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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

First Measurement of Inclusive Muon Neutrino Charged Current Triple Differential Cross Section on Argon

The field of accelerator neutrino experiments is entering an era of precision oscillation measurements where the remaining unknown neutrino measurements will be determined. The upcoming DUNE and Hyper-K experiments aim to determine the neutrino mass hierarchy and degree of Charge-Parity (CP) violation in the neutrino sector, providing potential insight on the matter-antimatter imbalance observed in the universe. However, these experiments require highly accurate measurements, and neutrino cross section modeling uncertainties may limit their capabilities. Cross section measurements at current- generation experiments can aid the development of neutrino interaction models to reduce these uncertainties. This is especially true for measurements of neutrino energy, as it drives neutrino oscillations and is of key importance to oscillation experiments. The MicroBooNE experiment uses a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) to produce neutrino-argon cross sections as one of its physics goals. The MicroBooNE detector’s fully active volume, precision reconstruction, and calorimetry information are leveraged in the Wire-Cell analysis to produce a muon neutrino selection that is 92% pure while maintaining 68% efficiency. A reconstruction chain featuring a fully 3D charge reconstruction and a graph-based particle trajectory fit are used to produce accurate measurements of lepton kinematics as well as visible hadronic energy produced in a neutrino interaction. This thesis presents the first neutrino-argon triple-differential cross section measurement, targeting inclusive charged-current final states. Wiener SVD unfolding is used to produce a measurement over neutrino energy, muon momentum, and muon scattering angle. A series of constrained goodness of fit tests are used to demonstrate the validity of MicroBooNE’s model in describing the distribution of reconstructed kinematics seen in data to ensure the accuracy of unfolding. The validated unfolding to neutrino energy represents a step forward in the field of neutrino cross sections, and demonstrates the capabilities of the LArTPC detector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Propagation of statistical uncertainties of Skyrme mass models to simulations of r -process nucleosynthesis

Uncertainties in nuclear models have a major impact on simulations that aim at understanding the origin of heavy elements in the universe through the rapid neutron capture process ( r process) of nucleosynthesis. Within the framework of the nuclear density functional theory, we use results of Bayesian statistical analysis to propagate uncertainties in the parameters of energy density functionals to the predicted r -process abundance pattern, by way not only of the nuclear masses but also through the influence of the masses on β -decay and neutron capture rates. We point out the importance of the nonequilibrium end stage of the r process in determining the width of the resulting abundance pattern uncertainty bands. We additionally make the first identifications of specific parameters of Skyrme-like energy density functionals which show tentative correlations with particular aspects of the r -process abundance pattern. While previous studies have explored the reduction in the abundance pattern uncertainties due to anticipated new measurements of neutron-rich nuclei, here we point out that an even larger reduction will occur when these new measurements are used to reduce the uncertainty of model predictions of masses, which are then propagated through to the abundance pattern. We make a quantitative prediction for how large this reduction will be.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Measurements of Freestream Fluctuations in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel

An experimental campaign was conducted to measure and to characterize the freestream disturbance levels in the NASA Langley Research Center 20-Inch Mach 6 Wind Tunnel. A pitot rake was instrumented with fast pressure transducers, hot wires, and an atomic layer thermopile to quantify the fluctuation levels of pressure, mass flux, and heat flux, respectively. In conjunction with these probe-based measurements, focused laser differential interferometry was used to optically measure density fluctuations. Measurements were made at five nominal different unit Reynolds numbers ranging from (3.28 to 26.5) times 10 (sup 6) per meter. The rake was positioned at two different stream-wise locations and several different roll angles to measure flow uniformity within the test section. In general, noise levels were spatially consistent within the tested region. Pitot pressure fluctuation levels ranged from 0.84 percent at the highest Reynolds number tested to 1.89 percent at the lowest Reynolds number tested. Freestream mass-flux fluctuations remained relatively constant between 1.8-2.5 percent of the freestream. The pressure transducers were also used to determine the dominant disturbance speed and angle of propagation. The disturbances were estimated to travel at approximately 54-81 percent of the freestream speed at an angle of approximately 21-44 degrees from the freestream direction, but these measurements had a significant amount of uncertainty. A comparison to previous measurements of pressure made in 2012 and of mass flux made in 1994 show almost no change in the RMS (Root Mean Square) fluctuation of these flow quantities.

Chou, Amanda↗
NASA NTRS2022

VESIcal: An Open-source Thermodynamic Model Engine for Mixed Volatile (H2O-CO2) Solubility in Silicate Melts

Modeling the solubility of volatiles in silicate melts is fundamental to the interpretation of volcanic systems and has implications for magma dynamics, eruption style, and material transport between the mantle, crust, and atmosphere. Recent advancements in computational capabilities and access to computing tools has outpaced the functionality and extensibility of previously available modeling platforms. Here we present VESIcal (Volatile Equilibria and Saturation Index calculator), the first comprehensive modeling tool for H2O, CO2, and mixed (H2O-CO2) solubility in silicate melts that: a) allows users access to seven popular models, with easy inter-comparison between models; b) provides universal functionality for all models (e.g., functions for calculating saturation pressures, degassing paths, etc.); c) can process large datasets (1,000’s of samples) automatically; d) can output computed data into an Excel spreadsheet or CSV file for post-modeling analysis; e) integrates plotting capabilities directly within the tool; and f) provides all of this within the framework of a python library, making the tool extensible by the user and allowing any of the model functions to be incorporated into any other code capable of calling python.Here we will provide a demonstration of VESIcal and its capabilities with applications to various volcanic processes affected by volatiles. VESIcal represents the first tool capable of directly comparing multiple solubility models and equations of state. We find that commonly used models predict surprisingly different volatile solubilities, particularly for pure CO2 or mixed CO2-H2O fluids. Even for melt compositions that are well represented in the calibration datasets of multiple models (e.g., MORBs), calculated solubilities for pure CO2 and pure H2O can deviate from one another by factors of >2 leading to 2x deviations in calculated saturation pressures (e.g., 5 to 10 kbar). The solubility of CO2 predicted by different rhyolitic models also differs substantially, overwhelming other sources of uncertainty such as analytical errors on measurements of volatile contents or uncertainties in crustal density profiles. This highlights the importance of model choice when drawing geological conclusions based on volatiles in magmas.

Kayla Iacovino↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents the quantification of uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the Advanced Reactor Technologies? research and development program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR 5/6/7 capsules, the results of the numerical simulations are used in combination with statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. The calculated fuel temperatures for AGR tests are also used for validation of the fission product transport and fuel performance simulation models. These crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. This report covers temperature uncertainty results for each of the five AGR 5/6/7 capsules. To quantify the uncertainty of calculated temperatures determined using the ABAQUS finite element heat transfer code, this study identifies and analyzes model parameters of potential importance to the calculated temperatures of fuel compacts and thermocouples. The selection of input parameters for uncertainty quantification is based on the ranking of their influences upon temperature predictions. Thus, selected input parameters include those with high sensitivity and those with the largest uncertainty. Propagation of model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity is then used to quantify the overall uncertainty of calculated temperatures. Measurement uncertainty, analysis of modeling assumptions, and expert judgment are used as the basis to quantify the uncertainty range for selected input parameters. The input uncertainties are dynamic, accounting for the effect of unplanned events and changes in thermal properties of capsule components over extended exposure to high temperatures and fast neutron irradiation. The sensitivity analysis performed in this work went beyond the traditional local sensitivity. Using experimental design, analysis of pairwise interactions of model parameters was performed to establish sufficiency of the time dependent first order (linear) expansion terms in constructing the temperature response surface. To achieve completeness, uncertainty propagation made use of pairwise noise correlations of model parameters. Furthermore, using an interpolation scheme over the input parameter domain, the analysis obtains time dependent sensitivity over the test campaign duration. This allows computation of uncertainty for the calculated fuel temperatures and the calculated graphite temperatures at thermocouple locations during the entire irradiation period.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous Estimation of Large-scale Structure and Milky Way Dust Extinction from Galaxy Surveys

The high cosmological precision offered by the next generation of galaxy surveys hinges on improved corrections for Galactic dust extinction. We explore the possibility of estimating both the dust extinction and large-scale structure from a single photometric galaxy survey, making use of the predictable manner in which Milky Way dust affects the measured brightness and colors of galaxies in a given sky location in several redshift bins. To test our method, we use a synthetic catalog from a cosmological simulation designed to model the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time. At high Galactic latitude (|b| ≳ 20°) and a resolution of 1° (7'), we predict the uncertainty in the measurement of dust extinction, E(B - V), to be 0.005 mag (0.015 mag). This is similar to the uncertainty of existing dust maps, illustrating the feasibility of our method. Simultaneous estimation of large-scale structure is predicted to recover the galaxy overdensity δ with a precision of ~0.01 (~0.05) at 1° (7') resolution. Finally, we also introduce a Bayesian formalism that combines prior information from existing dust maps with the likelihood of Galactic dust extinction determined from the excursion of observed galaxy properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Muon Neutrino on Argon Cross Section Measurements With an Off-Axis Beam

While over ninety years have passed since neutrinos were first predicted in 1930 by Wolfgang Pauli, much about them is still unknown [20]. How many types of neutrinos there are, how precisely neutrinos change flavor, and how neutrinos interact with various types of matter are largely unanswered questions that have implications for fields beyond particle physics, such as cosmology and astrophysics. The final question can be answered partially by differential cross section measurements, two of which constitute the primary result of this thesis. The NeUtrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) Beam at Fermilab in Batavia, IL provides a source of muon neutrinos and muon antineutrinos to the MicroBooNE experiment, an 85 ton liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The technology allows for high precision particle tracking and energy reconstruction that can be used to make cross section measurements. Necessary work for making these measurements for which the author of this thesis made an essential contribution is presented in detail in References [21] [22] [11] [23]. The measurement presented in this thesis is made with 2.187e20 Protons on Target (POT), the standard metric for an amount of beam exposure, of data when the beam was in forward horn current mode. Single-differential cross section measurements in terms of muon candidate kinetic energy and direction are made, and their statistical fits with simulation are 5.8 (12 d.o.f.) and 11.4 (10 d.o.f.), respectively. This indicates that the muon kinematics for muon neutrino and muon antineutrino charged-current (CC) events primarily in the energy range [0-3] GeV can be trusted for oscillation experiments, including DUNE, because of the agreement to within the associated systematic and statistical uncertainties between the measurement and the model in every bin of both single-differential cross sections. This result adds to the corresponding result for the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) because it covers a completely different energy region than that measurement, a double-differential cross section in terms of muon momentum and direction [14]. This result contributes to reducing the uncertainty in near-far event rate comparisons in long baseline neutrino experiments and also adds to existing knowledge of the neutrino-nucleus interaction by describing the outgoing muon kinematics in interactions of muon neutrinos and muon antineutrinos. This result is the first-ever measurement of differential cross sections of muon neutrinos and muon antineutrinos in liquid argon made with an off-axis beam.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Temperature Measurement

The design, installation, checkout, calibration, and operation of a temperature measuring system to be used during tests of a liquid monopropellant rocket engine are discussed. Appendixes include: (1) temperature measurement system elemental uncertainties, and (2) tables and equations for use with thermocouples and resistance thermometers. Design guidelines are given for the critical components of each portion of the system to provide an optimum temperature measurement system which meets the performance criteria specified.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1993

Measurements of dimethyl sulfide and SO2 during GTE/CITE 3

As part of NASA's Tropospheric Experiment Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 3) Sulfur Gas Intercomparison, we conducted measurements of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and SO2 using two techniques well suited for sampling from an aircraft due to their simplicity of design. DMS was collected by preconcentration on gold wire preceded by a KOH-impregnated filter oxidant scrubber, and analyzed by gas chromatography with flame photometric detection. SO2 was collected on K2CO3/glycerol-impregnated filters and analyzed by ion chromatography. In blind tests, both techniques produced excellent agreement with National Institutes of Standards and Technology (NIST) standards. For field measurements, the DMS technique produced excellent correlation with the mean of the six different techniques intercompared. For SO2, the five techniques intercompared were rather poorly correlated, but correlations between the three techniques which passed NIST standards tests were somewhat better. Our SO2 filter measurements exhibited rather large uncertainties due to higher than normal variabiltiy of the filter blanks, which we believe was caused by extended storage in the field. In measurements conducted off the coast of Natal, Brazil, a diurnal afternoon minimum in DMS concentrations accompanied by a corresponding maximum in SO2 concentrations was observed. However, due to rather large uncertainties in the SO2 measurements, any conclusions about the SO2 trend must by considered tentative.

Ferek, Ronald J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Changes to the MTR Fuel Dissolution Flowsheet to Increase the Number of L-Bundles Charged to a Dissolver

Material Test Reactor (MTR) fuels are dissolved in the H-Canyon facility using a Hg-catalyzed, HNO₃ dissolution flowsheet. The flowsheet is based on experimental work in which laboratory-scale experiments were used to provide bounding values for both offgas and H₂ generation rates. The generation of H₂ gas, primarily from the dissolution of Al, is controlled by limiting the surface area exposed to the solution. The number of L-Bundles charged and their submergence level defines the exposed surface area which is directly proportional to the H₂ generation rate. For the MTR fuel dissolution flowsheet, the maximum number of L-Bundles which can be charged to a dissolver was specified as a function of the Al concentration in the solution and the submergence level of the bundle. The MTR fuels are currently dissolved in the 6.1D dissolver. To reach the desired terminal Al concentration, a total of 12 L-Bundles of fuel are dissolved per batch. Depending on the submergence level being used in the dissolver, the 12 bundles are dissolved in three charges of four bundles per charge or in a sequence of three, four, and five bundles. However, if six L-Bundles could be dissolved in the initial charge, a dissolver batch could be completed in two dissolutions instead of three. To assess the feasibility of dissolving six bundles in the first charge, the Savannah River National Laboratory evaluated changes to the MTR flowsheet which increase the number of bundles which can be charged to a dissolver. Since the development of the existing MTR fuel dissolution flowsheet, improved offgas measurement methods have been developed to more accurately calculate the offgas composition and generation rate during laboratory-scale dissolutions. In the first part of this study, improvements in the calibration model for the Raman spectrometer (used for offgas characterization) and a more effective data smoothing routine were applied to existing data. The uncertainty in the offgas composition data used to define the MTR fuel dissolution flowsheet were subsequently re-evaluated which resulted in an approximate 50% reduction in the uncertainty of the H₂ gas concentration measurements. The reduced uncertainty was used in new calculations to define the maximum number of L-Bundles which can be charged to either the 6.1D or 6.4D dissolver as a function of the Al concentration. With the reduced uncertainty in the H₂ concentration measurements, a flowsheet was defined which supported initially charging 6 bundles to a dissolver. This flowsheet is based on the use of 0.002 M Hg, an L-Bundle immersion depth of 54 in., an air sparge/purge flowrate of 40 scfm, an iodine reactor operating temperature of 200 °C, and not exceeding 60% of the H₂ LFL in the dissolver offgas. In the second phase of this study, calculations were performed to assess the impact of changing various operating parameters to increase the number of L-Bundles charged to an H-Canyon dissolver. Applying the improved offgas measurement techniques including the reduced uncertainty in the H₂ concentration measurements to the existing data, the number of bundles of MTR fuel which can be charged to either the 6.1D or 6.4D dissolver were calculated based on varying the bundle immersion depth (44-60 in.), air sparge/purge flowrate (40-60 scfm), iodine reactor operating temperature (150-200 °C), and the percentage of the H₂ LFL which must not be exceeded (60-76%). Qualitatively, the percentage of the LFL had the largest influence on the maximum number of bundles which can be charged to a dissolver followed by the air sparge/purge flowrate, L-Bundle immersion depth, and the iodine reactor operating temperature. During the evaluation of each variable, the other variables were held at the baseline flowsheet conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1981

High-frequency measurements of multilayer ceramic capacitors

A resonant coaxial transmission line, short circuited at one end and open circuited at the other, whose fundamental resonant frequency and Q factor are known, is perturbed with a test capacitor connected either in series at the shorted end of the line, or in shunt at the open end. Measuring the Q factor of the system with the delta f technique yields the effective series resistance, capacitance, and the Q factor of the test specimen. This method of measurement has the advantage that there are no adjustable elements to alter circuit conditions in an unprescribed way, the only variable is the frequency which can be measured with an uncertainty of less than 1 ppm, the loss of the line as a function of frequency is quite predictable, and the Q factor of the line can be made sufficiently high to support accurate measurements of low loss capacitors.

Lafferty, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Measurement effects on the calculation of in-flight thrust for an F404 turbofan engine

A study has been performed that investigates parameter measurement effects on calculated in-flight thrust for the General Electric F404-GE-400 afterburning turbofan engine which powered the X-29A forward-swept wing research aircraft. Net-thrust uncertainty and influence coefficients were calculated and are presented. Six flight conditions were analyzed at five engine power settings each. Results were obtained using the mass flow-temperature and area-pressure thrust calculation methods, both based on the commonly used gas generator technique. Thrust uncertainty was determined using a common procedure based on the use of measurement uncertainty and influence coefficients. The effects of data nonlinearity on the uncertainty calculation procedure were studied and results are presented. The advantages and disadvantages of using this particular uncertainty procedure are discussed. A brief description of the thrust-calculation technique along with the uncertainty calculation procedure is included.

Conners, Timothy R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Measurement effects on the calculation of in-flight thrust for an F404 turbofan engine

A study was performed that investigates parameter measurement effects on calculated in-flight thrust for the General Electric F404-GE-400 afterburning turbofan engine which powered the X-29A forward-swept wing research aircraft. Net-thrust uncertainty and influence coefficients were calculated and are presented. Six flight conditions were analyzed at five engine power settings each. Results were obtained using the mass flow-temperature and area-pressure thrust calculation methods, both based on the commonly used gas generator technique. Thrust uncertainty was determined using a common procedure based on the use of measurement uncertainty and influence coefficients. The effects of data nonlinearity on the uncertainty calculation procedure were studied and results are presented. The advantages and disadvantages of using this particular uncertainty procedure are discussed. A brief description of the thrust-calculation technique along with the uncertainty calculation procedure is included.

Conners, Timothy R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Ways to improve your correlation functions

This paper describes a number of ways to improve on the standard method for measuring the two-point correlation function of large scale structure in the Universe. Issues addressed are: (1) the problem of the mean density, and how to solve it; (2) how to estimate the uncertainty in a measured correlation function; (3) minimum variance pair weighting; (4) unbiased estimation of the selection function when magnitudes are discrete; and (5) analytic computation of angular integrals in background pair counts.

Hamilton, A. J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Effect of Gravity on Surface Tension

Spectroscopic measurements of liquid-vapor interfaces are made in +/- 1-g environments to note the effect of gravity on surface tension. A slight increase is detected at -1-g0, but is arguably within the uncertainty of the measurement technique. An increased dependence of surface tension on the orientation and magnitude of the gravitational vector is anticipated as the critical point is approached.

Weislogel, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗