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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Regional Water and Energy Balance in Contemporary Reanalyses

Regional to continental water and energy balance in reanalyses provide crucial information on the climate and climate variations in that region and can contrast other regions. Reanalyses are a valuable tool in piecing together the complete balance owing to the incorporation of the budgets in the background model and the assimilation of observation. On the other hand, the background model has its own biases and observational assimilation can lead to non-negligible tendencies within the budgets, and these can vary over space and time. Here, we will compare the balance within several reanalyses and how they have evolved over recent decades. Several observational data products will provide reference points in the comparison. In addition, a recent project has integrated observations of the water and energy budgets in an optimization that aims to reduce the imbalance of regional budgets in using observational terms from disparate sources. In evaluating the regional balances, we will incorporate, when available, the water and energy convergence terms as well as their analysis increments (which may be diagnosed as residuals). The reanalyses considered here include: Japanese Reanalyses for Three Quarters Century (JRA3Q), ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and the NCEP Reanalysis II (NCEPR2). NCEPR2 is representative of the late 90s technology, while the others represent the contemporary climate reanalyses presently available. We will discuss the regional balances over key river basins (e.g. Mississippi and Amazon), and a range of continents including those well observed (North America and Europe) and those with fewer consistent observations (e.g. Africa). These contrasting regions show the degree of advancement in reanalyses and expose areas in need of improvement. The results also demonstrate the usefulness of producing complete atmospheric water and energy budgets as part of the diagnostic output.

Michael Bosilovich↗
NASA NTRS1993

Planet X - No dynamical evidence in the optical observations

It is shown that the alleged 'unexplained anomalies in the motion of Uranus' disappear when one properly accounts for the correct value of the mass of Neptune and properly adjusts the orbit of Uranus to the observational data. Also, it is shown that each of the 'irregularities in the measured positions of Neptune' has a complete explanation within the framework of the presently known solar system. As a check of certainty, an actual planetary ephemeris is integrated which well fits the observations of Uranus. Minor systematic errors do remain in the data, but they are very small; they are easily explained by a number of uncertainties in the observations themselves. There is now known to be a mass concentration of significant size in the outer solar system - 1992 QB1. In comparison to any of the major planets, though, this object is miniscule. For the meridian circle observations, there is still no evidence which requires or even indicates the existence of any planet-sized object; there remains no need to hypothesize the existence of a tenth planet in the solar system.

Standish, E. M., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Workflow-based Intelligent Network Data Movement Advisor with End-to-end Performance Optimization

Next-generation eScience applications often generate large amounts of simulation, experimental, or observational data that must be shared and managed by collaborative organizations. Advanced networking technologies and services have been rapidly developed and deployed to facilitate such massive data transfer. However, these technologies and services have not been fully utilized mainly because their use typically requires significant domain knowledge and in many cases application users are even not aware of their existence. By leveraging the functionalities of an existing Network-Aware Data Movement Advisor (NADMA) utility, we propose a new Workflow-based Intelligent Network Data Movement Advisor (WINDMA) with end-to-end performance optimization for this DOE funded project. This WINDMA system integrates three major components: resource discovery, data movement, and status monitoring, and supports the sharing of common data movement workflows through account and database management. This system provides a web interface and interacts with existing data/space management and discovery services such as Storage Resource Management, transport methods such as GridFTP and GlobusOnline, and network resource provisioning brokers such as ION and OSCARS. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed transport-support workflow system in several use cases based on its implementation and deployment in DOE wide-area networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Statistical tests of galactic dynamo theory

Mean-field galactic dynamo theory is the leading theory to explain the prevalence of regular magnetic fields in spiral galaxies, but its systematic comparison with observations is still incomplete and fragmentary. Here we compare predictions of mean-field dynamo models to observational data on magnetic pitch angle and the strength of the mean magnetic field. We demonstrate that a standard α{sup 2}Ω dynamo model produces pitch angles of the regular magnetic fields of nearby galaxies that are reasonably consistent with available data. The dynamo estimates of the magnetic field strength are generally within a factor of a few of the observational values. Reasonable agreement between theoretical and observed pitch angles generally requires the turbulent correlation time τ to be in the range of 10–20 Myr, in agreement with standard estimates. Moreover, good agreement also requires that the ratio of the ionized gas scale height to root-mean-square turbulent velocity increases with radius. Our results thus widen the possibilities to constrain interstellar medium parameters using observations of magnetic fields. This work is a step toward systematic statistical tests of galactic dynamo theory. Such studies are becoming more and more feasible as larger data sets are acquired using current and up-and-coming instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future Test Bed and Data Infrastructure Final Report

The collaborative Climate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future (CSSEF) project started in July 2011 with the goal of accelerating the development of climate model components (i.e., atmosphere, ocean and sea ice, and land surface) and enhancing their predictive capabilities while incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ). This effort required accessing and converting observational data sets into specialized model testing and verification data sets and building a model development test bed, where model components and sub-models can be rapidly evaluated. CSSEF’s prototype test bed demonstrated, how an integrated testbed could eliminate tedious activities associated with model development and evaluation, by providing the capability to constantly compare model output—where scientists store, acquire, reformat, regrid, and analyze data sets one-by-one—to observational measurements in a controlled test bed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Mg IX emission lines in an active region spectrum obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical electron-temperature-sensitive Mg IX emission line ratios are presented for R(sub 1) = I(443.96 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 2) = I(439.17 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 3) = I(443.37 A)/I(368.06 A), R(sub 4) = I(441.22 A)/I(368.06 A), and R(sub 5) = I(448.28 A)/I(368.06 A). A comparison of these with observational data for a solar active region, obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), reveals excellent agreement between theory and observation for R(sub 1) through R(sub 4), with discrepancies that average only 9%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on board Skylab. However in the case of R(sub 5), the theoretical and observed ratios differ by almost a factor of 2. This may be due to the measured intensity of the 448.28 A line being seriously affected by instrumental effects, as it lies very close to the long wavelength edge of the SERTS spectral coverage (235.46-448.76 A).

Keenan, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS1974

UBV photometry of Mars

A critical analysis of selected high-quality photometric observations of Mars indicates that: (1) the phase function is concave upward out to at least 40-deg phase. No sudden brightening occurs at opposition, but the curvature increases at small phase; (2) large systematic differences (0.1-0.2 mag.) exist between different observers' data. However, the small random scatter attributable to Mars (0.01-0.02 mag.) in the better series suggests that these differences represent systematic errors in data reduction, not variations in the planet's brightness; (3) the disentangling of seasonal, diurnal, and phase effects leaves considerable ambiguity; more observations are needed, over a long time, with a stable instrumental system. However, even the present data are sufficient to expose substantial errors in published phase curves of Mars (and consequently, in interpretations based on them).

Young, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Astronomical CCD observing and reduction techniques

CCD instrumentation and techniques in observational astronomy are surveyed. The general topics addressed include: history of large array scientific CCD imagers; noise sources and reduction processes; basic photometry techniques; introduction to differential time-series astronomical photometry using CCDs; 2D imagery; point source spectroscopy; extended object spectrophotometry; introduction to CCD astrometry; solar system applications for CCDs; CCD data; observing with infrared arrays; image processing, data analysis software, and computer systems for CCD data reduction and analysis. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Howell, Steve B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2)

The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational “MIPkit” synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

20 to 40 micron spectroscopy of the Orion Nebula

Attention is given to a moderate-resolution spectra of the Orion Nebula. Observational data are presented between 20 and 40 microns. Several models are shown that attempt to account for all of the observations from 20 microns to 1 mm. A model in which the dust within the molecular cloud has a clumpy distribution is given. Data show that the individual clumps have effective grain temperatures of 100 deg K and they are optically thick for wavelengths shorter than 400 microns.-

Houck, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Twentieth-Century Hydrometeorological Reconstructions to Study the Multidecadal Variations of the Water Cycle Over France

Characterizing and understanding the multidecadal variations of the continental hydrological cycle is a challenging issue given the limitation of observed data sets. In this paper, a new approach to derive twentieth century hydrological reconstructions over France with an hydrological model is presented. The method combines the results of long-term atmospheric reanalyses downscaled with a stochastic statistical method and homogenized station observations to derive the meteorological forcing needed for hydrological modeling. Different methodological choices are tested and evaluated. We show that using homogenized observations to constrain the results of statistical downscaling help to improve the reproduction of precipitation, temperature, and river flows variability. In particular, it corrects some unrealistic long-term trends associated with the atmospheric reanalyses. Observationally constrained reconstructions therefore constitute a valuable data set to study the multidecadal hydrological variations over France. Thanks to these reconstructions, we confirm that the multidecadal variations previously noted in French river flows have mainly a climatic origin. Moreover, we show that multidecadal variations exist in other hydrological variables (evapotranspiration, snow cover, and soil moisture). Depending on the region, the persistence from spring to summer of soil moisture or snow anomalies generated during spring by temperature and precipitation variations may explain river flows variations in summer, when no concomitant climate variations exist.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Data assimilation and model evaluation experiment datasets

The Institute for Naval Oceanography, in cooperation with Naval Research Laboratories and universities, executed the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEE) for the Gulf Stream region during fiscal years 1991-1993. Enormous effort has gone into the preparation of several high-quality and consistent datasets for model initialization and verification. This paper describes the preparation process, the temporal and spatial scopes, the contents, the structure, etc., of these datasets. The goal of DAMEE and the need of data for the four phases of experiment are briefly stated. The preparation of DAMEE datasets consisted of a series of processes: (1) collection of observational data; (2) analysis and interpretation; (3) interpolation using the Optimum Thermal Interpolation System package; (4) quality control and re-analysis; and (5) data archiving and software documentation. The data products from these processes included a time series of 3D fields of temperature and salinity, 2D fields of surface dynamic height and mixed-layer depth, analysis of the Gulf Stream and rings system, and bathythermograph profiles. To date, these are the most detailed and high-quality data for mesoscale ocean modeling, data assimilation, and forecasting research. Feedback from ocean modeling groups who tested this data was incorporated into its refinement. Suggestions for DAMEE data usages include (1) ocean modeling and data assimilation studies, (2) diagnosis and theoretical studies, and (3) comparisons with locally detailed observations.

Lai, Chung-Cheng A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Perspectives on AI Architectures and Codesign for Earth System Predictability

Abstract Recently, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) programs organized and held the Artificial Intelligence for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) workshop series. From this workshop, a critical conclusion that the DOE BER and ASCR community came to is the requirement to develop a new paradigm for Earth system predictability focused on enabling artificial intelligence (AI) across the field, laboratory, modeling, and analysis activities, called model experimentation (ModEx). BER’s ModEx is an iterative approach that enables process models to generate hypotheses. The developed hypotheses inform field and laboratory efforts to collect measurement and observation data, which are subsequently used to parameterize, drive, and test model (e.g., process based) predictions. A total of 17 technical sessions were held in this AI4ESP workshop series. This paper discusses the topic of the AI Architectures and Codesign session and associated outcomes. The AI Architectures and Codesign session included two invited talks, two plenary discussion panels, and three breakout rooms that covered specific topics, including 1) DOE high-performance computing (HPC) systems, 2) cloud HPC systems, and 3) edge computing and Internet of Things (IoT). We also provide forward-looking ideas and perspectives on potential research in this codesign area that can be achieved by synergies with the other 16 session topics. These ideas include topics such as 1) reimagining codesign, 2) data acquisition to distribution, 3) heterogeneous HPC solutions for integration of AI/ML and other data analytics like uncertainty quantification with Earth system modeling and simulation, and 4) AI-enabled sensor integration into Earth system measurements and observations. Such perspectives are a distinguishing aspect of this paper. Significance Statement This study aims to provide perspectives on AI architectures and codesign approaches for Earth system predictability. Such visionary perspectives are essential because AI-enabled model-data integration has shown promise in improving predictions associated with climate change, perturbations, and extreme events. Our forward-looking ideas guide what is next in codesign to enhance Earth system models, observations, and theory using state-of-the-art and futuristic computational infrastructure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Extended calculations with spectroscopic accuracy: Energy levels and transition properties for the fluorine-like isoelectronic sequence with Z = 24–30

We have performed extensive multiconfiguration Dirac–Hartree–Fock calculations and second-order many-body perturbation calculations for F-like ions with Z = 24–30. Energy levels and transition rates for electric dipole (E1), electric-quadrupole (E2), electric-octupole (E3), magnetic dipole (M1), and magnetic-quadrupole (M2) transitions, as well as radiative lifetimes, are provided for the lowest 200 levels belonging to the 1s{sup 2}2s{sup 2}2p{sup 5}, 1s{sup 2}2s2p{sup 6}, 1s{sup 2}2s{sup 2}2p{sup 4}3l, 1s{sup 2}2s2p{sup 5}3l, 1s{sup 2}2p{sup 6}3l, and 1s{sup 2}2s{sup 2}2p{sup 4}4l configurations of each ion. The results from the two sets of calculations are in excellent agreement. Extensive comparisons are also made with other theoretical results and observed data from the CHIANTI and NIST databases. The present energies and wavelengths are believed to be accurate enough to aid line identifications involving the n = 3 and n = 4 configurations, for which observations are largely missing. The calculated wavelengths and transition data will be useful in the modeling and diagnostics of astrophysical and fusion plasmas.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

Effect of Fe and Co doping on electrical and thermal properties of La{sub 0.5}Ce{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1−x}(Fe, Co){sub x}O{sub 3} manganites

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • Low temperature resistivity minimum contributes to Coulomb and Kondo scattering. • Metallic resistivity shows electron, magnon and phonon scattering are significant. • At high temperatures small polaron conduction mechanism is viable. • Susceptibility measurements show ferromagnetic–paramagnetic transition. - Abstract: The effect of Fe and Co doping on structural, electrical and thermal properties of half doped La{sub 0.5}Ce{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1−x}(Fe, Co){sub x}O{sub 3} is investigated. The structure of these crystallizes in to orthorhombically distorted perovskite structure. The electrical resistivity of La{sub 0.5}Ce{sub 0.5}MnO{sub 3} exhibits metal-semiconductor transition (T{sub MS} at ∼225 K). However, La{sub 0.5}Ce{sub 0.5}Mn{sub 1−x}TM{sub x}O{sub 3} (TM = Fe, Co; 0.0 ≤ x ≤ 0.1) manganites show semiconducting behavior. The thermopower measurements infer hole as charge carriers and electron–magnon as well spin wave fluctuation mechanism are effective at low temperature domain and SPC model fits the observed data at high temperature. The magnetic susceptibility measurement confirms a transition from paramagnetic to ferromagnetic phase. The observed peaks in the specific heat measurements, shifts to lower temperatures and becomes progressively broader with doping of transition metals on Mn-site. The thermal conductivity is measured in the temperature range of 10–350 K with a magnitude in between 10 and 80 mW/cm K.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗