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At least 955 records · Page 53

Predicting Power Outage During Extreme Weather with EAGLE-I and NWS Datasets

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods can significantly disrupt power grid systems, leading to electrical outages that result in inconvenience, economic losses, and life-threatening situations. There is a growing need for a robust and precise predictive model to forecast power outages, which will help prioritize emergency response before, during, and after extreme weather events. In this paper, we introduce machine-learning models that predict power outage risk at the state level during and after extreme weather events. We jointly utilized two publicly available datasets: the U.S. historical power outage data collected by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I™) system, and the National Weather Service historical weather alert data sets. We highlight our initial result and discuss future work aimed at enhancing the model's robustness and accuracy for real-world applications.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt)↗

Encoding an Oscillator into Many Oscillators

An outstanding challenge for quantum information processing using bosonic systems is Gaussian errors such as excitation loss and added thermal noise errors. Thus, bosonic quantum error correction is essential. Most bosonic quantum error correction schemes encode a finite-dimensional logical qubit or qudit into noisy bosonic oscillator modes. In this case, however, the infinite-dimensional bosonic nature of the physical system is lost at the error-corrected logical level. On the other hand, there are several proposals for encoding an oscillator mode into many noisy oscillator modes. However, these oscillator-into-oscillators encoding schemes are in the class of Gaussian quantum error correction. Therefore, these codes cannot correct practically relevant Gaussian errors due to the established no-go theorems that state that Gaussian errors cannot be corrected by using only Gaussian resources. Here, we circumvent these no-go results and show that it is possible to correct Gaussian errors by using Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) states as non-Gaussian resources. In particular, we propose a non-Gaussian oscillator-into-oscillators code, namely the GKP two-mode squeezing code, and demonstrate that it can quadratically suppress additive Gaussian noise errors in both the position and momentum quadratures except for a small sublogarithmic correction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our GKP two-mode squeezing code is near optimal in the weak noise limit by proving via quantum information theoretic tools that quadratic noise suppression is optimal when we use two physical oscillator modes. Lastly, in this work we show that our non-Gaussian oscillator encoding scheme can also be used to correct excitation loss and thermal noise errors, which are dominant error sources in many realistic bosonic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Expanded Capabilities and Opportunities for Virtual Beamline Code

In the 25 years since LLNL broke ground on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) - a cornerstone of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Stockpile Stewardship Program - the NIF and Photon Science (NIF&PS) Directorate has steadily pushed the boundaries of laser physics, nonlinear optics, and photonics in service of inertial confinement fusion experiments, and advanced photon sources development. Beyond the 192 beamlines of the primary laser facility with its world-record energy and fusion yields, NIF&PS capabilities have expanded to include chirped-pulse amplification, kilojoule petawatt-class short-pulse systems to generate hard x-ray radiographic probes, high-average power lasers as secondary sources for generation or wake field particle acceleration along directed energy applications, and other scientific pursuits. The Computing Directorate partners with NIF&PS on numerous projects and technologies from diagnostic measurements and high performance control systems to data analysis, information technology infrastructure, and scientific simulation code development. “This strong collaboration enables cutting-edge science, particularly with regard to physics-based modeling and simulation,” says physicist Jean-Michel Di Nicola. One crucial capability for NIF&PS is the Virtual Beamline (VBL) laser simulation code. It can model all the major laser physics and technology involved in the design optimization, commissioning, and operations of advanced laser architectures from tabletop to NIF-scale. VBL provides researchers with high-fidelity models and high-resolution calculations of laser performance predictions—including for the entire NIF laser system, the Advanced Radiographic Capability, parts of the High Repetition-Rate Advanced Petawatt Laser System laser delivered to the Czech Republic, and the Optical Science Laser. After more than two decades of experimentally verified physics and computing enhancements, this unique workhorse code is wrapping up another major milestone: migration from Java to C++ with a flurry of user interface and optimization features, as well as laser physics and high-resolution enhancements thanks to parallel execution on Livermore Computing platforms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗

A First Principles Approach to Spectral Phonon Transport in Heterostructures

Understanding thermal transport across interfaces which give rise to a thermal resistance (also known as Kapitza resistance) is a critical issue affecting the development of nanotechnologies. Much modern and emergent nanotechnology consist of adjacent materials, and phonon mediated heat transfer governs thermal behavior across internal interfaces in these devices. The physics of thermal transport in solids are governed both by phenomena occurring at the atomic scale and interactions with the material's microstructure. The forecasting of fundamental quantities such as temperature, heat flux and thermal conductivity typically employs the semi-classical Boltzmann transport equation to predict the macroscopic behavior of materials in terms of the microscopic dynamics of its heat carriers. Kapitza resistance was first discovered in liquid helium experiments and has led to a fundamental research thrust in micro and nano-scale heat transport, the behavior of thermal carriers across internal interfaces. Thermal interfacial resistance (TIR) is a widely studied phenomenon, first engaged by Swartz and Pohl through their development of the acoustic and diffuse mismatch methods, then continued through myriad efforts with varying methods and approaches in an attempt to resolve carrier behavior at thermal interfaces. Many of the fundamental approaches to TIR have been at the nanoscale, and research is conducted with molecular dynamics (MD) and density functional theory (DFT) methods. The limitations of these methods is system size; atomistic methods tend to be limited to system sizes of 100,000 atoms or less. Larger length-scale methods have also been pursued, based on the principles of acoustic or diffuse mismatch, but not all include simulation of TIR using a full phonon band spectrum, or temperature dependent methods. Our approach to enabling phonon transport in layered materials draws upon our previous work of demonstrating spectrally coupled phonon transport in homogeneous and heterogeneous materials. We use a semi-analytical approach in which the Bose-Einstein (B-E) statistics set the strength of the phonon radiance in a frequency group, but the B-E statistics are informed with information from the transport system. The B-E statistics in a single frequency group feels the influence of all the groups through the spatial temperature. We also include a new field term which is an indicator of the amount of non-equilibrium behavior of the phonon spectrum---this is added to the phonon source term in all groups to ensure closure and conservation of energy, as the phonon groups in the transport system and the analytical systems are coupled. This work builds upon our previous approach by adding a phonon coupling term at an internal interface, using the principles of the DMM through transmission and reflection coefficients. In this work, the coefficients are determined through computing a common temperature at the interface, influenced by the phonon band structure of both materials, in effect, providing mixing between the two material systems and using the common temperature to set the strength of the phonon radiance at the boundaries on either side of the interface. Our approach uses material properties computed along various crystallographic orientations, and while some isotropy is built into the interface condition, the material properties weight the phonon distributions in the proper crystalline direction. Greater resolution of phonon behavior in proximity to an interface, and more accurate predictions of TIR are obtained. While it is true the assumption of diffuse mismatch can yield inconsistent results compared to experiment especially at low temperatures, this work focuses on room temperature and beyond effects, for future applications in nuclear fuel, or thermoelectric devices; a modified mismatch approach may be feasible if applied properly. Additionally, our methods focus on bridging mesoscale to engineering scale

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantum Computing Algorithms and Applications for Coherent and Strongly Correlated Chemical Systems

This project advanced quantum algorithms, quantum information theory, strongly correlated electronic structure methods, molecular quantum materials, and exciton transport imaging in coherent condensed phase systems. Across the award period, the team developed new methods for open-quantum-system simulation, Hamiltonian learning, state tomography, reduced-density-matrix and contracted-quantum eigensolver approaches, and quantum diagnostics for device capability and openness.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Community Public Mobility Using On-Demand, Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: A Case Study in Downtown St. Louis, Missouri

Legacy fixed route transit systems designed to serve commuters struggle to provide efficient and effective service for short neighborhood trips and for population groups unable to access and egress transit stops using active modes (e.g., elderly, disabled). Neighborhood on-demand transit (ODT) services using low-speed electric vehicles (LSEV) are an innovative technological solution that can help fill this gap in service (e.g., short, high-frequency trips) for diverse populations and trip types. This study evaluated user characteristics and travel behavior for a neighborhood ODT service (using LSEVs) in downtown St. Louis, Missouri using responses from a community survey (n=244), ridership data, and vehicle trajectory information. A comparative analysis between neighborhood ODT, fixed route transit, and transportation network companies (TNC) was also conducted from the perspectives of total travel time, cost, and greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, the goal of the analysis was to motivate and inform holistic public mobility systems where different services are optimized to meet specific community needs. Findings indicate that the neighborhood ODT was effective at reaching diverse populations (elderly (20%), lower income (27%), and households with limited access to private vehicles (34%)). ODT reduced total travel time by 32% compared to fixed route transit, produced 2.4 - 4.3 times less greenhouse gas emissions per passenger mile (compared to transit and TNCs), and was more affordable (free to users) than alternative options ($1 for transit, $10-12 for TNCs). Overall satisfaction rates were high, with 80% of respondents rating the service a 4 or 5 out of 5.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generative Physics-Informed Neural Network Solving Multi-Scale and Multi-Phase Plasma Chemical Flow Field

Low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) are non-equilibrium systems with near-room-temperature gas and highly energetic electrons. This makes them ideal for delicate applications in biomedicine and semiconductor manufacturing, enabling processes like wound healing, sterilization, etching, and plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition without thermal damage. However, LTPs involve complex chemistries, with hundreds of species and thousands of reactions, complicating their diagnosis, prediction, and control. Conventional diagnostics, such as Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), and optical emission spectroscopy (OES), offer limited species detection, while mass spectrometry (MS) struggles with low-sensitivity species. Additionally, LTP simulations face multi-scale challenges, as macroscopic fluid dynamics and microscopic particle collisions operate on vastly different timescales. To address these issues, we developed an artificial intelligence (AI) based diagnostic system: a generative physics-informed neural network (PINN-Gen) that can predict spatially resolved species concentrations and temperatures in LTPs by integrating experimental data from planar LIF with microscopic plasma chemical kinetics and macroscopic fluid mechanics, including plasma-liquid interactions at the interface between two phases. PINN-Gen solves no equations but checks the errors of physical laws by substituting the output from neural network, and the comparison with the experimental results. Thus, it naturally avoids the multi-scale difficulty of numerical simulations and predicts the results of conventionally unsolvable multi-scale and multi-phase problems. The real-time prediction will be robust due to the physical information used in the training of such a neural network, and only very limited input of condition required due to its generative feature.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Community Public Mobility Using On-Demand, Low-Speed Electric Vehicles: A Case Study in Downtown St. Louis, Missouri

Legacy fixed route transit systems designed to serve commuters struggle to provide efficient and effective service for short neighborhood trips and for population groups unable to access and egress transit stops using active modes (e.g., elderly, disabled). Neighborhood on-demand transit (ODT) services using low-speed electric vehicles (LSEV) are an innovative technological solution that can help fill this gap in service (e.g., short, high-frequency trips) for diverse populations and trip types. This study evaluated user characteristics and travel behavior for a neighborhood ODT service (using LSEVs) in downtown St. Louis, Missouri using responses from a community survey (n=244), ridership data, and vehicle trajectory information. A comparative analysis between neighborhood ODT, fixed route transit, and transportation network companies (TNC) was also conducted from the perspectives of total travel time, cost, and greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, the goal of the analysis was to motivate and inform holistic public mobility systems where different services are optimized to meet specific community needs. Findings indicate that the neighborhood ODT was effective at reaching diverse populations (elderly (20%), lower income (27%), and households with limited access to private vehicles (34%)). ODT reduced total travel time by 32% compared to fixed route transit, produced 2.4 - 4.3 times less greenhouse gas emissions per passenger mile (compared to transit and TNCs), and was more affordable (free to users) than alternative options ($1 for transit, $10-12 for TNCs). Overall satisfaction rates were high, with 80% of respondents rating the service a 4 or 5 out of 5.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

System Administrator Training Item #25928

External and internal cyber-attacks pose an extreme risk to government, businesses and individuals. System attacks, resulting in compromised information are occurring more frequently and the threat to the Laboratory has never been higher. This training has been developed to help you better understand your role as a System Administrator and recognize your responsibilities within the Laboratory’s Information Security (Cyber) Program and has been revised to address newly implemented ACD 470.6 restrictions for mobile devices in secure areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MetaboDirect: an analytical pipeline for the processing of FT-ICR MS-based metabolomic data

Background: Microbiomes are now recognized as the main drivers of ecosystem function ranging from the oceans and soils to humans and bioreactors. However, a grand challenge in microbiome science is to characterize and quantify the chemical currencies of organic matter (i.e., metabolites) that microbes respond to and alter. Critical to this has been the development of Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS), which has drastically increased molecular characterization of complex organic matter samples, but challenges users with hundreds of millions of data points where readily available, user-friendly, and customizable software tools are lacking. Results: Here, we build on years of analytical experience with diverse sample types to develop MetaboDirect, an open-source, command-line-based pipeline for the analysis (e.g., chemodiversity analysis, multivariate statistics), visualization (e.g., Van Krevelen diagrams, elemental and molecular class composition plots), and presentation of direct injection high-resolution FT-ICR MS data sets after molecular formula assignment has been performed. When compared to other available FT-ICR MS software, MetaboDirect is superior in that it requires a single line of code to launch a fully automated framework for the generation and visualization of a wide range of plots, with minimal coding experience required. Among the tools evaluated, MetaboDirect is also uniquely able to automatically generate biochemical transformation networks (ab initio) based on mass differences (mass difference network-based approach) that provide an experimental assessment of metabolite connections within a given sample or a complex metabolic system, thereby providing important information about the nature of the samples and the set of microbial reactions or pathways that gave rise to them. Finally, for more experienced users, MetaboDirect allows users to customize plots, outputs, and analyses. Conclusion: Application of MetaboDirect to FT-ICR MS-based metabolomic data sets from a marine phage-bacterial infection experiment and a Sphagnum leachate microbiome incubation experiment showcase the exploration capabilities of the pipeline that will enable the research community to evaluate and interpret their data in greater depth and in less time. It will further advance our knowledge of how microbial communities influence and are influenced by the chemical makeup of the surrounding system. The source code and User’s guide of MetaboDirect are freely available through (https://github.com/Coayala/MetaboDirect) and (https://metabodirect.readthedocs.io/en/latest/), respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Real-Time Operations Manual for the IEEE 118 Bus Transmission Model

This document presents a sample operations manual for the IEEE 118 Bus Model, which is a synthetic test case developed in 1962 from a section of the transmission grid operated by American Electric Power (AEP). The model is one of the most used synthetic test cases for development of power system applications and is referenced by over 9000 papers. However, the model lacks any context for use with real-time energy management system (EMS) applications, including common considerations, such as generator ramp rates, reactive capabilities, operating limits, and other information typically used by power system operators for real-time decision making. This manual divides the IEEE 118 Bus Model into three operating areas, defines various operating limits, and sets recommended operating procedures for responding to a few types of emergency operating conditions. The manual can be used in support of a wide variety of human-in-the-loop evaluation methodologies for new advanced power applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Universal Input-Output Model of GFM Functions and Data-Driven Verification Methods

An overarching goal of the UNiversal Interoperability for grid-Forming Inverters (UNIFI) Consortium is to develop vendor agnostic specifications and guidelines that ensure interoperability of gridforming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs) without requiring vendors or system operators to reveal proprietary information. These UNIFI principles and specifications are envisioned to apply to a wide range of technologies and systems. The initial work on the UNIFI principles and specifications has focused on performance requirements and high-level aspirational principles outlined in [1]. Going forward, a key question is how to translate such high-level requirements and principles into rigorous specifications that can be enforced and validated for a wide range of IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A call to standardize metrics for monitoring baleen whales near marine construction activities

Effective monitoring is necessary to protect marine mammal species during the construction of offshore infrastructure. The tools for detecting or monitoring marine mammals span traditional (e.g., visual observers, optical cameras), to newer (e.g., passive acoustic monitoring, infrared cameras, tags), and emerging (e.g., satellite imagery, environmental DNA, dimethyl sulfide concentration) technologies. Some are better suited for use during offshore development; however, peer-reviewed literature does not typically evaluate and report on the performance of these various technologies. We define a minimum set of metrics related to efficacy (i.e., confusion matrix, precision and recall, probability of missed mitigation), detection range (i.e., maximum and reliable detection range, spatial resolution), and data delivery (i.e., detection latency, system reliability, temporal resolution) that we recommend are needed to assess the utility of monitoring technologies for this purpose. Following a literature review of relevant studies, we highlight which publications reported these metrics and used multiple technologies to compare relative performance. We also emphasize the benefits of multi-modal approaches and recommend performance assessments through modeling or large-scale collaborative field testing. These metrics will standardize data collection, reporting, and analysis; promote consistent and comparable results; and foster collaboration among developers, regulatory agencies, and scientists. This may lead to the co-development of technology that achieves multiple goals, has greater application, and can answer research questions while collecting data to fulfill permitting requirements. These metrics may also inform decisions on what systems regulatory agencies might consider using and reduce monitoring costs, which is critical to support the marine sector's rapid growth alongside marine mammal conservation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multi-Tiered Estimation for Correlation Spectroscopy in 3D (MTECS3D) v0.1

This innovative software estimates rotational diffusion coefficients of particles from X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) data of monodispersed particle systems. It is the first method capable of extracting rotational diffusion information from three-dimensional particle systems using XPCS. Using the angular-temporal cross-correlation of the XPCS images, this software is able to estimate the rotational diffusion coefficients with only a few percent relative errors while requiring minimal prior knowledge of particle structures. This software enhances XPCS analysis capabilities, allowing researchers to study translational and rotational Brownian dynamics of particles in suspension across various temporal and spatial scales.

Hu, Zixi↗

Outage Cause Classification of Power Distribution Systems with Machine Learning and Real-World Data

Power distribution systems are geographically dispersed by nature. It may be affected by various factors, such as vegetation, weather, animal and human behaviors. Present response procedures to an outage event massively rely on expert experience and thus tend to be time-consuming. Automatic outage event detection and classification will help to reduce the responding and restoration time. However, this issue is less addressed with existing research done in this area. In this applied research, a set of waveform pre-processing techniques are first proposed to prepare the waveform data for being used as inputs to the classification algorithm. Further, a machine learning-based algorithm is proposed to classify the outage events according to their root causes, e.g. tree contact, animal contact, lightning, etc. Available data include three phase current & voltage waveforms and contextual information during the distribution system outages. The proposed machine learning algorithm takes the current and voltage waveforms as direct inputs in search of features that humans are unable to capture. Real data provided by a distribution company in the East Tennessee region is used to test the proposed pre-processing techniques and the classification algorithm.

Sun, Haoyuan↗

Thermal Cooling Water Datasets for Electric Sector Modeling

This spreadsheet contains data inputs associated with representations of water (i.e., use, supply, costs) for thermo-electric based production. Values in this spreadsheet have been used to support multiple transmission-related planning studies, using models such as Regional Energy Deployment System Model (ReEDS). More information about associated studies can be found in Miara et al., 2019 (DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.9b03037); Cohen et al., 2022 (DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119193); and Cohen et al., 2024 (DOI TBD). Within these transmission-related studies, the values present in this spreadsheet are assigned for simulation of both existing units as well as new capacity build-outs. A summary of worksheets' content as well as associated sources are captured below.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗