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Problems of Nuclear Technology and Radiation Safety

This work discusses ethical issues arising in the course of the development of nuclear technologies and related issues of radiation safety. Attention is paid to ethical dilemmas and proposed solutions. The author suggests a critical analysis of the relevant discussions, conducted, first of all, in the English-language literature, and muses on the specifics associated with their transfer to the Russian context. This study considers ethical problems arising in context of the depletion of uranium resources and nuclear waste management and including the inevitable risks for the present and future generations, such as inter- and intragenerational justice (Gardiner's problem) and the problem of the identity of future generations (Parfit’s problem); problems of collectivity and individuality in the assessment of permissible radiation doses for workers at nuclear enterprises and the population associated with the need to combine deontological and utilitarian approaches in the practice of radiation protection. The author demonstrates cultural differences in attitudes towards the safety of the current and future generations of the population of countries and regions and the associated ambiguities in the choice of technology for nuclear reactors, long-term disposal or processing of nuclear waste; double standards in ensuring the radiation safety of personnel of nuclear facilities and the population; ethical problems of risk compensation to workers of radiation-hazardous production facilities; issues of gender differences in sensitivity to radiation exposure, gender equality and discrimination in relation to access to the labor market in the nuclear industry. The article elucidates the importance of socio-humanitarian discussion of the ethical problems of nuclear technologies and radiation safety Such debates currently are almost absent in the Russian-language philosophical literature, despite its exceptional importance due to both the level of development of nuclear energy in Russia and the potential risks that these technologies pose to current and future generations of both employees of nuclear facilities and the population of the country, neighboring countries, and the world. The purpose of this article, thus, is to initiate such a discussion.

ethics of science and technology↗

Using Whisper-1.1 to Guide Improvements to Nuclear Data Evaluations

Along with the latest release of the general purpose Monte Carlo radiation transport code, MCNP6.2, came the first officially released version of Whisper, version 1.1, a statistical analysis code used for nuclear criticality safety (NCS) validation. The Whisper software package is primarily used to calculate the upper subcritical limit (USL) of a particular application case along with components of the margin of subcriticality (MOS). In the calculation of the MOS due to nuclear data uncertainties, Whisper uses the generalized linear-least-squares (GLLS) approach to obtain adjusted nuclear data uncertainties which are then propagated to estimate the nuclear data uncertainties in the k eff of the application. Due to the fact that Whisper contains the simulated and measured k eff values for over 1100 benchmarks, nuclear data sensitivity profiles for each benchmark along with the nuclear data covariance matrices, all of which are used in the GLLS method, it is possible to easily utilize these data available to help guide improvements to nuclear data evaluations. In the present work, the Whisper data and the GLLS method are used together to suggest an adjusted nuclear data cross section evaluation specifically for 233 U such that the agreement between the calculated and experimental k eff measurements of the relevant benchmarks are improved. With this adjusted nuclear data available, feedback to the theoretical and experimental nuclear data community is provided.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Future of Robotics/Remote Handling Solutions for the Nuclear Industry - 17347

The nuclear industry is seeing a resurgence of development and utilization of advanced integrated systems; fused sensor arrays; autonomous, remote and hybrid operations; and augmented reality display and control system interfaces. A new age of 'robotics' and remote handling technologies. For many years the use of robotics in nuclear applications has been done sparingly due to technical limitations, perceived and real reliability issues, perceived and real risk concerns, and cost. Although robotics have been used successfully on a variety of projects globally, the underuse of this technology, particularly within the nuclear industry both public and private, is overwhelming. As the number of complex, high hazard projects in the nuclear industry increases, the use of robotics for maintenance, inspection, repair, decommissioning, and remediation activities will become increasingly vital in the future. The risks associated with direct human exposure are high and thus eliminating the risk, or managing it to acceptable levels by using robotics/remote handling as well as other technologies is critical to success as more extreme environment operations and tasks are undertaken. Recent and ongoing advances in technology now allows us to safely and effectively remove the direct / in-situ human element from these type of activities. All the while delivering the same or better outcomes when considering the alternatives when limited or no direct / in-situ human intervention would be allowed. The biggest obstacles the nuclear industry faces center on the cost, reliability, maintainability, effectiveness and appropriate uses of robotics/remote handling solutions in a nuclear (radiation and/or contamination) environment. In order to mitigate these concerns, a sound approach to the use of robotics needs to be addressed. This approach must include: 1. A better understanding of what technology is available and how it can be utilized across multiple sectors, e.g. Commercial Off-the-Shelf (COTS) technology modified / adapted for the nuclear sector; 2. How to implement technology in an integrated pragmatic approach that is cost effective by combining technological know-how / subject matter expertise (SME) with the equivalent subject matter expertise in regulatory, operational and maintenance requirements and limitations, such that a more complete set of functional and operational requirements can be jointly developed in the process. 3. The integration of requirements (project, site, regulatory, etc.), risk management (human factors) and technology, i.e. a marriage between political, programmatic, and technological factors. As the development of robotic/remote handling technology progresses and the successful implementation on projects is demonstrated, the better off the industry will be. This paper provides an overview of the fundamental issues facing the nuclear industry with regard to effective and successful technology selection, maturation, deployment, and integrated risk management, and offers suggestions on how we may overcome these persistent issues now and in the future. Robotic systems and solution experts that are focused on the integration of proven technologies - and that are an integrated part of the project team from its onset - are a necessity for successful planning during nuclear operations. The approach to nuclear operations should always be, 'what is the simplest, most effective way we can approach a particular project need?'. Understanding and implementing the right technologies is where the true value will be recognized. The integration of systems, which includes more than just robotics, is key when developing schemes for these types of complex operations. Often times during planning, the remote handling needs of the job are set aside to be evaluated at a later time due to risk concerns and lack of knowledge. The issue is, experts in the area of robotics or remote handling are rarely involved in the upfront planning. As a result, unnecessary constraints, risks, and obstacles are imposed on project teams to deliver. If done intelligently, this should be introduced at the forefront of planning. Using this type of sound approach leads to effective task organization for the end user. By developing an overall philosophy that leverages proven technologies with implementation expertise; i.e. solutions versus products, is a recipe for success. This is the area that is under-appreciated in the industry and one that needs to be recognized on a much broader scale. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Preliminary Evaluation of the SNF Transportation Infrastructure at Operating Commercial Nuclear Power Plant Sites - 18466

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has a goal to develop solutions for the long-term, sustainable management of the nation's spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy's (DOE-NE) Office of Integrated Waste Management (IWM) is applying integrated waste management system analysis, system engineering, and decision analysis principles to inform future decisions regarding potential future nuclear waste management system architectures. One aspect of an integrated nuclear waste management system architecture is transportation of spent nuclear fuel from the fleet of commercial nuclear reactors to interim storage and/or disposal facilities. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of the SNF transportation infrastructure at existing commercial nuclear power plant sites. Reactor site surveys performed by DOE in the 1990's and early 2000's that described the transportation infrastructure at commercial reactor sites at that time served as the starting point for the evaluation. Geographical information systems (GIS) and available open-source information about the reactor sites were used to identify changes in the transportation infrastructure at operating commercial nuclear power plant sites. The data and schematics contained within the previous surveys were comparatively analyzed alongside the GIS tools Google Earth, Google Maps, and DOE's Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START) to determine potential transportation modes and to identify improvements to the transportation infrastructure that may be needed at each of the sites. The preliminary results obtained and the insight gained from this effort support both integrated waste management system architecture analyses and future planning efforts. This is a technical paper that does not take into account the contractual limitations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). Under the provisions of the Standard Contract, DOE does not consider spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters to be an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract provisions prevail. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Recent Progress in Nuclear Lattice Simulations

We review several recent results on lattice simulations by the Nuclear Lattice Effective Field Theory Collaboration. In the first part we discuss the implementation of nuclear forces on the lattice using chiral effective field theory. The new development we highlight is the use of non-local lattice operators to achieve a simpler spin channel decomposition, in contrast with previous studies that considered only local interactions. In the second part, we present evidence that nuclear physics is close to a quantum phase transition. This development is also linked to the study of the differences between local and non-local interactions. In the final part we further explore the link between the nuclear forces and nuclear structure. We consider the simplest possible nuclear interaction which can accurately reproduce the ground state energies of neutron matter, light nuclei, and medium-mass nuclei. We discuss what these recent developments say about the emergence of nuclear structure from nuclear forces and the road ahead for nuclear lattice simulations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment

China, the world’s largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with studies previously conducted. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper considers the interactions among different socioeconomic development pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating the deployment of nuclear technologies. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The amount of annual nuclear generation across scenarios and studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total Chinese nuclear energy generating capacity – around 3900 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclear power plants.

China, integrated assesment, Nuclear Power Plants↗

Applications of neutron radiography for the nuclear power industry

The World Conference on Neutron Radiography (WCNR) and International Topical Meeting on Neutron Radiography (ITMNR) series have been running over 35 years. The most recent event, ITMNR-8, focused on industrial applications and was the first time this series was hosted in China. In China, more than twenty new nuclear power plants are in construction and plans have been announced to increase the nuclear capacity further by a factor of three within fifteen years. There are additional prospects in many other nations. Neutron tests were vital during previous developments of materials and components for nuclear power applications, as reported in this conference series. For example a majority of the 140 papers in the Proceedings of the First WCNR are for the benefit of the nuclear power industry. Included are reviews of the diverse techniques being applied in Europe, Japan, the United States, and at many other centers. Many of those techniques are being utilized and advanced to the present time. Neutron radiography of irradiated nuclear fuel provides more comprehensive information about the internal condition of irradiated nuclear fuel than any other non-destructive technique to date. Applications include examination of nuclear waste, nuclear fuels, cladding, control elements, and other critical components. In this paper, the techniques developed and applied internationally for the nuclear power industry since the earliest years are reviewed, and the question is asked whether neutron test techniques can be of value in development of the present and future generations of nuclear power plants world-wide.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

How can a diverse set of integral and semi-integral measurements inform identification of discrepant nuclear data?

Nuclear data are used for a variety of applications, including criticality safety, reactor performance, and material safeguards. Despite the breadth of use-cases, the effective neutron multiplication factor, keff, of ICSBEP critical assemblies are primarily used for nuclear data validation; these are sensitive to specific energy regions and nuclides and are unable to uniquely constrain nuclear data. As a consequence, general-purpose nuclear data libraries, such as ENDF/B-VIII.0, may have deficiencies that, while not apparent in criticality applications, negatively impact other applications, such as non-destructive analysis of special nuclear material and neutron diagnosed subcritical experiments. Recent work by the Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data (EUCLID) project developed a machine learning tool, RAFIEKI, which uses random forests and the SHAP metric to determine which nuclear data contribute most to predicted bias between measured and simulated responses (e.g. keff). This paper contrasts RAFIEKI analysis applied to keff only against RAFIEKI analysis with keff paired with either LLNL pulsed sphere measurements or subcritical benchmarks. Two examples show that a) including pulsed sphere measurements substantially increases 9Be nuclear data importance to bias between 2 and 15 MeV, and b) including subcritical benchmarks has the potential for disentangling compensating errors between 240Pu (n,el) and (n,il) cross-sections between 0.1 and 10 MeV. These results show that RAFIEKI analysis applied to response sets that include, but go beyond, keff can aid nuclear data evaluators in identifying issues in nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A New Look to Nuclear Data

Databases of evaluated nuclear data form a cornerstone on which we build academic nuclear structure physics, reaction physics, astrophysics, and many applied nuclear technologies. In basic research, nuclear data are essential for selecting, designing and conducting experiments, and for the development and testing of theoretical models to understand the fundamental properties of atomic nuclei. Likewise, the applied fields of nuclear power, homeland security, stockpile stewardship and nuclear medicine, all have deep roots requiring evaluated nuclear data. Each of these fields requires rapid and easy access to up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable databases. The DOE-funded US Nuclear Data Program is a specific and coordinated effort tasked to compile, evaluate and disseminate nuclear structure and reaction data such that it can be used by the world-wide nuclear physics community.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Market-based Policies for Non-Proliferation

Access to weapons-useable fissile material—highly enriched uranium and separated plutonium—is the primary technical barrier to nuclear weapons development. Nuclear non-proliferation policy is largely concerned with the secure distribution and use of these materials and the technologies that produce them. To the extent that both materials and technologies are traded in markets, the problem may be viewed as one of regulating markets to give an acceptable set of allocative outcomes. While a laissez-faire approach to these markets was rejected long ago, most current policy is based on prescribed or proscribed behavior rather than market incentives. “Market-based” non-proliferation policies would act through incentives in the nuclear materials and technology markets rather than by prescribing outcomes or behavior. Possible polices of this sort include subsidized enrichment services, credits to impute value to spent nuclear fuel, and new markets for special scarce nuclear materials. While market-based policies will not replace command-and-control policies entirely, they could lead to efficient regulation which suffices for most market participants, reserving special, more discriminatory instruments for the few hard cases.

nulcear fuel markets, nonproliferation, SWU↗

NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure. Figure 1: Project activities The study will consider a representative NPP reinforced concrete reactor building and representative plant safety system. This study will leverage existing research and development (R&D) activities at INL. Figure 1 shows the proposed study steps with the steps in blue representing activities already funded at INL and the steps in purple the activities that would be funded under this proposal. The following results will be documented: 1) Comparison of seismic risk for the non-seismically isolated (non-SI) and seismically isolated (SI) NPP, and 2) an estimate of construction cost savings when implementing SI at the site of the generic NPP.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Public Preferences Related to Radioactive Waste Management Nuclear Energy and Environment: Methodology and Response Reference Report for the 2014 Energy and Environment Survey

The results described in this report are from nationwide surveys between 2006 and 2014 on preferences of US residents concerning the environment and energy sources. The most recent 2014 survey was undertaken to determine how consent, in the context of nuclear facility siting, is understood and evaluated by a cross-section of the American public. Continuing attention to the events at the Fukushima nuclear facility, coupled with its negative implications for public support for nuclear energy, has changed the balance of risk and benefit perceptions, and thus the context in which nuclear facility siting efforts will occur. In addition, the portion of the public most concerned about climate change have typically been those most concerned about the environment in general, and in turn, are those that have traditionally been hostile to nuclear energy. The overall survey results show that the broader public is not well informed about the nuclear fuel cycle including energy production from nuclear reactors and current policies for the management of used nuclear fuel. In addition, the surveys find that respondents are reluctant to continue to rely on temporary on-site storage of used nuclear fuel, and that there is moderate support for developing one or more interim storage facilities. The survey responses also suggest that the level of trust accorded a new nuclear waste authority by the public will be sensitive to how it is institutionally defined. For a hypothetical community, which had volunteered to host an interim storage facility within 50 miles of their homes, the majority of respondents indicated that veto authority in the siting process should be limited to (a) majorities of local and statewide voters, (b) state and federal environmental regulatory authorities, and (c) governors. The respondents also indicated that the state and local host community should be permitted to withdraw consent up to the point at which a license to build the facility is submitted, but not after the license is received and facility construction initiated. The 2013 and 2014 surveys posed a set of questions concerning respondents' expectations about engaging in the process for siting an interim storage facility. Roughly half of the respondents said they would likely attend informational meetings, and nearly half said they would likely communicate with elected officials or would likely express their views on the topic via social media. Relatively few -- about one in five -- said they would be likely to actively participate in support for or opposition of an ISF. Finally, the 2014 results suggest that while respondents are more likely to support a citizen-led deliberative panel process than one led by experts, this preference does not seem to influence their opinion about the expected outcome of the siting process.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nuclear Security Governance in India: Institutions, Instruments, and Culture (2019)

There is an emerging consciousness in India of the importance of nuclear security and safety. Motivated by a combination of rapid growth in its civil nuclear sector, heightened scrutiny of recent nuclear accidents around the world, and the deteriorating regional security environment, India has pushed to adopt measures to strengthen and enhance its nuclear security and safety governance structures. India recognizes that the various recent global nuclear security initiatives are in its own best interest and has been an enthusiastic participant in the Nuclear Security Summit process. Today, India demonstrates a greater willingness to showcase its nuclear security arrangements before the public and has undertaken many institutional, legal, and operational reforms to maintain international regime compliance. This study takes a comprehensive look at India's approach to nuclear security and critically examines the physical security measures the country has put in place. Particular focus is placed on the evolution and strengths, as well as weaknesses, of the country's nuclear security institutions, instruments, practices, and culture. Given that the strengthening of India's nuclear security governance is an ongoing endeavor, the paper also puts forward a number of policy recommendations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Oxidation Behavior and Property Degradation of Nuclear Graphites

During its multidecade operation in the core of nuclear reactors, graphite components are subjected to aggressive and continuous exposure to a high field of ionizing and neutron irradiation, high temperature, and various types of present and postulated chemical attacks. High density, high crystallinity polygranular synthetic graphite is unique among other materials for its extraordinary capacity of resisting and adapting to the aggression inflicted by high temperature, high energy neutron bombardment and ionizing gamma radiation. But, as a carbonaceous material, even though of very high purity, graphite is reactive towards common oxidizing agents: oxygen, carbon dioxide, water. Safe operation of HTGRs relies, among other aspects, on engineered safeguard systems for efficient and continuous protection of graphite components against oxidation. Graphite oxidation behavior was, and continues to be, an important direction of theoretical and experimental research, engineering analyses, models and simulations, and design and safety regulations. The avalanche of publications, reports, experimental data, computer codes, and regulatory documents related to oxidation behavior of nuclear graphite is now accelerating to new levels, prompted by the increased interest for nuclear energy as a clean, carbon-free energy source. Even though public’s perception of nuclear energy advantages may still be influenced by the memories of past accidents of nuclear reactors from generations II and III, the community of informed scientists and engineers, regulators and statemen knows that generation IV of nuclear reactors is designed at very high safety standards, doubled by great advances of scientific knowledge and technological progress. One of routes of these recent advances is directed at better understanding of graphite oxidation behavior, its relationship with graphite manufacturing and microstructural properties, along with the effects of various environmental factors and process variables. Together, the recent progress in manufacturing, properties characterization, and modeling of intricated physical and chemical processes that concur to the oxidation behavior led to development of powerful simulation codes able to analyze various scenarios of normal operation and hypothetical off-normal events, and thus to clearly specify the allowable parameters envelopes for the designers, constructors, and operators of current and future modular HTGRs. This review begins with an introduction on manufacturing methods, structure, and properties of nuclear graphite, including basic requirements that this specialty graphite type must satisfy for nuclear use. It continues with a chapter on environmental effects on nuclear graphite, where emphasis is placed less on irradiation and much more on oxidation phenomena, their safety implications, and the basic traits of chronic and acute oxidation by air (oxygen) and water (humidity, steam). Particular attention is placed on the three graphite grades of interest for this document (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA). A chapter on properties degradation induced by oxidation follows, with focus on density, dimensional, and mechanical properties changes. The next chapter is intended as a brief review of various approaches used for modeling of graphite oxidation behavior. It summarizes the progress of oxidation models, from the early attempts to complex computational approaches interfaced with specialized computer codes designed for nuclear reactor simulations. Last, a list is presented of knowledge gaps where more research is needed. A short summary concludes the review.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Office of Nuclear Verification FY 2023 Quarterly Report TSVT Q1

This project encompasses the continued development and training of a U.S. operational team, the Test Site Verification Team (TSVT), supporting verification of nuclear testing activities. TSVT builds on decades of U.S. nuclear testing history and nuclear explosion monitoring experience. The Team maintains readiness to deploy internationally on short notice to provide field-based support of verification of declared or undeclared nuclear testing and associated activities, as well as follow-on activities including monitoring and capability disablement and dismantlement, as established by negotiated agreement or treaty. The roles and structure of the TSVT are integrated with other NA-243 deployable verification teams and the interagency. FY23 TSVT activities focus on continued capability buildup within the team, including Team trainings and exercises with a focus on missions in confined spaces (e.g., tunnels, mines, other underground facilities), increased familiarity with foreign nuclear weapons testing programs, demonstration of Team capacity to deploy, train, and practice sustained OPSEC in non-western locations, establishment of sustainable storage and maintenance of equipment, specification and procurement of additional equipment to support field observations, further evolution of concepts of operation documents (CONOPs), and mission coordination with Headquarters and associated Stakeholders. Activities will culminate with a full-scale domestic team exercise at the end of FY23 focusing on underground activities signatures/observations and safety including advanced outdoor safety and familiarity in working around explosive test environments. In addition, we will be further articulating approaches and capacity relevant to the identification of nuclear tests, as well as monitoring of nuclear testing activities and/or dismantlement of nuclear test sites and anticipate developing additional equipment requests in support of this evolution. The TSVT Team Leads will also coordinate with its Senior Advisor, the TSVT Logistics and Readiness (L&R) Training Lead, and NNSA Headquarters to draft a five-year TSVT training and exercise plan, that strategically and incrementally builds capacity and expertise in key areas of significance for the continuum of nuclear and nuclear-related testing activities that fall within the team’s mission space.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydrogen Generation and Industrial Heat Opportunities for Nuclear Plants in the Gulf Coast

The United States (U.S.) nuclear-generation fleet stands as a critical national strategic asset, playing a pivotal role in achieving climate goals. Operating on light-water reactor (LWR) technologies, this fleet provides the largest share of U.S. carbon-free electrical generation, ensuring 24/7 clean-energy stability. With a proven track record of reliability while operating at high-capacity factors, consistently above 90%, the existing nuclear fleet serves as a cornerstone for sustainable energy. The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS), Flexible Plant Operations and Generation pathway addresses U.S. nuclear power plant (NPP) grid integration challenges in the face of evolving energy landscapes. Research at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) highlights the potential synergy between high-temperature steam-electrolysis (HTSE) technology and nuclear steam and electricity during periods of high renewable grid penetration. Large-scale nuclear-integrated hydrogen production through HTSE presents significant potential for decarbonizing such energy-intensive sectors as oil refining, petrochemicals, ammonia, and fertilizers. The strategic advantage lies in the nuclear sector’s capability to deliver clean electrical and/or steam output during periods of low demand. Nuclear-produced hydrogen—with its ability to provide high-purity clean H 2 well below the national standard of 1 kg of CO 2 per kg of H 2 —represents a breakthrough methodology. This emphasizes the crucial role NPPs can fill in addressing the increasing need for clean hydrogen, establishing them as essential contributors to decarbonization. This report specifically delves into hydrogen-generation opportunities from the U.S. Gulf Coast region. This study aims to assess NPP capabilities for hydrogen production and to identify practical nearby industrial and pipeline-operator off-takers for nuclear-integrated hydrogen production as well as to present some specific case-study analysis showing the conditions under which nuclear hydrogen production and sale can be profitable. Also considered in this report is preliminary analysis of nuclear-heat opportunities accessible near Waterford NPP via transportation of hypothetical steam pipelines and heat-exchange equipment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Impact of Nuclear Data Uncertainties on Calculated Spent Fuel Nuclide Inventories and Advanced NDA Instrument Response

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Next Generation Safeguards Initiative Spent Fuel (NGSI-SF) project is nearing the final phase of developing several advanced nondestructive assay (NDA) instruments designed to measure spent nuclear fuel assemblies for the purpose of improving nuclear safeguards. Current efforts are focusing on calibrating several of these instruments with spent fuel assemblies at two international spent fuel facilities. Modelling and simulation is expected to play an important role in predicting nuclide compositions, neutron and gamma source terms, and instrument responses in order to inform the instrument calibration procedures. As part of NGSI-SF project, this work was carried out to assess the impacts of uncertainties in the nuclear data used in the calculations of spent fuel content, radiation emissions and instrument responses. Nuclear data is an essential part of nuclear fuel burnup and decay codes and nuclear transport codes. Such codes are routinely used for analysis of spent fuel and NDA safeguards instruments. Hence, the uncertainties existing in the nuclear data used in these codes affect the accuracies of such analysis. In addition, nuclear data uncertainties represent the limiting (smallest) uncertainties that can be expected from nuclear code predictions, and therefore define the highest attainable accuracy of the NDA instrument. This work studies the impacts of nuclear data uncertainties on calculated spent fuel nuclide inventories and the associated NDA instrument response. Recently developed methods within the SCALE code system are applied in this study. The Californium Interrogation with Prompt Neutron instrument was selected to illustrate the impact of these uncertainties on NDA instrument response.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗