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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Projected increases in tropical cyclone-induced U.S. electric power outage risk

Abstract While power outages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) already pose a great threat to coastal communities, how—and why—these risks will change in a warming climate is poorly understood. To address this need, we develop a robust machine learning model to capture TC-induced power outage risk. When applied to 900 000 synthetic TCs downscaled from simulated historical and future climate conditions under a strong warming scenario, we find outage risk in the United States and Puerto Rico is expected to increase broadly by the end of the century, with some states seeing increases of 60% and higher. Further, we discover that rising rainfall rates will play an increasingly important role in TC-induced power outage risk as the climate changes, explaining more than 50% of the projected change in risk in some regions. These insights are important for guiding decision-makers in their future outage risk investment and mitigation plans.

Grid Resilience↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning and discovering multiple solutions using physics-informed neural networks with random initialization and deep ensemble

In this work we explore the capability of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to discover multiple solutions. Many real-world phenomena governed by nonlinear differential equations (DEs), such as fluid flow, exhibit multiple solutions under the same conditions, yet capturing this solution multiplicity remains a significant challenge. A key difficulty lies in providing appropriate initial conditions or guesses, as widely used time-marching schemes and Newton’s method are highly sensitive to these choices when solving complex computational problems. While machine learning models, particularly PINNs, have shown promise in solving DEs, their ability to capture multiple solutions remains underexplored. In this work, we propose a simple and practical approach using PINNs to learn and discover multiple solutions. We first demonstrate that PINNs, when combined with random initialization and deep ensemble method—originally developed for uncertainty quantification—can effectively uncover multiple solutions to nonlinear ordinary and partial DEs. Although training large ensembles of PINNs may appear computationally demanding, this can be done efficiently using vectorization techniques supported by modern deep learning frameworks, allowing many networks to be trained simultaneously. Our approach highlights the critical role of initialization in shaping solution diversity, addressing an often-overlooked aspect of machine learning for scientific computing. Furthermore, we propose utilizing PINN-generated solutions as initial conditions or initial guesses for conventional numerical solvers to enhance accuracy and efficiency in capturing multiple solutions. Extensive numerical experiments, including the Allen–Cahn equation and cavity flow, where our approach successfully identifies both stable and unstable solutions, validate the effectiveness of our method. These findings establish a general and efficient framework for addressing solution multiplicity in nonlinear DEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Secondary organic aerosols derived from intermediate-volatility n-alkanes adopt low-viscous phase state

Abstract. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) derived from n-alkanes, as emitted from vehicles and volatile chemical products, is a major component of anthropogenic particulate matter, yet the chemical composition and phase state are poorly understood and thus poorly constrained in aerosol models. Here we provide a comprehensive analysis of n-alkane SOA by explicit gas-phase chemistry modeling, machine learning, and laboratory experiments to show that n-alkane SOA adopts low-viscous semi-solid or liquid states. Our study underlines the complex interplay of molecular composition and SOA viscosity: n-alkane SOA with a higher carbon number mostly consists of less functionalized first-generation products with lower viscosity, while the SOA with a lower carbon number contains more functionalized multigenerational products with higher viscosity. This study opens up a new avenue for analysis of SOA processes, and the results indicate few kinetic limitations of mass accommodation in SOA formation, supporting the application of equilibrium partitioning for simulating n-alkane SOA formation in large-scale atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High temperature melting of dense molecular hydrogen from machine-learning interatomic potentials trained on quantum Monte Carlo

We present results and discuss methods for computing the melting temperature of dense molecular hydrogen using a machine learned model trained on quantum Monte Carlo data. In this newly trained model, we emphasize the importance of accurate total energies in the training. We integrate a two phase method for estimating the melting temperature with estimates from the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to provide a more accurate melting curve from the model. We make detailed predictions of the melting temperature, solid and liquid volumes, latent heat, and internal energy from 50 to 180 GPa for both classical hydrogen and quantum hydrogen. At pressures of roughly 173 GPa and 1635 K, we observe molecular dissociation in the liquid phase. Here, we compare with previous simulations and experimental measurements.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Codon2Vec v1.0

Background: Codon2Vec is an embedding neural network that predicts 'high' or 'low' gene expression directly from the protein-coding sequences. Embedding neural networks are commonly used for natural language processing (NLP) applications. Analogous to how an English sentence is a string of words, a gene can be thought of as a string of codons. Similar to how NLP neural networks model English sentences as a non-random sequence of words, we considered a coding sequence as a non-random non-overlapping array of codons (k-mers of length = 3). Value Proposition: - Codon2Vec achieved a high median AUC-ROC score of 83.8% when trained and applied to transcriptomic data from 300 fungal species - Unlike Codo2Vec, conventional methods predicting for expression based on codon usage rely on a priori knowledge of optimal codons or a set of reference genes. - Unlike Codon2vec, these methods do not account for the effect of codon order on gene expression. - Codon2Vec neural network bypasses the need for artisanal feature selection step that is necessary for traditional machine learning models.

Wint, Rhondene↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Gaussian process based surrogate approach for the optimization of cylindrical targets

Simulating direct-drive inertial confinement experiments presents significant computational challenges, both due to the complexity of the codes required for such simulations and the substantial computational expense associated with target design studies. Machine learning models, and in particular, surrogate models, offer a solution by replacing simulation results with a simplified approximation. In this study, we apply surrogate modeling and optimization techniques that are well established in the existing literature to one-dimensional simulation data of a new cylindrical target design containing deuterium–tritium fuel. These models predict yields without the need for expensive simulations. We find that Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process surrogates enhances sampling efficiency in low-dimensional design spaces but becomes less efficient as dimensionality increases. Nonetheless, optimization routines within two-dimensional and five-dimensional design spaces can identify designs that maximize yield, while also aligning with established physical intuition. Optimization routines, which ignore constraints on hydrodynamic instability growth, are shown to lead to unstable designs in 2D, resulting in yield loss. However, routines that utilize 1D simulations and impose constraints on the in-flight aspect ratio converge on novel cylindrical target designs that are stable against hydrodynamic instability growth in 2D and achieve high yield.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing stream temperature prediction with a generalizable large-sample framework across CONUS river reaches

Accurately predicting stream temperature in ungauged basins remains a critical challenge for water resource management, thermoelectric power plant cooling, and ecosystem conservation. Large-sample machine learning models trained on hundreds of well-monitored river basins have shown remarkable performance; however, such models have yet to be developed solely using forcing data that can be readily extracted to simulate stream temperatures anywhere in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this study, we present a scalable, large-sample deep learning framework using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to simulate daily stream temperatures in ungauged basins across the CONUS. The framework leverages both modeled reanalysis of meteorological and streamflow inputs as well as static attributes available for all 2.7 million CONUS river reaches in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2). By generating dynamical inputs from predefined thermally relevant upstream contributing areas, rather than the entire upstream basin, the model also offers improvements in very large basins where full-basin averaging can dilute the most important influences on stream temperature. Evaluated across 300 basins, the model achieves a median Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.1 °C and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.95 on temporally and spatially distinct test folds—comparable to models trained exclusively using meteorological and streamflow observational data. The flexible, high-performing framework generalizes to any unmonitored river reach without significant regulation or unnatural thermal input immediately upstream, substantially expanding predictive capabilities in data-scarce regions.

Hydrology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Based Feature Extraction from Bulk Time-Series PMU Datasets for Event Detection

In this work, two physics-based feature extraction techniques are developed for bulk time-series phasor measurement unit (PMU) datasets collected from the field to train the machine learning model for anomaly detection. Two approaches have been developed to extract useful features for different types of events. An admittance-based feature extraction technique is developed to detect events that involve line outages and system topology variations. The developed algorithm extracts the system equivalent admittance variation. Additionally, Fielder’s Theory is utilized to further reduce the potential computation burden by sectionalizing large-scale grids and datasets into smaller areas. Second, an oscillation-based feature extraction technique is developed to detect low-frequency oscillations in power grids. The dominant oscillation modes in the grids are extracted using energy-sorted Prony analysis. The extracted dominant oscillation modes by the developed work exhibit a high fitting resolution. Finally, the developed techniques have been validated using large-scale and real-world datasets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensor Reduction for Diversion Detection in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors are designed as a smaller, cheaper, and safer alternative to traditional nuclear power plants. Their non-traditional characteristics and prospect of mass production and deployment will likely require new approaches to nuclear safeguards. The primary proliferation concern with microreactors is the diversion of fuel material. Such diversion may produce measurable defects in key physical attributes like neutron flux, which may in turn be detectable using machine learning models. Preliminary work has demonstrated this ability for modeled nominal and diversion scenarios using large quantities of energy integrated neutron flux data. In practice, the number of available sensors for such measurements will be limited and energy integrated flux information will not be available. This work explores the ability of tree-based gradient boosted ensemble models to classify a given microreactor core is nominal or diversion, and determine the number of fuel pins diverted in the case of diversion with reduced numbers of sensors and more realistic detector responses. Classification accuracy of greater than 98% and regression errors as low as 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved with as few as 15 sensors, compared to 99% and 4.1% with a maximum of 240 sensors.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of acoustic monitoring for structural health of microreactors: Through use of neural networks and resonant ultrasound spectroscopy

Nuclear microreactors prioritize modularity and portability and are intended to be a cost-effective technology for non-conventional nuclear markets. As such, the development of microreactors into a safe and feasible solution for energy security applications will necessitate the development of non-destructive technologies to monitor the integrity of inaccessible reactors components during operation. This demonstration applies linear and nonlinear acoustic techniques, in combination with machine learning, to detect and classify mechanical changes (stress and damage) in a test article which are broadly representative of potential operating challenges within a functioning microreactor. All necessary data has been collected for this demonstration, with minor experimental issues identified that can be addressed in follow-on work. Motivated by the expected conditions within a functioning microreactor, we have demonstrated our monitoring techniques on a core-block-like test article using an unstructured excitation source that approximates the noisy acoustic environment expected during reactor operation. At all stress states mechanically applied to the test article, a machine learning model using an artificial neural network was able to classify with 100% accuracy whether a 3D laser vibrometry point measurement was made on an intact or artificially defective test article. Further, model predictions about whether the defect interface was rough or smooth were 95% accurate, indicating the ability of acoustic techniques to recover defect characteristics. Resonant ultrasound spectroscopy (RUS) was also applied to the dataset to provide further quantitative insights about material properties. RUS analysis was ultimately hampered by several minor experimental and data issues, limiting results to certain cases for this demonstration. Last, analysis using nonlinear RUS exhibited sensitivity to changing levels of applied stresses for each intact and defective state. As presented in this demonstration, acoustic monitoring exhibits sensitivity to stress changes, which are of concern due to high thermal gradients expected during startup and operation. Further, our techniques distinguish between measurements made on intact and damaged test articles.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fundamental limit of jet tagging

Identifying the origin of high-energy hadronic jets (jet tagging) has been a critical benchmark problem for machine learning in particle physics. Jets are ubiquitous at colliders and are complex objects that serve as prototypical examples of collections of particles to be categorized. Over the last decade, machine learning-based classifiers have replaced classical observables as the state of the art in jet tagging. Increasingly complex machine learning models are leading to increasingly more effective tagger performance. Our goal is to address the question of convergence—are we getting close to the fundamental limit on jet tagging or is there still potential for computational, statistical, and physical insights for further improvements? We address this question using state-of-the-art generative models to create a realistic, synthetic dataset with a known jet tagging optimum. Various state-of-the-art taggers are deployed on this dataset, showing that there is a significant gap between their performance and the optimum. Our dataset and software are made public to provide a benchmark task for future developments in jet tagging and other areas of particle physics.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2020

Crowd-Sourced Data and Analysis Tools for Advancing the Chemical Vapor Deposition of Graphene: Implications for Manufacturing

Industrial production of graphene by chemical vapor deposition (CVD) requires more than the ability to synthesize large domain, high-quality graphene in a lab reactor. The integration of graphene in the fabrication process of electronic devices requires the cost-effective and environmentally friendly production of graphene on dielectric substrates, but current approaches can only produce graphene on metal catalysts. Sustainable manufacturing of graphene should also conserve the catalyst and reaction gases, but today the metal catalysts are typically dissolved after synthesis. Progress toward these objectives is hindered by the hundreds of coupled synthesis parameters that can strongly affect CVD of low-dimensional materials and poor communication in the published literature of the rich experimental data that exists in individual laboratories. We report here on a platform, "graphene recipes for synthesis of high quality material" (Gr-ResQ: pronounced graphene rescue), which includes powerful new tools for data-driven graphene synthesis. At the core of Gr-ResQ is a crowd-sourced database of CVD synthesis recipes and associated experimental results. The database captures similar to 300 parameters ranging from synthesis conditions such as a catalyst material and preparation steps, to ambient lab temperature and reactor details, as well as resulting Raman spectra and microscopy images. These parameters are carefully selected to unlock the potential of machine-learning models to advance synthesis. A suite of associated tools enable fast, automated, and standardized processing of Raman spectra and scanning electron microscopy images. To facilitate community-based efforts, Gr-ResQ provides tools for cyber-physical collaborations among research groups, allowing experiments to be designed, executed, and analyzed by different teams. Gr-ResQ also allows publication and discovery of recipes via the Materials Data Facility, which assigns each recipe a unique identifier when published and collects parameters in a search index. We envision that this holistic approach to data-driven synthesis can accelerate CVD recipe discovery and production control and open opportunities for advancing not only graphene but also many other 1D and 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

High throughput exploration of the oxidation landscape in high entropy alloys

We report high entropy alloys (HEAs) have gained interest for structural applications in extreme environments. With a potentially vast chemical and phase space, there are significant opportunities to discover superior performing alloys. Crucial for most high-temperature applications is understanding and mitigating the oxidation behavior of these chemically complex alloys. Most experimental and computational HEA studies have focused on a limited set of compositions and only a fraction these compositions have been characterized for oxidation. We present a high-throughput framework that utilizes density-functional theory (DFT) in concert with a combined machine-learning model and grand-canonical linear programming for assessing phase stability, phase-fraction, chemical activity and high-temperature survivability of arbitrary HEAs. This framework considers temperature dependent contributions to the Gibbs energy of the competing phases arising from short-range order and vibrational entropy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework by assessing the thermodynamic stability, oxidation behavior, chemical activity, and phase decomposition of body-centered cubic Mo-W-Ta-Ti-Zr refractory HEAs. A total of 51 compositions were analyzed and ranked in order of their survivability based on the Pareto-front analysis. Oxidation was performed at 1373 K on fours samples in air showing the difference in oxidation behavior determined experimentally through scale thickness and their mass changes. The insights on oxidation behavior presented in this work will enable the fast assessment of technologically useful HEAs needed for future structural application in extreme conditions

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Active meta-learning for predicting and selecting perovskite crystallization experiments

Autonomous experimentation systems use algorithms and data from prior experiments to select and perform new experiments in order to meet a specified objective. In most experimental chemistry situations, there is a limited set of prior historical data available, and acquiring new data may be expensive and time consuming, which places constraints on machine learning methods. Active learning methods prioritize new experiment selection by using machine learning model uncertainty and predicted outcomes. Meta-learning methods attempt to construct models that can learn quickly with a limited set of data for a new task. Here in this paper, we applied the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) model and the Probabilistic LATent model for Incorporating Priors and Uncertainty in few-Shot learning (PLATIPUS) approach, which extends MAML to active learning, to the problem of halide perovskite growth by inverse temperature crystallization. Using a dataset of 1870 reactions conducted using 19 different organoammonium lead iodide systems, we determined the optimal strategies for incorporating historical data into active and meta-learning models to predict reaction compositions that result in crystals. We then evaluated the best three algorithms (PLATIPUS and active-learning k-nearest neighbor and decision tree algorithms) with four new chemical systems in experimental laboratory tests. With a fixed budget of 20 experiments, PLATIPUS makes superior predictions of reaction outcomes compared to other active-learning algorithms and a random baseline.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unstructured clinical notes within the 24 hours since admission predict short, mid & long-term mortality in adult ICU patients

Mortality prediction for intensive care unit (ICU) patients is crucial for improving outcomes and efficient utilization of resources. Accessibility of electronic health records (EHR) has enabled data-driven predictive modeling using machine learning. However, very few studies rely solely on unstructured clinical notes from the EHR for mortality prediction. In this work, we propose a framework to predict short, mid, and long-term mortality in adult ICU patients using unstructured clinical notes from the MIMIC III database, natural language processing (NLP), and machine learning (ML) models. Depending on the statistical description of the patients’ length of stay, we define the short-term as 48-hour and 4-day period, the mid-term as 7-day and 10-day period, and the long-term as 15-day and 30-day period after admission. We found that by only using clinical notes within the 24 hours of admission, our framework can achieve a high area under the receiver operating characteristics (AU-ROC) score for short, mid and long-term mortality prediction tasks. The test AU-ROC scores are 0.87, 0.83, 0.83, 0.82, 0.82, and 0.82 for 48-hour, 4-day, 7-day, 10-day, 15-day, and 30-day period mortality prediction, respectively. We also provide a comparative study among three types of feature extraction techniques from NLP: frequency-based technique, fixed embedding-based technique, and dynamic embedding-based technique. Lastly, we provide an interpretation of the NLP-based predictive models using feature-importance scores.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of new marker genes from plant single‐cell RNA‐seq data using interpretable machine learning methods

Summary An essential step in the analysis of single‐cell RNA sequencing data is to classify cells into specific cell types using marker genes. In this study, we have developed a machine learning pipeline called single‐cell predictive marker (SPmarker) to identify novel cell‐type marker genes in the Arabidopsis root. Unlike traditional approaches, our method uses interpretable machine learning models to select marker genes. We have demonstrated that our method can: assign cell types based on cells that were labelled using published methods; project cell types identified by trajectory analysis from one data set to other data sets; and assign cell types based on internal GFP markers. Using SPmarker, we have identified hundreds of new marker genes that were not identified before. As compared to known marker genes, the new marker genes have more orthologous genes identifiable in the corresponding rice single‐cell clusters. The new root hair marker genes also include 172 genes with orthologs expressed in root hair cells in five non‐ Arabidopsis species, which expands the number of marker genes for this cell type by 35–154%. Our results represent a new approach to identifying cell‐type marker genes from scRNA‐seq data and pave the way for cross‐species mapping of scRNA‐seq data in plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

OrbNet Denali: A machine learning potential for biological and organic chemistry with semi-empirical cost and DFT accuracy

We present OrbNet Denali, a machine learning model for an electronic structure that is designed as a drop-in replacement for groundstate density functional theory (DFT) energy calculations. The model is a message-passing graph neural network that uses symmetryadapted atomic orbital features from a low-cost quantum calculation to predict the energy of a molecule. OrbNet Denali is trained on a vast dataset of 2.3 × 10 6 DFT calculations on molecules and geometries. This dataset covers the most common elements in biochemistry and organic chemistry (H, Li, B, C, N, O, F, Na, Mg, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Br, and I) and charged molecules. OrbNet Denali is demonstrated on several well-established benchmark datasets, and we find that it provides accuracy that is on par with modern DFT methods while offering a speedup of up to three orders of magnitude. For the GMTKN55 benchmark set, OrbNet Denali achieves WTMAD-1 and WTMAD-2 scores of 7.19 and 9.84, on par with modern DFT functionals. For several GMTKN55 subsets, which contain chemical problems that are not present in the training set, OrbNet Denali produces a mean absolute error comparable to those of DFT methods. For the Hutchison conformer benchmark set, OrbNet Denali has a median correlation coefficient of R 2 = 0.90 compared to the reference DLPNO-CCSD(T) calculation and R 2 = 0.97 compared to the method used to generate the training data (ωB97X-D3/def2- TZVP), exceeding the performance of any other method with a similar cost. Similarly, the model reaches chemical accuracy for noncovalent interactions in the S66x10 dataset. For torsional profiles, OrbNet Denali reproduces the torsion profiles of ωB97X-D3/def2-TZVP with an average mean absolute error of 0.12 kcal/mol for the potential energy surfaces of the diverse fragments in the TorsionNet500 dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗