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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C. Andrews↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Cloud‐Base Ice Precipitation Properties Retrieved Using Bayesian Inference

Abstract Cloud‐climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long‐lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud‐base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. Here I describe an inverse model for the estimation of cloud base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, using the synthesis of ground‐based radar and lidar measurements. By leveraging a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm as the core of the inverse model, a wide range of particle size distributions are sampled, and different combinations of ice habit models are examined, both of which are typically fixed in other retrieval methods. Results show intriguing links between different cloud base thermodynamic and ice precipitation properties. Apparent ice number concentration enhancements at temperatures of −5 and −15°C suggest possible secondary ice production (SIP). The analysis alludes to an overestimation of SIP occurrence and intensity, especially in studies relying only on radar or lidar measurements. Finally, reflectivity‐dependent ice precipitation rate and ice water content parameterizations are presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Convection from Hemispherical and Conical Model Ice Roughness Elements in Stagnation Region Flows

To improve ice accretion prediction codes, more data regarding ice roughness and its effects on convective heat transfer are required. The Vertical Icing Studies Tunnel (VIST) at NASA Glenn Research was used to model realistic ice roughness in the stagnation region of a NACA 0012 airfoil. In the VIST, a test plate representing the leading 2% chord of the airfoil was subjected to flows of 7.62 m/s (25 ft/s), 12.19 m/s (40 ft/s), and 16.76 m/s (55 ft/s). The test plate was fitted with multiple surfaces or sets of roughness panels, each with a different representation of ice roughness. The sets of roughness panels were constructed using two element distribution patterns that were created based on a laser scan of an iced airfoil acquired in the Icing Research Tunnel at NASA Glenn. For both roughness patterns, surfaces were constructed using plastic hemispherical elements, plastic conical elements, and aluminum conical elements. Infrared surface thermometry data from tests run in the VIST were used to calculate area averaged heat transfer coefficient values. The values from the roughness surfaces were compared to the smooth control surface, showing convective enhancement as high as 400% in some cases. The data gathered during this study will ultimately be used to improve the physical modeling in LEWICE or other ice accretion codes and produce predictions of in-flight ice accretion on aircraft surfaces with greater confidence.

Icing Physics↗
NASA NTRS2016

Bimodal SLD Ice Accretion on a NACA 0012 Airfoil Model

This presentation describes the results of ice accretion measurements on a NACA 0012 airfoil model, from the NASA Icing Research Tunnel, using an icing cloud composed of a bimodal distribution of Supercooled Large Droplets. The data consists of photographs, laser scans of the ice surface, and measurements of the mass of ice for each icing condition. The results of ice shapes accumulated as a result of exposure to an icing cloud with a bimodal droplet distribution were compared to the ice shapes resulting from an equivalent cloud composed of a droplet distribution with a standard bell curve shape.

aircraft icing↗
NASA NTRS2019

A 40-Y Record Reveals Gradual Antarctic Sea Ice Increases Followed by Decreases at Rates Far Exceeding the Rates Seen in the Arctic

Following over 3 decades of gradual but uneven increases in sea ice coverage, the yearly average Antarctic sea ice extents reached a record high of 12.8 by 10 (sup 6) square kilometers in 2014, followed by a decline so precipitous that they reached their lowest value in the 40-year 1979-2018 satellite multichannel passive-microwave record, 10.7 by 10 (sup 6) square kilometers, in 2017. In contrast, it took the Arctic sea ice cover a full 3 decades to register a loss that great in yearly average ice extents. Still, when considering the 40-year record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 plus or minus 5,300 square kilometers per year, this trend is only 50 percent of the trend for 1979-2014, before the precipitous decline. Four of the 5 sectors into which the Antarctic sea ice cover is divided all also have 40-year positive trends that are well reduced from their 2014-2017 values. The one anomalous sector in this regard,the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has a 40-year negative trend, with the yearly average ice extents decreasing overall in the first 3 decades, reaching a minimum in 2007, and exhibiting an overall upward trend since 2007 (i.e., reflecting a reversal in the opposite direction from the other 4 sectors and the Antarctic sea ice cover as a whole).

Satellite Earth Observations↗
NASA NTRS2019

A 40-y record reveals gradual Antarctic sea ice increases followed by decreases at rates far exceeding the rates seen in the Arctic

Following over 3 decades of gradual but uneven increases in sea ice coverage, the yearly average Antarctic sea ice extents reached a record high of 12.8 × 106(6) sq. km in 2014, followed by a decline so precipitous that they reached their lowest value in the 40-y 1979– 2018 satellite multichannel passive-microwave record, 10.7 × 10^(6) sq. km, in 2017. In contrast, it took the Arctic sea ice cover a full 3 decades to register a loss that great in yearly average ice extents. Still, when considering the 40-y record as a whole, the Antarctic sea ice continues to have a positive overall trend in yearly average ice extents, although at 11,300 ± 5,300 sq. km/y, this trend is only 50% of the trend for 1979–2014, before the precipitous decline. Four of the 5 sectors into which the Antarctic sea ice cover is divided all also have 40-y positive trends that are well reduced from their 2014–2017 values. The one anomalous sector in this regard, the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has a 40-y negative trend, with the yearly average ice extents decreasing overall in the first 3 decades, reaching a minimum in 2007, and exhibiting an overall upward trend since 2007 (i.e., reflecting a reversal in the opposite direction from the other 4 sectors and the Antarctic sea ice cover as a whole).

sea ice↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The two radiative states of the Arctic atmosphere and their impacts on the surface energy budget of sea ice

The surface energy budget (SEB) is a central regulator of Arctic climate and sea ice evolution, yet its processes remain poorly constrained due to sparse observations and complex, coupled surface-atmosphere interactions. This study leverages year-long measurements from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) to provide the most comprehensive assessment to date of the central Arctic SEB and its modulation by atmospheric variability. Ship- and ice-based observations from October 2019 to September 2020 were used to directly measure or tightly constrain each term of the SEB, leading to exceptional energetic closure with the seasonal snow and ice mass balance. The analysis reveals strong seasonal transitions in atmosphere-surface energy transfer that are modulated by the atmospheric state and constrained by the ability of the surface temperature to respond. Classification of the atmosphere into its two dominant radiative states—the semi-transparent (ST) and opaque (OP)—highlights the central role of synoptic-scale variability in clouds. The ST atmospheric state dominated the long winter ice growth season, with limited cloudiness supporting persistent surface radiative cooling and ice growth. The OP state, associated with liquid-containing or thick ice clouds, became dominant in spring, with the combination of increased solar heating and cloud surface longwave warming driving ice and snow melt. Eddy covariance versus bulk approaches for deriving surface turbulent heat fluxes provide vastly different perspectives on the role of turbulence in modulating the SEB. These results establish a high-quality benchmark dataset for Arctic SEB studies and demonstrate how the balance of atmospheric radiative states exerts a first-order control on the annual evolution of the sea ice. The findings have broad implications for advancing observing technologies, understanding Arctic amplification, improving climate models, and predicting future sea ice change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sea-Ice Effects on the Alaskan Wave Climate

This study investigates the uncertainty of wave resource assessments due to sea ice in the nearshore region of Alaska using an innovative approach of combining remotely sensed data and a third-generation phase-averaged wave model. Modeling analysis focused on winter months, when high wave energy is present along with sea ice. This study includes recommendations to improve the accuracy of wave resource assessments and optimize marine and hydrokinetic device siting with consideration of sea-ice effects. Additional recommendations, based on preliminary sea-ice information in Cook Inlet, Alaska, are provided for a trajectory analysis of drifting sea ice and a collision risk assessment of sea ice and tidal turbines. The outcome of this project will provide valuable information about the level of sea-ice impact on the accuracy of wave resource assessments in the Alaska nearshore region, and of sea-ice collision risk with MHK devices and ocean observation systems during winter months when sea ice is present.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1996

Development of Three-Dimensional Flow Code Package to Predict Performance and Stability of Aircraft with Leading Edge Ice Contamination

In the work reported herein, a simplified, uncoupled, zonal procedure is utilized to assess the capability of numerically simulating icing effects on a Boeing 727-200 aircraft. The computational approach combines potential flow plus boundary layer simulations by VSAERO for the un-iced aircraft forces and moments with Navier-Stokes simulations by NPARC for the incremental forces and moments due to iced components. These are compared with wind tunnel force and moment data, supplied by the Boeing Company, examining longitudinal flight characteristics. Grid refinement improved the local flow features over previously reported work with no appreciable difference in the incremental ice effect. The computed lift curve slope with and without empennage ice matches the experimental value to within 1%, and the zero lift angle agrees to within 0.2 of a degree. The computed slope of the un-iced and iced aircraft longitudinal stability curve is within about 2% of the test data. This work demonstrates the feasibility of a zonal method for the icing analysis of complete aircraft or isolated components within the linear angle of attack range. In fact, this zonal technique has allowed for the viscous analysis of a complete aircraft with ice which is currently not otherwise considered tractable.

Aircraft icing↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessment of Ice Shape Roughness Using a Self-Orgainizing Map Approach

Self-organizing maps are neural-network techniques for representing noisy, multidimensional data aligned along a lower-dimensional and nonlinear manifold. For a large set of noisy data, each element of a finite set of codebook vectors is iteratively moved in the direction of the data closest to the winner codebook vector. Through successive iterations, the codebook vectors begin to align with the trends of the higher-dimensional data. Prior investigations of ice shapes have focused on using self-organizing maps to characterize mean ice forms. The Icing Research Branch has recently acquired a high resolution three dimensional scanner system capable of resolving ice shape surface roughness. A method is presented for the evaluation of surface roughness variations using high-resolution surface scans based on a self-organizing map representation of the mean ice shape. The new method is demonstrated for 1) an 18-in. NACA 23012 airfoil 2 AOA just after the initial ice coverage of the leading 5 of the suction surface of the airfoil, 2) a 21-in. NACA 0012 at 0AOA following coverage of the leading 10 of the airfoil surface, and 3) a cold-soaked 21-in.NACA 0012 airfoil without ice. The SOM method resulted in descriptions of the statistical coverage limits and a quantitative representation of early stages of ice roughness formation on the airfoils. Limitations of the SOM method are explored, and the uncertainty limits of the method are investigated using the non-iced NACA 0012 airfoil measurements.

Icing↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA Team 2 Sea Ice Concentration Algorithm Retrieval Uncertainty

Satellite microwave radiometers are widely used to estimate sea ice cover properties (concentration, extent, and area) through the use of sea ice concentration (IC) algorithms. Rare are the algorithms providing associated IC uncertainty estimates. Algorithm uncertainty estimates are needed to assess accurately global and regional trends in IC (and thus extent and area), and to improve sea ice predictions on seasonal to interannual timescales using data assimilation approaches. This paper presents a method to provide relative IC uncertainty estimates using the enhanced NASA Team (NT2) IC algorithm. The proposed approach takes advantage of the NT2 calculations and solely relies on the brightness temperatures (TBs) used as input. NT2 IC and its associated relative uncertainty are obtained for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) TB. NT2 IC relative uncertainties estimated on a footprint-by-footprint swath-by-swath basis were averaged daily over each 12.5-km grid cell of the polar stereographic grid. For both hemispheres and throughout the year, the NT2 relative uncertainty is less than 5%. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is low in the interior ice pack, and it increases in the marginal ice zone up to 5%. In the Northern Hemisphere, areas with high uncertainties are also found in the high IC area of the Central Arctic. Retrieval uncertainties are greater in areas corresponding to NT2 ice types associated with deep snow and new ice. Seasonal variations in uncertainty show larger values in summer as a result of melt conditions and greater atmospheric contributions. Our analysis also includes an evaluation of the NT2 algorithm sensitivity to AMSR-E sensor noise. There is a 60% probability that the IC does not change (to within the computed retrieval precision of 1%) due to sensor noise, and the cumulated probability shows that there is a 90% chance that the IC varies by less than +/-3%. We also examined the daily IC variability, which is dominated by sea ice drift and ice formation/melt. Daily IC variability is the highest, year round, in the MIZ (often up to 20%, locally 30%). The temporal and spatial distributions of the retrieval uncertainties and the daily IC variability is expected to be useful for algorithm intercomparisons, climate trend assessments, and possibly IC assimilation in models.

Sea Ice↗
NASA NTRS2014

Laboratory Investigations of the Complex Refractory Organic Material Produced from Irradiation of Pluto Ice Analogs

Much of Pluto's surface consists of N2 ice with smaller amounts of CH4 and CO ices. Despite the low temperature (approximately 45K), chemistry can be driven in the surface ices by radiation processing such as cosmic ray bombardment. When cosmic rays strike the surface, much of their energy is dispersed in the form of secondary electrons, which in turn drive much of the resulting chemical reactions. Laboratory experiments designed to simulate the conditions on these icy bodies may provide insight into this chemistry. Significant progress has been made in the laboratory toward understanding the smaller, simple compounds produced in the solid phase by radiation processing of (N2, CH4, CO) ices (Bohn et al. 1994; Moore & Hudson 2003; Hodyss et al. 2011; Kim and Kaiser 2012). Recently Materese et al. (2014) used a variety of techniques to better characterize the refractory materials produced from the UV photo-irradiation of N2:CH4:CO ices. However, because Pluto's atmosphere is optically thick to Lyman-alpha UV radiation it is important to re-examine the results using an alternate radiation source. Our latest work has consisted of the analysis of refractory materials produced from the electron bombardment of low temperature N2(‐), CH4(‐), and CO(‐)containing ices (100:1:1). The ice mixture was chosen to be analogous to the known surface ices on Pluto and the radiation source was chosen to mimic the secondary electrons produced by cosmic rays bombardment. The residues were studied using multiple chemical techniques including, infrared (IR) spectroscopy, X‐ray absorption near‐edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy, and gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC‐MS). The organic residues produced in these experiments can be seen as an analog for the refractory component of the surface of Pluto, and are compared with the residues previously obtained from UV photo‐irradiation. UV and near‐ IR spectroscopy of the surfaces of Pluto and Charon during the encounter with NASA's New Horizons spacecraft in 2015, will give the first close‐up measurements of ices and their photoproducts. Laboratory measurements and experiments will provide a better context for the data returned by the spacecraft.

organics↗
NASA NTRS2014

The 1500m South Pole Ice Core: Recovering a 40 Ka Environmental Record

Supported by the US National Science Foundation, a new 1500 m, approximately 40 ka old ice core will be recovered from South Pole during the 2014/15 and 2015/16 austral summer seasons using the new US Intermediate Depth Drill. The combination of low temperatures, relatively high accumulation rates and low impurity concentrations at South Pole will yield detailed records of ice chemistry and trace atmospheric gases. The South Pole ice core will provide a climate history record of a unique area of the East Antarctic plateau that is partly influenced by weather systems that cross the West Antarctic ice sheet. The ice at South Pole flows at approximately 10m a(exp-1) and the South Pole ice-core site is a significant distance from an ice divide. Therefore, ice recovered at depth originated progressively farther upstream of the coring site. New ground-penetrating radar collected over the drill site location shows no anthropogenic influence over the past approximately 50 years or upper 15 m. Depth-age scale modeling results show consistent and plausible annual-layer thicknesses and accumulation rate histories, indicating that no significant stratigraphic disturbances exist in the upper 1500m near the ice-core drill site.

South Pole↗
NASA NTRS2015

Convective Enhancement of Icing Roughness Elements in Stagnation Region Flows

To improve existing ice accretion simulation codes, more data regarding ice roughness and its effects on convective heat transfer are required. To build on existing research on this topic, this study used the Vertical Icing Studies Tunnel (VIST) at NASA Glenn Research to model realistic ice roughness in the stagnation region of a NACA 0012 airfoil. Using the VIST, a test plate representing the leading 2% chord of the airfoil was subjected to flows of 7.62 m/s (25 ft/s), 12.19 m/s (40 ft/s), and 16.76 m/s (55 ft/s). The test plate was fitted with 3 surfaces, each with a different representation of ice roughness: 1) a control surface with no ice roughness, 2) a surface with ice roughness with element height scaled by 10x and streamwise rough zone width from the stagnation point scaled by 10x, and 3) a surface with ice roughness with element height scaled by 10x and streamwise rough zone width from the stagnation point scaled by 25x. Temperature data from the tests were recorded using an infrared camera and thermocouples imbedded in the test plate. From the temperature data, a convective heat transfer coefficient map was created for each case. Additional testing was also performed to validate the VIST's flow quality. These tests included five-hole probe and hot-wire probe velocity traces to provide flow visualization and to study boundary layer formation on the various test surfaces. The knowledge gained during the experiments will help improve ice accretion codes by providing heat transfer coefficient validation data and by providing flow visualization data helping understand current and future experiments performed in the VIST.

Icing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Midlatitude Ice-Rich Ground on Mars: An Important Target for Science and In Situ Resource Utilization on Human Missions

The region of ROI is characterized by proven presence of near surface ground ice and numerous periglacial features. Midlatitude ground ice on Mars is of significant scientific interest for understanding the history and evolution of ice stability on Mars, the impact that changes in insolation produced by variations in Mars’ orbital parameters has on the regions climate, and could provide human exploration with a reliable and plentiful in situ resource. For both science and exploration, assessing the astrobiological potential of the ice is important in terms of (1) understanding the potential for life on Mars and (2) evaluating the presence of possible biohazards in advance of human exploration. Heldmann et al. (2014) studied locations on Mars in the Amazonis Planitia region where near surface ground ice was exposed by new impact craters (Byrne et al. 2009). The study examined whether sites in this region were suitable for human exploration including reviewing the evidence for midlatitude ground ice, discussing the possible explanations for its occurrence, assessing its potential habitability for modern life, and evaluating the resource potential. They systematically analyzed remote-sensing data sets to identify a viable landing site. Five sites where ground ice was exposed were examined with HiRise imaging and were classified according to (1) presence of polygons as a proxy for subsurface ice, (2) presence and abundance of rough topographic obstacles (e.g., large cracks, cliffs, uneven topography), (3) rock density, (4) presence and abundance of large boulders, and (5) presence of craters. A suitable landing site was found having ground ice at only 0.15m depth, and no landing site hazards within a 25 km landing ellipse. This paper presents results of that study and examines the relevance of this ROI to the workshop goals.

Human Missions↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 deg S. Over the 1988-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.

Sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2015

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

Ice sheet reconstruction↗