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DOE OSTI2012

IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work Package 2

Over the past 30 years, wind power has become a mainstream source of electricity generation around the world. However, the future of wind power will depend a great deal on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost of energy reductions. In this summary report, developed as part of the International Energy Agency Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26, titled 'The Cost of Wind Energy,' we provide a review of historical costs, evaluate near-term market trends, review the methods used to estimate long-term cost trajectories, and summarize the range of costs projected for onshore wind energy across an array of forward-looking studies and scenarios. We also highlight the influence of high-level market variables on both past and future wind energy costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Mastering Uncertainty and Risk at Multiple Time Scales in the Future Electrical Grid

Today's electrical grids enjoy a relatively clean separation of spatio-temporal scales yielding a compartmentalization of grid design, optimization, control and risk assessment allowing for the use of conventional mathematical tools within each area. In contrast, the future grid will incorporate time-intermittent renewable generation, operate via faster electrical markets, and tap the latent control capability at finer grid modeling scales; creating a fundamentally new set of couplings across spatiotemporal scales and requiring revolutionary advances in mathematics techniques to bridge these scales. One example is found in decade-scale grid expansion planning in which today's algorithms assume accurate load forecasts and well-controlled generation. Incorporating intermittent renewable generation creates fluctuating network flows at the hourly time scale, inherently linking the ability of a transmission line to deliver electrical power to hourly operational decisions. New operations-based planning algorithms are required, creating new mathematical challenges. Spatio-temporal scales are also crossed when the future grid's minute-scale fluctuations in network flows (due to intermittent generation) create a disordered state upon which second-scale transient grid dynamics propagate effectively invalidating today's on-line dynamic stability analyses. Addressing this challenge requires new on-line algorithms that use large data streams from new grid sensing technologies to physically aggregate across many spatial scales to create responsive, data-driven dynamic models. Here, we sketch the mathematical foundations of these problems and potential solutions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2012

Argonne Leadership Computing Facility 2011 annual report: Shaping future supercomputing

The ALCF's Early Science Program aims to prepare key applications for the architecture and scale of Mira and to solidify libraries and infrastructure that will pave the way for other future production applications. Two billion core-hours have been allocated to 16 Early Science projects on Mira. The projects, in addition to promising delivery of exciting new science, are all based on state-of-the-art, petascale, parallel applications. The project teams, in collaboration with ALCF staff and IBM, have undertaken intensive efforts to adapt their software to take advantage of Mira's Blue Gene/Q architecture, which, in a number of ways, is a precursor to future high-performance-computing architecture. The Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) enables transformative science that solves some of the most difficult challenges in biology, chemistry, energy, climate, materials, physics, and other scientific realms. Users partnering with ALCF staff have reached research milestones previously unattainable, due to the ALCF's world-class supercomputing resources and expertise in computation science. In 2011, the ALCF's commitment to providing outstanding science and leadership-class resources was honored with several prestigious awards. Research on multiscale brain blood flow simulations was named a Gordon Bell Prize finalist. Intrepid, the ALCF's BG/P system, ranked No. 1 on the Graph 500 list for the second consecutive year. The next-generation BG/Q prototype again topped the Green500 list. Skilled experts at the ALCF enable researchers to conduct breakthrough science on the Blue Gene system in key ways. The Catalyst Team matches project PIs with experienced computational scientists to maximize and accelerate research in their specific scientific domains. The Performance Engineering Team facilitates the effective use of applications on the Blue Gene system by assessing and improving the algorithms used by applications and the techniques used to implement those algorithms. The Data Analytics and Visualization Team lends expertise in tools and methods for high-performance, post-processing of large datasets, interactive data exploration, batch visualization, and production visualization. The Operations Team ensures that system hardware and software work reliably and optimally; system tools are matched to the unique system architectures and scale of ALCF resources; the entire system software stack works smoothly together; and I/O performance issues, bug fixes, and requests for system software are addressed. The User Services and Outreach Team offers frontline services and support to existing and potential ALCF users. The team also provides marketing and outreach to users, DOE, and the broader community.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Mountain Home Air Force Base, Idaho Geothermal Resource Assessment and Future Recommendations

The U.S. Air Force is facing a number of challenges as it moves into the future, one of the biggest being how to provide safe and secure energy to support base operations. A team of scientists and engineers met at Mountain Home Air Force Base in early 2011 near Boise, Idaho, to discuss the possibility of exploring for geothermal resources under the base. The team identified that there was a reasonable potential for geothermal resources based on data from an existing well. In addition, a regional gravity map helped identify several possible locations for drilling a new well. The team identified several possible sources of funding for this well—the most logical being to use U.S. Department of Energy funds to drill the upper half of the well and U.S. Air Force funds to drill the bottom half of the well. The well was designed as a slimhole well in accordance with State of Idaho Department of Water Resources rules and regulations. Drilling operations commenced at the Mountain Home site in July of 2011 and were completed in January of 2012. Temperatures increased gradually, especially below a depth of 2000 ft. Temperatures increased more rapidly below a depth of 5500 ft. The bottom of the well is at 5976 ft, where a temperature of about 140°C was recorded. The well flowed artesian from a depth below 5600 ft, until it was plugged off with drilling mud. Core samples were collected from the well and are being analyzed to help understand permeability at depth. Additional tests using a televiewer system will be run to evaluate orientation and directions at fractures, especially in the production zone. A final report on the well exploitation will be forthcoming later this year. The Air Force will use it to evaluate the geothermal resource potential for future private development options at Mountain Home Air Force Base.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards: An Assessment of Regional Supply and Demand Conditions Affecting the Future of Renewable Energy in the West; Report and Executive Summary

This study assesses the outlook for utility-scale renewable energy development in the West once states have met their renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements. In the West, the last state RPS culminates in 2025, so the analysis uses 2025 as a transition point on the timeline of RE development. Most western states appear to be on track to meet their final requirements, relying primarily on renewable resources located relatively close to the customers being served. What happens next depends on several factors including trends in the supply and price of natural gas, greenhouse gas and other environmental regulations, consumer preferences, technological breakthroughs, and future public policies and regulations. Changes in any one of these factors could make future renewable energy options more or less attractive.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Development of Large Area Gas Electron Multiplier Detector and Its Application to a Digital Hadron Calorimeter for Future Collider Experiments

The UTA High Energy Physics Group conducted generic detector development based on large area, very thin and high sensitivity gas detector using gas electron multiplier (GEM) technology. This is in preparation for a use as a sensitive medium for sampling calorimeters in future collider experiments at the Energy Frontier as well as part of the tracking detector in Intensity Frontier experiments. We also have been monitoring the long term behavior of one of the prototype detectors (30cmx30cm) read out by the SLAC-developed 13-bit KPiX analog chip over three years and have made presentations of results at various APS meetings. While the important next step was the development of large area (1m x 1m) GEM planes, we also have looked into opportunities of applying this technology to precision tracking detectors to significantly improve the performance of the Range Stack detector for CP violation experiments and to provide an amplification layer for the liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber in the LBNE experiment. We have jointly developed 33cmx100cm large GEM foils with the CERN gas detector development group to construct 33cm x100cm unit chambers. Three of these unit chambers will be put together to form a 1m x 1m detector plane. Following characterization of one 33cmx100cm unit chamber prototype, a total of five 1m x 1m planes will be constructed and inserted into an existing 1m3 RPC DHCAL stack to test the performance of the new GEM DHCAL in particle beams. The large area GEM detector we planned to develop in this proposal not only gives an important option to DHCAL for future collider experiments but also the potential to expand its use to Intensity Frontier and Cosmic Frontier experiments as high efficiency, high amplification anode planes for liquid Argon time projection chambers. Finally, thanks to its sensitivity to X-rays and other neutral radiations and its light-weight characteristics, the large area GEM has a great potential for the use in medical imaging and homeland security, as well as satellite based astronomy experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Software-Based Challenges of Developing the Future Distribution Grid

The software that the utility industry currently uses may be insufficient to analyze the distribution grid as it rapidly modernizes to include active resources such as distributed generation, switch and voltage control, automation, and increasingly complex loads. Although planners and operators have traditionally viewed the distribution grid as a passive load, utilities and consultants increasingly need enhanced analysis that incorporates active distribution grid loads in order to ensure grid reliability. Numerous commercial and open-source tools are available for analyzing distribution grid systems. These tools vary in complexity from providing basic load-flow and capacity analysis under steady-state conditions to time-series analysis and even geographical representations of dynamic and transient events. The need for each type of analysis is not well understood in the industry, nor are the reasons that distribution analysis requires different techniques and tools both from those now available and from those used for transmission analysis. In addition, there is limited understanding of basic capability of the tools and how they should be practically applied to the evolving distribution system. The study reviews the features and state of the art capability of current tools, including usability and visualization, basic analysis functionality, advanced analysis including inverters, and renewable generation and load modeling. We also discuss the need for each type of distribution grid system analysis. In addition to reviewing basic functionality current models, we discuss dynamics and transient simulation in detail and draw conclusions about existing software?s ability to address the needs of the future distribution grid as well as the barriers to modernization of the distribution grid that are posed by the current state of software and model development. Among our conclusions are that accuracy, data transfer, and data processing abilities are key to future distribution grid modeling, and measured data sources are a key missing element . Modeling tools need to be calibrated based on measured grid data to validate their output in varied conditions such as high renewables penetration and rapidly changing topology. In addition, establishing a standardized data modeling format would enable users to transfer data among tools to take advantage of different analysis features. ?

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Electricity Bill Savings from Residential Photovoltaic Systems: Sensitivities to Changes in Future Electricity Market Conditions

Customer-sited photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States are often compensated at the customer’s underlying retail electricity rate through net metering. Calculations of the customer economics of PV, meanwhile, often assume that retail rate structures and PV compensation mechanisms will not change and that retail electricity prices will increase (or remain constant) over time, thereby also increasing (or keeping constant) the value of bill savings from PV. Given the multitude of potential changes to retail rates and PV compensation mechanisms in the future, however, understanding how such changes might impact the value of bill savings from PV is critical for policymakers, regulators, utilities, the solar industry, and potential PV owners, i.e., any stakeholder interested in understanding uncertainties in and potential changes to the long-term customer economics of PV. This scoping study investigates the impact of, and interactions among, three key sources of uncertainty in the future value of bill savings from customer-sited PV, focusing in particular on residential customers. These three sources of uncertainty are: changes to electricity market conditions that would affect retail electricity prices, changes to the types of retail rate structures available to residential customers with PV, and shifts away from standard net-metering toward other compensation mechanisms for residential PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Neutrino Oscillation Parameter Sensitivity in Future Long-Baseline Experiments

The study of neutrino interactions and propagation has produced evidence for physics beyond the standard model and promises to continue to shed light on rare phenomena. Since the discovery of neutrino oscillations in the late 1990s there have been rapid advances in establishing the three flavor paradigm of neutrino oscillations. The 2012 discovery of a large value for the last unmeasured missing angle has opened the way for future experiments to search for charge-parity symmetry violation in the lepton sector. This thesis presents an analysis of the future sensitivity to neutrino oscillations in the three flavor paradigm for the T2K, NO A, LBNE, and T2HK experiments. The theory of the three flavor paradigm is explained and the methods to use these theoretical predictions to design long baseline neutrino experiments are described. The sensitivity to the oscillation parameters for each experiment is presented with a particular focus on the search for CP violation and the measurement of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The variations of these sensitivities with statistical considerations and experimental design optimizations taken into account are explored. The effects of systematic uncertainties in the neutrino flux, interaction, and detection predictions are also considered by incorporating more advanced simulations inputs from the LBNE experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2012

The Future of Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States: Projected Spending and Savings to 2025

We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case. Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning. Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, with the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly. Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales). These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration’s most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast. However, the pathway that customer-funded efficiency programs ultimately take will depend on a series of key challenges and uncertainties associated both with the broader market and policy context and with the implementation and regulatory oversight of the energy efficiency programs themselves.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2012

WP2 IEA Wind Task 26:The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy

Over the past 30 years, wind power has become a mainstream source of electricity generation around the world. However, the future of wind power will depend a great deal on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost of energy reductions. This summary report, developed as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26, The Cost of Wind Energy, provides a review of historical costs, evaluates near-term market trends, reviews the methods used to estimate long-term cost trajectories, and summarizes the range of costs projected for onshore wind energy across an array of forward-looking studies and scenarios. It also highlights high-level market variables that have influenced wind energy costs in the past and are expected to do so into the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was clearly attributable to the conversion of a large amount of land to switchgrass. The Middle Lower Missouri River and Lower Missouri River were identified as hot regions. Further analysis identified four subbasins (10240002, 10230007, 10290402, and 10300200) as being the most vulnerable in terms of sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus loadings. Overall, results suggest that increasing the amount of switchgrass acreage in the hot spots should be considered to mitigate the nutrient loads. The study provides an analytical method to support stakeholders in making informed decisions that balance biofuel production and water sustainability.

land use change↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Guide to Designing Future Ground-based CMB Experiments

In this follow-up work to the High Energy Physics Community Summer Study 2013 (HEP CSS 2013, a.k.a. Snowmass), we explore the scientific capabilities of a future Stage-IV Cosmic Microwave Background polarization experiment (CMB-S4) under various assumptions on detector count, resolution, and sky coverage. We use the Fisher matrix technique to calculate the expected uncertainties in cosmological parameters in vΛCDM that are especially relevant to the physics of fundamental interactions, including neutrino masses, effective number of relativistic species, dark-energy equation of state, dark-matter annihilation, and inflationary parameters. To further chart the landscape of future cosmology probes, we include forecasted results from the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) signal as measured by DESI to constrain parameters that would benefit from low redshift information. We find the following best 1-σ constraints: σ(M v ) = 15 meV, σ(N eff ) = 0.0156, Dark energy Figure of Merit = 303, σ(p ann ) = 0.00588 x 3 x 10 -26 cm 3 /s/GeV, σ( Ω K ) = 0.00074, σ(n s ) = 0.00110, σ( α s ) = 0.00145, and σ(r) = 0.00009. We also detail the dependences of the parameter constraints on detector count, resolution, and sky coverage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Overview of Existing and Future Residential Use Cases for Connected Thermostats

This paper is intended to help inform future technology deployment opportunities for connected thermostats (CTs), based on investigation and review of the U.S. residential housing and CT markets, as well as existing, emerging, and future use cases for CT hardware and CT-generated data. The CT market has experienced tremendous growth over the last 5 years—both in terms of the number of units sold and the number of firms offering competing products—and can be characterized by its rapid pace of technological innovation. Despite many assuming CTs would become powerful tools for increasing comfort while saving energy, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about the actual energy and cost savings that are likely to be realized from deployment of CTs, particularly under different conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Overview of Existing and Future Residential Use Cases for Connected Thermostats

This paper is intended to help inform future technology deployment opportunities for connected thermostats (CTs), based on investigation and review of the U.S. residential housing and CT markets, as well as existing, emerging, and future use cases for CT hardware and CT-generated data. The CT market has experienced tremendous growth over the last five years — both in terms of the number of units sold and the number of firms offering competing products — and can be characterized by its rapid pace of technological innovation. Despite many assuming CTs would become powerful tools for increasing comfort while saving energy, there remains a great deal of uncertainty about the actual energy and cost savings that are likely to be realized from deployment of CTs, particularly under different conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

2025 California Demand Response Potential Study - Charting California’s Demand Response Future. Final Report on Phase 2 Results

California’s legislative and regulatory goals for renewable energy are changing the power grid’s dynamics. Increased variable generation resource penetration connected to the bulk power system, as well as, distributed energy resources (DERs) connected to the distribution system affect the grid’s reliable operation over many different time scales (e.g., days to hours to minutes to seconds). As the state continues this transition, it will require careful planning to ensure resources with the right characteristics are available to meet changing grid management needs. Demand response (DR) has the potential to provide important resources for keeping the electricity grid stable and efficient, to defer upgrades to generation, transmission and distribution systems, and to deliver customer economic benefits. This study estimates the potential size and cost of future DR resources for California’s three investor-owned utilities (IOUs): Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). Our goal is to provide data-driven insights as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) evaluates how to enhance DR’s role in meeting California’s resource planning needs and operational requirements. We address two fundamental questions: 1. What cost-competitive DR service types will meet California’s future grid needs as it moves towards clean energy and advanced infrastructure? 2. What is the size and cost of the expected resource base for the DR service types?

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

The International Science and Technology Center: Product of the Past or Prototype for the Future?

The International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) – originally formed in the early 1990s to address the potential issue of “brain drain” from underemployed and underpaid nuclear weapons scientists, engineers, and technicians in the former Soviet Union – still exists to this day. Through more than two decades of changing circumstances and worldviews, the ISTC has had to reorganize, move countries, streamline its internal processes, and broaden its scope of work in an attempt to remain a relevant and useful tool for international science cooperation in the 21st century. Critics see it as a product of the past in a modern world that no longer requires the redirection of former Soviet scientists, while proponents argue that the established networks and trust from the international community that the ISTC has developed throughout its history make it a critical and useful tool for current and future science cooperation and threat reduction. Through historical and budget analysis, this paper hopes to answer the following questions: (1) how has the ISTC evolved throughout its history to become what it considers to be a useful tool for the future of science cooperation and threat reduction, and (2) if the ISTC still serves a purpose, what is that purpose, and how can they continue to adapt and evolve to better serve that purpose?

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2018

2017 Algae Harmonization Study: Evaluating the Potential for Future Algal Biofuel Costs, Sustainability, and Resource Assessment from Harmonized Modeling

To present a more unified picture of the long-term future potential for algal biofuels and the goals that must be met to reach that potential, four algae modeling groups collaborated to harmonize respective models for resource assessment (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), techno-economic analysis (National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), and life-cycle analysis (Argonne National Laboratory) of algal biomass production and conversion processes. In contrast to prior harmonization studies that this group has previously conducted, which focused on establishing benchmarks attributed to current performance at the time, the primary intent of the present harmonization study was to project these models to forward-looking targets that must be achieved to reduce fuel costs and greenhouse gas emission profiles to Bioenergy Technologies Office target levels, subject to specific location constraints imposed by resource assessment modeling and thus national-scale fuel output potential (i.e., billion gallons gasoline equivalent per year, or BGGE/yr). In all, while based on a number of aspirational goals not yet demonstrated but plausible to achieve over coming years, the harmonized outputs indicate promising potential for algal biofuels to make a significant contribution to the U.S. fuels market, based on substantial quantities of biomass (104-235 MM tons/yr) projected to be available at costs below 700/ton (generally below 500/ton for freshwater cultivation). While these costs are still significantly higher than terrestrial biomass cost targets, the propensity for capturing high fuel yields and/or high-value tailored coproducts from algal biomass is shown here to provide plausible paths to achieve future targets for cost and sustainability metrics at meaningful volumes.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗