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At least 955 records · Page 53

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Analysis of Flash Lidar Field Test Data for Safe Lunar Landing

In May 2008, the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) Project conducted a helicopter field test of a commercial flash lidar to assess its applicability to safe lunar landing. The helicopter flew several flights, which covered a variety of slant ranges and viewing angles, over man-made and natural lunar-like terrains. The collected data were analyzed to assess the performance of the sensor and the performance of two algorithms: Hazard Detection (HD) and Hazard Relative Navigation (HRN). The collected flash lidar data were also used to validate a high fidelity flash lidar software model used in ALHAT Monte Carlo simulations. The field test results, combined with prior simulation results, advanced the technology readiness level of the HD algorithm to TRL 5 and the HRN algorithm to TRL 4.

hazard relative navigation↗

Early Results from the Advanced Radiation Protection Thick GCR Shielding Project

The Advanced Radiation Protection Thick Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Shielding Project leverages experimental and modeling approaches to validate a predicted minimum in the radiation exposure versus shielding depth curve. Preliminary results of space radiation models indicate that a minimum in the dose equivalent versus aluminum shielding thickness may exist in the 20-30 g/cm2 region. For greater shield thickness, dose equivalent increases due to secondary neutron and light particle production. This result goes against the long held belief in the space radiation shielding community that increasing shielding thickness will decrease risk to crew health. A comprehensive modeling effort was undertaken to verify the preliminary modeling results using multiple Monte Carlo and deterministic space radiation transport codes. These results verified the preliminary findings of a minimum and helped drive the design of the experimental component of the project. In first-of-their-kind experiments performed at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory, neutrons and light ions were measured between large thicknesses of aluminum shielding. Both an upstream and a downstream shield were incorporated into the experiment to represent the radiation environment inside a spacecraft. These measurements are used to validate the Monte Carlo codes and derive uncertainty distributions for exposure estimates behind thick shielding similar to that provided by spacecraft on a Mars mission. Preliminary results for all aspects of the project will be presented.

Norman, Ryan B.↗

Uncertainty in Heart Rate Complexity Metrics Caused by R-Peak Perturbations

Heart rate complexity (HRC) is a proven metric for gaining insight into human stress and physiological deterioration. To calculate HRC, the detection of the exact instance of when the heart beats, the R-peak, is necessary. Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals can often be corrupted by environmental noise (e.g., from electromagnetic interference, movement artifacts), which can potentially alter the HRC measurement, producing erroneous inputs which feed into decision support models. Current literature has only investigated how HRC is affected by noise when R-peak detection errors occur (false positives and false negatives). However, the numerical methods used to calculate HRC are also sensitive to the specific location of the fiducial point of the R-peak. This raises many questions regarding how this fiducial point is altered by noise, the resulting impact on the measured HRC, and how we can account for noisy HRC measures as inputs into our decision models. This work uses Monte Carlo simulations to systematically add white and pink noise at different permutations of signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs), time segments, sampling rates, and HRC measurements to characterize the influence of noise on the HRC measure by altering the fiducial point of the R-peak. Using the generated information from these simulations provides improved decision processes for system design which address key concerns such as permutation entropy being a more precise, reliable, less biased, and more sensitive measurement for HRC than sample and approximate entropy.

Napoli, Nicholas J.↗

Using FMECA to Support Maintainability and FRACA

Presentation to support a Summit/TIM with various Stakeholders (Ground and Flight) to perform a GAP analysis associated with ground and spacecraft maintenance, maintainability, and availability activities in order to identify missing Agency planning and guidance materials.

Modelling↗

Machine Learning Based Path Planning for Improved Rover Navigation

Enhanced AutoNav (ENav), the baseline surface navigation software for NASA’s Perseverance rover, sorts a list of candidate paths for the rover to traverse, then uses the Approximate Clearance Evaluation (ACE) algorithm to evaluate whether the most highly ranked paths are safe. ACE is crucial for maintaining the safety of the rover, but is computationally expensive. If the most promising candidates in the list of paths are all found to be infeasible, ENav must continue to search the list and run time-consuming ACE evaluations until a feasible path is found. In this paper, we present two heuristics that, given a terrain heightmap around the rover, produce cost estimates that more effectively rank the candidate paths before ACE evaluation. The first heuristic uses Sobel operators and convolution to incorporate the cost of traversing high-gradient terrain. The second heuristic uses a machine learning (ML) model to predict areas that will be deemed untraversable by ACE. We used physics simulations to collect training data for the ML model and to run Monte Carlo trials to quantify navigation performance across a variety of terrains with various slopes and rock distributions. Compared to ENav's baseline performance, integrating the heuristics can lead to a significant reduction in ACE evaluations and average computation time per planning cycle, increase path efficiency, and maintain or improve the rate of successful traverses. This strategy of targeting specific bottlenecks with ML while maintaining the original ACE safety checks provides an example of how ML can be infused into planetary science missions and other safety-critical software.

Yue, Yisong↗

A Predictive Transient Model of the TREAT-SIRIUS Experiments

To support experiments modeling and transient analysis of the NASA-sponsored SIRIUS experiments in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT), an innovative predictive transient model has been developed to simulate various transient experiments. The developed model is based on a new approach that utilizes steady-state Monte Carlo calculations along with a surrogate model based on polynomial regression to determine the core reactivity. The reactivity is supplied to an exact point kinetics model that determines the reactor power, and it is coupled to an adiabatic feedback model to determine the fuel average temperature. In this work, the newly developed model is introduced along with validation test results considering SIRIUS-1 experiments at different power levels. The initial test results show a very good agreement with experimental data at different power levels, which indicates that the model can be used to predict the power of other transient tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sign-free determinant quantum Monte Carlo study of excitonic density orders in a two-orbital Hubbard-Kanamori model

While excitonic instabilities in multiorbital systems recently have come under scrutiny in a variety of transition-metal compounds, understanding emergence of these instabilities from strong electronic interactions has remained a challenge. In this work, we present a sign-problem-free determinant quantum Monte Carlo study of excitonic density orders in a half-filled two-orbital Hubbard-Kanamori model with broken orbital degeneracy, which accounts for the role of Hund's coupling in transition-metal compounds. For strong inverted (negative) Hund's exchange, we find numerical evidence for the emergence of excitonic density order, with competition between anti-ferro-orbital order and Q = (π, π) excitonic density order as a function of orbital splitting and Hund's coupling. While inverted Hund's coupling stabilizes a spin-singlet excitonic density phase for weak orbital splitting, positive Hund's coupling favors a spin-triplet excitonic density phase.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Charge regulation effects on colloidal mixture nanoparticles

Changes in pH within a system containing dissociable sites affect the protonation and deprotonation of these groups, thereby influencing their physical properties. In response, the system modifies their surface charge, affecting electrostatic interactions, aggregation, stability, and structural behavior. Although the pH can be tuned in experiments, it is difficult to model this phenomenon using simulations or theoretical approaches. Here, we perform hybrid Monte Carlo-molecular dynamics simulations to model charge regulation effects in an equimolar colloidal charged system. We compare charge regulation effects with those of a system in which the charges of colloidal nanoparticles are not dissociable. The comparison between the two cases modifies the phase diagram, and it changes the volume fraction where a percolation network of nanoparticles is found. Charge regulation is found to destroy network formation, as the charge in the nanoparticles is modified because of the cooperativity dependency of the degree of charge dissociation sites among the nanoparticles favoring cluster formation. Furthermore, our work suggests that the ionic and/or electronic conductivity in functionalized nanoparticles can be modified by changing pH values. It also guides the experimental design of oppositely charged nanoparticles as inks for 3D printing processes.

Classical statistical mechanics↗

Refined interpretation of electron temperature response to neutral beam injection at DIII-D

Accurate particle and power deposition profiles of neutral beam injection (NBI) are essential to transport studies, and that information is usually acquired through Monte Carlo simulations with a given collisional model. The deposition process of the energetic beam particles leads to the informative electron temperature (T e ) evolution trajectory, which can be captured by electron cyclotron emission (ECE) system due to its good spatial and temporal resolution. Previously, some work has been done to interpret the T e responses to the pulsed NBI as a linear heating source with Fourier-based techniques, although that approach fell short when the fast ion slowing-down time becomes significant (~100 ms). It has been observed in DIII-D that the modulated NBI pulses (10–50 Hz) reduce local core T e values ~0.1 keV through cold electron dilution in high-T e (>2 keV) plasmas alongside accumulative heating. Here, a novel approach to interpret the T e response to NBI was developed by linearizing and modeling the detailed T e evolution trajectory using coherently averaged ECE data based on the different time scales of the terms in the local power and particle balance equations. The technique does not require absolute calibrations of ECE and is independent of collisional models. The resulting beam deposition profiles show good consistency and reasonable agreement with Monte Carlo calculations based on the atomic data from the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure (ADAS). Local electron density response measured by Thomson scattering (TS) also suggests the same features when the beam pulse is large enough for that diagnostic to resolve. The remaining discrepancies are also discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Monte Carlo Simulation of Endlinking Oligomers

This report describes initial efforts to model the endlinking reaction of phenylethynyl-terminated oligomers. Several different molecular weights were simulated using the Bond Fluctuation Monte Carlo technique on a 20 x 20 x 20 unit lattice with periodic boundary conditions. After a monodisperse "melt" was equilibrated, chain ends were linked whenever they came within the allowed bond distance. Ends remained reactive throughout, so that multiple links were permitted. Even under these very liberal crosslinking assumptions, geometrical factors limited the degree of crosslinking. Average crosslink functionalities were 2.3 to 2.6; surprisingly, they did not depend strongly on the chain length. These results agreed well with the degrees of crosslinking inferred from experiment in a cured phenylethynyl-terminated polyimide oligomer.

Hinkley, Jeffrey A.↗

Efficient Monte Carlo event generation for neutrino-nucleus exclusive cross sections

Modern neutrino-nucleus cross section computations need to incorporate sophisticated nuclear models to achieve greater predictive precision. However, the computational complexity of these advanced models often limits their practicality for experimental analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a new Monte Carlo method utilizing normalizing flows to generate surrogate cross sections that closely approximate those of the original model while significantly reducing computational overhead. As a case study, we built a Monte Carlo event generator for the neutrino-nucleus cross section model developed by the Ghent group. This model employs a Hartree-Fock procedure to establish a quantum mechanical framework in which both the bound and scattering nucleon states are solutions to the mean-field nuclear potential. The surrogate cross sections generated by our method demonstrate excellent accuracy with a relative effective sample size of more than 98.4%, providing a computationally efficient alternative to traditional Monte Carlo sampling methods for differential cross sections.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Thermochemical Ablation Analysis of the Orion Heatshield

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle will one day carry astronauts to the Moon and beyond, and Orion's heatshield is a critical component in ensuring their safe return to Earth. The Orion heatshield is the structural component responsible for absorbing the intense heating environment caused by re-entry to Earth's atmosphere. The heatshield is primarily composed of Avcoat, an ablative material that is consumed during the re-entry process. Ablation is primarily characterized by two processes: pyrolysis and recession. The decomposition of in-depth virgin material is known as pyrolysis. Recession occurs when the exposed surface of the heatshield reacts with the surrounding flow. The Orion heatshield design was changed from an individually filled Avcoat honeycomb to a molded block Avcoat design. The molded block Avcoat heatshield relies on an adhesive bond to keep it attached to the capsule. In some locations on the heatshield, the integrity of the adhesive bond cannot be verified. For these locations, a mechanical retention device was proposed. Avcoat ablation was modelled in CHAR and the in-depth virgin material temperatures were used in a Thermal Desktop model of the mechanical retention device. The retention device was analyzed and shown to cause a large increase in the maximum bondline temperature. In order to study the impact of individual ablation modelling parameters on the heatshield sizing process, a Monte Carlo simulation of the sizing process was proposed. The simulation will give the sensitivity of the ablation model to each of its input parameters. As part of the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on material properties were required for Avcoat. Several properties were difficult to acquire uncertainties for: the pyrolysis gas enthalpy, non-dimensional mass loss rate (B´c), and Arrhenius equation parameters. Variability in the elemental composition of Avcoat was used as the basis for determining the statistical uncertainty in pyrolysis gas enthalpy and B´c. A MATLAB program was developed to allow for faster, more accurate and automated computation of Arrhenius reaction parameters. These parameters are required for a material model to be used in the CHAR ablation analysis program. This MATLAB program, along with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data, was used to generate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for Avcoat. In addition, the TGA fitting program was developed to provide Arrhenius parameters for the ablation model of the gap filler material, RTV silicone.

Sixel, William↗

Methods and Usability Enhancements in Shift for Non-LWR Applications

Several development and analysis tasks were undertaken in FY21 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program to enhance modeling of non light–water reactors (LWRs) with Shift. Specifically, these efforts targeted enhancements for tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel modeling. A new Shift user interface was developed that allows for much better usability and ease of modeling for non-LWR problems and TRISO fuel. Performance studies were conducted using an HTR-10 fuel pebble model by comparing different geometry packages in Shift, KENO-VI, and Serpent. These studies showed that the new geometry package in Shift performs well compared to Serpent for TRISO fuel modeling with consistent tracking options between both packages. The studies also identified the most critical areas of improvement for more efficiently performing Monte Carlo transport on TRISO fuel models with Shift. Tally calculations in Shift were optimized for non-LWR cross section generation and depletion calculations, and areas for further optimization and accuracy improvements were identified. Finally, initial collaboration efforts were formed between Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to use Shift for Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle support.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Galactic gamma-ray emission from radio pulsars

Both the polar cap and outer gap models of pulsar gammar-ray emission are used to determine the pulsars' contribution to the Galactic gamma-ray emission. A Monte Carlo technique is used to model the Galactic pulsar population, and their contribution to the Galactic gamma-ray emission is found to depend strongly upon their birth properties, which remain controversial. For any model, the majority of this emission arises from pulsars currently known as radio pulsars. This result holds for both the polar cap, and the outer gap models, and suggests that the pulsar contribution to the Galactic gamma-ray emission might be much higher than previous calculations have suggested. It is proposed that the milliarcsecond pulsars also contribute significantly to Galactic gamma-ray emission.

Bailes, M.↗

Determination of the characteristic magnetic pre-sheath length at divertor surfaces using micro-engineered targets on DiMES at DIII-D

The magnetic pre-sheath (MPS) width, L MPS , is a critical parameter to define the sheath potential, which controls the ion trajectory of low-Z species (D, T, He, and C), as well as the prompt re-deposition of high-Z species. In this work, to determine L MPS , we fabricated micro-trenches (30×30×4 µm) via focused ion beam (FIB) milling on a silicon surface and exposed them to L-mode deuterium plasmas in DIII-D via the Divertor Material Evaluation System (DiMES) removable sample exposure probe. The areal distribution of impurity depositions, mainly consisting of carbon, was measured by energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) to reveal the deuterium ion shadowing effect on the trench floors. The carbon deposition profiles showed that the erosion was maximized for the azimuthal direction of φ = -40° (referenced to the toroidal magnetic field direction) as well as the polar angle of θ = 80°. A Monte Carlo equation-of-motion model, based on a collisionless MPS, was used to calculate the azimuthal and polar deuterium ion angle distributions (IADs) for a range of L MPS = k × ρ i , where ρ i is the ion gyro radius and k = 0.5-4. Then, gross erosion profiles were calculated by a Monte Carlo micro-patterning and roughness (MPR) code for ion sputtering using as input the calculated azimuthal and polar IADs for each value of k . Good agreement with the experimental C deposition profiles was obtained for the case k = 2.5-3.5. This result is consistent with a previous kinetic modeling prediction of k ~ 3, as well as previous analytical investigations that predicted the L MPS to be several ion gyro radii. A validation of theoretical sheath models supports its applicability to ITER and pilot plant divertors to successfully predict plasma-materials interactions.

Erosion↗