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DOE OSTI2021

Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis

The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis project has shed light on system interactions within the biomass-to-biofuel supply chain for the past 15 years. This presentation highlights recent analyses on investment and policy scenarios for sustainable aviation fuel, the economic and policy considerations for the historical buildout of the starch ethanol industry, and the potential impact of U.S. Department of Energy investment in bioenergy R&D.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data Driven Analysis for Modernization Program Management

NNSA is responsible for managing national nuclear security missions: ensuring a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear deterrent; supplying nuclear fuel to the Navy; and supporting the nation’s nuclear nonproliferation efforts. However, over half of NNSA’s facilities are more than 40 years old, and roughly one-third date back to the Manhattan Project. To execute its critical nuclear security missions, NNSA is making large investments to modernize its nuclear production capabilities. This ramp up represents NNSA’s largest modernization effort since the Cold War. Given the scale of these efforts, NNSA’s Office of Secondary Stage Production Modernization has implemented data driven techniques to prioritize investments and inform strategic decision making. NNSA, with support from its site managing contractors, has developed and implemented an integrated schedule and risk management system to address the issues and limitations with the traditional approach. The multi-year integrated schedules are key to identifying program linkages and managing large portfolios comprised of many different projects and efforts. In conjunction with the integrated schedule, a new program risk management system has also been developed and implemented, which manages program risks and opportunities, along with specific mitigation strategies to reduce or eliminate the risks per timelines that are tracked in the integrated schedule. This paper is supplemented with a follow-on presentation on effective management of program material and throughput modeling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass2021: Opportunities from Cross-survey Analyses of Static Probes

Cosmological data in the next decade will be characterized by high-precision, multi-wavelength measurements of thousands of square degrees of the same patches of sky. By performing multi-survey analyses that harness the correlated nature of these datasets, we will gain access to new science, and increase the precision and robustness of science being pursued by each individual survey. However, effective application of such analyses requires a qualitatively new level of investment in cross-survey infrastructure, including simulations, associated modeling, coordination of data sharing, and survey strategy. The scientific gains from this new level of investment are multiplicative, as the benefits can be reaped by even present-day instruments, and can be applied to new instruments as they come online.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Occupant Health and Productivity for Deep Retrofits: Beyond Traditional IEQ Studies

As energy-efficiency standards for both new construction and existing building renovations become more stringent, further reductions become less tractable and more expensive. With increasing interest and rising investment in healthy built environments, integrating energy efficiency with improved occupant experience (i.e., health, comfort, and work performance) offers a new path to drive deep energy retrofits. However, the difficulty in quantifying and verifying health and productivity gains from building upgrades leads to lower valuation of human benefits in practice. Building codes and standards have progressive energy targets but often give minimum requirements to occupant health for factors such as ventilation and thermal comfort. State and federal laws in the United States that govern the energy service performance contract (ESPC) have no clear and consistent guidance on quantifying non-energy benefits and incorporating them into a formal cost-effectiveness analysis. This paper presents a methodology to measure a building’s potential performance improvement regarding occupant health based on existing evidence correlating IEQ to occupant outcomes. Health improvement measures are integrated with a building energy model to identify and measure the impact of holistic improvement strategies. The net present value of these measures is determined based on the investment costs required to attain those improvements, energy savings, and personnel gains. We will discuss results from one pilot building, which showed nearly $50 per square foot 20-year net present value using the integrated approach.

Keene, Kevin M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development Of Thermodynamic and Kinetic Simulation Tools and Testing Procedures for Enhanced Durability of Concrete Containing Industrial By-Products

This project developed screening tools that enable evaluation of alternative cementitious binders that create concretes to significantly reduce energy and emissions while remaining cost competitive on both initial and long-term costs. The team began with the viewpoint that acceptance of new cementitious binder products has a substantially greater chance of successful implementation when capital investment is not excessive and the end product has customers that have experience and resources to use this. As such, a binder system that is based on portland cement with blended using industrial by-products (alternative cementitious materials) has the potential for dramatic and meaningful impact. The team has focused on developing implementable solutions in specifications and current practice. This however requires three main factors: 1) ability to screen byproducts and alternative materials for success, 2) ability to ‘treat’ materials chemically to enhance kinetics, and 3) ability to provide predictions of performance of both binders and concrete from first principles. The project developed/refined a state of the art and scientifically based screening test for SCM called the pozzolanic reactivity test. The team developed kinetic models to simulate these materials as well as experimental approaches to alter selected reactions. Simulation tools were developed that enable the performance of concrete to be predicted based on the chemistry and reactivity of the cement and alternative SCM. Specifically, this project: • enhanced the kinetic reactivity models for use in multi-scale computational programs that use thermodynamics to predict reaction products. 2 • developed scaling models to extend thermodynamic modeling to link these models with pore structure. This enables strength, transport property, and coupled transport prediction. • developed tools to predict performance of cementitious materials using the pozzolanic reactivity test and chemical composition. The predicted properties are consistent with AASHTO R101 and the CEB-FIP model code and can be measured using associated test procedures. • demonstrated mechanical and fracture based modeling tools that thermodynamic predictions and inputs to predict concrete service life. These results have been used to demonstrate the value of enabling specifications to include ASTM C 595 cement as well ASTM C150 cement. In addition, these products are being used to expedite the evaluation of alternative SCM to aide in determining which materials have potential value and what ‘compositions’ of blended cements merit further investment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ongoing Data Platform Development for High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) Thermal-Fluid Experiments Supported by Nuclear Energy University Program (NEUP) [Presentation Slides]

There are in total 30NEUP projects focusing on the thermal-fluid experiments related with High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) from FY2009 to FY2021, producing a large amount of high-quality validation data, however, these valuable data has been scattering everywhere and not been disseminated to the community well, and final reports are available only from OSTI webpage. This could potentially be a huge waste, not only for government budget but also for the HTGR research community. To improve access to this HTGR validation data and optimize the return on the significant investment made by DOE and supported by the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR) program, we conducted a survey to assess completed and ongoing HTGR NEUP projects with the aim to develop a public-access data platform that can be used to retrieve code validation data and guide future NEUP investments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass Computational Frontier: Topical Group Report on Experimental Algorithm Parallelization

The substantial increase in data volume and complexity expected from future experiments will require significant investment to prepare experimental algorithms. These algorithms include physics object reconstruction, calibrations, and processing of observational data. In addition, the changing computing architecture landscape, which will be primarily composed of heterogeneous resources, will continue to pose major challenges with regard to algorithmic migration. Portable tools need to be developed that can be shared among the frontiers (e.g., for code execution on different platforms) and opportunities, such as forums or cross-experimental working groups, need to be provided where experiences and lessons learned can be shared between experiments and frontiers. At the same time, individual experiments also need to invest considerable resources to develop algorithms unique to their needs (e.g., for facilities dedicated to the experiment), and ensure that their specific algorithms will be able to efficiently exploit external heterogeneous computing facilities. Common software tools represent a cost-effective solution, providing ready-to-use software solutions as well as a platform for R&D work. These are particularly important for small experiments which typically do not have dedicated resources needed to face the challenges imposed by the evolving computing technologies. Workforce development is a key concern across frontiers and experiments, and additional support is needed to provide career opportunities for researchers working in the field of experimental algorithm development. Finally, cross-discipline collaborations going beyond high-energy physics are a key ingredient to address the challenges ahead and more support for such collaborations needs to be created. This report targets future experiments, observations and experimental algorithm development for the next 10-15 years.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrostatic energy harvester

An electrostatic energy harvester broadly comprises an electrical energy storage component, an electrical energy transfer stage, first and second variable capacitors, and a switching control module. The electrical energy transfer stage includes diode-connected transistors and dictates electrical energy transfer between the electrical energy storage component and the variable capacitors. The switching control module timely switches between the first and second variable capacitors according to a state machine. Subsequent electrical energy investments from the electrical energy storage component are less than an initial electrical energy investment due to remnant electrical energy remaining at the previously active one of the first and second variable capacitors from previous electrical energy harvesting.

Wilson, Amy Charlene↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrostatic energy harvester

Wilson, Amy Charlene↗

DOE OSTI2022

Powering America’s Non-Powered Dams, One Byte at a Time

Compared with other hydropower development opportunities, powering underutilized water infrastructure provides an attractive option for expanding clean energy in the 21st century. Research conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) targets hydropower development at non-powered dams (NPD) from several angles and is increasingly looking to new and improved data sources to inform decision-making. Sponsored by the DOE Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO), ORNL’s latest efforts build on a decade of work to advance understanding and data access for improved decision-making. Outcomes of the most recent research are geared toward better informing NPD stakeholders across a wide spectrum of interests. Furthermore, these outcomes are paving the way for additional federal investments to power NPDs in the U.S., including investments in innovative new technologies that incorporate ecological and social objectives while achieving cost reductions, commercialization and deployment. Here, this research centers around improving the breadth and accessibility of NPD data. These new digital information tools and associated tools can lead to a better decision-making process and support new hydropower development, helping to power America’s NPDs, one “byte” at a time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrostatic energy harvester

Wilson, Amy Charlene↗

DOE OSTI2023

Representing the Future Role of Hydropower and Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) in Electricity Planning Tools

Existing tools for long-term electric sector planning struggle to represent hydropower's nuanced site-specific technical and operating characteristics, which depend on technical specifications as well as water management practices and regulations. As a result, long-term planning models and tools insufficiently characterize hydropower value and incentives, and they cannot fully represent the role hydropower can play in a future electricity system that could include a high penetration of variable wind and solar generation, battery storage, and other low-carbon technologies. This presentation demonstrates the culmination of a multi-year effort to enhance hydropower representations in electricity planning models at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) HydroWIRES Initiative. New modeling techniques are demonstrated using the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), an open-access electric sector capacity expansion model used extensively in a wide range of technology deployment and integration analysis, including the 2016 USDOE Hydropower Vision. ReEDS uses a least-cost optimization approach to understand investment and operation of electricity generation, storage, and transmission technologies under future scenarios of electricity technology innovation, demand, policy, and other sectoral drivers. ReEDS was modified to better represent value and opportunities for both pumped storage hydropower (PSH) and hydropower systems without pumping. We incorporated a new national closed-loop PSH resource and cost assessment to explore new PSH deployment opportunities and added plant-level data to better represent the existing PSH fleet. New upgrade pathways enable opportunities for enhanced hydropower flexibility by adding pumps, upgrading dispatchability, increasing capacity, or increasing energy availability. The model was also modified to better represent the value of long-duration energy storage beyond diurnal time scales, allowing both hydropower and PSH to better balance energy supply and demand variations in high-renewable systems. These new features are demonstrated under reference and high-renewable futures and a range of sensitivity scenarios to understand which hydropower and PSH deployment and upgrade opportunities are the most attractive. These scenarios indicate potential for new closed-loop PSH deployment and for hydropower flexibility improvements to have important impacts on long-term electricity system emissions and economic outcomes. Increasing flexibility of the existing hydropower fleet can reduce the need to invest in new flexible grid technologies and help achieve decarbonization goals. Systems with sufficient energy storage could also be valuable for balancing seasonal differences in renewable energy availability, particularly from solar energy. The methods developed for ReEDS and subsequent scenario results reveal important considerations for future hydropower and grid system planning, and all data and code is freely available in a public code repository for use throughout the hydropower industry.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2023

Informing Cybersecurity Decisions With the Value-at-Risk Framework

Security at every site is critical to making hydropower a strong contributor to the country's grid, but with ongoing development and expanding capabilities, the diversity of the existing hydropower fleet makes across-the-board investment decisions difficult. The threat of cyberattacks naturally increases as the interconnection of Information Technology and Operational Technology networks broadens. Hydropower plants require custom analyses that are specific to the unique challenges and characteristics of any given facility. Facilities, however, often do not have the necessary resources for managers to make informed decisions on investments based on assessed capabilities and risks.

cybersecurity↗

DOE OSTI2023

Conducting Field Validations of Commercial Energy Efficiency Technologies with Underserved Communities: Preprint

Underserved communities in the United States often experience the negative impacts of climate change and environmental degradation but enjoy few of the benefits of technological and environmental advances. The White House has addressed this inequity through the Justice40 initiative, which requires 40% of the benefits of select federal investments to be directed to underserved communities (The White House, 2022). Clean energy and energy efficiency are two highlighted investment categories, so the U.S. Department of Energy will guide implementation of the Justice40 initiative by, among other things, decreasing energy burdens, increasing parity in clean energy technology access and adoption, and increasing energy resiliency. A strategy for reaching these goals is to evaluate and validate new energy efficiency technologies in commercial buildings in underserved communities, where buildings may be older, smaller, and have deferred maintenance due to historical underinvestment. This paper assesses the proficiency of the technologies under these conditions and increases awareness of the benefits to the communities. In addition, historical redlining and past negative experiences with government and large institutions may make residents wary of participating in these field validations. Researchers, therefore, may need to spend more time building relationships and matching technologies to buildings. In this paper, we analyzed technical reports to identify common required and desired field validation building characteristics, and conducted semi-structured expert conversations to identify key stages and major themes of engaging underserved communities. Our results indicate that the benefits to both the community and energy efficiency research justify the effort. The White House. (2022). Justice40. https://www.whitehouse.gov/environmentaljustice/justice40/

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Report on the Creation and Progress of the Hydrogen Regulatory Research Review Group

The current U.S. nuclear generation fleet is increasingly recognized by governmental, scientific, public policy, and industrial communities as having a strategic role in support of the ongoing national transition to a clean energy future. Federal incentives and actions are aligning to expand the role of nuclear power as a viable and more flexible contributor to the evolving national clean energy mix through programs and initiatives such as nuclear power loan guarantees; the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) clean nuclear electrical, steam, and hydrogen incentives; the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA, also referred to as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act or BIL); and near term Department of Energy (DOE) funding opportunities related to nuclear based hydrogen hubs and nuclear integrated hydrogen demonstration projects. . Additionally, leveraging clean nuclear electricity and steam is being explored by industries desiring to transition away from carbon-intensive energy sources. Even with all these emerging enablers, notable barriers remain for the widespread adoption of these opportunities within the U.S. nuclear fleet, including the following: • Assurance of the markets for alternate products needed to support decision-making for large capital modification investments • Electric utility mindset and business history centered solely on producing electricity • Design change complexity and regulatory uncertainty associated with plant modifications needed to support alternate product streams The DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Flexible Plant Operations and Generation (FPOG) Pathway is developing options to help U.S. nuclear power plants (NPP) in all these areas to enable NPPs designed for steady baseload operation to integrate with intermittent wind and solar capacity to assure reliable clean energy for the nation. Current and near-term laboratory research is focusing on the technical, regulatory, safety, demonstration, and economic elements in support of improving nuclear plant flexibility through hybrid production of electricity and other non-electric products such as hydrogen and energy arbitrage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Socio-Technical Threat Models

Given the adoption of emerging technologies and the increasing complexity of managing such systems with a lifecycle much shorter than that of critical infrastructure systems, there is a practical need to be able to analyze sociotechnical dependencies and their associated evolving risks. Threat models based on social influence techniques can be used to implement adversarial tactics analogous to the cyber kill chain and attested to within the MITRE ATT&CK for ICS framework including Initial Access, Persistence, Collection, and Impact. Furthermore, as with cyber disruptions, the impact of social influence threat models can have an asymmetric impact that is not spatially-localized. Finally, unlike cyber attacks with a reasonably short duration (ransomware takes days to months), social influence based attacks have the potential to persist for much longer as they are based on long-term strategic infrastructure investments within the private sector. Given the increased importance of electric vehicle charging stations as a long-term, strategic infrastructure investment within the Energy and Transportation Sectors, we provide initial results that compare the impact of a Loss of Availability (T0826) realized through cyber and social influence based threat models. The analysis employs techniques from automated reasoning and measures of network complexity to understand evolving dominance of EV payment and charging networks within geographic region of interest. Within this context, we compare the impact of a loss of availability due to ransomware versus that of loss of support due to a merger and acquisition. Results across several different metro areas will be provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Importance of Chemical Research to the U.S. Economy

Chemistry plays a pivotal role in the strength of the U.S. economy and the advancement of humankind. Chemists' achievements include life-saving pharmaceuticals, advanced energy solutions, improved agricultural productivity, and novel materials used in products from clothing to electronic devices. The many sectors reliant on the U.S. chemical economy account for about 25% of the U.S. GDP and support 4.1 million U.S. jobs. However, a new and evolving chemistry landscape requires changes with regard to funding, training, and a focus on integrating sustainability into manufacturing, product usage, and product disposal. This report identifies strategies and options for research investments that will support U.S. leadership while considering environmental sustainability and developing a diverse chemical economy workforce with equitable opportunities for all chemistry talent. The report recommends that funding agencies and philanthropic organizations who support the chemical sciences fund as large a breadth of fundamental research projects as possible. Chemical industry and their partners at universities, scientific research institutions, and national laboratories should align the objectives of fundamental research to directly assist with new practices toward environmental stewardship, sustainability, and clean energy. Additionally, the report recommends that funding agencies make substantial investment toward education research to enable innovative ways of teaching about emerging concepts, tools and technologies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗