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At least 955 records · Page 53

The Impact of Model Resolution on the Southern Hemisphere in Community Climate System Model Version 4 Idealized Climate Simulations

Model resolution plays a large role in accurately simulating the Southern Hemisphere circulation in both the ocean and atmosphere. Resolving the mesoscale field is important as it has been shown to have a significant impact on the large-scale climate in eddy-rich regions, which are regions of large CO2 absorption. The presence of ocean and atmospheric mesoscale features can affect sea surface temperatures, the strength and location of storm tracks, and many other air-sea processes. Additionally, with an improvement in resolution, the eddy kinetic energy in the ocean can be expected to change considerably. The significance model resolution has on the Southern Hemisphere is examined using the Community Climate System Model, Version 4, eddy-parameterizing and eddy-resolving simulations. The CO2 concentrations and ozone levels are specified independently to better understand how the mesoscale field responds to extreme changes in external forcing and the resulting climate impacts. Overall, in the eddy-parameterizing simulations, the ozone forcing is found to be more important than the changes in CO2 concentrations. However, in the case of the eddy-resolving simulations, the CO2 concentrations are found to be more dominant, especially in eddy-rich regions. These results demonstrate the need for an increase in model resolution for climate prediction.

Daher, Houraa (ORCID:0000000200177346)↗

Validation of turbulence intensity as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model off the US northeast coast

We report turbulence intensity (TI) is often used to quantify the strength of turbulence in wind energy applications and serves as the basis of standards in wind turbine design. Thus, accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in TI should lead to improved predictions of power production. Nevertheless, turbulence measurements over the ocean are far less prevalent than over land due to challenges in instrumental deployment, maintenance, and operation. Atmospheric models such as mesoscale (weather prediction) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models are commonly used in the wind energy industry to assess the spatial variability of a given site. However, the TI derivation from atmospheric models has not been well examined. An algorithm is proposed in this study to realize online calculation of TI in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated TI is divided into two components depending on scale, including sub-grid (parameterized based on turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)) and grid resolved. The sensitivity of sea surface temperature (SST) on simulated TI is also tested. An assessment is performed by using observations collected during a field campaign conducted from February to June 2020 near the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory. Results show that while simulated TKE is generally smaller than the lidar-observed value, wind speed bias is usually small. Overall, this leads to a slight underestimation in sub-grid-scale estimated TI. Improved SST representation subsequently reduces model biases in atmospheric stability as well as wind speed and sub-grid TI near the hub height. Large TI events in conjunction with mesoscale weather systems observed during the studied period pose a challenge to accurately estimating TI from models. Due to notable uncertainty in accurately simulating those events, this suggests summing up sub-grid and resolved TI may not be an ideal solution. Efforts in further improving skills in simulating mesoscale flow and cloud systems are necessary as the next steps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Use of satellites to determine optimum locations for solar power stations

Ground measurements of solar radiation are too sparse to determine important mesoscale differences that can be of major significance in solar power station locations. Cloud images in the visual spectrum from the SMS/GOES geostationary satellites are used to determine the hourly distribution of sunshine on a mesoscale in the continental United States excluding Alaska. Cloud coverage and density as a function of time of day and season are considered through the use of digital data processing techniques. Low density cirrus clouds are less detrimental to solar energy collection than other types; and clouds in the morning and evening are less detrimental than those during midday hours of maximum insolation. The seasonal geographic distributions of sunshine are converted to Langleys of solar radiation received at the earth's surface through the use of transform equations developed from long-term measurements of these two parameters at 18 widely distributed stations. The high correlation between measurements of sunshine and radiation makes this possible. The output product will be maps showing the geographic distribution of total solar radiation on the mesoscale which is received at the earth's surface during each season.

Hiser, H. W.↗

An equivalent potential vorticity theory applied to the analysis and prediction of severe storm dynamics

Potential vorticity theory is developed in a description of an equivalent potential temperature topography, and a new theory suited to the description of scale interaction is elaborated. Macroscale triggering of ageostrophic flow fields at the mesoscale, in turn leading to release of convective instability along narrow zones at the microscale, is examined. Correlation of appreciable decrease in potential vorticity with such phenomena as cumulonimbi, tornados, and duststorms is examined. The relevance of a multiscale energy-momentum cascade in numerical prediction of severe mesoscale and microscale phenomena from radiosonde data is reviewed. Hypotheses for mesoscale dynamics are constructed.

Paine, D. A.↗

Studies of satellite support to weather modification in the western US region

The applications of meteorological satellite data to both summer and winter weather modification programs are addressed. Appraisals of the capability of satellites to assess seedability, to provide real-time operational support, and to assist in the post-experiment analysis of a seeding experiment led to the incorporation of satellite observing systems as a major component in the Bureau of Reclamations weather modification activities. Satellite observations are an integral part of the South Park Area cumulus experiment (SPACE) which aims to formulate a quantitative hypothesis for enhancing precipitation from orographically induced summertime mesoscale convective systems (orogenic mesoscale systems). Progress is reported in using satellite observations to assist in classifying the important mesoscale systems, and in defining their frequency and coverage, and potential area of effect. Satellite studies of severe storms are also covered.

Cotton, W. R.↗

Air turbulence measurements in and below cumulus congestus over mountainous terrain

Consideration is given to the definition and application to air turbulence measurements over mountainous terrain of the ensemble averaging operator in the second-order turbulent transfer model of moist, precipitating mesoscale systems developed by Manton and Cotton (1977) as a first step in the formulation of a unified mesoscale turbulence theory. The use of running means to smooth out point-to-point data variability is proposed as a means of avoiding certain of the problems associated with ensemble averaging, and is applied to airborne velocity measurements in cumulus congestus over South Park, Colorado. It is found that, in general, vertical transport of any cloud parameter will be primarily eddy transport in the mesoscale modeling of cloud processes.

Cotton, W. R.↗

Regional eddy vorticity transport and the equilibrium vorticity budgets of a numerical model ocean circulation

A mean vorticity budget analysis is presented of Holland's (1978) numerical ocean general circulation experiment. The stable budgets are compared with classical circulation theory to emphasize the ways in which the mesoscale motions of the model alter (or leave unaltered) classical vorticity balances. The basinwide meridional transports of vorticity by the mean flow and by the mesoscale flow in the mean are evaluated to establish the role(s) of the mesoscale in the larger scale equilibrium vorticity transports. The vorticity equation for this model fluid system is presented and the budget analysis method is described. Vorticity budgets over the selected regions and on a larger scale are given, and a summary of budget results is provided along with remarks about the utility of this type of analysis.

Harrison, D. E.↗

Effects of diabatic heating on the ageostrophic circulation of an upper tropospheric jet streak

Interaction between the mass circulation within a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) and a direct mass circulation in the entrance region of an upper tropospheric polar jet streak was examined within the isentropic structure to investigate mechanisms responsible for linking these two scales of motion. The results establish that latent heating in the MCC modifies the direct mass circulation in the jet streak entrance region through the diabatically induced components of ageostrophic motion analyzed within isentropic coordinates. Within the strong mesoscale mass circulation of each MCC, strong horizontal mass flux convergence into the MCC at low levels is balanced by strong horizontal mass flux divergence away from the convergence at upper levels. Locations of large diabatic heating rates correspond well to the MCC position for each case; diabatic heating forces the upward vertical branch for the mesoscale mass circulation.

Keyser, D. A.↗

VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) simulation experiment for a severe storm environment

Radiance fields were simulated for prethunderstorm environments in Oklahoma to demonstrate three points: (1) significant moisture gradients can be seen directly in images of the VISSIR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) channels; (2) temperature and moisture profiles can be retrieved from VAS radiances with sufficient accuracy to be useful for mesoscale analysis of a severe storm environment; and (3) the quality of VAS mesoscale soundings improves with conditioning by local weather statistics. The results represent the optimum retrievability of mesoscale information from VAS radiance without the use of ancillary data. The simulations suggest that VAS data will yield the best soundings when a human being classifies the scene, picks relatively clear areas for retrieval, and applies a "local" statistical data base to resolve the ambiguities of satellite observations in favor of the most probable atmospheric structure.

Chesters, D.↗

Tornadoes and downbursts in the context of generalized planetary scales

In order to cover a wide range of horizontal dimensions of airflow, the paper proposes a series of five scales, maso, meso, miso (to be read as my-so), moso and muso arranged in the order of the vowels, A, E, I, O, U. The dimensions decrease by two orders of magnitude per scale, beginning with the planet's equator length chosen to be the maximum dimension of masoscale for each planet. Mesoscale highs and lows were described on the basis of mesoanalyses, while sub-mesoscale disturbances were depicted by cataloging over 20,000 photographs of wind effects taken from low-flying aircraft during the past 15 years. Various motion thus classified into these scales led to a conclusion that extreme winds induced by thunderstorms are associated with misoscale and mososcale airflow spawned by the parent, mesoscale disturbances.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Oceanic eddy variability measured by GEOS 3 altimeter crossover differences

Eddy statistics of sea height variations associated with dynamic ocean currents, gathered by GEOS 3 altimetry (25 cm), are discussed. Time variable flow is noted to be measureable using altimeter height and orbit information by means of three techniques: collinear tracks, where rms variability can be determined for mesoscale phenomena measured along parallel tracks; mean surfaces, using a 3-dimensional mapping of the sea surface for an accurate representation of the surface undulations; and crossover differences, such as between data tracks from GEOS and Seasat which have reduced ephemeris error over scales of a few thousand km. Mesoscale energetics have been found suitable for tracing meandering ocean currents by the crossover method. Possible sources of error are considered, including altimeter noise, orbit error, short wavelength continental shelf tides, etc., and it is determined that observations of mesoscale sea height appear to be limited only by uncertainties in the altimetry, which for Seasat was 5 cm over 60% of the world's oceans.

Cheney, R. E.↗

Use of the VAS for analysis of a prethunderstorm environment

The information content of the VAS radiances can be converted to meteorological parameters useful for analyzing a severe weather environment. The method by which the VAS variances are converted to vertical profiles of temperature, dewpoints, and equivalent potential temperature involves a basic regression technique using the most local radiosonde data available for establishing a correlation matrix. The results indicate that mesoscale features apparent within images of the radiances can be converted to usable temperature and moisture fields using regression when surface temperature and dewpoint observations are included within the total data base. In addition, results indicate that surface data are very important for better defining lower tropospheric structure that the VAS radiances alone cannot properly resolve. Analyses of these retrievals distinctly show mesoscale structure in the temperature and moisture fields derived with VAS radiances collected every 3 hours, and 0000 GMT. The retrievals capture the moisture structure. More important, convective instability is clearly detected immediately before the onset of convection. The results indicate that the VAS is capable of providing valuable mesoscale information suitable for analyzing a preconvective environment that is generally clear.

Uccellini, L. W.↗

VAS temperature retrievals for NASA special network observations of 6 March 1982

VAS retrieval capability was studied. A mesoscale event consisting of a rapidly moving temperature perturbation with strong horizontal wind shear but shallow vertical extent occurred over Texas. The mesoscale event passed through the special radiosonde network and was documented with three hourly measurements. The event occurred behind a cold frontal cloud band during clear conditions. The event was accompanied by large skin temperature changes as the day progressed. This combination allows the testing of two important aspects of the retrieval algorithms with minimal cloud contamination and good ground truth. The first aspect concerns the horizontal and vertical resolving power of the retrievals and the second aspect concerns sensitivity to the boundary term. The NASA special network radiosonde is proven to be useful. It is demonstrated that: the VAS is capable, of delineating a mesoscale, normal retrieval procedure has the deficiency of oversmoothing, but this can be corrected, to document first quess dependence, and a superior data set to evolve better techniques for treating the surface boundary problem.

Hayden, C. M.↗

AVE/VAS experiment: Synoptic summary and preliminary results

The AVE/VAS ground truth field experiment was conducted during the Spring of 1982 severe storms and weather research program. The experiment consisted of acquiring correlative ground truth measurements of rawinsonde data, corresponding to the time and space resolutions of VAS sounding data. The objectives of the AVE/VAS experiment are: (1) to acquire four dimensional data sets of the actual atmospheric structure down to the mesoscale; (2) to provide measurements for quantitative comparisons between ground based and VAS-derived atmospheric parameters; (3) to evaluate the impact of VAS data on diagnostic analysis of structural features and dynamical processes important to the development of mesoscale phenomena; (4) to evaluate the impact of VAS data on numerical model simulations, nowcasting, and other mesoscale forecasting systems.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗

Soil temperature extrema recovery rates after precipitation cooling

From a one dimensional view of temperature alone variations at the Earth's surface manifest themselves in two cyclic patterns of diurnal and annual periods, due principally to the effects of diurnal and seasonal changes in solar heating as well as gains and losses of available moisture. Beside these two well known cyclic patterns, a third cycle has been identified which occurs in values of diurnal maxima and minima soil temperature extrema at 10 cm depth usually over a mesoscale period of roughly 3 to 14 days. This mesoscale period cycle starts with precipitation cooling of soil and is followed by a power curve temperature recovery. The temperature recovery clearly depends on solar heating of the soil with an increased soil moisture content from precipitation combined with evaporation cooling at soil temperatures lowered by precipitation cooling, but is quite regular and universal for vastly different geographical locations, and soil types and structures. The regularity of the power curve recovery allows a predictive model approach over the recovery period. Multivariable linear regression models alloy predictions of both the power of the temperature recovery curve as well as the total temperature recovery amplitude of the mesoscale temperature recovery, from data available one day after the temperature recovery begins.

Welker, J. E.↗

Advances in parameterization of cumulus convection in numerical models

Observational studies over the last decade have revealed new sources of difficulty in the already complex problem of parameterization of precipitating cumulus convection in large scale numerical weather prediction models. The structure of mesoscale updrafts and downdrafts and the difficulties they present for cumulus parameterization is reviewed. An approach is proposed which follows Kuo (1974) but includes cumulus and mesoscale downdrafts in the vertical distributions of heating and moistening. The development of a realistic life cycle behavior in the numerical prediction of a mesoscale convective complex will be shown.

Molinari, J.↗

Variational assimilation of VAS data into the mass model

Experiments are reported in which VAS data at 1200, 1500, and 1800 GMT 20 July 1981 were assimilated using both the adiabatic and full physics version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). A nonassimilation forecast is compared with forecasts assimilating temperature gradients only and forecasts assimilating both temperature and humidity gradients. The effects of successive vs single assimilations are also examined. It is noted that the greatest improvements to the forecast resulted when the VAS data resolved the mesoscale structure of the temperature and relative humidity fields. When this structure was assimilated into MASS, the ensuing simulations more clearly defined a mesoscale structure in the developing instabilities.

Cram, J. M.↗

Validation of mesocale number sea breeze thunderstorm forecasts over Florida using LPATS - The Lightning Position and Tracking System

The research reported in the present paper has the objective to develop improved operational techniques for sea breeze (SB) initiated convective storms. It is pointed out that the sea breeze is a relatively simple mesoscale circulation. The considered studies are mainly concerned with detailed thunderstorm potential forecasts during the next several hours, taking into account real-time predictions using new supercomputer technology. Thunderstorm and coastal mesoscale circulations are discussed along with the P3DM model sea. The considered code represents the result of a further development of the NOAA Florida sea breeze model which was introduced by Pielke (1974). After its modificataion, the model was renamed the Prognostic Three Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) Model, with its 2-D connterpart the P2DM. Attention is also given to real time climatology, and a case study concerned with developments occurring on 5 May 1984 over the Florida Peninsula.

Lyons, W. A.↗