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NASA NTRS2020

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

There is strong evidence climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi‐model ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature‐sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.

drought↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selection of Next Priority IMPACT Medical Conditions Based on Available Terrestrial and Spaceflight Data

BACKGROUND: As the era of exploration class missions begins, identification of medical conditions that may occur and require management becomes essential for the modeling of medical risk. To this end, NASA has developed IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces), a suite of tools to assist in assessment of medical risk analysis. It has incorporated an initial list of the 120 conditions of highest concern, labeled the IMPACT condition list 1.0 (ICL 1.0). This abstract describes a method for prioritizing the 92 conditions included on the Proposed Future Conditions List (PFCL) for inclusion in future iterations of the ICL. OVERVIEW: To construct the Prioritized Proposed Future Conditions List (P-PFCL), each condition on the PFCL was scored as “low,” “medium,” or “high” on each of four variables: incidence, likelihood of significant task impairment, diagnostic and treatment complexity, and treatment futility. Qualitative assessment using clinical judgement was utilized to score complexity, futility, and likelihood of impairment. Incidence was assessed quantitatively using spaceflight data and/or analog populations where available then assigned a score using established cutoffs. Logarithmic numerical values were assigned to each category label. A Prioritization Score was generated for each condition by taking the product of incidence and likelihood of task impairment (risk) divided by the product of complexity and futility (difficulty of care), with higher values corresponding to higher priority for future inclusion in the ICL. DISCUSSION: The described methods allow for the generation of a ranked P-PFCL to act as a decision support tool for selection of the next generation of modeled medical conditions. Some of the conditions ranked highly on the P-PFCL include EVA-related upper and lower extremity sprain/strain, iron deficiency, delirium, and hypertension, among others. While this effort does not attempt to quantify the absolute risk associated with each condition, it does attempt to semi-quantitatively estimate the risk of each condition relative to the other possible conditions. This tool in concert with subject matter expert opinion could optimize the future use of limited resources thereby producing a more accurate medical risk model, which will be essential to the upcoming exploration class missions.

Michael Pohlen↗
NASA NTRS2022

STITCH: A Subgrid-Scale Model for Energy Buildup in the Solar Corona

The solar corona routinely exhibits explosive activity, in particular coronal mass ejections and their accompanying eruptive ares, that have global-scale consequences. These events and their smaller counterparts, coronal jets, originate in narrow, sinuous lament channels. The key processes that form and evolve the channels operate on still smaller spatial scales and much longer time scales, culminating in a vast separation of characteristic lengths and times that govern these explosive phenomena. In this article, we describe implementation and tests of an efficient subgrid-scale model for generating eruptive structures in magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) coronal simulations. STITCH {STatistical InjecTion of Condensed Helicity { is a physics-based, reduced representation of helicity condensation: a process wherein small-scale vortical surface convection forms ubiquitous current sheets, and pervasive reconnection across the sheets mediates an inverse cascade of magnetic helicity and free energy, thereby forming the lament channels. We have developed a formalism, STITCH, that abstracts these complex processes into a single term in Ohm's law and the induction equation that directly injects tangential magnetic flux into the low corona. We show that our approach is in very good agreement with a full helicity-condensation calculation that treats all of the dynamics explicitly, while enabling substantial reductions in temporal duration and spatial resolution. In addition, we illustrate the flexibility of STITCH at forming localized lament channels and at energizing complex surface flux distributions that have sinuous boundaries. STITCH is simple to implement and computationally ecient, making it a powerful technique for physics-based modeling of solar eruptive events.

J T Dahlin↗
NASA NTRS2002

Tracking Avian Reservoirs of Arboviruses using Remote Sensing and Radiotelemetry

Encephalitis is caused by a virus that is transmitted by mosquitoes between mammalian hosts. The virus is closely related to the West Nile virus (WNV), which started in New York in 1999, and has since spread to 25 states. Like encephalitis, WNV is vectored by mosquitoes, and the primary hosts are birds; humans are accidental, or'dead-end' hosts. Very little is understood about the behavior of these bird populations, and how they intersect - both in time and in space - with mosquito populations. Exploring these relationships is the first step in developing models for encephalitis and WNV transmission risk. This project combines remotely sensed data with radiotelemetry to create a spatiotemporal map of encephalitis viral activity in bird and mosquito populations in the Sacramento Valley of California. Specifically, remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies were used to characterize habitats utilized by both avian viral reservoirs and the mosquitoes that vector encephalitis. Radiotelemetry and serosurveys (blood) were then used to spatially and temporally track the patterns of infection. The project uses Landsat ETM+ multitemporal satellite data to characterize habitats utilized by both birds and the mosquito vectors. Mist nets were used to sample members of individual flocks of blackbirds and cowbirds over a period of several months; these birds were then bled to assess their viral status, banded, and fitted with transmitters. Radiotelemetry was used to spatially and temporally track the distribution of banded birds and their associated flocks. The movement of these indicator flocks were compared with the location of remotely sensed (adult and larval) mosquito habitats to determine the intersection of bird's and vectors; this is key in understanding where and when transmission occurs from bird to bird, as well as from bird to mammal, via mosquito. The relationships found during the project are being used to generate a model of encephalitis transmission risk in California.

Beck, L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Particle Interaction Physics Model Formulation for Plume-Surface Interaction Erosion and Cratering

The Predictive Simulation Capability development team of the STMD Game Changing Development sponsored PSI project is implementing computational simulation capability for the efficient and accurate prediction of Plume-Surface Interaction induced surface erosion and cratering in Martian and Lunar environments. The status of the Focus Area 3 of the PSI project in the generation and efficient application of accurate soil particle composition modeling in the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) computational framework is presented. The process of constitutive closure model database generation using DEM particle interaction modeling for capturing the effects of irregular particle shape and poly-disperse mixture distribution effects is outlined. This capability has now been ported to NASA supercomputer assets and NASA engineers successfully demonstrated technology and skillset transfer in model generation for spherical and irregularly shaped, mono-disperse and bi-disperse mixture compositions. Assessment of the computational efficiency and practicality of the academic serially executed DEM tools on NASA supercomputers identified the need to migrate to a DEM framework capable of performing parallel simulations in a simultaneous process orchestrated in an automated setup, execution, database extraction, and dataset delivery ready for application simulations. The LIGGGHTS DEM toolset has been selected as the most suitable tool to migrate the DEM simulations. Once the soil model generation process is implemented, models capturing the shape and poly-dispersity effects will be generated to perform much refined validation simulations against the experiments performed under the PSI project. The application readiness of the soil models currently operational in GGFS was presented for the example of a full scale, 3-D simulation of the plume induced erosion and crater formation of the Apollo LM at an elevation of 5m above ground in a low pressure, near vacuum background.

Peter A Liever↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Particle Interaction Physics Model Formulation for Plume-Surface Interaction Erosion and Cratering

The Predictive Simulation Capability development team of the STMD Game Changing Development sponsored PSI project is implementing computational simulation capability for the efficient and accurate prediction of Plume-Surface Interaction induced surface erosion and cratering in Martian and Lunar environments. The status of the Focus Area 3 of the PSI project in the generation and efficient application of accurate soil particle composition modeling in the Gas-Granular Flow Solver (GGFS) computational framework is presented. The process of constitutive closure model database generation using DEM particle interaction modeling for capturing the effects of irregular particle shape and poly-disperse mixture distribution effects is outlined. This capability has now been ported to NASA supercomputer assets and NASA engineers successfully demonstrated technology and skillset transfer in model generation for spherical and irregularly shaped, mono-disperse and bi-disperse mixture compositions. Assessment of the computational efficiency and practicality of the academic serially executed DEM tools on NASA supercomputers identified the need to migrate to a DEM framework capable of performing parallel simulations in a simultaneous process orchestrated in an automated setup, execution, database extraction, and dataset delivery ready for application simulations. The LIGGGHTS DEM toolset has been selected as the most suitable tool to migrate the DEM simulations. Once the soil model generation process is implemented, models capturing the shape and poly-dispersity effects will be generated to perform much refined validation simulations against the experiments performed under the PSI project. The application readiness of the soil models currently operational in GGFS was presented for the example of a full scale, 3-D simulation of the plume induced erosion and crater formation of the Apollo LM at an elevation of 5m above ground in a low pressure, near vacuum background.

Peter A Liever↗
NASA NTRS1991

Program Generates Images Of Solid Surfaces

Solid Surface Modeler (SSM) computer program generates three-dimensional computer models of solid surfaces for use in visual analysis and animation. Provides advanced functions, including Constructive Solid Geometry, Skin Construction, Tube Construction, Material Property Editing, and Texture Map Tools. Allows user to change such attributes as color, reflectivity, smoothing, and position of object easily. Model saved in ASCII or binary format for use in another program or saved in edit format for reloading in SSM. Written in standard C.

Goza, Sharon P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Progress Toward Generation of a Navier-Stokes Database for a Harrier in Ground Effect

The Harrier YAV-8B aircraft is capable of vertical and short-field take-off and landing (V/STOL) by directing its four exhaust nozzles toward the ground, or conventional flight by rotating its nozzles into a horizontal position. The British Royal Air Force and the United States Marine Corps have used this aircraft for more than 30 years to provide a quick reaction time for troop support, and reduce the need for long runways. The success of this powered-lift (PL) vehicle has also prompted the more recent design of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). However there are significant safety issues that must be addressed when operating a PL vehicle in close proximity to the ground. Hot Gas Ingestion (HGI) by the inlets can result in a rapid loss of powered lift; and high-speed jet flows along the ground plane can induce low pressures underneath the vehicle, causing a 'suck-down' effect. Under these conditions, departure from controlled flight may occur. Moreover, unsteady ground vortices and jet fountains can affect the aircraft,s controllability and its proximity to ground troops. The viscous, time-dependent flow fields of PL vehicles are difficult to accurately and efficiently predict using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). A number of researchers have used the time-dependent Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations to compute flows for single and multiple jets in a cross-flow. A few have added some geometric complexity to the problem by computing flows for jet-augmented delta wings near a ground plane. Smith et.al. computed for the first time a single RANS solution about a simplified Harrier. This geometry included a fuselage, wing, leading edge root extension (LERX), inlets, and exhaust nozzles. All of these investigations cite two practical problems with computing these flows: 1) the need for improved solution accuracy; and, 2) the need for faster solution methods. We view the need for faster solution methods as key to improving the solution accuracy and making this class of computation more routine. One can hardly refine grids, explore the use of advanced turbulence models, and generate databases when it takes weeks of dedicated computer time for a single solution. Chaderjian, Ahmad, Pandya, and Murman have focused on reducing the time-to-solution for this very difficult and complex problem through process automation and exploitation of parallel computing. They began with the Harrier geometry reported, and added a deflected wing flap and empennage for greater realism. To date more than 80 solutions have been carried out. This paper will describe this process and progress made in reducing the time required to generate a simple longitudinal force and moment database for a Harrier in ground effect. It shows a typical snap-shot from an unsteady streakline animation, where fluid particles are colored by temperature. The ground vortex and a jet-fountain vortex are highlighted. It also shows a similar streakline image, where HGI occurs due to the vehicle in close proximity to the ground. It is show the mean lift coefficient as a function of angle of attack and height. The angle of attack range was 4 deg less than or = alpha less than or = 10 deg with an increment of 1 degree, and the height range was 10 ft less than or = h less than or = 30ft with an increment of 5 feet. This 35 solution database was extended to over 2500 cases using a monotone cubic-spline interpolation procedure. The suck-down effect (reduction of lift near the ground) is highlighted in the figure. The "cushion effect," the conventional reduction of lift as the vehicle moves out of ground effect, is also indicated. All 35 RANS solutions were obtained using 952 Silicon Graphics Origin 2000 and 3000 processors in dedicated mode for one week. Typically, 112 processors were assigned to each case. Some other cases used fewer processors to utilize all available CPUS. The final paper will report on the automation of the solution process, including: grid generation, job monitoring, solution completion criteria, and post processing. Moreover, improvements in parallel efficiency for a dual time-step algorithm for the RANS equations will also be presented. Results will be discussed in detail using unsteady streakline flow visualization to correlate unsteady flow structures with dominant aerodynamic frequencies. The stability derivatives, CL, and CL, will also be presented.

Chaderjian, Neal M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Design Calculations for Thermoelectric Generators

Nine simplified analytic models based on average properties accurately predict heat rates for silicon/germanium thermoelectric generators. Solutions from simplified models were compared with those obtained using sophisticated numerical analysis. Maximum errors in calculated heat rate range from about 4 percent to about 0.2 percent. Models also used to calculate power delivered to load and thermodynamic efficiency.

Zeldin, B.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Photoionization Modeling of Oxygen K Absorption in the Interstellar Medium:

We present detailed analyses of oxygen K absorption in the interstellar medium (ISM) using four high-resolution Chandra spectra toward the X-ray low-mass binary XTE J1817-330. The 11-25 Angstrom broadband is described with a simple absorption model that takes into account the pile-up effect and results in an estimate of the hydrogen column density. The oxygen K-edge region (21-25 Angstroms) is fitted with the physical warmabs model, which is based on a photoionization model grid generated with the xstar code with the most up-to-date atomic database. This approach allows a benchmark of the atomic data which involves wavelength shifts of both the K lines and photoionization cross sections in order to fit the observed spectra accurately. As a result we obtain a column density of N(sub H) = 1.38 +/- 0.01 × 10(exp 21) cm(exp −2); an ionization parameter of log xi = −2.70 +/- 0.023; an oxygen abundance of A(sub O) = 0.689 (+0.015/−0.010); and ionization fractions of O(sub I)/O = 0.911, O(sub II)/O = 0.077, and O(sub III)/O = 0.012 that are in good agreement with results from previous studies. Since the oxygen abundance in warmabs is given relative to the solar standard of Grevesse & Sauval, a rescaling with the revision by Asplund et al. yields A(sub O) = 0.952(+0.020/−0.013), a value close to solar that reinforces the new standard.We identify several atomic absorption lines-K(alpha), K(beta), and K(gamma) in O(sub I) and O(sub II) and K(alpha) in O(sub III), O(sub VI), and O(sub VII)-the last two probably residing in the neighborhood of the source rather than in the ISM. This is the first firm detection of oxygen K resonances with principal quantum numbers n greater than 2 associated with ISM cold absorption.

oxygen↗
NASA NTRS1971

An optimal system design process for a Mars roving vehicle

The problem of determining the optimal design for a Mars roving vehicle is considered. A system model is generated by consideration of the physical constraints on the design parameters and the requirement that the system be deliverable to the Mars surface. An expression which evaluates system performance relative to mission goals as a function of the design parameters only is developed. The use of nonlinear programming techniques to optimize the design is proposed and an example considering only two of the vehicle subsystems is formulated and solved.

Pavarini, C.↗
NASA NTRS1972

An adaptive replacement algorithm for paged-memory computer systems.

A general class of adaptive replacement schemes for use in paged memories is developed. One such algorithm, called SIM, is simulated using a probability model that generates memory traces, and the results of the simulation of this adaptive scheme are compared with those obtained using the best nonlookahead algorithms. A technique for implementing this type of adaptive replacement algorithm with state of the art digital hardware is also presented.

Thorington, J. M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Optimum Three Impulse Trajectory Generator with Patched Conic Trajectory Model

Optimal multi-impulse trajectories were investigated as a nominal about which asymptotic expansion was used to obtain approximations of optimal low thrust trajectories. The work consisted of the analysis and description of an optimal 3-impulse trajectory program. A patched-conic trajectory model was specifically designed for compatibility with the subsequent addition of the low thrust expansion approximation.

Payne, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1973

System cost/performance analysis (study 2.3). Volume 1: Executive summary

The relationships between performance, safety, cost, and schedule parameters were identified and quantified in support of an overall effort to generate program models and methodology that provide insight into a total space vehicle program. A specific space vehicle system, the attitude control system (ACS), was used, and a modeling methodology was selected that develops a consistent set of quantitative relationships among performance, safety, cost, and schedule, based on the characteristics of the components utilized in candidate mechanisms. These descriptive equations were developed for a three-axis, earth-pointing, mass expulsion ACS. A data base describing typical candidate ACS components was implemented, along with a computer program to perform sample calculations. This approach, implemented on a computer, is capable of determining the effect of a change in functional requirements to the ACS mechanization and the resulting cost and schedule. By a simple extension of this modeling methodology to the other systems in a space vehicle, a complete space vehicle model can be developed. Study results and recommendations are presented.

Kazangey, T.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Parametric analysis of ATM solar array.

The paper discusses the methods used for the calculation of ATM solar array performance characteristics and provides the parametric analysis of solar panels used in SKYLAB. To predict the solar array performance under conditions other than test conditions, a mathematical model has been developed. Four computer programs have been used to convert the solar simulator test data to the parametric curves. The first performs module summations, the second determines average solar cell characteristics which will cause a mathematical model to generate a curve matching the test data, the third is a polynomial fit program which determines the polynomial equations for the solar cell characteristics versus temperature, and the fourth program uses the polynomial coefficients generated by the polynomial curve fit program to generate the parametric data.

Singh, B. K.↗