models are evaluated. Spectral data were investigated as a source of information for crop yield models. Intercepted solar radiation and soil productivity are identified as factors related to yield which can be estimated from spectral data. Several techniques for machine classification of remotely sensed data for crop inventory were evaluated. Early season estimation, training procedures, the relationship of scene characteristics to classification performance, and full frame classification methods were studied. The optimal level for combining area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans is assessed utilizing current technology: digital analysis of LANDSAT MSS data on sample segments to provide area estimates and regression models to provide yield estimates.

Daughtry, C. S. T.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Selecting a spatial resolution for estimation of per-field green leaf area index

For any application of multispectral scanner (MSS) data, a user is faced with a number of choices concerning the characteristics of the data; one of these is their spatial resolution. A pilot study was undertaken to determine the spatial resolution that would be optimal for the per-field estimation of green leaf area index (GLAI) in grassland. By reference to empirically-derived data from three areas of grassland, the suitable spatial resolution was hypothesized to lie in the lower portion of a 2-18 m range. To estimate per-field GLAI, airborne MSS data were collected at spatial resolutions of 2 m, 5 m and 10 m. The highest accuracies of per-field GLAI estimation were achieved using MSS data with spatial resolutions of 2 m and 5 m.

Curran, Paul J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cost optimization of high recovery single stage gap membrane distillation

Estimating the cost of membrane distillation (MD) processes at scale is confounded by the vast array of possible process configurations, module configurations, and operating conditions and the extreme sensitivity of MD costs to these parameters. This work develops a comprehensive MD cost optimization framework for minimizing the levelized cost of water (LCOW) as a function of feed salinity and temperature. Our single stage gap MD model fully captures solution properties, heat transfer, and mass transfer relationships in the modules to determine the cost optimal design as a function of multiple decision variables, including process configuration (feed location and connectivity between the hot and cold-side), the gap type (air, permeate, conductive), equipment sizes (membrane, heater, chiller, and heat exchanger units), and operating conditions (flow rates, hot and cold side temperatures, and heating and cooling duties). We estimate that the minimum LCOW of conductive gap MD ranges between $\$$10 and $\$$16 per m 3 for feed salinities of 25 g/L to 200 g/L and water recoveries of 30%–75%. Further, we update several heuristic assumptions for cost optimal system operation, including: increased thermal conductivity of the gap decreases system costs; cost optimal MD operates at the highest allowable temperature; and the LCOW is a strong function of brine salinity. Finally, we find that improving membrane properties and lowering heating and cooling costs will provide only modest reductions in costs (<25%).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1998

Estimation of Aircraft Nonlinear Unsteady Parameters From Wind Tunnel Data

Aerodynamic equations were formulated for an aircraft in one-degree-of-freedom large amplitude motion about each of its body axes. The model formulation based on indicial functions separated the resulting aerodynamic forces and moments into static terms, purely rotary terms and unsteady terms. Model identification from experimental data combined stepwise regression and maximum likelihood estimation in a two-stage optimization algorithm that can identify the unsteady term and rotary term if necessary. The identification scheme was applied to oscillatory data in two examples. The model identified from experimental data fit the data well, however, some parameters were estimated with limited accuracy. The resulting model was a good predictor for oscillatory and ramp input data.

Klein, Vladislav↗
DOE OSTI2023

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Revealing Relationships among Relevant Climate Variables with Information Theory

The primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced forcing. We are currently developing a suite of computational tools that will allow researchers to calculate, from data, a variety of information-theoretic quantities such as mutual information, which can be used to identify relationships among climate variables, and transfer entropy, which indicates the possibility of causal interactions. Our tools estimate these quantities along with their associated error bars, the latter of which is critical for describing the degree of uncertainty in the estimates. This work is based upon optimal binning techniques that we have developed for piecewise-constant, histogram-style models of the underlying density functions. Two useful side benefits have already been discovered. The first allows a researcher to determine whether there exist sufficient data to estimate the underlying probability density. The second permits one to determine an acceptable degree of round-off when compressing data for efficient transfer and storage. We also demonstrate how mutual information and transfer entropy can be applied so as to allow researchers not only to identify relations among climate variables, but also to characterize and quantify their possible causal interactions.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Optimal design of an unsupervised adaptive classifier with unknown priors

An adaptive detection scheme for M hypotheses was analyzed. It was assumed that the probability density function under each hypothesis was known, and that the prior probabilities of the M hypotheses were unknown and sequentially estimated. Each observation vector was classified using the current estimate of the prior probabilities. Using a set of nonlinear transformations, and applying stochastic approximation theory, an optimally converging adaptive detection and estimation scheme was designed. The optimality of the scheme lies in the fact that convergence to the true prior probabilities is ensured, and that the asymptotic error variance is minimum, for the class of nonlinear transformations considered. An expression for the asymptotic mean square error variance of the scheme was also obtained.

Kazakos, D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing Prospects for Quantum Advantage in Topological Data Analysis

Lloyd [Nat. Commun. , 10138 (2016)] were first to demonstrate the promise of quantum algorithms for computing Betti numbers, a way to characterize topological features of data sets. Here, we propose, analyze, and optimize an improved quantum algorithm for topological data analysis (TDA) with reduced scaling, including a method for preparing Dicke states based on inequality testing, a more efficient amplitude estimation algorithm using Kaiser windows, and an optimal implementation of eigenvalue projectors based on Chebyshev polynomials. We compile our approach to a fault-tolerant gate set and estimate constant factors in the Toffoli complexity. Our analysis reveals that superquadratic quantum speedups are only possible for this problem when targeting a multiplicative error approximation and the Betti number grows asymptotically. Further, we propose a dequantization of the quantum TDA algorithm that shows that having exponentially large dimension and Betti number are necessary, but insufficient conditions, for superpolynomial advantage. We then introduce and analyze specific problem examples which have parameters in the regime where superpolynomial advantages may be achieved, and argue that quantum circuits with tens of billions of Toffoli gates can solve seemingly classically intractable instances. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1982

Software for the grouped optimal aggregation technique

The grouped optimal aggregation technique produces minimum variance, unbiased estimates of acreage and production for countries, zones (states), or any designated collection of acreage strata. It uses yield predictions, historical acreage information, and direct acreage estimate from satellite data. The acreage strata are grouped in such a way that the ratio model over historical acreage provides a smaller variance than if the model were applied to each individual stratum. An optimal weighting matrix based on historical acreages, provides the link between incomplete direct acreage estimates and the total, current acreage estimate.

Brown, P. M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗
NASA NTRS1995

Optimal Signal Processing of Frequency-Stepped CW Radar Data

An optimal signal processing algorithm is derived for estimating the time delay and amplitude of each scatterer reflection using a frequency-stepped CW system. The channel is assumed to be composed of abrupt changes in the reflection coefficient profile. The optimization technique is intended to maximize the target range resolution achievable from any set of frequency-stepped CW radar measurements made in such an environment. The algorithm is composed of an iterative two-step procedure. First, the amplitudes of the echoes are optimized by solving an overdetermined least squares set of equations. Then, a nonlinear objective function is scanned in an organized fashion to find its global minimum. The result is a set of echo strengths and time delay estimates. Although this paper addresses the specific problem of resolving the time delay between the two echoes, the derivation is general in the number of echoes. Performance of the optimization approach is illustrated using measured data obtained from an HP-851O network analyzer. It is demonstrated that the optimization approach offers a significant resolution enhancement over the standard processing approach that employs an IFFT. Degradation in the performance of the algorithm due to suboptimal model order selection and the effects of additive white Gaussion noise are addressed.

Ybarra, Gary A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

On the dynamic estimation of relative weights for observation and forecast in numerical weather prediction

The problem of merging direct and remotely sensed (indirect) data with forecast data to get an estimate of the present state of the atmosphere for the purpose of numerical weather prediction is examined. To carry out this merging optimally, it is necessary to provide an estimate of the relative weights to be given to the observations and forecast. It is possible to do this dynamically from the information to be merged, if the correlation structure of the errors from the various sources is sufficiently different. Some new statistical approaches to doing this are described, and conditions quantified in which such estimates are likely to be good.

Wahba, Grace↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Investigating Risks Due to Artemis EVA Tempo Via Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Spaceflight operations pose unique challenges to crew health, safety, and resource management. As space agencies and private companies continue to push the boundaries of human exploration, it is essential to understand the risks associated with Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) and develop strategies to mitigate them. The tempo at which EVAs are conducted – the total number and frequency of these activities – can have a profound impact on medical risks, resource consumption, and overall mission success. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) provides a powerful framework for evaluating complex systems and identifying potential hazards. Our work employs the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) [1] to simulate mission events, occurrence and treatment of medical conditions, and track the utilization of resources. Coupled with the Evidence Library [2], a medical evidence base for exploration-class missions developed by the Exploration Medical Capability within NASA’s Human Research Program, we can estimate these risks with increased fidelity and optimize medical kit contents to meet specific mission requirements. This presentation provides a detailed examination of how EVA tempo influences medical risk estimates for a lunar surface design reference mission. A comprehensive analysis is conducted to assess the additional mass and volume burden imposed on medical kits required to maintain adequate levels of risk mitigation. Furthermore, we estimate the distribution of the number of successful EVAs completed based on the level of task impairment imposed by medical events and flight rules related to specific medical events, such as decompression sickness.

Modeling↗
NASA NTRS1995

Optimal Signal Processing of Frequency-Stepped CW Radar Data

An optimal signal processing algorithm is derived for estimating the time delay and amplitude of each scatterer reflection using a frequency-stepped CW system. The channel is assumed to be composed of abrupt changes in the reflection coefficient profile. The optimization technique is intended to maximize the target range resolution achievable from any set of frequency-stepped CW radar measurements made in such an environment. The algorithm is composed of an iterative two-step procedure. First, the amplitudes of the echoes are optimized by solving an overdetermined least squares set of equations. Then, a nonlinear objective function is scanned in an organized fashion to find its global minimum. The result is a set of echo strengths and time delay estimates. Although this paper addresses the specific problem of resolving the time delay between the first two echoes, the derivation is general in the number of echoes. Performance of the optimization approach is illustrated using measured data obtained from an HP-X510 network analyzer. It is demonstrated that the optimization approach offers a significant resolution enhancement over the standard processing approach that employs an IFFT. Degradation in the performance of the algorithm due to suboptimal model order selection and the effects of additive white Gaussion noise are addressed.

Ybarra, Gary A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Analysis of Fluid Gauge Sensor for Zero or Microgravity Conditions using Finite Element Method

In this paper the Finite Element Method (FEM) is presented for mass/volume gauging of a fluid in a tank subjected to zero or microgravity conditions. In this approach first mutual capacitances between electrodes embedded inside the tank are measured. Assuming the medium properties the mutual capacitances are also estimated using FEM approach. Using proper non-linear optimization the assumed properties are updated by minimizing the mean square error between estimated and measured capacitances values. Numerical results are presented to validate the present approach.

Deshpande, Manohar D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Optimization of Well Completions and Controls for CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery and Storage

CO 2 storage through CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is considered as one of the technologies to help promote larger scale deployment of CO 2 storage because of associated economic benefits through oil recovery, 45Q tax credits and the utilization of existing infrastructure. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how optimal reservoir management and operation strategies (including well completions and controls) can be used to optimize both CO 2 storage and oil recovery. The optimization problem was focused on jointly estimating the well completions (i.e., fraction of injection/production well perforations in each reservoir layer) and CO 2 injection/oil production controls that maximize the net present value (NPV) in a CO 2 EOR and storage operation. We utilized the newly developed StoSAG algorithm, one of the most efficient optimization algorithms in the reservoir management community, to solve the optimization problem. The performance of joint optimization approach was compared with the performance of well control only optimization approach. In addition, the performance of co-optimization of CO 2 storage and oil recovery approach was compared with the performances of maximization of only CO 2 storage and maximization of only oil recovery approaches. The optimization results showed that a joint optimization of well completions and well controls can achieve an 8.84% higher final NPV than the one obtained from the optimization of only well controls. It was observed that the NPV incremental for joint optimization is mainly due to the fact that the optimal well completions and controls approach results in efficient CO 2 storage and oil production from different reservoir layers depending on the differences in individual layer properties. Comparison of co-optimization (i.e., maximization of NPV) and maximization of only CO 2 storage or only oil recovery showed that the co-optimization and maximization of only oil recovery result in significantly higher final NPV than that obtained through maximization of only CO 2 storage approach while maximization of only CO 2 storage can achieve significantly higher CO 2 storage in the reservoir compared to the other two scenarios. The similar results for co-optimization and maximization of oil production are obtained because of the difference in oil revenue compared to CO 2 storage tax credit. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in oil/gas industry and CO 2 storage community to perform joint optimization of well completions and well controls in the fields. We expect that the proposed optimization framework will be a useful and efficient tool for field engineers to optimally manage CO 2 EOR projects to maximize revenue through oil recovery as well as CO 2 storage by taking advantage of the new 45Q tax law.

Artificial intelligence↗