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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 955 records · Page 53
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Recent developments in the production of liquid fuels via catalytic conversion of microalgae: experiments and simulations

Due to continuing high demand, depletion of non-renewable resources and increasing concerns about climate change, the use of fossil fuel-derived transportation fuels faces relentless challenges both from a world markets and an environmental perspective. The production of renewable transportation fuel from microalgae continues to attract much attention because of its potential for fast growth rates, high oil content, ability to grow in unconventional scenarios, and inherent carbon neutrality. Moreover, the use of microalgae would minimize ‘‘food versus fuel’’ concerns associated with several biomass strategies, as microalgae do not compete with food crops in the food chain. This paper reviews the progress of recent research on the production of transportation fuels via homogeneous and heterogeneous catalytic conversions of microalgae. This review also describes the development of tools that may allow for a more fundamental understanding of catalyst selection and conversion processes using computational modelling. The catalytic conversion reaction pathways that have been investigated are fully discussed based on both experimental and theoretical approaches. Finally, this work makes several projections for the potential of various thermocatalytic pathways to produce alternative transportation fuels from algae, and identifies key areas where the authors feel that computational modelling should be directed to elucidate key information to optimize the process.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A comparative technoeconomic analysis of renewable hydrogen production using solar energy

A technoeconomic analysis of photoelectrochemical (PEC) and photovoltaic-electrolytic (PV-E) solar-hydrogen production of 10 000 kg H 2 day -1 (3.65 kilotons per year) was performed to assess the economics of each technology, and to provide a basis for comparison between these technologies as well as within the broader energy landscape. Two PEC systems, differentiated primarily by the extent of solar concentration (unconcentrated and 10× concentrated) and two PV-E systems, differentiated by the degree of grid connectivity (unconnected and grid supplemented), were analyzed. In each case, a base-case system that used established designs and materials was compared to prospective systems that might be envisioned and developed in the future with the goal of achieving substantially lower overall system costs. With identical overall plant efficiencies of 9.8%, the unconcentrated PEC and non-grid connected PV-E system base-case capital expenses for the rated capacity of 3.65 kilotons H 2 per year were 205 dollars MM (293 dollars per m 2 of solar collection area (m S -2 ), 14.7 W H2,P -1 ) and 260 dollars MM ($371 m S -2 , 18.8 dollars W H2,P -1 ), respectively. The untaxed, plant-gate levelized costs for the hydrogen product (LCH) were $11.4 kg -1 and 12.1 dollars kg -1 for the base-case PEC and PV-E systems, respectively. The 10× concentrated PEC base-case system capital cost was 160 dollars MM (428 dollars m S -2 , 11.5 dollars W H2,P -1 ) and for an efficiency of 20% the LCH was 9.2 kg -1 . Likewise, the grid supplemented base-case PV-E system capital cost was 66 dollars MM (441 dollars m S -2 , 11.5 dollars W H2,P -1 ), and with solar-to-hydrogen and grid electrolysis system efficiencies of 9.8% and 61%, respectively, the LCH was 6.1 dollars kg -1 . As a benchmark, a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) based grid-connected electrolysis system was analyzed. Assuming a system efficiency of 61% and a grid electricity cost of $0.07 kWh -1 , the LCH was $5.5 kg -1 . A sensitivity analysis indicated that, relative to the base-case, increases in the system efficiency could effect the greatest cost reductions for all systems, due to the areal dependencies of many of the components. The balance-of-systems (BoS) costs were the largest factor in differentiating the PEC and PV-E systems. No single or combination of technical advancements based on currently demonstrated technology can provide sufficient cost reductions to allow solar hydrogen to directly compete on a levelized cost basis with hydrogen produced from fossil energy. Specifically, a cost of CO 2 greater than ~$800 dollars (ton CO 2 ) -1 was estimated to be necessary for base-case PEC hydrogen to reach price parity with hydrogen derived from steam reforming of methane priced at $12 GJ -1 ($1.39 (kg H 2 ) -1 ). A comparison with low CO 2 and CO 2 -neutral energy sources indicated that base-case PEC hydrogen is not currently cost-competitive with electrolysis using electricity supplied by nuclear power or from fossil-fuels in conjunction with carbon capture and storage. Solar electricity production and storage using either batteries or PEC hydrogen technologies are currently an order of magnitude greater in cost than electricity prices with no clear advantage to either battery or hydrogen storage as of yet. Significant advances in PEC technology performance and system cost reductions are necessary to enable cost-effective PEC-derived solar hydrogen for use in scalable grid-storage applications as well as for use as a chemical feedstock precursor to CO 2 -neutral high energy-density transportation fuels. Hence such applications are an opportunity for foundational research to contribute to the development of disruptive approaches to solar fuels generation systems that can offer higher performance at much lower cost than is provided by current embodiments of solar fuels generators. Efforts to directly reduce CO 2 photoelectrochemically or electrochemically could potentially produce products with higher value than hydrogen, but many, as yet unmet, challenges include catalytic efficiency and selectivity, and CO 2 mass transport rates and feedstock cost. Major breakthroughs are required to obtain viable economic costs for solar hydrogen production, but the barriers to achieve cost-competitiveness with existing large-scale thermochemical processes for CO 2 reduction are even greater.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Life cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of ammonia production from renewable resources and industrial by-products

Conventionally, ammonia is produced from natural gas via steam methane reforming (SMR), water-gas shift reaction, and the Haber–Bosch process. The process uses fossil natural gas, which leads to 2.6 metric tons of life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per metric ton of ammonia produced. With ammonia being the second most produced chemical in the world, its production accounts for approximately 2% of worldwide fossil energy use and generates over 420 million tons of CO 2 annually. To reduce its carbon intensity, ammonia synthesis relying on renewable energy or utilizing by-products from industrial processes is of interest. In this work, we conduct a life cycle analysis of conventional and alternative ammonia production pathways by tracking energy use and emissions in all conversion stages, from the primary material and energy resources to the ammonia plant gates. Of all the alternative pathways, obtaining N 2 from cryogenic distillation and H 2 from low-temperature electrolysis using renewable electricity has the lowest cradle-to-plant-gate GHG emissions, representing a 91% decrease from the conventional SMR pathway.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sustainable energy and fuels from biomass: a review focusing on hydrothermal biomass processing

Fossil fuels are being replaced with renewable energy resources (biomass and biomass waste, solar, geothermal, wind, etc.) to ensure sustainable development, reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, address environmental challenges including climate change. Today, biomass produces 5 × 10 19 kJ of energy/year, which corresponds to 10% of the annual global energy consumption. Considering the variety of biomass resources, this value is predicted to reach 150 × 10 19 kJ by 2050. Biomass may become even more important for use as an energy resource and chemical raw material in the 21st century. Hydrothermal biomass conversion stands out as a promising and alternative technology. Methods such as traditional gasification and pyrolysis require dry biomass. Hydrothermal techniques have been developed to eliminate the cost and time required for drying biomass. The purpose of this process is to decompose biomass with a high moisture content into small molecules and reduce its oxygen content to obtain liquid fuels or valuable chemicals. Finally, this review presents the current and future state of energy, energy sources, biomass properties and biomass conversion technologies with a focus on hydrothermal technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ethanol to diesel: a sustainable alternative for the heavy-duty transportation sector

The combustion of middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) is responsible for the emission of more than 2 GTon of CO 2 per year worldwide. While sustainable alternatives exist for gasoline and jet fuel, we still lack sustainable alternatives for diesel. This fact is especially relevant if we consider that electrification of sectors where diesel is used is challenging. One sustainable approach for diesel production is the catalytic upgrading of ethanol. While most work in this field has focused on the dehydration/oligomerization of ethanol, this approach is limited to producing fuels that have a high degree of branching and low cetane number. Another approach is the sequential use of ethanol Guerbet coupling, leading to higher alcohols, followed by etherification, leading to large ethers which, importantly, result in a product with high cetane number. In this work, we explore the catalytic upgrading of ethanol into diesel following an approach based on the initial Guerbet coupling of ethanol followed by etherification. The results presented are a collaborative and synergic effort among process and systems engineers, experimentalist in the area of catalysis, and fuel property modelers. Here, we demonstrate experimentally the feasibility of upgrading ethanol into a diesel fuel with properties that surpass its fossil counterpart. The diesel produced has a predicted cetane number of ~70 and outstanding cold flow properties, while maintaining other properties (viscosity, density, and flash point) within expected ranges. A technoeconomic analysis performed based on a detailed biorefinery model shows that the MFSP is ~5.89$ per Gal in 2021 dollars when lignocellulosic ethanol is used, with the most relevant economic driver the cost of the ethanol feedstock. The upgrading process can be performed with a net energy gain (EROI = 1.49 > 1). An LCA analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reveals that the use of lignocellulosic ethanol may lead to more than 50% reduction in GHG emissions compared to fossil diesel. Depending on the CO 2 emissions associated with the production of ethanol we show that in some instances the production of carbon neutral diesel fuel is possible.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep decarbonization framework for the United States economy – a sector, sub-sector, and end-use based approach

Achieving the United States' target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require technological transformations and energy sector mitigation. To understand the role of dynamically evolving technologies, identify synergies and dissonance and the effect of allocating limited low-carbon biomass resources in decarbonizing the U.S. economy, we developed the Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model. A Life Cycle Assessment based approach is implemented considering the U.S. economy as the functional unit, to estimate greenhouse gas mitigation potential for projected energy demand based on several sector-level and cross-sectoral decarbonization pathways. Direct and supply-chain emissions are accounted, resulting from changes in patterns of energy generation and consumption, technology breakthroughs, and reductions in fugitive emissions over time at the granularity of economic sectors, sub-sectors, and end-use. Decarbonization strategies are implemented over a reference case developed using Energy Information Administration (EIA AEO) projection of economic activities for 2020–2050. Based on the considered scenarios, 80–90% economy-wide decarbonization relative to the 2020 reference case is projected. Electrification, low-carbon fuels, and reduction of fugitive emissions play the most significant role to decarbonization. The majority of the remaining emissions are accounted to the supply-chain and end-use emissions from natural gas and diesel fossil-based fuels in heavy duty transportation and heavy industries, highlighting the need for developing low-carbon and carbon-negative alternatives to mitigate those fossil-based carbon emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scalable electrified cementitious materials production and recycling

The production of Portland cement, the industry-standard cement, contributes ~8% of global CO 2 emissions through fossil-fuel heating and decomposition of limestone (the primary cement raw material). Decarbonization, e.g., via direct electrification, of this 200-year-old liming routine is extremely challenging at the industry scale. We propose a scalable electrochemical decarbonization approach to circumvent the limestone use by switching to carbon-free calcium silicates from abundant minerals and recycled concrete. Water electrolysis produces protons and hydroxides to drive a pH gradient that accelerates Ca 2+ ion leaching from calcium silicates and captures atmospheric CO 2 to form carbon-negative CaCO 3 , which serves as the feedstock for cement manufacturing or as the carbon-mineralized product for cement substitution with permanent carbon storage. Value-added co-products amorphous silica and green H 2 further enhance cement performance and supplant fossil fuels for net-zero transition, respectively. The products readily meet present-day regulatory standards and demands, and the approach readily synergizes with business-as-usual cement manufacturing and concrete construction, which are important for upscaling and structural safety, promising ready reception by the public and industries. Blended Portland cement produced through our approach with carbon-negative CaCO 3 and silica demonstrates enhanced resilience and achieves carbon neutrality or negativity when incorporating storage or circulation of CO 2 from cement plant flue gas, respectively. This low-cost, electrochemical cement production approach using abundant ubiquitous raw materials enables electrification, transition to clean fuel, and decarbonization at a gigaton scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aliphatic Amines from Waste Polyolefins by Tandem Pyrolysis, Hydroformylation, and Reductive Amination

Pyrolysis of waste plastics can produce a product mixture with a high concentration of olefins (>50 wt%). The olefins, as building blocks in the petroleum industry, are potential precursors for valuable commodity chemicals with higher values (>$2000 per ton). In this work, we produce aldehydes by hydroformylation of the olefins present in pyrolysis oil from colored post-consumer recycled high-density polyethylene (PCR-HDPE). The obtained aldehydes in the oil are then converted into aliphatic amines via reductive amination with a Ru/C catalyst. The aminated oil was characterized by multiple analytical chemistry techniques including elemental analysis, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, high-resolution liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry with a Polyarc flame ionization detector. The concentration of metals in the PCR-HDPE and oil changes during the tandem processes, showing limited effects of these elements (e.g., Al, Ca, Fe, Mg, Ti, Zn) on hydroformylation and reductive amination. Additionally, we demonstrated that reductive amination of aldehydes with varied carbon numbers and branching properties can be achieved in the presence of a complex mixture, including paraffins and aromatics. The results indicate that waste plastics have the potential to serve as a renewable source for mono and di aliphatic amines, thereby diminishing reliance on fossil feedstocks as the current primary amine source.

aliphatic amines↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determinants of CO{sub 2} emissions in ASEAN countries using energy and mining indicators

Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is the main greenhouse gas emitted from human activities. Industrial revolution is one of the triggers to accelerate the quantity of CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere which lead to undesirable changes in the cycle of carbon. Like China and United States which are affected by the economic development growth, the atmospheric CO{sub 2} level in ASEAN countries is expected to be higher from year to year. This study focuses on energy and mining indicators, namely alternative and nuclear energy, energy production, combustible renewables and waste, fossil fuel energy consumption and the pump price for diesel fuel that contribute to CO{sub 2} emissions. Six ASEAN countries were examined from 1970 to 2010 using panel data approach. The result shows that model of cross section-fixed effect is the most appropriate model with the value of R-squared is about 86%. Energy production and fossil fuel energy consumption are found to be significantly influenced to CO{sub 2} emissions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Atmospheric evidence for a global secular increase in carbon isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis

First, a decrease in the 13 C/ 12 C ratio of atmospheric CO 2 has been documented by direct observations since 1978 and from ice core measurements since the industrial revolution. This decrease, known as the 13 C-Suess effect, is driven primarily by the input of fossil fuel-derived CO 2 but is also sensitive to land and ocean carbon cycling and uptake. Using updated records, we show that no plausible combination of sources and sinks of CO 2 from fossil fuel, land, and oceans can explain the observed 13 C-Suess effect unless an increase has occurred in the 13 C/ 12 C isotopic discrimination of land photosynthesis. A trend toward greater discrimination under higher CO 2 levels is broadly consistent with tree ring studies over the past century, with field and chamber experiments, and with geological records of C 3 plants at times of altered atmospheric CO 2 , but increasing discrimination has not previously been included in studies of long-term atmospheric 13 C/ 12 C measurements. In our paper, we further show that the inferred discrimination increase of 0.014 ± 0.007‰ ppm -1 is largely explained by photorespiratory and mesophyll effects. This result implies that, at the global scale, land plants have regulated their stomatal conductance so as to allow the CO 2 partial pressure within stomatal cavities and their intrinsic water use efficiency to increase in nearly constant proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Technoeconomic Opportunities in Automation for Nuclear Microreactors

Achieving full decarbonization of all economic sectors remains a challenge, especially in niche markets. For example, remote communities and industrial or mining activities detached from the main electric grid heavily rely on fossil fuels, similar to urban and industrial microgrids with combined heat and power needs. A combination of renewables and energy storage is often not suitable due to cost, reliability, intermittency, and large storage requirements. Small nuclear reactors with a flexible purpose could serve these applications. Microreactors (MR) are a class of reactors that are compact, factory manufactured, transportable, and self-regulating. Typically, they generate much less power than their large reactor counterparts. The main advantages of microreactors include the versatile nature of the energy produced, the reliability of supply, and freedom from having to transport and store large quantities of fuels on-site, coupled with the absence of dependence on an electrical grid. A strong business case is needed to move from the microreactor prototype to the commercialization phase. In fact, fossil fuels are still relatively inexpensive, and in the near term, carbon credits will be available to virtually compensate for emissions. For microreactors, one of the main costs in operation and maintenance (O&M) is their staffing levels. In this study, we investigate how to optimize the number (and thus the cost) of workers, moving from a traditional, fully manned, on-site personnel approach to an unmanned, remote personnel approach. We examine four different staffing models that can be implemented as the technology matures and evolves. We estimate the staffing needs of each model and build a business case to justify the substitution of on-site personnel with adequate technologies. To do so, we propose a cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from automating O&M activities. The model accounts for both the reduction in cost derived from the reduced number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) employees and the increase in cost derived from the need to buy new control hardware as needed. Applying the cost model that we created to different scenarios, an on-site O&M cost reduction exceeding 80% can be expected. Additionally, we found that it is more impactful to focus on automating routine O&M tasks rather than attempting to automate transient management (shutdowns, restarts, monitoring condition deviations). In fact, transients typically account for less than 1% of the total FTE time spent on the reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

WHAT IS THE SHELL AROUND R CORONAE BOREALIS?

The hydrogen-deficient, carbon-rich R Coronae Borealis (RCB) stars are known for being prolific producers of dust which causes their large iconic declines in brightness. Several RCB stars, including R Coronae Borealis (R CrB), itself, have large extended dust shells seen in the far-infrared. The origin of these shells is uncertain but they may give us clues to the evolution of the RCB stars. The shells could form in three possible ways. (1) They are fossil Planetary Nebula (PN) shells, which would exist if RCB stars are the result of a final, helium-shell flash, (2) they are material left over from a white-dwarf (WD) merger event which formed the RCB stars, or (3) they are material lost from the star during the RCB phase. Arecibo 21 cm observations establish an upper limit on the column density of H I in the R CrB shell implying a maximum shell mass of ≲0.3 M{sub ☉}. A low-mass fossil PN shell is still a possible source of the shell although it may not contain enough dust. The mass of gas lost during a WD merger event will not condense enough dust to produce the observed shell, assuming a reasonable gas-to-dust ratio. The third scenario where the shell around R CrB has been produced during the star’s RCB phase seems most likely to produce the observed mass of dust and the observed size of the shell. But this means that R CrB has been in its RCB phase for ∼10{sup 4} years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2010

THE NATURE OF STARBURSTS. II. THE DURATION OF STARBURSTS IN DWARF GALAXIES

The starburst phenomenon can shape the evolution of the host galaxy and the surrounding intergalactic medium. The extent of the evolutionary impact is partly determined by the duration of the starburst, which has a direct correlation with both the amount of stellar feedback and the development of galactic winds, particularly for smaller mass dwarf systems. We measure the duration of starbursts in twenty nearby, ongoing, and 'fossil' starbursts in dwarf galaxies based on the recent star formation histories derived from resolved stellar population data obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope. Contrary to the shorter times of 3-10 Myr often cited, the starburst durations we measure range from 450to650 Myr in fifteen of the dwarf galaxies and up to 1.3 Gyr in four galaxies; these longer durations are comparable to or longer than the dynamical timescales for each system. The same feedback from massive stars that may quench the flickering star formation does not disrupt the overall burst event in our sample of galaxies. While five galaxies present fossil bursts, fifteen galaxies show ongoing bursts and thus the final durations may be longer than we report here for these systems. One galaxy shows a burst that has been ongoing for only 20 Myr; we are likely seeing the beginning of a burst event in this system. Using the duration of the starbursts, we calculate that the bursts deposited 10{sup 53.9}-10{sup 57.2} erg of energy into the interstellar medium through stellar winds and supernovae, and produced 3%-26% of the host galaxy's mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Some like it hot: Linking diffuse X-ray luminosity, baryonic mass, and star formation rate in compact groups of galaxies

We present an analysis of the diffuse X-ray emission in 19 compact groups (CGs) of galaxies observed with Chandra. The hottest, most X-ray luminous CGs agree well with the galaxy cluster X-ray scaling relations in L{sub X} -T and L{sub X} -σ, even in CGs where the hot gas is associated with only the brightest galaxy. Using Spitzer photometry, we compute stellar masses and classify Hickson CGs 19, 22, 40, and 42, and RSCGs 32, 44, and 86 as fossil groups using a new definition for fossil systems that includes a broader range of masses. We find that CGs with total stellar and H I masses ≳ 10{sup 11.3} M{sub ☉} are often X-ray luminous, while lower-mass CGs only sometimes exhibit faint, localized X-ray emission. Additionally, we compare the diffuse X-ray luminosity against both the total UV and 24 μm star formation rates of each CG and optical colors of the most massive galaxy in each of the CGs. The most X-ray luminous CGs have the lowest star formation rates, likely because there is no cold gas available for star formation, either because the majority of the baryons in these CGs are in stars or the X-ray halo, or due to gas stripping from the galaxies in CGs with hot halos. Finally, the optical colors that trace recent star formation histories of the most massive group galaxies do not correlate with the X-ray luminosities of the CGs, indicating that perhaps the current state of the X-ray halos is independent of the recent history of stellar mass assembly in the most massive galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Curved radio spectra of weak cluster shocks

In order to understand certain observed features of arc-like giant radio relics such as the rareness, uniform surface brightness, and curved integrated spectra, we explore a diffusive shock acceleration (DSA) model for radio relics in which a spherical shock impinges on a magnetized cloud containing fossil relativistic electrons. Toward this end, we perform DSA simulations of spherical shocks with the parameters relevant for the Sausage radio relic in cluster CIZA J2242.8+5301, and calculate the ensuing radio synchrotron emission from re-accelerated electrons. Three types of fossil electron populations are considered: a delta-function like population with the shock injection momentum, a power-law distribution, and a power law with an exponential cutoff. The surface brightness profile of the radio-emitting postshock region and the volume-integrated radio spectrum are calculated and compared with observations. We find that the observed width of the Sausage relic can be explained reasonably well by shocks with speed u{sub s}∼3×10{sup 3} km s{sup −1} and sonic Mach number M{sub s}∼3. These shocks produce curved radio spectra that steepen gradually over (0.1–10)ν{sub br} with a break frequency ν{sub br}∼1 GHz if the duration of electron acceleration is ∼60–80 Myr. However, the abrupt increase in the spectral index above ∼1.5 GHz observed in the Sausage relic seems to indicate that additional physical processes, other than radiative losses, operate for electrons with γ{sub e}≳10{sup 4}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2 -induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentration Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Vulnerabilities and opportunities at the nexus of electricity, water and climate

The articles in this special issue examine the critical nexus of electricity, water, and climate, emphasizing connections among resources; the prospect of increasing vulnerabilities of water resources and electricity generation in a changing climate; and the opportunities for research to inform integrated energy and water policy and management measures aimed at increasing resilience. Here, we characterize several major themes emerging from this research and highlight some of the uptake of this work in both scientific and public spheres. Underpinning much of this research is the recognition that water resources are expected to undergo substantial changes based on the global warming that results primarily from fossil energy-based carbon emissions. At the same time, the production of electricity from fossil fuels, nuclear power, and some renewable technologies (biomass, geothermal and concentrating solar power) can be highly water-intensive. Energy choices now and in the near future will have a major impact not just on the global climate, but also on water supplies and the resilience of energy systems that currently depend heavily on them.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗