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DOE OSTI2020

Future Vision for Autonomous Ocean Observations

Autonomous platforms already make observations over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, measuring salinity, temperature, nitrate, pressure, oxygen, biomass; and many other parameters. However, the observations are not comprehensive. Future autonomous systems need to be more affordable, more modular, more capable and easier to operate. Creative new types of platforms and new compact, low power, calibrated and stable sensors are under development to expand autonomous observations. Communications and recharging need bandwidth and power which can be supplied by standardized docking stations. In situ power generation will also extend endurance for many types of autonomous platforms, particularly autonomous surface vehicles. Standardized communications will improve ease of use, interoperability, and enable coordinated behaviors. Improved autonomy and communications will enable adaptive networks of autonomous platforms. Improvements in autonomy will have three aspects: hardware, control, and operations. As sensors and platforms have more onboard processing capability and energy capacity, more measurements become possible. Control systems and software will have the capability to address more complex states and sophisticated reactions to sensor inputs, which allows the platform to handle a wider variety of circumstances without direct operator control. Operational autonomy is increased by reducing operating costs. To maximize the potential of autonomous observations new standards and best practices are needed. In some applications, focus on common platforms and volume purchases could lead to significant cost reductions. Cost reductions could enable order-of-magnitude increases in platform operations and increase sampling resolution for a given level of investment. Energy harvesting technologies should be integral to the system design, for sensors, platforms, vehicles, and docking stations. Connections are needed between the marine energy and ocean observing communities to coordinate among funding sources, researchers, and end users. Regional teams should work with global organizations such as IOC/GOOS in governance development. International networks such as EGO for the emerging glider operations should also provide a forum for addressing governance. Networks of multiple vehicles can improve operational efficiencies and transform operational patterns. There is a need to develop operational architectures at regional and global scales to provide a backbone for active networking of autonomous platforms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2000

Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1999: An Assessment Report

This document is issued in response to the Clean Air Act Amendment of 1990, Public Law 101-549, which mandates that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other key agencies submit triennial reports to the Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency. NASA specifically is charged with the responsibility of reporting on the state of our knowledge of the Earth's upper atmosphere, particularly the stratosphere. Part l of this report summarizes the objectives, status, and accomplishments of the research tasks supported under NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Program and Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Program for the period of 1997-1999. Part 2 (this document) is a compilation of several scientific assessments, reviews, and summaries. Section B (Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1998), Section C (a summary of the 1998 Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate, SPARC, ozone trends report), Section D (the policymakers summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere), and Section E (the executive summary of the NASA Assessment of the Effects of High-Speed Aircraft in the Stratosphere: 1998) are summaries of the most recent assessments of our current understanding of the chemical composition and the physical structure of the stratosphere, with particular emphasis on how the abundance and distribution of ozone is predicted to change in the future. Section F (the executive summary of NASA's Second Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements, M&M 11) and Section G (the end-of-mission statement for the Photochemistry of ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer, POLARIS, campaign) describe the scientific results for a comprehensive modeling intercomparison exercise and an aircraft and balloon measurement campaign, respectively. Section H (Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling: Update to Evaluation Number 12 of the NASA Panel for Data Evaluation) highlights the latest of NASA's reviews of this important aspect of the atmospheric sciences. A list of contributors to each of the included documents appears in Section I of this report.

Kurylo, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The HERschel Inventory of the Agents of Galaxy Evolution in the Magellanic Clouds, a HERschel Open Time Key Program

We present an overview or the HERschel Inventory of The Agents of Galaxy Evolution (HERITAGE) in the Magellanic Clouds project, which is a Herschel Space Observatory open time key program. We mapped the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) at 100, 160, 250, 350, and 500 micron with the Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver (SPIRE) and Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) instruments on board Herschel using the SPIRE/PACS parallel mode. The overriding science goal of HERITAGE is to study the life cycle of matter as traced by dust in the LMC and SMC. The far-infrared and submillimeter emission is an effective tracer of the interstellar medium (ISM) dust, the most deeply embedded young stellar objects (YSOs), and the dust ejected by the most massive stars. We describe in detail the data processing, particularly for the PACS data, which required some custom steps because of the large angular extent of a single observational unit and overall the large amount of data to be processed as an ensemble. We report total global fluxes for LMC and SMC and demonstrate their agreement with measurements by prior missions. The HERITAGE maps of the LMC and SMC are dominated by the ISM dust emission and bear most resemblance to the tracers of ISM gas rather than the stellar content of the galaxies. We describe the point source extraction processing and the critetia used to establish a catalog for each waveband for the HERITAGE program. The 250 micron band is the most sensitive and the source catalogs for this band have approx. 25,000 objects for the LMC and approx. 5500 objects for the SMC. These data enable studies of ISM dust properties, submillimeter excess dust emission, dust-to-gas ratio, Class 0 YSO candidates, dusty massive evolved stars, supemova remnants (including SN1987A), H II regions, and dust evolution in the LMC and SMC. All images and catalogs are delivered to the Herschel Science Center as part of the conummity support aspects of the project. These HERITAGE images and catalogs provide an excellent basis for future research and follow up with other facilities.

AGENTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling noise in global Mølmer-Sørensen interactions applied to quantum approximate optimization

Many-qubit Mølmer-Sørensen (MS) interactions applied to trapped ions offer unique capabilities for quantum information processing, with applications including quantum simulation and the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA). Here, we develop a physical model to describe many-qubit MS interactions under four sources of experimental noise: vibrational mode frequency fluctuations, laser power fluctuations, thermal initial vibrational states, and state preparation and measurement errors. The model parametrizes these errors from simple experimental measurements, without free parameters. Herein, we validate the model in comparison with experiments that implement sequences of MS interactions on two 171 Yb + ions. The model shows reasonable agreement after several MS interactions as quantified by the reduced chi-squared statistic $χ^{2}_{red}$≈2. As an application we examine MaxCut QAOA experiments on three and six ions. The experimental performance is quantified by approximation ratios that are 91% and 83% of the optimal theoretical values. Our model predicts $0.93^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ and $0.95^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, respectively, with disagreement in the latter value attributable to secondary noise sources beyond those considered in our analysis. With realistic experimental improvements to reduce measurement error and radial trap frequency variations, the model achieves approximation ratios that are 99% of the optimal. Incorporating these improvements into future experiments is expected to reveal new aspects of noise for future modeling and experimental improvements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1991

The fossil record of evolution: Data on diversification and extinction

Understanding of the evolution of complex life, and of the roles that changing terrestrial and extraterrestrial environments played in life's history, is dependent upon synthetic knowledge of the fossil record. Paleontologists have been describing fossils for more that two centuries. However, much of this information is dispersed in monographs and journal articles published throughout the world. Over the past several years, this literature was surveyed, and a data base on times of origination and extinction of fossil genera was compiled. The data base, which now holds approximately 32,000 genera, covers all taxonomic groups of marine animals, incorporates the most recent taxonomic assignments, and uses a detailed global time framework that can resolve originations and extinctions to intervals averaging three million years in duration. These data can be used to compile patterns of global biodiversity, measure rates of taxic evolution, and test hypotheses concerning adaptive radiations, mass extinctions, etc. Thus far, considerable effort was devoted to using the data to test the hypothesis of periodicity of mass extinction. Rates of extinction measured from the data base have also been used to calibrate models of evolutionary radiations in marine environments. It was observed that new groups, or clades of animals (i.e., orders and classes) tend to reach appreciable diversity first in nearshore environments and then to radiate in more offshore environments; during decline, these clades may disappear from the nearshore while persisting in offshore, deep water habitats. These observations have led to suggestions that there is something special about stressful or perturbed environments that promotes the evolution of novel kinds of animals that can rapidly replace their predecessors. The numerical model that is being investigated to study this phenomenon treats environments along onshore-offshore gradients as if they were discrete habitats. Other aspects of this investigation are presented.

Sepkoski, J. J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mathematical Modeling of Electrodynamics Near the Surface of Earth and Planetary Water Worlds

An interesting feature of planetary bodies with hydrospheres is the presence of an electrically conducting shell near the global surface. This conducting shell may typically lie between relatively insulating rock, ice, or atmosphere, creating a strong constraint on the flow of large-scale electric currents. All or parts of the shell may be in fluid motion relative to main components of the rotating planetary magnetic field (as well as the magnetic fields due to external bodies), creating motionally-induced electric currents that would not otherwise be present. As such, one may expect distinguishing features in the types of electrodynamic processes that occur, as well as an opportunity for imposing specialized mathematical methods that efficiently address this class of application. The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss such specialized methods. Specifically, thin-shell approximations for both the electrodynamics and fluid dynamics are combined to derive simplified mathematical formulations describing the behavior of these electric currents as well as their associated electric and magnetic fields. These simplified formulae allow analytical solutions featuring distinct aspects of the thin-shell electrodynamics in idealized cases. A highly efficient numerical method is also presented that is useful for calculations under inhomogeneous parameter distributions. Finally, the advantages as well as limitations in using this mathematical approach are evaluated. This evaluation is presented primarily for the generic case of bodies with water worlds or other thin spherical conducting shells. More specific discussion is given for the case of Earth, but also Europa and other satellites with suspected oceans.

Tyler, Robert H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Best practice reporting guideline for building stock energy models

Buildings are responsible for 38% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, therefore, pathways to reduce their impact are crucial to achieve climate targets. Building stock energy models (BSEMs) have long been used as a tool to assess the current and future energy demand and environmental impact of building stocks. BSEMs have become more and more complex and are often tailored to case-specific datasets, which results in a high degree of heterogeneity among models. This heterogeneity, together with a lack of consistency in the reporting hinders the understanding of these models and, thereby, an accurate interpretation and comparison of results. In this paper we present a reporting guideline in order to improve reporting practices of BSEMs. The guideline was developed by experts as part of the IEA's Annex 70 and builds upon reporting guidelines from other fields. It consists of five topics (Overview, Model Components, Input and Output, Quality Assurance and Additional Information), which are further subdivided into subtopics. We explain which model aspects should be described in each subtopic, and provide illustrative examples on how to apply the guideline. In closing, the reporting guideline is consistent with the model classification framework and online model registry also developed in the Annex.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Status Report on the ART-GCR CMVB and CNWG International Collaborations

This work presents the numerical model for the high temperature test reactor (HTTR) loss of forced cooling (LOFC) experiment with the INL codes Griffin, BISON, and RELAP-7, based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. Promising results were obtained, with the overall behavior of the reactor successfully captured. Changes in the heat transfer coupling, as compared to the fiscal year (FY)-21 model, enabled drastic improvement of the steady-state solution, both in terms of computational time and global energy discrepancies. The former was reduced by a factor of roughly 60, whereas the latter decreased from 11% to less than 2%. Furthermore, the discrepancy in the steady-state multiplication factor was improved from +2,300 and +2,900 pcm (for the 30 and 9 MW cases) to -700 and +1,200 pcm, respectively, and now falls well within the large measurement uncertainties stemming from graphite impurities. Validation of the Monte Carlo model used to generate cross sections was also performed against available measurements. Though significant, the discrepancies remain acceptable overall in light of the large uncertainty. Numerous improvements are still needed to better compare with the experiment involving the 9 MW case and to instill greater confidence in the model’s ability to accurately predict the 30 MW behavior. Specifically, the power levels predicted by the 9 MW transient simulation following re-criticality remain low, pointing to an underestimation of the passive cooling of the core. A key aspect of future work will be to better understand the flow pattern during the LOFC event, particularly to determine if natural or forced convection is occurring inside the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). More generally, additional validation data would be immensely useful for further enhancing the numerical model and better matching the experiments. In addition, a more sophisticated thermal-hydraulics model that simulates all the channels as a single system model should be considered to take into account the rest of the primary loop. Finally, even if the results are in better agreement with the experiments, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification will be necessary to evaluate the model uncertainty.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest

Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Isolating contour information from arbitrary images

Aspects of natural vision (physiological and perceptual) serve as a basis for attempting the development of a general processing scheme for contour extraction. Contour information is assumed to be central to visual recognition skills. While the scheme must be regarded as highly preliminary, initial results do compare favorably with the visual perception of structure. The scheme pays special attention to the construction of a smallest scale circular difference-of-Gaussian (DOG) convolution, calibration of multiscale edge detection thresholds with the visual perception of grayscale boundaries, and contour/texture discrimination methods derived from fundamental assumptions of connectivity and the characteristics of printed text. Contour information is required to fall between a minimum connectivity limit and maximum regional spatial density limit at each scale. Results support the idea that contour information, in images possessing good image quality, is (centered at about 10 cyc/deg and 30 cyc/deg). Further, lower spatial frequency channels appear to play a major role only in contour extraction from images with serious global image defects.

Jobson, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

The arabidopsis thaliana AGRAVITROPIC 1 gene encodes a component of the polar-auxin-transport efflux carrier

Auxins are plant hormones that mediate many aspects of plant growth and development. In higher plants, auxins are polarly transported from sites of synthesis in the shoot apex to their sites of action in the basal regions of shoots and in roots. Polar auxin transport is an important aspect of auxin functions and is mediated by cellular influx and efflux carriers. Little is known about the molecular identity of its regulatory component, the efflux carrier [Estelle, M. (1996) Current Biol. 6, 1589-1591]. Here we show that mutations in the Arabidopsis thaliana AGRAVITROPIC 1 (AGR1) gene involved in root gravitropism confer increased root-growth sensitivity to auxin and decreased sensitivity to ethylene and an auxin transport inhibitor, and cause retention of exogenously added auxin in root tip cells. We used positional cloning to show that AGR1 encodes a putative transmembrane protein whose amino acid sequence shares homologies with bacterial transporters. When expressed in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, AGR1 promotes an increased efflux of radiolabeled IAA from the cells and confers increased resistance to fluoro-IAA, a toxic IAA-derived compound. AGR1 transcripts were localized to the root distal elongation zone, a region undergoing a curvature response upon gravistimulation. We have identified several AGR1-related genes in Arabidopsis, suggesting a global role of this gene family in the control of auxin-regulated growth and developmental processes.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2023

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

Doppler lidar, aerosols, convection↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

Venkatraman, Padmavathi [Illinois U., Urbana; KIPA↗

DOE OSTI2023

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land-surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land-atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow-to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land-atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1996

On the Capabilities of Using AIRSAR Data in Surface Energy/Water Balance Studies

The capabilities of using remote sensing data, and in particular multifrequency/multipolarization SAR data, like AIRSAR, for the retrieval of surface parameters, depend considerably on the specificity of each application. The potentials, and limitations, of SAR data in ecological investigations are well known. Because the chemistry is a major component in such studies and because of the almost lacking chemical information at the wavelengths of SAR data, the capabilities of using SAR-derived information in such studies are considerably limited. However, in the case of surface energy/water balance studies, the determination of the amount of water content, both in the soil and in the plants, is a major component in all modeling approaches. As the information about water content is present in the SAR signal, then the role of SAR data in studies where water content is to be determined becomes clearly predominant. Another situation where the role of SAR data becomes dominant over other remote sensing systems is the case of dense canopies. Because of the penetration capabilities of microwave data, which is especially superior as compared to optical data, information about the canopy as a whole and even the underlying soil is contained in the SAR data, while only the top canopy provides the information content in the case of optical data. In the case of relatively dense canopies, as has been demonstrated in this study, such different penetration capabilities provide very different results in terms of the derived total canopy water content, for instance. However, although all such capabilities are well known, unfortunately there are also well known limitations. Apart from calibration-related aspects (that we will not consider in this study), and apart from other intrinsic problems (like image noise, topographic corrections, etc.) which also significantly affect the derived results, we will concentrate on the problem of extracting information from the data. Even at this level, methods are still not fully well established, especially over vegetation-covered areas. In this paper, an algorithm is described which allows derivation of three fundamental parameters from SAR data: soil moisture, soil roughness and canopy water content, accounting for the effects of vegetation cover by using optical (Landsat) data as auxiliary. Capabilities and limitations of the data and algorithms are discussed, as well as possibilities to use these data in energy/water balance modeling studies. All the data used in this study were acquired as part of the Intensive Observation Period in June-July 1991 (European Multisensor Aircraft Campaign-91), as part of the European Field Experiment in a Desertification- threatened Area (EFEDA), a European contribution to the global-change research sponsored by the IGBP program (Bolle et al., 1993).

Moreno, Jose F.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Using Model-Based Reasoning for Autonomous Instrument Operation

Multiprobe missions are an important part of NASA's future: Cluster, Magnetospheric Multi Scale, Global Electrodynamics and Magnetospheric Constellation are representatives from the Sun-Earth Connections Theme. To make such missions robust, reliable, and affordable, ideally the many spacecraft of a constellation must be at least as easy to operate as one spacecraft is today. To support this need for scalability, science instrumentation must become increasingly easy to operate, even as this same instrumentation becomes more capable and advanced. Communication and control resources will be at a premium for future instruments. Many missions will be out of contact with ground operators for extended periods either to reduce operations cost or because of orbits that limit communication to weekly perigee transits. Autonomous capability is necessary if such missions are to effectively achieve their operational objectives. An autonomous system is one that acts given its situation in a mission appropriate manner without external direction to achieve mission goals. To achieve this capability autonomy must be built into the system through judicious design or through a built-in intelligence that recognizes system state and manages system response. To recognize desired or undesired system states, the system must have an implicit or explicit understanding of its expected states given its history and self observations. The systems we are concerned with, science instruments, can have stringent requirements for system state knowledge in addition to requirements driven by health and safety concerns. Without accurate knowledge of the system state, the usefulness of the science instrument may be severely limited. At the same time, health and safety concerns often lead to overly conservative instrument operations further reducing the effectiveness of the instrument. These requirements, coupled with overall mission requirements including lack of communication opportunities and tolerance of environmental hazards, frame the problem of constructing autonomous science instruments. we are developing a model of the Low Energy Neutral Atom instrument (LENA) that is currently flying on board the Imager for Magnetosphere-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft. LENA is a particle detector that uses high voltage electrostatic optics and time-of-flight mass spectrometry to image neutral atom emissions from the denser regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. As with most spacecraft borne science instruments, phenomena in addition to neutral atoms are detected by LENA. Solar radiation and energetic particles from Earth's radiation belts are of particular concern because they may help generate currents that may compromise LENA's long term performance. An explicit model of the instrument response has been constructed and is currently in use on board IMAGE to dynamically adapt LENA to the presence or absence of energetic background radiations. The components of LENA are common in space science instrumentation, and lessons learned by modelling this system may be applied to other instruments. This work demonstrates that a model-based approach can be used to enhance science instrument effectiveness. Our future work involves the extension of these methods to cover more aspects of LENA operation and the generalization to other space science instrumentation.

Johnson, Mike↗