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NASA NTRS2009

Exploring Alternative Parameterizations for Snowfall with Validation from Satellite and Terrestrial Radars

Increases in computational resources have allowed operational forecast centers to pursue experimental, high resolution simulations that resolve the microphysical characteristics of clouds and precipitation. These experiments are motivated by a desire to improve the representation of weather and climate, but will also benefit current and future satellite campaigns, which often use forecast model output to guide the retrieval process. The combination of reliable cloud microphysics and radar reflectivity may constrain radiative transfer models used in satellite simulators during future missions, including EarthCARE and the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement. Aircraft, surface and radar data from the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project are used to check the validity of size distribution and density characteristics for snowfall simulated by the NASA Goddard six-class, single moment bulk water microphysics scheme, currently available within the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model. Widespread snowfall developed across the region on January 22, 2007, forced by the passing of a mid latitude cyclone, and was observed by the dual-polarimetric, C-band radar King City, Ontario, as well as the NASA 94 GHz CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar. Combined, these data sets provide key metrics for validating model output: estimates of size distribution parameters fit to the inverse-exponential equations prescribed within the model, bulk density and crystal habit characteristics sampled by the aircraft, and representation of size characteristics as inferred by the radar reflectivity at C- and W-band. Specified constants for distribution intercept and density differ significantly from observations throughout much of the cloud depth. Alternate parameterizations are explored, using column-integrated values of vapor excess to avoid problems encountered with temperature-based parameterizations in an environment where inversions and isothermal layers are present. Simulation of CloudSat reflectivity is performed by adopting the discrete-dipole parameterizations and databases provided in literature, and demonstrate an improved capability in simulating radar reflectivity at W-band versus Mie scattering assumptions.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Recent advances in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) have provided the capability for exact inference: computing a closed-form probability distribution for a given probabilistic program. In particular, the new language Roulette uses a language oriented programming (LOP) approach, wherein analysts build new programming languages on top of a set of primitives provided by Roulette, which then translates these structures into a weighted model counting problem which can be solved by automated reasoning tools. However, because Roulette provides few convenience features, developing these new languages is challenging even for expert users. We developed a standard library of common probability functions for Roulette with the goal of improved usability. This included approximation of continuous probability density functions using discrete probability mass functions. We demonstrated this approach by modeling a cosmic ray striking a RAM controller. We found that Roulette provides a powerful interface for highly expressive probabilistic programs to be generated. In collaboration with the NNSA Advanced Simulation and Computing program, which resulted in development of a tool called Circulette, we were able to model complex circuits expressed in Verilog using probabilistic programs with an expressivity not previously possible. Our research question that motivated the development of a Roulette standard library was to determine whether non-experts could use a PPL to model relevant problems regarding radiation effects on microelectronics. This standard library improved the expressivity of Roulette by implementing common probability density functions, mathematical operators on distributions, and support for empirical distributions. While Roulette is a powerful modeling language, the untyped, LOP approach makes error messages difficult to understand and requires expert aid. We recommend further research on Roulette, especially with its error messages, to enable improved usability. At the same time, this project demonstrated that for users familiar with Roulette and the LOP approach, Roulette provides powerful new capabilities that can be integrated with other Sandia modeling capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

A framework for inferring and analyzing pharmacotherapy treatment patterns

Background: To discover pharmacotherapy prescription patterns and their statistical associations with outcomes through a clinical pathway inference framework applied to real-world data. Methods: We apply machine learning steps in our framework using a 2006 to 2020 cohort of veterans with major depressive disorder (MDD). Outpatient antidepressant pharmacy fills, dispensed inpatient antidepressant medications, emergency department visits, self-harm, and all-cause mortality data were extracted from the Department of Veterans Affairs Corporate Data Warehouse. Results: Our MDD cohort consisted of 252,179 individuals. During the study period there were 98,417 emergency department visits, 1,016 cases of self-harm, and 1,507 deaths from all causes. The top ten prescription patterns accounted for 69.3% of the data for individuals starting antidepressants at the fluoxetine equivalent of 20-39 mg. Additionally, we found associations between outcomes and dosage change. Conclusions: For 252,179 Veterans who served in Iraq and Afghanistan with subsequent MDD noted in their electronic medical records, we documented and described the major pharmacotherapy prescription patterns implemented by Veterans Health Administration providers. Ten patterns accounted for almost 70% of the data. Associations between antidepressant usage and outcomes in observational data may be confounded. The low numbers of adverse events, especially those associated with all-cause mortality, make our calculations imprecise. Furthermore, our outcomes are also indications for both disease and treatment. Despite these limitations, we demonstrate the usefulness of our framework in providing operational insight into clinical practice, and our results underscore the need for increased monitoring during critical points of treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Automated Instrumentation, Monitoring and Visualization of PVM Programs Using AIMS

We present views and analysis of the execution of several PVM codes for Computational Fluid Dynamics on a network of Sparcstations, including (a) NAS Parallel benchmarks CG and MG (White, Alund and Sunderam 1993); (b) a multi-partitioning algorithm for NAS Parallel Benchmark SP (Wijngaart 1993); and (c) an overset grid flowsolver (Smith 1993). These views and analysis were obtained using our Automated Instrumentation and Monitoring System (AIMS) version 3.0, a toolkit for debugging the performance of PVM programs. We will describe the architecture, operation and application of AIMS. The AIMS toolkit contains (a) Xinstrument, which can automatically instrument various computational and communication constructs in message-passing parallel programs; (b) Monitor, a library of run-time trace-collection routines; (c) VK (Visual Kernel), an execution-animation tool with source-code clickback; and (d) Tally, a tool for statistical analysis of execution profiles. Currently, Xinstrument can handle C and Fortran77 programs using PVM 3.2.x; Monitor has been implemented and tested on Sun 4 systems running SunOS 4.1.2; and VK uses X11R5 and Motif 1.2. Data and views obtained using AIMS clearly illustrate several characteristic features of executing parallel programs on networked workstations: (a) the impact of long message latencies; (b) the impact of multiprogramming overheads and associated load imbalance; (c) cache and virtual-memory effects; and (4significant skews between workstation clocks. Interestingly, AIMS can compensate for constant skew (zero drift) by calibrating the skew between a parent and its spawned children. In addition, AIMS' skew-compensation algorithm can adjust timestamps in a way that eliminates physically impossible communications (e.g., messages going backwards in time). Our current efforts are directed toward creating new views to explain the observed performance of PVM programs. Some of the features planned for the near future include: (a) ConfigView, showing the physical topology of the virtual machine, inferred using specially formatted IP (Internet Protocol) packets; and (b) LoadView, synchronous animation of PVM-program execution and resource-utilization patterns.

Mehra, Pankaj↗

NASA NTRS1994

Automated Instrumentation, Monitoring and Visualization of PVM Programs Using AIMS

We present views and analysis of the execution of several PVM (Parallel Virtual Machine) codes for Computational Fluid Dynamics on a networks of Sparcstations, including: (1) NAS Parallel Benchmarks CG and MG; (2) a multi-partitioning algorithm for NAS Parallel Benchmark SP; and (3) an overset grid flowsolver. These views and analysis were obtained using our Automated Instrumentation and Monitoring System (AIMS) version 3.0, a toolkit for debugging the performance of PVM programs. We will describe the architecture, operation and application of AIMS. The AIMS toolkit contains: (1) Xinstrument, which can automatically instrument various computational and communication constructs in message-passing parallel programs; (2) Monitor, a library of runtime trace-collection routines; (3) VK (Visual Kernel), an execution-animation tool with source-code clickback; and (4) Tally, a tool for statistical analysis of execution profiles. Currently, Xinstrument can handle C and Fortran 77 programs using PVM 3.2.x; Monitor has been implemented and tested on Sun 4 systems running SunOS 4.1.2; and VK uses XIIR5 and Motif 1.2. Data and views obtained using AIMS clearly illustrate several characteristic features of executing parallel programs on networked workstations: (1) the impact of long message latencies; (2) the impact of multiprogramming overheads and associated load imbalance; (3) cache and virtual-memory effects; and (4) significant skews between workstation clocks. Interestingly, AIMS can compensate for constant skew (zero drift) by calibrating the skew between a parent and its spawned children. In addition, AIMS' skew-compensation algorithm can adjust timestamps in a way that eliminates physically impossible communications (e.g., messages going backwards in time). Our current efforts are directed toward creating new views to explain the observed performance of PVM programs. Some of the features planned for the near future include: (1) ConfigView, showing the physical topology of the virtual machine, inferred using specially formatted IP (Internet Protocol) packets: and (2) LoadView, synchronous animation of PVM-program execution and resource-utilization patterns.

Mehra, Pankaj↗

DOE OSTI2023

A metagenome-level analysis of a microbial community fermenting ultra-filtered milk permeate

Fermentative microbial communities have the potential to serve as biocatalysts for the conversion of low-value dairy coproducts into renewable chemicals, contributing to a more sustainable global economy. To develop predictive tools for the design and operation of industrially relevant strategies that utilize fermentative microbial communities, there is a need to determine the genomic features of community members that are characteristic to the accumulation of different products. To address this knowledge gap, we performed a 282-day bioreactor experiment with a microbial community that was fed ultra-filtered milk permeate, a low-value coproduct from the dairy industry. The bioreactor was inoculated with a microbial community from an acid-phase digester. A metagenomic analysis was used to assess microbial community dynamics, construct metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), and evaluate the potential for lactose utilization and fermentation product synthesis of community members represented by the assembled MAGs. This analysis led us to propose that, in this reactor, members of the Actinobacteriota phylum are important in the degradation of lactose, via the Leloir pathway and the bifid shunt, and the production of acetic, lactic, and succinic acids. In addition, members of the Firmicutes phylum contribute to the chain-elongation-mediated production of butyric, hexanoic, and octanoic acids, with different microbes using either lactose, ethanol, or lactic acid as the growth substrate. We conclude that genes encoding carbohydrate utilization pathways, and genes encoding lactic acid transport into the cell, electron confurcating lactate dehydrogenase, and its associated electron transfer flavoproteins, are genomic features whose presence in Firmicutes needs to be established to infer the growth substrate used for chain elongation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Language Processing Analysis of Notices to Airmen for Air Traffic Management Optimization

With new emerging technologies in the field of NLP, we explore their applications to digitize and analyze heritage Air Traffic Management (ATM) documents for planning and optimizing airspace operations. Specifically, this research focuses on harvesting semi-structured or un-structured information contained in Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs). Using NLP and other advanced data analytics, we will construct a data-driven framework which facilitates finding language patterns and the use of pretrained language models for classification and extraction of useful airspace constraints and restrictions. These may lead to tools that assist airspace users in understanding the constraints more efficiently, contributing to better route planning and safer execution. This paper explores three workflows entailing different NLP tasks. First, unsupervised techniques like word embedding and topic modeling are used for pattern finding and document classification. Second, a dataset is created by extracting information from the semi-structured NOTAM format as metadata for categorizing, visualizing, and extracting key entities driving NOTAM content. Third, modern pre-built deep learning based transformer models such as BERT, RoBERTa, and XLNet are evaluated on the question answering task, an even more robust approach to information extraction, as well as their respective fine-tuning tasks. In this work we include various performance metrics for the trained models to evaluate both accuracy and precision and we show that the models can be generalized for their respective tasks. The research work developed shows promise in uncovering trends in digital NOTAMs in the NAS and also offers a new framework for digitizing and inferring insights from free-form legacy NOTAMs, that are yet to be digitized.

Natural Language Processing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Language Processing (NLP) Analysis of NOTAMs for Air Traffic Management Optimization

Natural Language Processing↗

NASA NTRS2006

Detection of Water Hazards for Autonomous Robotic Vehicles

Four methods of detection of bodies of water are under development as means to enable autonomous robotic ground vehicles to avoid water hazards when traversing off-road terrain. The methods involve processing of digitized outputs of optoelectronic sensors aboard the vehicles. It is planned to implement these methods in hardware and software that would operate in conjunction with the hardware and software for navigation and for avoidance of solid terrain obstacles and hazards. The first method, intended for use during the day, is based on the observation that, under most off-road conditions, reflections of sky from water are easily discriminated from the adjacent terrain by their color and brightness, regardless of the weather and of the state of surface waves on the water. Accordingly, this method involves collection of color imagery by a video camera and processing of the image data by an algorithm that classifies each pixel as soil, water, or vegetation according to its color and brightness values (see figure). Among the issues that arise is the fact that in the presence of reflections of objects on the opposite shore, it is difficult to distinguish water by color and brightness alone. Another issue is that once a body of water has been identified by means of color and brightness, its boundary must be mapped for use in navigation. Techniques for addressing these issues are under investigation. The second method, which is not limited by time of day, is based on the observation that ladar returns from bodies of water are usually too weak to be detected. In this method, ladar scans of the terrain are analyzed for returns and the absence thereof. In appropriate regions, the presence of water can be inferred from the absence of returns. Under some conditions in which reflections from the bottom are detectable, ladar returns could, in principle, be used to determine depth. The third method involves the recognition of bodies of water as dark areas in short-wavelength infrared (SWIR) images. This method is based on the fact, well known among experts in remote sensing, that water bodies of any appreciable depth appear very dark in near-infrared, overhead imagery. Even under a thick layer of marine fog, SWIR illumination is present. Hence, this method may work even in the presence of clouds, though it is unlikely to work at night. Snow and ice also exhibit very strong absorption at wavelengths greater than about 1.4 m. Hence, the wavelength range of about 1.5 to 1.6 m might be useable in this method for recognizing water, snow, and ice. One notable drawback of this method is that useful look-ahead distance could be limited by surface reflections. The fourth method, intended for use at night, involves the contrast between water and terrain in thermal-infrared (medium-wavelength infrared) imagery. This method is based on the fact that at night, water is usually warmer than the adjacent terrain. Look-ahead distance could be limited in this method because, for reasons not yet fully understood, water appears to darken in the thermal infrared with increasing distance.

Matthes, Larry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preparing for Lunar Exploration: Geology and Field Training for Astronauts

NASA astronauts will soon return to the Moon, this time to the lunar south pole. Astronauts will perform traverses, make geologic observations, and collect samples to return to Earth. Lessons from Apollo show that science returns were optimized because crews were well-trained in both spacewalk operations and field geology. In that spirit, our team of geologists introduced a revised geologic training program for in-coming NASA astronauts that includes classroom activities and fieldwork and is split over 2 years. Year 1 focuses on an introduction to geologic concepts capped by a field exercise. Year two focuses on climate change, the Moon, other planets, and additional fieldwork. Our geology curriculum supports astronaut observations from the ISS and is the foundation for future Artemis geology training, which will include lunar science and increasingly complex field training in planetary-relevant locations. A final piece of our training program provides geology and field mapping experiences for NASA engineers, flight controllers, and managers, to help them understand the principles of fieldwork and relevance to lunar exploration. The Year 1 geology training must be an effective introduction for astronauts who have little or no background in geology. We focus the training around a narrowly defined field problem and use a week of classroom training to prepare the astronauts with the specific skills and background they need to carry out a field exercise on volcanic features, structures, and landforms of the Taos Plateau, New Mexico. Classroom modules are hands-on, using satellite imagery, maps, analog models, and samples, and provide the astronauts with specific and relevant experience in how to make observations and describe what they see, recognize, and interpret patterns, infer processes from products, and analyze relationships to build a story based on evidence from a variety of data sources. At the end of each classroom day, astronauts work in teams to build a preliminary geologic map of the field area, adding new observations and interpretations as they learn about topics in the classroom. Each team’s bucket list of target areas to visit helps shape their investigations during their week in the field. On the final day in the field, each astronaut team presents a geologic map, cross section, and geologic interpretation

Geology↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Tabletop Tool for Modeling Life Support Systems

This paper describes the development plan for a comprehensive research and diagnostic tool for aspects of advanced life support systems in space-based laboratories. Specifically it aims to build a high fidelity tabletop model that can be used for the purpose of risk mitigation, failure mode analysis, contamination tracking, and testing reliability. We envision a comprehensive approach involving experimental work coupled with numerical simulation to develop this diagnostic tool. It envisions a 10% scale transparent model of a space platform such as the International Space Station that operates with water or a specific matched index of refraction liquid as the working fluid. This allows the scaling of a 10 ft x 10 ft x 10 ft room with air flow to 1 ft x 1 ft x 1 ft tabletop model with water/liquid flow. Dynamic similitude for this length scale dictates model velocities to be 67% of full-scale and thereby the time scale of the model to represent 15% of the full- scale system; meaning identical processes in the model are completed in 15% of the full- scale time. The use of an index matching fluid (fluid that matches the refractive index of cast acrylic, the model material) allows making the entire model (with complex internal geometry) transparent and hence conducive to non-intrusive optical diagnostics. So using such a system one can test environment control parameters such as core flows (axial flows), cross flows (from registers and diffusers), potential problem areas such as flow short circuits, inadequate oxygen content, build up of other gases beyond desirable levels, test mixing processes within the system at local nodes or compartments and assess the overall system performance. The system allows quantitative measurements of contaminants introduced in the system and allows testing and optimizing the tracking process and removal of contaminants. The envisaged system will be modular and hence flexible for quick configuration change and subsequent testing. The data and inferences from the tests will allow for improvements in the development and design of next generation life support systems and configurations.

Ramachandran, N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Space Laboratory on a Table Top: A Next Generative ECLSS design and diagnostic tool

This paper describes the development plan for a comprehensive research and diagnostic tool for aspects of advanced life support systems in space-based laboratories. Specifically it aims to build a high fidelity tabletop model that can be used for the purpose of risk mitigation, failure mode analysis, contamination tracking, and testing reliability. We envision a comprehensive approach involving experimental work coupled with numerical simulation to develop this diagnostic tool. It envisions a 10% scale transparent model of a space platform such as the International Space Station that operates with water or a specific matched index of refraction liquid as the working fluid. This allows the scaling of a 10 ft x 10 ft x 10 ft room with air flow to 1 ft x 1 ft x 1 ft tabletop model with water/liquid flow. Dynamic similitude for this length scale dictates model velocities to be 67% of full-scale and thereby the time scale of the model to represent 15% of the full- scale system; meaning identical processes in the model are completed in 15% of the full- scale-time. The use of an index matching fluid (fluid that matches the refractive index of cast acrylic, the model material) allows making the entire model (with complex internal geometry) transparent and hence conducive to non-intrusive optical diagnostics. So using such a system one can test environment control parameters such as core flows (axial flows), cross flows (from registers and diffusers), potential problem areas such as flow short circuits, inadequate oxygen content, build up of other gases beyond desirable levels, test mixing processes within the system at local nodes or compartments and assess the overall system performance. The system allows quantitative measurements of contaminants introduced in the system and allows testing and optimizing the tracking process and removal of contaminants. The envisaged system will be modular and hence flexible for quick configuration change and subsequent testing. The data and inferences from the tests will allow for improvements in the development and design of next generation life support systems and configurations. Preliminary experimental and modeling work in this area will be presented. This involves testing of a single inlet-exit model with detailed 3-D flow visualization and quantitative diagnostics and computational modeling of the system.

Ramachandran, N.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Description of Sensor Assignment Optimization Method as Deployed on a Multi-Node Cluster

Data analytic methods are being developed to address the problem of how to assign a sensor set in a nuclear facility such that a requisite level of process monitoring capability is realized and that the sensor set is sufficiently rich to determine the status of the individual sensors with respect to need for calibration. There is an awareness in the nuclear industry that data analytics combined with rich sensor sets represent a means to improve operations and reduce costs. In the industry the calibration problem has been previously approached as an empirical data-driven problem with several methods having been developed. However, the experience of the utilities over the past ten years with these methods indicates that the absence of physics-based information renders the data-driven approach less reliable. Complicating factors such as the inherent variability of operation (both equipment alignment and operating condition) can confound a pure data-driven approach while there are no rigorous guidelines for determining what constitutes an adequate sensor set. The solution under development to overcome these shortcomings supplements the data analytic method with process information in a so-called process-constrained data-analytic approach. Simple balance equations are written for generic components (e.g., mechanical pump, valve, and heat exchanger). These do not require a priori knowledge of process parameters, such as heat transfer coefficients or friction factors. All that is needed on the part of the utility user is to identify the components and how they are connected. This report describes the development of a parallel computing capability for determining the optimal sensor set. The optimal sensor set problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Computation time increases exponentially as the size of the system grows. To overcome this difficulty a pre-conditioner algorithm is developed to find an approximate solution close the actual solution. This serves as a seed for the full-blown algorithm and acts to constrain the space that must searched. The optimization algorithms are described and the implementation on a parallel computing platform is described. The application of the method to a use case we are solving in collaboration with our utility partner served to illustrate how the default sensor set in a nuclear plant may not provide sufficient coverage to infer sensor calibration status.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Doppler Wind Temperature Sensor (DWTS) Flight Evaluation and Experiments (TES-16, 17)

The Doppler Wind and Temperature Sounder instrument (DWTS), developed by Global Atmospheric Technologies and Sciences (GATS), is a simple but powerful tool that has the potential to become a new window through which to study the dynamics of the upper atmosphere. Based around a defense-grade infrared camera peering through a static gas cell used as a scanning spectral filter, the DWTS instrument infers wind velocities and kinetic temperatures through the stratosphere and lower thermosphere. The DWTS achieves this scanning by measuring the induced Doppler shift and Doppler broadening of emissions as they pass through the DWTS field of view (Gordley, et al., 2011). The DWTS holds promise in improving accuracy in weather determination , and the core technology can be adapted to study other planetary atmospheres. In partnership with GATS, NOAA, and other collaborators, NASA Ames and the Nano Orbital Workshop group have been working to evaluate the DWTS instrument on orbit and optimize it as a flexible nanosatellite payload. The first mission selected for DWTS evaluation is preparing for flight in early 2024, which will be followed by a more capable science mission in 2025, with both missions being part of the TES-n/NOW heritage flight series. The first rapid technology demonstration flight, TES-16/DWTS-A, will demonstrate a single DWTS instrument in an approximately 2U payload volume with the imaging aperture perpendicular to the flight velocity vector. With an estimated power consumption of 50 watts, supplied via a custom NOW-designed DC-DC converter, the instrument will maintain the imaging sensor plane at 80K during instrument evaluation periods using an integrated pulse-tube cryocooler. Data from DWTS will be captured and processed via a NOW-designed custom data interface unit before being transmitted via S-band radio back to select ground stations, with instrument command and control operated via L-band global-coverage radio. The subsequent TES-17/DWTS-B mission will be a dedicated science mission to obtain full altitude coverage from 20 to 200 km during both day and night, all from a single small-satellite equipped with three DWTS instruments, each hosting a different gas cell chemistry. The intention of this flight series, and one of NASA’s interests in this instrument, is to advance a Martian atmospheric instrument (Colaprete, Gordley, et al) which, if successful, would greatly further understanding of Martian atmospheric behavior. The proposed paper will review the flight series in detail, including challenges facing the TES-16 flight tests and the projected challenges and application to Mars study. Additional detail regarding the possible applications of a Cognitive Communication technique in current flight development by NOW collaborators at the NASA Glenn Research Center will also be discussed, including the implications of using an automated User Initiated Service (UIS) protocol to maximize the data collected per orbit.

nanosatellite↗

NASA NTRS2004

Objective Lightning Forecasting at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System Data

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) in Florida include a probability of thunderstorm occurrence in their daily morning briefings. This information is used by personnel involved in determining the possibility of violating Launch Commit Criteria, evaluating Flight Rules for the Space Shuttle, and daily planning for ground operation activities on Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS. Much of the current lightning probability forecast is based on a subjective analysis of model and observational data. The forecasters requested that a lightning probability forecast tool based on statistical analysis of historical warm-season (May - September) data be developed in order to increase the objectivity of the daily thunderstorm probability forecast. The tool is a set of statistical lightning forecast equations that provide a lightning occurrence probability for the day by 1100 UTC (0700 EDT) during the warm season. This study used 15 years (1989-2003) of warm season data to develop the objective forecast equations. The local CCAFS 1000 UTC sounding was used to calculate stability parameters for equation predictors. The Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data were used to determine lightning occurrence for each day. The CGLSS data have been found to be more reliable indicators of lightning in the area than surface observations through local informal analyses. This work was based on the results from two earlier research projects. Everitt (1999) used surface observations and rawinsonde data to develop logistic regression equations that forecast the daily thunderstorm probability at CCAFS. The Everitt (1999) equations showed an improvement in skill over the Neumann-Pfeffer thunderstorm index (Neumann 1971), which uses multiple linear regression, and also persistence and climatology forecasts. Lericos et al. (2002) developed lightning distributions over the Florida peninsula based on specific flow regimes. The flow regimes were inferred from the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at Miami (MIA), Tampa (TBW), and Jacksonville (JAX), Florida, and the lightning data were from the National Lightning Detection Network. The results suggested that the daily flow regime may be an important predictor of lightning occurrence on KSC/CCAFS.

Lambert, Winifred↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-correlation of the extragalactic gamma-ray background with the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect in the cosmic microwave background

Cosmic rays in galaxy clusters are unique probes of energetic processes operating with large-scale structures in the Universe. Precise measurements of cosmic rays in galaxy clusters are essential for improving our understanding of nonthermal components in the intracluster medium (ICM) as well as the accuracy of cluster mass estimates in cosmological analyses. In this paper, we perform a cross-correlation analysis with the extragalactic gamma-ray background and the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect in the cosmic microwave background. The expected cross-correlation signal would contain rich information about the cosmic-ray-induced gamma-ray emission in the most massive galaxy clusters at $\textit{z}$ ~ 0.1 – 0.2 . We analyze the gamma-ray background map with 8 years of data taken by the Large Area Telescope onboard Fermi satellite and the publicly available tSZ map by Planck. We confirm that the measured cross-correlation is consistent with a null detection, and thus it enables us to put the tightest constraint on the acceleration efficiency of cosmic-ray protons at shocks in and around galaxy clusters. In this work, we find the acceleration efficiency must be below 5% with a 2σ confidence level when the hydrostatic mass bias of clusters is assumed to be 30%, and our result is not significantly affected by the assumed value of the hydrostatic mass bias. Our constraint implies that the nonthermal cosmic-ray pressure in the ICM can introduce only a≲3% level of the hydrostatic mass bias, highlighting that cosmic rays alone do not account for the mass bias inferred by the Planck analyses. Finally, we discuss future detectability prospects of cosmic-ray-induced gamma rays from the Perseus cluster for the Cherenkov Telescope Array.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗