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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research

Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and its response to climate change are not well understood, which undermines predictions and decision-making for climate mitigation and adaptation. As a phenomenon with a timescale at the interface of weather and climate, blocking interacts with various elements of the climate system and connects short-term weather events to long-term climate extremes. Understanding atmospheric blocking is crucial, given that climate change may impact its frequency, duration, and geographic distribution. This perspective discusses new experimental approaches to improve our understanding of this important subject.

Wang, Lei [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning earthquake ground motions via conditional generative modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.

geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth’s energy imbalance in recent decades

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF ACI ), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback. Here, we estimate shortwave ERF ACI using satellite observations and show its importance as a contributor to the EEI increase between 2003 and 2023. ERF ACI exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.33 Wm −2 /decade averaged over oceans between 60°S and 60°N. The increasing trend of ERF ACI stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is of similar magnitude as the combined instantaneous forcing trend from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions. Our results may reduce the gap between the simulated and observed shortwave contribution to EEI trends while implying a weak shortwave cloud feedback. They also suggest a stronger aerosol forcing than the multi-model mean.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Instantaneous tracking of earthquake growth with elastogravity signals

Rapid and reliable estimation of large earthquake magnitude (above 8) is key to mitigating the risks associated with strong shaking and tsunamis. Standard early warning systems based on seismic waves fail to rapidly estimate the size of such large earthquakes. Geodesy-based approaches provide better estimations, but are also subject to large uncertainties and latency associated with the slowness of seismic waves. Recently discovered speed-of-light prompt elastogravity signals (PEGS) have raised hopes that these limitations may be overcome, but have not been tested for operational early warning. Here we show that PEGS can be used in real time to track earthquake growth instantaneously after the event reaches a certain magnitude. We develop a deep learning model that leverages the information carried by PEGS recorded by regional broadband seismometers in Japan before the arrival of seismic waves. After training on a database of synthetic waveforms augmented with empirical noise, we show that the algorithm can instantaneously track an earthquake source time function on real data. Our model unlocks ‘true real-time’ access to the rupture evolution of large earthquakes using a portion of seismograms that is routinely treated as noise, and can be immediately transformative for tsunami early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calcium dissolution in bridgmanite in the Earth’s deep mantle

Accurate knowledge of the mineralogy is essential for understanding the lower mantle, which represents more than half of Earth'svolume. CaSiO 3 perovskite is believed to be the third-most-abundant mineral throughout the lower mantle, following bridgmanite and ferropericlase. Here we experimentally show that the calcium solubility in bridgmanite increases steeply at about 2,300 kelvin and above 40 gigapascals to a level sufficient for a complete dissolution of all CaSiO 3 component in pyrolite into bridgmanite, resulting in the disappearance of CaSiO 3 perovskite at depths greater than about 1,800 kilometres along the geotherm. Hence we propose a change from a two-perovskite domain (TPD; bridgmanite plus CaSiO 3 perovskite) at the shallower lower mantle to a single-perovskite domain (SPD; calcium-rich bridgmanite) at the deeper lower mantle. Iron seems to have a key role in increasing the calcium solubility in bridgmanite. The temperature-driven nature can cause large lateral variations in the depth of the TPD-to-SPD change in response to temperature variations (by more than 500 kilometres). Furthermore, the SPD should have been thicker in the past when the mantle was warmer. Our finding requires revision of the deep-mantle mineralogy models and will have an impact on our understanding of the composition, structure, dynamics and evolution of the region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anomalous thermal transport under high pressure in boron arsenide

High pressure represents extreme environments and provides opportunities for materials discovery. Thermal transport under high hydrostatic pressure has been investigated for more than 100 years and all measurements of crystals so far have indicated a monotonically increasing lattice thermal conductivity. Here we report in situ thermal transport measurements in the newly discovered semiconductor crystal boron arsenide, and observe an anomalous pressure dependence of the thermal conductivity. We use ultrafast optics, Raman spectroscopy and inelastic X-ray scattering measurements to examine the phonon bandstructure evolution of the optical and acoustic branches, as well as thermal conductivity under varied temperatures and pressures up to 32 gigapascals. Using atomistic theory, we attribute the anomalous high-pressure behaviour to competitive heat conduction channels from interactive high-order anharmonicity physics inherent to the unique phonon bandstructure. Our study verifies ab initio theory calculations and we show that the phonon dynamics—resulting from competing three-phonon and four-phonon scattering processes—are beyond those expected from classical models and seen in common materials. In conclusion, this work uses high-pressure spectroscopy combined with atomistic theory as a powerful approach to probe complex phonon physics and provide fundamental insights for understanding microscopic energy transport in materials of extreme properties.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Opening doors to physical sample tracking and attribution in Earth and environmental sciences

Physical samples and their associated data and metadata underpin scientific discoveries across disciplines and can enable new science when appropriately archived. However, there are significant gaps in current practices and infrastructure that prevent accurate provenance tracking, reproducibility, and attribution. For most samples, descriptive metadata are often sparse, inaccessible, or absent. Samples and associated data and metadata may also be scattered across numerous physical collections, data repositories, laboratories, data files, and papers with no clear linkage or provenance tracking as new information is generated over time. The Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) Physical Samples Curation Cluster has therefore developed guidance for scientific authors on ‘Publishing Open Research Using Physical Samples.’ This involved synthesizing existing practices, gathering community feedback, and assessing real-world examples. We identified improvements needed to enable authors to efficiently cite and link Earth science samples and related data, and track their use. Our goal is to help improve discoverability, interoperability, and reuse of physical samples, and associated data and metadata. Though primarily focused on the needs of Earth and environmental sciences, these guidelines are broadly applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Annealing of ion tracks in apatite under pressure characterized in situ by small angle x-ray scattering

Fission track thermochronology is routinely used to investigate the thermal history of sedimentary basins, as well as tectonic uplift and denudation rates. While the effect of temperature on fission track annealing has been studied extensively to calibrate the application of the technique, the effect of pressure during annealing is generally considered to be negligible. However, a previous study suggested elevated pressure results in a significantly different annealing behaviour that was previously unknown. Here, we present a method to study track annealing in situ under high pressure by using synchrotron- based small angle x-ray scattering (SAXS). To simulate fission tracks in a controlled environment, ion tracks were created in apatite from Durango, Mexico using 2 GeV Au or Bi ions provided by an ion accelerator facility. Samples were annealed at 250°C at approximately 1 GPa pressure using diamond anvil cells (DAcs) with heating capabilities. Additional in situ annealing experiments at ambient pressure and temperatures between 320 and 390°C were performed for comparison. At elevated pressure a significantly accelerated annealing rate of the tracks was observed compared with annealing at ambient pressure. However, when extrapolated to geologically relevant temperatures and pressures, the effects become very small. The measurement methodology presented provides a new avenue to study materials behaviour in extreme environments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Dissolved O 2 in Bulk Aqueous Solutions and Porous Media Using NMR Relaxometry

Effects of dissolved paramagnetic oxygen (O 2 ) in water on 1 H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill (CPMG) experiments is evaluated at a 1 H Larmor frequency of 2 MHz. Dissolution of O 2 into water significantly reduces the 1 H transverse relaxation coefficient (T 2 ). For deoxygenated water, T 2 is 3388 ms, water at ambient atmospheric conditions (7.4 mg/L O2) exhibits a T2 of 2465 ms, and dissolution of 2710 mg/L O 2 further reduces T 2 to 36 ms. The results were fit with an empirical model to facilitate prediction of T 2 times for bulk water as a function of paramagnetic oxygen concentrations in solution. Dissolved O 2 also greatly influences 1 H NMR CPMG experiments of confined water in a model system composed of Berea sandstone. For this system, 90 mg/L O 2 in H 2 O enhances T 2 relaxation of bulk water such that the relaxation time is comparable to physically confined water in the sandstone pores. Given the sensitivity of NMR T 2 coefficients to paramagnetic oxygen, low-field NMR-based characterization of fluid and porous media structure requires control of dissolved oxygen, as geospatial variation in the partial pressure of O 2 alone is expected to perturb fluid and pore relaxation times by up to 60 and 36%, respectively.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Connectivity-informed drainage network generation using deep convolution generative adversarial networks

Abstract Stochastic network modeling is often limited by high computational costs to generate a large number of networks enough for meaningful statistical evaluation. In this study, Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks (DCGANs) were applied to quickly reproduce drainage networks from the already generated network samples without repetitive long modeling of the stochastic network model, Gibb’s model. In particular, we developed a novel connectivity-informed method that converts the drainage network images to the directional information of flow on each node of the drainage network, and then transforms it into multiple binary layers where the connectivity constraints between nodes in the drainage network are stored. DCGANs trained with three different types of training samples were compared; (1) original drainage network images, (2) their corresponding directional information only, and (3) the connectivity-informed directional information. A comparison of generated images demonstrated that the novel connectivity-informed method outperformed the other two methods by training DCGANs more effectively and better reproducing accurate drainage networks due to its compact representation of the network complexity and connectivity. This work highlights that DCGANs can be applicable for high contrast images common in earth and material sciences where the network, fractures, and other high contrast features are important.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permeability-controlled migration of induced seismicity to deeper depths near Venus in North Texas

Abstract Migration of seismic events to deeper depths along basement faults over time has been observed in the wastewater injection sites, which can be correlated spatially and temporally to the propagation or retardation of pressure fronts and corresponding poroelastic response to given operation history. The seismicity rate model has been suggested as a physical indicator for the potential of earthquake nucleation along faults by quantifying poroelastic response to multiple well operations. Our field-scale model indicates that migrating patterns of 2015–2018 seismicity observed near Venus, TX are likely attributed to spatio-temporal evolution of Coulomb stressing rate constrained by the fault permeability. Even after reducing injection volumes since 2015, pore pressure continues to diffuse and steady transfer of elastic energy to the deep fault zone increases stressing rate consistently that can induce more frequent earthquakes at large distance scales. Sensitivity tests with variation in fault permeability show that (1) slow diffusion along a low-permeability fault limits earthquake nucleation near the injection interval or (2) rapid relaxation of pressure buildup within a high-permeability fault, caused by reducing injection volumes, may mitigate the seismic potential promptly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooling-induced reactivation of distant faults during long-term geothermal energy production in hot sedimentary aquifers

Deep geothermal energy (DGE) represents an opportunity for a sustainable and carbon-free energy supply. One of the main concerns of DGE is induced seismicity that may produce damaging earthquakes, challenging its widespread exploitation. It is widely believed that the seismicity risk can be controlled by using doublet systems circulating water to minimize the injection-induced pressure changes. However, cold water reinjection may also give rise to thermal stresses within and beyond the cooled region, whose potential impacts on fault reactivation are less well understood. Here, we investigate by coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling the processes that may lead to fault reactivation in a hot sedimentary aquifer (HSA) in which water is circulated through a doublet. We show that thermal stresses are transmitted much ahead of the cooled region and are likely to destabilize faults located far away from the doublet. Meanwhile, the fault permeability mainly controls the fault reactivation timing, which entails the importance of employing appropriate characterization methods. This investigation is crucial for understanding the mechanisms controlling induced seismicity associated with DGE in a HSA and allows the success of future DGE projects.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pore-scale observations of natural hydrate-bearing sediments via pressure core sub-coring and micro-CT scanning

Abstract Both intra-pore hydrate morphology and inter-pore hydrate distribution influence the physical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments, yet there has been no pore-scale observations of hydrate habit under pressure in preserved pressure core samples so far. We present for the first time a pore-scale micro-CT study of natural hydrate-bearing cores that were acquired from Green Canyon Block 955 in UT-GOM2-1 Expedition and preserved within hydrate pressure–temperature stability conditions throughout sub-sampling and imaging processes. Measured hydrate saturation in the sub-samples, taken from units expected to have in-situ saturation of 80% or more, ranges from 3 ± 1% to 56 ± 11% as interpreted from micro-CT images. Pore-scale observations of gas hydrate in the sub-samples suggest that hydrate in silty sediments at the Gulf of Mexico is pore-invasive rather than particle displacive, and hydrate particles in these natural water-saturated samples are pore-filling with no evidence of grain-coating. Hydrate can form a connected 3D network and provide mechanical support for the sediments even without cementation. The technical breakthrough to directly visualize particle-level hydrate pore habits in natural sediments reported here sheds light on future investigations of pressure- and temperature-sensitive processes including hydrate-bearing sediments, dissolved gases, and other biochemical processes in the deep-sea environment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Sentinel-1 and GRACE satellite data to monitor the hydrological variations within the Tulare Basin, California

Abstract Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cubic-meter scale laboratory fault re-activation experiments to improve the understanding of induced seismicity risks

Abstract To understand fluid induced seismicity, we have designed a large-scale laboratory experiment consisting of a one-cubic-meter sandstone with an artificial fault cut and fluid-injection boreholes. The sandstone block is assembled in a true triaxial loading frame and equipped with 38 piezoelectric sensors to locate and characterise acoustic emission events. The differential stress on the artificial fault is increased in stages to bring it towards a critically stressed state. After each stage of differential stress increase, fluids are injected at low pressures through boreholes to test the potential of fault re-activation. In addition, a high-pressure injection was conducted that created a hydraulic fracture from the injection borehole towards the artificial fault. The newly generated fluid pathway resulted in an activation of the complete block through a stick–slip movement. We compare acoustic emission measurements from the laboratory experiment with seismicity observations from the field-scale CO 2 injection at Decatur, Illinois, U.S., and conclude that the existence of fluid pathways plays a decisive role for the potential of induced seismicity.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting induced seismicity in Oklahoma using machine learning methods

Oklahoma earthquakes in the past decade have been mostly associated with wastewater injection. Here we use a machine learning technique—the Random Forest to forecast induced seismicity rate in Oklahoma based on injection-related parameters. We split the data into training (2011.01–2015.05) and test (2015.06–2020.12) periods. The model forecasts seismicity rate during the test period based on input features, including operational parameters (injection rate and pressure), geological information (depth to basement), and modeled pore pressure and poroelastic stress. The results show overall good match with observed seismicity rate (adjusted R 2 of 0.75). The model shows that pore pressure rate and poroelastic stressing rates are the two most important features in forecasting. The absolute values of pore pressure and poroelastic stress, and the injection rate itself, are less important than the stressing rates. These findings further emphasize that temporal changes of stressing rates would lead to significant changes in seismicity rates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of source-free DAS logging for next-generation borehole imaging

Characterizing and monitoring geologic formations around a borehole are crucial for energy and environmental applications. However, conventional wireline sonic logging usually cannot be used in high-temperature environments nor is the tool feasible for long-term monitoring. We introduce and evaluate the feasibility of a source-free distributed-acoustic-sensing (DAS) logging method based on borehole DAS ambient noise. Our new logging method provides a next-generation borehole imaging tool. The tool is source free because it uses ever-present ambient noises as sources and does not need a borehole sonic source that cannot be easily re-inserted into a borehole after well completion for time-lapse monitoring. The receivers of our source-free DAS logging tool are fiber optic cables cemented behind casing, enabling logging in harsh, high-temperature environments, and eliminating the receiver repeatability issue of conventional wireline sonic logging for time-lapse monitoring. We analyze a borehole DAS ambient noise dataset to obtain root-mean-squares (RMS) amplitudes and use these amplitudes to infer subsurface elastic properties. We find that the ambient noise RMS amplitudes correlate well with anomalies in conventional logging data. The source-free DAS logging tool can advance our ability to characterize and monitor subsurface geologic formations in an efficient and cost-effective manner, particularly in high-temperature environments such as geothermal reservoirs. Further validation of the source-free DAS logging method using other borehole DAS ambient noise data would enable the new logging tool for wider applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗