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Results for “Monte Carlo Modelling”

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At least 955 records · Page 53

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NASA NTRS1987

Wake shield

Progress on the modeling of the flow field around a wake shield using a recently obtained code based on the Monte Carlo method is discussed. The direct simulation Monte Carlo method is a method for solving the Boltzman Equation using an approximation to the collision integral term. The collision integrand is evaluated for randomly selected values of its arguments and the summation will approach the integral for large enough samples. The collision effects may be modeled for either hard sphere or various power law potentials. The convective side of the Boltzman equation is approximated over a time step using a simple trajectory calculation of molecules as they travel through the domain of interest.

Bannister, Tommy↗

NASA NTRS2021

Computational Inference of Vibratory System with Incomplete Modal Information Using Parallel, Interactive and Adaptive Markov Chains

Inverse analysis of vibratory system is an important subject in fault identification, model updating, and robust design and control. It is challenging subject because 1) the problem is oftentimes underdetermined while the measurements are limited and/or incomplete; 2) many combinations of parameters may yield results that are similar with respect to actual response measurements; and 3) uncertainties inevitably exist. The aim of this research is to leverage upon computational intelligence through statistical inference to facilitate an enhanced, probabilistic framework using incomplete modal response measurement. This new framework is built upon efficient inverse identification through optimization, whereas Bayesian inference is employed to account for the effect of uncertainties. To overcome the computational cost barrier, we adopt Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to characterize the target function/distribution. Instead of using single Markov chain in conventional Bayesian approach, we develop a new sampling theory with multiple parallel, interactive and adaptive Markov chains and incorporate it into Bayesian inference. This can harness the collective power of these Markov chains to realize the concurrent search of multiple local optima. The number of required Markov chains and their respective initial model parameters are automatically determined via Monte Carlo simulation-based sample pre-screening followed by K-means clustering analysis. These enhancements can effectively address the aforementioned challenges in finite element inverse analysis. The validity of this framework is systematically demonstrated through case studies.

K Zhou↗

NASA NTRS2002

Atomistic Modeling of Quaternary Alloys: Ti and Cu in NiAl

The change in site preference in NiAl(Ti,Cu) alloys with concentration is examined experimentally via ALCHEMI and theoretically using the Bozzolo-Ferrante-Smith (BFS) method for alloys. Results for the site occupancy of Ti and Cu additions as a function of concentration are determined experimentally for five alloys. These results are reproduced with large-scale BFS-based Monte Carlo atomistic simulations. The original set of five alloys is extended to 25 concentrations, which are modeled by means of the BFS method for alloys, showing in more detail the compositional range over which major changes in behavior occur. A simple but powerful approach based on the definition of atomic local environments also is introduced to describe energetically the interactions between the various elements and therefore to explain the observed behavior.

Bozzolo, Guillermo↗

NASA NTRS1987

The 3-D world modeling with updating capability based on combinatorial geometry

A 3-D world modeling technique using range data is discribed. Range data quantify the distances from the sensor focal plane to the object surface, i.e., the 3-D coordinates of discrete points on the object surface are known. The approach proposed herein for 3-D world modeling is based on the Combinatorial Geometry (CG) method which is widely used in Monte Carlo particle transport calculations. First, each measured point on the object surface is surrounded by a small sphere with a radius determined by the range to that point. Then, the 3-D shapes of the visible surfaces are obtained by taking the (Boolean) union of all the spheres. The result is an unambiguous representation of the object's boundary surfaces. The pre-learned partial knowledge of the environment can be also represented using the CG Method with a relatively small amount of data. Using the CG type of representation, distances in desired directions to boundary surfaces of various objects are efficiently calculated. This feature is particularly useful for continuously verifying the world model against the data provided by a range finder, and for integrating range data from successive locations of the robot during motion. The efficiency of the proposed approach is illustrated by simulations of a spherical robot in a 3-D room in the presence of moving obstacles and inadequate prelearned partial knowledge of the environment.

Goldstein, M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Forward Monte Carlo Computations of Polarized Microwave Radiation

Microwave radiative transfer computations continue to acquire greater importance as the emphasis in remote sensing shifts towards the understanding of microphysical properties of clouds and with these to better understand the non linear relation between rainfall rates and satellite-observed radiance. A first step toward realistic radiative simulations has been the introduction of techniques capable of treating 3-dimensional geometry being generated by ever more sophisticated cloud resolving models. To date, a series of numerical codes have been developed to treat spherical and randomly oriented axisymmetric particles. Backward and backward-forward Monte Carlo methods are, indeed, efficient in this field. These methods, however, cannot deal properly with oriented particles, which seem to play an important role in polarization signatures over stratiform precipitation. Moreover, beyond the polarization channel, the next generation of fully polarimetric radiometers challenges us to better understand the behavior of the last two Stokes parameters as well. In order to solve the vector radiative transfer equation, one-dimensional numerical models have been developed, These codes, unfortunately, consider the atmosphere as horizontally homogeneous with horizontally infinite plane parallel layers. The next development step for microwave radiative transfer codes must be fully polarized 3-D methods. Recently a 3-D polarized radiative transfer model based on the discrete ordinate method was presented. A forward MC code was developed that treats oriented nonspherical hydrometeors, but only for plane-parallel situations.

Battaglia, A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Microwave radiative transfer through horizontally inhomogeneous precipitating clouds

Recent advances in cloud microphysical models have led to realistic three-dimensional distributions of cloud constituents. Radiative transfer schemes can make use of this detailed knowledge in order to study the effects of horizontal as well as vertical inhomogeneities within clouds. This study looks specifically at the differences between three-dimensional radiative transfer results and those obtained by plane parallel, independent pixel approximations in the microwave spectrum. A three-dimensional discrete ordinates method as well as a backward Monte Carlo method are used to calculate realistic radiances emerging from the cloud. Analyses between these models and independent pixel approximations reveal that plane parallel approximations introduce two distinct types of errors. The first error is physical in nature and is related to the fact that plane parallel approximations do not allow energy to leak out of dense areas into surrouding areas. In general, it was found that these errors are quite small for emission-dominated frequencies (37 GHz and lower) and that physical errors are highly pronounced only at scattering frequencies (85 GHz) where large deviations and biases up to 8 K averaged over the entire cloud were found. The second error is more geometric in nature and is related to the fact that plane parallel approximations cannot accommodate physical boundaries in the horizontal dimension for off-nadir viewing angles. The geometric errors were comparable in magnitude for all frequencies. Their magnitude, however, depends on a number of factors including the scheme used to deal with the edge, the nature of the surface, and the viewing angle.

Roberti, Laura↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Failure Propagation Modeling Method for Launch Vehicle Safety Assessment

A method has been developed with the objective of making the potentially intractable problem of launch vehicle failure propagation somewhat less intractable. The approach taken is to essentially decouple the potentially multi-stepped propagation process into a series of bi-component transition probabilities. These probabilities are then used within a simple Monte Carlo simulation process through which the more complex behavior evolves. The process is described using a simple model problem and some discussion of enhancements for real-world applications is included. The role of the model within a broader analysis process for assessing abort effectiveness from launch vehicle failure modes is also described.

Lawrence, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1996

Computational Materials Research

Computational Materials aims to model and predict thermodynamic, mechanical, and transport properties of polymer matrix composites. This workshop, the second coordinated by NASA Langley, reports progress in measurements and modeling at a number of length scales: atomic, molecular, nano, and continuum. Assembled here are presentations on quantum calculations for force field development, molecular mechanics of interfaces, molecular weight effects on mechanical properties, molecular dynamics applied to poling of polymers for electrets, Monte Carlo simulation of aromatic thermoplastics, thermal pressure coefficients of liquids, ultrasonic elastic constants, group additivity predictions, bulk constitutive models, and viscoplasticity characterization.

Hinkley, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗

NASA NTRS1991

Effect of chemical kinetics uncertainties on calculated constituents in a tropospheric photochemical model

Random photochemical reaction rates are employed in a 1D photochemical model to examine uncertainties in tropospheric concentrations and thereby determine critical kinetic processes and significant correlations. Monte Carlo computations are used to simulate different chemical environments and their related imprecisions. The most critical processes are the primary photodissociation of O3 (which initiates ozone destruction) and NO2 (which initiates ozone formation), and the OH/methane reaction is significant. Several correlations and anticorrelations between species are discussed, and the ozone/transient OH correlation is examined in detail. One important result of the modeling is that estimates of global OH are generally about 25 percent uncertain, limiting the precision of photochemical models. Techniques for reducing the imprecision are discussed which emphasize the use of species and radical species measurements.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Air Mobility Conflict Resolution: Centralized or Decentralized?

This work begins to address one of the critical questions in the urban air mobility and small unmanned aircraft communities: Should the en-route conflict resolution function in an urban air mobility traffic system be centralized or decentralized? Three conflict resolution architectures are modeled and analyzed: centralized, decentralized with uniform rules, and decentralized with mixed rules. This study compares these architectures and investigates their robustness to communication and state information errors in terms of safety and efficiency metrics. Experiments are conducted using a high-fidelity Monte Carlo traffic simulator and a generic set of traffic scenarios with increasing traffic density. When no errors were modeled, the centralized architecture marginally outperformed the decentralized architecture. However, performance of the centralized architecture was found to be adversely affected by the modeled input errors to a greater degree than was the decentralized architecture. Performance of the centralized architecture also was degraded significantly by the modeled transmission errors of the centralized resolution maneuvers. In the decentralized architecture, uniform rules outperformed mixed rules because, in the mixed rules case, system safety performance was undermined and dominated by the poor performers.

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) traffic system↗

NASA NTRS2014

Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

descent and landing↗

NASA NTRS2017

Tortuosity Computations of Porous Materials using the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Low-density carbon fiber preforms, used as thermal protection systems (TPS) materials for planetary entry systems, have permeable, highly porous microstructures consisting of interlaced fibers. Internal gas transport in TPS is important in modeling the penetration of hot boundary-layer gases and the in-depth transport of pyrolysis and ablation products. The gas effective diffusion coefficient of a porous material must be known before the gas transport can be modeled in material response solvers; however, there are very little available data for rigid fibrous insulators used in heritage TPS.The tortuosity factor, which reflects the efficiency of the percolation paths, can be computed from the effective diffusion coefficient of a gas inside a porous material and is based on the micro-structure of the material. It is well known, that the tortuosity factor is a strong function of the Knudsen number. Due to the small characteristic scales of porous media used in TPS applications (typical pore size of the order of 50 micron), the transport of gases can occur in the rarefied and transitional regimes, at Knudsen numbers above 1. A proper way to model the gas dynamics at these conditions consists in solving the Boltzmann equation using particle-based methods that account for movement and collisions of atoms and molecules.In this work we adopt, for the first time, the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method to compute the tortuosity factor of fibrous media in the rarefied regime. To enable realistic simulations of the actual transport of gases in the porous medium, digitized computational grids are obtained from X-ray micro-tomography imaging of real TPS materials. The SPARTA DSMC solver is used for simulations. Effective diffusion coefficients and tortuosity factors are obtained by computing the mean-square displacement of diffusing particles.We first apply the method to compute the tortuosity factors as a function of the Knudsen number for computationally designed materials such as random cylindrical fibers and packed bed of spheres with prescribed porosity. Results are compared to literature values obtained using random walk methods in the rarefied and transitional regime and a finite-volume method for the continuum regime. We then compute tortuosity factors for a real carbon fiber material with a transverse isotropic structure (FiberForm), quantifying differences between through-thickness and in-plain tortuosities at various Knudsen regimes.

Tortuosity↗

NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Simulation Probabalistic Risk Assessment Model for an Enceladus Sample Return Mission

Enceladus, a moon of Saturn, has geyser-like jets that spray plumes of material into orbit. These jets could enable a free-flying spacecraft to collect samples and return them to Earth for study to determine if they contain the building blocks of life. The Office of Planetary Protection at NASA requires containment of any unsterilized samples and prohibits destructive impact of the spacecraft upon return to Earth, with a sample release probability of less than 1 in 1,000,000 as a recommended goal. This paper describes a probabilistic risk assessment model that uses dynamic simulation techniques to capture the physics-based, time- and state-dependent interactions between the sample return system and the environment, which drive the risk of sample release. The dynamic approach uses a Monte Carlo-style simulation to integrate the many phases and sources of risk for a sample return mission. The model is used to assess the achievability of the planetary protection reliability goal. This is accomplished by performing sensitivity studies assessing the impact of modeling assumptions to identify where uncertainties drive the risk. These results, in turn, are used to examine the feasibility of meeting key design and performance parameters that are needed to achieve the reliability goal for a given architecture with existing technologies.

Dynamic Simulation↗

NASA NTRS1991

ADP study of gamma-ray bursts

This grant supported study of cyclotron scattering lines in the spectra of gamma-ray bursts through analysis of Ginga and HEAO-1 archival data, and modeling of the results in terms of radiation transfer calculations of cyclotron scattering in a strong magnetic field. A Monte Carlo radiation transfer code with which we are able to calculate the expected properties of cyclotron scattering lines in the spectra of gamma-ray bursts was developed. The extensive software necessary in order to carry out fits of these model spectra to gamma-ray burst spectral data, including folding of the model spectra through the detector response functions was also developed. Fits to Ginga satellite data on burst GB880205 were completed and fits to Ginga satellite data on burst GB870303 are being carried out. These fits have allowed us to test our software, as well as to garner new scientific results. This work has demonstrated that cyclotron resonant scattering successfully accounts for the locations, strengths, and widths of the observed line features in GB870303 and GB880205. The success of the model provides compelling evidence that these gamma-ray bursts come from strongly magnetic neutron stars and are galactic in origin, resolving longstanding controversies about the nature and distance of the burst sources. These results were reported in two papers which are in press in the proceedings of the Taos Workshop on Gamma-Ray Bursts, and in a paper submitted for publication.

Lamb, Don Q.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Simulation of Tip-Sample Interaction in the Atomic Force Microscope

Recent simulations of the interaction between planar surfaces and model Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) tips have suggested that there are conditions under which the tip may become unstable and 'avalanche' toward the sample surface. Here we investigate via computer simulation the stability of a variety of model AFM tip configurations with respect to the avalanche transition for a number of fcc metals. We perform Monte-Carlo simulations at room temperature using the Equivalent Crystal Theory (ECT) of Smith and Banerjea. Results are compared with recent experimental results as well as with our earlier work on the avalanche of parallel planar surfaces. Our results on a model single-atom tip are in excellent agreement with recent experiments on tunneling through mechanically-controlled break junctions.

Good, Brian S.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Component-Level Model of Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B)

Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) is being employed in numerous peer-to-peer initiatives attempting to expand the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS) or enable mixed operations of manned and unmanned vehicles. Safety assessments of these initiatives rely, in part, on modeling the accuracy of ADS-B in reporting the position and direction of an ownship and surrounding traffic. Frequently, these initiatives utilize a position uncertainty model that applies a reported ADS-B estimation position uncertainty (EPU) value to a Rayleigh distribution and uses a Gauss-Markov random walk to add error to the ADS-B output of a vehicle. This model of ADS-B state error is easy to implement and apply to numerous problems. However, it has a couple of draw-backs. First, the ADS-B state errors are equally probable in all directions. This is a good assumption in situations where aircraft maneuvering is not constrained. However, in situations where the aircraft maneuvering is constrained such as landing, the error distribution is likely to exhibit directionality and the non-directional model may skew results especially when assessing very low probabilities (e.g., 10(exp -9)) of catastrophic encounters. Second, the model does not account for processing latency in the receiving aircraft. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) recently examined the feasibility of decreasing the spacing of aircraft on parallel approaches to runways separated by as little as 700 feet. For Monte-Carlo analysis using a high-fidelity simulation of a large transport, LaRC started with a Gauss-Markov model of ADS-B error but then developed a component level model of ADS-B error to increase the fidelity of results.

Madden, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Expendable Launch Vehicle Studies

Analytical support studies of expendable launch vehicles concentrates on the stability of the dynamics during launch especially during or near the region of maximum dynamic pressure. The in-plane linearized dynamic equations of a generic launch vehicle with multiple flexible bending and fuel sloshing modes are developed. The design of a robust LQR controller based on the reduced order system is accomplished using the parameter perturbation technique. The ELV modeling and analysis team has spent the past three years working on the theoretical development and application of sensitivity analysis to solve eigenvalue problems associated with structural dynamics. Specific application areas include stochastic vibrations, viscously damped vibrations and nonlinear dynamics. In stochastic linear vibrations, sensitivity analysis methods have been developed which determined the expectation and variance of the response for given probability density functions of various stochastic parameters. Examples worked include beam vibrations with up to six stochastic parameters; and the eigensensitivity results differ little from those obtained, with much effect, from Monte Carlo techniques. For viscously damped vibrations, eigensensitivity analysis has given excellent results for homogeneous beams, modeled by either quadratic or quartic eigenvalue equations. Specific applications include Kevin and Maxwell-type viscoelastic beams.

Bainum, P. M.↗